Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 8/26/25

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – August 26, 2025 Episode Summary

Episode Overview

In this episode of “Mad Money,” Jim Cramer navigates through the intricate world of Wall Street, focusing on how political drama and economic headlines intersect with stock choices and portfolio decisions. Addressing the latest controversy surrounding President Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and potential mortgage fraud allegations, Cramer challenges the notion that Washington headlines should heavily influence investing strategies. The episode is classic Cramer—fiery, opinionated, and firmly grounded in practical investing advice. Key segments include deep dives into Nvidia (NVDA), TJX’s stellar quarter, the volatile agricultural commodities market, a unique interview with Breitling’s CEO, and the famed Lightning Round.

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Main Discussion Points and Insights

1. Washington Drama and Its (Limited) Stock Market Impact

[00:41 – 10:53]

• Lisa Cook Controversy:
  • President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud has rattled political circles, with Wall Street insiders worrying about Federal Reserve independence.
  • Cramer’s take: While headlines about the White House threatening the Fed’s independence make for cable news drama, they have little actual effect on major stocks like Nvidia or the broader market’s P/E multiples.
    • “On a day where The Dow gained 136 points... all I heard today was people wondering if the market should be rallying when the President’s trying to fire a Fed governor… To which I say, at this point, when it comes to the prices of stocks… who cares?” — Jim Cramer [01:17]
• Ignore the Noise, Focus on Investing:
  • Cramer urges listeners to focus on earnings, innovation, and business fundamentals—especially for bellwether stocks like Nvidia—rather than getting swept up in political outrage.
    • “More importantly, I say own Nvidia, don’t trade it. Regardless of what’s happened with Lisa Cook’s second mortgage application…” — Jim Cramer [03:35]
  • Most investors want actionable stock advice, not civics lessons.
    • “You don’t come to me for a civics lesson. You come to me to ask me if you should buy or sell Nvidia. I say buy, or at least hold.” — Jim Cramer [10:05]

2. Personal Anecdotes Illustrating Wall Street’s Focus

• Everyday Encounters:
  • Cramer shares stories from daily life—at the MRI, elevator, or with strangers—all asking about stock tips, not macro policy.
    • “The person who straps me in the MRI… wants to know whether I still like Palo Alto Networks or if he just bought some for the trust. It looks real good.” — Jim Cramer [06:43]
  • Message: Main Street cares about making money, not Beltway drama.

3. The Case for Nvidia Ahead of Earnings

• While market chatter obsesses over politics, Cramer zeroes in on Nvidia’s fundamentals, upcoming quarterly report, and the total cost of ownership for the new Grace Blackwell chip, especially versus shareholder-critical issues like China sales.

4. Caller Q&A Highlights

[10:53 – 11:54, then Lightning Round at 38:50 – 42:29]

• Eli Lilly (LLY):
  • Memory loss drug isn’t the key driver—focus is on the new weight loss pill, which warrants excitement and explains the stock’s rally.
    • “If you strip out the people who don’t… this pill is going to lose you, I think, between 12 and 15 pounds. And that’s why Lilly, instead of being up 12, went up 40.” — Jim Cramer [12:21]
• Costco (COST):
  • Strong approval: “You got a winner in Costco right here, right now.” — Jim Cramer [22:55]

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Key Segments and Themes

Retail Earnings Deep Dive: TJX

[11:54 – 20:35]

• Why TJX Is Winning:
  • Exceptional quarter: Accelerated revenue and same-store sales growth across all divisions.
  • “Investors figured that with a much softer labor market, consumers will be more inclined to go bargain hunting. And nobody does bargains better than TJX.” — Jim Cramer [12:55]
  • Gross margins, comp sales, and guidance all beat expectations, resulting in new all-time highs for the stock.
  • Merchandise Model:
    • TJX thrives on buying excess inventory at discounts, passing on the “treasure hunt” experience to consumers.
    • CFO John Klinger: “Confident that availability of merchandise will continue to be outstanding.” — Quoted by Cramer [15:19]
  • Cramer’s Verdict:
    • “I’m betting TJX has more to run… wouldn’t be surprised if this stock becomes a semi-permanent resident of the new high list for the rest of the year.” — Jim Cramer [20:09]
  • Memorable moment: Cramer flashes Buffalo jeans he bought at a huge TJX discount—personal proof of value.

Off the Charts: Commodities Market Breakdown

[21:40 – 28:50]

• Corn:
  • Market is repeating 2014’s bear cycle, with prices likely approaching a floor soon ($3.50 – $5.00 range).
• Cattle:
  • Parabolic rise in prices, but market may be overbought and poised for a collapse—bull market could soon run out of steam.
• Coffee:
  • Recent rally echoes previous bull markets that ended with steep corrections.
    • “If not for the existence of natural gas futures, coffee would be considered the commodity widowmaker.” — Jim Cramer [26:18]
• Investment Takeaway:
  • “Commodities are inherently boom and bust, nothing’s more commoditized than the ag complex.” — Jim Cramer [29:25]
  • Good news for companies like Starbucks and Texas Roadhouse, which could see tailwinds from price reversals.

Interview: Breitling CEO Georges Kern

[33:19 – 38:50]

• NFL Partnership:
  • Breitling to become the official timepiece of the NFL, with team-specific watches launching (starting at $3,500–$7,200).
  • U.S. is now Breitling’s largest market (22–23% of sales).
    • “The NFL is the ultimate American sports…it’s a family gathering. Over a hundred million people are watching the Super Bowl and we are the first luxury brand partnering with the NFL.” — Georges Kern [33:32]
• Tariffs & U.S. Investment:
  • Kern is “a little bit under shock” from new tariffs—argues Switzerland is a major investor and employer in the U.S.
  • Cramer sympathizes, noting the disconnect between trade policy and real economic investment.
• Global NFL Brand:
  • Kern confident global NFL games will boost Breitling globally; partnership is the company's “single biggest investment as a brand worldwide.”

