MM #303: Market Turmoil — What You Need To Do Right Now (Before It’s Too Late)

Summary

Market Mondays #303: Market Turmoil — What You Need To Do Right Now (Before It’s Too Late)

Date: March 31, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal, Troy Millings, Ian Dunlap (Jay)
Network: Earn Your Leisure (EYL)

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Episode Overview

This special Market Mondays episode tackles the topic dominating both the economy and headlines: heightened market turmoil caused by war, recession fears, and sector volatility. The hosts, joined by resident market expert Ian “Red Panda” Dunlap, break down what investors should do right now, delivering practical strategies for making (and keeping) money during uncertain times. They offer technical tips, economic outlooks, and hard-hitting talk on wealth disparity, while fielding questions from the community—providing insight for both short-term traders and long-term investors.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current Market Volatility: What’s Happening?

• Theme: The stock market is experiencing significant turmoil—a “spooky hours” stretch shaped by political escalation, war in Iran, and volatility across major indexes.
• The Mag 7 tech stocks are down sharply; oil is surging; volatility index (VIX) is rising (25:10).
• "This is what you call spooky hours. The second year of a presidency traditionally is the worst for the stock market cycle... Add war, oil strife, and you’ve got disaster in the making." — Jay (18:58)
• The market hasn’t “fully collapsed”—but there is anxiety about a deeper decline similar to the 2008 crisis (22:32).

2. Trading & Investing in Turmoil: Handling Volatility

Trading Tips (08:33, 10:11)

• Ian: "Just because there’s more volatility in the market doesn’t mean you should take more trades. Less is more... The people who've made the most money are the ones who held their trades for the longest. If you lose, you deserve to be broke." (08:38, 09:45)
• Stick to 12 high-quality trades per year if possible; don’t get caught in overtrading.
• Troy: "If you’re trading options or buying equities, buy time. Long-term vision lets you survive volatility." (10:28)
• Set your plan and stop-loss BEFORE entering a trade; know your profit target and pullback levels.

Long-Term Strategies

• Seasonality statistics: Historically, March can now be considered a 'worry month' in addition to August, especially if there’s geopolitical turmoil or viral outbreaks (15:40-17:05).
• April and November are typically the strongest performance months for the S&P 500 (17:05).

3. Specific Market Concerns & Sector Analysis

War & Geopolitics (18:58–22:41)

• War in Iran directly spiking oil and threatening global supply chains (e.g., Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz closures).
• Risk of escalation leading to global economic consequences: "Now you got 30% of the world’s cargo in danger of being strangled over arrogance... It’s a disastrous, unnecessary war." — Jay (20:44)
• Every crisis presents opportunity: declining tech presents buying chances for those who are ready (23:01).

Opportunities Amid Crisis (23:01–25:22)

• Max 7 stocks (MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, META, TSLA, GOOGL) are down substantially; this is the time to look for entry into fundamentally sound companies as they reach historical support thresholds.
• "This is where thousand percent returns are birthed. We’ve watched things depreciate and took advantage of it." — Rashad (23:47)

Rotation to Energy

• Sector rotation out of tech and into energy (oil, utilities) is classic during times of recession/war. (50:37)
• "Tech to energy is the real sector rotation, not 60/40 bonds." — Troy (50:37)

Utilities, Semiconductors & Index ETFs

• For conservative investors: stick with broad ETFs (VTI, VO, VHT, SMH, XLK/QQQ, XLE, XLU) for diversified exposure and downside protection (70:44, 71:14).
• “In times of uncertainty, go conservative, grab your ETFs, just chill.” — Rashad (71:44)

4. Technical Analysis Tools & Technical Management

• EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) are critical for timing entries and exits. Watch for major indexes to touch long-term EMAs (e.g., 400-day)—these have historically triggered strong rallies (39:53-40:33).
• Use technicals like the VIX, VVIX, and crude oil to indicate market bottoms for major buying opportunities (37:17–39:31).

5. Options Trading Deep Dive

• Write down your criteria before every trade:
  • Has the equity fallen in price?
  • Has the bid/ask spread depreciated?
  • What is your depreciation threshold? (e.g. 20–40%)
  • Buy time—consider LEAPs rather than short-term contracts.
  • In volatile times, focus on ETFs over single stocks for less dramatic swings (33:37-34:32).
• Stop-Loss Best Practices
  • Set stop-losses at 20–30% for safety on most contracts; up to 40–50% on very high-conviction trades (46:09–46:31).
  • For long-term positions, set stop-loss based on cost basis, not on intra-trade appreciation (105:11).

6. Macro-Economic Cycles & Historical Analogies

• 2008 bear market referenced as spiritual precedent; the current “correction” has not reached those levels of pain—yet (25:22).
• "If you take a long historical view, realize that from the drop of a midterm election, median return one year out is +39.8%. Hold for the long-term.” — Ian (29:36)
• Focus on "stock of the decade," not just the hot stock of the year.

7. Wealth Gap & Societal Impact

• Wealth inequality is worsening, especially for Black Americans and the broader bottom 50%.
• "Recessions only hurt poor people... Rich people have opportunities in every crisis." — Jay (53:18)
• AI and automation will accelerate the wealth divide and cause job losses, especially in white-collar jobs. (73:17–74:13)
• Trade professions like electrician, plumber, HVAC are seen as increasingly valuable, accessible alternatives (74:34–75:56).
• Healthcare, food quality, and living longer are now also becoming functions of wealth (76:21–79:42).

8. Community Q&A: Practical Advice & Investment Scenarios

• How to invest $50,000 or $100,000 today: prioritize safety, stick to index/ETF allocation (25% each in 4 sectors/ETFs). (69:22–71:44)
• For beginner futures traders: Don’t overtrade—stick to 12 trades/year, focus on quality over quantity (99:39–100:44).
• On stop-losses for long-term holdings: only change stop-loss if your thesis changes, not simply when up (104:38–105:46).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Just because there’s more volatility in the market doesn’t mean it’s time to take more trades... Less is more.” — Ian (08:38)
• “If you lose, you deserve to be broke.” — Ian (09:45)
• “When Powell is saying we need to rebalance even the United States debt to GDP, that’s a concern.” — Ian (13:57)
• “Wealthy people are living longer to accumulate more wealth. That means there’s always going to be a permanent employee class.” — Rashad (77:15)
• “AI is the final infinity stone in racism—now it separates the racial wealth gap away from a system and puts it against the machine.” — Troy (85:01)
• “You don’t need to catch every move. You need to survive long enough to catch the right moves.” — Rashad (102:49)
• “If you’re undisciplined, yes, it’s time to take profit. If you have no plan or playbook for how you’re trading, pack it up and reassess.” — Troy (43:35)
• "In order to have generational wealth, you need to hold for a generation." — Ian (37:35)
• “When you can make people money and add value, they’ll be forever indebted to you.” — Rashad (01:26)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Market Volatility, Trading Discipline: 08:33–10:11, 13:14–13:54
• Seasonality & Monthly Patterns: 15:40–18:08
• War & Oil, Macro-Economic Risks: 18:58–25:09
• Options Trading Process: 31:58–34:30
• Technical Analysis & Buy Signals: 39:39–40:33
• Sector Rotation to Energy: 50:37
• Historical Lessons (2008 vs. Now): 25:22–29:36
• ETF Allocation & Wealth Preservation: 69:22–71:44, 98:20–99:28
• Wealth Gap, Social Impact: 73:17–79:42, 85:01
• Futures/Options Advice for Beginners: 99:39–102:21
• Community Q&A/Investment Scenarios: 104:38–105:11

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Final Thoughts & Calls to Action

• The market is in rare territory—be disciplined, stick to your investing plan, and don't try to 'catch every move.'
• Focus on ETFs and diversified index funds for safety until geopolitical and economic storms pass.
• The best strategy is surviving the storm so you’ll be there to take advantage of the next generational opportunity.
• “If I made you money, put 'yes' in the chat!” (throughout)

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For more educational content and community support, tune in every Monday to Market Mondays—and consider joining EYL University or Stock Club for deeper dives and actionable strategies.

Transcript

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[Jay]

For me, entrepreneurship has always been the way.

[Troy]

Investing is important because it's the only way you are going to be able to get rich and wealthy for your family. We can close the wealth gap by working together.

[Jay]

Market Monday is the biggest investment show ever.

[Troy]

My life has literally changed since watching eyl.

[Rashad]

When you can make people of money and you can add value, they're going to be forever indebted to you.

[Troy]

I promise you, this year, I'm gonna make y' all even more money.

[Rashad]

Ladies and gentlemen, ladies and gentlemen, ladies and gentlemen.

[Troy]

We're back.

[Rashad]

We are here.

[Troy]

Yes, we are here.

[Rashad]

We are here. We are here.

[Troy]

Fresh off the Amalfi coast.

[Rashad]

We are here. Yes, we are here.

[Jay]

What's the deal?

[Troy]

Happy Monday. How y' all feeling?

[Jay]

Good. Good, man. How you feeling?

[Troy]

Good. Just quick public service announcement. Real quick. Anytime that y' all have an earner's trip in Miami. I'm an earner. I'm a hirener. I'll text AP like I forgot it was Sunday. Me and Zayn would have went, but Zayan was on Instagram. My page. He's like, they in Miami? I'm like, he like, why are we not there? I'm like, I have no clue.

[Jay]

You definitely got the invite.

[Rashad]

There was some people asking for you. They had some things that they wanted to hand you personally. Shout out to us. Our South Florida regional group, they put on. It was beautiful. I mean, Miami's such a great place. I mean, sure, any, any reason to be there, but even more so that the earnings were there made it even better. But you will miss my brother don't

[Troy]

worry, I missed out too.

[Rashad]

I see the hat, man. Let's buy her flowers. I love it.

[Troy]

Yeah, my mom birthday in April so I gotta send eight dozen, you know what I mean?

[Rashad]

I thought it was our last, our last show in women's history month. Shout out to all the.

[Troy]

Oh, that too. I love it.

[Rashad]

There we go. There we go. Yeah, there we go.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

Everything good?

[Troy]

Yeah, everything amazing, man. Everything is great. Got a little cold, but I'm happy to be here under the weather but on top of the world, you know, so. God is good. I can't complain. Shoddy, how you feeling? You in the royal purple with the shades on. Fresh off the boat. French Montana, you know what I mean?

[Jay]

It is what it is.

[Troy]

Oops.

[Jay]

It is what it is. But yeah. Shout out to everybody. In Miami we had a dope Eyl University event. We've been doing these events all over the so in ey University it's more than just, you know, classes. It's actual physical community as well. So South Florida was the latest, the latest stop. Miami. Oh man, it was amazing. Shout out to everybody that took that took part in that for sure. So a couple quick updates. Shout out to Alicia Little, the queen of AI. We are going to be wearing, we're going to be doing her business summit online event and that's a three day virtual event. And that's I believe it's on April 3rd starting at 12. So get your tickets to that. That's an online event. And then also shout out to the Buddy White project. Yeah, you want to talk about that?

[Rashad]

Yeah. Hometown heroes is something that you know. And shout out to my boys, honey, they've known us for a long time, you know, 9146 together. So it's a dope event. It's the, you know, it feels like 2026. The flowers are coming from a local standpoint. So we got a celebration on May 1, black tie event. So we will be sharp. That is, that is the standard and we're looking forward to it, man. So definitely pull up on us if you're interested. I'm sure we got some information and flyers about it, but I'm looking forward to that one, man. Shout out to 91 4.

[Jay]

Yeah. Go to the Buddy White Project on Instagram. Mount Vernon. Yeah, shout out to Mount Vernon, man.

[Troy]

Money making. Mount Vernon,

[Jay]

eyl. We back this Thursday, very important episode. We got Pinky Cole.

[Troy]

Amazing.

[Jay]

You know, it's a lot going on as far as a lot of speculation, a lot of rumors and you know, last year she Had a. She had an issue that she went through as far as her company. She had to. But I back the company this year. She got a lot going on as far as the bankruptcy. Very vocal about that. There's been rumors that she lost her home. It's a lot going on. So, you know, whenever there's a lot going on, you got to talk to Eyo. So salute to Pinky man. Real Housewives of Atlanta.

