Market Mondays Episode #244 Summary: Stock Crash: Buying Opportunities? China's DeepSeek vs OpenAI, Nvidia Collapse, Trump ETF, & Bitcoin
Podcast Information:
- Title: Market Mondays
- Host/Author: EYL Network
- Description: On Market Mondays, Earn Your Leisure and stock market expert Ian Dunlap discuss strategies to make money in the stock market under any circumstance. The show also features live caller investment questions, providing a fresh perspective on investing and money management.
Episode Details:
- Episode: MM #244: Stock Crash: Buying Opportunities? China's DeepSeek vs OpenAI, Nvidia Collapse, Trump ETF, & Bitcoin
- Release Date: January 28, 2025
1. Introduction and Announcements
The episode kicks off with the usual greetings and brief updates on upcoming shows. Hosts Ian Dunlap, Rashad Bilal, and Troy Millings emphasize the eventful nature of the current market week.
Notable Quotes:
- Ian Dunlap [01:05]: "It has been an eventful Monday, to say the least."
- Troy Millings [01:25]: "We saw Caterpillar rise last week. RTX is reporting this week. These are the type of companies we're discussing."
2. Market Overview and Volatility Indicators
The hosts delve into the current stock market volatility, focusing on the VIX index—a key measure of market risk and investor sentiment.
Discussion Points:
- VIX Trends: The VIX recently closed at 15, jumped to 20, and reached 2162, indicating significant market turbulence.
- Implications: A low VIX typically signals complacency in the market, which can precede major downturns.
Notable Quotes:
- Rashad Bilal [87:23]: "VIX is a measure of volatility in the market. When it's at a low, usually the market is at a high and then it's going to have a reversal."
- Ian Dunlap [88:14]: "If the VIX is at a low, it's usually a canary in a coal mine telling you that turmoil is about to happen."
3. Key Topics Discussed
a. Trump ETF and DeepSeek vs. OpenAI
The conversation shifts to the potential introduction of a Trump ETF and the emergence of China's DeepSeek technology as a competitor to OpenAI.
Discussion Points:
- Trump ETF: Speculation around the creation of a Trump-themed Exchange-Traded Fund, involving major players like Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle.
- DeepSeek Allegations: Concerns about DeepSeek's ability to rival OpenAI with claims of utilizing vast Nvidia GPU resources efficiently, potentially undermining existing AI leaders.
Notable Quotes:
- Rashad Bilal [06:40]: "After the success of the Trump coin, the next move would be to have a Trump ETF."
- Ian Dunlap [22:57]: "Nvidia is still going to be necessary even for DeepSeek. They still need the GPUs."
b. Nvidia's Stock Collapse and AI Bubble Concerns
Nvidia experienced a significant stock drop of 15%, sparking discussions about the sustainability of AI-driven market valuations.
Discussion Points:
- Stock Impact: Major chip stocks like Nvidia, SMH, ASML, and TSM saw drastic declines.
- AI Bubble: Debate on whether the AI sector was overhyped and if the stock pullback signals a market correction or a fundamental shift.
Notable Quotes:
- Troy Millings [17:58]: "All of these chip stocks are down drastically. Is this a reset and it's going to be just a lot slower growth for these companies?"
- Ian Dunlap [22:14]: "Is Nvidia overhyped? No, they're still necessary. They’re part of the advanced hardware essential for AI development."
c. Impact on Other Tech Giants
The hosts analyze how the Nvidia crash affects other tech giants like Meta, Microsoft, AMD, and Oracle, emphasizing the interconnectedness of AI advancements and hardware investments.
Discussion Points:
- Meta's Turnaround: Despite doubling capex spending on AI infrastructure, Meta's stock reached all-time highs, indicating investor confidence in their strategic shift.
- Microsoft and AMD: Both companies are expected to continue their strong performance in the AI and chip sectors.
Notable Quotes:
- Rashad Bilal [12:45]: "Most people who put money out are looking to get 10x back."
- Ian Dunlap [13:57]: "Meta has been one of the greatest comebacks since 2022."
4. Cryptocurrency Insights
The discussion transitions to the cryptocurrency market, focusing on Bitcoin's recent decline and potential buying opportunities.
