← Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer
Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer
Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 8/15/25
00:44:26
Listen to Jim Cramer’s personal guide through the confusing jungle of Wall Street investing, navigating through opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind - to help you make money. Mad Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
MultiCare Representative
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- [00:32]
Capella University Representative
Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals, like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu.
- [01:26]
Jim Cramer
Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer Account Boomer Friends. I'm just trying to make you a little bit of money. My job, not just to entertain, but to educate, to do some teaching here. So call me 1873 CBC tweet Mitchell Kramer the stock market isn't always a friendly place. It can be volleyball. It can be painful. It can just be downright difficult. It's a house of pain. There are tons of of big picture problems that can derail any rally. Problems you might not have had any idea about until they hit us. And that's why I'm so adamant about trying to make you a better investor. I want to teach you the tricks of the trade so when the market turns negative, when it gets hostile, you will be prepared. You'll know what to do. The same tricks I teach you about constantly when you join the CMC Investing Club. Coming alive right here. I've spent my entire career analyzing the way stocks trade, searching for patterns of what's worked and what hasn't. And from those observations, I put together a set of rules. Rules that are designed to help protect you from the worst mistakes you can make in both good markets and bad. Rules that now make up the club's guide to investing. As much as I sometimes might seem like an unhinged lunatic, the truth is I'm all about discipline. You're going to make mistakes in this blue business. It's inevitable. But if you stick to your discipline, if you stick to the rules, that should help you minimize your losses and you will maximize your gains. Stick to the rules, people. So let's talk about discipline. I'm always telling you to buy best of breed companies, even if you have to pay up for their stocks. I use that phrase constantly. Best to breed, Best of breed. Why should you try to identify the stocks of the best run companies with the best prospects in each industry? Let me flip that on his head. Why is any best of breed even a question? When you're shopping for a car segment you buy best of breed or the best you can afford. We pay up for the highest quality brand because we know that a brand, a good brand, signifies reliability. It tells us that we can expect a higher level of service, a quality of ownership that will make your drives make your drive safer and easier for years to come. Nobody would ever set out to buy a worst of breed car. There are simpler ways to put your life danger. So why is it that so many people seem to feel differently about the stock market? Why are we drawn to the penny stocks that are constantly being talked up on social media? Or the endless low dollar meme stocks that get taken up each morning in some sort of shrewd pump and dump gambit? It's the same reason why people so so many people throw throw away their money buying garbage crypto currencies when they could buy a theorem or bitcoin, the better known, more vetted currencies. Many of us simply can't resist what we per a bargain emphasis by the way, on perceive. Here's the thing. If you go hunting for cheap stocks of low quality companies, it's more likely to lead to losses than to gains. Now let me be clear. I love bargain hunting. But I only want genuine bargains where the underlying merchandise is actually worth something. You know what's not a real bargain? Buying junk merchandise just because it seems to have a lower dollar price. That's why whenever I get asked about a low quality stock on the lightning round, for instance, you'll hear me say something like hey skee daddy, if you like, blah blah blah. You'll love Procter and Gamble because that's best of breed. Sure, P and G might not give you any short term pyrotechnics, but it's a kind of long term story that you can count on. It's an industry leader with a great balance sheet, long history of dividend boosts and the best brands on earth. Hey, you could do a lot worse than that. What makes a company best to be like the late great Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart once said about pornography. I know it when I see it. But to put it into words, when I say best of breed, I'm talking about well managed, high quality companies like a Procter and gamble. If you can get P and G on sale, great. If you can't get it on sale though, I'd still prefer you to pay up for something similarly great rather than try to pick up some penny stock or meme stock just because they seem cheap. Remember, at the end of the day there are very few few genuine bargains out there when it comes to second or third tier players. Their stocks may look cheaper than the top dogs, but that's because they deserve to be cheaper. The businesses are worth less. Don't worry about paying a higher price. Earnings multiple For a best of breed business, it may seem more expensive, but in addition to usually being the better investment, you're also buying peace of mind. For the past decade or so, Nvidia's always look like a super expensive stock, for instance on a price earnings basis, but it always turned out to be cheap when you look back at it, allowing to become one of the biggest winners of this generation, if not the biggest, because CEO Jensen Wong consistently delivers much higher than expected numbers. That's what it means to be best of breed. Now once you find yourself on a best of breed company, the kind of company with the story you believe in, I got another important rule for you. High quality companies represent value and giving up on value is a sin. They