[Rashad]

Yep.

[Jay]

She gonna fight through it all. But if you want to know the real and get a real education because we do go over bankruptcy and why she filed for bankruptcy and we talked about the house and did she actually get evicted? What does that mean? We went through the whole gambit and we got another surprise for you guys in the works with her as well. But tap in. Yeah, tap in this Thursday at 12. And then of course, Blackout. Everybody's favorite show. Blackout. We back at 9 o' clock Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday. Last week's episode got rave reviews.

[Troy]

We did a good job, Bashar. Thanks for the layup. She was, you know, a little up. I got a lot of support from Philly and I was in New York. I was getting stopped left and right.

[Rashad]

I seen you.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

The New York style man.

[Grainger Announcer]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Blackout. So Blackout. We back. We back at it on Blackout.

[Rashad]

Back. But you were with the guys on Joe Button.

[Troy]

Man, what a good time. Shout out to the guy prospects. I even stopped by at the affiliate show. That's not on the network too.

[Rashad]

They didn't argue about where you were sitting, was they?

[Troy]

No. I'm a guest in that house. I'm just happy to be there. Shout out to the guys. Mark, Mona, B dot Ian, Ken. Everybody had a good time.

[Jay]

Affiliate play.

[Troy]

Yeah, for sure. Real quick.

[Jay]

What's your what Anything that you would like to say in.

[Troy]

Yeah, of course. Sniper is intelligence. Thank you for everyone who joined Red Panda Stock Club. If you look in telegram, Sniper is there for your view and pleasure. Four more prices will be out tonight. Our next stock club call is April 26, so mark your calendars and I will have slides out for the members of Stock Club tomorrow giving you my. My investment facts of the week. If I made you money, please put yes in chat and kudos to everybody. I had a chance to sit down with last week Joe Amani Zo. An affiliate show. Appreciate you. And some apologies were given too. Shout out to Yomi for being there with me the entire time.

[Rashad]

Shout out to Yomi who's the affiliate show.

[Troy]

Blackout.

[Jay]

Blackout. Okay.

[Troy]

But the rumors were true. What we thought behind the scenes. It was true.

[Jay]

Okay, okay.

[Troy]

You know I love you guys. I was told to say these things. I was like, oh, okay. Really?

[Jay]

Oh man. Okay. All right. Oh, why do we. What's going on? What's going on?

[Troy]

I gotta see the intro again or.

[Rashad]

No, no, no, no, no. I think he uploaded a slide. It's all good. We're good.

[Troy]

Okay.

[Rashad]

We're good. Yeah.

[Jay]

What is the trade? What's the trading tip of the week?

[Troy]

I was having a great conversation today and I know there's a lot of fear in the market, but just because there's more volatility in the market doesn't mean it's time to take more trades. Like some of you are having arguments with your business partners, your husband's boyfriends, girlfriends, wives, before you're trading. Just because there is a precipitous incline in volatility and information, don't deviate from your 12 trades per year. Like if you're trading futures, if you get 12 good trades, you should hit a thousand to 3,000% return. Trading has considerable risk. Please consult your advisor, consult your broker statements, etc. Right. But some of you are taking one great trade, winning and then saying, oh, let me do this three more times to make up for the misses I had before. And now you're giving all your gains away or even worse, blowing your account. So just because we have more volatility, it does not mean to take more trades. Less is more. I know it's a thing you don't want to hear, but for those you who have taken 30 to 40 trades in the month, did it work for you, in your favor? Even though we having these issues week to week, we've been 30 days into the war. The people who've made the most money are the ones who held their traits for the longest. Less is more. Just because there's more volatility, don't trade more. You can do whatever you want, but if you lose, you deserve to be broke. Back to you.

[Rashad]

You definitely deserve to be broke. It's interesting because it, it fits in that, that, that same realm of over trading. I think especially for us when we talk about long term trading. Yeah, I would say that the best, the best asset is time.

[Troy]

Absolutely.

[Rashad]

If you're trading options, you're buying equities or indexes, ETFs, buy time. Bye, Tom. I know. And I got a few texts about it like man, my, my account is hurt. It's hurt, it's hurt. I'm like, this is week five of, of a war.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Troy]

And you're going out a week and a half or two weeks. If you went out a year, you would be fine.

[Rashad]

So, so buy time, it's important. And then when you start to see your account go in a different direction, right? This is why having that plan before you, you, you enter any position is important. Having that stop loss is important. Understanding, like there's going to be pulled backs, understanding, hey, where am I taking my profits at? All those things are important and they become even more important when there's volatility. But like I said last week, if you can find clarity in this uncertainty, there's going to be some opportunities for you to make money if you have a long term vision, which is why buying time is vitally important. So my, my thing would just be buy time. Buy time. It will always work in your favor from a long term perspective and even from a leap perspective as well.

[Troy]

The, the Sunday market jump has been a relatively new thing for most traders. The move is not always going to present itself. I remember maybe even eight years ago, I always look at natural gas on Sunday evening and you kind of want to force a move. If it's not there, go to the London. If it's not there, go to the American clothes. But some of you are wasting great volatile situations burning through your account, not being disciplined. Like somebody today was like, oh, I went long. Why did I get chopped? I'm like, what news is positive for you to go long?

[Rashad]

It's, it's tricky because I, I understand it and I've had this question as well. When, again when you're watching Sunday night and you start to see the futures market for the Dow, the NASDAQ and S and P, even last night it was like negative. And then you wake up and it's positive and The Dow's up 300 points on news that there might be an end to it. And I feel like we've been recycling the same thing for the past four weeks. Sunday night it's, oh, we're close, we're going to do this. And by the time the market opens, it's a complete reversal. Because at this point, yes, it's the taco effect, right? Like we've heard it, but there was the sustainability of it. Now it's worn off. It's like it's either we're going to escalate or we're going to end. And I'm not sure which one's going to happen.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

It feels more like escalation is where we're headed. But then you'll hear reports Today saying, hey, we're pretty close to a deal. And then, you know, by 9:45 the other side will say, we've never even spoken to them. There is no deal.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

You know, so it's very confusing. And I understand people's appetite. They're like, wait, I don't even know what to do. Sit on the sideline by your time.

[Troy]

And Rashad, real quick, before you go, can I give you guys the indicator that the market is not good? Bill Ackman gets on Twitter and tells you what to buy again, like in 2020. Hey, Fanny and Freddie are a great investment. Whenever Bill Ackman comes out and starts to front run the news and tries to act like Wall Street, Jesus, we may see a turnaround soon, but that's usually not for the public's benefit. Remember when he went on CNBC and almost cried and did the little war

[Rashad]

Saga and made 16, what, 6 billion right after that?

[Troy]

Yes. Be mindful. At every turn we're seeing manipulation of the highest order. Look at your monthly time frame, your weekly allegedly. And if they are not all in alignment, now is not the time to buy. But when Powell is saying, yo, we need to rebalance even the United States debt to gdp, which I've talked about forever, that's a concern. When there's no growing jobs, that's a concern. There isn't a clear signal to buy yet. If you're intraday trading to the upside yet.

[Rashad]

Yeah, I say alleged because this. We. We missed this part. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. Yes, it's very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstance. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with or independently research and verify any information that you find on our show and wish to rely upon whether for the purpose of making an investment decision or otherwise, people continue to do the research, continue to build knowledge, build our community, build the brokerage account. Love is love. Back to our regularly scheduled program.

[Troy]

Taco news is fake. Fake news.

[Rashad]

Taco,

[Jay]

I will say this. We don't have the ticker this week because we have some technical difficulties. This is live. It's a live show.

[Troy]

It's a live show.

[Jay]

So we had some last minute technical difficulties, so we were not able to get the ticker as you guys have become accustomed to. But you know, the show must go on.

[Rashad]

It will go on the show.

[Jay]

The show must go on. So what? Let's talk about the investing fact of the week. What is the Investing fact of the week.

[Troy]

So to wrap up March, March in terms of the S P normally is up 13 times out of 21 years. So it's down 8 out of 21 normally. The first Friday in April is normally up 22 out of 31 years. If we're still in war, I don't think that would be true in March. Even though it used to be a really great month. Post Covet is starting to have a little hint of negativity in it. So March 2020, the Dow declined by 13.7%, the worst since March 30. March 1938, 22 was pretty interesting. And now here in 26. So if you guys are in favor of like seasonality charts and how things do month to. If there's any tumult, you're having to put March on your list of worry months like August and before you used to have have to not factor that in February will be bad and March where you'd normally be good. But if there's any tumult or geopolitical unrest, you now have to mark March as the potential point of concern if there's not a clear and safe geopolitical path in front of us. Because it's not a black swan, but it's like a baby beige swan in front of us. Be mindful going forward. If we're in war scenario or any kind of viral outbreak, the March can be very bloody for you, but a great time to buy. Historically.

[Rashad]

It. Yes, I'm with you and I think and we've spoken about this before in terms of how we view March. Right. Because we know that April traditionally begins the best six months of investing. Historically throughout the S and P, April has been the. One of the best months. I think April and November have been the best months of. Of growth for the S and P. Which means do you buy in April? Right. Most people will buy in the month that it's down and see the gains start to happen. Obviously we saw last year with when the S and P dropped down past this 400 day EMA because of liberation day which was April 8th and we saw the run after that. And so it's interesting when you talk about March, we talk about quad witching which happens in March. Right. The third Friday of the month. You talk about the next month being the best day to trade. It feels like I'm with you with the sediment of like this is might be one of those months how we saw late summer September historically.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

March is starting to feel like this. It definitely from. From. From COVID to now. But where we're headed is very like, okay, we've seen this seasonality play out before. We understand where we're at now. Yes, we've hit correction. Right. We're down 10% on the NASDAQ. S P is like real close. If not, it might have hit it today. Where are we headed?

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

What is causing this? Obviously we can see that the geopolitical situation, oil and food rising, the AI story, the death. So all those things are happening. And so we'll see in the next few weeks if we can end the war or we come to some type of, I don't even want to call it the end or some type of deal point with the, with the war and what happens in April, which traditionally is a good month.

[Jay]

This is what you call spooky hours.

[Troy]

Hours for sure.

[Jay]

This is what you call spooky hours. And we know that the second year of a presidency traditionally has been the worst year of a form of a four year stock stock market cycle. We're gonna have a down year eventually that's without anything. And then you add so many other geopolitical factors that go into play here. This war in Iran is not, it's not just a small thing. It's not just something that you can just get out of. It's. It's a, it's a, it's a big deal and it's very complicated. And now it looks like it's going to escalate. They're going to try to. So they're trying to solve a problem that they created. Straight of homo is being closed. So now they got to strangle their oil supply as a negotiation tactic for them to open up the straight. But the straight wasn't closed before they started bombing them. You're solving a problem that you created that's kind of crazy if you actually think about it. But Trump has been proven to be a pathological liar. So you can't really trust anything that he says. And it's going to be very bad or it's going to be okay. It's either going to be okay or it's going to be very bad. So if this war prolongs and the cost of oil goes up and Iran starts to strike UAE and Saudi Arabia and then it turns into a full fledged royal rumble and then multiple straits can, can start being closed because they talked about the Houthis is about to close this on there on their side or Red Sea.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Now you got 30 of the cargo. 30 of the world's cargo is in danger of being strangled

[Troy]

over arrogance.

[Jay]

This was, this was a disastrous, unnecessary. Because what is the point, what's the point of this war? If anybody, if anybody can put in comment what is the, what is the point of the war

[Troy]

that the El Mho capture. He thought it was Call of Duty. Like you ever play Call of Duty, one of them shooting games and you get on a nicer tear and a campaign and it feels easy. But you're not factoring in back to my bricks point from five years ago. If we don't have to worry about one enemy, it's the Drake Kendrick 20v one all over again. And as a result the s P is down 7% in the first 59 days of 2026, the 14 worst start to a year. All of the max 7 are down. So Apple's negative 8%. Microsoft is down 34. Tesla's bleeding Meta is down 22 videos down. Microsoft has come back down to 2025 levels. When I was doing my charting last night, if the hemorrhaging doesn't stop, they're going to come down to 2021 levels. Arrogant decision to go attack a country that you did well. And that's the other conversation we can't have. Why is he attacking that country at this time in Cuba as well?

