Making Sense with Sam Harris

Episode #393 — Is History Repeating Itself?
Release Date: November 26, 2024
Guest: Simon Sebag Montefiore, Historian and Author

Introduction & Guest Background

Sam Harris opens the episode by briefly mentioning the subscription model of the podcast before welcoming his guest, Simon Sebag Montefiore. Simon expresses his enthusiasm for finally meeting Sam remotely and discusses his extensive work on Russian history and the Middle East, specifically highlighting his books "Stalin, the Court of the Red Tsar" and "Jerusalem, the Biography."

Notable Quote:

"I've been on a WhatsApp thread together for quite some time. It's great to finally meet you, however remotely you have written these just marvelous magisterial histories."
— Simon Sebag Montefiore [00:52]

Historical Turbulence & Modern Parallels

The conversation delves into the current global instability, drawing parallels between historical events and today's geopolitical climate. Simon reflects on his experiences witnessing the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early '90s, emphasizing how firsthand observation of an empire's collapse serves as invaluable training for a historian.

Notable Quote:

"One hopes one is not living in a period of history like some of the periods you've written about. But increasingly our present starts to begin to feel like we've entered the stream of history."
— Simon Sebag Montefiore [03:29]

Sam and Simon discuss the rapid pace of modern events, referencing Lenin's observation: "nothing happens for years and then years happen in weeks or days." The dialogue underscores the unpredictability of historical events and the challenges historians face in predicting future outcomes.

The Decline of Liberal Democracies

Simon provides an analysis of the current crisis within liberal democracies, attributing their potential downfall not to military or economic failures but to "psychological defeats" — a loss of societal cohesion and shared values. He references Ibn Khaldun's concept of Asabiyyah (social solidarity) as essential for the longevity of great kingdoms.

Notable Quote:

"Great kingdoms don't fall because of military defeat or economic defeats. They fall because of psychological defeats."
— Simon Sebag Montefiore [10:26]

He further explores the successes of liberal democracies post-World War II, highlighting how American power and the establishment of liberal norms influenced global governance. However, Simon points out that these democracies are now grappling with internal crises that threaten their stability and influence.

Jerusalem: A Nexus of Historical and Religious Significance

A substantial portion of the discussion focuses on Jerusalem, exploring its historical and contemporary significance. Simon elaborates on the Temple Mount's evolution, built by Herod the Great and later becoming a focal point for religious reverence across Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. The conversation highlights the city's potential to either be a beacon of interfaith harmony or a spark for global catastrophe due to its profound religious importance.

Notable Quote:

"Anything that goes wrong there could ignite a catastrophe, a holocaust and a World War 3. That would involve everybody, because everybody is involved in the future of that place."
— Simon Sebag Montefiore [16:10]

Historical Evolution of Religious Conflicts

Simon provides a comprehensive overview of the Judeans' history, the rise of Christianity, and the emergence of Islam. He traces the transformation of Jewish society post the destruction of the Second Temple, the separation of Christianity from Judaism, and the foundational role of Islam in reshaping the Middle East.

Key historical points include:

• Judean Kingdoms: Emergence and eventual conquest by larger empires like the Romans.
• Destruction of the Second Temple: Led to significant changes in Jewish religious practices and diaspora.
• Rise of Christianity: Transition from a Jewish sect to a dominant religion allied with the Roman Empire.
• Emergence of Islam: Muhammad's establishment of a new religious and political order, leading to rapid expansion.

Notable Quote:

"The early Christians were of course, Jews... It was only really after 70, after the destruction of the Temple had shown many that God had withdrawn his blessing from the Jews."
— Simon Sebag Montefiore [23:58]

Roots of Antisemitism and Religious Fanaticism

The discussion turns to the persistence of antisemitism, analyzing its theological and historical roots. Simon explains how religious narratives and historical grievances have perpetuated deep-seated animosities, making reconciliation in regions like Jerusalem exceptionally challenging.

Notable Quote:

"The simplest theological rationale for antisemitism is the persistence of Jews."
— Simon Sebag Montefiore [37:21]

He also touches upon the complexities of religious coexistence in Jerusalem, noting the city’s cyclical history of abandonment and resurgence under various religious dominions.

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with Simon emphasizing the intricate ties between historical events and contemporary issues, particularly in the Middle East. He underscores the importance of understanding historical contexts to navigate and possibly mitigate present and future conflicts.

Key Takeaways

• Historical Insight: Understanding the collapse of past empires provides valuable lessons for today's geopolitical challenges.
• Liberal Democracies: Their current internal crises could undermine decades of progress and global influence.
• Jerusalem's Significance: The city remains a potent symbol for multiple religions, holding the potential for both peace and widespread conflict.
• Religious Roots of Conflict: Deep historical and theological narratives continue to fuel modern antisemitism and religious fanaticism.

Recommended For Listeners

This episode is particularly insightful for those interested in:

• The interplay between history and current events.
• The historical roots of modern religious conflicts.
• Understanding the complexities of liberal democracies in the 21st century.

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