know nothing. I see so many people throwing in the towel on companies that have real assets and real worth just because their stocks aren't working right right here, right now. And it drives me nuts frankly. Really. Look, if patience is a virgin, if you have reason to believe in a business, don't dump its stock just because it's not getting any traction for the moment. You're not a hedge fund manager. You don't need your position to show a gain every quarter, every month, or even every day. You don't have investors who pull their money because one particular position is taking too long to pay off. So you can afford to wait for these stories to play themselves out. I say this because you will be tempted to sell even best of breed stocks. You may correctly identify value, but this market can make it very difficult to stick to your guns even with something you truly believe in. When you own a stock that's going down, you're going to feel compelled to give up on it. But in many cases, if you've done your homework and you have conviction in the underlying business, that urge to sell will be a mistake. Perhaps you should be buying and look, it happens the Best of us in 2016 I did this interview with Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple after Stock had plummeted from the split adjusted $31 to $23 in a fairly short period of time. Everybody was giving up on Apple. I looked at stock which was selling an incredibly low price earnings multiple. I looked at the customer loyalty, the service revenue stream and the cash position. I said, what the heck is the point of selling the stock of a company that makes the greatest products in history? That may sound like a no brainer, but there are tons of Apple skeptics out there constantly arguing, perhaps through the beloved iPhones, of course, that the company's best days are behind it. Presenting these surveys of Apple's component suppliers as evidence that the business is in decline. Time after time they've been proven wrong. Yet they just won't go away. Sure enough, telling you to buy Apple $22 turned out to be a fabulous call because the insane, insane amount of negativity gave you a wonderful opportunity to pick up the stock at a major discount. The key here is that Apple is a high quality company, a best of breed company. So when its stock goes down, you know that it's getting cheaper. Selling Apple $23, as so many of the so called great minds told you do. Well, that would have been a classic example of giving up on value and you would have missed one of the biggest moves ever. Oh, and no apologies from those who downgraded then, at least that I know of. And look, in late 2022, many people were tempted to make that same mistake with Nvidia as all things tech had gone through a miserable year. But I've learned my lesson from Apple. So we stuck with Nvidia saying own it, don't trade it. And the stock went on to rally more than 800% over the course of 2023 and 2024. Nvidia is my best pick ever. But there were times when you had to hold tight. There were whole commercials devoted to its demise. I say ill advised. Here's the bottom line. Don't be afraid to pay up for best of breed stocks. They may have higher price earnings multiples than the stocks of lower quality companies, but they're also much less likely to blow up in your face. The best of breed premium is worth every dollar. Oh, and once you find a company that's best to breed with a story you believe in, don't let the bear scare you away, even if it is temporarily broken. Patience is a virtue. Giving up on value is a sin. Jerry in Missouri. Jerry.
- [10:05]
Jerry (Caller)
Hey Jim, thanks for taking my call.
- [10:07]
Jim Cramer
Of course, Jerry. What's going on?
- [10:10]
Jerry (Caller)
Jim, I've never played Am I diversified with you because I think you'd reject my portfolio. Investment strategy is growth with profitable companies.
- [10:19]
Jim Cramer
I like that.
- [10:21]
Jerry (Caller)
My portfolio is mostly technology but I have it broken down into much greater detail. My investments are in tech, retail, sales, software, semiconductors, data center and advertising. All of my companies are the ones that are either in the trust or have been recommended by you.
- [10:39]
Jim Cramer
Yeah.
- [10:40]
Jerry (Caller)
Can you bless this strategy or should.
- [10:42]
Jim Cramer
I make a middle chain? I'm. Well, I'm in favor of having people having an index. I will bless it if you have an index fund side by side with it. But I want one stock that is definitively not tech. Tech is 26% of the S&P to 30%. So I get what you're trying to do. Give me one non tech stock and I am there with you two stocks if you're a little bit older than let's say if you're in your 50, 60s, 70s. Let's go to Catherine in Virginia. Catherine.
- [11:10]
Catherine (Caller)
Hey Jim, thanks for taking my call.
- [11:13]
Jim Cramer
Oh certainly. Catherine, what's going on?
- [11:15]
Catherine (Caller)
Okay, so you have mentioned a few times in your show how a P E ratio is a good indicator of whether a particular stock is a buy or sell. My question to you is which of a company's PE ratios would you consider most relevant in making an investing decision? Its current P E ratio for ratio ratio adjusted for earnings per share or may maybe something like a peg ratio.
- [11:44]
Jim Cramer
Well, no, I am going to say I'm a very traditionalist when it comes to evaluating stocks. I want you to do the PE ratio both next year and the year after. I don't care that much about this year. In any given year I care about what's called the out years because I want to be able to be in a stock like Nvidia because it has very good out year even though it looks expensive. Expensive near term. Thank you for that question. Don't be afraid to pay up for best of breed stocks and once you find them, don't let the bear scare you away. Patience is a virtue. Giving up on value is a sin. On Manvani Tonight I'm giving you my rules of the road from how to design a high quality portfolio to reacting smartly when the market crushes your stocks. So stay with Kramer.
