'Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 9/2/25

Summary

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Mad Money with Jim Cramer – September 2, 2025

Main Theme

On this episode of Mad Money, Jim Cramer unpacks a turbulent day on Wall Street, marked by a broad sell-off in both stocks and bonds. He explores the reasons behind the market downturn, reflects on historical trends for September, and offers perspective on how investors can navigate volatility. The show also features in-depth analysis of Hasbro's surprising outperformance, technical warnings about market sentiment and risk, a revealing interview with the new CEO of Signet Jewelers, and the ever-popular Lightning Round stock Q&A. The evolving stories of activist investing in consumer stocks and sector rotations round out a timely discussion for uncertain markets.

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1. Market Turmoil and September Seasonality

Turbulent Start to September

• [02:14] Jim Cramer laments a day when "everything went wrong," describing market weakness across stocks, bonds, and negative news headlines.
• The Dow dropped 249 points, S&P down 0.69%, Nasdaq lost 0.82%, despite a late rally.

Seasonality: September Is Infamous

• Cramer reminds listeners that September is typically the worst month for stocks:

  "Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell. Four out of the last five years, September has been down. It's averaged a decline of 2% for the last decade. Horrendous, a bear could say. I rest my case." ([02:50])

Why the September Drop?

• Fund managers take profits after good years.
• Tax considerations for funds with fiscal years ending soon.
• “I did it every year at my hedge fund when I was up this big at this time, I was done. Yeah, finished for the year." ([03:30])

Bad News Galore

• Court ruling challenges the President's tariffs—potential for budget fallout and bond market anxiety.
• Anxiety ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll report.
• Ongoing global tensions involving China, Russia, and India cast further doubt.

Cramer’s Guidance Amidst the Panic:

• Don’t react rashly to one bad day.
• Selling in panic leads to missed rallies:

  “If you know what you own and why you own it, these days are just garden variety pullbacks. The kind that's rain rain for your garden.” ([07:39])

Investment Discipline

• Remind yourself of the strength of big tech and why they command high valuations.
• Wait for entry opportunities, not whipsaw trades.

• "Trust the companies you believe in. Trust the market. That's the only way to make big money in stocks long term." ([10:58])

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2. Lightning Round: Cramer’s Buy/Sell/Hold Opinions

A rapid-fire Q&A with callers seeking Jim's opinion on specific stocks.

Select Highlights

• Dutch Bros (BROS) Entry Point

  "Because I like this stock so much. The answer is yes." ([11:53])

• Citigroup

  "Citi's fine. It's a good buy. I do like Wells Fargo more, but Citi's been just a gigantic winner." ([12:28])

• Micron (MU): Wait & Watch

  • "I prefer other stocks ... but I feel off because I like Sanjay Broder so much." ([30:51])

• Reddit

  "Steve Huffman is the most self-effacing of great CEOs of this generation. ... Hold on to the stock. It's a winner." ([32:17])

• Dr. Horton (DHI) & Toll Brothers (TOL)

  "I like Dr. Horton. ... And I raise you with Toll Brothers." ([43:56])

• Lamar Advertising

  "Not my favorite. I think appetizer is not a good business. But that is the best of the lot." ([44:42])

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3. Hasbro: The Unlikely Winner in Consumer Discretionary

[15:43]
Cramer spotlights Hasbro as a standout in a troubled sector:

• Up more than 42% this year; rival Mattel up just 2%.
• Transition from toys (low margin) toward high-margin gaming, led by Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons.
• Impressive earnings:
  • "More than 70% earnings go up for heaven. So 70% 7 0."
• Digital games have little tariff exposure; company’s sales mix is improving rapidly.

  "Their games are high margin. The toys, what can I say? They're very low margin. And that's a real tough business." ([20:06])

• Stock still trades at low multiples given its growth and transformation.

Key Insight:

"We think of it as a toy maker, right? But its main business is now tabletop and digital games ... this is a gaming stock that still trades like a toy maker, which is why I think it's got much more room to run." ([21:50])

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4. Off the Charts: Are We Due for a Correction?

[23:35]
With technical analyst Carly Garner, Cramer examines whether market euphoria (especially in risk assets like stocks and crypto) is hitting unsustainable levels.

Key Points:

• Too many bulls and too few bears—potentially an overcrowded trade.
• Investors shunning bonds in favor of red-hot stocks and crypto.
• Excessive use of AI for stock picking:

  "Please, I'm begging you, don't take investment advice from AI." ([25:10])

Chart Analysis & Warning Signs

• S&P 500 futures hitting long-term resistance; technical indicators suggest momentum is waning.
• Bitcoin has been leading the S&P 500 on upside and downside; if it fails to rebound, stocks could follow.

• "The downside risk far outweighs the upside profit potential. That's why she's recommending taking something off the table." ([28:50])

• September and early autumn seasonality is especially dangerous.

Cramer’s Bottom Line:

• Stay disciplined, don’t chase, but also don’t get blown out in a correction and never get back in.

  "Stay the course. I've seen too many people get blown out right here and never get back in." ([29:30])

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5. Executive Interview: J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet Jewelers

[34:05]
Cramer interviews the new chief of Signet (parent of Kay Jewelers, Zales, Jared) following strong earnings:

Notable Themes:

• "Taylor and Travis" (Swift/Kelce) engagement has boosted consumer focus on engagement rings and love-related jewelry.

• Brand segmentation — Jared for luxury/custom, Zales for fashion/self-purchase, Kay for milestone occasions.

• Lab-grown diamonds are expanding the affordability and reach of diamond jewelry.

  "Lab-grown diamonds are a category extender for fashion ... really makes it accessible for people every day." ([37:15])

• Managing impact of high gold prices: high-value purchases less price sensitive, lower-end more affected.

• E-commerce brands growing; Blue Nile brick-and-mortar stores are an innovation.

