Market Mondays — Deep Dive into TSM, AI Chip Stocks, and Geopolitical Impact

Podcast: Market Mondays (EYL Network)
Date: October 18, 2025
Host(s): EYL, featuring stock market expert Ian Dunlap
Special Guest: Ali Jackson (brief appearance)

Episode Overview

In this episode, the Market Mondays team takes a focused look at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC, or TSM), the broader AI chip ecosystem, and the crucial geopolitics affecting semiconductor stocks. The discussion centers on investment strategies, recent market moves, the significance of TSM in the global supply chain, and ways investors can profit in a sensitive and fast-changing environment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

TSMC’s Market Performance & Trade Opportunities

• Recent TSM Moves:

  • The hosts highlight a call to invest in TSM following a significant pullback ([01:42]).
  • TSM dropped to around $280 from $304, which presented an entry for both short and long-term options trading.

• Investment Strategy:

  • Ian Dunlap describes his approach to “stacking” options calls as prices move.
  • His options range all the way out to 2027, reinforcing belief in TSM’s long-term value ([01:42–03:05]).
  • “We’ve been in this stock since it was $83… Most people saw how we started this year up a thousand percent on TSM. If you understand the company right, you’re investing in it, you have shares in it already, which I do.” — Ian Dunlap ([03:05])

• Catalysts & Earnings:

  • TSM had an upcoming catalyst (earnings report) set for Thursday, crucial for short-term traders.
  • Fast results: Within 20 hours, they were up 15-20% on the call, eventually hitting 60% ([03:05]).

The Pivotal Role of TSM in AI and Chips

• TSMC’s Centrality:

  • The panel details how TSM is the chip maker for AI leaders (OpenAI, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom).
  • “Who manufactures for all of them? Taiwan Semi.” — Financial Analyst ([02:39])
  • Without TSM, major AI advancements would stall: “Without TSM, none of this works. Right. It just doesn’t work. And they’re that important.” — Financial Analyst ([04:12])

• ASML Mention:

  • ASML, another integral player, has an earnings report due on Wednesday. Still, TSM remains more central to the “machine” of global chip supply.

Geopolitics and Global Supply Chain

• Geopolitical Risk:

  • TSM’s Asia location is perceived as its main vulnerability, preventing it from overtaking US tech giants:
    • “If they were in San Jose, TSM would be wiping the floor with Nvidia.” — Guest or Industry Expert ([04:32])
    • Even Warren Buffett’s interest was reportedly checked only by locality and global tensions ([04:54]).

• US Supply Chain Moves:

  • The US is pushing for domestic fabs; Arizona TSM plants are being expedited and are set to come online by next year.
  • “The most important thing that the United States wants from a fiscal policy standpoint is they want to make sure they can control supply chain.” — Financial Analyst ([05:08])
  • TSM has agreed to domestic US production. Micron and others also comply to mitigate risks like the pandemic-driven shortages.

• Supply Control:

  • Candid account of US “requiring” domestic manufacturing to de-risk future disruptions:
    • “You want to do something, you better make it here, right?” — Financial Analyst ([05:38])

Live Q&A and Community Engagement

Note: Listener questions and caller engagement are mentioned in the podcast description but do not occur within the supplied transcript.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On TSM’s Position in AI:

  • “When I keep hearing that we’re in the second inning of the AI trade… I’m listening to OpenAI and their partnership now with Broadcom. I’m thinking, okay: semi, semi, semi. Who manufactures for all of them? Taiwan Semi.” — Financial Analyst ([02:39])

• Urgency & Execution:

  • “Yo, Shot, give me like 10 minutes. I’m gonna go into my files, I’m gonna figure out a call that we can get into that makes a lot of sense.” — Financial Analyst ([01:54])

• On the Mutual Dependencies in Tech:

  • “They definitely need each other… Without TSM, none of this works.” — Financial Analyst ([04:12])

• On Geopolitical Tension:

  • “Who put out the geopolitical threat to thwart them from being the number one stock in tech? Because if they were in San Jose, TSM would be wiping the floor with Nvidia.” — Guest or Industry Expert ([04:32])

• Buffett’s Assessment:

  • “I remember three years ago watching Warren Buffett sitting in Taiwan and talking about the importance of the company and the only thing that was holding them back was the geopolitical tension.” — Financial Analyst ([04:54])

Key Timestamps

• [01:12] — TSMC’s recent market dip & setting up the trade
• [01:42–03:05] — Ian Dunlap on options, investment strategies, TSM’s role
• [03:05–04:12] — TSM’s position, earnings catalyst, and market importance
• [04:32] — Geopolitical tensions affecting TSM’s valuation and prominence
• [04:54–06:13] — US supply chain moves & importance of onshoring semiconductor manufacturing

Conclusion

This episode offers deep, actionable insight into TSM as both a trading opportunity and a global linchpin in the AI revolution, highlighting the critical intersection of technology, market dynamics, and geopolitics. The experts share not only specific investment strategies and examples but also broader context about why TSM and the chip sector remain must-watch for traders and investors.