MM #255: The Big Short: Global Economic Collapse?, Trump vs Powell, & Real Cost of Capitalism ft Steve Eisman

Summary

Market Mondays #255: The Big Short: Global Economic Collapse?, Trump vs Powell, & Real Cost of Capitalism ft Steve Eisman

Release Date: April 22, 2025

In Episode #255 of Market Mondays, hosted by Ian Dunlap and the EYL Network, the discussion delves deep into the looming threats of a global economic collapse, the ongoing tensions between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and the intrinsic costs embedded within capitalism. The episode is further enriched by an insightful interview with Steve Eisman, a renowned investor best known for his role in predicting the 2008 financial crisis, as depicted in the film The Big Short.

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1. Current Economic Climate and Market Sentiments

The episode kicks off with Rushad Bilal highlighting upcoming events and promoting various financial and entrepreneurial initiatives. However, the primary focus swiftly shifts to the pressing economic issues dominating the landscape.

Ian Dunlap opens the conversation by acknowledging the chaotic nature of current economic announcements, particularly noting the unpredictable actions of political figures and their implications on the markets.

2. Stock Market Analysis: AMD and Nvidia

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the performance and future outlook of major tech stocks, especially AMD and Nvidia.

• AMD's Decline and Prospects

  Angela Rod expresses skepticism about AMD's sustainability in the current market, citing its seven negative months and highlighting fierce competition from giants like Nvidia, TSM, ASML, and Qualcomm.

  "Unless you're getting it at a historic low... I don't think we've gotten there yet." (Angela Rod: 08:17)

  Ian Dunlap concurs, emphasizing the bearish trend but remains cautiously optimistic about potential rebounds tied to technological advancements and strategic positioning.

• Nvidia's Dominance and Future

  Ian Dunlap elaborates on Nvidia's unparalleled position in the GPU market, asserting that "there really isn't a number two." (Angela Rod: 103:56) He praises Nvidia's strong margins and market dominance, considering it a prime candidate for long-term investment despite short-term consolidations.

  Angela Rod adds, "Nvidia's dominance right now is comparable to Microsoft run in the 90s." (Angela Rod: 104:13) She underscores Nvidia's robust financials, highlighting its impressive profit margins and return on equity.

3. The Real Cost of Capitalism: Pricing and Inflation

The conversation shifts to the broader implications of capitalism, focusing on pricing strategies and inflation.

• Inflated Prices and Consumer Impact

  Rashad Bilal raises concerns about the exorbitant markups on essential goods, questioning the sustainability of such pricing models. He muses, "Why am I paying $100,000 for a car?" and draws parallels with the affordability challenges consumers face.

  Angela Rod echoes these sentiments, discussing the steep rise in living costs without corresponding increases in wages. She points out, "We're seeing record credit card debt which is not being talked about enough." (Angela Rod: 24:11)

• Potential Rebellion and Market Dynamics

  The hosts contemplate the possibility of consumer backlash against inflated prices, which could lead to significant shifts in market dynamics and business practices.

4. Leadership Tensions: Trump vs Powell

A heated segment explores the strained relationship between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

• Jerome Powell Under Fire

  Rashad Bilal informs listeners about Trump's vehement criticism of Powell, labeling him a major loser and expressing desires for Powell's retirement. "Trump wants a commitment and he wants it to happen as soon as possible. Is that something that's going to happen or..." (Rashad Bilal: 45:25)

  Angela Rod empathizes with Powell's predicament, stating, "He’s in an unwinnable position." (Angela Rod: 46:54) The discussion highlights the broader implications of this tension on economic policies and market stability.

• Potential Replacement and Implications

  The conversation touches upon the rumors surrounding Kevin Warsh as a potential successor to Powell, emphasizing the challenges of maintaining Fed independence amidst political pressures.

5. Global Trade War and Economic Policies

The episode delves into the complexities of the US-China trade war and its ramifications on the global economy.

• Steve Eisman's Insights on Trade Wars

  In an exclusive interview, Steve Eisman provides a nuanced perspective on the current trade tensions. He clarifies that while parallels exist between today's economy and the 2008 financial crisis, the underlying causes differ significantly.

  "Do I think a trade war would cause a recession? Absolutely." (Steve Eisman: 64:02)

  Eisman emphasizes the resilience and reduced leverage of modern financial institutions, distinguishing the current economic threats from the systemic failures of 2008.

• Negotiation Dynamics and Future Outlook

  Steve Eisman discusses the intricacies of trade negotiations, highlighting the difficulty in aligning multiple countries' interests and the potential for ongoing confrontations with China.

  "I don't know which which parts of manufacturing are going to come back and which are not." (Steve Eisman: 75:08)

  The hosts and Eisman explore scenarios ranging from immediate recessions to prolonged economic stagnation, influenced by geopolitical strategies and policy decisions.

6. Capital Markets and Investment Strategies

The discussion transitions to capital markets, focusing on gold, Bitcoin, and other investment vehicles as hedges against economic uncertainty.

• Gold as a Safe Haven

  Angela Rod advocates for gold's enduring appeal as a hedge, noting its consistent performance over decades. "If you haven't built a position yet, that's a good place to maybe start." (Angela Rod: 53:37)

• Bitcoin's Volatility and Unpredictability

  Steve Eisman remains skeptical about Bitcoin, questioning its alignment with investment theses and noting its inverse relationship with traditional markets. "I'm not long it and I'm not short." (Steve Eisman: 79:49)

  He underscores the importance of asset performance correlating with underlying investment rationales, which Bitcoin currently fails to demonstrate convincingly.

7. Interview with Steve Eisman: Lessons from the Past and Present

The highlight of the episode is the in-depth interview with Steve Eisman, where he draws lessons from the 2008 financial crisis and analyzes current economic threats.

• Comparing 2008 and Today

  Steve Eisman delineates the fundamental differences between the 2008 crisis and today's economic landscape. He attributes the 2008 meltdown to excessive leverage and complex financial instruments, factors that have been significantly mitigated today.

  "If there was no tariff thing I'd be very bullish." (Steve Eisman: 94:07)

• Investment Philosophy and Portfolio Management

  Eisman shares his investment approach, advocating for long-term positioning in sectors poised for growth, especially in the nascent stages of AI. He advises maintaining a balanced risk profile and emphasizes the importance of adaptability amidst geopolitical shifts.

  "I think if you stick it out, you'll make a lot of money." (Steve Eisman: 69:18)

• Global Reserve Currencies and Economic Stability

  Addressing concerns about the US dollar's dominance, Eisman argues that the lack of viable alternatives for short-term Treasuries underpins the dollar's enduring status as the world's reserve currency.

  "Banks are not going to park their money in Chinese bonds. There's no alternative." (Steve Eisman: 74:21)

8. Future Outlook and Strategies

As the episode nears its conclusion, the hosts discuss forthcoming earnings reports from major corporations and strategize on potential investment moves amidst the uncertain economic climate.

• Earnings Season and Market Predictions

  Ian Dunlap lists upcoming earnings reports from industry heavyweights like Tesla, Boeing, Intel, and Google, emphasizing the significance of these reports in shaping market sentiments.

• Investment Opportunities Amidst Uncertainty

  The hosts advocate for strategic investments in dominant companies like Nvidia, which are well-positioned to leverage advancements in AI and maintain market leadership despite short-term fluctuations.