• Ongoing share buybacks as a way to return value.

Cramer’s Take:

• The company's transformation and agility under new leadership are strong positives, especially after this quarter's "healthy revenue beat and enormous earnings beat." ([34:05])

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6. Market Activism: Elliott’s Stake in PepsiCo

[45:09]
Cramer weighs in on Elliott Management’s activist position in PepsiCo:

• Activism isn’t about "gunslingers"—Elliott is disciplined, does its homework, and wants to unlock value.
• PepsiCo’s historic premium to Coca-Cola has faded.
• Brands like Frito Lay may struggle in the GLP-1 diet drug era; other subsidiaries are underperforming or scattered.
• Leadership needs to focus, not try to be "all things to all people."

  "There has to be a core to the business, and I don't feel there's a core there anymore." ([46:23])

Cramer’s Advice:

• CEOs should welcome smart activists and treat them like free management consultants.
• PepsiCo may benefit from broader engagement, but the company needs to reevaluate its brand strategy to regain its premium.

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7. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On market panic:

  “Selling creates and begets more selling. And those who don't know what they own get blown out.” ([07:11])

• On tech leadership:

  "The answer is because they're the best and they can weather anything. Tariffs, global craziness, antitrust, Chinese genius, you name it." ([09:22])

• On staying the course:

  "Days like today are the reason why an Apple or Microsoft or yes Nvidia haven't made more people millionaires. ... You have to trust the companies you believe in. Trust the market." ([10:58])

• On Hasbro’s transformation:

  “Basically Hasbro's gaming division is simply a much better business. It's, it's growing faster, it's more profitable. So as this becomes more, more of a gaming play and less of a toy play, of course the stock deserves to go higher.” ([21:10])

• On lab-grown diamonds:

  “When you get particularly in engagement rings below $2,000, that's about maximum emotional value. And that's where Lab really has played.” — J.K. Semansky ([37:15])

• On activism at PepsiCo:

  "If I were running the company, I definitely want to brainstorm with Elliott. PepsiCo can and again will be if they listen, the premium food and beverage company, but not if it keeps being run the way it's managed now." ([47:16])

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8. Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening Market Recap & September Warning: [02:14]–[11:22]
• Lightning Round: [11:22]–[13:31], [41:03]–[44:59]
• Hasbro Analysis: [15:43]–[22:13]
• Technical Analysis w/ Carly Garner: [23:35]–[30:42]
• Signet CEO Interview: [34:05]–[40:39]
• PepsiCo Activist Commentary: [45:09]–[48:33]

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9. Takeaway and Cramer’s Advice

• Don’t let market panics push you out of quality holdings.
• Know what you own — and why.
• Beware September’s volatility, and take a prudent approach (consider booking some gains if overexposed).
• Focus on companies with momentum, resilience, and management vision, like Hasbro and Signet.
• Recognize the value (and limitations) of technical and AI-based trading.
• Watch for constructive activist involvement in consumer stocks.

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Summary prepared for listeners seeking a clear, insightful map of Cramer’s actionable advice and the evolving market landscape.

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Transcript

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[Jim Cramer]

Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to MAV Money. Welcome to Crame America. Other people make friends. I'm just trying to save you a little money. My job is not just to entertain. It's to educate. It's to teach you. So call me at 173cnbc. Tweet me at Jim Cramer. Sometimes everything goes wrong. Today, everything went wrong. And I mean everything. Stocks, bonds, newslow counter, you name it. Which is why The Dow tumbled 249 points. SB lost 0.69%. Nasdaq dropped.82%. And this came after a big rally into the close. How could everything be most foul and yes. How can we still profit from it? Let us count the wayward ways and try to make sense of this market in what seems like a sense of world, but is not. First, this is the first day of a notorious trading month, September, where the market has historically performed very poorly. On average, it's the worst of pretty much all 12 months. Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell. For out of the last five years, September has been down. It's averaged a decline of 2% for the last decade. Horrendous, a bear could say. I rest my case. Why is it like this? For starters, lots of reasons having to do with how the year unfolds. In a good year like this one, big institutions take a look at how much they're up and they axiomatically take profits. Silly. No, it's being responsible. I did it every year at my hedge fund when I was up this big at this time, I was done. Yeah, finished for the year. If you want in, you can't give anything back. I sold many of the positions that were in my trading account. I had some investments I did. And trade right at this point of the year and just day traded until January. By the way, when do you think I got this idea? I was alone. Almost all the big guns did the same thing I was taught. Many mutual funds also have years that end in October, so they have to take profits before that for taxes. Knowing that some big funds try to get ahead of their end of the year calendar year moves and the calendar is lying. Second, the news flow is insanely bad right now. A Federal circuit judge, I'm sorry, a court, not the highest court in the land though, but definitely a high one, ruled that the President's tariffs aren't legal. Hold it now. There was a time when this ruling would have been cheered by Wall street, but they only saw the ban of tariffs, none of the potential positives. In the eyes of most experts, the tariffs were never going to be able to raise any real money either. But you know what? That did turn out to be wrong. The tariffs are raising billions, which helps to offset the cost of the President's big beautiful budget bill. Again, Wall street hated the tariffs when they proposed and mostly still hate them now. But now that the tariff revenue might have to be refunded, the bond market's freaking out about the budget deficit. Plus the President's team put the fear of the devil into us. So there was no way this negative could be ignored. But the stuff that they said about what could happen was just atrocious. It sure look some of it could happen. But now we have to depend on the Supremes where I'm guessing Trump wins because he appointed a third of these people. But then again the courts always jump all go. Ask FDR about that. The bonds of course were hideous. We have a big non farm labor report on Friday and the market's almost always turning negative now ahead of any big number.

[Caller]

Why?

