Making Sense with Sam Harris — Episode #441

The Threat of Civil War

Guest: Stephen Marche
Date: October 31, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Sam Harris is joined by journalist and author Stephen Marche to discuss the rising threat of “civil war” in the United States—not as a recurrence of North vs South, but as a complex, contemporary form of escalating political violence. They explore Marche's book, The Next Civil War, and examine the risk factors, institutional failures, and societal dynamics intensifying America’s instability. Marche shares a distinctly Canadian vantage point and discusses how American turmoil reverberates north of the border. Together, they dissect the current moment, the psychological and political landscape, and how frailty in trust, diversity, and partisan identity could fuel future unrest.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

01. The Canadian Perspective on American Chaos

[02:05–05:32]

• Stephen Marche describes Canadian anxiety about the US:

  “To me, it's sort of like your big brother shows up at the door in a meth binge with a knife asking for money.” (03:16)

• Canadian policy and security shifts are happening in anticipation of instability in the US, including serious discussions about:
  • National security re-alignment
  • Trade diversification
  • Considering “whole society defense” policies similar to Finland’s approach to Russia
  • Even the option of becoming a nuclear power is debated
• Marche:

  “We're not powerless at all. It would be asymmetrical. But, you know, asymmetrical warfare does not tend to work out well for the country that is the Goliath in the David and Goliath scenario.” (05:08)

02. The Dangers of Trumpism: Chaos and Unpredictability

[05:32–06:48]

• The primary Canadian concern is not a specific Trump policy, but the “flood the zone” strategy, the unpredictability, and the “incipient chaos” unleashed by Trump’s leadership style.
• Deep US–Canada social and economic ties make American instability acutely destabilizing for Canadians.
• Marche:

  “America is a bus going off a cliff. And we're pretty attached to that bus.” (05:44)

03. The Trump Phenomenon and American Perceptions

[06:48–11:11]

• Sam Harris challenges Marche to answer how he’d respond to Americans who view Trump’s “strength” as restorative, not destructive.
• Marche reframes power in the 21st century as a function of alliances, trade, scientific talent, and soft power—not just military dominance or “norm-busting.”
• Both sides of the American divide sense societal collapse, not just the left:
  • The belief in a stolen 2020 election among Republicans
  • General consensus that the US “system is breaking and the constitutional order is falling apart.” (10:02)
• Marche:

  “Trump is really just a symptom... What he represents... is a breakdown in trusted institutions, a breakdown in the American dream... and a lot of other breakdowns. So, I mean, I think blaming Trump is just a mugs game. That's not clarity of vision to me.” (10:28)

04. Researching and Modeling Civil War

[11:11–15:56]

• The book is based on synthesizing political, agricultural, and social science models with extensive original interviews (about 200 people).
• Marche uses fictionalized vignettes to illustrate how modern civil war might manifest—emphasizing that future violence would not resemble state-vs-state armies, but decentralized, widespread political violence.
• Stephen Marche on Alex Garland’s film Civil War:

  “If Texas and California could agree on something, we wouldn't be having this conversation.” (13:47)

  • The movie’s aesthetics—like a mass grave dug by a man in dime-store glasses—capture emotional truths, but not political realities.

05. Definitions and “Risk Factors” for Modern Civil War

[15:56–19:57]

• Modern civil wars are “complex cascading systems,” not single events or single-cause phenomena.

• Major risk factors include:

  • Demographic change: “Minority-majority” status is statistically highly predictive of violence worldwide (US whites projected to be <50% by 2040)
  • Declining trust in institutions: Ongoing since the 1980s, spanning all sectors (church, media, government, civic organizations)
  • Economic inequality: Both horizontal (between groups) and vertical (rich vs poor), often more severe than at America’s founding
  • Hyperpartisanship: Now at levels unseen since the late 19th century

• Marche:

  “America has a lot of threat multipliers... As I said, it's not one thing, it's just all of them folding in on each other.” (19:47)

06. The Perils of Pluralism and Social Trust

[16:56–19:48]

• Diversity paradox:
  • Pluralism and multiculturalism are America’s unique achievements and sources of strength, but diversity can—in practice—undermine social trust (as per Robert Putnam’s arguments).
• Examples from India and Africa demonstrate these are global patterns, not purely American problems.
• Marche:

  “There's no question that it [diversity] does undermine social trust... This is a very horrific aspect of human nature that, as I said, is not, you know, that's not some problem with just white Americans.” (17:28)

07. Hyperpartisanship on Unprecedented Scale

[19:57–21:28]

• Sam notes the open hatred between political tribes and a new “tit-for-tat” approach to governance.
• Hyperpartisanship has reached post-Civil War era heights.
• Marche:

  “The last time it was this bad was... really going into the pre modern era to get hyper partisanship levels like you have now.” (20:58)

• In previous crises (Great Depression, political assassinations, Watergate), trust in institutions remained much higher than today.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “To me, it's sort of like your big brother shows up at the door in a meth binge with a knife asking for money.”
  — Stephen Marche, on Canada’s feelings about America, (03:16)

• “America is a bus going off a cliff. And we're pretty attached to that bus.”
  — Stephen Marche, (05:44)

• “Trump is really just a symptom... Blaming Trump is just a mugs game. That's not clarity of vision to me.”
  — Stephen Marche, (10:28)

• “If Texas and California could agree on something, we wouldn't be having this conversation.”
  — Stephen Marche, on the implausibility of united states in fictional civil war, (13:47)

• “There's no question that [diversity] does undermine social trust... it's not some problem with just white Americans.”
  — Stephen Marche, on diversity and social trust, (17:28)

• “America has a lot of threat multipliers at the time. As I said, it's not one thing, it's just all of them folding in on each other.”
  — Stephen Marche, (19:47)

• “The last time it was this bad was... really going into the pre modern era to get hyper partisanship levels like you have now.”
  — Stephen Marche, (20:58)

Important Timestamps

• [02:05] — Canadian view: security and trade realignment, new national service debates, nuclear option
• [05:44] — Marche’s central dread: chaos and unpredictability from US leadership
• [10:28] — Trump as symptom, not root cause, of institutional decay
• [15:56] — Explaining “complex cascading system” of factors leading to civil war
• [17:28] — Diversity, social trust, and the global demographic risk pattern
• [20:58] — Historical comparison: hyperpartisanship levels

Summary for the Uninitiated

This episode offers a deeply informed, sobering look at the forces threatening American stability from both within and without. Stephen Marche, with Canadian candor and comprehensive research, argues that the precipice on which American democracy stands is rooted in complex, cascading failings—economic, social, demographic, and political. The conversation pulls no punches, critically examining the dangers of unchecked partisanship, eroding trust, and the paradox of diversity in the American experiment. Both Harris and Marche agree that while Trump is alarming, he is only a symptom of much deeper malaise. The threat of an American “civil war,” they contend, won’t look like the history books—but rather like a long, grinding escalation of violence, fragmentation, and institutional decay, whose consequences will spill far beyond US borders.