Making Sense with Sam Harris, Episode #458

The Bulwark Against MAGA

Guests: Sarah Longwell & Tim Miller
Original Release: February 11, 2026

Main Theme

Sam Harris welcomes Bulwark media figures Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller to reflect on the evolved state of the American right, the dynamics driving Trumpism, the "Never Trump" movement, and the alarming rise of conspiracy and infotainment in conservative politics. The episode interrogates how rational individuals and established conservative intellectuals have rationalized their support for Trump or acquiesced to MAGA, and what this portends for American democracy.

Guest Introductions & The Bulwark’s Origin (00:40–04:24)

• Sam Harris introduces Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller, praising their passionate opposition to Trumpism.
• Tim & Sarah describe the various Bulwark podcasts—The Bulwark, Next Level, Takes, and The Focus Group—as well as their growing team, including colleagues like Bill Kristol and Jonathan V. Last (JVL).
• Origin of "The Bulwark" (03:05):
  • Sarah initially envisioned it as a "never Trump Drudge Report,” aggregating sane, dissenting Republican voices.
  • The closure of The Weekly Standard catalyzed moving beyond aggregation to staffing a new enterprise with disaffected conservatives.
  • The name “Bulwark” is nautical, signifying a fortification “between you and the bad thing.”

Notable Quote

“A bulwark…is like the thing that stands between you and the bad thing. Maybe cannon fire.”—Sarah Longwell (03:16)

Bios & Never Trump Roots (04:24–09:02)

• Sam marvels at the unique vantage of "Never Trumpers"—ex-Republicans now immune to standard tribalist attacks.
• Tim Miller’s background (05:13): Began as a GOP “campaign gypsy,” working on McCain, Huntsman, Romney, Jeb Bush campaigns. Turned activist against Trump in 2016, joining the proto-Lincoln Project "Our Principles PAC," defying warnings about Trump’s vengeance.
• Sarah Longwell’s background (07:05):
  • Started in GOP public affairs; traumatized by Trump’s 2016 ascent, began convening “sad Republican” meetings (likened to AA but “less joyful”).
  • Pivoted into focus groups, discovering to her shock that the base’s appetite for Trump was real, not an accident.

Notable Quote

“There were these meetings that were happening at the time of sad Republicans. And we would all get in a room and just be sad together. It was kind of like an AA meeting, but less joyful, maybe.” —Sarah Longwell (07:18)

Explaining Trumpist Rationalization (09:02–16:13)

Sam asks: Why have so many intelligent conservatives embraced Trumpism, minimizing his violations as mere style or “norm busting”?

Tim Miller’s Explanation (10:15)

• Tribalism as a hell of a drug:
  • Politics has become a team sport.
  • Rationalization, even in face of harm, is powerful: “the brain is very powerful…people can rationalize stuff really up until the moment or even…past the moment it’s causing them actual damage.”
  • Access to power & clubby social circles reinforce denial.
  • Propaganda and bad information compound the problem.

Anecdote: (11:44) Tim quotes an off-record friend:

“I just grab onto the one or two things that he's right about...and use that to motivate me.” —Tim's anonymous Republican friend (11:48)

• Hypocrisy and cognitive compartmentalization are the norm.
• Rationalization persists even when friends/family acknowledge private embarrassment.

Sarah Longwell’s “Triangle of Doom” (12:51)

• Three parts: Voters, right-wing infotainment, GOP officials—each reinforcing the other.
• Conservative media creates an incentive structure where cheerleading Trump displaces classical conservative principles.
• Trump’s celebrity and outsider status appealed at a moment of exhaustion with political dynasties.

Notable Quotes

“The toxic and symbiotic relationship between the voters, the right wing infotainment media and Republican elected officials...they work together as sort of a reinforcement mechanism.” —Sarah Longwell (12:51)
“Democracy is still about the voters. And the fact was Donald Trump caught the entire country off guard...” —Sarah Longwell (13:02)

Morality, Hypocrisy, and the Demonization of Dissent (16:13–22:53)

• Sam:

  • Remarks on Trump supporters’ ability to tune out his massive hypocrisy (e.g., caring about Biden family corruption, ignoring Trump’s excesses) and asks if there's any effort among right-aligned media to square this dissonance.

• Tim:

  • Discusses the irrelevance of calling out hypocrisy for those who’ve already embraced Trump post–January 6:

    "You're already in. So...when you see people doing it [calling out hypocrisy], it's usually people that have a niche area of genuine principle…but outside of that…there's no incentive to engage." (21:47)

• Sarah:

  • The post-January 6 media environment created unbreakable "sunk costs" for right-wing influencers.
  • Cites audience capture:

    “If they challenge Trump now...that’s what his audience wants. There’s a pressure.” (22:17)

• Shapiro as Case Study:

  • Megyn Kelly, Eric Erickson, Ben Shapiro—all post-1/6 pro-Trump due to audience incentives.

Deep Dives into Right-Wing Influencers

Ben Shapiro (23:27–29:45)

• Sam & guests dissect Shapiro’s journey: Initially left Breitbart over Trump, slowly pivoted to pro-Trump after audience pressure.
• Sarah: Finds Shapiro’s rationalizations the most contemptible due to his intelligence and knowledge.

