Deep Dive into TSM, AI Chip Stocks, and Geopolitical Impact

Summary

Market Mondays — Deep Dive into TSM, AI Chip Stocks, and Geopolitical Impact

Podcast: Market Mondays (EYL Network)
Date: October 18, 2025
Host(s): EYL, featuring stock market expert Ian Dunlap
Special Guest: Ali Jackson (brief appearance)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, the Market Mondays team takes a focused look at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC, or TSM), the broader AI chip ecosystem, and the crucial geopolitics affecting semiconductor stocks. The discussion centers on investment strategies, recent market moves, the significance of TSM in the global supply chain, and ways investors can profit in a sensitive and fast-changing environment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

TSMC’s Market Performance & Trade Opportunities

• Recent TSM Moves:

  • The hosts highlight a call to invest in TSM following a significant pullback ([01:42]).
  • TSM dropped to around $280 from $304, which presented an entry for both short and long-term options trading.

• Investment Strategy:

  • Ian Dunlap describes his approach to “stacking” options calls as prices move.
  • His options range all the way out to 2027, reinforcing belief in TSM’s long-term value ([01:42–03:05]).
  • “We’ve been in this stock since it was $83… Most people saw how we started this year up a thousand percent on TSM. If you understand the company right, you’re investing in it, you have shares in it already, which I do.” — Ian Dunlap ([03:05])

• Catalysts & Earnings:

  • TSM had an upcoming catalyst (earnings report) set for Thursday, crucial for short-term traders.
  • Fast results: Within 20 hours, they were up 15-20% on the call, eventually hitting 60% ([03:05]).

The Pivotal Role of TSM in AI and Chips

• TSMC’s Centrality:

  • The panel details how TSM is the chip maker for AI leaders (OpenAI, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom).
  • “Who manufactures for all of them? Taiwan Semi.” — Financial Analyst ([02:39])
  • Without TSM, major AI advancements would stall: “Without TSM, none of this works. Right. It just doesn’t work. And they’re that important.” — Financial Analyst ([04:12])

• ASML Mention:

  • ASML, another integral player, has an earnings report due on Wednesday. Still, TSM remains more central to the “machine” of global chip supply.

Geopolitics and Global Supply Chain

• Geopolitical Risk:

  • TSM’s Asia location is perceived as its main vulnerability, preventing it from overtaking US tech giants:
    • “If they were in San Jose, TSM would be wiping the floor with Nvidia.” — Guest or Industry Expert ([04:32])
    • Even Warren Buffett’s interest was reportedly checked only by locality and global tensions ([04:54]).

• US Supply Chain Moves:

  • The US is pushing for domestic fabs; Arizona TSM plants are being expedited and are set to come online by next year.
  • “The most important thing that the United States wants from a fiscal policy standpoint is they want to make sure they can control supply chain.” — Financial Analyst ([05:08])
  • TSM has agreed to domestic US production. Micron and others also comply to mitigate risks like the pandemic-driven shortages.

• Supply Control:

  • Candid account of US “requiring” domestic manufacturing to de-risk future disruptions:
    • “You want to do something, you better make it here, right?” — Financial Analyst ([05:38])

Live Q&A and Community Engagement

Note: Listener questions and caller engagement are mentioned in the podcast description but do not occur within the supplied transcript.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On TSM’s Position in AI:

  • “When I keep hearing that we’re in the second inning of the AI trade… I’m listening to OpenAI and their partnership now with Broadcom. I’m thinking, okay: semi, semi, semi. Who manufactures for all of them? Taiwan Semi.” — Financial Analyst ([02:39])

• Urgency & Execution:

  • “Yo, Shot, give me like 10 minutes. I’m gonna go into my files, I’m gonna figure out a call that we can get into that makes a lot of sense.” — Financial Analyst ([01:54])

• On the Mutual Dependencies in Tech:

  • “They definitely need each other… Without TSM, none of this works.” — Financial Analyst ([04:12])

• On Geopolitical Tension:

  • “Who put out the geopolitical threat to thwart them from being the number one stock in tech? Because if they were in San Jose, TSM would be wiping the floor with Nvidia.” — Guest or Industry Expert ([04:32])

• Buffett’s Assessment:

  • “I remember three years ago watching Warren Buffett sitting in Taiwan and talking about the importance of the company and the only thing that was holding them back was the geopolitical tension.” — Financial Analyst ([04:54])

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Key Timestamps

• [01:12] — TSMC’s recent market dip & setting up the trade
• [01:42–03:05] — Ian Dunlap on options, investment strategies, TSM’s role
• [03:05–04:12] — TSM’s position, earnings catalyst, and market importance
• [04:32] — Geopolitical tensions affecting TSM’s valuation and prominence
• [04:54–06:13] — US supply chain moves & importance of onshoring semiconductor manufacturing

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Conclusion

This episode offers deep, actionable insight into TSM as both a trading opportunity and a global linchpin in the AI revolution, highlighting the critical intersection of technology, market dynamics, and geopolitics. The experts share not only specific investment strategies and examples but also broader context about why TSM and the chip sector remain must-watch for traders and investors.