  "There's not a number two. There really isn't." (Ian Dunlap: 103:56)

9. Conclusion: Navigating Through Economic Turbulence

The episode wraps up with a reaffirmation of cautious optimism, urging listeners to remain informed and strategic in their investment choices. The insights from Steve Eisman provide a grounded perspective, balancing historical lessons with present-day realities to navigate the complex economic landscape.

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Notable Quotes:

• "Unless you're getting it at a historic low... I don't think we've gotten there yet." — Angela Rod (08:17)

• "Nvidia's dominance right now is comparable to Microsoft run in the 90s." — Angela Rod (104:13)

• "Do I think a trade war would cause a recession? Absolutely." — Steve Eisman (64:02)

• "If you stick it out, you'll make a lot of money." — Steve Eisman (69:18)

• "There's not a number two. There really isn't." — Ian Dunlap (103:56)

Key Takeaways:

• Economic Resilience: Modern financial institutions have significantly reduced leverage since the 2008 crisis, mitigating the risk of a similar systemic collapse.

• Investment Strategy: Emphasis on long-term holdings in dominant tech companies, particularly those leading in AI and GPU sectors, like Nvidia.

• Capitalism's Challenges: Rising living costs and inflated pricing models pose sustainability concerns, potentially leading to consumer backlash and market realignment.

• Geopolitical Impacts: Ongoing US-China trade tensions continue to create economic uncertainty, influencing global supply chains and investment decisions.

• Market Sentiments: While short-term market behaviors may be volatile, underlying fundamentals suggest opportunities for strategic investments amidst the turbulence.

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For those interested in diving deeper into investment strategies and understanding the intricacies of the current economic landscape, Episode #255 of Market Mondays offers a comprehensive and insightful analysis, enriched by the expertise of Steve Eisman.

Transcript

[Ian Dunlap]

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[Rashad Bilal]

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[Ian Dunlap]

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[Rashad Bilal]

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[Steve Eisman]

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[Rashad Bilal]

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[Ian Dunlap]

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[Rashad Bilal]

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[Angela Rod]

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[Ian Dunlap]

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[Angela Rod]

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[Ian Dunlap]

What's the deal, y'all? Happy Monday.

[Angela Rod]

Happy Monday.

[Ian Dunlap]

It is Easter Monday. Shout out to all my West Indians who had the day off from school. Easter Monday is a real thing for sure. Yeah, shout out to everybody. And happy post Resurrection Sunday for those of Christian faith. Hosanna in the highest praise. And we back, man. It's Monday and a lot is going on. Like every, every day something's going on, man. This weekend didn't feel too crazy in terms of the stuff that the president had announced. But you know, leave it to Monday morning for him to go crazy on the Fed chair. So, yeah, got a lot to talk about, man.

[Angela Rod]

Great. Rashad, we may need your monologue cam back because it's ready.

[Ian Dunlap]

It's ready. Whatever needed.

[Angela Rod]

I got Rashad has a theory and listen, Oscar winning analysis. For real.

[Ian Dunlap]

I got the red button ready.

[Rashad Bilal]

A lot to talk about today for sure. This Thursday we have EYO episode 6 o'clock. Paul Espinosa. Great entrepreneurs actually invest fest last year and we're going to talk about systems. Very important.

[Angela Rod]

That's incredibly important.

[Rashad Bilal]

Very, very important for all your entrepreneurs out there. Wednesday we back for blackout.

[Ian Dunlap]

Sure.

[Rashad Bilal]

We'll have a lot of spicy topics per usual. Shout out to everybody that's been tapping in the blackout. Appreciate y'all.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, shout out to Angela Rod. That last week was dope. Yeah, yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

And Tuesday, tomorrow. Tomorrow. Do remember Detroit, Michigan? There's 20 tickets left. So we got a book tour. We got a book Stop. Tomorrow Tuesday in Detroit, Michigan. You can go to you deserve to be richbook.com to get your ticket. The price is like $40. That comes with a book. So you, you pay and you get an autographed copy of a book. We're gonna have Fireside chat. We're gonna have.

[Ian Dunlap]

You know, what's up, man. It's been a minute, man, since we got a cameo.

[Rashad Bilal]

What's the deal? So, yeah, that's tomorrow. And then New Haven, Connecticut, May 3rd.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

Tickets from you deserve to be richbook.com. so Detroit, Michigan, tomorrow, New Haven, Connecticut, May 3. And then Thursday we'll be in Richmond, Virginia.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yep.

[Rashad Bilal]

For the Big Dipper Summit. You can go to big dippersummit.com to get your tickets for that bigdippersummit.com third. This Thursday we will be in Richmond, Virginia.

[Ian Dunlap]

I thought you're gonna say in this weekend. Yo. Shout out to busy. Shout out to every everybody that is celebrating their birthday. It is our brother Terence J's birthday. Shout out to Terrence.

[Angela Rod]

Happy birthday, Terence.

[Ian Dunlap]

82 babies are in the house. More life, more blessings. My brother, just a solid dude since the day we've met him and really built a brotherhood with him. So shout out to him. And hopefully he's enjoyed his birthday today. Yeah. With his lovely fiance. Shout out to Terrence. His birthday was a couple weeks ago. We didn't give him a shout out. Shout out to P. Chard. Happy birthday, Zade. Happy birthday. Her birthday was yesterday.

[Angela Rod]

420.

[Ian Dunlap]

Everybody that participated in 420 or did the. The noble thing and said we gonna. We're gonna give them.

[Angela Rod]

We're gonna wait. Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

We're gonna chill on Easter. Yeah. Happy belated to Corey too. Corey birthday was last week.

[Ian Dunlap]

Happy birthday, man. Is it now tourist season officially?

[Angela Rod]

I think so.

[Ian Dunlap]

Is that what this is? Okay.

[Angela Rod]

I know what that old Taurus is. Stubborn, yo.

[Ian Dunlap]

I know what that means. Yeah. I know what that means. Yeah. Okay. Gotta get myself together. Okay. Got you.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

All right.

[Angela Rod]

This Wednesdays before blackout, 7pm we will have our Red Panda stock club call. I love y'all. Shout out to my family if I made you money. Please put yes in chat. I thought in video is never going to go down again. If you want to know where to get in, where to get out, how to profit from the market. To know when the market is going to drop before the rest of the world does. Go to Ian invest.com. shout out to my guy, Ernest and the warriors organization. I appreciate the hospitality last night. Shout out to Draymond GP Kaminga. Hold your head. Maybe we'll talk about on Blackout.

[Ian Dunlap]

You know what's. Yeah, what's. What's going on with them? Okay?

[Angela Rod]

They didn't renew coaching's decision.

[Ian Dunlap]

Okay.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

Gotcha. Gotcha.

[Rashad Bilal]

Disclaimer.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, Rashad, thank you.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah. Damn.

[Angela Rod]

Shout Steph.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, you know what, Ian? Shout out to you. Before we do that. Shout out to you. One of my co workers hit me and she's like, I got my price alert for Nvidia set at 89 with the master investor said, let's go. So shout out to you. And yeah, shout out to Red Panda. Shout out to Eylu. Everybody that pulled up on us at. For our class Thursday, which was dope. Shout out to Steph, who was going over technicals, who was just incredible with that. So, yeah, shout out to everybody that listened, learned, and took advantage. But y'all know how this works, man. This is our disclaimer. Do your own research. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with or independently research and verify any information that you find on our show and wish to rely upon whether for the purpose of making an investment decision or otherwise. You know how this works. Continue. Do the research. Share the research. When it's great show, love to the person you got it from. Let's make some money. Let's build community. Let's pull out some love, y'all. Let's do this.

