Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 9/25/25 — Detailed Summary

Date: September 25, 2025
Host: Jim Cramer (CNBC)
Episode Theme: Navigating Two Diverging Economies and the Market's Path Forward

Overview

Jim Cramer takes a deep dive into the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting the divergence between the booming artificial intelligence (AI)-driven tech sector and the struggling consumer sector. He explores how these divergent paths affect markets, delves into recent sector earnings (autos, housing, retail), assesses the market's technical health, and takes listener questions including buy/sell/hold opinions. Notably, Cramer interviews the CEO of Aquestive Therapeutics about their innovative allergy treatment. He closes the episode with key lessons on speculation versus investment, reinforcing the importance of careful stock picking amid market froth.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. The Tale of Two Economies

(01:39 – 09:55)

• AI/Tech Economy vs. Consumer Economy:

  • Jim describes a split economy: tremendous growth in the AI sector, contrasted with ongoing weakness in the consumer-facing sector.

    “We have two economies. There’s the tremendous economy with amazing growth, one that’s connected to artificial intelligence. And then there’s the anemic economy connected to the consumer, which seems to deteriorate by the day.” — Cramer [01:44]

• Big Tech’s Financial Power:

  • Apples’s immense commitment—over $600B investments in the U.S.—and its rumored interest in supporting Intel:

    “Apple could build the foundries that Intel wanted to put up, hoping customers would follow...this would just be an asterisk when it comes to Apple’s balance sheet.” — Cramer [03:23]

• CoreWeave & OpenAI:

  • Reports a $6.5B deal bringing CoreWeave’s contract value with OpenAI to $22.4B—“there’s just that much related activity.”

• Physical Impact of Tech Expansion:

  • Meta building a $10B Louisiana data center leads to concerns about power strain for regular consumers:

    “We’re hearing rumblings just today about whether the regular consumers of power could be hurt by this deal...fights between consumers and tech for a long time.” — [05:52]

2. The Weakness in the Real Economy

(06:40 – 09:55)

• CarMax Results:

  • "Awful" numbers: 20% stock drop, lower profit per car, weak sales, and rising loan losses.
  • Need for Fed rate cuts to revive business:

    “CarMax is a very good operator...but unless rates come down substantially, I think things will only get worse for this company.” — [07:10]

• KB Home and Housing:

  • Even solid builders are “choosing to build fewer homes” due to high-interest rates.
  • Mortgages tied to long rates; only substantial Fed cuts will help.

• Starbucks Layoffs:

  • Shrinking North American store count and billion-dollar restructuring.
  • Cramer bullish on CEO's turnaround plan:

    “The real economy. It stinks. I mean very bullish though... It’s going to send the earnings up, not down.” — [08:59]

3. Market Leadership & What’s Moving the S&P 500

(08:59 – 09:55)

• Tech’s Dominance:

  • Since late 2022, AI-related stocks account for 75% of S&P returns, 80% of earnings growth, 90% of capex.
  • “Apple alone is committed to an investment program that’s actually larger than the entire commitment by the US Government to building the interstate highway system.” — [09:42]

• On Rate Cuts:

  • Despite strong headline GDP (3.8% Q2), underlying consumer weakness means rate cuts are still crucial for broad economic health.

4. Lighting Round: Listener Questions (Selected Highlights)

(09:55 – 10:51, 29:27 – 42:50)

• Marvell Technology (MRVL) [10:11]:
  “Absolutely right...big buyback and insider buying...company has felt very maligned. Matt Murphy’s done a fantastic job...you got a winner.” — Cramer

• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) [10:51]: “Very, very good company...but it is a real winner. It’s just got a very high price-to-earnings multiple...wait for it to cool off.”

• Coca-Cola (KO) [30:47]: “I think it’s a terrific stock...one of the few consumer packaged goods companies that really has a lot of momentum. Great level to buy.”

• Dutch Bros (BROS) [39:34]:
  “Stock has come down...I’d say buy some here and then buy some in the 40s...don’t expect to get back to the 30s. That’d be too cheap.”

• American Bitcoin (ABTC) [41:00]: “Total spec...doesn’t have any earnings. If you want one spec in your portfolio, that’s fine, but you could lose everything.”

• Republic Services (RSG) [42:08]: “Strong cash flow and dividend growth...but they just do nothing but go down. I need to see a bounce.”

5. The Homebuilders: Rate Cuts & Realities

(13:37 – 20:17)

• Lennar & KB Home Earnings:

  • Lennar: Disappointing margins, weak sales despite more units delivered.
  • KB Home: Beat expectations, but still cut full-year forecast. “Buyers in a wait and see mode” [18:38].
  • Both NEED lower mortgage rates for meaningful sales growth.

  “Based on commentary from Lennar and KB Home, the bulls clearly got ahead of themselves here because so far we haven’t seen any meaningful increase in sales volume driven by lower mortgage rates.” — Cramer [19:08]

• Cramer’s Bottom Line:
  "Wait and see" on homebuilders due to risk of repeating last fall’s scenario—a Fed rate cut that didn’t bring mortgage rates down.

6. Technical Market Analysis with Jessica Inskip

(21:40 – 29:27)

• Not a Bubble—Yet:

  • Inskip (Fidelity, Stockbrokers.com, Market Maker podcast) argues present market not like 2000.