Policy Opinion: Tariffs and American Manufacturing Nostalgia

[42:39 – 45:41]

• Furniture Tariffs:
  • New push by President Trump for tariffs on foreign furniture, citing national security concerns.
  • Cramer’s take:
    • National security argument is dubious—unlike steel, semiconductors, or rare earths.
    • Nostalgia for American-made furniture isn’t an actionable economic policy; the industry’s jobs and skills have largely moved on, making a full “revival” unrealistic.
    • “Nostalgia is not a policy. Sometimes you just have to accept that the bargain we made had a lot more downside in people’s lives…” — Jim Cramer [45:25]

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Memorable Quotes

• “If somebody told you to sell stocks because of headline from Washington, you… would have been dead wrong.” — Jim Cramer [08:49]
• “Main Street cares about making money, not Beltway drama.”
• “There have been so many shocking things coming from the White House that they’re no longer shocking. At some point, this stuff gets priced in.” — Jim Cramer [05:09]
• On TJX: “1999. Can you believe it? I’m crushing it.” — Jim Cramer, on buying $109 jeans for $19.99 at TJX [17:19]
• On Cattle Market: “This is the most volatile cattle market in the history of cattle.” — Jim Cramer [24:15]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Start | Segment | Highlight | |---------|-----------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | 00:41 | Opening Market Take & Washington News | The Cook controversy’s non-effect on Nvidia | | 06:43 | Cramer’s Personal Anecdotes | MRI tech wants stock tips, not policy discussion | | 11:54 | TJX Earnings Breakdown | Why TJX thrives in a tough retail environment | | 21:40 | Commodities “Off the Charts” | Corn, cattle, and coffee price predictions | | 33:19 | Breitling Interview | NFL partnership & Swiss tariff discussion | | 38:50 | Lightning Round | Fast stock takes, practical investing advice | | 42:39 | Furniture Tariffs Commentary | America’s nostalgia vs. economic reality |

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Conclusion: Cramer’s Core Message

• Ignore the noise from Washington, and invest with a focus on fundamental business metrics.
• Retail winners like TJX are thriving due to operational excellence in tough climates.
• Commodities markets are extreme but cyclical—don’t chase the boom, look for the bust.
• International business partnerships and tariffs remain complex and unpredictable.
• Nostalgia shouldn’t dictate policy—sound investing relies on forward-looking analysis.
• At the end of the day, “I’m going to keep trying to help people make money in stocks… The viewers are my real bosses, and that’s who I play for.” — Jim Cramer [10:08]

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This summary covers the episode’s primary content, flows in Jim Cramer’s energetic, off-the-cuff style, and provides clear pointers for investors seeking actionable insight.