- [12:32]
CNBC Announcer
Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow imKramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer Mad mentions. Send Jim an email to madmoneynbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743, CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
- [12:55]
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- [13:26]
Capella University Representative
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.edu CNBC Make It.
- [13:43]
CNBC Announcer
Online Course how to Build a Standout Personal Brand Three industry experts will show you how to create and grow your brand step by step.
- [13:50]
Jim Cramer
There's no time like now to start building your personal brand.
- [13:53]
CNBC Announcer
Register now@cnbcmakeit.com Personal Brand.
- [14:06]
Jim Cramer (continued commentary)
How can you.
- [14:06]
Jim Cramer
Keep track of a confusing market? Let me give you some advice that's rarely ever steered me wrong. There are two things I want you to watch. One macro big picture and one micro company specific. Let's start with the big picture so you don't know about this stuff. If you want to know where the stock market might be headed, keep your eyes on bonds. Look, I know the bond market is boring as all get out, but it's much larger than the stock market and more importantly, it's very important to the overall direction of stocks. Back in the day when I was running my old hedge fund, I'd always call in from the road the same way if I had to be away from my desk. I begin every phone conversation by saying where are the bonds? That's how much it mattered to me on a day to day basis. Yet stock market investors seemingly forget the bond market all the time. They Forgot it in 2000 even though the bond market was screaming. It told us the economy was softening right near the dot com peak. They forgot it when the Fed raised interest rates 17 times lockstep fashion in the lead up to the financial crisis, precipitating the worst downturn since the Great Depression. People paid little attention to bonds when interest rates peaked in 2022, even as it became the best time in years to buy the industrials and even the home builders. Look, it should never come as a surprise to you that long term interest rates are rising or falling. You simply must know what they're doing at all times Bonds can punch your portfolio in the face if you aren't paying attention. Hence the excessive focus on the yield curve. That's why I say don't forget bonds. Always keep those bond prices and interest rates in front of you if you want to know what might be happening in the future. When I was coming up at Goldman Sachs, I was trained to focus on bonds because bonds are the true competition stocks the competition I most fear. When short term interest rates, the ones set by the Fed, go sky high, you have to expect that the dividend stocks, the stocks of companies with high yields, will sell off because their dividends can't give you yields big enough to compete with their fixed income alternatives that are risk free. Unless of course they sell off big enough that they are once again legitimate competition. But who wants to endure horrible capital losses for measly 4 or 5 or 6% yield when long term interest rates rise? The one to watch is the yield on the 10 year US Treasury. Then you have to start being wary that the entire stock market might be worth less. It's simple. If the bond market competition gets more attractive, the stock market gets less attractive. This can be like a giant zero sum game. Of course you should be especially worried about rising long term rates caused by a pickup in inflation. Like we saw during the great bear market of 2022. Inflation eats away at the value of long dated assets like equities because their future earnings streams will have less purchasing power. That's especially true for growth stocks. Higher interest rates don't just make bonds more attractive. They also make it more expensive for banks to lend, putting a damper on the whole economy. For a long time we had an ideal environment for stocks. Low inflation and low interest rates. But then the pandemic hit and the world turned upside down with the worst inflation in 40 odd years. Which led to a hideous market wide meltdown as the Federal Reserve lowered the boom on us. Let me put this another way. This were basketball, I'd be saying that if you just watch the man with the ball, any stocking carrot name, and you don't watch the other teams doing on defense the bonds, there's no way you're going to get the basket. You can't, you just can't watch your favorite team. You have to watch the team they're playing against too. Makes sense, right? Stocks are always playing against bonds. Okay, what else do you need to watch out for on the micro level? Not the macro, but the micro level, the company specific one. You need to be very cautious when you see unexplained resignations by key executives. To put it bluntly, when the Chiefs resign, so should you. Yet when you see a CEO step down for no discernible reason, you should presume something is wrong, maybe very wrong, and do some selling. Shoot first and ask questions later. Please. I've sold stocks simply because the CEO or the CFO resigned. And if it turned out to have jumped the gun, if there was truly nothing wrong, I'd simply buy them back. But in my whole investing career, do you know how many times I can recall that a CEO left for an undisclosed personal reason and his stock was still worth buying right there, off the top of my head? Once. And that was Visa. I racked my brain to come up with other examples. I just can't think of them because they're that uncommon. Why? Simple. CEOs don't quit for personal reasons. Not if they want to keep their bonuses. CFOs don't quit for personal reasons either. These are fabulous jobs. You don't get to be a chief executive by being devoted to your family. Nobody gets one of these jobs without giving up a great deal of what most people