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Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 9/16/25 - Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer | Wave AI Podcast Notes

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 9/16/25

Tue Sep 16 2025

Listen to Jim Cramer’s personal guide through the confusing jungle of Wall Street investing, navigating through opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind - to help you make money. Mad Money Disclaimer

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer — September 16, 2025

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of Mad Money dives deep into the forces driving today's market, particularly the surprising strength and ascendance of bank stocks—most notably J.P. Morgan—as contenders for the next non-tech $1 trillion market cap. Cramer breaks down why banks are soaring, discusses the broader implications of Fed rate policy, hosts a segment with Apple CEO Tim Cook on American manufacturing and tech innovation, and features cybersecurity insights from CrowdStrike's CEO. The show caps off with listener questions, a rapid-fire Lightning Round, and market analysis around data center power players.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Rise of Bank Stocks (J.P. Morgan’s Trillion-Dollar Run)

Cramer’s Big Observation: Contrary to common forecasts, Eli Lilly (big pharma) is no longer likely to be the next non-tech $1T stock; instead, J.P. Morgan (and other banks) are making a strong move ("a run for the roses move that's as breathtaking as it is obscure" – [03:48]).
Market Context:
- J.P. Morgan's market cap sits at $850 billion, up 29% for the year.
- Eli Lilly is stalled, in part due to competition from Novo Nordisk and investor reluctance to buy drug stocks ahead of Fed rate cuts ([04:08]).
Why Banks Are Hot ([05:31]):
- Industry-wide multiple expansion: Investors are paying higher price/earnings ratios for banks for the first time in years.
- Earnings are rising—both P/E ratios and profits are increasing for banks like J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.
- Analyst Mike Mayo's note, "Goliath is Winning," highlights deregulation, robust capital markets, and strong credit quality as tailwinds ([06:40]).
What Makes J.P. Morgan Special? ([07:50]):
- Leadership under Jamie Dimon.
- Breadth in lending, capital markets, trading, and global reach.
- Valuation remains attractive relative to other large caps ([08:38]).
Cramer’s Take: "I'd much rather have a market led by the banks than a market led by big pharma." ([09:48])

2. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Fears

Cramer's “Biggest Worry” ([26:52]):
- A new Fed rate cutting cycle may not work as intended; previous cycles saw long-term rates spike, hurting rate-sensitive stocks despite short-term rate cuts.
- Bond market rebellion is possible if inflation isn’t tamed, the budget deficit haunts, or tariffs push prices up.
What’s Different in 2025?
- Labor market is much weaker now, and the administration may take novel steps (e.g., Treasury shifting bond issuance) ([29:20]).
- Cramer: "Tomorrow the Fed’s likely to start a new rate cutting cycle. And while that should be good for stocks, you've got to keep in mind the possibility that the rate cuts just won’t work." ([32:52])

3. Apple CEO Tim Cook Interview: American Manufacturing & AI

Theme: Apple’s investment in US manufacturing, changing global supply chains, and the future of AI in Apple products ([13:21]–[25:51]).
Key Insights and Quotes:
- On the CEO role:
  “It’s an incredible job and it’s a privilege of a lifetime to have it...I can’t imagine life without it.” — Tim Cook ([14:13])
- On Apple’s US investment strategy:
  “It’s not really bringing it back because that manufacturing was not here to begin with...[but] a lot of advanced manufacturing can be done in this country and be done competitively in this country now.” — Tim Cook ([14:58])
- On AI Criticism:
  "There’s a lot of AI in the iPhone...we integrate AI across our operating system." — Tim Cook ([18:00])
- Apple's partnership with OpenAI, future integration into Siri ([19:26]), and the expectation that AI is "the most profound technology of my lifetime" ([19:52]).
- On EU technology regulation:
  “Unfortunately, the Digital Markets Act is very difficult to navigate...this is an unfortunate side effect of a very rigid regulation.” — Tim Cook ([23:33])
- Career advice for young people:
  “My advice is to follow your passion and find something that helps other people. If you can find the intersection...you can earn a great living.” — Tim Cook ([24:56])

4. CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz on AI Security & Threats

Falcon Conference Key Announcements ([35:26]):
- Protecting AI agents—securing not just human users, but the digital AI “super humans” now operating across networks ([36:23]).
- Acquiring Pangea to bolster AI agent defense.
- Partnering with Salesforce ([39:03]) to secure SaaS and AI agent identities, including giving AIs their own employee IDs.
- Working with Nvidia on autonomous security and the next step toward security AGI (Artificial General Intelligence).
- “If you can have an autonomous car, you can have an autonomous SOC with an autonomous security analyst. And that’s what we’re building...” — George Kurtz ([41:14])

5. Rapid-Fire Listener Q&A & Stock Analysis

Target (TGT) Concerns ([10:08]):
- New CEO transition, tariff worries, and a 33% stock drop put Cramer in “wait and see mode.”
Costco (COST) Long-Term Value ([33:32]):
- Always expensive but worth averaging in; “Buy this slowly...Don’t buy it all at once.” — Cramer ([33:56])
Lightning Round features takes on Apple’s satellite partner GlobalStar, gold mining stocks, and more ([42:34],[43:02]).
Bloom Energy as a Data Center Winner ([44:02]):
- Fuel cell power solutions have surged from obscurity, now vital for data center power needs, explosive stock gains ("up roughly 230% YTD" — [44:02]).
- Cramer regretful for missing the wave but advises patience: "At this point, I think all I can do is wait for a better entry point..." ([46:05])

Memorable Quotes & Moments

The Banks’ Resurgence

"A bank stock putting on that kind of market cap right on the eve of an incredibly important Fed meeting—what's going on here?"
— Jim Cramer, [03:55]

“At the end of the day, the price/earnings multiple is the arbiter of what’s cheap and what’s expensive on next year’s earnings estimates. And you’re talking cheap, cheap, cheap.”
— Jim Cramer, [09:07]

Apple’s Manufacturing Philosophy

“We’re an American company, and we’re a proud American company, and we want to do as much in the United States as we can, not only for product we sell in this country, but for product that we sell around the world.”
— Tim Cook, [16:25]

"I see AI as the most profound technology of my lifetime."
— Tim Cook, [19:52]

On the Dangers of AI in Cybersecurity

“AI is democratizing destruction. It’s making it easier and faster for the adversaries to be able to get in and look legitimate...”
— George Kurtz, [38:41]

"We have customers now that are actually assigning employee IDs to AI agents."
— George Kurtz, [39:22]

Navigating the Fed & Markets

"My biggest fear is that once the Fed starts cutting rates, we’ll see the same thing we saw a year ago...the rate cuts ended up being totally counterproductive and self-defeating."
— Jim Cramer, [26:52]

Timestamps for Important Segments

[03:53] — Cramer opens on the trillion-dollar chase, bank stock surge, and market leadership.
[10:08] — Caller question on Target (TGT), CEO transition, and tariffs.
[13:21]–[25:51] — In-depth Tim Cook (Apple) interview: US manufacturing, AI strategy, regulation.
[26:52] — Cramer on Fed fears and long vs. short rates.
[33:32] — Caller on Costco, long-term buy philosophy.
[35:26] — George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO) on AI security, partnerships, and cyber threats.
[42:34] — Lightning Round (quick stock Q&A).
[44:02] — Cramer’s analysis of Bloom Energy in data center buildouts.

Summary Flow & Tone

Cramer’s signature energetic, opinionated, and educational tone guides listeners through the complexities of market dynamics—from the parade of bank stocks breaking out, to Apple’s strategic commitment to US manufacturing and AI leadership, to the evolving challenges in cybersecurity. The episode is packed with actionable insight, big-picture analysis, and lively Q&A—always aiming to help listeners “make a little money” and navigate the twists of Wall Street.

For New Listeners

This episode is a must-listen for investors curious about the unusual rise of financials, the behind-the-scenes of Apple’s US manufacturing push and AI integration, defense strategies against new cyber threats, and the practical impact of central bank decisions on your portfolio. Cramer keeps it real—expect a blend of sharp skepticism, humility about missed calls, and hope for the next big opportunity.