[Jim Cramer]

Because unless everything's non inflationary, quite a rarity, the Fed may look at these numbers and pause its plans for rate cuts. That means a raucous flow of news that bodes poorly for the Fed in general and Fed chief Jay Powell in particular. Something the market now really hates because it makes for this big really nasty ad hominem backdrop and we're tired of it. President could get his way on lower rates soon enough, but, well, that's not soon enough for him. When treasury yields go higher like this, economy's in danger of faltering. The stocks that did rally today were mostly the so called wrong ones. The defenseless bargain basement retailers that supposedly offer value like the dollar stores or offer real value like the closeout stores. The former has tariff exposure, but that could go away with the squirt really. The latter sell goods where the tariffs already been paid by the original importers. People jumped out of the cycles in a perma growth. This typical rotation that can last a couple of sessions at most. More on that in a moment. Remember what I'm talking about is, is that they sell the cyclicals to buy say General Mills. Even though General Mills isn't doing that. Well, it doesn't matter. Campbell's Soup, you get me. Safety first also means buying companies to get the, well let's say get the consumers wariness first among equals being McDonald's which is central to the veils of everyday American air war. And this morning and they're told a story about cutting prices. The worst stocks today, as the fits of the horrendous wave of profit taking are the best ones of the year. That's what I told you about. When you get to this point in the year, you start bringing the register, which means the artificial intelligence components we all know about, namely Nvidia and its components. Remember the long knives which I have to start having a backdrop of long knives. I don't think you get knives into the exchange, but long knives are what is out for video. These stocks are so used they could swing the entire market. In this tape one company can be so big with so many tentacles that it can cast a poll and everything else. Finally, we have the requisite worldwide negatives the axis of evil doers, with China, Russia and now India being thick as thieves, a story that the mainstream media hails as a major breakdown for the Trump administration's foreign policy. Meanwhile, we have a plethora of stories that contend that China's way ahead of us, are gaining on us or doing much better than us. Or maybe we're stupid and they're smart. Okay? They own autonomous cars better than we do. What? Blah blah blah. I always feel inferior these days when I listen to these stories. So what do we make of these? First, let's not jump to conclusions based on a single session. We've seen this way station so many times and only ends up in the old winners resuming their advance. Unfortunately, people get shaken out by these rotations so they miss the next leg up of the next leg of the Upside. The fear instilled by commentators, analysts and journalists or often makes it way too hard for most investors who are out there. Stay put. I hope you don't listen to them. Selling creates and begets more selling. And those who don't know what they own get blown out. If you know what you own and why you own it, these days are just garden variety pullbacks. The kind that's rain rain for your garden. Now, my poor garden has not been attended to. Then again for good reasons, as I attended the wedding of our research director Ben Stodo, out in the mountains of Colorado this weekend. Mazel Tov. Best wishes. Whatever you want to say. Second best course of action. You just need to sit on your hands and watch. Don't bite on what's rallied. You won't be rewarded. There's no recession coming. That's just a typical throw off the scent move. Food stocks simply don't cut it. Sorry, you wouldn't have. You don't have shareholder activism and just sent in a group like we have in the food and beverage industry if things are going well. Third, when you hear that the big tech stocks have ridiculous valuations, how many times you read that need to be thinking how did they get that way to begin with? The answer is because they're the best and they can weather anything. Tariffs, global craziness, antitrust, Chinese genius, you name it. My strategy has been to wait and wait another day and start buying them. There's always a catalyst that turns things around with these growth stocks. Maybe it's Broadcom. Hey, maybe it's Z scale. I've got to close. By the way, Broadcom is a $1.4 trillion company and it rallied from down 10 points in the a.m. dec close up 85 cents. Sometimes the words for my strategy happen extraordinarily fast. Look at what happened after the close. Alphabet got a shockingly favorable antitrust ruling from a judge I thought hated them. They wanted to divest Chrome, they want to be broken up in some punitive way for shareholders. And they can still make payments to preload Google even if they can't have exclusive contracts. Now this is a huge win for Alphabet, but it's also a big one for Apple which got paid billions, Perhaps more than 20 billion a year to preload Google on their devices. Most wags thought for sure Apple would lose this source of revenue and numbers would have to be cut immediately. It could get even better. We keep hearing, including from me, that Apple has to buy. Perhaps a perplexity to be more of turnkey with with Siri. But with this ruling the tables can be turned. Apple can make a deal with one of the bots for that bot to be the exclusive on Apple's 2 billion devices. But get this. Now that that bot company they'll have to pay Apple because it's legal. What a turnabout. Hey, maybe another 20 billion headed Apple's way. Maybe more. Those who sold Apple earlier because of a minor story of a departure of another researcher ultimately missed the big picture. This is how you don't become a millionaire reacting to those kinds of stories. Don't be silly. There's a takeaway for you finally remember who's coming the Calgary in the form of lower interest rates and the big beautiful bills can of stimulus. This thing was packed with handouts to industry and that's great for the stock market. Here's the bottom line. I made a big study of days like today from my book which comes out at the end of the month how to make money in any market. Days like today are the reason why an Apple or Microsoft or yes Nvidia haven't made more people millionaires. Days like today are spiriting, dispiriting, they're painful and they usually aren't alone. You have to trust the companies you believe in. Trust the market. That's the only way to make big money in stocks long term. And it happens every time. There's been a sell off like today since 1982 when I first walked down Wall street on my way to Goldman Sachs Manal in Georgia.

[Caller]

Manal thank you Mr. Kramer for taking my call. Of course US tariff on Brazil coffee beans is 50% which has increased retail prices of coffee. Dutch Bros. Declared adding adding about 64 locations in the US and have added to the breakfast menu. My question is, in your opinion, is it a good point of entry in Dutch Bros. Considering the tariffs?

[Jim Cramer]

I'm going to say that because I like this stock so much. The answer is yes. But as good as it is, I think people are losing track of a note that I talked about this morning about pumpkin latte and Starbucks. Yes, we've all had some problems with Starbucks being late, blah blah blah. But imagine this, we're still going there and this pumpkin latte is very strong. SB ux Zach in Ohio.

