Making Sense with Sam Harris: Episode #384 — Stress Testing Our Democracy

Release Date: September 23, 2024

In episode #384 of Making Sense with Sam Harris, host Sam Harris engages in a profound discussion with Barton Gelman, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and Senior Advisor at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law. The conversation delves into the fragilities of American democracy, exploring the potential threats posed by authoritarianism and strategies to safeguard electoral integrity.

1. Barton Gelman’s Transition to Action

[00:06] Sam Harris:
"Today I'm speaking with Barton Gelman... we talk mostly about election integrity and the safeguarding of American democracy."

Barton Gelman, formerly a staff writer at The Atlantic and The Washington Post, transitioned from journalism to active advocacy at the Brennan Center for Justice. Frustrated by merely highlighting existential threats to democracy, Gelman sought to implement solutions, spearheading initiatives like the Democracy Futures Project.

2. Democracy Futures Project: Simulating Authoritarian Challenges

[03:03] Barton Gelman:
"My first big project... was to run something we called the Democracy Futures Project, which was a series of five tabletop exercises... to test how we would respond to an authoritarian president."

The Democracy Futures Project involved extensive war games with approximately 175 former officials and leaders across various sectors. These simulations aimed to anticipate and strategize responses to potential authoritarian maneuvers by a president drawing inspiration from Donald Trump’s agenda.

3. Structuring the War Games

[05:32] Sam Harris:
"Is it just an exercise in extemporaneous gameplay and fiction making, or are there parameters in advance?"

[06:35] Barton Gelman:
"We called them everything Everywhere, all at once games... modeling the president on Trump's declared agenda."

The war games were meticulously structured, with scenarios reflecting Trump-like strategies. These included overwhelming policy actions and maneuvers that could destabilize democratic institutions, such as:

• Using federal law enforcement to target political enemies.
• Challenging large corporations like Amazon to exert control over media outlets.
• Deploying the IRS to intimidate nonprofits advocating opposing views.

4. Authoritarian Tactics Explored

[07:46] Barton Gelman:
"Use arms of the federal government to go after your enemies... sending the IRS to challenge the tax exemptions of nonprofits."

Other significant tactics simulated included:

• Deploying federal troops to quell protests and dissent.
• Mass expulsion of migrants using federal law enforcement to enforce harsh immigration policies.

These strategies were scrutinized to understand their feasibility and the challenges in countering them within the existing legal framework.

5. Challenges in Countering Autocratic Moves

[19:19] Sam Harris:
"Is there a way to solve this problem?... remove this as this perennial object of partisan gamesmanship."

[19:42] Barton Gelman:
"The unhappy conclusion was that the blue team seldom found a way to stop the autocrat in his tracks."

The simulations revealed a disheartening reality: pro-democracy forces struggled to effectively contain authoritarian overreach. While delaying or mitigating damage was possible, outright prevention of power abuse was rare. Key takeaways included:

• Governors and State Officials’ Role:
  [08:20] Barton Gelman:
  "Governors don't actually know where their power ends and the President's power begins."
  Emphasizing the need for state leaders to understand and assert their legal boundaries to provide checks against federal overreach.

• Legal Preparedness:
  [21:50] Sam Harris:
  "There's an army of democratic and never Trump lawyers... equally worried about this."
  Highlighting the critical role of legal experts in defending electoral integrity and resisting unconstitutional actions.

6. Voter ID Laws and Election Integrity

[25:21] Barton Gelman:
"When people talk about the need to protect election integrity... they are trying to prevent people from voting who are not on their side."

Gelman critiques the push for stringent Voter ID laws, asserting that such measures are often a guise to suppress votes from demographics that typically oppose Republican agendas. Key points include:

• Nonexistent Voter Fraud:
  [27:02] Sam Harris:
  "Non citizens are not voting... it's just patently ridiculous."
  Reinforcing the lack of evidence supporting claims of widespread voter fraud.

• Disenfranchisement Through ID Requirements:
  [28:20] Barton Gelman:
  "Proponents... can't name millions... creating a new one of disenfranchisement."
  Discussing how ID laws disproportionately affect poor and minority voters, undermining democratic participation.

7. November Election Scenarios and Implications

[36:13] Sam Harris:
"What are you expecting in November?... what's happening now in Trumpistan."

Gelman anticipates a closely contested November election, where:

• Close Margins:
  [37:06] Barton Gelman:
  "The tipping point state is going to be Pennsylvania or Wisconsin... very close to the margin of error."
  Suggesting that narrow victories could exacerbate disputes over legitimacy.

• Potential for Dispute Regardless of Outcome:
  [39:26] Barton Gelman:
  "There will be some Democrats... who challenge the outcome if Harris loses."
  Indicating that skepticism and conspiracy theories may undermine trust in electoral results from both sides.

• Landslide Victories as a Stabilizing Factor:
  [37:06] Barton Gelman:
  "There's something about the Election Administrator's Prayer: let there be a landslide."
  Emphasizing that clear, decisive outcomes reduce the likelihood of prolonged disputes and unrest.

8. Conclusion: Strengthening Democratic Resilience

The dialogue underscores the imperative to bolster democratic institutions and legal frameworks to withstand potential authoritarian threats. Key recommendations include:

• Legal Clarifications:
  Ensuring state officials are well-versed in the limits of federal authority and equipped to challenge overreaches.

• Electoral Reforms:
  Advocating for transparent and fair voting processes to enhance public trust and participation.

• Civic Engagement:
  Fostering a robust democratic culture where citizens are motivated to vote and uphold democratic principles.

Barton Gelman and Sam Harris collectively highlight the precarious state of American democracy, urging proactive measures to safeguard its integrity against both overt and subtle authoritarian challenges.

For those interested in exploring these critical issues further, subscribing to the Making Sense Podcast provides access to in-depth discussions and expert insights into the evolving landscape of society, politics, and morality.