[Angela Rod]

Shout out to Steve Kerr. Thank you. Relationships intact.

[Ian Dunlap]

Shout out to Jimmy Buckets, man.

[Angela Rod]

For sure.

[Ian Dunlap]

A real legend.

[Rashad Bilal]

So we got a lot to talk about today. We do have a special guest that will be joining us later on in the show. Steve Eisman, a legend. He was actually played by Pete Correll, Steve Carell in the movie Big Short. Okay, so he's one of the people that actually predicted the. The housing crisis of 2008, made a movie about him.

[Ian Dunlap]

Steve is from my area, man, so. Really?

[Rashad Bilal]

Okay, we're gonna be bringing him on in a little bit, but before we start that. Amd.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

Is it time to. To sell amd?

[Angela Rod]

AMD has historically been one of my favorite companies of all time. And before I was an Nvidia fanboy, AMD probably led that position. But I think it's time to have a conversation if it's time to cut loose. And I think, yes, if. If AMD gets to 53.16. I would then want to reposition in. But when I'm looking at an investment, of course I'm always looking at to build. Like you said, build a table. Right. So who are the four in that space? And if we're going to be honest, AMD is not on the Mount Rushmore of chip makers anymore. They have some considerable competition. I'm not sure say what.

[Ian Dunlap]

Who's about Rushmore is this route. That's like the thing now. Who's in Mount Rushmore?

[Angela Rod]

Nvidia. Tsm.

[Ian Dunlap]

Okay.

[Angela Rod]

Asml. Should I procon? For sure. Qualcomm. Okay.

[Ian Dunlap]

No, no. Oh, you said Qualcomm. I said Broadcom.

[Angela Rod]

Oh, Broadcon them too. Qualcomm better too if we're gonna be real.

[Ian Dunlap]

All right, cool. That's fair.

[Angela Rod]

AMD is entering, I don't want to say it, but intellish like territory of a bear drop. So if I look, they've had seven negative months.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

In a stock. So at this point, unless you're getting it at a historic low. Because now given the climate that we're in with the policies, tariffs, Trump versus Powell, the thing that is great about it is that we are entering generational buying opportunities. But I don't think we've gotten there yet. So 55, 16 is one level that I do like it. If it ever got to 25.82, I would probably put a considerable amount of money there. Mid six figures, probably. But as of right now, I would not lead into AMD until the market and global economy turns around.

[Ian Dunlap]

Well, I guess I gotta appreciate that. You didn't say they were dead. I appreciate it.

[Angela Rod]

We'll take that.

[Ian Dunlap]

Of course.

[Angela Rod]

No, no, not dead, just injured.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, this is, this is bearish territory over the past 12 months and I'll lead with this. Nvidia. Nvidia. Before I had a thousand shares in Nvidia, AMD was the company that was my thousand shares. I sold some probably when I think we got down to like 113, which was. All right, well, let's take profit. My buy in for everybody was 75. And we're, we're approaching 75 here. And it's interesting you said the 55 range, which is crazy because if you go out on the five year chart and you look at the trend line, it makes a lot of sense why you said that. Yeah, but yeah, it's below all of our emas that we talk about on market Mondays. Whether it's the 50 day, whether it's the 100 day, 200 day, on the yearly the 400 day moving average was 7876. And so we're like floating right above, well, 113. I'm sorry, on the one year, on the five year chart, check this out. Yeah, 400 EMA is 78, 76. And so we're talking back to 2021. And if you look at that chart you could be saying, all right, there's some room for optimism. Right. In 2021 when it hit this low level or it touched that 400 EMA, we saw a bounce up and then we still pull back in 2022. And so now we watched what happened in 2024 and that dropped now and we're about to hit the 400 day again. Is there an uptrend? Well, no, I would feel confident about it if there wasn't so much uncertainty around semiconductors and especially what the President is doing. I guess the only bright news and we kind of talked about a little bit is when we're talking about America first in terms of chips, they're the first company to step up and saying like we're going to be the first ones to make our GPU solely here in the United States. I don't know what that's going to when the GPU market, I mean it's going to be dominated by Nvidia for the next five years, they will be number two. And we kind of like talked about price points a little before we came on camera. That will be to me the only way that they can break ground in that race for GPUs is to have a price point that's affordable, that makes sense to small cap to new business startups in terms of GPU compute. So I still have the shares, I still have some calls for 2027 on them. So we'll see what happens in the next few months when in terms of the uncertainty with, with the semis, I know there's supposed to be a tariff coming on them, but yeah, if I'm doing it today, I like the level you said 78 would be a level that it's all right. Well you know what, if I haven't invested it before, this might be a good opportunity. But yeah, I can't see it going down to 25. Sure. If we get, if we get lower than 75 then we're dropping down to the 60s for sure.

[Angela Rod]

So Rashad, you want to go to your theory about you had to take.

[Ian Dunlap]

It a year about pricing? What? Let's go there. Yeah, let's go there.

[Angela Rod]

Well, let's see if he wants to because he may not like he wants to say what he's checking in my warriors.

[Rashad Bilal]

Well it's one of these things before we go to AMD. AMD's down 55.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yep. So it's bearish.

[Rashad Bilal]

It's beyond bearish. That's polar bearish. But also this goes back Kodiak for real. This goes back to the theory of individual stocks are very risky. It's not a good idea to invest in individual stocks. Even Ian when he says like two text to index, it's only two stocks. It's extremely dangerous to invest in individual stocks because even if every like Facebook we've seen two stocks go up and come down historically Facebook back to. Damn near back to his 52 week low. If it's continued this trend for another week, Tesla, we saw that skyrocket. So it's like even a good company, you never know. Economic environment, political environment. It's safer to invest in an index fund or etf. It's just, it's, it's you, you're playing a very dangerous game when you're putting money in the individual stocks. Especially substantial amount of money. Yeah, that's not, that's dangerous. And AMD is a company that yeah, it's just down damn near 60%. That's dangerous. Right. Like if you have a lot of money in there or if you trade in. Because if you trade in you're going to lose more. So I think that this is highlights that if you want the chips. Smh. SMH not is not down as much as that. Right. Like it's just a safer way to go about it. And the number one rule is safety first. Like you gotta, you gotta play defense. You always got to play defense. So we'll see what happens with amd. But yeah, it's dangerous times right now.

[Angela Rod]

That we're in and the operating margin is 7% which is. That's tough abysmal for this space.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, it's tough when you compare it to Nvidia which is the other competitor inside the GPU space and their operating margin is 55. That's tough. But even in inside of SMH. And again shout out to everybody's in the class. We broke down those legs that table that you're going to stand on. So you look at, I mean Even in 2020 when we looked at SMH and its holdings, AMD was like number one. Sometimes it was two.

[Rashad Bilal]

Two.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

It currently sits in the eighth spot in allocation in SMH.

[Angela Rod]

In a playing game in a hottest sector in the world.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah. So here are the companies that are in front of it inside the smh, etf, Intel, Texas Instruments, Qualcomm, asml, Broadcom, tsm, Nvidia, Micron is, is right there. So AMD is eighth and Micron is ninth. And those percentages might change soon. Soon as well. And so you can see inside of the etf, that allocation, if the stock is performing, they're going to reallocate the ETF for you.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah, we'll see. And then like even Meta. Meta is down 34 and has done nothing wrong.