enjoy about life. Things like family, friends, nights out. Competition for these positions is so fierce that when you finally land one, you don't appenweiss. Leave. Not for no reason. When C Suite executives leave for undisclosed personal reasons, it's almost always because there's something wrong at the company. Hence my rule. When high level people quit a company, just sell. Aha. You say, I know CEO quit because he had an epiphany about climbing K2. Or I know a CFO who left because she wanted to spend more time with her family. Fine. There are exceptions. At some point somewhere, a CEO really will spend down, step down just to spend more time with their kids. But here's the thing. When you're investing in the stock market, it's not the exception that matters. It's the rule. There will always be some situations where it's a mistake to sell a stock with senior executives leave. I don't care. Because most of the time, selling will be the right decision. This is the kind of rule that helped me keep it keep in the game. Kept me in the game at my old hedge fund. It's all about helping you avoid losses. And one way you do that is by not necessarily taking fewer risks. Okay? No unnecessary risk like figuring out where the CEO just resigned, why he resigned, or for undisclosed personal reasons. It's just good analysis to say, oh, I got to sell that stock. Bottom line, I want you to get a handle on the stock market, you need to watch what's going on with bonds. That should be obvious at this point, but it's something people quickly forget once the economy regains some semblance of normalcy. And when you're looking at individual companies, remember that unexplained high level executive residential equals sell bit Money's back everybody.
- [20:27]
Capella University Representative
Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.edu.
- [20:57]
CNBC Announcer
CNBC Make it's online course how to build a standout personal brand three industry experts will show you how to create and grow your brand step by step.
- [21:06]
Jim Cramer
There's no time like now to start building your personal brand.
- [21:09]
CNBC Announcer
Register now@cnbcmakeit.com Personal Brand Foreign.
- [21:18]
Jim Cramer
You can be a good investor. You need to be a realistic investor. There are far too many people in this game who are not realistic. Either they allow their emotions to cloud their judgment, or they allow themselves to be surprised by the inevitable. Let's start with the inevitable. You think people would get comfortable with the idea that stocks can go down after the dozens of corrections, meaning sizable pullbacks we've had over the last 20 years? You think we get used to the process and accept that watching your stocks drop in price is something that can happen and will happen if people were reasonable. If we were a realistic species, you might assume that we say something like let's prepare for the inevitable correction because it could be right around the corner. Yet aside from the permanent bears who think we're always due for a pullback, most people act like every correction is a total shocker. The type of thing that never happens corrections. So every time the stock market goes down, there's a huge contingent of people who seem stunned, just caught, totally by surprise. To me, corrections are like the rain. I know that rain is inevitable. I expect it to rain. I prepare for it. When the rain comes, I'm ready. I have an umbrella or a coat or I stay indoors. That's how you need to approach the possibility of a pullback in the market. Sooner or later we'll get one. So best have some cash ready on the sidelines just in case that Time turns out to be now, of course, plenty of corrections happen at allegedly unexpected times. In recent years we've had a lot of major declines that were preceded by terrific updates during which we made lots of money and everything looked peachy. In January of 2018, the stock market roared higher. People were acting like we had this unstoppable rally. But in February, the averages got obliterated. In the fall of 2021, we were coming off magnificent year and a half long rally where practically everybody is making money because picking winners were so easy. Then the whole market rolled over and it took months for people to realize no, this was not some temporary dip. It was a bear market that lasted almost a year. But there were some terrific days in November 2021 before everything fell apart. Why do I mention this? Because the time to be most worried about a looming correction is the moment when, when nobody else is concerned. That's when we get these brutal, supposedly unexpected declines. When everyone's euphoric. Now get this, because I thought about this a lot. I used to have this rule at my hedge fund. When I made 2% in a day on the upside, I knew I was too exposed. I knew I was too long. I knew that my portfolio would kill me if we caught a storm. I had simply made too much money all at once. So as the market lifted or my performance was swinging too much to the upside, I pulled back, sometimes furiously selling strength and selling stocks into strength to prepare for that big down day just around the corner. Now, sometimes the corrections never came and I had to swallow my pride days later and buy back everything I'd sold at higher prices. But when we did get hit with a major sell off, my hedge fund outperformed by so much that my clients thought I was a genius. It wasn't genius though. It was discipline and preparation. Plus, because I'd taken something off the table in order to raise cash, I've been able to use that money to buy all sorts of high quality stocks into weekdays. This look, we may not be able to predict when a storm is going to strike, but we do have barometric readings that can help immensely. Yet if corrections are like rain, then where should you get your weather report? I like to follow the proprietary Market Edge oscillator. It's a terrific indicator. I pay for that to tell tells