Transcript

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[Host or Moderator]

So talking about AI chip stocks. So yeah, one of the, the calls that we made on Friday was the smh. So not smh. Tsm. Oh yeah, yeah, so talk about that. Know we saw it when we got back to America. We saw that the market was bleeding and TSM was down pretty, pretty heavy relative. And yeah, made the call on that and they was up today actually. So talk about tsm. Talk about the call.

[Financial Analyst or Investment Expert]

Yeah, TSM has always been one of my favorite companies. I've talked about it for probably six years now. @ least, at least we, we've been in, in this, in this stock since it was 83. And so we've got option calls on it since then. And so obviously we have an option stack. And what I'm talking about, my stacks is that I have so many calls as the, the number keeps running up, the equity number keeps running up that we into new positions. When I saw the pullback as we landed, I'm like, this is a perfect opportune time. I said, yo, shot to give me like 10 minutes. I'm gonna go into my files, I'm gonna figure out a call that we can get into that makes a lot of sense. And so I saw it pull back down to 2 80. It had been trading at like 303, 304 in that range. But the reason I liked it obviously is the run up. It's been up 100 this year. But the reason I liked it is because I understand what TSM means to this economy. And when I keep Hearing that we're in the second inning of the AI trade or the. I don't even want to use the B word. We're in the second. When I'm looking at the demand and I'm hearing about Open AI and their partnership with Nzidia and I'm listening to OpenAI and their partnership with AMD and I'm listening to AI and I'm like, Open AI and their partnership now with Broadcom. I'm thinking, okay, semi, semi, semi. Who manufactures for all of them? Taiwan, Semi.

[Ali Jackson]

Yeah.

[Financial Analyst or Investment Expert]

They also have their Catalyst event on Thursday. They're going to be reporting their earnings and if you study their earnings, if you watch the third quarter of how they reported, you've seen a steady increase. And so shout out to everybody in EYLU that uses estimized to watch the quarterly flow of these companies. I saw it depreciate to a point. I'm like, this makes a lot of sense. We got into a call, it probably was like 2:32:45 on Friday and here we are Monday, you up 15:20 within 20 hours. I actually went on a shorter term call because of the Catalyst event. And so then we're up like 60%. But again that I'm not just doing a short term call because I want to do a short term call. Yeah, I have calls out to 2027, I have calls 2026 for TSM. Most people saw how we started this year up a thousand percent on tsm. If you understand the company right, you're investing in it, you have shares in it already, which I do. And you understand how this piece is crucial.

[Podcast Sponsor Announcer]

Yeah, it's crazy.

[Financial Analyst or Investment Expert]

Like every piece is delicate. Right. And this is probably one of the most we know asml, they're going to be reporting on Wednesday as well. Their role without tsm none of this works. Right. It just, it just doesn't work. And they're that important. So I'm interested to see what happens Thursday. But yeah, I mean if we believe in it, we should make money on the way up.

[Guest or Industry Expert]

And it makes me wonder who put out the geopolitical threat to thwart them from being the number one stock and tech. Because if they were in San Jose, TSM would be wiping the floor with Nvidia. There's no question one of the most important companies in these last 25 years.

[Financial Analyst or Investment Expert]

Yeah, they definitely need each other. I remember three years ago watching Warren Buffett sitting in Taiwan and talking about the importance of a company and the only thing that was holding them back was the geopolitical tension. And then you start seeing they were the. I feel like they were the first ones to say, all right, we're going to bring our labs and our fabs and to America. And that was. The Arizona plans was going to be online. And that's kind of been expedited. Those. Those plants will be online by next year. And so the most important thing that the United States wants from a fiscal standpoint, fiscal policy standpoint, is they want to make sure that they can control supply chain. And we can't have anything happen like 2020, where supply chain gets disrupted by a global pandemic, and now we don't have access. And so having it here at home is of utmost importance. And you can see it's kind of the same machine that they run. Hey, you want to do something, you better make it here, right? And so TSM has fallen in line. Micron has fallen in line of these American companies. You're gonna. You're not gonna outsource this. We need to make sure that we have fabs here so we can control the supply chain. In fact, you know, last week we talked about, they offered TSM to actually produce more. And they're like, no, I think we're good. We'll stay here.

[Ali Jackson]

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