[Angela Rod]

Like I want to be very clear because I criticize a couple years, they haven't done anything wrong in three weeks.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah. On the, on the flip side of being historically having 21 days of growth inside of a company and you're like, wait, this is on the other end of it.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

Be careful after contributing to the campaign. That's a house in dc.

[Rashad Bilal]

That's a fact. So.

[Angela Rod]

And you can argue outside of Netflix, this has been the best media run of a modern media company probably ever. Their operating margin, 42. They got 81 gross margin.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, but I mean damn near a flawless media business.

[Angela Rod]

Right.

[Ian Dunlap]

Well, that's the problem, right. If you're looking at are companies growing, right. Are their revenues growing, but their stock is falling.

[Angela Rod]

Engagement is people using the ad platform more than ever. What if I told you five years ago that like people would spend more time on the app than they do with their family and on TV? You would think this stock would be up 4 or 500%, 300% year over year and they have WhatsApp at a steel. What? Yeah, that's an interesting environment.

[Rashad Bilal]

Q. Q. Q. Shout out to Invesco.

[Angela Rod]

Shout out to Invesco.

[Ian Dunlap]

Shout out to Invesco.

[Rashad Bilal]

If you're interested in technology, that's a, that's a pathway.

[Angela Rod]

Invest in.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah, invest with invest. That is a fact. But okay, so here's the thing with this, okay. The segue for this because, yeah, qqq, you got Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

Google, Tesla. Tesla's in trouble. We'll talk about.

[Ian Dunlap]

And inside of qqq, just to add to that, it's more equal weighted. Right. So when you see like XLK where Apple and Microsoft were 20%, 20% inside of Q. Q. Q. Is more equal weighted where it's 9%, 9%, 9%, 10% inside of.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, it's equal distribution.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, that max 7.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah. What is the real price of products? That's what we were talking about off camera And I think that this whole tariff thing is really starting to make people question everything. Like, you see China and you know what's popular now is furniture. And they're showing in furniture, they're showing furniture and they're showing like handbags and clothing items, how much they actually cost to make and how much they're actually selling for in China. And it's pretty eye opening to say the least, right? So then it's like, okay, well if I can get a kitchen, closet, bathroom, whatever, for one tenth of the cost of America right now you start to say, okay, well what is the, what is the real price of variety of different things in society? We know that, okay, Jordans are inflated and handbags are inflated, but nobody really ever asked the question of like, how much is how much does a car really cost and how much, what's the real market value of a car, right? Because that's what China is really doing is like they're starting to make you question the whole capitalistic society that we live in in America, where there's no guardrails and greed has just led to such a markup on prices, it's almost unstained, unsustainable, while wages have stayed the same, right? Inflation goes up while wages have stayed the same. And nobody really questions it because we don't really have any alternatives. What are you going to do? Not buy a car. What are you going to do? Not live in a house. What are you going to do? Not buy this laptop, right? But when you start to actually peel back the layers now, you start to see things and you start to say, damn, this makes you requestion everything, right? It makes you requestion, like, why am I paying a hundred thousand dollars for a car? Why am I paying $120,000 for my bathroom? Why am I paying $10,000? Even like the luxury items like a bag, that's a choice. But some things are just like hard cost. Like you don't think about like that, stuff like that, right? And it's like, wait a minute, like, has capitalism run amok to the point where it has to be reeled in with some level of high transparency alternatives and guardrails. That's what China's really saying. Like, look, yes, we, we have a society that's built on communism. And you say that communism is so bad, but we raised more people out of poverty in the last 30 years in, in human history.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

Based on, based on collective. Even Charlie Munger. Charlie Munger, he had a great speech I saw on TikTok where he was Saying that China did something that's really never been done in world history where they built their, they built their country's economy in a very short period of time by collective like savings. It wasn't done through oligarchs and it wasn't done through, you know, industry. It was done through millions of poor people truly believing in the system, collectively saving, pulling their money together and moving up. And he was saying that that was something that he, he in his opinion had never really been done. It kind of was a new model in society. But I think that we talk about stocks a lot, but you got to start to talk about the whole entire economic system and is this something that is not sustainable?

[Angela Rod]

It's broken for sure, it's broken. We were talking offline but like their cars six years ago that were 30 or $40,000 that are now 110, like back in the day a hundred thousand dollar car was a super luxury car. Now there are some sedans that are going for 80 and 90,000. We've talked about the cost of living, that's high, cost of daycare, cost of education, while the return on college education for many specialties have declined dramatically. And also too, if we're going to pay a 200% increase over five years, I don't see a 200 increase in the level of care whether it's in hospitals or daycare or education or just even in the products. And given this tariff situation. Oh and this economic calamity that we're in, I think it is going to cause everyone to look and see what can we do better for sure.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah. Part of it. How much of it is the belief system like were kind of talking about? Right. It's just a belief that we believe is worth that. So if you're looking at the Rolls Royce or you're looking at, you know, high end Mercedes, are you looking at Alexis? You do you believe it's that value and that's the price they're going to put on it? Right.

[Angela Rod]

Do we believe a Rolls Royce Cullinan or Ghost Specter is worth $600,000?

[Ian Dunlap]

Somebody's gonna pay it.

[Rashad Bilal]

Well, I think it's too, I think it's the, the luxury item.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

Because even like Birkin, even though people know Burkham now technically should cost eleven hundred dollars, they're still going to pay whatever for it because those people can afford luxury items I think are different from essential items. Essential items is like a microwave, right. Like we don't really have a choice but to buy a mic. Nobody's really buying luxury microwaves. Right. But let's just say hypothetically the price that we're paying for, let's say the price that we're paying for a microwave.

[Ian Dunlap]

Is check back in six months.

[Rashad Bilal]

No, I'm just saying for the most part.

[Ian Dunlap]

I know what you're saying.

[Angela Rod]

At scale, I get you, we're go to Louisville.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah, of course there are high end microwaves, but for the most part, yeah, you're gonna go to Walmart, you're gonna go to Target. The average American is not looking at a microwave as a luxury item. It's looking at like it's an essential item that you need to warm up food.

[Angela Rod]

Right.

[Rashad Bilal]

But what if, what if, what if we realize that these microwaves and I'm just saying hypothetical, I haven't done the research, but what if we realize these microwaves are actually 90 markup? Right. That makes you question like then we're getting taken advantage of, of things like you can choose to buy Louis Vuitton, you can't really choose to buy a variety of other things that you just have to have. And if everything in society is marked up well, that could lead to a.

[Angela Rod]

Rebellion if the prices have gone up exorbitantly. And you know, it's bad when business owners are saying, okay, these markups are too much on both sides of the island in all industries. It's like the pricing scales have changed too much where it's unsustainable as a country. And then of course that leads to record credit card debt which is not being talked about enough. So yeah, I think it changes foreclosures for sure.

[Ian Dunlap]

Is that, is that a solution though? If you, if you, in terms of gauging, is there, is there a threshold that potentially could be put in place where it's like you can't go over this threshold, you can't put a 98 markup because in terms of business, right. When you think about hypothetically what is business, you're going to have a product, you're going to put a surcharge on it because you had to produce that product at a certain number. You want to make a profit for sure. But is there or do we need to come up one with one that makes sense for an economy so that there isn't a revolution really?