Transcript

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Stay ahead. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer. I'll do my friends. I'm just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just entertain, but to explain, put in context. Call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet Meyim Kramer. We want to have a conscience. We want to make a judgment about what the President's doing, whether or not it's right. When he does something outrageous, we can lament, complain, shrug our shoulders, but the one thing we can't do is sell the stock of Nvidia because of President Trump's attempt to fire Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, what might or might not be mortgage fraud. Yes, I know that sounded flip, but deal with me. On a day where The Dow gained 136 points, the S&P climbed 0.4%, and the Nasdaq events 0.44%, all I heard today was people wondering if the market should be rallying when the President's trying to fire a Fed governor, which is supposed to be illegal. The cognoscenti want to say it's wrong. It's wrong for stocks to go higher too, when the White House is threatening the Fed's independence. And look, I get that I want an independent Fed to Federal Reserve may get it right or wrong, but historically, when your central bank is run directly by a president or prime minister, you tend to get much higher inflation. That's just an empirical point. It's a given. But I am now going to commit sacrilege in front of you because let's be honest, until this week, the vast majority investors had never heard of Lisa Cook. They don't care that she hasn't been charged, not charged, but hasn't been charged with mortgage fraud. Supposedly telling banks she had two primary residents when you're only allowed that one. They don't even care how she votes. Which is a last with President presidential nemesis Jay Palavichi. They think two things. One, this is all inside baseball to them. And two, the President does outrageous things every day. What's the deal? It's become the norm. Whether you think it's outrageously good or outrageously bad, it shouldn't be shocking anymore. Trump feels like he has a mandate to be outrageous. And given that his party controls both Congress and the Supreme Court, he can get away with practically anything, seemingly no matter how outrageous it is. To which I say, at this point, when it comes to the prices of stocks, here I go. Who cares? What does the firing or non firing of a Fed official most people have never heard of have to do with the price to earnings multiple of the $4.4 trillion stock of Nvidia going into tomorrow night's quarterly report? Again, I am not trying to minimize it. I understand why so many on Wall street are worried that President Trump's trying to control the Federal Reserve. But at the end of the day, I don't see this stuff having much impact on your portfolio. Okay. Or on the most important stocks in this market. More importantly, I say own Nvidia, don't trade it. Regardless of what's happened with Lisa Cook's second mortgage application, I say I want an independent Fed. But even if it gets a little less independent, I believe that tomorrow night at this time, Nvidia CEO Jensen Mong will have told a good story about how demand for chips remains incredibly strong because they're the bedrock of artificial intelligence. That's what I care about. I want our country to have a central bank that looks at the evidence and tries to do the right thing, regardless of the President. But more important, I want to know the total cost of ownership of Nvidia's new Grace Blackwell chip and whether it's still very moderate and whether customers will be able to generate a great return using it. Something being called into question every day these days by a lot of the Nvidia bears. Finally, I want the President to be less outrageous only because the Fed's about to give him what he wants anyway. Lower interest rates. He doesn't have to fire anybody to make it happen. But I also want to see strong Chinese sales from video. I mean, these things are totally unrelated. Let me put it another way. There have been so many shocking things coming from the White House that they're no longer shocking. At some point, this stuff gets priced in. Did the President take a cut of Nvidia sales to China? Sure, but he did so after lifting ban on the sales, something that will make shareholders a fortune. Did he take a 10% stake in intel in exchange for giving the company the money that it needs to keep growing? Yeah. And while it's unorthodox, intel really needed the cash that's left out. Yet somehow every day there are people who are shocked at what this man does. The more shocked you are, the more likely you are to sell stocks. Even though most of this stuff has nothing to do with the market and it's been wrong to sell stocks. Or to be blunt, do you really care if I'm concerned about whether a Fed governor got a mortgage? Unless the just partner files charges, my view on it means little. And look for pretty much my entire career. If somebody told you to sell stocks because of headline from Washington, you, you would have been dead wrong. We already went through this in Trump's first term. I'm just trying to figure out how to help you make money. And that means not paying as much attention to stuff as others would like me to do. I do care about Jay Powell. I like his independence. I like his sharp mind. But he has a term. The term will end early next year. President Trump will pick his replacement. Life will go on. Let me tell you a story about who I am and what I'm trying to do so you can understand why I'm not being cavalier and what has become my lifelong Persona. And as Wall street collar man. Two and a half months ago, I went on this 10 mile hike in British Columbia with my kids. Probably a mistake. They're really motoring. I try to motor too. I'm a little older than they are. That's what happens. Kids are younger than you. Well, mile five, I felt a pain in my ankle. It didn't go away. I really hurt myself and this thing's been bugging me. So today I had the mri. Okay, what happens when I get an mri? Okay, well, first the person who guides me in the mri, he doesn't guide me and say, hey, I like that gal and you? He says, okay, what am I buying here? I said, well, I like Boeing. How about Nvidia? Okay, Solana? I said, all right. I like the bitcoin. I like the Crypt. Salon is good. I like Salon. What is the person who straps me in the MRI want and want to know from me? Does he ask me, do you want Beethoven, Brahms? I don't know. He wants to know whether I still like Palo Alto Networks or he just bought some for the trust. It looks real good. And I like Boeing too. We Finished mri. Crowded elevator. Terrific. Woman next to me says money man, what do I do with the Nvidia? I told her to own it, don't trade it. Regardless, tomorrow's court. Anyone asked me about Lisa Cook, I wouldn't tell everyone I thought it was outrageous at Lisa Cook may lose her job because she became. She may be charged or may not be charged with having two primary residents or maybe not having two minority residents and that. Therefore the Fed's not as independent. Therefore you should sell Nvidia. But that's not how it works. They wanted to know how to make money. Am I craving? And my insistence of trying to help these people rather than arguing about policy. Am I less of a thinking person because I didn't direct them to the acts about the Federal Reserve's independence. At the end of the day, at the end of the very day, I just don't want to scare anyone from what could be a good stock and a good stock market because of the feelings I have about the Cook imbrolio. So I keep my opinions that aren't relevant to stocks, to myself, unless asked directly about them. You don't come to me for a civics lesson. You come to me to ask me if you should buy or sell in video. I say buy or whether. Or at least hold. You want to know whether I think Apple should buy. Perplexity I don't talk about anymore because I've said it too many times. But I don't mind this. You know why? It's not my lot in my life. It's part of my life's joy. So here's the bottom line. As long as I have this job, I'm going to keep trying to help people make money in stocks. If someone had asked about Lisa Cook, I would have given an answer about Fed's independence. But you know what? They did. They want me to help them make money. And I am, in the end, their obedient servant, who once they want to hear about stocks, done. Inside Baseball, about the Fed and the viewers, are my real bosses. And that's who I play for. And that's what I do. Curtain, Illinois. Kurt. Booyah. Jimmy C. Booyah, partner. What's up? Hey, let's say fly, Eagles, fly. You betcha. The best loves of my wife. Fantastic. Go ahead. My wife and Howie are business partners. You know, we make a joke. Okay. Go ahead. Yeah. I'd like to ask, what do you think about this pharmaceutical company? They got approved for a drug to help with memory loss back in July. It's a little company Pharmaceutical company out of Indianapolis in me and I called Eli Lilly. Okay, the memory loss is not that important, Kurt, because it's just a very hard thing. I mean, actually, if you want memory loss, you buy. You buy Amgen because Repath is doing really well in the memory loss category. Here's what you need to know. That Lily thing this morning comes out and I'm like, I'm going with Jeff Marks and I'm like, yell. I'm saying, listen, this is really a big deal. But meanwhile it gives me the seventh position in the draft. That's what I need. And I say the stock was up at 12. I said read the phase. Read the first test versus the second test. The first test is a lot about if you are just weight, the second one's got diabetes. This is the pill. Okay? Bear with me. It's a pill. If you strip out the people who don't very hard to lose weight, this pill is going to lose you, I think between 12 and 15 pounds. And that's why Lilly instead of being up 12, went up 40. Okay. I was surprised nobody asked about Lily today. It's kind of odd. All right, you want to hear. But guess what? People want to hear about stocks from me. They want to talk second mortgages and primary residence. I'm all over it now on Mad Money tonight. TJX just broke out after the quarter. So can the off price retail. I'm so fired up. I don't know why I'm digging this story to tjx. Okay, and then from cotton to coffee. What the hell? Why isn't the price of corn and everything about it lower? Well, I don't know. I think it's going insane. So I'm going off the charts to get a better read. And Switzerland was hit by nearly 40% tariff on products sold in the U.S. what is that about? I'm going to turn to a private player in the space. Oh, Breitling. To get a better sense of probably it might impact the company's business. Look, I'm happy to talk second mortgages. I have a couple of them myself. Stay with Kramer.