the mark us when the market's getting overbought or oversold whenever this oscillator, which can you can subscribe this to by the way, through the Investing Club registers plus five or above. That tells me we've come up too far too fast to the point where it's gotten dangerous. We could have a big sell off. So to me, a plus 5 reading means you need to pull back aggressively. Wait for correction. What do I mean by pull back aggressively? If you're nimble, Admittedly a big if, you might want to ring the register on some of your portfolio. As always, always, always advise you. If you're a member of the CNBC Investing Club, we spend hours teaching you how to learn this sell discipline. That way you'll have a ton of cash on the sidelines and that you can use to buy back your favorite stocks at lower levels when the storm is if you're not nimble, you should be selling something to raise some cash. When the outsider hits plus five, don't worry, you won't lose your position. You'll have plenty left. We just need to take something off the top, so to speak. So if the market gets hit, you have room to buy it back at lower levels. That's a key to outperformance. Hey, by the same token, when the oscillator hits minus 5, it means the market is incredibly oversold. In that kind of situation, you we've usually come down so far so fast that we're due for at least a short term bounce. That's a good place to put your cash to work, even if you haven't already. Some of our best work with the Travel Trust has come in when we tiptoe in down five on the oscillator. We always have something worth buying when the market's that oversold. Oh, and when the oscillator hits -10 where it was a week before the market bottomed October 2022, you often get massive moves higher, which is why we have to hold our noses and pretty much buy everything in the portfolio. Every single one of the stocks, especially stocks that have been come accidentally high yielders purely because they've come down too much. Those are the ones I go first, so this tool can help you spot bottoms and avoid tops. Worst case scenario, you sell something at a high level but there's no storm and stocks go higher. Which means you underperform the averages because you had too much cash on the sideline. Big deal. You did not get hurt. I'll admit that it's a real risk to have an upside without you. But look at it this way. Using this methodology at my hedge fund, I gave investors 24% compound annual return after all fees. That's about three times what the S and P would have Given me during the same period. As I see it, that's pretty strong evidence that avoiding losses on big down days make more than makes up for the possibility of missing some partial gains on the big up days. Now let's talk about the other component of real estate investing. You need to stop yourself from making investment decisions based on misleading emotions. And the worst of those emotions is hope. Whenever I hear the word hope, as in I hope that doom stock du jour will come back to where I bought it so I can sell it without taking a loss, I get furious. Always remember, hope is not part of the equation. Don't hope for anything. Hope is emotion, pure and simple. And this is not a game of emotion, or at least not your emotions. Every stock you own because you hope it goes higher is another position in your portfolio that's not being filled by stock that you believe will go higher. Yet I hear hope constantly. That's fine if we talk about religious sports. You know, the coaches of some of these come from behind. NCAA men's basketball teams keep their players motivated through hope. But in the stock business, hope is a mistake, because hope supplants reason. Especially when we're talking about stocks that trade in a single digits. You tell yourself, I bought this at $5, now it's at $4. I hope it goes back to 5, then I'll sell. How hard could it be to go from four to five, Right? Wrong. No company ever sets out to have a single digit stock to begin with. Most companies will fight tooth and nail to keep their stocks from going into the single digit territory. So when you find something that sells for just a few bucks, the market has already rendered a harsh judgment. When you let hope become part of the equation, you can end up holding these low quality pieces of paper, waiting for something that will never happen. Forget hope and waiting for higher prices. Cut your losses and move to a stock you can actually see going higher under its own power, not because of hope, but because of reason. Of course, there are times when hope pays off. Like late 2020 and early 2021, where all sorts of garbage could roar higher because there was so much easy money and so many credulous investors looking for easy wins. But the moment the Fed took away the money, took the easy money away. You know, when they put away the punchbowl, so to speak, that whole playbook blew up in your face. And anyone who kept buying stocks, especially on margin or borrowed money based on hope got eaten alive. And that's what I'm trying to protect you against. The bottom line. It pays to be realistic in this business. So prepare yourself for corrections. Big pullbacks are like green, they're inevitable. And whatever you do, don't make stock picking decisions based on hope. You need to invest in the real world, not in fantasy land. Let's take some calls. Let's go to Dennis in Massachusetts. Dennis.
- [29:35]
Various Callers
Hi Jim. Could you offer your top sector Recommendations for a 401k investor seeking good long term growth?
- [29:44]
Jim Cramer
Okay, well look, it's absolutely true that technology is first and then health care second and then literally nothing unless you want to be in the meme stocks. I certainly don't want that for 1k. Now remember 401k. Most people are not having any chance to be able to buy stocks. Younger people should be in the NDX and older people should be in the spx. That's just the way it is. Let's go to Jacob and Alaska. Jacob.