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Transcript

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Podcast Host (Only Murders in the Building) (1:01)

Welcome to Only Murders in.

Jim Cramer (1:03)

The Building the Official Podcast.

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How can you not be funny crawling.

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Mad Money Disclaimer Narrator (1:29)

Sam.

Jim Cramer (1:53)

Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Crame America. Other people may Friends I'm just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just to entertain, but to teach. Put it in context. So call me at 1-800-743- CNBC. Tweet me imkramer not that long ago, pretty much everybody assumed that the next non tech stock to cross the trillion dollar threshold would be the stock of Eli Lilly. Why not? They've developed a weight loss and diabetes wonder drug with incredible prospect. This market plays many tricks on us every day, including today where The Dow dipped 126 points as we declined 0.13% and the Nasdaq edge down 0.07%. The anomaly this time it looks like the next trillion dollar stock won't be Eli Lilly. If anything, it's more likely to be the stock of J.P. morgan, a bank. Right now, Lilly's market capitalization is roughly $724 billion, but JP Morgan's at just over 850. 50 billion. Up 29% for the year. Meanwhile, Lilly's down oh so slightly. To me, this is a monumental move, people. A bank stock putting on that kind of market cap right on the eve of an incredibly important Fed meeting where everyone seems to be expecting a quarter point rate cut despite a recent uptick in inflation. What's going on here? First, understand the trillion dollar barrier is really hard to cross. Right now there are only nine members of the club in video at an astonishing 4.2%, 4.2 trillion. Then Microsoft close behind a 3.8 trillion Apple 3.5 trillion Alphabet which just crossed the $3 trillion threshold. Amazon at $2.5 trillion. Matt at $2 trillion. Broadcom at $1.7 trillion. And there comes Tesla yen, $1.4 trillion. And at last, hanging on by a thread is Berkshire Hathaway at $1.06 trillion. They're all more or less tech companies except for Berkshire. Oh, I thought Lilly would be next. The GOP Dash ones are just that huge. Today, Lilly announced plans to build a $5 billion manufacturing plant in Richmond, Virginia. As we told members of the investing club this morning, this facility marks the first of four, four American plans for targeting cancer and autoimmune drugs. They also need another plan for the pill version of the GLP1 drug, which hasn't been approved yet, but could turn out to be much bigger than the current injectable version of the drug. When you consider all the indications for this thing, including the already approved chronic weight management, diabetes and obstructive sleep apnea indications, and the fact that it might be approved for heart failure, hypertension and even chronic kidney disease, well, you can see why the betting line favored Lulu across the trillion dollar finish line first. But Lilly stock has been stalled in part because it has a vicious, some would say desperate, rival in the form of Novo Nordisk, which is doing quite poorly but has a very good compound. Plus, you aren't supposed to buy drug stocks if the Fed's going to cut interest rates. They are toxic at this point in the business cycle because it should accelerate the economy. So you should avoid so called safety drug stocks. And of course, the President seems to be hostile to the industry. They're building plants in America that could help Lily. Meanwhile, like a horse that's bided its time but is now at the far turn, J.P. morgan stock is putting on a run for the roses move that's as breathtaking as it is obscure what's propelling it first. It's not the only bank that's making a ferocious move. Citigroup for example, which had been in the doldrums for so so long, just crossed the $100 mark. What a 43% rally for the Citigroup star. That's a remarkable move in itself. Wells Fargo and Bank of America have been climbing to up more than 15% each. The so called investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been running like crazy with Goldman up 37%, Morgan Stanley of 24%. But if you ask me, the real rocket fuel, it's the expansion