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Last week we reached one of my favorite parts of the year, the retail portion of earnings season here from Home Depot. I told you that quarter was good. Target, Walmart bad. And my favorite, tjx, the off price specialist that owns TJ Maxx, Marshalls Home Goods. Those stores look very sharp right now and a couple of other discount brands. I like this one so much we have big position for the Chapel Trust. It's been a phenomenal long term performer. But when TJX reported near the end of May, the stock got hammered. It was trading around 135 before the numbers hit. The stock drifted down all the way down to 120 at multiple points this summer. I think it's pushed down some parts, but there were many short sell. Even by the end of July, it was still sitting in the mid-120s. Things changed when we got the week July labor report on August 1, which came with some major negative revisions from prior months. So negative that the president fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But while the White House didn't like those job numbers and a lot of more discretionary retailers feared them, they were fabulous for tjx. Investors figured that with a much softer labor market market, consumers will be more inclined to go bargain hunting. And nobody does bargains better than tjx. And that's why the stock caught fire this month and has been nothing but. Normally when a stock runs up into earnings, that's not necessarily a good thing. TJX in particular tends to sell off in good in response to good numbers and action. The stock had already set a high bar yet when TJX actually reported Wednesday morning, they delivered a gem of a quarter though, enough to send the stock up more than three and a half bucks. Not only did the revenue come in higher than expected, up 7% year over year, but they had accelerating revenue growth in each of the four divisions. That's more Max, which is the bulk of the company, TJ Maxx, Marshalls and Sierra. Then there's that home goods that I mentioned, possibly on fire. Third is TJ's Canada. They're making a lot of money there. And fourth is TJX International. Very good business which really should be called TGX Europe in Australia. Every one of these components that accelerating revenue growth which we also call our here and Wall street can't get enough that our goodness. At the same time TJX is total comp same store sales which is how we really measure retailers who by 4%. Wall street was only looking for 3.3%. Some of that was from the domestic TJ Maxx and Marshalls. But a lot of it came from the Canadian business which for some reason up 9% same store sales growth. That's incredible. Analysts looking for 5 just as important. TJX had a better than expected Gross margin of 30.7% up 30 basis points year over year. Many retailers are having pressure in their margins. Their pre tax income was up more than 12% also better than expected. And they posted a 9 cent earnings beat off a $1 basis. That's nearly 15% earnings growth. Retailers are hurting. They're not giving you that. Oh, and TJX is operating cash flow. It trounced the estimates coming at nearly 1.8 billion. Wall street was only looking for 1.4 billion guidance. TJX has reputation for being on the conservative side with its forecast. That's one reason why the stock tends to get hit in response to earnings. Even though we now we know from experience that these guys are expert practitioners of what we call you pod you under p promise. Oh, over and deliver. Under promise over deliver. This time management offered an in line to slightly soft outlook for the current quarter. But they also raised their full year forecast across the board. That was unlike them. For the current quarter the ATGs guided for slightly higher than expected revenue. But their same store sales forecast was a little light. That's like them. And their Earnings forecast was $0.04 lower than expected in the midpoint of the range. That's really like them. But again these guys tend to be very cautious with their guidance. That's just how they play it. When TJX reported in May, the stock got clobbered because management guided the 2 to 3% same store sales growth next quarter. And the earnings per share of just $0.97 three months later turn out to be 4% $10 per share. With this latest quarter, TJX has now exceeded the high end of its own quarterly earnings guidance for 10 straight quarters. You part. So with the guidance for the current quarter once again came in light. Everybody realized this match was simply sandbagging us with low ball numbers. Sometimes though, the business looks so Good that even this cautious management has to raise numbers across the board. And this was one of those times. For the full year fiscal, full year, TJX is now talking about 3% same store sales growth, up from 2 to 3% in the previous forecast. And they raised their earnings guidance by a stunning 16 cents at the midpoint. Crucially, that's 7 cents bigger than the earnings beat these guys reported. Meaning this was a genuine beat race. Not a lot of. One of the kind of ones that we should just forget about because they were manufactured. And if you listen this conference call, which was dry, unfortunately, but that's them, you got an even better story. Here's how president CEO Ernie Herman put it in this about as exciting as this guy ever gets. As we have seen through so many retail and economic environments, consumers were drawn to our excellent values and brands customer transactions were up at every division and drove our overall comp sales increase. Going forward, we continue to see market share opportunities across each of our U.S. and international divisions. End quote. Now with TJX, one of the things I'm always watching is the company's availability of merchandise, meaning how easily they're able to get their hands on quality product that other retailers, retailers weren't able to move. And they're stuck with trying to bring in new stuff. They can't till this old stuff goes out. Remember, the whole business model here is the TJ buys excess inventory from other retailers for a fraction of what it's worth. Those retailers have no choice but to sell. They need to move the old merchandise before they can bring in the new merchandise. Or there may be like a Kohl's, which is like, hey, listen, we got to raise some money here. And that's how TGS can offer you such incredible bargains. But it only works when they can get their hands on quality product. Remember, TJX actually makes very little product itself. It buys from others. The others are the ones that pay the tariff, not tjx. On this conference call, CFO John Klinger sounded almost giddy about the merchandise that he's finding. And he's, quote, confident that availability of merchandise will continue to be outstanding, end quote. He goes on to say, quote, we are well positioned to flow fresh assortments to our stores and online this fall and holiday season, end quote. It's that excess inventory of others that allows TJX to give you the treasure hunt experience people love. We have a TJX right next to us, which I love to check out all the time. And you never know what you're going to find there. I mean here, just like a million. Let me consider these pants. Well, yeah, let's just cut them. Now. Look at this. Okay. This is my size 3230. I'm looking pretty good. This is a slim boot. Boot. Slim boot King. I don't know what that means, but I like it. Buffalo David Benton. I guess that's great, but it doesn't matter. Here's what's great. Okay. What's great is 109. Here, come here. 109. And what did I get it for? 1999. Does that tell the story? Better than anything I could possibly say. And these look great. Now the fact is I live and breathe and sleep in Brioni. I don't know what I'm going to do, but I like the price. Okay. Anyway, this is a key factor in the value that the company is able to provide their customers. As CEO Ernie Herman stated in the earnings call, I am convinced that the consumers will continue to seek our value and that we remain a very attractive option for consumers. Consumers seeking great brands, fashions and quality merchandise at compelling prices. Our customer surveys tell us that our value perception remains strong and we are laser focused on keeping it that way. Yeah, I put this belt is also from there. And I'll tell you this belt. I saw this belt in Italy, I swear to God. And like I saw it next door. And it's cheaper here. Believe me. Customers see value at TJX because they're buying quality merchandise for less than they can get anywhere else. Contrast that to other retailers like the dollar stores. Right. When you go there, they may the cheap. The prices look cheap cheap. But for lower quality goods go to dollar store. I think you're buying things for much more than they cost. No bargain. No bargain. Except maybe the candy aisle. That even there. I got to tell you, the boxes seem like they're shrinking or maybe there's just fewer residents in the box. I got to do some counting. In response to all these positives, TJX stock gapped up last Wednesday, setting a new all time high in the process. Initially rallied 8.1% sake. But then the stock got hit with some profit taking. Finished up just 2.7%. Hey, by the way, since then TJX has given back more gains to the point where it's now up less than a buck and a half from where it was trading before. This remarkable quarter. You're practically getting it for free. So let me give you the bottom line. And by the way, I do like these pants. Anyone know Buffalo is. I mean, I don't know. Could be anybody. This is an excellent outcome for TJX and a vindication for everyone else who's defending the stock all summer, including me and my Compadres of the CBC Investing Club. 1999. Can you believe it? I'm crushing it. Considering the consider the facts on the ground in retail, everything from the tariffs to an incredibly valued conscious consum. I'm betting TGX is more to run. I wouldn't be surprised if this stock becomes a semi permanent resident of the new high list for the rest of the year. And believe me, in my, in my less, let's say in my less prudent times, I put these on right now. Bad money's back after the break.