[Angela Rod]

I mean, I think that's where regulation comes in. And I'm not like the hugest person, I'm being like regulate everything down to where it's like you only make 20% profit margin. But I think even some of the essential items have now been priced as luxuries, so. And I think it'll get so bad where if you don't morally start to give back, I. E. Target, you're going to get shellacked in the market. I don't know how you look meeting with Al Sharpton went, but as a community we're upset. You better fix something. Are you gonna be running off the stock market like Xander's did in the background? So I think some changes need to be made for sure. Because like no one wants to say it, but the country is collapsing at scale and in many areas and for the first time in our lifetimes, other countries look like a better alternative to shop from and live in.

[Rashad Bilal]

And it's not a democracy. And that's the thing that people fully need to understand too. America does a great job with marketing and words are important. When you hit the term oligarchs, you think of Russia and you think of a repressive regime that's, you know, a few people are ruling and that's not fair. When you think of the royal family, the Saudi royal family, you think of the same thing. You think of billionaires that have the say over the people and the people have no rights. Well, what do you think we have in America? Right? You got nine of the 10 richest people in the world that live in America that have firsthand access with the government, with the president. They might not have the title of a royal family, they might not have the title of a oligarch. That's exactly what they are.

[Angela Rod]

Absolutely. Like we witnessed in real time and this happened in the Democratic Party, but it looked like the White House or parts of it were up for sale perhaps.

[Ian Dunlap]

Allegedly.

[Angela Rod]

Allegedly.

[Ian Dunlap]

Right.

[Angela Rod]

And it says one republic, not one democracy.

[Ian Dunlap]

So you said the economy is collapsing. How much of it is? This feels very self inflicted, for sure. How much weight do you put on that? Like who's in charge in the decisions that have been made over the past three to four months? Right?

[Angela Rod]

MAGA supporters clip this up. I know he gets a lot of blame, but I think he put the final stick on top of the stack that broke the camel's back. America's been on the house of cards for a long period of time. And this is why one of the reasons we can't afford a recession, because it then unveils a lot of unscrupulous activities in a bunch of industries at one time. So this is just the first of the propaganda pushback from China. But I think what a lot of countries, they'll probably follow suit, but then It'll start to be revealed what health care costs are in other places. I know a lot of people that are traveling to other countries now for dental and certain surgeries. Absolutely.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, yeah.

[Angela Rod]

And it's a lot more efficient too. Like even in Japan, like the healthcare regime, there are people that are traveling there two weeks and getting all their labs, all their blood work done. And now with AI being added into. I saw the report where like there could be a cure for all major illnesses within the next 20 years. But the fight is what country would get the patents to those cures. We're in interesting time. And more than anything, I think America as a country has been too short sighted because of the four year cycle. Just like the three month reporting cycle in the stock market. I think it's a mistake focusing four years on a time on how to run a country. It does not lead to long term planning because other countries are thinking 100 years at a time. Minimum.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah. All those, like how long has this guy been presidency? China? He's, he's been there forever.

[Ian Dunlap]

Sound good?

[Rashad Bilal]

Feel like it? Feels like it.

[Angela Rod]

How long has Putin been there?

[Rashad Bilal]

Yahoo's been there for like 27 years now. Is this democracy like he, when he, he hasn't left yet?

[Angela Rod]

Well, the people have voted him back in time and time again. Right, rashad? Same with Putin.

[Rashad Bilal]

99.

[Angela Rod]

Relevancy score.

[Rashad Bilal]

Allegedly.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, he's been there since 2013. Who's this?

[Rashad Bilal]

China.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

That's a long, that's 12 years. You need 10 years to really make some change. Like you said four years. Because what happens after two years, especially in America, two years, they start running the new cycle.

[Angela Rod]

You got to campaign again.

[Rashad Bilal]

You're really only president for two years to really get everything that you need done. Because then you got the midterm elections and usually it's going to be an opposite party that comes in at the midterm.

[Ian Dunlap]

That's going to become.

[Rashad Bilal]

So you got, you got 24 months to try to get things done and.

[Ian Dunlap]

Make a bunch of executive orders.

[Rashad Bilal]

And that's why nothing, that's why nothing gets done. Okay.

[Angela Rod]

Average cost for microwave to your point is somewhere between 75 and $135 according to chat GPT.

[Rashad Bilal]

Chat gbt.

[Ian Dunlap]

Then we gonna go to Amazon and get it for 60.

[Angela Rod]

I'm gonna undercut your cost until I put you out of business. Then I'm selling for 290.

[Ian Dunlap]

Not as game goes, man, I gotta tell you how to go.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah. And then the data behind it. Oh, data is a new oil. Appreciate you and now if I create a lookalike audience or similar review and AI with that.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, yeah. Once you hit the microwave, they're gonna sell you the vacuum.

[Angela Rod]

Gotcha, gotcha.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah. And we got to talk about real estate at some point too. We're on the verge of a real estate collapse, Rashad.

[Angela Rod]

We're turning to the doom and gloom report. Shout out to all. Oh my God, you guys are so negative now. I'm like, no, this is called actual reporting and investigative research.

[Rashad Bilal]

What happens, what happens when it's not? When it doesn't go up? Real estate always goes up until it doesn't fall of an empire.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah. And I wonder with the fight about raising interest rates if quantitative easing will be used again in these next five or six years. Because if not, we may have a flat decade like my. One of my favorite exercises. Everyone in chat GPT. What would the returns for the tech market be if quantitative easing was not put into effect for that 12 or 13 year cycle? It would have been too tech, too oil if it wasn't for quantitative reason. Save the day. Like if we're gonna be very honest, in flat years the Ballmer went through without that free capital, the landscape will look dramatically different. It was needed at the time, but I think we probably had QE for a little bit too long as well.

[Rashad Bilal]

Talking about investing, Tesla, Will Tesla hit $1,000 per share? Is that something that could potentially happen in the future? There's a lot of calls inside of a test like some top Tesla investors for Elon to step down. Told you so what's the deal with Tesla?

[Angela Rod]

Will it hit a thousand? I love Kathy and but no. Unless. Remember when we had the conversation about should it be a luxury car brand or should it sell to the middle and profit margin concerns and everyone's like no. The word to scale automotive. See it's through low pricing. It has not worked out for majority of car brands. Great exercise. Go look at how many car brands that sold a low price vehicle. How many of them went out of business in the last 40 years. The salute didn't help even though he was giving out his care Bear love to everyone. No, I don't see Tesla hitting a thousand anytime in these next four or five years. Even with the relationship that he has with the president and in that office. Unless they get new leadership. And I'm gonna be very honest, Tesla had a moment where it was like Takashi was the new hot thing and it was like this may work. Despite those Teslas don't look as attractive as they used to. And I told someone this over the weekend, if you just compare BYD vs Tesla head up and you took the logos off of them, the BYD cars look way better.

[Rashad Bilal]

They're cap. Tesla's are cabs. Every Uber is a Tesla.

[Angela Rod]

And once they got reclassified the yellow.

[Rashad Bilal]

Cabs, at this point, that's who they are. No, but I'm saying if you get an Uber, nine times out of ten, it's a Tesla.