of what we call the price to earnings multiple or what we will pay for the company's earnings. Right now people are simply willing to pay more for the banks. We don't talk enough about the P E price to earnings multiple around here. A topic to which I spend a lot of time. Time in my next book, believe me, how to Make Money in Any Market comes out in two weeks because it's just so darn important. See, I don't think people realize that the price earnings multiple is at the heart. It's the fundament about how stocks trade. The multiple can rise even when the earnings estimates stay the same. That's called multiple expansion. It can move up a stock. Or the multiple can stay the same when the earnings estimates rise, which gives you a higher stock price too. In the case of the banks, it's both. That's right, both the earnings are going up and the price earnings multiples increase. See, at the same time it's remarkable because we're less than 24 hours away from a Fed meeting that would normally upset the financials if it backfires. And if you want to know what it means for a rate cut to backfire, stay tuned for the rest of the show. Right now though, the market's saying that the Fed doesn't matter to the bank stocks, which is nuts because the Fed matters immensely to the actual banks. Now some of that is because of this multiple expansion I just referred to. JP Morgan stock has been consistently selling for about 414 times its earnings for many, many years. Dramatically lower than the 22 times earnings bogey of the S&P 500. But it's been levitating alongside the earnings estimates all year. Now JP Morgan sells for 15.7 times this year's numbers, up from 14. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also making gigantic moves. They now sell at 16.9 and 17.5 times earnings respectively. It is what we call a wholesale revision and it's only gaining steam now. Kudos to Mike Mayo, the uber bullish bank analyst at Wells Fargo who has a terrific piece out just today entitled Goliath is Winning. He upped his price targets for all these banks, making it very clear that the capital markets are really getting hot with some terrific tailwinds like Trump, deregulation, even credit quality, which has been remarkably good during this period. His favorite has been Citigroup, which CEO Jane Fraser has rescued from Murray obscurity. Recall, I happen like Wells Fargo where Mayo toils because CEO Charlie Sharp has resurrected this bank, this time from regulatory hardship. That said, JP Morgan's got something special. It excels at so many things. Lending, capital markets, trading and perhaps most important, statesmanship. With CEO Jamie Dimon performing at a level that's rare for any industry. JP Morgan has always been a top quality bank, but it's now become a fantastic place to work and its global reach is unmatched. There's a reason its market cap is so much bigger than the other major banks. Can this continue? I have to tell you, if you look at the forward multiple, meaning how much JP Morgan's trading on versus next year's earnings estimates, the answer is a resounding yes. Because this one sells for just 15 times the 2026 estimates. That's puny. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley trade at roughly the same levels. But Wells Fargo, bank of America and Citigroup sell it ridiculously low, around 10 to 12 times next year's numbers. That's not sustainable. It's going to go higher. At the end of the day the price journeys multiple is the arbiter of what's cheap and what's expensive on next year's earnings estimates. And you're talking cheap, cheap, cheap. So yeah, my original prediction will likely be wrong. Eli well is probably not the next non tech stock to cross the trillion dollar barrier. But man, what a way to be wrong. I'd much rather have a market led by the banks and a market led by big pharma. The bottom line, I've been waiting for years for the banks to get higher priced earnings multiples. They're incredibly important to the broader market. When the banks are winning, it's a terrific sign for the overall trading. Remember this tomorrow if the averages take a hit from the Fed because once multiple expansion starts, it's not easy reverse we might be okay. These are hard fought moves and I bet that they're just at the beginning. Julio in Pennsylvania. Julio.