[Caller]

Zach hey Jim, I appreciate you taking my call. I was wondering your thoughts on Citigroup. Looks like it had broken above some previous resistance around 80. If you think it could benefit from.

[Jim Cramer]

This administration, I think Citi's fine. I think Citi's fine. It's a good buy here. I do like Wells Fargo more, but Citi's been just a gigantic winner. Good callers. You have to trust the market for long term in this game. That's the only way to make big money. Don't be the millionaire not next door on Man Money today. It hasn't been all fun and games for the consumer discretionary stocks unless your Hasbro. I'm detailing how the company has set itself apart from others in the group and why. Still there's not a lot more room to run then as I just said, historically September is not a good month for the average. So should you should investors prepare their portfolios to get defensive? I'm going off the charts by now and we know that Taylor Swift is the ultimate influencer. But now her engagement has influenced Signet stock. I'm hearing more about the impact and how the company is planning for a potential engagement boom with the CEO. So stay with Kramer.

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[Jim Cramer]

Tonight I want to talk about one of the market's unlikeliest leaders, Hasbro, the iconic maker of toys and games. Here's a stock that's up more than 42% for the year. At a time when the entire consumer discretionary group is in the doghouse and its closest rival, Mattel, is up 2%. This is a tricky moment for anything consumer related. Yet Hasbro's on fire. It's up more than 60% from its post Liberation Day lows. So how the heck did they pull this off? Regular viewers might have seen this one coming because the CEO Chris Cox on the show in early March after Hasbro reported Greg quote quarter and then again in early May after the Post Liberation Day washout. It was real clear. It was real clear. After talking with him. He's whip smart, a great innovator and a terrific operator. Cox told a just fantastic story of a more focused Hasbro that was circling the wagons around three business lines. First, there's the games division, which owns magic cards and Dungeons and Dragons. Very fast growth year, high margins. And there's consumer products. We were talking classic toys like a Nerf Plato, GI Joe, Mr. Potato Head. There's the entertainment division, where they license their intellectual property to create movies and TV shows. Again, great gross margins. But put this very bluntly, Hasbro stock has been a juggernaut because the company just keeps putting up fantastic numbers. Just like every other consumer discretionary play. This thing sold off hard when the president ramped up its tariff plans with the stock tumbling from nearly $70 at its highs in February to just below $50 at its lows in April. Even though Hasbro has some tariff exposure, it sourced about half of its goods from China last year. The big money now comes from games, and most of that's digital. The games business has almost no tariff exposure whatsoever. What really mattered here is that Hasbro has become immensely profitable. When the company reported in April they delivered colossal huge top bottom line beat with more than 70% earnings go up for heaven. So 70% 7 0. Then in late July, the company reported just another blowout set of numbers with huge top and bottom line beats. And this time, management raised their full year forecast. They earned a buck 30 per share when Wall street was only looking for 78 cents. That's amazing. With the latest quarter, Hasbro said it now expects revenue up mid single digits msd, as they say this year after previously guiding for revenues to be up slightly. Nice. Management raised their operating margin outlook by a full percentage point too. So what's behind this gaming, especially the Magic Card franchise. Through the first two quarters of the year, gaming sales were up 28%. And look, this was. It's something that Chris Cox told us was happening right here on Mad Money. He predicted this when he came on the show in March. A perfect cold shot, I would say. And I think this part of Hasbro is still not getting enough credit from Wall Street. As for the other large segment consumer products, that hasn't been doing as well this year, but in large part because. Because of the tariff headwinds. But that's what people still think this company is through the first six months of the year. The toy division was actually slightly unprofitable. But even that was better than fear. On the last conference call, Cox explained the consumer products business was experiencing tariff headwinds, quote, as anticipated, quote, in large part because of shifts in ordering from the company's retail partners. That's what's causing the problem. But he also said that Hasbro expects to, quote, make up much of this delayed ordering, end quote, in the final two quarters of the year. And that Europe, the Middle east and Africa are doing well, as is Asia Pacific. And hey, if the circuit court ruling that we got last week, if it stands, maybe most tariffs go away. Although my guess is that the case goes all the way Supreme Court and the supreme side with the White House, I Know, I think they got five votes, maybe a unreliable six. So long story short, Hasbro is doing well this year because their gaming business is on fire. Driven by the excellent performance from the Magic the the Gathering franchise to Strange name I know. While the toy business isn't doing as poorly as expected. As for the entertainment side of things, that's too small to make much of a difference. Nice and popular. But I want you to have one final thought here. If you look at Hasbro's performance by segment in full year 2024 versus say the first six months of 2025, here's what you'd see. The gaming business has grown rapidly while the toy business has shrank. And you know what? From my perspective, that makes Hasbro a much more attractive investment. Because their games are high margin. And the toys, well what can I say? They're very low margin. And that's a real tough business. My father sold toys for a living for about two years before he, before it went out of business. Toys accounted for 62% of sales last year versus 37% for gaming. But through the first six months of 2025, that's flip. The gaming division accounted for 53% of sales versus about 45% for toys. That's rapidly changing mix is making Hasbro a much better company. Company's overall growth rate is higher with the sales up 7% in the first half versus down 17% last year. And, and again it's much higher margin. Gaming has an operating margin of over 40% compared to negative 3.5% margin for consumer products, which brings the company wide operating margin up to just over 25% through the first half of the year. But of course this is just really being kept down by that, by that terrible toy business. Basically Hasbro's gaming division is simply a much better business. It's, it's growing faster, it's more profitable. So as this becomes more, more of a gaming play and less of a toy play, of course the stock deserves to go higher. I keep thinking what would happen if they got rid of that toy business. Looking out in the future, I'm betting Hasbro can keep winning with a head of Steam for Magic the Gathering powering the entire enterprise's growth. Plus the toy division could easily put up better performance in the second half. And of course while licensing the brands to film and TV hasn't been making them, that much money represents a huge potential long term growth opportunity. It only takes one hit for these guys to make a. Fortunately we did see from Barbie, it didn't reflect all that much of Mattel. Best of all, even after this huge run, Hasbro is really not expensive, selling for roughly 16 times this year's estimates and a little over 15 times next year's numbers. That's strange. Oh, it doesn't hurt that Hasbro sports a 3.5% dividend yield at these levels. If you're worried about already missing the move here, yields as otherwise bottom line, Hasbro stock has soared this year because Wall street still doesn't fully appreciate how much this company's change. We think of it as a toy maker, right? But its main business is now tabletop and digital games, fueled by the strength of Magic the Gathering. This is a much better business than selling toys, and it's one that doesn't have much exposure to the president's tariffs either, assuming the spring court doesn't strike them down. Basically, this is a gaming stock that still trades like a toy maker, which is why I think it's got much more room to run. Geez, I like this story. Net Money's back in the break.