- [30:06]
Various Callers
Hey Jim, as a younger investor recently became a first time homebuyer using a significant portion of of my investment assets as a down payment. How should I think about rebuilding and rebalancing my portfolio going forward? And what principles or strategies would you recommend for someone in my situation to make smart long term investing decisions while balancing new financial responsibilities?
- [30:25]
Jim Cramer
Okay, here's what you want to do. You want to divide your money that you invest equally. Five stocks that you like and then index funds. So index for 50%, stocks for 50%. If you want to, you can insure it with something like Bitcoin or gold. I prefer you to use the gold bullion. If not, then the gld. This way each month you put money to work and you get the individual stocks that you like. And one of them could hit big, another one could hit big and next you know you are a millionaire because of the individual stock side. And the other side, the diversified S and P fund will help you. You're young. Do the NDX fund, not the S and P be real estate. Realistic is key. Expect corrections and don't rely on hope as an investing strategy. Hey, much more mad money at. I'm sharing more of my rules of the street starting with how to know what you own like the back of your hand. And one of your favorite aspects of this show is getting to hear from you. So I'm hitting the phone lines to answer some of your investing questions. So stay with Kramer. You don't need me to tell you that the Internet has been kind of a double edged sword. That's true in every area of life, including investing. Sure, the web makes everything more Convenient. You have all sorts of information available at your fingertips. Something that was unimaginable when I got started this business. It was much harder to do the homework. In the old days, it took real effort. These days, everything is searchable. So the Internet's great for investing, but it also creates a ton of new problems. When we have new problems, we need new rules to help contain them. For example, you absolutely have to be able to explain your stock picks to another human being. If you can't explain it, you don't understand the story well enough to justify buying the stock in question. Here's the thing. In the old days, this rarely came up. But the rise of the Internet took away one of the most important breaks on the process. One of the most important warning systems, which is talking to another human being about what you want to buy. Used to be that you had to talk to a broker to buy anything. Now, with the stroke of a key, you can buy anything, any stock, without ever having to tell another person why you're doing it. And you don't even have to pay a commission. Why is that an issue? Why do you need to explain this stuff to someone else? Anyone else? Doesn't have to be a professional, by the way. Could be anybody, preferably an adult. But you can fall back on explaining to your kids if you can't find an adult who's willing to listen to you talk about the market. Buying stocks is a solitary event. Too solitary. But we're all prone to making mistakes, sometimes big ones, to errors human. If you want to cut down on these mistakes, you should force yourself to articulate to someone else why you like a stock. Do you know how they make their money? Do you know how their earnings are supposed to look? If you don't, then you're setting yourself up for trouble. I always see this problem in biotech. So many people own biotech stocks without even Vegas understanding of what the underlying companies do or how they could possibly turn profitable. You see this with speculative stocks all the time. So many people own these things without even the vaguest understanding of what the underlying companies do or how they could possibly turn a profit. I bet that 90% of the people buying meme stocks have no idea what these companies do. They just. They just know that they're hot, hot, hot. Real bad reason to buy. I urge you to be able to articulate a thesis for owning every stock in your portfolio, including memes. Think of it as a test to make sure you actually done the homework. That way, if the stock gets slammed, you'll Know whether to cut and run or buy more. If you don't actually know what you own, believe me, you're going to get slaughtered on the next decline. And there's always the next decline. And it's declines you have to worry about. When I was at my hedge fund, I always made my employees sell me the stock. Literally sell it to me like a salesperson front. Buy it, pitch it to the boss. If you're in a position where you're picking stocks yourself, get someone to listen to you and let you articulate your reasoning. I also like to ask people, what's going to make this dog go up? What's the catalyst? Or have we missed the move in this overvalued Stock that's up 100% already this year? And of course, what's your edge? These are all important questions. If you can't answer them, you shouldn't be buying. And look, the ability to make hasty decisions is not the only thing you need to be wary of on the web. There is something else you need to watch out for. The Internet has vastly increased the power of the Wall street promotion machine. Most people simply don't have enough respect for the promotion machine. You don't have to like it, but you have to acknowledge its power. When Wall street falls in love with the stock, it'll go much further than anyone expects in its efforts to hype that stock to high heaven. Think about all the garbage SPAC stocks, the startups that came public in 2020 and 2021 by merging with special purpose acquisition companies. Basically big pools of money that exist to make big acquisitions. Originally they were meant to make lots of little acquisitions. But in 2020, some geniuses realized they could use SPAC mergers to bring hot startups public while skirting all the intense regulatory scrutiny you get when you do an actual ipo. We had so many of these electric