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[Jim Cramer]

Look, this is really important. We've had a lot of things be roiled in the stock market because of the commodities market and yet I haven't addressed it enough so you don't understand. By the way, it's also the same thing in the supermarket. And while that's not about stocks, it's about you and what you have left to invest in. So lately it feels like the entire agricultural complex has just gone insane with corn rolling over while cattle and coffee prices soared new highs. So tonight we're going to go off the charts. Take a closer look with help of my go to person, Carly Garner. She's a brilliant technician who's a senior commodity strategist and broker at De Carley Trading as well as being the author of the de Carley Perspective newsletter. She is the person we like to talk to about things that I frankly am not specialized at. And in her view, what we're really seeing now is the tragedy of the farming business. For years we had a pretty massive bull market in grain that drove corn prices to $8 per busel. Farmers made big investments in better equipment like the stuff that we talk about all the time with agco, with Deere, new technology, more acres planted. But when you boost production, that only leads to lower prices, which is what we're seeing right now. This is why I always tell you that commodities are inherently boom bust. There's no escaping it. Fortunately, Garner thinks this downsizing in corn, the downswing probably in its first inning. Why? Take a look at the monthly chart of corn futures. As Garner sees it corners repeating the previous bear market that it went through in 2014. Pretty good comparison. Back then corn market was coming off two euphoric runs up to eight bucks. The Bulls manager put together a $1 rally earlier in the year, but then corn rolled over, plummeting to the low $3 range. How does that stack up with right now? Garner points out that corn was coming off an incredible rally to $8 again back in 2022. Well, it already pulled back hard from its highs, just like 2014. Earlier this year, corn also rallied a dollar before moving sharply lower. This time she expects less pain, but still sees corn coming down to its five year trend line of $3.75. Okay, so it's or possibly even $3.50. In other words, with corn a little above $4, we could be pretty close to lows if we keep following the 2014 pattern. Garner says corn prices should hover between $3.50 and $5 the next couple of years. Historically $5 major ceiling for corn. If it breaks out above that level, you tend to see explosive moves to the upside. Mostly it stays below five bucks. Look, as an aside, does anyone out there actually feel they're getting a break in the price of anything? Why are some prices of commodities connected with corn going down? Why isn't corn. Why aren't things so darn expensive in the supermarket? The answer, like so many things having to do with inflation, it's complicated. For example, while the grain producing business is in a slump, cattle producers are enjoying the best pricing in their history, the history of the product. You probably noticed the astronomical increase in the cost of beef. We had Wolfgang Puck one today, Big restaurante talking about it. It's terrible. Some of that's because we closed the Mexican border to the meat trade thanks to a screw Worm infestation. Some of its tariffs on beef imports, some of it's the weak dollar, and some of it is simply supply. In America, we have the smallest herd of cattle since the 1950s. That's shocking. Is it any wonder why the stock of Texas Roadhouse, a huge meat buyer for its $11 steak dinner, didn't make its quarter? It's because of this. Keep in mind the cattle market trades limited hours without overnight session and with less liquidity than most commodities. And that's why Garner believes it's a market ripe for price exaggeration. When it's back, good fervor gets out of hand. And she thinks that's exactly what we're seeing. This is what you're seeing, what you're seeing here. This is the corn futures we're going to go to to basically state. Just imagine it's steak. Okay, look at the monthly chart of cattle futures going all the way back to 1995. All right, so we've got a long term view here. Garner thinks cattle prices are following the 2014 blueprint too. In 2012, the cattle market achieved fresh all time highs, then consolidated for a few years before making a parabolic move. That's parabolic, right? I always tell you these things collapse while this one that collapsed under its own weight, boom right down like that. Okay, now how does that compare to right now? In 2023, cattle prices rallied to an all time high. Go back to 23 year to all time high. With the relative strength index following the market into overbought territory. Just like 2012 after a few years of consolidation, cattle then cattle prices then broke out explosively to the upside. We've never seen a movement. This is state, people. This is what's happening. This is why you see your stake abuse from even what, couple of weeks ago. Right now the chart is pointing toward $3.75 feeder cattle as a potential blow off top tipping point. And the options market seems to agree. Garner says the call options are already pricing precisely such a move. This is a mere 10 to 15 cents higher than where feeder cattle are trading right now. At any other time in history, 10 to 15 cents, that'd be a substantial move. But this is the most volatile cattle market in the history of cattle. Garner expects the cattle bull market to run out of steam soon. Especially when you look at the insanely overbought levels. The relative rest, amazing rsi. We haven't seen anything close to this since cattle prices peaked in 2014. At the time, the fundamental narrative was as overwhelmingly positive as it today. But the cattle didn't. But that didn't prevent the cattle market from giving back the entire rally over the next two years. Garner's betting that scenario will repeat itself, which means eventually we could be looking at a $25 cattle. I know that's hard to believe, but if it's resenting, Clyburn is on the right track. And she is on the right track. I got to tell you, after a weak quarter, the Texas