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Assumptive Goal Setting - HOF 2025

Manager Tools

Mon Dec 29 2025

Summary

Manager Tools Podcast: "Assumptive Goal Setting – HOF 2025"

Released: December 29, 2025

Episode Overview

In this classic Manager Tools episode, the hosts break down "assumptive goal setting," a powerful approach for managers and leaders to set bold, transformative goals for themselves and their teams. Recognizing the challenge most managers face when setting ambitious targets for the new year, the episode explains why traditional goal-setting methods often fall short and offers a simple, actionable process that jump-starts creative thinking and drives better outcomes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Paradox of Goal Setting in Organizations

Expectation vs. Reluctance:
Organizations and managers demand goals from others and themselves—from governments balancing budgets to teams aiming for targets—yet often resist setting ambitious personal or departmental goals.
- Quote: “How can we ask not to be held accountable for achieving goals while simultaneously expecting the institution we work in to have enough cash available to pay us?” (B, 01:18)

Why Goal Setting Feels So Hard

Lack of Practice:
Goal setting is rare but important, so most people are not good at it and find it daunting.
- “It's important to us, and we do it rarely. And so if it's important and we do it rarely, we're not going to be terribly good at it.” (C, 03:26)
Anchoring in the Present:
Managers tend to focus on last year's performance, which cements the status quo and makes future goals feel riskier.
- Quote: “If you do this, if you say, you know, this is how we did it, and this is where we are. And here's every number in detail… it makes today seem normal…But if you'll remember, last year, where you are now would not have been normal.” (C, 10:58)
The Illusion of Control:
The anxiety around setting bigger goals stems from a sense of losing control over the future, making managers hesitate to stretch beyond current achievements.
- Quote: "That lack of control, that feeling there is not a comfortable one." (B, 10:06)

The Power of Assumptive Goal Setting

The Three Steps:

Don’t Start with Where You Are
- Reviewing past performance limits creative thinking and encourages incremental, safe goals.
- Instead, deprioritize last year’s numbers in visual aids—place them at the bottom, not the top.
- Quote: “Put this year's numbers at the bottom of any chart you're going to do. Put the new targets at the top...as opposed to putting this year's numbers at the center of attention.” (C, 14:05)
Assume You’ve Already Achieved the New Goal
- Mentally leap forward: picture yourself and the team already having hit the ambitious objective.
- This shift changes the brain’s approach, disengaging from defending the status quo and enabling creative, unconstrained thinking.
- Quote: “Assume you are already at a new goal, you've already achieved it...picture yourself already there and you look back at the past.” (C, 03:52)
Reverse-Engineer: Ask What Had to Happen to Get Here
- Look “back” from the imagined future and identify the actions, changes, and decisions required to reach that point.
- This unlocks strategies and solutions that aren't bound by existing limitations.
- Quote: “Once you picture yourself at that future goal...you simply ask what had to happen to get here.” (C, 05:40)

Management Practice: Collaboration, Consensus, and Goal Ownership

Bosses Can Set Bold Goals:
Leaders don’t need universal team consensus to set goals; collaboration can focus on how to achieve, rather than what.
- Quote: “There's no inherent requirement that bosses gain consensus...regarding goals they're going to set.” (C, 16:30)
Team Buy-in Follows Success:
Even if ambitious goals seem impossible to the team, successful outcomes win support (story of reducing a critical metric from 657 to 7).
- Quote (Story): “All the goals were something around that magnitude, something that people considered impossible. And the fact is, at the end of a year, we got all of them. All of them except one....We got down to seven.” (B, 19:00)
Stretch Goals Drive Different Thinking:
Incremental goals lead to incremental effort; transformative goals require completely different processes and innovations.
- Quote: “657 to 600 would have seemed like a reasonable [goal]. But...what they would have thought about was working harder, doing the things they do today better. And that's not what gets you those big goals...” (B, 23:13)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Visualization:
- “Picture yourself as you get one of your biggest raises. Picture yourself when you get a big bonus. See the check in your hands...” (C, 34:10)
- “If you picture yourselves at 10 or 20 or 50% growth...planning backward from there, the path…looks much clearer.” (C, 40:18)
Leo Burnett’s Mantra:
- “Reach for the stars. You may not get one, but you won't end up with a handful of mud either.” (C, 22:00)
Separating the Goal from the How:
- “Effective leaders trust that they can figure out how to do it later. They separate the goal from the how, and they free themselves and their teams up to be imaginative, creative, and willing to consider new ideas...” (C, 33:12)
On Incrementalism:
- “Incremental gains are for the small-minded, frankly.” (C, 42:21)