vehicle or electric vehicle adjacent SPAC deals in 2020 and 2021 with totally made up forecasts that went out many years into the future. If you tried to pull something like this with a real ipo, you might end up in prison. Yes, that bad. If you went to a bank to borrow money with these projections, they'd left you out of the route. Yet Wall street let these SPAC deals happen because the investment bankers wanted the third fees. Meanwhile, the securities Exchange Commission, supposedly cop on the beat, was asleep at the wheel. Wall Street's a strange place. There's no one around who says, you know what? We should crush people with made up estimates and impossible to meet projections. We shouldn't close our eyes to what we know can't work. You know, we shouldn't do this because. But they want the money so bad, they don't ask those questions. They didn't care that the people running these SPAC targets were charlatans who didn't police themselves because the regulators didn't seem to care either. Eventually the most egregious of these SPAC operators got prosecuted, but not until after they lost people fortunes and the level of hyped legitimacy here was ridiculous. And beware, spacs are still somehow legal and often their only watchwords are that the sucker is born every minute. This is just terrible investing. I don't want you in any spot, any spot. So the next time you see this kind of enthusiasm for potentially dubious merchandise, take your cue from public enemy. Don't believe the hype. One last thing. And this is really true of all media, both online and off. Whether you're watching TV or scrolling through social media, it pays to be a skeptic. My general approach is that when you hear on TV is possibly right and likely not fraudulent, but no more than that. Same goes for the web, except you have to be a lot more careful because there's a ton of junk information and uninformed commentary online. They just. That's just the world. That's the world we live in. Sir Pete. After me. Just because someone says it on tv, that doesn't mean it's true. You can't believe everything you hear. That's one reason we most just talk to high level execs on our show. They can still mislead you. But the CEO of a public company outright lies about how their business is doing as opposed to a trader who comes on here or whatever. Let's just say their legal bills will really start to build up. How about that? But generally speaking, you see a lot of money managers coming on television and for a variety of legitimate reasons. These guys aren't always well vetted and often managers can't help themselves when it comes to being promotional. Here's a good rule of thumb. If a money manager is on TV and he's moving his lips, he's probably talking his book. When someone comes on and says that some plunging stock is a buy, do you think that sounds like an opportunity? No. Instead you should wonder, he must be really stuck in that pig. Is he bailing when I am bailing? It's awfully hard to tell. You know, the government doesn't go after people who say they like stocks and then sell them because it's not illegal to change your mind if circumstances warrant. Please remember that the bottom line Always be able to explain your stock picks to another human being and never take anything on faith in this business. Not from the Wall street promotion machine. Especially not the money material matters who love to come on TV and tell you they are right 100% of the time. Booyah for the Emperor of Kramerica.
- [38:47]
Various Callers
Honorable James J. Kramer. You got me jumping around my office right now. Thank you so much for all you do for us.
- [38:53]
Jim Cramer
I enjoy your show and I find it very entertaining and informative.
- [38:57]
Various Callers
I watched your first ever episode of Mad Money back in 2004 and I've been watching every single episode ever since.
- [39:03]
CNBC Announcer
Don't miss Mad Money every night at 6pm Eastern. Plus join the CNBC investing Club and stick with Kramer around the clock.
- [39:19]
Jim Cramer
No matter how smart you are, no matter how well informed, no matter how lucky, sooner or later you're going to make some suboptimal stock. It happens to the best of us. Every portfolio has a few duds in it. The true difference between a good investor and a bad investor is how you handle your losers. People seem to have a natural aversion to selling their losers. Professionals and amateurs alike hate doing it. I know, believe me. I sure hate selling them for the trust. But it has to be done still, somehow. We just keep hoping. Operating under the assumption that a sinking stock is somehow wrong and everything will be just fine. If they just hold on long enough, they rationalize that the weakness they see will be fleeting and that others will soon recognize the value of the stock in question. That's all well and good until you need money. Maybe you want to raise some cash because your portfolio has gotten a little too stock heavy. Maybe you have some real life expenses that require you to put together a lot of cash in a hurry. Maybe you're a money manager with some investors who want their money back. Well then how do you decide what to sell? This is where the tendency to hold on to our losers shows its sinister side. A lot of investors would prefer to sell their best performing holdings rather than their worst performers. They'll sell their winners to subsidize their losers. You then get a self fulfilling spiral. As the bad stocks stay bad, they usually keep going down and with fewer winners your performance will get even worse. This is particularly dangerous for a hedge fund because bad performance triggers yet more redemptions from your clients. And if you keep selling winners to give their money given their money back, it becomes a vicious circle. Individual individuals do the same thing. You only have a finite amount of capital to invest rather than take your medicine. The loss Far too many people, they prefer to just be remain in denial and