White House I believe is happening right now. That's the. That's why our channel trust continues to buy it. Next, I want to check out the weekly chart of the of the feeder cattle futures with the CFTC's commitments of traders report. And that's. It's data that tells you how various types of investors are positioned here. Garda likes to look at the green line. Okay, so we. This is. I know the lines seem like they're all blurring here, but this is the green line. This represents large speculators, meaning money matters right now. Large speculators have gotten wildly net long in the feeder cattle market with a net long position of nearly 30,000 contracts. Prior to this year, Garter points out they never had net long by more than 17,000 contracts. Basically, she thinks everybody who could go bullish on cows has already done so and it'll be hard to find fresh buyers. Plus, if these speculators liquidate all at once, the price of beef will collapse, just like 2014. Look, this is a parabolic move again. This is why when you go to the supermarket, you see what you do, and she thinks it's about to end. Be very bullish for our country. Finally, let's talk coffee. According to Garner, if not for the existence of natural gas futures, coffee would be considered the commodity widowmaker. When you look at the monthly chart of coffee prices, we've seen high volatility over the past couple of years as the market worked through supply issues caused by drought and exceptionally hot temperatures and temperatures in Brazil, floods in Vietnam, and the aftermath of low coffee prices before 2020. For the pandemic, we had prices. Years of low coffee prices that forced many growers to shutter the business, which is why coffee prices have surged now that we're experiencing supply disruptions Again, though, when it comes to the ag complex, Garner reminds us the bull markets are the exception. Bear markets tend to be much more in common. For example, right now we're experiencing the only fourth legitimate bull market in coffee over the last quarter quarter century. Here we go again. Garner points out that the previous three coffee bull markets Made dramatic late spring or early winter highs, but ended after a spectacular August rally failed to maintain pricing. 2011, 2014, 2022. Coffee prices roared in August and then rolled over, although in 2014, it took an extra month before it fell apart. Garner's betting this time will be no different. Coffee surged to unfathomable heights earlier this year when experienced a temporary setback for putting on a magnificent August rally. Yet history says these August coffee rallies just do not last. The last three coffee bull markets were followed by 50 to 65% corrections. If the current rally behaves in line with the past, that's going to be brutal. Now, that is very good news for Starbucks. Another. Another stock that the charitable trust owns. Although I got to tell you that that stock has been made weeks by the coffee prices. But there's so many other factors involved that I think coffee prices are actually a smaller part of what's wrong with the stock than, let's say, a lot of other things. Here's the bottom line. The charts interpreted by Carly Garner suggest that corn prices are almost done falling after a long downswing. Cattle and coffee prices could be about to peak after major rallies. At the end of the day, commodities are inherently boom and bust, and nothing's more commoditized than the ag complex. I care, of course, more about the stocks and their impact. And at these extremes, the impact is for real. Okay, let's take some calls. Let's go to Tony in Florida. Tony. Hey, Jim. Welcome back from your vacation. Hopefully you're well rested and ready to go. I am. Thank you so much. What's going on? I just bought this stock a couple months ago, but I've been going to this club for years and it's always packed. And I bought a couple of times on way down and it's 12% of my portfolio. Can I buy more Costco or. Hold on. Yeah, I want you to buy more Costco here. I was actually going back and forth on Costco. What's the right level? It is under 50 times earnings right now. I feel very good about buying some Costco, almost actually pick some up for the Travel Trust. But I'll tell you the truth, it's so far above my basis that I don't want to tempt fate. I've been. You got a winner in Costco right here, right now. Remember, they can pass on the price of beer because they are about the membership, not about the price of beef. The charts driven by Carly Garner suggested corn is likely reaching its lows, while coffee and feeder cattle will Peak soon, another cycle in the boom and bust world of commodities. Remember, they do relate to both the supermarket and to you in your portfolio. Now much more mad money hit watch watchmaker Breitling is partnering with the NFL to become the least official timepiece partner. I'm getting a sneak peek at all the exciting releases the company has planned with the CEO ahead. Of course. This season actually begins in about eight days. Then President Trump wants to tariff to furniture companies due to national security concerns. But is this really an industry that needs to be controlled due to national security risk? Or is this just the president's nostalgic for the American industry that wants to was like I have. I'm digging into the situation, sharing where I come down and of course, all the calls. Rapid fire in tonight's edition of Lighting Mount. So stay with Crank. Sometimes we like to take a step back from covering the names that make a lot of headlines. China's spotlight on a business that you don't hear about every day. Take Breitling, the privately held Swiss watchmaker that's been around for over 140 years. My dad loved to wear Breitling, although his were all fakes. Fresh off Canal street in lower Manhattan. No. Now, there's a lot we can learn from a company like Breitling, from the state of the luxury watch market to the impact of tariffs in the industry, to the news that they're about to become the official timepiece partner of the NFL. And it matters when you're the official timepiece of a major sport. So let's take a closer look with George Kermit, the CEO of Breitling. Mr. Kern, welcome back to my buddy.