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Coming up, stocks have been riding high and Bitcoin's leading the party. But could the rally be running out of steam? Kramer's charting a course next.

[Fifth Third Bank Representative]

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[Announcer]

A fifth third better ahead of the NFL season kickoff. Jerry Jones live and in person with Michael Ozanian on the Cowboys rising valuation state of the NFL and the upcoming season closing bell overtime for Eastern Thursday and streaming on cnbc.

[Jim Cramer]

Plus have we gotten too complacent? Legitimate question after heinous day where the averages rolled over in part because the federal court just called the president's entire tariff policy into question. That was last week and part because September tends to be a terrible month for stocks. As you will soon see, it's worth wondering if Wall Street's been feeling too bullish. Now, I know this professional cadre of bears who never stop hearing from and also seep into all of journalism. But stocks have been steadily roaring since April and there are a lot of bulls out there. Sometimes when there are too many bulls, you run out of potential buyers. Everyone's in the pool because everyone who is going to be positive is already positive. And that's right Tonight I want to go off the charts with the help of Carly Garner. She's a brilliant technician. She's Senior Commodity Strategist broker to Carly Trading, was the author of the Carly Perspective newsletter. She made a very compelling point over the weekend that I caught I caught sight of us I got to talk about this tonight, noting that anyone who spends much time on social media needs to recognize that there aren't many organic bears in the stock market right now. If anything, she's constantly seeing long and detailed threads insulting the intelligence of anyone who isn't borrowing money to buy stocks, either directly or indirectly. I haven't heard this narrative myself, but there are plenty of greedy investors out there who usually turn into broke traders because they borrowed so much money. Garner notes that this insane insulting tone is aimed at anyone who holds bonds of any duration or category in their portfolio. And look, it's easy to see how we got there. Risk assets have been gigantic winners since late 2022. Anyone who's had exposure to the stock market or crypto since then has practically been printing money. Who the heck wants 4 to 5% from treasuries when you can earn more than 20% from risk assets? One more point. Garner spoken to many people who are using AI to pick stocks and allocate their portfolios. FYI, bad idea. I'm waiting for the revolution, but there are things this technology can't do well. At least not yet. The big chat bots do not exist to make predictions about the future. Unfortunately, some investors don't seem to understand that. Please, I'm begging you, don't take investment advice from AI. These platforms simply scrub the Internet for data and compile it. As Garner Points puts it, I, like many investors, operates with a short term memory bias. It isn't telling us what will happen next, it's simply confirming what already happened. Now you want psychos? Just go to Reddit, which is heavily scraped by all the bots. Now in the trading industry, some kind of AI has been used for two Decades. They call it algorithmic or system trading. And the performance of these computerized systems is just as fallible or even more so than human decision making. Algorithmic trading is about looking for correlations and betting they'll continue. Computers can do that. But I think it's important to recognize that no professionals are using this technology to make longer term investment decisions. Let's get back on topic. Stocks have roared for years now. So you feel like idiot, right? If you're taking a more cautious approach to the market. Stocks keep. Stocks keep running and you're a moron for just sitting in bonds. Bob, you'll feel like here's the thing, we can forget this after a big run. But stocks are inherently risky. They are called risk assets. I know tons of traders who made millions of dollars during the dot com bubble only to give it all back when the bubble burst. I could have been one of those people. My hedge fund went negative on.com right near the peak in March of 2000. And we actually made a killing that year. But of course it helped that I started the street.com watch it open at $62 only to go down to two bucks. A humbling but learning experience. Still, it's very easy to go all in on stocks when the economy's humming and the market's on fire. That's not why you park a big chunk of your retirement savings in the bond market. That's risk free money. You keep it in bonds because at some point the economy will falter and the stock market will roll over. At which point you need a source of financial stability. Why bring this up? All right, let's go to the chart. Why don't you take a look at the monthly chart. The SB500 futures going all the way back to the financial crisis. Garner points out that going into today the S and P futures were bumping against the monthly uptrend resistance. This is the line right here. Now do you know this? Tested that barrier three times before. Three. Three times before, Joe. It's never ended well. This is the fourth time. Maybe it's a charm. I don't know. Sure enough, we're selling off again similar to what happened in 2018. Okay. And also in 2021. Garner notes that the relative strength or RSI index, an important momentum indicator is now forming a double top in overbought territory. In other words, it's saying we've rallied too far too fast. And Garner's view this suggests momentum is waning and a correction is likely, which is very much in keeping what we saw today, 2018, the markets rally stalled, but the S and P didn't actually roll over until two years later in late 2021. The process was significantly faster. Obviously we won't know how this plays out until it happens. But Garner Fuel is feeling wary about the current setup. We've seen this move before, she's saying. And from her perspective, the downside risk far outweighs the upside profit potential. That's why she's recommending taking something off the table. Because in the end, it's not how much you make on the way up that matters, is how much you keep on the way down down. Speaking of risk assets, now let's take a look at the daily chart of bitcoin in red versus the S&P 500 in green. Now this is really cool. Garner is not a cryptocurrency expert, but she can't ignore what she's seeing here. And what she sees is that Bitcoin's been leading the stock market. Bitcoin stopped making new highs in January 21st while the S and P didn't make its last pre correction new high until February 20th, right before it. Okay, certainly Bitcoin stopped making new new lows on March 11. Esme finally made its last lower last low on April 7. Why does this matter? Because Bitcoin just made its last new high less than three weeks ago on August 14th. If it can't recover, that's a bad sign for the stock market. I'm not saying the S and P should follow in the footsteps of bitcoin. That's just what's been happening. And if the pattern continues, today's sell off might only be the first day of a larger beat down. You. No, I'm not thinking that. I am passing on what Carly thinks. Finally, let's not forget about seasonality. This. I agree. Historically speaking, September's real bad month for stocks. Look at how the December E mini S&P 500 futures has been trading at this point in the year. This is the five year average. Okay? Typically December S and P futures peak around August 31st and then start pulling back. And that is not good. And this is this. This is a look, by the way, is this. This is a compilation. January, December, 24. But what matters to me also because I'm more of an opportunist, is look at this. You get here if you can stay, fool. But I don't know if you can stay. I want you to. Here's the bottom line. The charts interpreted by Carly Garner suggest maybe it's time to pull your horns. We've had a huge run here and those don't go on forever, especially when we reach the toughest month of the year. But remember what I said say, which is I need you to stay the course. I've seen too many people get blown out right here and never get back in. I want to go to Tim in New York.