[Rashad]

Yeah, I mean he's on record saying that he could take the oil if he wants. Then he says that if they don't open the straight immediately, he's gonna bump. I mean like you just, you just make these blind threats after a certain point. It's like they're calling your bluff and they're ready for you to attack. Like I said, there's only two options. Right. It's like you, you either bow out gracefully in some way or it's going to lead to more escalation. And I don't, I don't know when the way I'm, I. You wake up with the new. You just don't know what's going to happen.

[Jay]

It could potentially get a lot worse because the bad part about it is that the stock market relatively is, is not down

[Rashad]

fully collapsed.

[Jay]

Yeah, yeah, that's, that's, that's bad because that means that there's a lot more for it to go for sure.

[Troy]

For sure. We haven't even hit a huge inflection point. Like if we, this is 30 days. Imagine if there, this could be our Russia and Ukraine war. Yeah.

[Jay]

If there's any good, if there's any good thing about this, there's opportunities in every crisis. So it's not necessarily, I don't think you just wait for a complete market crash. But you're gonna, I mean you said Microsoft is already down over 30% and that's obviously a, a good company. I don't think anybody thinks that Microsoft is gonna go out of business. So you're going to get, you're going to get buying opportunities for sure, long term buying opportunities in solid positions. So you know, you have, you have to be ready as an investor because this is what you wait for is, you know, strong assets to go down pretty dramatically so you can buy it at a low point. So that's one of them. There's a, there's, there's a few others. But that doesn't necessarily mean that we can't see a prolonged situation if this war continues.

[Rashad]

Yeah, it definitely, I mean it's there. But like you said, the other side of it is like when people see those thousand percent, so they see those 600%, this is where they're birthed for sure. Right. This is like, this is the origin story of those type of gains. How? Well we, we've watched things depreciate. We got solid companies, they've hit thresholds that we already set the, we set as our metric and we took advantage of it.

[Jay]

Right.

[Rashad]

And I'm not saying that we took advantage of anything that had to do with the war. But solid company, like you said, every one of the max sevens is down at least dramatically. 17 at the minimum. Microsoft leading the way at 33. These are solid. These companies aren't going anywhere. Right. We know that what we've experienced is week, the beginning of week five of some pullback right from some people who just started investing maybe in 2025. This is the first time they've seen a correction like we watched in 2022. We got down 27, 31 at the NASDAQ at its worst. So there can be more pain. I just don't think that technology is causing it. Right. Like regional banks isn't. There are some factors that are, could be alarming but, but we know what the factor here is and there's no clear answer for it. Which means uncertainty, which brings more volatility,

[Troy]

a lot more chaos.

[Rashad]

Yeah, we watched the Vix go down to 24 last week and then boom, right, we're back at 31. Right. That volatility index is, is, is peaking. Is it? It's just a really, really, really interesting time.

[Jay]

But I will say this before we move on to the next topic because I don't think people Most people have not experienced a full bear market. We had bear market, but it wasn't. 2008 was a bad market. That was a global economic crisis. That's when stocks was down 45%. That's when people started to commit suicide. There were suicides that happened in 2008. We haven't seen anything like that since. I experienced 2008. I came into this business, I came into the business as a financial advisor in 2008 actually like two months before everything fell apart. That's how I started my career. And I was investing people into the stock market then. And they made a lot of money because a couple years after that, you know, you have 45, 50 rate of return. So whenever there's pain, there is upside potential. That happens usually. But if you haven't lived through that type of situation, this is something that last time you, you could just print money. You, you can't just print money and get yourself, get yourself out of it. Eventually you're gonna have to, you're gonna have to, you know, pay the price for bad financial decisions just like anybody else would. So 2008, that was, that was a tough time. That was a tough time for the stock market. Like I said, a lot of companies weren't insolvent. You've seen institutions fail. That's when they started to build. That's when they had the bailouts. And people do commit suicides and recessions. When we talk about people losing their house, a lot of people lost their house. MG the mortgage guy can speak about that. But you're going to see some foreclosures because it's a trickle down effect. You're going to see foreclosures on the real estate market and you're going to see people getting liquidated out of short positions and, and trades in the stock market and you're going to see 401ks go down. But hopefully it doesn't have to get to that point. Hopefully Trump will do the right thing and we can, we can reverse course

[Rashad]

but do the right thing.

[Troy]

That's not been the historical take.

[Rashad]

Yeah, the.

[Jay]

But if we do, I don't know what's the right thing to just leave, reverse course, abandon.

[Troy]

If we have a shelakin in the midterms, I think he may have a change of heart. And that's the interesting part about the market right now with all this tumult and fallout. The VIX is currently at 2860. The Vix and this kind of scenario normally would be at 35 or 40, which tells you all the chaos has not left yet. Like you said, like investors like certainty. And with the war being there, it's not there. But also we're going into like a midterm election cycle and we saw this again in 22. And maybe we can bring the chart up now and I can talk about this now, but hopefully the right thing is done. But like you said, given the leadership that's there, I. It's too much ego and hubris in the administration to course correct and even want to say the other, the other, other chart about the election cycles. There we go. If we can zoom in a little bit for the audience. So this is the S P midterm election year. Declining recoveries. So on average, in a midterm year, the Average drawdown is 15.6%. We're at 9 and some change. But this the port to look at, look at the right side a year out. If we go to 2010 when it was negative 15, the next year is up 33, 2014 is up 10, 2018 is up 39, 2022 is up 23%. If you take a long historical view of the market and realize, man, if I just focus on the next 10 years at a time like that's when, even at the top of the year, when people ask me, hey, what's the stock of the year? Focus on the stock of the decade. That matters way more. If you zoom out and look and see, on average the median return from the drop of the midterm election is 39.8%. If I made you money, please put yes in chat. Hold for the long term. And if you're taking a 10 year view, you're good. But if you're trying to trade and make all of your money over a two week cycle, you may run into some issues, but if you hold them for a year out, you'll be good. Love you guys.

[Rashad]

Yeah, I love you daily.

[Jay]

That's a fact. That's a fact. You know, the good thing about when I started 2008 is that a lot of the people that was put into the stock market had never invested. So they didn't really have the psychological trauma of losing money because they never invested, never went through it.

[Troy]

Yep.

[Jay]

But they put money in and they was just, it was just fortunate that they, they invested in the bottom and they, and they experienced tremendous gains ever since, for the most part if they stayed in their positions. But let's talk about some people that are not experiencing tremendous gains right now. Options traders. This is spooky hours. Yeah, this is Spooky hours.

[Rashad]

So options traders, well, depends on it

[Troy]

depends on how they're go ahead.

[Rashad]

Yeah, yeah, it depends on what type you are, right? If you're doing day trading, if you're doing swing trades, it can because I mean it's volatile, right? And you can't control volatility and you can't control the bid in the ass. All you can do is buy yourself time, which I think again, it's always been the most important strategy for me and it's the reason why I'm saying this is where thousand percent returns are birthed. Because we've done it over 10 to 15 times, right? Like you've seen it enough that like this is how it's birthed. And so it's always about the plan, like what is the strategy, right? So there's a couple of questions you should ask yourself, right? Write these down. If you're writing things down right, number one, has the equity fallen in price? Right. Like if it's a good company, has it fallen in price? Right. The next thing is, if you're doing trading options, has the bid in the ass, has that depreciated in price? Because we know the bid in the ass is where money is gained and lost right off the bat, right? If somebody's asking you for the sticker price and you're buying it at the sticker price, you're going to lose money right away. So figure out where you're going to say, this is where I'm putting it at. This is my bid, take it or leave it and be disciplined with it. Right? Put it to the end of day. If it gets filled, great. If it doesn't get filled, great. You come back another day, you didn't lose anything, right? So has the stock price falling or the ETF or index price fallen? Has the bid in the ass price fallen for whatever you're looking at, right? Especially in options. The next thing is what is your depreciation threshold, right? If it's an etf, if it's an index, if it's a stock, what number are you looking for that to fall to? Is it 20 to 30%?

[Troy]

Yeah. 25%.

[Rashad]

Right, I know, Ian, you said that yours was 30 to 40%. Well, guess what? A lot of the companies that you looked at and were like, man, this thing has run too far the all time high, I don't want to invest in that. Which is great. You were disciplined, you didn't do anything. Well, some of them now falling 20 to 30%. We just talked about Microsoft falling to 34%. Right. So we got the depreciating asset itself. The next piece is. Has the option contract depreciated. What's the threshold there? So if the stock itself is falling 30, what do you think has happened to the option contract price? That's falling too. So what's the threshold there? Is it 30 to 40? Is it 40 to 50? I'm looking at contracts now that are down 50 to 60, some of them 70%. Solid companies. Solid companies. Right. Micron fell 30. The stock. What do you think has happened to those contracts? Those are falling down. So what do we do?

[Troy]

All right.

[Rashad]

Let's find where they've depreciated and met that threshold. Check. Met that threshold Check. Is it a solid company check? Do I understand? Understand the story? Check. Can I buy myself time? Right. Because again, we're only in week five. What is this going to look like in 2028? What is it going to look like in.

[Troy]

Right, right.

[Rashad]

What will we see? Will it. You think it'll still be trading in the three hundreds? I told you, I believe it's going to be a 400 company. If it hits 500, I wouldn't be surprised. Right. Those are the important steps. Now, in times like this, when we starting to see corrections, we're not going for individual stocks anymore. I told you when we had Liberation Day last year, I said, look, let's go what, what we know.

[Troy]

Run to safety.

[Rashad]

Run to safety. Find indexes, find ETFs.

[Troy]

Yep.

[Rashad]

So what do we do? Okay, well, we still believe in tech. We still believe in a semiconductor story. SSMH is the ETF. Now, if you look at how it's performed this year, it's down 10. Okay, perfect. Nvidia leads it. TSM is in there. We know how important those are going to be. Micron is number three in there. Broadcom is in there as well. Solid companies, all in the top 20 companies in market cap. We like that as an ETF. There's an opportunity there. Why do we do ETFs? Because the depreciation isn't as great as if we did an individual stock. Micron pulled down 30. I just told you that. SMH has pulled down 10. Right. There's a 20 difference in there. So it doesn't feel as severe as it does if you invested in the individual one. Well, what other ETFs are moving? We talked about this maybe a year ago. Xlu. Let's look at our utilities.

[Troy]

Yeah, yeah.

[Rashad]

Well, I was going there, you know, let's look at our energy utility energy ETF. So XLE, XLU. These ETFs obviously have the solid, the most solid companies. And why do we know? Because we can see what's inside the S, the, the allocation and how they're moving. Right. The percentage of which companies are leading that changes when we see times of uncertainty and volatility run to safety. Right. So we get ETFs, we get indexes. And then we just waited out. We waited out. We start to see trend lines move, we start to see EMAs move. Okay. We start to see some candles turn green on a daily. We have something. Once that trend line starts to move forward. Right. And we can figure out where we're going with this conflict. I think we're going to be in for a positive year.

[Troy]

And for everyone in November, December, January. Who was asking, when are we going to get a crash? We're here now. Are you taking advantage of the thing that you asked and pray for? Now is not the time to be afraid. I don't want you to be reckless. But when the market was running up like crazy, everyone's like, there's no buy in, there's no entry point. They're hella buy ins on some of the best companies in the world and some shitty ones as well. Stay away from those. But if you are buying great companies at these prices, you'll be fine in a year. Zoom out to a year and just look historically, especially Rashad, as you illustrated, these midterms are always tough. I think this year would be one of the rougher years as well. But I don't see a year, year to date going back to 1950 in my notes where there was not a positive return a year later. What are you afraid of? Follow the data.

[Rashad]

Yeah, and, and just for like the, the people who are learning technicals, I think it's important, like having those EMAs is important. Putting your biology bands is important. So you can see, you can almost see where the, the, the trend line is going to go.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

Like we watched some of these things hit that 200. Look, it ran through it. It didn't have support there. It fell down. All right, well where's the next EMA? If we had it at 72, where's 100? If it falls below 100, what's, where's the 200?