[George Kern (CEO of Breitling)]

Thank you very much for the invitation, Jim.

[Jim Cramer]

I know that the NFL is near and dear to my heart, but it's near and dear to, it's the only thing that people the ratings still keep going up. You have a partnership. Tell us how important it is to your company.

[George Kern (CEO of Breitling)]

It's absolutely fundamental. The U.S. is by far our number one country. We're selling roughly 22, 23% here in, in the U.S. so it's a very important market. The NFL is the ultimate American sports. It has all the values which also respond to, to brightening. It's a team sports is strategic. It's tactical, it's made female. It's a, it's a family gathering. Over 100 million people are watching the super bowl and we are the first luxury brand partnering with the NFL and we are very proud about that.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, so tell me people going to say, well, listen, I Love the NFL. I don't want an nf. What I my team is, is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Can I get a, can I get one that has my team?

[George Kern (CEO of Breitling)]

Absolutely. We will be offering starting tomorrow for every team, a specific watch. Actually two. So the 32 teams will have a specific watch available for the American consumers. And you can buy as many as you want. I know what you must prefer team is you can say it. I'm not going to say it, but we have a watch for you.

[Jim Cramer]

All right. Now, I want people to know. Look, Breitling, one of the things I love about it is it's fantastic style. I think it represents a kind of value that is different from a dollar tree value. It's timeless value. Now these, these watches will be timeless, but they're not inexpensive for most Americans. Yeah.

[George Kern (CEO of Breitling)]

Now our average price today is US$7,200, but we start at roughly three and a half. And by the way, also for the NFL, one of the series will start at three and a half. So we have two price points for the NFL watches to, to bring in and you know, as many consumers as possible.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay. Now one of the things I like about Brightling from when I first met you is you made a commitment to brick and mortar and the United States. You made a commitment to hiring. You made a commitment to spending a lot of money in the US yet somehow I look at the tariffs from the President, I find them quizzical. Maybe you can explain to me why suddenly Switzerland's been hit with some big tariffs.

[George Kern (CEO of Breitling)]

Yes, we are a little bit on the shock. Still under shock. The Switzerland is the country which is investing the most per capita. We are 8, only 8 million people country. We invest the most. We employ 450,000 people here in the United States. We pay the highest wage for is an average $150,000 because we have pharma, we have watches, we have high tech. We are sister country of the U.S. our Constitution was inspired by the U.S. constitution. Something went terribly wrong between, in that famous phone call between President Trump and our president. This has to be fixed, but I'm confident that it will happen what I think so.

[Jim Cramer]

Your stuff is revered, but you're also a company that I think I was witnessed the NFL title that is recognized as the brand in America of the luxury brand. That's how I feel about you now.

[George Kern (CEO of Breitling)]

No, absolutely. And it's very interesting when I go through the customs, the agent is asking me for do you work? I say for brightening. And he believe we're an American brand. We have Been associated to aviation. We have been supporting all public, you know, CIA, FBI, the White House. We are now supporting also the 250 years anniversary US anniversary. Also preparing a watch a limited series in that context. And we have these strong links in the US and we want, want to continue and we are hopeful that these tariff issue will be solved.

[Jim Cramer]

I bet you it will. Now let me ask you, we see the NFL all over the world now. These games, does it matter? Do you think there's a fan base? I went to a beautiful game in London. I mean everyone was wearing all sorts of different colors. They all had. They all like different teams. I tried to tell them, listen, this is an Eagles Jaguar game. No, it's an NFL game. So do you think that all the. When the Duke it in Brazil, when they do it in Frankfurt, will this impact your company?

[George Kern (CEO of Breitling)]

Absolutely. And as you said, the NFL is spreading around the world. There will be games, many games in Europe, but also elsewhere there are hundreds, as I said, hundreds of millions of euros for the super bowl in Europe and in Asia. And it's so impactful and we love it. We will have all the decorations, all our stores will be decorated with the NFL. It's our single biggest investment as a brand worldwide.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, look, I wish you the best of luck with something with a sport that you're absolutely right is the American sport, but it's going to be the worldwide sport because it's so much fun. And yes, I am a proud. I've had this.

[George Kern (CEO of Breitling)]

We have very long time team.

[Jim Cramer]

Jim, where have you. Oh, no, I'll be it, believe me. George Curtis, the CEO of Breitling private company by the way, in China, you're still holding up, Your sales are still holding up.

[George Kern (CEO of Breitling)]

We're getting there. We want to sell in the States.

[Jim Cramer]

Not a big. It's not a.

[George Kern (CEO of Breitling)]

It's selling the States.

