Episode Overview

Episode #440: “A World in Crisis”
Date: October 24, 2025
Host: Sam Harris
Guest: Robert Kaplan (journalist, author of The Coming Anarchy, Ends of the Earth, and A World in Permanent Crisis)

Sam Harris sits down with renowned journalist and global affairs analyst Robert Kaplan to discuss the enduring and evolving crises facing the world order. Their conversation, rooted in Kaplan’s latest book A World in Permanent Crisis, explores the unraveling of global stability, the persistence of environmental and demographic pressures, the fragility of democratic institutions, and the return of authoritarian personalities and movements. Drawing from past predictions and historical analogies, they survey the dangers and uncertainties confronting societies from the U.S. and Europe to Russia, China, and Africa.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Kaplan’s Approach to Journalism and His Career Path

• Foundations Beyond Headlines (01:47–03:03)
  • Kaplan recounts his shift from conventional journalism to a more philosophical and historical approach, integrating geography, history, and literature into his analysis.
  • “I got bored with conventional journalism... I wanted to visit the Museum of Anatolian Civilizations. I thought that would tell me more about Turkey than how many F15s they were going to buy.” (Robert Kaplan, 01:47)

2. Retrospective on “The Coming Anarchy”

• Prophetic Bleakness (03:03–06:12)
  • Harris describes Kaplan’s 1994 essay as forecasting the “fragmentation and disorder” that would follow the Cold War, contrary to the policy elite’s optimism.
  • Kaplan explains that he foresaw “anarchy in Sierra Leone and Cote d’Ivoire... models for what would later happen in Libya, Syria, Iraq, many other places." (Robert Kaplan, 05:23)
  • He emphasizes that his skepticism over “a world of liberal humanism” now seems prescient.

3. Technology and Global Interconnectedness

• Accelerating Instability (06:12–07:13)
  • Harris highlights how tech (internet, social media, air travel) has interconnected the world for better and worse, amplifying chaos: “Institutions fraying in one part of the world affect the institutions elsewhere.” (Sam Harris, 06:40)
  • Kaplan links this to the main premise of his recent book.

4. The Environment as a Central Security Concern

• Demography and Resource Scarcity (07:13–09:04)
  • Kaplan affirms his 1990s vision that “the environment... would eventually constitute the number one security issue of the 21st century.” (Robert Kaplan, 07:13)
  • Discusses population growth (especially in Africa), urbanization, and related pressures on resources, contributing to mass migration and unrest.
  • “Most of Africa now is urban... These places are harder to govern, harder to satisfy, because urban populations require complex infrastructure...” (Robert Kaplan, 08:18)

5. Demographic Shifts and Migration

• Europe-Africa Dynamics (09:04–10:18)
  • Striking statistic: “At the beginning of the 21st century, there was one African for every one European. At the end... there’s going to be seven Africans for every European.” (Robert Kaplan, 09:30)
  • Migration from Africa and the Middle East will “fuel European populism for decades to come.” (Robert Kaplan, 10:10)

6. The Global Weimar Analogy

• Fragility, Not Just Fascism (10:18–13:47)
  • Kaplan draws an analogy to the Weimar Republic—not to warn of another Hitler but of constant crisis and paralysis due to weak or fragmented governance.
  • “We all inhabit an anxious, claustrophobic world like Weimar... It’s not going to lead to another Hitler... but what it would lead to is like a permanent crisis, permanent paralysis...” (Robert Kaplan, 12:47)

7. Order Before Freedom: A Double-Edged Sword

• Balance Founders Feared (13:47–16:14)
  • Harris points out the risks of “privileging order” over freedom.
  • Kaplan, referencing the Federalist Papers, emphasizes the founders' fear of both tyranny and chaos; order is necessary for any freedom, but the craving for order can slide into authoritarianism.
  • Memorable quote: “Anarchy is a word we use. Most people have never experienced it. I’ve experienced anarchy in Sierra Leone, in Iraq, in Afghanistan... It is the most frightening political reality you can think of.” (Robert Kaplan, 15:41)