[Troy]

Okay, what's 200 words?

[Rashad]

The 400, where's the 400?

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

And so we can kind of start seeing where it's going to fall. If you even pull up a chart of the S P. And you know, I Think you're going to talk about it, but you can see a trend line happening here. So when we're saying like, hey, there's still some more room to go on the negative side here, great. But look at the returns after we hit that 400 or look at the returns after we hit that 200. That's what you got to be keen on and not be so near sighted when you're investing. Right. Like we get into like these negative ideas when we see a pullback. Super near side. Oh my gosh, my account, my account. Come back in six months, come back in a year and let's see if we have the same conversation.

[Troy]

Everyone is. All the great investors are salivating. If we can pull up the chart really quick that I sent in and this is really important to keep your eyes on. I talked about crude last week and I want to come back to it really quick for a different level and expectation. The other chart I got you.

[Rashad]

Thank you.

[Troy]

So the level up there, if you look. So currently oil is at 105.89. That level in the green above is at 123.86. When I kept saying this reminds me a lot of 2022. I'm not just saying it and to be entertaining or sensational and then all of a sudden oil ticks up. That's the level I'm looking at to see. Okay, if we go there and then Vix goes to 35, the stock market is going to buy out, but it's going to be a generational buy. Like in order to have generational wealth you need to hold for a generation. But when you have these generational buying opportunities, you can't let them pass you by. So that 2022 level was at 123 86. I hope we don't breach that level but it is our job as investors for when anything catastrophic ever happens, to be prepared to take action and know what key levers there are in the economy to know when to. That 12386 level is a clear indication of when to buy. It may take a little bit longer than 2022 days of turnaround or April of last year to turn around. But I guarantee if you zoom out a year or in two years, you're going to look back at this like how you did April of last year or 2022 when it was a historical buying opportunity. So these are some of the levels that I'm looking at to get a, an idea of where to be able to buy stocks. So you can use the VIX you can use the crude. For my options traders, you should look at vvix. That will tell you the volatility in the options market as well. So you can go look. VVX currently is at 127.84. And 2022, it got to 192.49. We're not close to that level yet. But when we are hitting these all time high or decade inflection points, the market is going to fall apart. Apart. But that's a really great buying opportunity for you.

[Rashad]

Yeah, that. And that was crude, that chart just now.

[Troy]

Yeah, yeah, that was croup.

[Rashad]

Yeah. I'm gonna give them the homework assignment. I know. Remember you used to give out the homework assignments.

[Troy]

Yep.

[Rashad]

All right, so here's the homework assignment.

[Troy]

Listen the first time.

[Rashad]

Listen to the first. Listen the first time. Right? But sure, if we, if we look at where the 400 EMA is on the daily for, for the, the S P. Right. Like I said, 62, 18.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

We're not there yet. But you can see a scenario where we get there. Right. We're not there. But the last time it touched the 400 day was on April 8, right around Liberation day. Look at the appreciation gain from April 8 till now. The prior time before that it hit his 400 day was October 26, 2023. Look at the, the gain from October 26, 2023 till April 1. Right before alliteration day. Right. So when we're talking about generational opportunities, when we start seeing major indexes hit

[Troy]

that 400 day, that is a glaring buy signal.

[Rashad]

Hello.

[Jay]

So.

[Troy]

Hello.

[Jay]

So let's, let's go talk about this back to options if we can. Because people have questions. So the first question is, is this time to, to take profit on things that, on. If you're up on an option and you know, obviously things can move very quickly in that world. So is it time to start taking profit? Lock in profit.

[Rashad]

I think you lock in profit, you have that story before you even invest.

[Jay]

Right.

[Rashad]

But right now, today, why it's, it's individual case, right?

[Jay]

So for general, general purposes, if people are, if people are up on the options, because you're either up or you down, right? So I'm gonna ask the question for people that are down next over people that are up. People that are up, right? And they might have already taken some profit. They might have already did the 100 Strat. They already did that. They have four contracts. They doubled their money. They already took out two contracts there. They have two contracts left. But they're still up, you know, over 100%. Is it time to do another one to lock in profit because of the insert uncertainty in the market? At least, at least you've locked in some level of victory. You can sit on the cash and try to figure this thing out until we get some guidance.

[Rashad]

Couple of things. Number one is how much time do they have inside those contracts? Second thing is you, you lock in your profit before you invest. Right? And what, what I mean is like, everybody's not trying to get 100%. Some people might be trying to get 20%, and that's great. Did you get the 20%? All right, you took out your profit. You may have left the rest a few contracts in there to. To appreciate. Well, what's the strategy on the backside?

[Troy]

Right?

[Rashad]

Like get. We're not at 100% anymore, but now we're pulling down. So what's the threshold now? Is it 50%? Right. So I could.

[Jay]

Right.

[Rashad]

So we don't get back to zero. Right. So you start taking profits when you start to see depreciation now when you go negative. Right. So some people are like, wait, I'm down 11%. I'm down 12%. I'm down 20%. I'm down 30%. Well, that's why we have our stop loss, right? So before we enter the trade, we have our stop loss, whether that's 30 or 40%. Some people don't put their stop loss right. Like I am guilty of that. Like, I didn't always put my stop loss because I was putting time on these contracts. Like everybody. EYL, I've been huge on Uber. That contract was down 40, 50. That contract is out to December of 2028. I'm not thinking about it the same way that I would if I was having a contract that was expiring in April of this year.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

And so that time factor, all that has already been predetermined.

[Troy]

All right?

[Rashad]

I'm putting time on it. I'm staying close to or at the money. More recently, I've been buying in the money because of the volatility. So all those strategies are implemented before you even make the trade. And so when you, when now when you start to see depreciation, you start to see some pullback. Did I hit my profit margin that I wanted to to take money out at yes or no as we go down. What is it? Is it 75? Is it 50? Is it 20?

[Troy]

I'm gonna get answer. You want to shot pause.

[Jay]

Okay. Okay.

[Troy]

If you are undisciplined, yes, it's time to take profit. If you just hit market and got in anywhere because you was told the market is going to go up no matter what, and you have no, no plan or playbook for how you're trading, you have time to pack it up, take your profit. Now you need to reassess completely. But we, we are. Troy's talking to a very disciplined. And so am I, a very disciplined investors. But for those of you who just scrounged up some money, didn't care, you just lighting up at night and just got you like five contracts, my brother, it's time to be disciplined. And this market is going to be tougher than ever until this war is over. Now it's not play time when it comes to trading.

[Rashad]

Yeah. And, and the reason why we started with that as a tip, as is buying the time, is because if this is your first time investing, you're not coming back. When you see something like this.

[Troy]

Absolutely.

[Rashad]

Like if you've invested for the first time in the past two months, it feels so discouraging because it's like, wait, hold on. This is the first time I'm doing this. I can't recover from this. How do I come back from this? Yeah, that's why I have in those thresholds before you ever start have those thresholds because you might see, we'll use Micron, for example, Right. You might see Micron go up to 460 now. It's pulled down to 3:20 today. But somebody sitting in that contract saying, I, well, I didn't invest yet. This might be a good time for me. Right. Or I took some profit. I'm gonna, as it's pulling back, I'm gonna wait to get back into. I might get a call out even further like I did that. I'm like, wait, I don't have any in December 28, let's see if it hits. If it depreciates even more like it was 40 today. I was on a plane, I didn't get to see it. Probably those same contracts are probably down 50. I'm looking to get out into 20, 28. I'm two years out. All right.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

Is this still the company I believe in? Is the story change?

[Troy]

No.

[Rashad]

Right. I don't care if SK Hynix becomes publicly traded here in the United States. I, I understand the story. Even with Google, even with Google making the announcement about Google Quant and how that might change memory. Well, if you look at the history of Google, a lot of their products are used for internal employees. Yeah.

[Troy]

It's not for the end consumer or most of the.

[Rashad]

And it's not enterprise facing, hey, we're making these products so you can buy them. It's hey, we're using them so we can get ahead and stay ahead so the story doesn't change. The companies haven't changed. The opportunities and the prices and points that we get them, that will change but we got to make sure we're on the right side of it.

[Jay]

So what's the recommended stop loss?

[Rashad]

I would say safety is probably anywhere between 20 to 30%, 25%.

[Troy]

You.

[Rashad]

They've watched me do further. What companies am I going further on Nvidia.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

Will I go 50? Of course I'm gonna go 50 on Nvidia Micron, I've done 50 and they've seen it before where I've gone 50. If it's a company, I understand the story and I clearly see it. Yeah, I, I said a little further

[Troy]

out and this ain't the time for finesse. Two times trading, no stop loss. No, we're not in that market like chill. If it's not an excellent company for my futures traders because some of you are taking your, your stops off and you're trying to ride it through the London through American session. But things can change so fast. Make sure that you have your trades in place and for my futures traders, record your trades because if you get stopped out, you can't tell them, hey, my stop was at this level and you filled me here. You're going to have to send in evidence so that they can verify it and on top of that, credit it back to your account because even the slippage in your stop loss may be deeper than you, you want it to be because of the volatility. Be mindful.

[Rashad]

Yeah. It's important. And that's why I said nobody celebrates on the negative side. It's like, oh my gosh, the sky's falling.

[Troy]

Yep.

[Rashad]

Well, the same Micron call That was down 52% when I posted that it was up 2000%. Everybody cheers.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

Why? Right. It's because it was disciplined. Division was there, we understood the story. We're there a lot of people and shout out to everybody that that made gains on that. It's because of the discipline. It's because we bought time for that to have a reversal.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

We can't predict volatility, but what we can do is buy time to combat

[Troy]

it really quick to do an evaluation assessment. On Microsoft, the stock price is 350 three years ago. The revenue was 211 net income was 72. Now the, the revenue is 305. Net income is 115 billion, but it's at the same price that it was three years ago. So if you're asking me if the stock is undervalued once again, right now the net income is at 115 billion three years ago. Is that 72 is at the same price from three years ago. Is that undervalued? Yes, absolutely. I know some of you are saying that Microsoft is a failing business. I wouldn't go that far. Do they have some adjustments to make? But it's kind of hard to call a company that's netting $115 billion a failing company. There will be no easy wins in the market until this war is over. That's why I say it's a baby black swan, because it was unforeseen. And when you have a person or team that doesn't give you an easy resolution of how to get out of this war, people are going to keep their money on the sidelines until there's a sign of safety.

[Rashad]

Somebody said the stop loss is 98.

[Troy]

Well, if you had fart coin and Melania coin, you're my boy. I'm sorry.

[Jay]

Hit the like button and share. Shout out to my niece. Blessing on the check in.

[Troy]

Blessings.

[Rashad]

What a blessing.

[Troy]

And love.

[Jay]

That's a fact. Oil is over a hundred.

[Rashad]

Yes it is. See that 105 right now. Oh boy.

[Jay]

Talk about it.

[Troy]

It's been a interesting season. I'm keeping my eyes on it. Do I think we will eventually pull back? Yes. But until there is a ceasefire or an agreement to leave the space, there isn't a reason for war for oil to come down and other parts I don't think I've touched on enough. And that's my fault. There's a. This is the real sector rotation when we're in recession. Remember in 2008, so Rashad, he was driving through New York gas was probably $4 and 15 cent because I remembered in Indiana at the time it was probably 389. And that was almost like hell on earth. The rotation for investors that really matters is the tech to energy rotation. It's not the 6040 bond. So normally when all hell is breaking loose and we are filling it in our Pockets, in our 401ks and our pensions, the oil market has taken off to the upside. Like Exxon has been a stock pick and stock club forever. But you've talked endlessly about the number of energy companies that have went off.

[Rashad]

Right.

[Troy]

They kind of masked it as A data center move, but it was a hedge for what was to come. If you look at all the shares that have been sold off in the tech side for the last five or six months, they were just saying, oh, we're building data centers, so now we're invested in energy. No, they was investing in energy as the hedge to what's to happen. So if you are looking for a rotation move for sure in a recession, look to invest in energy, in oil and then you'll have a retreat once the market settles out, then you can go back heavy into tech. But the other rotations and the consumer staples and yada yada, they don't matter as much. It's really the battle of tech versus energy always.