Jim Cramer (26:52)

Tomorrow afternoon we'll find out the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Like most people, I'm expecting a quarter point cut because over the past month and a half we've learned that the labor market has weakened substantially since the spring. But tonight, as we get set to embark on a new rate cutting cycle, I want to spend just a couple of minutes talking about one of my greatest fears, fears for this market. My biggest worry right now is that once the Fed starts cutting rates, we'll see the same thing we saw a year ago. Yes, almost exactly a year ago. Date short rates go lower, that's the ones that the Fed controls. But long rates, the long term interest rates, the one set by the bond market, soar higher. The rate cuts ended up being totally counterproductive and self defeated. Let's go through what happened last year because it's the Nightmare scenario for 2025. Almost exactly one year ago, the Fed blessed us with a generous double rate cut, then followed up with 2 more regular rate cuts in November December. But almost exactly when the rate hikes began, long term interest rates started climbing. It was a bond market rebellion. Look at this chart of the 10 year treasury yield dating back to the beginning of 2024 for last year's has started to become clear that the first rate cuts were coming. The yield in the 10 year tumbled from north of 4.7% in April to a low of just under 3.6% in mid September. Crucially, that low was set the day before the Fed announced its first rate cut. And then almost immediately after that cut, the yield on the ten year started screaming higher. By the end of October it was at nearly 4.3%. By the end of December it was just under 4%.6% and it kept going until mid January when it finally peaked at just over 4.8%. After that the 10 year yield was pretty volatile, falling quickly as the market sold off earlier this year and briefly falling below 4% during the post Liberation Day washout in April before quickly bouncing back, Then stabilizing the 4.2 to 4.4 range where it was for most of the summer. It's only this month that the 10 year yield fell below that level level once again in anticipation of another rate cut cycle from the Fed starting again. We saw the same thing with the 30 year, except the 30 year didn't actually peak until May and it hasn't pulled back as much from the highs. By the way, the 30 year just that's what the mortgages are really priced off of. So again, my biggest concern is that the same thing happens this time around, that we kick off a new rate cutting cycle tomorrow with a 0.25 basis point cut. And then the Fed loses control of long term interest rates rates. Why am I so worried about this? Because pretty much all the stocks that are hostage to interest rates have been rallying nicely of late. And if long rates start rising again, I think they're all going to roll over. Yeah, think about the homebuilders with the iShares US Home Construction ETF up almost 20% since the end of June, the 30 year treasury yield screams higher again. Those gains will disappear. Same goes for the automakers, the material stocks and the non data center industrials. From my perspective that could be a disaster for this high flying market. But how likely is it that we'll get that repeat of last year? Thankfully there are some similarities but some differences. One of the main reason I'm worried about this is the simple fact we haven't really defeated inflation. Long rate spiked last year because when the Fed started cutting, inflation heated up again. The Consumer Price Index grew by just 2.4% last September but by January was going at a 3% clip again. And look, the CPI came in at 2.9% in August, the highest level since January. This remains a real problem. That's why when Jay Powell spoke at Jackson Hill last month he talked about the balance of risk. The Fed has no good choices this week. Inflation's too high, but the labor market's also deteriorating too rapidly for Powell to do nothing. Problem is the bond market doesn't like it when the Fed cuts rates during a period of heightened inflation. On top of that, we still don't quite know what the tariffs are going to do to prices. There's a sense that some companies have been holding the line on prices for a few months in part because of front loaded imports and in part by sacrificing margin for the time being. But at some point those companies might have to give in and raise prices as well. Third, the bond guys worry about the budget deficit and that certainly hasn't improved versus last year. Many would argue that it's gotten worse if the President's one big beautiful bill act. When longer term treasury yields spiked last year, we started hearing about weaker demand for U.S. treasuries for the first time in ages. That hasn't been much of an issue lately. But if the bond market starts carrying out the budget deficit again, oh man, that's a real problem. That's why I am worried. Then again though, this year might really be different. For starters, the labor market seems to be materially weaker this time around. The headline unemployment rate may not be all that different. It was 4.3% in August of this year from 4.1% last September. But over the last four months we've added just 27,000 jobs per month on average. A year ago is 1,000. It was 110,000 per month in the four months leading up to the first rate cut, what a monumental difference. The weakness in the labor market seems real and it reflects some hidden weaknesses in the economy that then we won't likely get a repeat of last year. While I wouldn't call that a good outcome, it's an outcome that will prevent the all important bond market from going insane. Secondly, things are different. Well, President Trump wants to bring interest rates down by any means necessary. I'm not sure how we can apply pressure to the bond market, but you know what, I wouldn't put it past him. Plus the action, the bond market a year ago didn't really affect stocks until the Fed stopped cutting rates in December. That was the peak. Now that Trump's getting more of his own guys, the Federal Reserve, I think they're less likely to stop cutting once they start. There are also other measures that we could see from the administration to try to push longer term rates lower. The Treasury Department could start selling fewer long term bonds, utilizing more short term bonds to fund the government. That's actually something that treasury is already doing under Besson and they've indicated that they'll keep up the strategy for at least the next several quarters. Maybe that makes a difference. But here's the bottom line. Tomorrow the Fed's likely to start a new rate cutting cycle. And while that should be good for stocks, you've got to keep in mind the possibility that the rate cuts just won't work. That's what happened last year. It could happen again. I don't know if it will, but it's something you need to keep an eye on. As long as you're prepared, you'll have a much easier time handling any twist the bond market market might throw at us. After we get the Fed's verdict. Let's take some calls. Let's start with Jose in Florida. Jose.

