Should the U.S. seek balanced trade? What would a potential “decoupling” with China look like? And what’s driving the current divergence between the “soft” and “hard” economic data?

In this episode of Market Currents, Northern Trust Wealth Management CIO Katie Nixon sits down with BCA Research Chief Strategist Peter Berezin for a deep dive on the state of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners, and the many implications for the economy and capital markets.

In the discussion, Katie and Peter explore the premise of seeking balanced trade, a potential decoupling of the most important bilateral trade relationship— the U.S. and China — and outline the complications of resetting trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. They also discuss the current contrast between the soft and hard economic data, the direction of inflation and growth, and Peter’s outlook for a 4,450 finish for the S&P 500.

(1:34) - Should the U.S. seek to have balanced trade with each of its trading partners?

(5:13) - Will the U.S. face retaliation from countries that import U.S. services?

(7:56) - Will a trade war accelerate the economic decoupling between the U.S. and China?

(9:59) - How might Canada and Mexico react to trade negotiations with the U.S.?

12:06) - Why is there divergence between the weak soft survey data on business and consumer confidence and the more resilient hard economic data?

(13:35) - What is the likely Fed response if the economy weakens later this year and inflation picks up?

(16:33) - What is the probability of recession in the U.S.?

(18:26) - If we had a recession, how deep would it be and how long would it last?

(20:48) - How will the Trump administration balance the need for tariff revenues with the need to avoid a weakening economy?

(22:59) - What is the rationale for a 4,450 price target on the S&P 500 Index for 2025, and what might change this forecast?

The views and opinions expressed by Peter Berezin are solely his and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Northern Trust Corporation or its affiliates. Northern Trust takes no position with respect to such views and opinions in distributing this publication.

Tariffs in Focus: Trading on Uncertainty with BCA Research Chief Strategist Peter Berezin