[Rashad]

Yeah. And they, they don't move as much. The consumer staples.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

I think that's what we're seeing right here. It's very clear when you, when you talk about the Mag 7 and just think about it, we talked about Nvidia in terms of how it's equipped, it's equally weighted on the S P like the companies. And there was about 7% of the S P. Yeah. Right. So imagine what the Mag 7 means to the S P. To have all those nearly at 20 negative. And we're just at correction for the S P. Yep.

[Troy]

It's interesting, interesting. And there's other companies that have are down 40, 50%. But if you look, the XLE's at plus 41, but financials are negative 12. That's really interesting, that gap. But if you go back to 2008, in the 80s and the 70s as well, you'll always see that these oil companies have went up during times of recession. And that's why, if you're looking for certain levers, we can't have oil stay above a certain level for a long period of time because it's gonna affect us all. So, Rashad, what can you do? All you can do is pray that they decide to come to an end and someone decides to not have an ego. But my thing is we're going to have a rotation of endless wars. Palantir, who you thought would have probably benefited from this, they're down 34%. That's fascinating to see that even they are getting beat up by a sector that potentially would benefit them.

[Jay]

So, yeah, and I think you got to prepare yourself. You know, this year at Invest Fest, we're going to make a strong emphasis of like there's going to be a panel on people that work a 9 to 5 and entrepreneurs at the same time. And how to transition from an entrepreneur to a 9 to 5 while still that's important. Thinking about potentially doing something on trades, that's important.

[Troy]

That's a good one.

[Jay]

You know, like it's, it's like it's, it's time. Like I think it's really, really, really a pivotal moment in time right now. And a lot of decisions have to be made as far as like where you're, where you're going with your life. Because this only thing that this war did is just accelerate. We could talk about the wealth gap, but only thing, only thing that these, that these geopolitical events do is just separate and further make the wealth gap, the racial wealth gap, but just the wealth gap in general between the ultra rich and everybody else who's struggling. And that's what we're seeing with this war. Like you know, when gas prices, these recessions only, only hurt poor people. Yeah, recessions hurt poor people because rich people, they have opportunities to invest in during recessions, they have opportunities to start new businesses. The poor people that get hurt. So that's why, like I said this year for Invest Fest, that's a major point of emphasis is really catering to that audience of people that's really trying to just figure it out before it's too late.

[Troy]

And if you think it's only middle class and poor people that are suffering, it's not. The values of portfolios are changing daily. Even if you look at OpenAI, OpenAI has lost 25 of their market share in the last year. No one's talking about like the battle of OpenAI being the new Apple maybe and Anthropic being the Microsoft. There's a budding war there as well. They shut down Sora after 180 days. Like even the greatest companies on earth, whether they're pre IPO or post ipo, they're making cuts to staff at an aggressive level because they know what happened. And it takes me back to what Magic kept saying. You only have a couple years. Like he emphasized that so much. I go back to Jack. Like it was a few people who kept saying, yo, you got your affairs in order? Buckle up. This next ride gonna be, was gonna be a tough one. These are people who have enough money to last them 96 years. There were LeBron's still playing. That scares me. I'm not gonna lie. Bronnie and Bron being on the court, I'm like, that is the magical moment. Same thing. Okay? Now Jay got the concert. Kanye announced he got a concert the same time as Jay. Kanye Money stretched pretty far. These are recession indicators. And even when we're getting 600, 700, a thousand per cent return in the market, I told you it was because it's to offset the losses that are going to happen in 2027 now you're going to have to average them out for three or four years. Troy and Rashad going all around. They got to interview.

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[Rashad]

I sold my car in Carvana last night.

[Grainger Announcer]

Well, that's cool.

[Troy]

No, you don't understand. It went perfectly. Real offer down to the penny. They're picking it up tomorrow. Nothing went wrong.

[Grainger Announcer]

So what's the problem?

[Troy]

That is the problem. Nothing in my life goes to smoothing. I'm waiting for the catch.

[Grainger Announcer]

Maybe there's no catch.

[Troy]

That's exactly what a catch would want me to think. Wow.

[Grainger Announcer]

You need to relax.

[Troy]

I need to knock on wood. Do we have wood? Is this table wood?

[Grainger Announcer]

I think it's laminate.

[Troy]

Okay. Yeah, that's good. That's close enough.

[Grainger Announcer]

Car selling without a catch. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pick up fees. May apply with Angie.

[Troy]

They're sitting down with Mayor Greenberg. They didn't want the poppy steak earner.

[Rashad]

Me?

[Troy]

I went on seven interviews last week. It is go time. I'm sending out thank yous and apologies. My brother. Can we make up? Now's not the time for war. When we in war.

[Rashad]

No, no, no, no.

[Troy]

I need all them votes come next,

[Rashad]

so lock in the opening eye. Thing is, I'm glad you brought that up, that. I mean, not only are they raising more money, but I think we've. And this is an interesting cycle. I think this is the cycle that we're in right now. AI, specifically in tech, we saw the sensational stage, right. Like, oh, this is the next, next technology that's going to lead us. This is going to be great. Who are the companies that are going to lead it? And then we saw those companies and it's very clear, I think those companies will still be the prevalent leaders in it. But I think with, I guess the cycle now is more of phase two. So like if we were in the first two innings, like everybody was saying, I feel like now we're getting into the third or fourth inning where now it's efficiency.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

And it's monetization. And so when you see Sora get cut. Okay, we're not monetizing off this enough. I don't even, even if we had the billion dollars from Disney, like, I don't. They're looking at it like, I'm not sure this is going to be something that's going to be able to, to bring back an ROI for us.

[Troy]

Finally.

[Rashad]

It's costing us to do it.

[Troy]

It cost us too much energy.

[Rashad]

Look, let's stop. It's costing us the GPUs to do it. Let's just stop it now. So it was kind of surprising. And then you look at it and you say to yourself, what are they really doing? Well, they're really saying we need to figure out because everyone is doing it. Right. We talked about Meta, talking about Microsoft. How can we monetize as fast as possible? Right. And how can we be more efficient? So the efficiency comes at the cost of people getting laid off. We saw Meta announce more layoffs, Amazon more layoffs. How can we become more efficient? How can we monetize on this spend? So when you talk capex, Right. You better start talking. How are we going to make money when we spend?

[Troy]

Absolutely. Now's not the time just to be a reckless spender and just running up a $9 billion bill. And also, and even with this, the private credit default thing, which hit an all time high of 9.2%, they're allowed to not have those losses on their balance sheet. Is sitting on the balance sheet of the banks. If I did that, Rashad, and they interviewed you about it, you'll be like, yo bro, I love you. But so that good run. So in a traditional sense, that write this in chat, that would be called a Ponzi scheme. I can't have a 500 million dollar loss and then offload it to MG's balance sheet.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Troy]

And tell you outstanding quarter, 32% growth year over year. What about the 500 million dollar debt that you have? We have a reimagining of what reporting looks like.

[Rashad]

The reimagining? Yeah, I think that's why it's important. And, and when you talk about doing the research and really understanding these companies, look at the companies that are saying that they're spending and where they're getting a capital 2 from because some of them are borrowing and some are saying

[Troy]

hey we're going to get our own profit.

[Rashad]

We juices, we generate so much, so

[Troy]

much money we need to bar. That's my blueprint. I love that. Okay. I'm gonna use my own profit and reinvest.

[Rashad]

Brilliant. Right? Like the companies that do that, I mean obviously the metas of the world. Yeah those companies are using profit. Right. When we talk about having high profit margin that's why this comes into it. Right. When we talk about operating cash flow when you have a hundred billion, that's why this comes into Play. So the CapEx is a little different open AI obviously and this is why this is the next phase. What is the monetization so we can have the revenue. They got killed for trying to do the ads. They said look let's be more efficient. We're not going to do. So it's called. They're gonna have to figure this out very soon.

[Troy]

Yeah. In order to kill off. Well in order to have the next phase you have to kill off something. Speaking of which, Oracle's five year credit default swaps are up to 191 basis point the highest level since 2008. You need one of these giants to die. I've never in my life heard Trude futures and credit default swaps talked about this much since 2008.

[Rashad]

It's a lot. Do you, does Oracle worry you?

[Troy]

To me it was two signs that the show was over. Brad Gerstner when he asked Sam about how his plan to get the money back one damn. Oh yeah. And then Oracle was number two. When people start saying Oracle was going to get this great return and privately Larry's got the return but the company right in shambles for those you don't know the company hit a higher 345.72 is currently at 138 an absolute free fall. There are more people trading the downfall of the stock that are willing to buy it. That use that reminds me of black or research emotion that owned BlackBerry this reminds me a lot of @t back in the, in the day before they got Bought out. This reminds me a lot of that Bill Ackman on CNBC Herbalife fight that when you have credit default swaps this high on a company this big, it's never good. It is never good.

[Rashad]

Yeah, I, it's just like an interesting story with them because outside of the OpenAI piece,

[Troy]

it was uninvestable.

[Rashad]

Right. Well they started to switch it.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

The cloud business is still making money so there is revenue that's being brought into Oracle. But the capex spend and the commitment of potential further capex spend with OpenAI has led to those credit default swaps being so high. But they were generating revenue and, and they are seeing an increase in the cloud service. It's just, it's, it's interesting time for them.

[Troy]

For sure.

[Jay]

For sure. All right, next top we'll get your tickets to invest fest invest.com and I will say this. If this is any indicator, the whole. The host hotel is sold out for the weekend.

[Troy]

Really?

[Jay]

Yeah. If that, if that's any indicator, that's telling to let you guys know. It's a recession indicator. As far as you gotta, you know, you gotta really, really, really get serious about your finances. So the, the host hotel is sold out. So please don't wait. Please, please, please don't wait. S&P 500. How low will it go?

[Troy]

It. Well, it really depends on the time and put yes in chat. If I told you the Microsoft price where we could, could go, I think if we come to a resolution in the war, I think we could see a bottom around maybe 63, 24 if we don't see a resolution in the war and I want to be responsible with my voice because our platform is too important to alarm everyone out there. I do think we can see a place where we slide back into the 5900 level like 59, 45. So for me a great exercise acts as a world class investor. If the Iran conflict continues for 225 days, what is the estimated price that the S P500 will go to? Because the decay. So you have time decay and options market and the futures market. Right. The part that people don't factor in when you have like these beige swans is how much are they drawing down the market each day. If we're seeing a 1 to 2% drop each day and there's no buying signals or no positive news. Think about it. As much as Jensen talked to gtc, he made press rounds, it didn't move the stock. So I'm not saying it to be an alarmist but from an investment standpoint, you have to know what those low to boat levels are. I pray that we don't go there. So if the war lasts for 200 days, I do see a level where we can probably hit 59, 60, 59, 40 somewhere in that area. And for that reason, if the S P stays that low, crude at that point should be at 1:31 or 130.

[Rashad]

I was going to say 100 plus.

[Troy]

Yeah, yeah. And then at that point the vic should be at 3418. If we're at all of those. Like if, if crude is there and Vix is at 3418, the S P has no reason to go up. But once again it is a generational buying opportunity. Even though there's a lot of blood in the street as a, as an investor, this the playoffs, I love it. I feel like the kid who hit the shot on Duke was like, I'm just waiting for the right opportunities. But you have to be a sniper. You can't throw all your capital to everything. Now you have to lean back more. Like you said on the indexes and the ETFs. But if this war does is not resolved anytime soon. But we can get to the 5009 hundreds.

[Rashad]

59, that's, that's 30. No 300 basis points below the 400

[Troy]

day if we only if we stay in war. Now if he resolves the conflict and he says I'm sorry, fake news, bad idea. But I don't know if his ego will let him say that.

[Rashad]

Yeah, I don't think so. I mean that, that's on the low end. Do we. I mean we have price targets for, for the S P for the end of the year. Is the 7000 range still something that is feasible at this point?