Important Timestamps

The common reluctance to set goals vs. public expectations — 01:18
Why starting from the present limits ambition — 03:52
Feeling powerless and overwhelmed by big goals — 08:14
Assumptive goal setting explained: Visualize achievement, then plan backwards — 05:40, 26:10, 36:06
Leader’s story: Setting “impossible” goals and nearly reaching them — 18:48
Why consensus isn’t needed for goal-setting — 16:30, 24:07
Visualization techniques for creative thinking — 34:10
Summary and call to action — 39:11, 40:18

Actionable Takeaways

When setting goals for your team, resist the impulse to start with last year’s numbers.
Visualize your team having already reached next year's ambitious goals—feel the success.
From this imagined future, reverse engineer the steps, changes, and key decisions that could have made it possible.
Remember: You don’t need universal buy-in on every goal—leadership often means setting the bar above what feels “safe.”
Stretch for outcomes that truly excite; incremental improvements rarely inspire teams.
Use simple charts: put next year’s goal at the top, last year’s at the bottom, and center collaboration on how to reach the new target.

Episode Tone & Language

The discussion is candid, practical, and encouraging, with a touch of humor and a passion for leadership growth. The hosts speak from experience—lacing managerial “tough love” with memorable anecdotes and practical advice.

Final Thoughts

Assumptive goal setting is about freeing yourself and your team to pursue extraordinary achievements—not just incremental gains. By breaking free from the constraints of the present and imagining success as already achieved, managers can unlock the creativity, motivation, and action needed to deliver truly impactful results.

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Transcript

A (0:00)

Hey folks, Sarah here from Manager Tools and you guessed it, because we're getting ready for the new year and you yourselves are thinking about all of those things that you must accomplish in 2026. Today we're going to visit you with a classic Manager Tools recording, a podcast that we always release around this time of the year. Coming at you today with assumptive goal setting. Want to start the new year as a stronger leader? Well, the Effective Manager conference gives you proven tools for one on ones and feedback, coaching and delegation skills you'll use every day to get better results from your team. Make 2026 the year to lead with clarity and confidence. Register now@manager-tools.com training.

B (0:47)

Welcome to Manager Tools. Today's assumptive goal setting. Here we. Now surely we spent some time talking about the importance of goals in the past, right?

C (1:13)

Oh, I hope so.

B (1:14)

We've done this for. I don't know, we've done this for a while.

C (1:17)

They're big.

B (1:18)

But it's really funny how many people don't want to have to set goals yet they expect all sorts of publicly visible people and organizations and institutions to do just that. We expect our governments to live within their means. Which course requires goals and planning and things like that.

C (1:35)

Budgets.

B (1:36)

Right, right. And we expect our teams to win, which surely they would not do if they weren't setting goals of winning. Right, right. We expect our companies to meet their budgets so we can get our raises and all the kind of and get the budget we like every year and perform as they say they will. All those things take goals. And how can we ask not to be held accountable for achieving goals while simultaneously expecting the institution we work in to have enough cash available to pay us? When they say paying on time is a goal, surely somebody in finance or cash management has a plan for. Right, right. Yeah, of course. The answer is we can't if we want to be a professional part of the organization.

C (2:16)

This is a bit like the conversation you and I have when the company that someone is working for wants to grow 5% and the manager puts together a budget about how they're going to grow 1% or 2% because they just can't get any more. And it's like, okay, so somebody else is going to do 10 just to make up for the fact that you're not an effective manager and can't figure out how to get to five. Yeah, or let's do 5% cuts and the manager does. Well, I'll cut two because really I'm particularly important.