[Jim Cramer]

You're here, their money's back. Everybody, it is time. Starting the white and then the lighting round is over. Are you ready? Ski that down the Raven con. Let's start with Paul, New Jersey Paul. Booyah, Jim, Booyah. First, a big thank you to you, Jeff, the rest of your team, for all you do for the club. It's very much appreciated. Thank you. Man. We're working, we're working, we're working. How can I help you right now? Yes. So I used to like period global and if so, is now a good time to start a position? The stock's too low, you got to do some buying. I absolutely, totally agree with you. Hey, by the way, on our Club meeting. Today we do that 10:20, it was Boeing and we said, go with the Boeing, go with the G. It was a very good call. You got to watch the 1020. It's really important. Let's go to Nicholas in New York. Nicholas. Hey, Jim. Booyah. How are you, my friend? I am doing well, thank you for asking. How about you? All right. Pretty good. Excellent. I was just calling in today to ask you your opinion about Hope. So I mean I did the stock that changed my mind for this show when it was at 30, I just said, I can't take it anymore. Every time you get a good headline, the stock goes up and that's exactly what it has. And there are more good headlines ahead by our club. Let's go to Mike in Pennsylvania. Mike, how you doing? Jimmy? President, Jim. When president was his first term, the pandemic started and he decided that he was going to get companies to switch gears and make, make vaccines and everything where we didn't have to depend on foreign countries. I like that. Okay, so here's the problem with it. That's a pure spec stock. Okay. Why did I say, well, it's a pure spec. It's a company that like does not make any money at all and is losing boatloads. If you like it, accept the risk, but otherwise, no go for me. Let's go to Johnny in Washington. Johnny. Hey, Mrs. Kramer, booyah. From Chicola, Washington. Wow, you come in fired up and I like that. I like how you play. How can I help? Hello? Well, I like that. I like the state of Washington, but I also like stocks. It looks like we lost it, but that's okay. Johnny, you back? Here's Johnny. No. Okay, let's go to Pramala in New York. Pramala, tiny. Mr. Kramer, so good to speak with you. I'm glad you call. I'm a big fan of yours. I watch your show regularly every day. Thank you. Thank you so much for imparting your knowledge today. My question is what's your view on tpl? See, I'm not positive on oil right now. That was one of our favorites this year. I'm going to say, you know what, we're just not going to go there. It's just not right to own the oil and gas right now. They're just on the wrong side of the trade now. I'm going to Karen in Kansas. Karen. Hi, Jim, this is Karen from Kansas. All right. I'm a long time viewer and first time caller. Thank you for all your stock market education. Thank you, thank you. Very much. I would like to add a utility stock to my portfolio for growth and dividends. Stock is down 31.1percent since the January California fires. Is this stock a buy? Edison International, eif. Yeah, I am gonna have to put on that. You know, look, I. I just think California's too hard. I just really do. I think it's too hard. Even for Patty Poppy. It's too hard. It's too hard for Patty Poppy. It's too hard for me. Now, she wouldn't say it's too hard, but I think it's too hard. And I don't wanna look. I think it's a little higher risk. If you think. And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the Lightning Round.

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[Jim Cramer]

If you wipe out an industry in this country because it's cheaper to make the stuff overseas, is that a national security risk or are we just astounding for a different time when America was still a manufacturing powerhouse? Last week, the president talked about an ongoing 232 investigation making furniture. 232, mind you, being a national security kind of tariff the president's control over. The president's apparently worried about supply chain risk for furniture. Something. It seems a little strained, but we're in a Cole Porter moment. Anything goes. I've been a huge believer in the need to bring back certain industries from overseas, assuming they're integral to our national defense. That's why I've been so adamant that our country needs its own supply of rare earth minerals rather than being hostage to China. You need to suffer everything from electric batteries to our own fighter jets. It's why I favor tariffs that prevent other countries from dumping steel or aluminum in our market. I'm a fair trader, not a free trader. It's why I want to see semiconductors of the highest order made here at home. All those have a major national security component. But furniture, I don't know. I remember when we were the kings of furniture. First in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and then High Point, North Carolina. The monuments, the chairs and tables were the envy of the world. I'm nostalgic too. Unfortunately, our country is an expensive place to manufacture furniture. Our manufacturers, with the exception of Ethan Allen, have moved on to other, cheaper places without much quality sacrifice. That way they can get you the best quality goods at a fraction of the price. Some call it democratization. It's the bargain of globalization. We sacrifice some jobs here in exchange for cheaper goods. President wants to get those manufacturers back. So do I. I think they might want to come back rather than be tariff to the point where the wares become too expensive. But some of these industries are probably going to come back. Companies would tell you that you can't just invent a workforce that knows how to make upholstery. That ship sailed. Okay, except let's talk about Wayfair, Williams Sonoma and rh. Right, the old restoration Harbor. Face it, the furniture Wayfair is incredibly cheap. It is good enough. Never used to be a problem that most of it was made in China. Tariffs would simply make their goods more expensive. Nothing else would happen because there's no way to bring that part of the furniture industry back. And even if it could, our products wouldn't be competitive unless they were all made by robots, which wouldn't help anyway. I know both William Sonoma and RH are a different story. They make some fine furniture here and they'd like to make more furniture. But it's difficult to find skilled workers to make high quality merchandise. I'm not slagging our workers. The people who used to make furniture simply moved on to other things. Or they retired. A tariff wouldn't go far enough to make them come back. At the end of the day, I'm skeptical that we can bring back the American furniture as we remember it. And even if we could, what would it be worth the cost? I don't know. It's not like a national security need for tables and chairs. Of course we shouldn't write off the entire industry. Ethan Al makes about 75% of the furniture here. This stuff's terrific. Maybe the tires will give them a leg up. That'd be nice. But unless the federal government wants to get into the business of making furniture, forcing the hand of R.H. and Williams Sonoma, it won't make a difference. The industry as a whole. Whole. There will most likely not be a revival of those great furniture cities. I feel nostalgic for those cities. But nostalgia is not a policy. Sometimes you just have to accept that the bargain we made had a lot more downside people's lives who made the stuff than either party thought at the time. I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. Problems are fine. Just for you. Right here made money. I'm Jim Cramer. I'll see you tomorrow.

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All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Univers or their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer CNBC Make It.

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[Jim Cramer]

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