Jim Cramer (43:02)

But look, I have to tell you, if it's gold, it's going higher. You know, I'm a believer. I've been saying it over and over and gold's a great place to be, but my favorite is Agnico week. Well, my second is new. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the Lightning Round. The Lightning Round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. I got a call yesterday about Bloom Energy, a company that makes novel hydrogen fuel cell systems for on site power generation that can be used in the data center. You hire them and they're said to turn around the order in 90 days while your data center is up and ready. Now, I've always admired Bloom's technology, but frankly, I never thought much of its stock because the company's been a chronic money loser for years. The stock did nothing and eventually I stopped paying attention to it. That was wrong. And now we've got still one more reason why Oracle. If you want to Build as many data centers as Oracle is planning to. You need turnkey power because we know that electricity is the biggest gating factor for these behemoths. We hear it again and again. Data centers burn hot. The grid isn't prepared for them. We heard it from Wendell Weeks when we were at Cornings plant in Harrodsburg, Kentucky last week. And we heard it from Bob Pro Goddard from Jacob Solutions just yesterday on our show, which helps design and build data centers. It's the endless refrain traced all the way back to Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, who's on a mission to provide more computing power with less energy. Although right now that's a tall order. It's all come together for Bloom Energy over the past spring, the company, which has been around for 24 years, suddenly seems like an overnight sensation. You got your first clue that this move was for real late last year when the Straight shooters and American Legal Eagle American Electric Power announced strategic partnership with Bloom. This past June, the main power regulator in Ohio approved the first on site power generation projects in the state, quitting one where Bloom and AP will install on site fuel cells for Amazon Web Services. That's a huge data center company. It only gets better from there, as Oracle signed a partnership with Bloom in July to get power faster, cheaper, better for its data centers. In short, after being a severe disappointment for years, Bloom is now one of the great success stories of this remarkable era, thanks to the strength of the data center. All you can say is to the CEO KR Sridhar is congratulations on sticking with it. The company's everything you ever said it would be. This is mad money. How about the stock? Like so many other small cap that provide key parts and power to the data center, it's going ballistic. Not just parabolic, but ballistic. It's up roughly 230% year to date, going from 25 to $72 since the latter part of July when the latest deal with Oracle was announced. When I got the call about Bloom yesterday, I recognized that the company had four finally exploded on the scene. Like so many other big speculative winners, my conclusion was a simple one. I missed it. Therefore, it's not my cup of tea. All day. Though I've been wondering whether that's actually true. I mean, Bloom's a $17 billion company now with promising contracts and a pedigree of fantastic technology. Like so many of these data center adjacencies, they're remarkable with lifetime moves in a handful of days. At this point, I think all I can do is wait for a better entry point though, and console myself with the fact that I've been recommending the blue chip in the group Nova to club members. I know that for some of the data center builders there's still some skepticism about Bloom. I got that from my research and the caveats are necessary because the task is monumental. I don't know if Bloom is necessarily up to it might be so big in retrospect. Just as I blessed all nuclear when Aqua was in the 30s, it's now at $95 and change. I should have said the same thing about Bloom Energy as well as other novels fuel investments. But after this huge move, I worry about recommending Bloom because I don't want to hurt you. That said, Bloom could be very real. It just happened so fast that I didn't grasp it and now the easy money's obviously already made. So many doubters have surfaced of late about this theme. I was skeptical too. Still tired as it sounds, I think you have to wait for a pullback for Bloom like the one Nuclear is experiencing right now and admit darn it all. With AP's endorsement, I should have recommended Bloom Energy to you. I didn't. My bad. Let's get the next one. I like to say there's always bull market somewhere. I promise. Try to find it just for you right here on Mad Money. I'm Jim Cramer and I'll see you tomorrow.