[Angela Rod]

A Tesla. Unless it's the one with the little gulf wings. Other than that.

[Rashad Bilal]

Or the cyber truck.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, other than that. Yeah. And one of the things that I used to have a lot of pushback on was not upset in certain audiences. And I'm like, but what's the risk to reward ratio? Like him doing that and having that moment, was it worth the valuation that he lost? No, it's not. Now, is it still a leading American brand? Yes. But is there too much risk on the table for it to get to a thousand bucks? Absolutely. I, I don't see it within the next four or five years. And I've been long Tesla for at least six years. It's still in Xander's portfolio to this day. But I don't see the upside potential for it to get to a thousand or even 700 bucks. You have to be beloved amongst the fund of funds. The pinch, like right now, could you put Tesla inside of a pension fund to fund if you were like running a fund for.

[Rashad Bilal]

And, and this thing about it is that people have to stop saying that Tesla is a tech company, It's a.

[Angela Rod]

Car company with some tech in it.

[Rashad Bilal]

89 of his revenue comes from automotive. He's trying to do robotics, I'm trying to do all this other stuff. Tesla at its core is a car company. And it's, it's, it's losing its competitive edge in automotive space. And he's trying to divert attention by doing robots and no focus on what's important. And they're losing that battle. China is, is a major market for it. They're going to lose China completely eventually. When China mandates that you have to buy the electric car through electric car companies, they are not selling as many cars as they were before. He's tarnished the brand dramatically. They have a lot of problems when it comes to selling cars. And that's what they are. A car company.

[Ian Dunlap]

Well, that they get put in the growth category because of the technology. Right. So it becomes autonomous driving, becomes the, the robotics, it becomes the AI agents. The interesting part is like, yeah, if we can't see and go into a thousand in five years. Let's think short term because earnings season kicks off pretty much this week. They report tomorrow. We heard all those. Everything you just said I was going to mention. Do they drop sub 200 here right. When we're talking about. Yes, the China market decreased. BYD has taken over that. They've dropped 18 there. We've seen the domestic sales have gone down for the first time. We saw them at 479 in December. They're down here about 224. Are we looking sub 200 by the end of the week?

[Angela Rod]

I mean is it should more than likely ultimate price? Well, I would like to get them at is 125 27. But could they be sub 200? They could be sub 200 possibly by Wednesday. So net profit margin is 7.3% when the net profit in 2023 was 15.5%. So you don't want degradation of your brand when you do a SWOT analysis and you put weaknesses and threats. You usually don't want to have a country that is upset with you and then you don't want to upset the majority of your base as well while the profit margin is going down.

[Ian Dunlap]

Right.

[Angela Rod]

So everyone in the comments, this is not our take on something. I want y'all to stop talking about takes and look at the fact if they had a profit margin of 15 or 25% that would be great. But he's not delivering on them robots or that autonomous dream. He's been exactly. All that is out of here.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yo, that's supposed to happen in June. We'll see what happens with that. But you, you take into the fact with, with tariffs and that's going to affect them for sure. You take into the fact where you drive the price of some of these vehicles and then those vehicles don't sell. So you miss, you're missing profit margin in and then the affordable vehicle that you're going to put out, you've now delayed. So like all these signs don't point to something that's positive. But we've seen this before and that's the tricky thing. Like we've seen this before with, with Tesla. Everything is mounted against it and then the stock performs after earnings. I don't know if that happened.

[Angela Rod]

Was there quantitative easing during those times.

[Ian Dunlap]

Or not even like two quarters ago this happened and it was like wait, how? And they were like, oh, the robotics that's supposed to come out next year and it was like fake news. Exactly. And but it. Investors believed in it. And that's the crazy part.

[Rashad Bilal]

You're only gonna have so many tricks up your sleeve until you realize that you bluffing all robots. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. What do you have right now today, robots and autonomous driving and 18 wheelers that drive themselves. None of that is happening right now.

[Angela Rod]

He made an autonomous baby making factory to the moon, my boy.

[Rashad Bilal]

He's selling, he's selling promises of things that may never happen. What is, what is the currently happening right now is concerning when he has.

[Angela Rod]

Grok, which is a great product and let's not forget that open AI got stolen from him as well. So there's some tech promise that could have been implemented inside autonomous job is happening.

[Rashad Bilal]

But he also stole Tesla. Yeah, no, he stole it. He brought in. He brought in the company for $6 million. Then he did an aggressive takeover and forced the, the founders out.

[Ian Dunlap]

They bought it?

[Rashad Bilal]

No, he had an aggressive hostile take. Call it a hostile takeover. He had a hostile takeover but prior to that he's an investor.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

So he stole Tesla. Yeah, allegedly.

[Ian Dunlap]

Allegedly, yeah.

[Angela Rod]

A raider. He was a financial raider.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah. No, I said some of the things ours is like the robotics. Like again, the price for that. Who, who is your client that is going to facilitate that type of revenue that you're going to need from that type of robotics. The autonomous driving thing is real. Like they have that now. We're starting to see more especially in Atlanta. We see it. San Francisco, we see it. Will that spread domestically? Who knows? Having a partnership with the Uber makes sense obviously for the reason that you just said like every time you see it, you call the Uber and it's, it's a regular one. It's going to be a Tesla that picks you up. How long will drivers not be in those cars? We don't know. Right. But right now, the way things look, this looks like it's going to be a negative report. We'll see what happens.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

Tomorrow after close.

[Angela Rod]

And in that robotic space, they have a hell of a competitor in General Dynamics. Nowhere near close like they are. And their stock is still doing incredibly well at 271 last year had a high of 316. Quiet company most of the the Terminator ask looking robots. That's their technology and actually works.

[Rashad Bilal]

Barbarians at the Gate is a movie that everybody should see that explains what we call corporate takeover artist that actually documented the 88 leverage buyout of RJ Nabisco. I think the lead character in that movie is Danny DeVito and it shows you how sophisticated Wall street insiders, investors come in and they take over companies.

[Angela Rod]

Private equity by force.

[Rashad Bilal]

It happens. It's a real thing.

[Angela Rod]

Carl Icon was a lot of it doesn't get talked about but one of the reasons why Apple ended up being a favorite publicly traded company was because of his involvement with it.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah. Create the board, board may vote you out.

[Rashad Bilal]

So Elon, back to Elon. He's not traditionally an innovator. So this is when you have to start innovating. The only car that he ever designed was a cybertruck and that's the most recalled car in American history. He never designed the Model S. He didn't design the model T. He designed the cyber car. That's his baby. As the most recalled car in American history.

[Ian Dunlap]

Wow. I can't say he's never innovated with the innovate in terms of Starlink. Well that. But before PayPal was what it was, that was a combination of companies coming together. Peter too. No, but there was two companies that came together to form PayPal. So he was innovative in those days. Has he been innovative?

[Angela Rod]

But, but he wasn't an Alpha in that PayPal. So that gets revised.

[Rashad Bilal]

He wasn't the brains behind the operation.

[Ian Dunlap]

I didn't say he was the brains, I said he was. He was innovating.

[Rashad Bilal]

As far as a creator.

[Ian Dunlap]

A creative product.

[Rashad Bilal]

A creative. A creator. He's not a great creative. He's not a great creative.

[Angela Rod]

Oh he created a lot these last six years.

[Rashad Bilal]

Some of the last one he said he wasn't even sure. You don't even know if that's his creation.