C (3:52)

Exactly. So this is part of a couple of other casts that we're going to put out about the general goal setting processes. But here's a simple three step process about the goal themselves, about how to be willing to stretch a little bit more to get a little bit more out of your team. So the first rule is when you're trying to set a goal for whatever, a reduction or an increase or whatever, don't start with where you are. Believe it or not, it's a classic mistake that managers make when we're trying to be creative about the future. They say, okay, let's go over everything we did this year. People generally remember what you did this year and it doesn't help you be creative about the future. Number two, and this will sound corny to people, this is why we call it assumptive goal setting. Assume you are already at a new goal, you've already achieved it. The point here is if you start with where you were thinking about a 10 or 20% improvement is about creating the future. And people are inherently uncomfortable with it. They think they have to be imaginative and creative and they don't think of themselves that way all the time. And because of that, it's Very, very hard. They begin to defend the status quo of wherever they are now. But if you assume you're already at a new goal, you picture yourself already there and you look back at the past, in other words, the year that's already happened, and that in real life is actually in the future, it becomes much easier to engage as different brain functions. It's much easier to see, how could I get to a 20% improvement if I'm already there. And that's the third point. Once you picture yourself at that future goal, let's say a 20% revenue improvement, then you simply ask what had to happen to get here. In other words, not let's plan for the future. Gosh, the moment the future starts, we don't know what's going to happen. So how would we plan what's going to happen in the future when we don't have any control over it? That's different than saying, okay, we're already at 20%. Let's look back at the previous year. What would we have had to have done from a year ago to now in order to get 20%? And people are much more comfortable talking about possible strategies, plans, actions, operational changes, process changes and so on when they are looking back at what they have already done. It sounds a little mental maybe for some folks, but this is how a lot of professionals do it. They assume they're already there and then plan in reverse, if you will, rather than planning about the future, which people are uncomfortable with.

C (10:58)

You don't accept the idea that the future is unknown. You simply pick what future you want and then you go get that future, and then you look back and say, it wasn't known. It was known and I did it. And it's a question of control. Right. Maybe control is the wrong word, Mike. Maybe it's just lack of certainty or lack of knowing as opposed to believing. Right. But you're right. The thing is, this isn't just a management trick, okay? This is a standard mental process. Psychologists and sociologists use this all the time. Even futurists use this. And look, here's the thing. Here's what we're getting to, folks. Never start a future goals discussion with a detailed review of where you are. And especially avoid. Especially avoiding a how we did it this year discussion, which takes a half an hour. Just because you know those things, this is where we are, and this is how we did it. And because they're certain, and you don't want to talk about the uncertain future, you don't know how to be creative, doesn't mean spending more time on where you already are is going to help. If you do this, if you say, you know, this is how we did it, and this is where we are. And here's every number in detail that sets the present situation you're in as the standard. It makes today seem normal. Right. It's just acceptable. Right? This is how we got here. But if you'll remember, last year, where you are now would not have been normal. It would have required creativity. It makes it seem. It makes it seem where you are now, frankly. Easy, right? And what happens there, you might say to yourself, well, why wouldn't I want it to think of now as being easy? Well, here's why. Lots of people do this and take it for granted as sort of level setting. Let's all get on the same page for clarity, inducing. This is what happened last year as open communication. And again, I've said it before, I'll say it again, that it's about spending time on the things we know as opposed to having to deal with the things we don't know. And I've done it too. Right? But we're not saying that you're not where you are. We're not saying that it's not good for people to know how they got there. We're not saying those things aren't true about a review of the previous year. They're just not helpful to where you want to go in terms of picturing, creating, imagining, visioning next year's numbers and next year's plans.