    “This moment is not the year 2000. This market is not toppy. If anything, she thinks this market’s got legs.” — [21:48]

  • Tech weight in S&P is high but rose much quicker in the 90s/Bubble era.

  • S&P sector multiples are high but justified by sector mix and earnings.

  • Technicals: S&P above key support levels, RSI not overbought, equal-weight S&P breaking out—market breadth improving.

  • Watch for the dollar: Weakness helps tech; if it reverses, it could pressure the current rally.

  “The charts interpreted by Jessica Inskip suggest that this market is actually in much better shape than many people you hear come on TV and say that the end of the world, it’s 2000.” — Cramer [29:09]

7. Interview: Aquestive Therapeutics CEO Dan Barber

(32:28 – 38:47)

• About Aquestive Therapeutics:

  • Two decades old, six FDA approvals, but always a small company until now.

• Anafilm—Gamechanger in Allergy/Anaphylaxis Treatment:

  • Oral thin-film epinephrine for anaphylaxis (allergic reactions): dissolves under the tongue.
  • Portability addresses main reason people don’t carry EpiPens.

  “The majority of people don’t have their rescue product with them, and the majority of times that an event happens, there’s not a rescue product available.” — Dan Barber [35:10]

• Market:

  • $1B potential, current scripts (5M/year) vs ~30M people who could use it.
  • Company aims for market expansion as ease-of-use removes resistance.

• Pipeline:

  • Alopecia areata product next, using same Adrenaverse technology for controlled release.

  “[Anafilm is] the first and only oral rescue medication for the treatment of anaphylaxis...dissolves in a couple of seconds and starts working right away.” — Dan Barber [33:28]

8. Speculative Stocks: The Sell-off and Lessons in Speculation

(43:07 – 47:17)

• Market Shakeout:

  • Recent sharp selloff in speculative/“frothy” names—crypto, nuclear, quantum, healthcare specs.
  • “Bloodletting may not be over.”
  • Insiders finally selling some of the biggest bubble names a warning sign.

• Quality Still Outperforms:

  • Cramer encouraged to see shakeout—brings market back to reality.

• How to Speculate Wisely:

  • Limit to one speculative stock per five-stock portfolio.
  • Must have a strong balance sheet, a genuine edge, and conviction in your research.
  • If you have gains from speculation, take something “off the table.”

  “Speculation only works if you can work toward taking out your cost basis. When you do, you can let the rest run. But if you never take anything off the table, you’ll never have any real gains. And speculative gains can always turn into real losses.” — Cramer [46:20]

Notable Quotes

• On Economic Divergence:
  “There’s the tremendous economy with amazing growth, one that’s connected to artificial intelligence. And then there’s the anemic economy connected to the consumer, which seems to deteriorate by the day.” — Cramer [01:44]

• On Consumer Weakness:
  “Autos, housing, retail, these are the foundation of our economy...the real economy. It stinks.” — Cramer [08:59]

• On Homebuilding:
  “Lennar and KB Home need lower mortgage rates in order to win and both companies sound optimistic about the prospect of those rates coming down. But man, ever since the Fed cut short rates last week, long rates have been on the rise again. That’s why I think it’s better to take a wait and see approach.” — Cramer [19:29]

• On Market Technicals:
  “This market is not toppy...she thinks this market’s got legs.” — Cramer, paraphrasing Jessica Inskip [21:48]

• On Speculation:
  “You can’t just buy anything...Speculation only works if you can work toward taking out your cost basis.” — Cramer [46:20]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:39 – Opening Market Commentary: “The Two Economies”
• 05:52 – Data Center Energy Demands vs. Consumers
• 06:40 – CarMax Weakness, Housing Challenges, Starbucks Cuts
• 09:55 – Lightning Round (Marvell, Sterling Infrastructure, etc.)
• 13:37 – Homebuilder Earnings Breakdown (Lennar, KB Home)
• 21:40 – Chart Analysis with Jessica Inskip (“It’s Not 2000”)
• 29:27 – Lightning Round (Coca-Cola, Dutch Bros, ABTC, Recursion, RSG)
• 32:28 – Aquestive Therapeutics CEO Interview
• 43:07 – The Speculative Sell-off: Lessons & Reflections

Memorable Moments

• Jim’s Personal Allergy Story:
  “I have anaphylactic shock...I was carrying one...I said, to hell with it...But I’ll tell you something, I’m scared to death...” [34:31]

• Lighthearted Listener Banter:
  “Vero Beach. Oh, my God. The ESPYs live there. I’d say hi to them.” — Cramer [29:31]

• On Speculation Limits:
  “As I say in how to make money any market, you’re entitled to one spec. That’s it. But that could lose everything. Just as long as you know that that’s fine.” — Cramer [41:05]

Episode Takeaways

• Tech and AI are powering stock market gains, but most Americans are not benefiting: “Wall Street’s averages mask profound consumer weakness.”
• Lower interest rates are still necessary to revive core parts of the economy (autos, housing, retail), despite strong GDP driven by tech.
• Be cautious when chasing homebuilder stocks; unless rates drop meaningfully, sales growth will be elusive.
• The market, while tech-heavy, is not exhibiting late-90s mania—fundamentals and breadth support current valuations, per technical analysis.
• Speculative fever broke (for now); investors should stick to quality and tread carefully with risky trades—keep speculation to 20% or less of their portfolio.

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