8. Institutions vs. Ideals in Democracy

• Lessons from America’s Strengths and Failures Abroad (16:14–19:14)
  • Harris notes the failure of efforts to export democracy: “The failure to build durable institutions just renders the whole project... synonymous with failure and internecine chaos.” (Sam Harris, 16:54)
  • Kaplan channels Samuel Huntington: “America is great not because of the character of its peoples, but because of its institutions.” (Robert Kaplan, 17:01)
  • Contrasts America’s gradual institutional evolution with countries forced to build from scratch post-colonialism.
  • “America has no business lecturing the world about its systems of government... The American form of government was... inherited from 17th century England.” (Robert Kaplan, 18:18)

9. Global Tour of Crisis: Russia

• Putin as the Most Dangerous Since Stalin (19:14–24:00)
  • Kaplan argues that Putin is a drastic break from the conservative, risk-averse Soviet politburo: "He's a risk taker. He governs alone, essentially.” (Robert Kaplan, 20:35)
  • Harris raises concern over Western and especially American right-wing admiration for Putin.
  • On Ukraine: “It revealed Russian weakness... In a great power military operation, Russia had no logistics... It turned out that Russia had none of this.” (Robert Kaplan, 22:10)
  • Analogy: “Amateurs discuss strategy and professionals discuss logistics.” (Robert Kaplan, 22:41)
  • Discussion ends with Kaplan predicting Russia’s continued decline after the war in Ukraine.

Memorable Quotes

• “I got bored with conventional journalism... I wanted to visit the Museum of Anatolian Civilizations. I thought that would tell me more about Turkey than how many F15s they were going to buy.”
  —Robert Kaplan (01:47)

• “The environment... would eventually constitute the number one security issue of the 21st century.”
  —Robert Kaplan (07:13)

• “At the beginning of the 21st century, there was one African for every one European. At the end... there’s going to be seven Africans for every European.”
  —Robert Kaplan (09:30)

• “We all inhabit an anxious, claustrophobic world like Weimar... It’s not going to lead to another Hitler... but what it would lead to is like a permanent crisis, permanent paralysis...”
  —Robert Kaplan (12:47)

• “Order comes before freedom because without order there is no freedom for anybody. You know, anarchy is a word we use. Most people have never experienced it. I’ve experienced anarchy in Sierra Leone, in Iraq, in Afghanistan... It is the most frightening political reality you can think of.”
  —Robert Kaplan (15:41)

• “America is great not because of the character of its peoples, but because of its institutions.”
  —Robert Kaplan (17:01, quoting Samuel Huntington)

• “Putin is very, very dangerous and the most dangerous and also the strongest Russian leader since Stalin died in 1953.”
  —Robert Kaplan (21:00)

Notable Timestamps

• 01:47 Kaplan’s rejection of conventional journalism; integration of philosophy, history, geography
• 05:23 Kaplan: “Anarchy in Sierra Leone and Cote d’Ivoire...models for Libya, Syria, Iraq.”
• 07:13 Environment as the top security issue
• 09:30 Africa-Europe demographic shift
• 12:47 “We all inhabit an anxious, claustrophobic world like Weimar...”
• 15:41 Real-world consequences of anarchy
• 17:01 The primacy of institutions in U.S. democracy
• 21:00 Putin’s dangers compared to Stalin
• 22:41 “Amateurs discuss strategy and professionals discuss logistics.”

Conclusion

This episode provides a sobering, historically grounded tour of global disorder, traversing decades of predictions and miscalculations. Kaplan’s work, as highlighted by Harris, continues to be eerily relevant: environmental stress, demographic change, weak institutions, mass migration, and the allure of authoritarianism all describe this era’s “permanent crisis.” Listeners leave with a deeper understanding that today’s turbulence is rooted not just in contemporary politics but in deep, structural forces playing out on a global scale.