C (15:37)

Yeah, okay. That's really kind of a different question. It's part of the process, and I'll answer it. And really, what I'm talking about is just the idea here about thinking about the goals. But that said, there's a couple of ways you can handle that. Look, if you really want to be sensitive to your team's input, and by the way, there are times when we recommend that and times when we don't, you can put last year's numbers at the bottom of a chart. Right. And leave the top lines for next year's numbers blank. Okay, now remember, you don't spend any time at all when you're collaborating with your team going over how you got to your numbers. That just, again, cements the present in people's minds. And they'll remember it pretty well, right? They will. Now, on the other hand, we'd still recommend highlighting the chart is about next year's numbers. You put next year's numbers, whatever, they're going to be words. You'll leave blank grid spaces for those numbers, but it will be the top line. Perhaps it'll be in a larger font, perhaps it'll be bold, perhaps it'll be different color, perhaps it'll have a special wider border to go around it. And rather than starting with last year's numbers or actually this year's numbers, you put those at the Bottom in smaller font and plain type and say, okay, here are last year's numbers. Let's now talk about where we're going to be next year. Now, that's one way to do it. Or look, folks, it's completely reasonable. And if when I say this, your response is, well, no, that's not reasonable, you're wrong. It's a different way of doing it. It happens a great deal. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. It depends on the team, it depends on the situation. But what you can do is seed, as in planting a seed, the minds of your directs and put numbers in the grid for next year before you have your discussions. Okay, now, I know some of you. Wait, wait, wait. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, you are. Gosh, yeah, you are with your background. But look, people say, aren't we collaborating? And yeah, sure we are. But folks, there's no inherent requirement that bosses gain consensus with their directs regarding goals they're going to set. Okay? And I want to spend a minute. It just popped into my head. I want to spend a minute talking about the difference between collaboration and consensus and brainstorming and goal setting. Those are all different. We don't just smush them all together and then allow our directs to say, no, I don't want that number. Right, you can in fact, pick a number. Now, you could also work individually with people to get them to commit to that number before you come to the session.

C (20:45)

Oh, yeah. In fact, last night, when I was thinking about this cast, it's morning as we're here recording, and it's quiet in our houses. I immediately. I mean, every time I hear this story, I get goosebumps. I get excited about it because it reminds me to not simply do podcasts about things that people will be comfortable with. Right. It says there is a whole nother world out there. That's a stretch, that's a growth, that's a goal beyond what you think. And people do it all the time. And they're not necessarily fabulously clever managers. They're real people who just say, no, I believe we can do more. I see things in this team that other people don't. And I'm going to ask you to do more and greater. I'm always reminded of Peter the Great's quote about Russia. I will drag you kicking and screaming into the modern world. He was a dictator and probably a high D last Night, as I was reading over the cast, I was reminded of Leo Burnett, the great American advertising company. I often joke about this at conferences. What do Tony the Tiger, the Frosted Flakes mascot, Snap, Crackle and Pop, The Rice Krispies mascots, and the Jolly Green Giant, an American food product mascot. What do they all have in common? By the way, this was during a time when mascots and talking animated creatures were popular in television advertising. But the answer is the guy who created them, Leo Burnett, who founded a advertising company called Leo Burnett. Leo Burnett's logo is a picture of a hand reaching for stars. Because one of Leo Burnett's favorite sayings was reach for the stars. You may not get one, but you won't end up with a handful of mud either. In fact, I was on the website last night looking. I wanted some black pencils that are famous. I had one a number of years ago and have lost it. They're distinctive and Leo Burnett famous for their black pencils. If anybody knows anybody at Leo Burnett and wants to send me some pencils as a gift, I'd be happy to reimburse you. But yeah, it's that sense of there's more out there. Right. You can completely change things. It's hard work, but rather than plotting and saying, okay, 3% more, you can have an out of body experience. And that's what this cast is about is saying, I'm not going to settle from 650 to let's get to 550 and then next year it'll be 450. Because that doesn't appreciably change things, does it?