pretend the losers aren't losing. They fantasize. Thus my rule Never subsidize losers with winners. Don't sell the winners and keep the losers. My advice to anyone who's stuck in this position is simple. Sell the losers and wait a day. If you really want them, go back the next day and buy them. But once they're out of your portfolio, I doubt you'll be tempted to bring them back. By the same token, you can't keep hanging on to a low quality stock just because you're hoping for, say, a takeover. Look, I get it. Nothing's more exciting than a takeover. Nothing's as lucrative. You can put on a lifetime's worth of gains in a day from a takeover. So people go to great lengths to try to capture these moves. And that includes buying a lot of bad companies in the hope that they might catch a bid. Funny thing about bad companies, they rarely get bids. In reality, what gets acquired are great companies with cheap stocks, not crummy companies with stocks that seem cheap but are in fact are pretty expensive. Yet so many people buy this junk merchandise because they think a takeover will save them. Which brings me to my next rule. Never speculate on takeovers of companies with bad fundamentals. The odds are that you'll end up owning something that could go down much more than you thought, even as it has very limited upside. Even if a bad company gets to take over, it might end up coming in at a much lower price than what you initially paid for the stock. That's the thing about bad companies, their stocks tend to go lower. You can do much better buying a well run company that's in good shape and can still get a takeover bid than you can from buying a company that's doing poorly and thus unlikely to get a bid. It makes sense. Not many bad companies get acquired because not many CEOs can turn bad companies into good ones. So don't wait around for a company with lousy fundamentals to be taken over. You could be waiting for forever. You've got my blessing to speculate on takeovers if you're betting on well run companies, because even if a deal doesn't happen, a good business has other ways to win. Plus, when the when the stock of a good company goes down, you can confidently buy more into weakness. That's not something you can do with a company that's going from bad to worse, while you were waiting irrationally for lightning to strike. The bottom line, never sell your winners to subsidize your losers. If you need to raise money for whatever reason, just take the loss and sell something that's underperforming. And absolutely do not speculate on takeovers in companies that have deteriorating fundamentals. If a possible takeover is the only reason you have for liking a stock, you shouldn't like it in the first place. Stick with Cramp Boya. Jim, I love you man. I've been watching you from a day one. Thank you for all the wonderful advice.
- [43:51]
Various Callers
That you provide us.
- [43:52]
Jim Cramer
I'm learning so much watching your show. Watch your program every day. I love it. Always wanted to say booyah on your show. Thank you for being the greatest in the world. We consider you the money market maker and we thank you for all you do. I love your show. I long time fans of your show and we think it's the most entertaining program on tv. I always say my favorite part of this show is answering questions directly from you. And that's why I'm talking. I'm taking this inbox. We're going through it. We're looking at the topics you're interested in right now. By the way, this is something we do every month for members of the investing club. If you like this, be sure that you join the investing club. Let's take some questions. First we're going to Nancy, who asked when you advise people to take out their cost basis and play with a house's money and let it run, at what point do you suggest people taking profits once you've taken that money out? I'm not kidding. Once you've taken the house's money out, you can't lose. So you know what you're going to do? You're not going to sell. You're going to let it run and maybe get ultra rich from one position. It can happen. Think about Nvidia. Now we're taking a question from Herm, who wants to know? Jim has been talking about battling the stocks that are down. What exactly does that mean? Trading a particular stock for a while, doubling down on a stock that is down from his cost basis, finding a good exit point to sell the stock. Boy with. These questions are amazing. Okay, I like to have when a stock flies up, I take a little bit off the table and then if it goes all the way back down, I start buying from below where I first bought it and then buy again. That's battling in a pyramid style. So If I bought 10 shares where I sold 10 shares. I bought 10 shares back and then it went down again, I might buy 20 and then if went down I might buy 40. Ultimately I'll come right back up and sell some of that low basis stock. That's the battle. Now let's go to Michael who asks, can you recommend a few stocks specifically when investing for young children? Many of us invest for our children or grandchildren, so that would be helpful. Yes. You're going to have to buy tech and health care. I think that you can buy a stock like Johnson and Johnson, triple a balance sheet, maybe the only one. And when it comes to tech, you know, I'm going to go back to Nvidia, own it, don't trade it and Apple own it, don't trade it. Those are my best breeds. I got to be there for those. And I've got to tell you, can I just tell you, if I had said that when I started this show 15, 20 years ago, everybody who watched it would have said, you know what, I feel like being a millionaire. I'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and I promise try to find it. Just for you. Right here on Midmoney. I'm Jim Cramer. See you next time.
- [46:39]
Podcast Disclaimer Narrator
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer trading@schwab is powered.
- [47:19]
Jim Cramer (continued commentary)
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