[Troy]

It depends on if they get this AI circular investment thing wrapped up and how quickly they in the war. Let's just talk like it's you and I. Yeah, yeah. The longer we stay in this war, the greatest pro greater probability we have a recession. I don't know if he cares about anybody other than his immediate family. Maybe he doesn't give a. And he's like let me get all the money I can while I'm here because I know after this no one's gonna want to do business with me. If he cares about the party, he's going to have to find a way to get them out of recession. Like I can't go into New York and cause so much chaos. You getting a call about me? Right? But he's damn near the financial Unabomber by having all of these wars he's being talked into. So it's really dependent upon the war. And my second concern after that, after the war is over, will the cracks begin to show in our financial system, particularly around AI? How do you think Sam Altman went from being a genius tech darling to now? He kind of got pushed out the cool kids table. And now you want to lift up anthropic and I'll follow. You keep asking me about vcx. Not yet. I keep telling you anything that's new, wait 90 days. I know they promise you exposure to Anthropic, which you could have got through Amazon, I get it. But it went from 575 now to 111. It's too new. But think about this. A venture fund went publicly traded with the best startups in the country and it went from 575 to 111. That's not solely because the lockup period. Yeah, that shit's scary. But stay disciplined and you deserve to be rich. You deserve to be wealthy. Just listen the first time. And I got you back to you trash.

[Jay]

How would you invest $50,000 currently? Because somebody had a question earlier about a hundred thousand. But if you had $50,000 today, why would you invest?

[Troy]

I would go incredibly conservative. I would do, of course two indexes. I would do 50 and 50, I mean 25 and 25 into those and then after that. Like hypothetically, if I can get Microsoft ads for the tech component. And this is like your last hundred, right? Like if, if Microsoft goes to like 323 85, I would be elated to buy some there. But in times of, and I've never said this before, in times of crisis, I wouldn't be mad if you went all four TFs.

[Rashad]

Yeah, that was gonna be my answer.

[Troy]

I would not be mad. I would do one healthcare related one energy related VO and vti. I think VHT is Vanguard's health related ETF and then energy one together until the tomorrow. Does this mean change to index? No, no. But if this is your last hundred and the market that we're in, I would be incredibly safe until the war is over. Put it in chat. Until the war is over, I have to be ultra conservative. Oh my God. He changed the formula. I knew it. I knew it was a ruse this whole time. No, that.

[Rashad]

That was the exact answer I had. It was like 12, 5, 12512 5, 4 ETFs.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

Still believe in the semiconductors. So SMH is one of them alternative. The second one could be technology specific. It could be XLK, it could be QQQ. I think you can't go wrong there. Overall index, right. Vti. And then the fourth one, based on what we're looking at in terms of a glaring need, I think energy is obviously the, the one.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

Like none of this works without energy. Right. So and you can. I would. You know what, I'll give two there. I'll give xlu.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

Because the utilities are important. So we'll see a lot of the, the companies inside of the XOU ETF in terms of energy are in there as well. So I'll have exposure to either or. I don't think you go wrong. So that's five. So if you got a five legged table, good luck. But those, those are solid ones. When things are uncertain, go conservative. Grab your ETFs, just chill.

[Troy]

Speaking of being conservative. Finance. Yeah. By Time Financial conspirator. I love you my brother, from bottom of my heart. But 50 microstrategy, 50 bitcoin. The micro strategy equation we meant to change just, just a little bit.

[Rashad]

I love you.

[Troy]

Shout out to Michael Saylor. I keep saying he gave a sign. He gave a sign. He had a picture of him with a buoy and a Titanic in the back made AI. He gave you a heads up. So shout out to my guy. Conspiracy. A loyal follower of Michael Sailor and a good analysis.

[Jay]

So yeah, Michael Saylor, he put the, the laser glasses up. They said that's what they said. That's a, a bitcoin drop indicator. So let's talk about the wealth gap. The top, top 10% of Americans own 70% of the wealth. Currently bottom 50% own 2 to 3% of the wealth. And we know that white households have a 74% home ownership rate when Black households have a 45% home ownership rate. We know that the average white net worth is around $100,000 or so. Blacks is like 14,000. So there's a lot of disparity. Let's say there's a lot of disparity. Is it going to get worse?

[Troy]

I'll go to you guys first because I have a gloomy take about this. Now I want to bring down the energy of the show. So I'll let you go first. You hear it in my voice already

[Rashad]

gonna take it.

[Jay]

What's. What is it gonna get worse?

[Rashad]

Yeah. So do you think it's gonna get worse?

[Jay]

Yeah, it's gonna get worse. It's gonna get worse for everybody, but especially for the people at the bottom level because is the, the value of the dollar has, is going down dramatically. And jobs, not only are they not paying more money, but they're losing. If you looked at the report that I believe Anthrop wanted, Claude, it's one of these put out as far as the AI fields that it's going to take. And it just showed like it's just a small percentage of what they assume that the jobs will be taken over the next 20 years.

[Troy]

Yep.

[Jay]

We haven't even touched scratched the surface yet. Especially white collars. Once again. That's why everybody's talking about these trades. That's why the trade thing is like, look, all right, look, can't beat them, Join them. There's going to be some trade things at Invest Fest because, you know, hey, why not? I, I'm tired of going against that wave. So hey, it's not a bad idea.

[Troy]

Go with the trend.

[Jay]

You can't.

[Rashad]

Everybody can't do the same thing.

[Jay]

You can't. It's called you can't beat them, join them. I will say this. I did some research on this. Electricians is the hardest thing to do. It's also why they potentially make the most money. But electrician is kind of hard. Like you got to go to the program. You gotta be an apprentice for four years. You got to pass several tests. Then. Next on that list is plumbers. Ian.

[Rashad]

Has they kicked in?

[Jay]

He lost.

[Rashad]

Ian, Keep going.

[Jay]

Next on that list. Next on that list is plumbers.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Which is also pretty difficult. I did research on it.

[Rashad]

And necessary.

[Jay]

They're all necessary.

[Rashad]

100.

[Jay]

But the easy and nothing is easy in this world. The easiest out of the trades to get in. Do you know?

[Rashad]

I mean there's so many trades.

[Jay]

H Vac.

[Rashad]

Okay.

[Jay]

H Vac is a relatively easiest trade that you can actually get up and running. So that was interesting. And the H Vac is obviously needed. And they do a variety. They do a variety of different things. They cover. They cover a. A wide range of house needs and commercial building needs as well. H Vac.

[Rashad]

Something we can attest to for sure.

[Jay]

For sure.

[Rashad]

Definitely needed the H Vac. You need your avac, you need your electrician and you need your plumber. Vitally important.

[Troy]

Sure.

[Jay]

H Vac, H Vac. Make the world go around. But yeah, construction, that's kind of a little difficult to get into as well. Like on, on the highest level. So. All right, long story short, yes. All signs are pointing to the wealth shifting even more. We're about to have the largest wealth transfer in history. When we talk about baby boomers passing down 401ks.

[Troy]

Yep.

[Jay]

Passing down IRAs, passing down pension plans, passing down homes. We're about to see trillions of dollars being transferred over the next 20 years. The largest wealth transfer in American history. Sad part about it. And life insurance. I forgot to mention that the sad part about it is that a lot of people in our ecosystem, their parents don't have any 401k, they don't own a home, and they don't have life insurance. So the rich get richer. Unfortunately, in life, sometimes the rich get richer and sometimes you can get rich by accident. Literally, you could just get rich by accident. But if you're not, if, if you're not fortunate enough to get rich by accident, you got to get rich on purpose.

[Troy]

Big facts.

[Jay]

Don't let that go over your head.

[Rashad]

Can I, can I add something to this? Because I had a. I had a conversation last night with one of the wealthiest people that I've been around, and the conversation about AI came up, and our interview came up with Sinead about life expectancy. And one of the things we were talking about was the idea of people living longer, but also the reason why they want to live longer. Right. They want to accumulate more wealth, for sure. If the wealthiest people are living longer to accumulate more wealth, well, what happens to the people who are trying? Right. Because they're staying and occupying those spaces? I was like, damn right. Like, that means that they're always going to be a permanent employee class like that it grow because. Right. It's not being passed down to your kids anymore. This is, ain't like, oh, they're gonna, they're gonna botch this. The way we're gonna look at generational wealth is going to be completely different. And then I was like, well, if they live longer, who, who can do it? And so we started the conversation of Eli Lilly. And I know some people are putting in the chat and what GLPs are doing in terms of weight loss and obviously that the health, you know, benefits of people not becoming at risk, what AI is going to do for disease, diabetes, sickle cell, cancer, things of those natures. And it dawned on me that this is, yes, it's a health issue, but who can afford it? Because the next thing we talked about were peptides, which is like the new wave. Like, this is really expensive. Like, this is like a. They're saying, like, it works faster for weight loss and it attacks fat differently, but it's very expensive. And so the people who are doing that and the people who are trying to preserve and live longer, that comes at a cost. And so for the person who can't afford to pay their rent, or the person who has student loan debt, or the person who has credit card debt, can they afford to be in that category of people who are saying, hey, we're going to try to live longer. Whereas the people who have capital will decide, yes, we're living longer and we can afford to live longer.

[Jay]

Well, everybody can afford to live longer.

[Rashad]

Well, if health care doesn't become affordable, then they won't.

[Jay]

Well, the original healthcare, so is, is the, the best medicine.

[Rashad]

Okay.

[Jay]

It comes from the earth.

[Rashad]

This is true.

[Jay]

Me personally, I just started the soursop. I started my soursop cleanse.

[Troy]

Where did you get it from?

[Jay]

Where did I get the soursop? Yeah, like what, what retailer? Yeah, let me do the cleanse first.

[Troy]

Okay?

[Jay]

No, no, no, no, because I want to see. I just started it. It's a 14 day cleanse. Let me do the cleanse first.

[Rashad]

Yes.

[Jay]

If I see positive results, I will give free promo.

[Troy]

Okay.

[Rashad]

This is the thing. This was. All these things are part of the conversation. I'm like, yes, you can. There's so many different things that people are doing right now to, you know, biohack them, their bodies naturally, industrial product, all the things. And I'm like, again, it all comes down to exposure. It comes down to having the resources, but it's ultimately going to come down to the capital that you have in order to do those things. And so, yeah, if we don't have capital.

[Jay]

But once again, I think that I don't agree with that though. It's more expensive to eat bad than it is. Of course it's more expensive. Like you can, you can still health as well.

[Rashad]

Say that line again. Say that line again.

[Jay]

It's more, it's more expensive to eat bad than it is to eat good.

[Rashad]

Yes, I'm with you.

[Jay]

If you really think about it.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Like, you can, you can be healthy. Being healthy is not just for rich people.

[Rashad]

No, no, I'm not saying that. No, no, that, that. I'm not saying. I'm saying people eat healthy and still perish.

[Jay]

Yes, of course.

[Troy]

And on top of that, what they're

[Rashad]

thinking is like, I'm not trying to perish.

[Jay]

Oh, yeah. I mean, that's biohacking.

[Rashad]

This is what I'm saying.

[Jay]

But what I'm saying is that we know that it's a direct correlation from amount of money that you make from the life expectancy that you have. Black people have a lower.

[Rashad]

That's that's where I'm going.

[Jay]

Black people have a lower wealth percentage, but they also live 10 years lower on average.

[Troy]

Why?

[Jay]

Heart disease is the number one killer for black males.

[Rashad]

So what are we consuming?

[Jay]

Junk food.

[Troy]

Right?

[Rashad]

Because it's expensive to have the products that are actually healthier

[Troy]

a lot of times. Real quick, hold on. I'm draw this point right down the

[Rashad]

middle Thousand dollars a week on the zaza something. I'm not listening. Yes, that happens.

[Jay]

That happens.

[Rashad]

But there are people who go like, look at the grocery, bro. Like there's a difference when you go to hmart or shop, whatever. And when you go to. It's a huge difference. Can you afford to be in Whole Foods four times a month? That's tough.

