No industry is safe and no company is safe. In this candid panel, a real estate advisor, an investment banker, an independent director, and a restructuring attorney break down what is actually driving distress right now: post Covid hangovers masked by cheap credit, tariff and AI uncertainty, the war in Iran, and a wave of liability management deals that increasingly end in lender on lender litigation. They demystify the LME toolkit, debate whether out of court really saves money, and share war stories, including a liquidation that turned into a SpaceX bidding war.

In this episode:

Why distress is no longer industry specific, and what is fueling itPost Covid pain masked by additional credit, now colliding with higher ratesSponsors who bought at the Covid bump on six to seven times leverageOut of court vs. chapter 11, and why professional fees are back in focusLender on lender violence and the rise of pre bankruptcy litigationWhy pre packs now confirm in 20 days, and why it is still expensiveMediation: how even the most contentious cases settle 95% of the timeThe liability management toolkit explained: up tiers, drop downs, Pari plus, double dipsJ.Crew, blockers in credit agreements, and workarounds that evolve in real timeWhat makes an LME successful even when the company eventually filesThe board seat: managing sponsors, lenders, and management as their shrinkA case study: Akoustis, a patent suit, a liquidation bid, and a SpaceX rescueWhy private credit lenders need to act like owners, not just lendersThe 12 month outlook: healthcare, education, EdTech, media, consumer, retail

Chapters:

00:01 Intro01:10 Setting up the panel01:45 No industry is safe: LMEs and lender on lender violence04:19 Out of court conditions tied to new money05:58 What is driving distress: consumer, tariffs, rates07:22 Covid bump buyers and broken math08:14 The debt load and the year ahead10:02 Trustees, mediators, and the cost of staying out12:42 Why parties push deals to 11:59 pm17:56 Liability management explained21:18 Good code, bad code, and preference risk22:58 How to define a successful LME24:37 Board case study: Akoustis and the SpaceX auction26:39 Defining success in chapter 1129:39 The 12 month outlook31:09 Private credit lenders acting like owners35:55 Stressed sectors to watch

The panel:

Andy Graiser, Co President and Co COO, A&G Real Estate PartnersScott Mates, Partner, Restructuring and Special Situations Americas, PJT PartnersMatthew Kahn, Manager, MrsaKahn IIMichael D. Sirota, Member and Co Chair of Bankruptcy and Corporate Restructuring, Cole SchotzHost: Roger Aguinaldo, Founder and CEO, The M&A Advisor

Follow The Advisor Podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube, and subscribe to the M&A Alerts newsletter.

#Restructuring #LiabilityManagement #DistressedDebt #Bankruptcy #PrivateCredit #MergersAndAcquisitions #DealMaking