[Ian Dunlap]

Could be a legend. Could be. Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah. So hopefully they, they write these wrongs and make the company better. But I said maybe six months ago here go to being chairman and that's. This won't even be his main focus. I got a lot of pushback. I'ma say it in the comments and I know y'all don't like when I get on my little rants. Stop pushing back on a space that you did not know about prior to five years ago.

[Ian Dunlap]

We'll see. We gotta see the talk charging stations and chart the rechargeable batteries. It's kind of down, down. Died down a bit.

[Angela Rod]

The solar.

[Rashad Bilal]

You know, say all that. All that is just. Well he's just saying anything. Solar panels. Oh yeah. They, they're not a, they're a tech company because they have solar panels. Didn't work out. They're gonna have robots, they're gonna have self driving cars, they're gonna have people all Great ideas. It not happening. Yes, he's. He's coming up with all these ideas and none of them are happening.

[Angela Rod]

But I will say out of that portfolio, Starlink is the brightest star in that portfolio galaxy.

[Rashad Bilal]

And he's gonna ruin that by. By his actions. He already lost 200 billion through Carlos.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

When he aggravated him and he canceled all his contracts in Mexico. It's only a matter of time before he pisses people off globally.

[Ian Dunlap]

We gotta say SpaceX as well. We'll see. Government funding. Gotta call it those people.

[Rashad Bilal]

And he's gonna hurt himself with that because there's gonna. At some point in time, it's going to be a democratic regime that comes in.

[Ian Dunlap]

That's what I said. The government funding might look different.

[Rashad Bilal]

They're gonna have. They're gonna have revenge payback for what he did.

[Angela Rod]

He can go do what Zuckerberg did. Just go buy a house out there and go get some money and say I'm sorry.

[Rashad Bilal]

And it didn't work for Zuckerberg. He still got to go to. He's in court right now. I know.

[Angela Rod]

Shout out to my boy. My God.

[Rashad Bilal]

He still got to go in front of the court. Okay, before our guest comes on, let's talk about Jerome Powell. Okay, so Trump has attacked him. Friday. He attacked him. Jerome Powell spoke on. On Thursday, I believe, or Thursday or Friday, and he pretty much said that, you know, tariffs would definitely lead to inflation and tariffs would lead to a slow growth in the economy. I guess Trump didn't like that too much, called them Mr. Too Late and now he doubled down on, called him a major loser, said it's time for him to retire. Can't wait for him.

[Angela Rod]

Now.

[Rashad Bilal]

I heard that he's even pursuing. He's. He's examinating ways that they could potentially get rid of him because, you know, they really can't get rid of him unless it's like gross negligence.

[Ian Dunlap]

Is that examinating? That's a new one.

[Angela Rod]

Examining.

[Rashad Bilal]

He's sleeping.

[Angela Rod]

It's okay. I got you.

[Ian Dunlap]

Right?

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah, you have.

[Ian Dunlap]

It.

[Rashad Bilal]

Says they may or they may not cut rates. He hasn't committed. Trump wants a commitment and he wants it to happen as soon as possible. Is that something that's going to happen or. And is that even something that could be helpful? Because some people said that could actually be even more harmful to the economy.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, this is above my pay grade for sure. I know I may have hubris when it comes to the stock market, but these issues are outside of my class, if you will. I feel for Jerome Powell because You can either pause rates cautiously or cut aggressively. Both are going to have negative reverberations in the marketplace. And the. The part that's really interesting is if I'm him and I'm planning, let's say I wanted to pause rates with leadership changing course every two weeks. I can't even plan on course correct. Like, I can't tell the world, okay, I'm bringing interest rates down to 2%, and I'm a, okay, hard landing, but in two years, it'll be fine. And in two weeks, they change course on tariffs or policies, which way may thwart my plan and then make me look like the bad guy. So he's in an unwinning position. It's almost the equivalent of, like, athletes who have to play for a coach. Different coach every year.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

Like, it reminds me of the Devin Booker situation early in his career where he was, like, rotating through coaches. So he's in an unwinnable position. But one thing that I've learned, and I picked this up from you guys, like, there is a high alpha and high return on just having peace amongst partnership. There's no way he can have this much clashing with Drone Powell and expect the American economy to do well. It's like me going to a banker and cussing the banker. I'm like, well, let me deposit my money. I'm for sure ending up on that list, and I won't be able to fill out that withdrawal slip no more. So I'm not sure what they should do here, but I know this course of action is not best, but what do you guys think?

[Ian Dunlap]

I think. I mean, it goes back to the lack of planning. I think the. The tariffs obviously have stifled the economy globally and definitely here domestically. And, you know, whether it was a suspension and you saw a lot of retail and institutional investors, like, all right, a slight cat bounce in. In the market. And now it's like, well, I'm gonna keep these things in, but I need a new play. Like, I need something that's going to give investors some sense of relief. And I'll bully my way into talking to the Fed, making the Fed chair try to do what I say. Right? And it hasn't really worked because Jerome Powell had a plan. Like, he was on pace. And we debated this for two years about, yeah, landing the soft landing, but.

[Angela Rod]

He was on track. We have to give him credit.

[Ian Dunlap]

He was. It was. It was right there. He was right on pace to have this soft landing. He already had in place two rate cuts this year. And now because of the uncertainty that the market has faced over the past three months, it's like you're almost in a position position where it's like, do you try to help out the economy by lowering rates while this guy's like saying, like, I should have fired you yesterday knowing that you can't fire him. It's an independent position. Right. Like as a Fed chair. But like the pressure of that. Right. It almost makes his legions of people and believers and like, this is the reason, like, this is happening. You're the reason that eggs are causing this way. You're the reason why unemployment is going to go up. You're the reason for inflation. And they're not really educated on how this really works. And so that pressure of every day now until something happens and him going and tweeting negatively about him, it. It doesn't make sense. But none of it makes sense. Right.

[Rashad Bilal]

Well, Josh Brown actually said something that was pretty insightful when he was saying that. Next up to lot. I forget his name, but the next person up to line is. Is Trump's best friend. It's his son in law.

[Ian Dunlap]

So Jared Kushner.

[Rashad Bilal]

No. Oh, not. It's Trump's son in law. It's Trump's best friend.

[Ian Dunlap]

Oh, okay.

[Rashad Bilal]

That's the next person up to line for the, for the Fed chair. So.

[Ian Dunlap]

Oh, okay.

[Rashad Bilal]

He's pushing to try to get him out as soon as possible because he knows that the next, the next Fed chair is going to be in pocket. Pretty much paraphrasing. It's going to be friendly to the Trump administration. They have close family ties and he can pretty much get what he wants out of that situation. He thinks because of the family relationship that he has with the father and the whole, the whole situation.

[Ian Dunlap]

So the goal becomes put as much pressure on him to hopefully he resign.

[Steve Eisman]

Yes.

[Rashad Bilal]

Or try to kick him out. I mean, Trump, I think anything is possible with Trump. They're going to try to see if they can find a way. I mean, they've already gone against federal law and they've gone against Supreme Court orders in the past. So is not out of the realm of possibility for him to say, you're fired.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

The only thing that they can say is that there's no, there's no recourse for you to do that. All right, well, sue me. In the meantime. I'm gonna put somebody else in. I'm gonna use my presidential power. I'm sure there's some kind of, you know, mandate that happened in 1640 or she's gonna just do Some kind of thing where it's like, okay, I'm gonna use my presidential power, the state of emergency and I'm gonna, I'm gonna take you out and put him in. And then if there's a problem, then have the Supreme Court take it up with me. And if the Supreme Court tells me that I'm wrong, then I'm not gonna listen to them because I don't listen to the Supreme Court anyway.