[Troy]

But even, even post acquisition of Amazon because both of you are right and I'm gonna come in the middle. Pause. I know. Pause. I'm funny. The healthier foods have been drained in pesticides where it's even harder to. That's why I asked the soursop question. Even here in Texas, shout out to hb. HB sprouts whole foods. It's hard to find watermelon in store with seeds in it. You know the number one thing that most people consume once a year and don't know that it's filled with poison? It's roses on Valentine's Day. If you've ever been to a rose manufacturer, they smell amazing. But when they handle the roses, they have hazmat suits on head to toe. Ask anyone that's ever worked at a rose farm or factory. All the chemicals that are like, shout out to everybody who get the Venus at you flip the forever flowers and all that. You have to be mindful of how they're sourced because all of those are not built the same. Like Venus is fine. But some of the other brands may not be right. So even if you want to eat healthy, the companies have been sued for putting cell phone towers and energy plants and now data centers and pesticides throughout. Like one company allegedly was so nefarious that if their seed landed on a farmer's property, they couldn't grow crop with their own seed. So it's not just that a person can't eat healthy sometimes as we've been poisoned to death and we feel it when we go out the country, the food that we have here at a high end restaurant isn't comparable to a low end super mercado in Mexico. It's pure in comparison.

[Rashad]

And we, we all traveled and we've traveled the world together and we, I Mean, we, we all can pretty much say the same thing. Every time we eat outside the United States, it's a very different feel. Our bodies feel different. So on top of the food that we're consuming now we're, you know, we're getting sick.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

That's obvious. Statistics are all there. It shows it.

[Troy]

Right.

[Rashad]

So can you stay here in terms of health care? Healthcare is unaffordable. Now does that change? Does that change? So if you can't afford the health care, you can only consume the food that you can afford. And the wealthier are getting wealthier and deciding that we're staying there longer. Yeah. I don't see it getting better.

[Troy]

And the thing about the racial wealth gap that no one ever wants to talk about or say. AI is the final infinity. Infinity Stone in racism because now it separates the racial wealth gap away from a person or a system and it puts it against the machine.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Troy]

If you know that the creation and development of AI is going to lead to all the job erasure and AI is just code now there's no one you can sue because there isn't a legal process to sue an agent or an agentic farm for discrimination. Agent discrimination has been happening at scale for the last year and a half now. Is it affected other parts other than us? Of course. Now I've been saying that the nation is feeling, even with the unrest and the protest, they're feeling what we've been saying the last hundred years. Right. But the final Infinity Stone is to say, okay, if we can't take everything the way we want to take it, let the AI and the agents and the robotics be the face so they don't have anyone to point to to sue or go after. And that's the scary part about AI that you, you have to use it, but it's almost like using a weapon that's going to kill you at the end.

[Jay]

Yeah, for sure. For sure. Let's talk about helium is apd.

[Troy]

Oh, we're gonna just have that sad ass moment then just talk about helium. Right.

[Rashad]

We gotta invest. That's why we got it. And this is important too. Everybody's destiny is not to be a multi millionaire. I think everybody would just love to create income that they can take care of their families and potentially pass something down to the next generation. Does that mean you have to be a billionaire? No. Does that mean you have to be a multi millionaire? Not necessarily. But if you don't invest right. There's no way to work your way to that. Like you, you can't Save your way to that. Like, you have to invest your way to that. And when we're talking about generational opportunities, we're seeing companies that are becoming public and that are public, that are going to be part of that. So you got to participate.

[Jay]

Oh, yeah. You know, I just realized you said the whole thing about roses, but your hat says.

[Rashad]

I was gonna say that, bro.

[Jay]

Which one is it?

[Troy]

Well, when I source them, the ones for my mom, I make sure to pay the premium and she get the ones that are on the field.

[Rashad]

Shout out to D. Rose, man, he got a flower shop.

[Troy]

But we'll talk about a blackout. Just on a regular vibe. No for mama. For sure.

[Jay]

Organic. Organic roasting.

[Rashad]

The organic.

[Troy]

For sure. I got the information. You get the order in a lot. They'll send you. Somebody send me some video. They're like, no. If you go to this place that they put, they tell you all the chemicals. I'm like, it's a full hazmat suit. I'm like, what?

[Rashad]

You didn't know?

[Troy]

I'm like, no, I just. I just buy them. I don't go to the sourcing plant. But you gotta be mindful. You got a new mindful. Importantly, the slow poison.

[Rashad]

Play the non gmo.

[Jay]

Okay.

[Troy]

Where do we go from here?

[Jay]

Where do we go from here? So helium. Helium. You know, remember helium in the balloons when you was a kid, used to, like, you know, it could change your voice.

[Rashad]

Gas man.

[Troy]

Huh? It's gas.

[Rashad]

It's a gas. I know.

[Jay]

Like, you know, you, everybody.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Jay]

You start talking when helium is actually. It's going crazy. It's going crazy right now. So is APD Helium Investment that people should be looking at.

[Troy]

Okay, I'm gonna tell the truth. The company is good. But when we start looking at too far down the commodities list, I don't know if helium is the first sector that I would probably gravitate to. I think this is because of the erasure of the gains, the easy gains out of the Max 7. People are looking elsewhere. And of course, post war, there's been all these reports about the shortages. Is it a good company? Yes. If I can get it at like 213, I would love to buy in. But this is a classic tale of chasing a company too late. Now, if you Got it in 2019, 2020 may have been better. I like this company, but I'm not the biggest on the sector because I think there's better uses of capital for the sector. So as they would say on Shark Tank, for that reason, I'm out APD is a great company. I just don't love the category.

[Rashad]

Yeah, the. I'm gonna get them. I'm gonna give him a little game here because we talked about this two weeks ago in the class around what people were thinking the straight of Hormuz was affecting was just crude oil. And a large part of what's being effective is the helium transport to countries, specifically in Asia, South Korea specifically. And how that affects the entire AI, I guess ecosystem. But specifically the memory sector. When you're talking about helium and it, the role that it plays inside of manufacturing GPUs, CPUs, memory chips, you're not thinking of it in, in that way. But when Qatar, other in Middle Eastern, they have to travel through the straight and that's being blocked. You saw yet today and it looks like it, we're headed tomorrow. The Asian market has pulled back tremendously.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

And it's because some of the largest companies that are relying on that helium, the delay of that and we, we got to really understand how this works. The delay doesn't mean once we open the straight, we're back up and running. Yeah, no. Those ships, if they're not produced, those ships sit there. Right. And if it's not used, then we got a whole nother process. Right. Because the, the gas can't, liquid natural gas just can't sit. It has to actually be traveled, transported and put into function. If it's not, you, you got a whole bunch of complications. And so that delay is why we're starting to see, oh, helium's coming to the front forefront. Because it is. These things were happening naturally. We weren't thinking about them. As soon as there's a cog inside of the ecosystem, you see the importance of it. And so that's why you're starting to see those helium companies, people are talking about it more because it has a major role inside of AI. So you'll see SK Hynix, you'll see Samsung. A lot of companies are trying to figure out, listen, we need to get these ships through. Now I know that they said they're going to let 10 US ships or 10 ships get through the straight. Chinese importers, right, Their ships were getting through, but now they're saying that they're getting charged more. This is a huge, huge disruption. So whenever and hopefully soon enough, this war is kind of something happens, a resolution of some sort, we'll start to see that narrative around helium change.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

So from the commodity standpoint, like you said, on the totem pole of commodities, where is it at? The reason it's having this moment is because of the supply chain disruption that that that is happening from the ships

[Troy]

and it's super choppy. Like if you're going to invest in it you have to wait till the Highest point is 228 but really around 170 because if you look quarter over quarter it'll have three months of a down cycle then pop up and then it'll go through three more months of a down cycle and that's been the, the case since 2010. I'm looking here in 2010 it had maybe six quarters where it was chopping around so it's just not the best use of capital. I get it for the short term desire of it but you want to have long term thinking even in your short term trades. That's probably my big gym of the day. Like it's good but if you weren't thinking about helium before and it's not going to move the GDP of our country or any other nations. Leave it alone with love. Great question

[Rashad]

Secretary of War

[Troy]

give him the link. He come on the show got some questions. Got some questions.

[Rashad]

Yeah crazy.

[Jay]

So apparently, apparently Pete Hex. Hex, yeah broke it attempted to make defense investments before Iran war of course

[Rashad]

yeah they said he this is being reported his broker attempted to call Morgan Stanley and blackrock in February and make a multi million dollar investment in Ishares defense industrials active ETF. So he's trying to buy ETFs in war prior to going into one that you know that you're about to cause.

[Troy]

Allegedly. It's not a surprise.

[Rashad]

Well it's being reported. It's not alleged. It's it's, it's being reported. So yeah yeah gotcha. Surprising the Secretary award Investing in Ward

[Troy]

ETFs told you at investors go to capitaltrades.com I have no affiliation. They tell you everything that they're trying to buy in real time. They're going to front run the trades for sure. So.

[Jay]

What can you do? Mastercard what is the outlook for Mastercard stock?

[Troy]

Mastercard and Visa both have been getting beat up. I still like them long term stock club I won't give our price but if it comes down to 472 I would like if you're new to it you can initiate a position there. It's really risk off for everything like this war is just the first of many canaries in a coal mine and I think when they were having that great run up I think people wanted to take some profits off of the Table. Even Visa, I think unfairly has been beaten up the same. They went from 375 to 299. It could slide further. But both of these are amazing businesses more than anything. If we look from a valuation standpoint, companies are just coming back to the levels in which they should be. I would say the same thing. Even though it's not in the same sector. Lily saying they are going to be fine. But since everyone is risk off, it's a different environment than when everyone was risk on. They were willing to take a little bit more risk to get a higher risk to reward ratio. No one's willing to take it and the market is just settling back to where it should be. But Visa, a MasterCard for sure, long term are great host.

[Rashad]

Yeah. I think AI, I feel like you could just put the AI cloud on everything and use it as the. The barrier for saying, all right, this is why I pulled back. I think when you talk about companies like MasterCard and Visa, you're talking about Staples.

[Troy]

Yes.

[Rashad]

Right. Like if this was a highway finance. Yeah. In fact, this is.

[Troy]

They're.

[Rashad]

They're building the rails AI is going to disrupt. But I think it's going to be more supportive and assistive for those two companies. When we talk about stable coins and what that's going to look like, when we talk about fraud protection, what that'll look like, I think AI helps it. So, yeah, long term, these are the companies that you stay with. For sure.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

Because you're going to see advancement and potentially more efficiency from them because of what AI and the technology will bring.

[Troy]

Why this person kept spamming. Take off my hat. You want my hat? I'll give it to you. Go to Invest Fest. Get your tickets. I got you. But don't be asking me to take off my clothes on my show. This ain't that kind of party. It's not. If I made you money, please put yes in chat. I thought about how to off stage. Michael Jackson said, I got you. You spamming the wrong thing. You should be asking for some prices.

[Rashad]

Amen.

[Troy]

Respectfully.

[Rashad]

Respectfully, of course.

[Troy]

Take off the hat. How a lot of y' all get in trouble too. We talk about on Blackout. Keep the hat on. Keep the hattle that ch up out your account be coming out because you took that.

[Rashad]

You saw Mellow. No, not mellow. Alonzo asked his brother about that.

[Troy]

No, tell.

[Rashad]

I'll send you the clip. I'll send you the clip.

[Troy]

No, don't just. It was a joke me now I'm joking too crazy Respectfully, I'm just. I'm just, I'm. Thank you for being here. I'll take off my hat next week. Media trainer, don't isolate your audience, especially in times of tumult.

[Rashad]

Tomorrow is your word of the day

[Troy]

for sure now, Ian, you're doing so great. After gma, show your personality. Be more loving. Don't isolate your audience. We're going into reception.

[Rashad]

It's a reception indicator for sure.

[Jay]

6,600 people on the second.

[Troy]

Love y' all dearly.

[Jay]

Yes, sir.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Yes, sir. For 2027. If we do hit that major crash, would the allocation be the same as what you just spoke about as far as the hundred thousand. Now

[Troy]

repeat the question again.

[Jay]

2027, how would you allocate for that?