[Caller]

Tim, what's up, Jim? It's Tim from Long Island, N.Y. with more compute driving demand for memory and storage. Is Micron a buy?

[Jim Cramer]

I happen to like Micron, but remember Micron has this DRAM which is a commodity business and they have this high bandwidth business that is really terrific. And I think right now you'd be driven by what drams are doing. So therefore I prefer other stocks we do have. And if you're willing to stay tuned, we do have Broadcom reporting this week. And I like them more than Micron, but I feel off because I like Sanjay Broder so much. But he does have a hostage to some, some of what I regard as commodity businesses. Let's go to Bill in Massachusetts.

[Caller]

Bill, Bill, Jimmy, club member doing incredible.

[Jim Cramer]

Love it.

[Caller]

Thank you, thank you. You guys are incredible. I'm making ton of money. I've been trimming for the last three months. Jim.

[Jim Cramer]

I have to.

[Caller]

It's just, I'm making so much money. It's just incredible.

[Jim Cramer]

I have to tell you, you are a wise man, Bill, because the people who don't do that are the people who do not watch the show or play the market or invest. And that's because they're gonzo. Buy. And you're gonzo in, which I love. How can I help you, Jim?

[Caller]

You know we got into Reddit. Your daughter got us on that. I'm making a bundle. I've taken all my costs out, plus some profit. I really like Reddit. It's shown profit since it was. Since it was an ipo. I really like to get some more. Jim, can you give me an entrance please? Thank you.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay. Steve Huffman is the most self effacing of great CEOs of this generation. I like the stock so much I thought it would come in so I could buy it for the Travel Trust. Thank you for the nice things you said. It hasn't. It's down 5 today, I do believe. I thought I could get it at 180, 170. I was too cherry. Hold on to the stock. It's a winner. Thank you for the kind comments. The charts as interpreted by Carly Garner suggest that maybe the bulls have run the course A little bit too. Let's say they're too high. But don't get complacent. Just stay the course. Is my view much more man money. Including my exclusive with Signet shining brightly after reporting better than expected results. And this is by the way, even with the India tariff that they have, I'm hearing what's driving the strength with Cigna's top brass than Elliott partners taking a bite of PepsiCo seeking some change. So could this be the force that the food and beverage giant needs to get back into growth mode? I'll give you my take. And it's a little more benign than most. And of course, oil calls rapid fire. Tonight's lighting matches. Stay with Kramer. All right, what managed to rally in spite of today's over overall ugly tape. How about Single Jewelers, the parent of Kay Jewelers, Zales and Jared? This morning Singer reported a healthy revenue beat and an enormous earnings beat. Management raising their full year forecast. We like this. Now, you know, I've been keeping track of this one for a long time, often speaking with former CEO Gina Drozos about she stepped out in November. We haven't had a chance really to spend a lot of time with the successor. So this is our chance. Let's take a closer look with JK Semantics. He's the new CEO of Signal. I hope you don't mind how you do. I know that's probably a bit of a misleading thing.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

I'll take it.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay. But Mr. Semantic JK, great that you're here. We have a lot to talk about. I mean with golden all high, all new, I thought I'd be. That would be the discussion. But you have a Taylor Swift impact. That is probably the easiest way for those you out there say I want a Taylor Swift idea. Give it to us.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

You know, we're excited. I mean Taylor and Travis, their moment celebrate love really I think galvanizes that conversation for so many Americans right now. And we're excited to be a part of it because it's right on par with our purpose and you know, ever the merchants, we've got a lot of merchandise that really echoes or embodies the spirit of the ring she's got.

[Jim Cramer]

So let's use this metaphor to go into your different brands because it's really important. Important for people to understand like what's Jared different KSA and I figured that maybe you can show us exactly whether let's say I want a really expensive ring to impress my fiance.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

Well, so great question. And I would take you right to Jared, which Really is our brand that. That embodies inspired luxury. The great thing about Jared is not only do you have finished merchandise, which also got Craftsman on site. Site. So the ability to do custom real time is something that separates us as a large brand. And there's no better example of it than this ring right here. That is a ring that we've turned around custom in six days. It is a replica. Replica or inspired by, if you will, of Taylor's ring. Now that's also $100,000 price point item with natural Travis.