C (24:07)

That's awesome. And look, I want to make a point. I want to go back to the point I made earlier about consensus and collaboration and brainstorming. Look, folks, you can brainstorm with your team about a goal you've already set. That's okay. You can come to consensus about the process you use to get to that goal. And if you're saying, oh, no, no, no, Mark, I would feel uncomfortable doing that, well, good, that's what I'm suggesting. You may need to get a little out of your comfort zone here in order to set a significant goal. Now, the goals don't always have to. It may be you only think you can get to 5%, but the process we're recommending here still could work. But the point I'm making is let's not confuse brainstorming coming up with lots of ideas with collaboration, which does not necessarily include brainstorming. And it's just sharing and communicating and then consensus, which, frankly, we don't like. You can brainstorm with your team based on goals you've come up with. You can brainstorm what the goal can be together if you want. You can brainstorm ideas to get there together, or you can be more directive and say, here there's three things that we're going to do, whether you like it or not. You probably say it differently than that, but you have the ability with your willpower. Hopefully you'll socialize the idea first. And look, we do rarely recommend consensus. It's highly misunderstood, it's terribly difficult to achieve, it's overrated. And it's almost always applied incorrectly in our experience, particularly when it comes to the annual goals. And if you get in a situation where you think consensus and collaboration are lovely ideas and you have two people on your team who are literally not willing to agree to the new goal, you're essentially saying, yeah, we're going to turn the asylum over to the inmates. We're going to. As a direct, I don't want to go there. So therefore we're not. I mean, then suddenly everybody starts growing at the lowest growth rate that the weakest direct will tolerate, which is backwards thinking. Yeah, right. So I think we probably beat up the whole idea of what not to do, although it was designed to also get into what we're going to do as well, right?

C (26:18)

Yeah, exactly. If you assume it, if you just say, well, we're here. This is one of the most powerful techniques I have ever learned. It is so simple, and yet, wow, does it make a difference? It's the kind of thing that frankly ought to be taught in schools, even business schools. Large organizations nowadays are starting to address creativity and innovation, all those kind of things more directly. But it seems like a lot of the guidance that is being recommended is about structure or rewards or really organizational processes. The innovation stuff we read tends not to be terribly specific. Oh, God. Okay, sorry. Everything we read tends to be not specific, but it doesn't really help the individual manager. Right. But look, it can be some simple things that can make a huge difference. And this is one of those manager tools that are available to everybody and yet nobody seems to use it. It's simple. Rather than starting with last year's numbers and goals, hopefully we beat that horse to death. And I apologize we went on so long. Folks, what we're saying here, rather than spending time last year, rather than creating a comfort level with the present, we start with the future. We say, okay, let's put ourselves into the future a year from now, celebrating our successes. We say to ourselves, we've already arrived. Here's the number we achieved, the goals we set a year ago, which actually is now, but it's in the past in this visualization we're doing. Doing. Right. So think about it. What's a better way to define imagining than picturing the future? And what better way to picture the future as opposed to standing in the present and guessing about it or thinking about where we might end up? What's a better way to picture it than by visualizing ourselves there and then describing where we are, what it's like, and then, of course, last step, how we got there. Look, if you want a 10% increase in performance from your folks, let's just say that for a second. And it just occurs to me, every time I think about numbers, the 657 pops into my head. And folks, remember Mike's story. And I promise you this, Mike, and I guarantee you that there is someone not unlike you right now who is untethered enough from all the rules and processes and procedures that you would quickly say would keep you from getting a 10% improvement that they could easily beat, not because they're a way better manager than you at all. We're not scolding you here that there are people who because they can't see those things, because they aren't tied to those things, because their creativity has not been limited by the day to day processes, the ruts that they're in. And by the way, that goes for Mike and I as well. They could easily beat a 10% improvement. So if you balked at 10%, I promise you there's somebody who'd say I'm not tethered to the old ways I could do it. The fact is, the worst enemy to more audacious goals and therefore more rewards for everybody. Our own ties to our present set of behaviors and principles and rules that are written and rules that are unwritten policies designed to improve performance. All those things tie us down because some of the policies designed to improve performance also limit unique breakout ideas that people consider creative. Look, what effective goal setting managers and executives do is they ask what does the business need from me or from us? They do not ask what do we think we can do? Which is a present to the future thinking as opposed to I'm already there. Let's look back on how it happened. The what do we think we can do? Question is essentially extending the existing behavior set into the future with something extra added on top. This may be hard to get. I wrote it several times and couldn't quite get it right. If you think the what do we think we can do questions and therefore it's where we are now is okay, and we're going to extend that a little bit. It makes smaller the improvement and larger the existing set of behaviors. If I'm already at 100% and somebody says I have to get to 105 next year, then all I'm really thinking about is the 5% difference. And it makes the 100% that I already did more powerful, more important, 20 times more important than the 5% improvement. Okay, it says. It basically says, put this little extra bit on top of what we're already doing. It says we're going to do almost everything the way we did it before, but we might also do some new things or some more things, but only as a fraction of the whole. And that, according to futurists and creativity people, is totally limiting as a mindset. It's even crippling to our next inevitable step, which is, okay, what are we going to do to get to our goals? It literally says, you don't have to be different next year. All you have to do is do a little bit more. But the fact is, effective managers and executives who are setting goals ask, what does the business need from me or us? They approach it from 200% down, looking down to the 100% that you're already at this year, right? Because whatever you achieve this year, you're at 100% of. They look at it from the other side. They step out of the present, think about the future, and say, what's needed. They start with the outcome rather than with the installed base. They think of results, which in the case of goals, is actually the achievement of them. In their mind, the goal, whatever it is, can be achieved because they're picturing themselves already having done it. And suddenly, if you ask for a 20% improvement for your folks and you look back from the 20%, 120% number, you spend a lot more time looking at the 20% and thinking creatively about building a road to get from where you were a year ago to now, the 20% improvement. You don't spend a great deal of time cementing in your head all those things that caused you to get to 100%, which of course makes doing them differently next year harder to picture. Now, if you're asking, okay, what about how they're going to do it, folks, it's a great question, but it's still too soon to ask it. The moment you say, we're at 100%, let's talk about everything we did this year and maybe we can get a 10% improvement. Everything becomes about how now. It becomes about extending what you're already doing. It becomes about just getting more done and so on. But thinking about the future first, picturing the next year as having already happened is at the heart of why assumptive goal setting works so well. Rather than concerning ourselves with the how. Again, it's usually linear, it's usually extensive of existing processes and procedures, and it's tied to old ways. Effective goal setters only think first of the final result. They trust that the how can be figured out later. I mean, Mike, did you know how when you went from 60 to 57, when you set a goal of going to zero?