[Troy]

I would, I would have the allocation the same. I probably would go more conservative, though. Well, like, take outside of my skill set because I. I have an idea why I think the market will drop if we do hit there. And it's a great lesson to prepare before the disaster gets there. But I will go super conservative and go all indexes across the board because the drawdown, the rate at which the market will fall is going to be less than the indexes. So if I have vo, vti, vst, and they all on average should be down, let's say maximum 19. That's easier than being down, hypothetically, 48% in Tesla. I would do that until they say the recession is over. Like, literally. I would be tuned into us because, like, as soon as you see the uptick and turn kudos to. I forgot his last name Mark on cnbc. He called the bottom of the recession. So they'll tell you when it's over. But I would keep the allocation the same and I would definitely be more conservative as a result. So you don't have to think about the market as much.

[Rashad]

25, 25, 25 across the board.

[Troy]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Rashad]

What.

[Jay]

What advice would you give for futures traders that's just starting beginners?

[Troy]

Listen to me the first time with love. Only take 12 trades on the year. Realize that if you get this market down, any other market on Earth is easy to do. And I know limitations feel like a restriction, but the restriction is actually protection from devastation. It's like, it's the same thing. Because, you know, I don't know if Xander broke his. Well, fractured his wrist, right? So he's frustrated. He's like, damn, I'm out three weeks. I'm like, but look at all the ball handling you get to do with one hand. You get to work on one hand form now, your shot's better, your shot selection will be better. Now you can think the game through. If I tell the average kid on the AAU team, you only get 12 shots for a year, they are going to approach the game differently than if they get to shoot 15 shots a game. So for my traders, I know 12 seems like very few, but now you pick your spots at the Open and the closed and the London better because you're not just gambling. All the people I know that are taking 16, 70 trades a month, they're not living a life of a prosperous trader. Less is often more.

[Rashad]

That's crazy. 70 trades a month is oh, what?

[Troy]

And that's the oh, yo, bro, I had a bad little, little week. You got any advice for me? I'm like, I'm about to go into interview, man, please spare five minutes. Listen the first time. I love you. Please, please, like, less is more. If you, if you took one good trade at the top of this month, or let's say you forced it and took two, you should be up a considerable amount of money. Especially if you listen if you're in stock club. One of them days when I was in New York, I called a price where the market was going to fall to on the short. Yes or no, put it in chat. Less is more. Like, sometimes you have to just appreciate the blessing of what you have in front of you and stop saying, well, what if I made a market Tuesday? Market Tuesday is not a hit market. Monies. I've seen some of y' all shout out to all y' all who make the derivative shows. Respectfully, the derivative market, it's another master investor show out there. I'm like, let me go sit down with him too and collab. It's a recession. Got to be nice. Can't isolate your audience. Back to you, Troy Rashad.

[Rashad]

The derivative market, for real, it's like, damn, do less.

[Troy]

Less is more. This isn't the NBA or college sports where more shots is better. Less is more. I promise you.

[Rashad]

Yeah, you gotta really have mental fortitude to be trading 70 times a month crazy like that. I don't even the anxiety that that would cause and like the angst that that would cause. It would just be too much. I mean that would be for me. But I guess everybody has their own trading style, which is important to find who you are as a trader.

[Troy]

Stop trading like that because then you're gonna be on shrimp at night with your girl because you stressed out because you didn't lost all your Money, baby. What's wrong? Oh, nothing, man. You tr. Rashad?

[Rashad]

No.

[Troy]

You took nine trades at the Open.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Troy]

Can I take a trade at 7:21am I never said that. The American Open is at 8:30 Central. Why? Well, Trump said. Okay, well, get your money back from Baron. He not gonna talk to you. Follow the plan.

[Rashad]

Baron making his own money. It. You know what it is? And I think I wrote this down as one of those quotes. I was going to lead it with the next meeting I had, but it was like, you don't need to catch every move. You need to survive long enough to catch the right moves. A lot of people will just try, hey, I got to do this. I got to. You don't have to catch everyone, right? Like we, we've had spaces where like we call something out and it jumped 10 the next day and it like, oh, I missed it. Well, maybe you didn't. Right? Like it's a 10 move. That, that's not the end of the world. Especially when we're talking about buying time. So not trying to catch every move, but being in the space long enough to catch the right move. Whereas if you're trading 15, 20 times a week, you're gonna have a lot of bad moves and that you might be out of here in a month and like, you'll never come back. And the idea is to make sure that you have the wherewithal to stay here long term. Like, be in the right space, be in the right moves. Don't try to go jump at every one of them. There's two things real quick. There's two things that, that are going to happen, right? There's going to be people who are going to react to the noise and the sensation of it. And then there's going to be the people who are just figuring out, like, I'm going to compound and I'm going to double down on the intent of why I'm doing it. You got to figure out who you're going to be in that space.

[Jay]

Brandon, dme, please, with the question that you had, please DM me to my personal Instagram page. Do it now if you can. Somebody said, should they put stop losses on long term investments or does that just pertain to trading 25 for your

[Troy]

long term, given it the volatility in this market, especially if you're not using the 72, 200 or 400 EMAs? I give you my somber voice as we close out on Monday. So.

[Jay]

And also, and also does the stop loss pertain to if you're actually up meaning, okay, Microsoft. If you. If you were up 30 on Microsoft, right? And now you are up 2%, you didn't. You didn't lose money yet, but you did lose 28.

[Troy]

That's a great point. No, no, from whatever your average price in, that's where you set the stop loss. So if you go up 50, I don't want you to move your stop loss up because you're gonna end up missing out on a ton of money until you get to a hundred percent, 500 return. You shouldn't move your stop losses because you'll move it up too quickly. Get stopped out. And like, imagine if you. You were up 25 on Nvidia three years ago and you move your stop up to protect it. You missed out on 600 return. Yeah. So it's. It's from. From your initial point as well. Yeah.

[Jay]

Okay.

[Rashad]

Safety first.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Okay.

[Troy]

I thought the haters were fake. All haters fake. There's nothing but the love of God that you need. And if you're gonna be very honest, it is a blessing to be able to do what we do. Because in the 1980s, 90s, or 2000s, it would have taken $500,000 a month to probably have the show. So there is no hate community. And Unity is the blueprint. I know when some of y' all saw me sit down in the interview with the affiliated Joe, you know, I mean, you thought it was drama. That's part of the marketing, baby. I'm too solid to act any other way. Any other way. Shout out to Daddy. Daddy gave me a good interview. I ain't gonna hold you. And even for. For the market Tuesdays, there was a person who tried to make a show on Tuesday. I'm not talking about Trap. Don't try and make it no beef between nobody. I have too much money for beef. I'm gonna say that too, for y'.

[Jay]

All.

[Troy]

Get the. No, no, no. I was not saying no. There's no beef. There's no beef. There's no drama. I got love for everybody. So don't do that either. Don't do that either. I'm putting it on the record.

[Rashad]

Don't do it either, please. Respectfully.

[Troy]

And also, the affiliate said he's gonna leave that space because there's not enough money in that space. The affiliates in the Legion of Doom, people want to make drama. It's too much money. It's hundreds and fifties, millions sitting around, and people want to talk about conflict and drama. The drama probably cost us running Wall street or at least a Daytime talk show,

[Rashad]

perhaps. All goody.

[Troy]

For real.

[Rashad]

Goody.

[Troy]

So this water in this glass. Passion. You know what's in this glass? Financial freedom. Stop asking me what I'm drinking. I'm free. That's what I'm drinking. When y' all first met me, I was up enough to never work another day of my life. It's freedom. It's passion talking. When Jack gets to talking. That same at Elon said. Y' all don't say that. What are you drinking? Prosperity. If you want the same, go to universe.com and join the stock club. I'm great at this, but yes. And chat. If I made you money. The originator, none greater. Jay Z. Finish the. Y' all gonna be so mad. We're tired. One of you reavered her. Hit you with the

[Rashad]

fly.

[Troy]

Thank you, Prosperity.

[Rashad]

Oh, man, that was fun.

[Troy]

These are just jokes written by 85South. If you want to be entertained and educated and informed, get your tickets to Invest Fest back to you.

[Rashad]

That's a fact, man.

[Troy]

That is a fact.

[Rashad]

Don't talk to me about nothing. Y' all was in them cues for them jay Z tickets. 800. 1700 for no. 17, 000 for front row. All y' all in queue. Stop it.

[Jay]

Three nights, Yankee Stadium. Yeah, Three nights.

[Rashad]

Well, y' all already know. Y' all already know.

[Jay]

Three nights.

[Troy]

It's playoffs time in business now. And these are how the conversations go when the cameras are off with the people who run the world. Ask them how they acted at Davos. It's a lot of energy in the buildings, in the rooms, but they. They give you a calm and demure perspective on the market because they don't want you to. All the great business people are wolves. I keep going back to Jack in that bed, in that fan. That boy was working his ass off building that thing while still running square.

[Rashad]

Yeah, he's on some.

[Troy]

Jack Ballard for sure. Locked in.

[Rashad]

And he told him straight up. When we talked. We kind of alluded to it earlier, like, it's gonna get worse. This dude said, look, I built this with two people what took me 18 months and a thousand employees. Took me two weeks and two employees. Proceed.

[Troy]

If you see Rashad posting the. The black background with the white letters, and he edited clips. Boys, grind season. You gotta watch for the indicators. Detroit gets the posted more.

[Rashad]

Stay tuned, Alert.

[Troy]

Everyone's working. This is my passion talking A gift that God gave me.

[Jay]

Won't he do it?

[Troy]

Won't he do it and won't he do it so.

[Jay]

All right, ladies and gentlemen, it's been real.

[Troy]

Buy flowers. Your mama.

[Rashad]

Buy files for your moms.

[Jay]

Not.

[Troy]

Not the vibe. We'll talk about it on Blackout. And, Chris Breezy, thank you for freeing that man from that unhappy home. My boy. I see you. I'm gonna be kissing.

[Rashad]

They said that clip was edited, man, but I'm sure that's somebody.

[Troy]

I bet somebody, somebody.

[Rashad]

Girl got the lip service.

[Jay]

Yeah. Blackout. We got a lot to talk about, man. That was just a preview. We got a lot to talk about, Blackout. So much, so much, so much to talk about. You Remember Pinky Cole? 12 o' clock on Thursday. Earn your leisure, man. She got a lot. She got a lot that she needs to, you know, get out to the world.

[Troy]

Yep.

[Jay]

And what better place than earn your leisure, man? We had Rich Lou Dennis last week.

[Troy]

Great convo.

[Jay]

Thank you. Yeah.

[Rashad]

Who's that?

[Troy]

Boville. She gonna be an investor, man.

[Rashad]

Yo, that was. Who prompted that? What prompted that

[Troy]

great episode? I'm just, you know, research.

[Jay]

She was just.

[Rashad]

No problems with that now.

[Jay]

She was just with Oprah. Yeah. You know what, man? You know, we could definitely, you know, break some news. Sonato Belt will definitely be at Invest.

[Rashad]

She will be there.

[Troy]

Okay. Look at God.

[Rashad]

That conversation is too important. Her intelligence, her light is too important. The world needs to see it firsthand. So she will be there.

[Jay]

She will definitely be in the building to prop.

[Troy]

Better for investor.

[Jay]

That's a sneak. That's a little sneak. That's the first person that we've actually announced. Sneak. Sneak peek. You know, just a quick sneak peek.

[Troy]

Mike B. I need six.

[Rashad]

I want suiting back.

[Troy]

Okay. Gotcha. God did.

[Rashad]

Be careful. Oscar worthy. Yo, Happy, happy birthday. I got my niece's birthdays this weekend. Happy resurrection Sunday to everybody. Uh, Easter is this Sunday. Uh, get your bun and cheese on my Jamaicans. I gotta run the Royal Caribbean or somewhere. Golden Crust, maybe. Shout out. Shout out to, uh, everybody that is celebrating, uh, Good Friday, obviously, as well.

[Troy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

Time is fine. We here, we're here. It's no spring break for the kids. Be safe. Be safe.

[Jay]

All right, y', all, it's been real. We'll tap in with you. See you on Wednesday for Blackout, and then Thursday for eyl.

[Rashad]

Love is love is love, y'.

[Troy]

All. Dang it. Show over already. Ms. Y'.

[Rashad]

All.

[Troy]

Love y'. All. Peace.

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