“I hold out a great deal of contempt for the people who know better and have gone along with it because they have created a permission structure…” —Sarah Longwell (27:19)

Rationalization & January 6th (29:45–31:42)

• Public condemnation in the moment gave way to rationalization and memory holing as it became clear Trump’s star would not immediately fall.
• Tim: Many thought, post-1/6, “it was over,” and spoke freely, only to crawl back as Trump survived.

Candace Owens & the Rise of Conspiratorial Infotainment (32:57–39:51)

• Role among the young right:

  • Candace, Tucker Carlson, and Marjorie Taylor Greene form the “America First” recruiter wing—less about "Trump good" and more about radicalizing new, often young, audiences via infotainment.
  • Candace as a pipeline:

    "Her audience is young MAGA women...infotainment. They don’t get their news exactly from Candace. They get their news from...Ben Shapiro…but want the Candace spin because it’s fun and funny.” —Sarah Longwell (37:02)

• Infotainment feuds as soap opera:

  • Proliferation of performative feuds (Candace v. Ben, intra-MAGA soap opera) keeps audiences engaged.

“I feud with you all the time.” —Sarah Longwell to Tim Miller (39:48)

The Culture of Conspiracy & Vice Signaling (40:55–46:46)

• America Fest and the power of conspiracy thinking:
  • Even direct, personal allegations (e.g., murder conspiracy against Erica Kirk) aren’t radioactive; audiences crave being “in on the real” and conspiracy is intoxicating.

“…there's something intoxicating about the conspiracy, and it almost is like the details are kind of meaningless...You can just look at the numbers...there's something appealing about this.” —Tim Miller (44:21)

• Vice signaling:
  • The right has turned “vice signaling” (deliberately outrageous/rude statements) into bonding and identity practice, as an antidote to “virtue signaling” on the left.

"That vice signaling, though, is kind of a new way…it’s like both an antidote to virtue signaling…It’s like a code…" —Sarah Longwell (46:20)

• Algorithmic and infotainment feedback loops:
  • Sarah & Tim discuss how the democratization of media, algorithmic sorting, and the rise of "doom porn" have made conspiracy appealing across both political extremes (though much more virulent on the right).

Tucker Carlson & JD Vance (48:23–55:35)

• Tucker’s trajectory:
  • Sam: Once a thoughtful magazine journalist, now a “proper atrocity.”
  • Tim: Tucker’s alliance with JD Vance, son working for Vance, peddling “deep state” fears for Trump, and influenced by increasingly conspiratorial brother, Buckley Carlson (see 50:12).
• Tucker as future kingmaker:
  • Sarah: Sees him consolidating power through alliances with figures like Candace and the America First wing.

The Neo-Nazi/White Supremacist Tolerance Problem (51:58–54:20):

• Surprised no one in the GOP establishment seems to want to decisively disavow the Fuentes/MAGA America First crowd, fearing loss of their base.

“…they know they need those folks, though, because it's a key part of the base." —Tim Miller (52:50)

• Coalitional complexity:
  • Sarah: Many “normie” GOP voters have little awareness of these fringes, but social norming lets even casuals adopt "Trump is good" vibes.

The Super Bowl Analogy & the Nature of Voters (55:35–57:13)

• Sarah likens most American voters to Super Bowl partygoers who don’t know the teams—most are “light observers,” deciding based on vague impressions, not deep knowledge.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the feedback loop of rationalization:

  “The brain rationalization is a hell of a drug…people can rationalize stuff really up until…past the moment it’s causing them actual damage.” —Tim Miller (10:17)

• On MAGA vibes overtaking ideology:

  "Limited government, free markets...what the Republican Party was selling, actually there wasn’t a huge appetite for that anymore." —Sarah Longwell (14:03)

• On Ben Shapiro’s strategic acquiescence:

  “He [Ben Shapiro] gives them a way to slice that up morally that is absolutely untenable with any objective observer.” —Sarah Longwell (27:01)

• Vice signaling as cultural glue:

  “We all wear masks, and in time our faces grow to fit them.” —Sarah Longwell (45:39)

Key Timestamps

• [00:40] Guest intros and praise
• [01:42] Bulwark podcast ecosystem
• [02:49] Origin story of The Bulwark name
• [05:13] Tim Miller’s political journey
• [07:05] Sarah Longwell’s transition and focus groups
• [12:51] “Republican triangle of doom” explained
• [18:10] The right’s obsession with trans issues and child protection narratives
• [22:53] The feedback loop of audience pressure and media compliance
• [29:45] Memory-holing January 6th
• [39:43] “World-building” through MAGA infotainment feuds
• [44:21] The intoxicating pull of conspiracy
• [46:20] Vice signaling v. virtue signaling
• [50:12] Tucker’s radicalization and his brother Buckley
• [55:35] The Super Bowl analogy for the average voter

Takeaways

• Trumpism’s hold on the right is rooted in emotional incentives—tribalism, identity, infotainment, and moral rationalization.
• Key influencers have acquiesced not due to ignorance, but purely for audience and power retention, creating ever-narrowing incentives for dissent.
• The “Never Trump” position persists but is met with hostility, even from former allies.
• Political media has splintered into performative feuds, naked vice signaling, and conspiracy, echoing and amplifying at the base and elite levels.
• The structure of modern right-wing politics—audience capture, monetized outrage, and loyalty tests—makes any return to principle or reasoned debate vanishingly unlikely.

This summary reconstructs the conversation’s major themes, arguments, and moments, preserving the tone and intent of the speakers. It is meant for those seeking a comprehensive yet accessible grasp of the episode’s substance.