[Jim Cramer]

Who can afford that?

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

Well, I, I can promise her price points a little higher than that.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, well, I can promise you I might drift into the eighth round now. Now. But there's also. It's themed all here, right? More than just that. Yeah.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

I think, you know, obviously this is a bridal story which is going to really resonate more to, to Jared and to K. As our milestone gifting, Zales positioned a little bit more for self purchase and fashion. So we're moving more of that brand into a, a space that's targeted on her shopping for herself. There's still a bridal component to it, but going to be a little bit lower price point, a little bit more fashion inspired.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay. So we do need to point out the difference between milestone wedding and holiday season. But this makes it so that anyone who just thinks, wait a second, it's just a holiday gift or Valentine's Day actually right around the corner. This is, this is every week somebody.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

Absolutely. I think, I think with the, with a brand like Ken K, you're really talking about a brand that reaches the broadest cross section of America, the largest jeweler in America. And we're there for every gift giving occasion. So certainly engagement is a big part of that. But gifts for him, gifts for her, gifts for the holiday, any of those significant milestone moments, that's, that's really the bread and butter of a brand like.

[Jim Cramer]

K. Okay, so Laboratory, your predecessor came on. We were worried about Laboratory it because whether they held value or not. And we're worried about gold in the impact of how it's too expensive and what those mean for the consumer and therefore for your stores.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

Well, let's talk about diamonds first. And I say diamonds because we do make the distinction between a natural diamond and a lab grown diamond. But we talk about them as a category because there is a market and a demand for both. And we see that when you, when you get above $5,000 price point, that's a more natural leaning customer. That's somebody that's thinking about holding value as an asset. When you get particularly in engagement rings below $2,000, that's about maximum emotional value. And that's where Lab really has played. Okay, maybe even more importantly for the future of lab. Lab grown diamonds are a category extender for fashion, which is critical to our growth strategy. It really does make diamond fashion jewelry more affordable in a broader cross section of jewelry and really makes it accessible for people every day.

[Jim Cramer]

Now gold has gotten so expensive, but I'm not sure how that cuts. I mean anyone who bought a ring in the last 10 years must be feeling that they made a great investment.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

You know, I think, I think gold, I mean, you know, who'd have thought that we'd be at these levels, right? But that nice thing about gold is customers know the value, there's a definable market and they're willing to make that investment. That's probably the most permeable category as it relates to transferring price because people can anchor against it. I think we do feel it a little on the low end in a business like banter where you've got more hundred dollar and below price points. So that's a little more disposable income exposed. But in the fine jewelry business, which is really the bulk of bar volume, we find that, that it tends to find its level and consumers are willing to pay for it.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay. Now physical stores. I love the comeback. We've got some terrific same store online. You need a little work.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

Well, you know our online business is, is strong when you look at those core brands. So K Zales Jared. We continue to drive growth and we feel good about the progress there. Our pure play digital brands, a little bit of a mixed product back. Blue Nile. Blue Nile. We're seeing healthy progress, seeing growth within the business and really do feel that we're on the right track. We've got some work to do with James Allen. Admittedly, I think we've gotten a little bit out of sorts around customer strategy and we've taken some time to reset both the pricing and promo as well as our assortment architecture so that we're positioned well for the back half of the year.

[Jim Cramer]

Your Blue now brick and mortar at short Hills malls. Gorgeous.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

It is, it's beautiful. I really wanted, you know, Blue now really is a nice experience in a number of locations. That, that's, that's a great example.

[Jim Cramer]

In the meantime, you're continuing the tradition. Something I like, which is this buyback. 59 million shares in 2017. You're down about 44 people who feel that they what is the benefit of being a shareholder of Signet? You make it worthwhile?

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

Well, you, you know, we're focused on what we can do to drive shareholder value. And given the discount that we've seen in that stock price, I think it's, it's a great way to return capital shareholders. We're trying to balance that against our long term growth strategy. And we really do feel like in the long run investing and driving comp sales growth as you saw in this quarter that you know, slightest movement up in comp sales growth and we get good leverage on sga. We're able to pull that through to operating margin.

[Jim Cramer]

Sure.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

Do you know balance is important.

[Jim Cramer]

It's the same. I mean you put it on a tough day. I think the stock could have really been up 20 points. That's how meaningful this quarter was. So congratulations.

[J.K. Semansky, CEO of Signet]

Thank you. I appreciate it.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, that's J.K. semancy. He's the CEO of Signatures SIG. And by the way, it's good to see you. No, it doesn't work like that. That money's back into the brick.

[Announcer]

Coming up, Kramer takes your calls. And the sky's the limit. It's a fast fire lightning round.

[Jim Cramer]

Next it is time to. And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? Ski that time light real quick everybody. We're start with Ally in New York. Ally.

[Caller]

Booyah Joe.

[Jim Cramer]

Booyah.

[Caller]

Booyah. I own App Loving. I'm up and I'm wondering if I can buy more here if I should hold.

[Jim Cramer]

No, I don't want you to buy more. As a matter of fact it's up 50%. Let's take a little off the table just to be prudent. It's a monster stock and it's very well run. But a little off the table would certainly make me feel better. How about Gary in Alabama? Gary.

[Caller]

Hey Jim.

[Jim Cramer]

I understand regional banks are doing well these days.

[Caller]

What do you think about Ameris Bank Corporation?

[Jim Cramer]

Very good. Regional. I think you're absolutely right. You read the market very well and I'm not going to recommend anything other than owning bank stocks. Let's go to Jesse in Rhode Island. Jesse? Hello Jim, can you hear me? Brother, you sound fantastic. Jesse, how about me?

[Caller]

Boo yah man.