Discussion Points:
- Bitcoin Trends: Bitcoin recently dropped by $5,000, breaking into the $90,000 range, with suggestions that buying opportunities exist if it falls further into the $80,000s.
- Market Cycles: Emphasis on understanding market timing, holding long-term investments, and recognizing cyclical patterns for optimal investment strategies.
Notable Quotes:
- Rashad Bilal [36:36]: "If you're going to hold for a five-year period and Bitcoin is averaging 100 a year, it would be a good time to buy."
- Troy Millings [36:36]: "Is it a good time to buy crypto? Because we do see XRP back under $3, Bitcoin under $100,000."
5. Interest Rates and Economic Indicators
The hosts briefly touch upon the influence of interest rates, particularly in Japan, and their impact on global markets.
Discussion Points:
- Interest Rate Impact: The effect of rising or falling interest rates on investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of dollar-cost averaging and hedging investments.
Notable Quotes:
- Troy Millings [36:36]: "It's always a good idea to invest at all times, dollar cost average, especially when things are down."
6. Dividend Stocks and Investment Picks
A segment is dedicated to discussing dividend-paying stocks and identifying potential investment opportunities amidst market volatility.
Discussion Points:
- Recommended Stocks: Nvidia, Apple, Meta, AMD, TSM, Palo Alto, and others are highlighted as strong investment options despite recent market downturns.
- Dividend Insights: Debate on the necessity of dividend stocks in a market dominated by high-growth tech companies.
Notable Quotes:
- Rashad Bilal [30:57]: "Nvidia, Apple, Meta."
- Ian Dunlap [29:40]: "I'm still in TSM. That's not a MAGA."
7. Guest Segment: Derek Lewis
The episode features a special guest, Derek Lewis—a seasoned entrepreneur, author, and former President of Multicultural at PepsiCo. Derek shares his insights on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI), his entrepreneurial journey, and strategies for business growth.
Discussion Points:
- DEI Evolution: Derek critiques the outdated DEI playbook, advocating for a more comprehensive approach encompassing collaboration and compassion.
- Entrepreneurship Journey: Transitioning from a corporate role at PepsiCo to owning and scaling franchises with Big Dave's CheeseSteaks, emphasizing mentorship and community impact.
- Book Launch: Derek promotes his memoir, "Surviving and Advancing," detailing his resilience and strategies for personal and professional growth.
Notable Quotes:
- Derek Lewis [104:14]: "Bet on yourself. Believe in yourself. Be yourself."
- Rashad Bilal [110:55]: "What suggestions would you give to be able to get some of that equity back that has been taken from us over the last couple of months?"
- Derek Lewis [122:54]: "This book gives you valuable lessons chapter to chapter. All 25 chapters have stories that are told that ultimately create lessons."
8. Closing Remarks and Upcoming Shows
The hosts wrap up the episode by reiterating upcoming events, expressing gratitude, and offering personal shoutouts to listeners.
Announcements:
- Wednesday's Blackout Hour: "Don't forget 10 o'clock on Wednesday."
- Thursday's Episode: Special on home buying with Kiana Watson at 9:00 PM EST.
- Friday's Stock Club Call: Scheduled for 5:00 PM Central.
- Weekend Mastermind in Atlanta: Encouragement to attend for registered participants.
Notable Quotes:
- Rashad Bilal [127:33]: "Shout out to everyone born in January. Rest in peace to those who lost loved ones this weekend."
- Ian Dunlap [129:11]: "Another author, man. Congrats on that for sure."
Conclusion:
Episode #244 of Market Mondays provides a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape, highlighting critical issues in the tech and AI sectors, cryptocurrency trends, and investment strategies amidst volatility. The insightful guest segment with Derek Lewis adds depth to the discussion, focusing on leadership, DEI, and entrepreneurial growth. Whether you're an investor looking for opportunities during a market crash or someone interested in the evolving dynamics of AI and tech giants, this episode offers valuable perspectives and actionable insights.
Listen to the full episode for an in-depth analysis and expert opinions on navigating today's complex financial markets.