C (33:04)

No flipping clue. Yeah. Yeah. And folks, you might think, those of you who are high Cs, even though Mike's a high C, you might think, oh my gosh, I could never do that. But literally, it is moving away from what you're comfortable with. It's literally having no flipping idea that frees you up and you Might say, well, gosh, what if I don't get there? Well, Mike didn't. He only got to seven and it didn't matter because it was such a game changing thing that everybody benefited for years later, basically, effective leaders. And you notice I switch from manager to leader. Effective leaders trust that they can figure out how to do it later. They separate the goal. Here's the key. They separate the goal from the how. And they free themselves and their teams up to be imaginative, creative and willing to consider new ideas around the how in order to unlock that new potential. Okay, so, okay, what does this mean? Action wise? If you think you and your team are capable of 20% more productivity, state that as your key goal. Despite misgivings from others, plant your flag in the ground at 20% first. And then, and only then ask yourself, how am I going to get there? So what, what do you do? It means you say out loud to your team in a planning discussion, don't worry about how we're going to get here. Start with just the picturing of it. For some of you, this is going to be hard and that's okay. But if you need to pretend that you're crazy, by the way, that's pretending that you're crazy is actually a futurist idea as well. And just assume it's so for a moment and you might go on. And again, many of you are going to think this is a little bit weird, but this is how the professionals who are good at this do it. Picture yourself as you get one of your biggest raises. Picture yourself when you get a big bonus. See the check in your hands. Think about how your spouse is going to feel when he or she sees it. Think about the new office you might have. Think about what it'll be like if you get promoted based on the year that you've had. Think about your teammates celebrating the win. Picture them celebrating the win. Picture yourself talking to one another. I never believed we'd get here, but we're here. Wow. It's a great feeling. Think about the new processes that are in place, that are more robust, that you helped create, that are really better than the old ones. Think about the budget for the fact that there'll be more changes and improvements that will be available to you. Think about the look on other people's faces when they realize you guys were the ones that made it happen. Picture all those things. And look, I know it sounds corny.