[Jim Cramer]

First time caller. I'm a young engineering student and investor at wpi. My inquiry is a clinical stage biotech company. Stock analysts report as a moderate buy having outperformed the s P by 60%. Jim, what is your humble opinion on FDMP4D molecular therapeutics? Okay, here's the way we're going to approach this, this is a pure spot back, okay? I mean total spec $300 million company up 10%. I say you own it, but count it as part of your speculative, part of your portfolio and no more than that. Let's go to Jeremy in Florida. Jeremy, I like your ass. You obviously had a great weekend. What's going on? Yes, sir. Long time listener, first time caller. I've been listening in since the Kudlow and Kramer days. That's how long it's. Oh, come on, man. That is ridiculous. No one's over 105 who watches this show. So first off, thanks for the great advice. I'm a teacher and I pass it along to my 8th grade students and you make me look like a genius. Thank you. Well, you're. I thank you for teaching. Okay. Thank you for teaching. We don't have enough great teachers. How can I help? I appreciate it. My interest tonight is sitm side time. Is it buy, sell or hold? What's. You know, this is just a very good company and it's going to have a big earnings. It's going to have a big earnings turn. I. It's just now, is it cats and dogs. It's all the stuff that goes into just the regular mobile phones which I think are making a comeback. Okay, I know I'm alone on that, but maybe I should say you're with me. Let's go to Peter. New York Peter.

[Caller]

What's up slim Jim? Big booyah to you.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you for that. Thank you for this. From this 31 way sky, I'm calling about the darlings of Arlington. The biggest, baddest home builders in the US of A. Give me your thoughts on Dr. Horton. I like Dr. Horton. I see you're Dr. Horton. And I raise you with toll brothers. Let's go to Doug in Louisiana. Doug, hey.

[Caller]

Hey, Jim. First time caller. Enjoy your show. Number one.

[Jim Cramer]

God. Fantastic, Fantastic. Be on the show.

[Caller]

Looking for a stock that might be immune to tariffs.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay.

[Caller]

And is generating consistent income. Saw a company that advertises has been in business for a long time and I wanted to get your thoughts on Lamar.

[Jim Cramer]

Typically I would not recommend an advertising stock. This does have a 5% yield. They're very clever guys. And it's not a high multiple stock stock. It's not my favorite. I think appetizer is not a good business. But that is the best of the lot. So there you go. And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the lightning round.

[Announcer]

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

[Jim Cramer]

Unless your head is stuck in a bag of Frito Laid potato chips. You now know that Elliott Mashman, one of the smartest, toughest activist firms on earth, has taken a major stake in PepsiCo and one change. What's the change? Actually, that's not how it works with Elliott, at least initially, because there's a ton of bluster reportage about what happens when this uber smart hedge fund takes a stake. But I can tell you that most of the time it's misplaced. If you study Elliot as I have, you recognize that these guys aren't gunslingers and they aren't pirates. They are thoughtful, intelligent people who do a tremendous amount of work work. And they want the stock they invest in to go higher, something that the company CEO should want to. When CEOs discovered that smart actors, and not all activists are smart, have taken a stake and one change. I tell them to welcome thoughtful actors, sit down with them, work with them, even consider it like hiring a great management consultant for free. See, Elliot in particular always does an immense amount of work. They have ideas you may be missing. You do need thick skin because remonstration can be very tough. But these guys aren't on a mission to throw out executives who are willing to listen and learn. However, if they don't listen, if they're in transition, then it becomes a very different story. Why? Well, because unlike say Kraft Heinz, which is demerging today and is watching stock go down because the brands are unleashing the total overhauls, PepsiCo has tremendous brands that could be worth a lot more than the company stock is selling for comparisons, my mother always told me, are odious. But PepsiCo had always sported a premium price during these multiple and cut to Coca Cola in part because Frito Lay is a remarkable food brand and PepsiCo is a great growth beverage company. But that's no longer the case and that's a real negative turnaround. PepsiCo has assets all over the place and turning company. It's like an array of cats and dogs that cannot stand. The truth is they've made acquisitions that made sense. But then lie foul. Think SodaStream or there are perfectly good companies like Rockstar that are virtually being given away to Celsius. A beverage company that reminds me of Gatorade when it had monster growth for PepsiCo back in the day. I know that CEO Ramon Laguarda has been dealt a difficult hand. See, if you had to invent a food that could be stifled by GOP Dash one weight loss revolution, it would be Frito, like the old ad from the 60s was I bet you can't eat just one, but that's almost precisely what GOP is allowing you to do. You can eat three or four maybe and be very full as they start, still taste great, but you just can't eat a lot of they're trying to solve this by selling smaller bags, albeit at high prices. That's not going to work. Frankly, I'm not sure what I would do. I don't really have a solution for GOP back. One problem. I don't have a solution for this whole generation Z that seems to view their potty bodies as temples. Can't bring down the temples. Maybe the solution for PepsiCo is Ciete and Poppy, two excellent recent acquisitions. But you can't be all things to all people and you can't support all their brands that you Quaker Oats, you're supporting. You're supporting all sorts of different drinks and different foods all over the place. There has to be a core to the business, and I don't feel there's a core there anymore. Otherwise we'd still unpack for the Chapel Trust like we used to. I don't know what will happen here, but I would say the stock isn't up enough after today, given the agitation I expect from the smartest activists in the business. I would say though, that if I were running the company, I definitely want to brainstorm with Elliott. PepsiCo can and again will be if they listen, the premium food and beverage company, but not if it keeps being run the way it's managed now. Like I said, as always, market summary pumps are fine. Just for you. Mad Money, I'm Jim Cramer. I'll see you tomorrow.

[Disclaimer Narrator]

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer Will the job.

[Announcer]

Market bounce back from the recent weakness? Will the White House challenge the accuracy of the data, numbers and analysis of the critical August jobs report Squawk Box Friday 8:30am Eastern streaming on CNBC.