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Jim Cramer (1:03)
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Jim Cramer (1:55)
Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cramerica. I'll be my friends. I'm just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just to entertain, but to teach you. So call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me at Jim Cramer. You can always find something wrong if you really want to. It's so easy that you can gin up mistakes on a daily basis. Funny thing though. What went wrong goes right. Nobody acknowledged it. The hurdle was overcome. That's the worst, worst case. Never happened, never acknowledged. And that's how you can end up with days like today where The Dow gained 114 points, S&P advanced.21%, Nasdaq jumped.4 or 5%. Despite an overwhelming chatter of negativity at the opening from both analysts and the media front and center. Let's talk about the bond market for a moment. I always like to remind you that bonds are more important than stocks. Their determinants are much bigger than but they're much bigger than stocks. They're Supposed to tell you what happens next. But lately bonds have been consistently they haven't helped you at all to make money in stocks. Instead they keep encouraging you to trade the wrong way. We see. We came in every, every day, every day and saw that the 10 year treasury yield kept climbing ever higher. Each tick drove stocks lower. We seemed doomed. Yet in the last few days yields have plummeted and today we hit a level that we haven't seen since April 7th when we thought we were going into a tariff induced recession after Liberation Day. That's right. The Yield on the 10 year is back to where it was when we thought we were facing Armageddon. This time it's thanks to a weaker set of employment numbers. Much less dangerous and certainly reversible. Something that was horrible morphed into something fabulous but it wasn't even noticed. And the people who were saying, well, they're gone now. I've had the tape rewound for things that I've said wrong and I own them. I try to get more right than wrong, okay? However, I expect to be called out when I make a mistake. No one called out the boys who cried wolves about the bonds though. Yet I'm sure many of you sold things because you heard that interest rates were rising, unheard of levels. Hey, by the way, it didn't matter that we actually had heard of them. It's just that they were heard 30 years ago. Now I traded through that period so I know that 10 year ago into 5% wasn't the end of the world. In fact, it was actually a halcyon time to make money. For weeks we were told that rates were skyrocketing and honestly, some of the media reported that way in order, I think. I'm not kidding to scare you. Evidence. Well, let me give an analogy, a little personal history. Way back in the day, I covered homicide when I lived in my car in Los Angeles. Sometimes I cover, unfortunately a string of homicides, all separate. My editor said, hey, how do you know they aren't all being done by one killer? I told them what the police told me. Different mo, different, Everything different. My editor said why should we believe the police? Next thing you know I was writing about a serial killer because you know why serial killers sell newspapers. I hated myself and I really hated my editor. But the paper was doing badly. So the truth was sacrifice. I don't forget things like that. That's why I don't do it. Back to bonds. There were plenty of people on air and in print that wanted to tell a scary Story I know seems ludicrous, but believe me, everyone wants to write an interesting story. And scary is interesting. Things are asymmetrical. Those who talked and wrote and screamed about skyrocketing interest rates had no price to pay. It wasn't as egregious as making up a serial killer, but it did hurt a lot of pocketbook and wallets. Maybe yours. I never heard a soul say it was time to buy bonds. All right, not just bonds. Let's go to the Mag 7. Go back to the spring and recall where Alphabet was trading. Can't recall. I can tell you it was at 140 and change. What were we hearing? That it was monopolist? That it will be punished by the judiciary? That it was. That the breakup will make no more money. No sum of the parts, just a breakup that was punitive. So the stock had to be sold. Just an expensive stock that was going, about to be hobbled by the government. Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell. The house of pain. In retrospect, Alphabet still isn't even up here. $234. I know it's almost inconceivable that the judge who ruled that outfit was a bad actor monopolist, then turned around, said the events had overrun the status, so it was no longer a bad actor monopolist. But here we are a few weeks later and always seem to be taking for granted the stocks in the 200s. We don't say, wow, that's scary. That move occurred without a moment of remorse from those who said it couldn't happen, or the stock was dangerous in the 1 40s, 150s, 1 60s, 1 70s. Now, I made a negative call for output for the CNBC investing club, but at least I publicly beat myself up for getting it wrong. So what? Periodically, you know what? You have to hate yourself. That makes you better, makes more honest. Now we got another one, Amazon. A few weeks ago, this stock was plummeting. Why? Because we heard that Amazon Web Services was falling behind Microsoft's Azure. Something that actually we picked up loud and clear on this show from Snowflake's explosive conference call. It didn't help when a Morgan Stanley analyst asked Amazon CEO Andy Jassy if he was worried about falling behind. And. And he didn't say, quote, we are spending and getting a great return on our spending, whether it's on our trading chips or in video chips. He didn't say that the street was quick to hammer the stock because he didn't say that. Here we are, a couple of Weeks later and Amazon stocks at 235 and change is knocking on the door of 242. Its all time high. What changed? Nothing. Nothing at all. The market simply moved on from the bear narrative because there's so much good that's happening at Amazon. So much good. Who knows how much more revenue Amazon can bring in From prime starting October 1st now that you can share your. You can't share your password with relatives. Did you know? I think it could be like Netflix. We had this huge surge of subscribers belong Amazon. What really was wrong with Amazon? Again, I can't remember. Or how about this one? Back in August we heard that Apple had run out of growth and had nothing in the hopper. That was like a continuous loop of negativity every time you raise your head. If you were an Apple shareholder, a sharpshooter who wanted to sell a lot of paper shots down, here we are more than 30 points later and we know that Apple can receive a check from Alphabet to preload Google into their 2 billion devices. Something everyone thought would be scrapped by the judge who found out Alphabet a monopolist. That's more than $20 billion. What profit margin that is? Nope, in the craziest of torture circular thinking the judge ruled that out, but would have even would have enough money to be even more of monopolist if it didn't pay Apple. God, what a terrible reasoning that is. Those noisy souls who believed in trading Apple, not own it. They were never skewed though. Skewered, they sold a lot of papers. Hopefully they didn't catch the 30 points the believers captured. Which brings me of course to Nvidia. Here's a stock that's going straight down for four straight weeks despite a very good quarter. In the middle of that skid today Citi lowered its price target from 210 to 200. Broke ranks, but much less bullish than everybody else. It got picked up. This down, this price target cut got picked up by everyone. All I heard about today was that Broadcom is now a factor taking share from video, maybe big share. Apparently it is a horse race. Okay, let me tell you something. Broadcom is the biggest position for my channel trust. Oh, we love it for the club. It's a fantastic story of private label chips. However, I got real bad news for those who are trading not owning a video. The price performance of video is so much better than any other company including the one is our larger position that we say we don't care. I got another idea. Why not own both? Today was the city analyst day to shine. Oh, yeah. After four weeks down for Nvidia, he really nailed it. Did I mention that he lowered his price target and then the stock actually finished up on the day? But he did break ranks the bottom line. I bet we'll look back on that city price target cut and realize it was a mistake just like the others. But boy, oh, boy, again, like the others. Did it ever sell a lot of papers? Steve in Florida. Steve.