Podcast Summary

Podcast: Making Sense with Sam Harris
Episode: #447 — The Unraveling of American Power
Date: December 4, 2025
Guest: Peter Zeihan (Geopolitical Analyst)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Sam Harris welcomes geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to dissect recent trends in American power, focusing on the post-2024 election landscape. They delve into topics such as the effectiveness of tariffs and industrial policy under Trump’s second term, the realities of deindustrialization, the fragility of global supply chains (semiconductors and AI), and the administration’s controversial foreign policy moves toward Venezuela and the Mexican drug cartels. The conversation is frank, analytical, and often critical—offering a rigorous, sometimes bleak vision of where American power is heading.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's 2024 Victory: What Changed?

[01:12 – 02:09]

• Sam Harris opens by pressing Peter Zeihan about his prior prediction that Trump couldn’t win in 2024.
• Peter Zeihan admits his forecast was wrong, attributing Trump’s victory to a broader demographic shift rather than the swing of independent voters, who in fact voted against Trump. “Every state in every demographic shifted substantially towards Donald Trump and allowed him to win…” (Zeihan, [01:54]).

2. State of Trump's Second Term: Metrics of Decline

[02:09 – 03:14]

• Zeihan is unequivocal: “I have not seen an unraveling of national power on the scale since the Soviet breakdown. So, so far, very impressed with how much damage is being done.” ([02:46])
• He likens current U.S. policies to economic disasters like Zimbabwe and Argentina, with “just a dash of French statism thrown in.”

3. Tariffs & The Myth of Reshoring

[03:14 – 05:27]

• Harris challenges the popular Trumpist narrative that tariffs are reviving American industry.
• Zeihan explains the difference between simple and complex manufacturing:
  • Simple goods (plastics, textiles): Some growth within U.S. borders due to tariffs.
  • Complex manufacturing (automobiles, aerospace, computing): Tariffs backfire, increase costs, and drive “steady deindustrialization of the value added, high skilled, labor intensive jobs.” ([04:48])
• Key metric: “Industrial construction spending…has been negative since tariff day.” ([05:14])

4. Economic Outlook: Deindustrialization, Inflation, and Shortages

[05:27 – 06:36]

• Zeihan warns that planned industrial and power expansions needed to prepare for the end of globalization will now be harder, slower, and more inflationary.
• “Now we have deindustrialization going on on top of that... we’re going to lose the products from abroad at the same time we no longer are producing very many of them here.” ([06:10])
• The grim scenario: a choice between “high inflation plus productivity or high inflation plus a goods shortage.” ([06:34])

5. AI, Data Centers, and Bubble Dynamics

[06:36 – 08:09]

• Harris notes AI-driven data center build-outs are the only bright (perhaps bubbly) spot in industrial investment.
• Zeihan confirms it’s a bubble, but whether it becomes catastrophic is unclear. Crucially, he points out:
  • Advanced chips for AI (GPUs) depend on globalized supply chains.
  • “If globalization breaks down, we won’t be able to make the GPU. So anything that’s installed now is all we have.” ([07:56])
  • FAB obsession (manufacturing plants) is misplaced; downstream steps like testing, packing, and design matter more, especially for national security.

6. Semiconductors and U.S. Vulnerability

[08:09 – 09:06]

• Addressing whether the U.S. is really onshoring chipmaking dependence:
  • “There’s 100,000 manufacturing steps…FAB facility is important, but there’s another 40,000 that are like that.”
  • Real value is in design and logistics (where the U.S. remains strong), but most manufacturing steps, especially testing and packaging, are offshored.

7. Policy Chaos and Economic Paralysis

[09:06 – 10:45]

• Zeihan diagnoses unprecedented government dysfunction:
  • “Donald Trump still hasn’t fleshed out the government. He fired the top several thousand positions, filled very, very few…a cabinet that has very little technical experience.”
  • “We just hit our 600th tariff change since January 20th… No one’s going to put money to put anything in the ground because they don’t know if it’s going to be worth their time.” ([10:36])

8. Venezuela & U.S. Military Actions: Legality & Ethics

[10:45 – 14:34]

• Harris and Zeihan address the extrajudicial killings of alleged drug smugglers in the Caribbean.
• Zeihan elaborates:
  • Venezuelan state collapse has made it a node for cocaine export (mainly to Europe).
  • The Trump administration hasn’t shared intel with Congress regarding recent military actions.
  • Public boasting of war crimes: “Both Trump and Hagseth brag about performing war crimes the week of Thanksgiving.” ([12:56])
  • Zeihan clarifies the legal ambiguity stemming from Congressional inaction: “Unless and until Congress actually decides to act, technically it’s legal. Doesn’t mean it’s right, doesn’t mean it’ll work.” ([15:39])

9. Mexico: Cartel Warfare and Unintended Consequences

[15:53 – 19:44]

• Zeihan highlights the unintended fallout from dismantling the Sinaloa cartel:
  • Sinaloa breaks into a dozen warring factions; violence surges.
  • Jalisco New Generation Cartel rises as a much more violent force: “Their idea is that the shit is the point…first thing they do…is shoot the mayor, shoot the police chief, randomly shoot a bunch of people…” ([17:37])
• Fentanyl’s rise is attributed to the crackdown on cocaine; smuggling becomes easier as border control increases (“…just ship stuff in containers.”).
• Zeihan concludes: “As long as Americans like their cocaine, you know this is going to happen.”

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Peter Zeihan on the unraveling of American power:
  “I have not seen an unraveling of national power on the scale since the Soviet breakdown…some combination of Zimbabwe, Argentine economic policy, maybe with just a dash of French statism thrown in.” ([02:41])

• On industrial malaise:
  “We’ve seen contraction in the manufacturing sector for the last six months. And the number that I pay attention to…the Federal Reserve…has been negative since tariff day.” ([05:14])

• On policy chaos:
  “No one knows what policy set is going to be tomorrow or next month or next year…everything is on hold.” ([10:32])

• On cartel evolution:
  “By taking out the Big Bad, we’ve helped inadvertently to create a new Big Bad that by many measures is a lot worse.” ([17:19])

• On the futility of enforcement:
  “Taking out cartel leaders will have absolutely no effect on that…as long as people want their narcotics, there is going to be an economic pipeline of some form for it.” ([19:22])

Important Segment Timestamps

• [01:12] — Trump’s 2024 win revisited
• [02:41] — The unraveling of American power compared to the Soviet collapse
• [04:48] — Tariffs and deindustrialization explained
• [06:10] — Inflation and productivity/goods shortages dilemma
• [07:56] — Supply chain fragility and the AI chip bottleneck
• [10:36] — Policy chaos and business uncertainty
• [12:56] — U.S. military actions and allegations of war crimes
• [15:39] — Legal ambiguity under the War Powers Act
• [17:37] — Rise of cartel violence post-Sinaloa
• [19:22] — The futility of the “kingpin” strategy

Memorable Moments

• Harris’ incredulity about open war crimes:
  “We don’t even kill drug smugglers when we catch them and convict them… and yet now we’re simply annihilating people who are alleged to be smuggling drugs…” ([13:29])
• Zeihan’s dark humor on policy:
  “This is some combination of Zimbabwe, Argentine economic policy, maybe with just a dash of French statism thrown in.” ([02:46])

Conclusion

This episode paints an unsettling portrait of American decline: chaotic governance, misguided economic policy, unchecked foreign adventurism, and the resilience of illicit networks. Peter Zeihan’s granular geopolitical expertise and Sam Harris’s incisive questioning make for a sobering but critical exploration of what “unraveling American power” means both at home and abroad.