[Ian Dunlap]

So I think then the guy that they have rumored is Kevin Wash to replace him. So they said, they said they started interviews last week to replace the Fed chair. My God, Jerome.

[Rashad Bilal]

So we'll see, we'll see. But okay. Also, let's talk about gold. Gold, all time highs, not really too surprising being that you know, it's a hedge. When people are nervous about what's going on in the world and especially since the decline in the dollar. We'll talk, we'll talk about that with our guests. But are we seeing a legitimate long term breakout for gold or it's just a temporary hub while people figure things out?

[Angela Rod]

If we look back, a lot of these positions start to be built around 2019 when a lot of investors knew something was going to come into market and it's been steadily rising ever since then. But if you go back even further, Even back to the 0102 climate and or stock market kerfuffle that we had at the time, a lot of the, the gold bugs at the time were saying it's the best way to hedge and that's been over 20 something years. I don't know about the reports of gold going to 9,000 and all that over three or four years. I think that's a little bit misleading. But I think this, we have been in a long term bull run for gold and I think it's going to continue, especially with all the uncertainty that there is in the market. I know we talk a lot about hyper concentration and whether it's good or not to put money into like a singular stock. But on a commodity side, if you're holding for long term to offset this is like the one part of the all weather portfolio that Ray Dalio talks about that I absolutely do agree with. So if you could get a chance to get in maybe at 3115, if you haven't built a position yet, that's a good place to maybe start. But I would definitely look to hold this for five, six or seven years where we have a bunch of turmoil. And during that 0708 run, gold did incredibly well as well for those of you who worry about a recession.

[Steve Eisman]

Go.

[Ian Dunlap]

To for those who they're gonna be like how do I invest in Gold? Gold ETFs.

[Angela Rod]

Or you can go to Johnny Jane Leonte this summer.

[Ian Dunlap]

I may gotta call some people.

[Angela Rod]

Hey, what y'all got me call y'all guy real quick. Gold bullion bars and I'm gonna give me a safe from China to put it in. So. But yeah, God is a good option but. And for my traders, you know the gold feature for short term trades are good as well.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah, yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

Oh man. Oh, I know a dude named Johnny. Dang.

[Rashad Bilal]

It's done better than bitcoin and. And the S P 500.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yes, it has. Yes, it is.

[Angela Rod]

Financial conspirator. Hey, shout out to my guy.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yes it has.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, it's done incredibly well over the long term. 2005 it was at 41 bucks. It's now at 314 and been a safe haven. A homework assignment. What is the average yearly drawdown of gold going back to taking a risk off the table. That's the most important thing in relationships. Business relationships. Investments, products. Like if you have a recall on that cyber truck like that, the risk is it's not going to work the way that it should. As advertised, not good for business. The marketing campaign was great. But if the recall is. I didn't know that. The highest in American history.

[Ian Dunlap]

They put that thing in front of the White House, remember then work.

[Rashad Bilal]

It's not, it's not, it's not going to happen for the cyber truck.

[Angela Rod]

No.

[Rashad Bilal]

You had, it had a spark when it started. Hello.

[Angela Rod]

Hello.

[Rashad Bilal]

ASML has experienced approximately 23 down weeks over the past year. Is this a hiccup for the company or did they hit their peak in 2024?

[Angela Rod]

I don't think they've hit their peak. I just think that the global backdrop of what's going on and there's so much, and I know you guys hate when we do this, but there's so much that we can't say that I want to say. But I think a lot of these companies are trying to figure out who's going to be in the number one position going forward for the next 50 years and they're going to shift their business priorities to set countries or whatever version of bricks that is created. I think ASML is a very good buy. Definitely better than AMD for sure. If it got to for 86, 15, I'll probably load the boat there. I think that would be a generational buying opportunity. But I just Think that the global backdrop and everything that we're going through worldwide has put a lot of pressure on them.

[Ian Dunlap]

So yeah, this is a, a measure of uncertainty for sure. What they do, what place they stand in the supply chain of all semiconductors, specifically the ones that are created through UAVs. The, the ultra violet lithographic machines. And so if the demand of GPUs goes down, then the demand to create the machines that make those gpus will go down.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

And the manufacturing of those GPUs will go down. And the price point. We talked about pricing, but this is one of those things. When you look at the sales, there was growth from year to year. I know they just reported last week with tsm, but the, if you look at what they did in 2023 compared to what they did in 2024, I think they moved in the last quarter they moved 66 units. Right? Yeah, that sounds like. All right, that's great. Well how many did they do in 2024? Fourth quarter did 73. So there's an uptick. The problem is that they expected it to be more with the demand of AI and the demand of GPUs. The issue is the price point for these machines for average cost. No joke. For one, the average cost for a, you, a EUV lithographic machine is between 183 million to 380 million dollars. So you show me how many companies can afford to have one of those units.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, right.

[Ian Dunlap]

Can the TSM do it? Yeah, right. Can, can, can they afford to use them for their machinery? Yeah, but there's not many. And so if we see uncertainty around semiconductors, how we're going to be using them, the output of it. We saw what Deep Seat did and that's going to have an impact on, on the asml. But they run a monopoly. Allegedly. I'm saying this because I don't want. There's a lot of companies, mag 7 companies that are going to court, allegedly they have a monopoly on the space because if they don't make the machines. Yeah. I'm can't manufacture them. Which means that AMD will have nobody to manufacture it for it to put it out. Broadcom as well. And all of them pretty much. If they're going to move to, to the, the lithography that ASML produces, which is where the future is headed in terms of how small you can put, how much you can put on a gpu, which means that the nanometers have to be anywhere between five and lower. Right, let's talk that there Might be two, but then after that you're going to quantum computing. And so. Not that I don't think it's their peak. The uncertainty around the space is what's caused them to have some of these negative weeks. But we'll see, we'll see over the next two to two to three years. I, I still love them. That's why I think they're necessary in the space.

[Angela Rod]

Meanwhile, Huawei readies a new AI chip for mass shipment as China seeks to fill the void caused by Nvidia.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, so Nvidia somehow. The. Somehow, somehow Hopper ended up in China. We don't. We're not really sure how that happened, but there was a fine that had to be paid and Nvidia was hit with a five billion dollar fee, which they said they would do. But the next day after that was announced, CEO Jensen Wong was. Was in Beijing. Coincidence? I think not.

[Angela Rod]

Going back to my Amazon point. Revenue by country. 13 in China, 16 in Taiwan, 14 in Singapore. So if one of our best companies is shipping the best product and we're only getting about 47% of said technology, if it was us, we'd be deported. Allegedly. No, that's revenue by.

[Ian Dunlap]

According to their report, I'm saying shipping to that company.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, yeah, it flew over there.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, it got there. So that their thing has always been, if we can't sell you this product, whether it's, well, Hopper's got there, but if it's Blackwell or Blackwell Ultra or Ruben. Or Ruben, if we can't, then let's figure out what product we can make specifically for you that we can sell to you. Right. So if. Because again, that is crazy, you guys, you said that like the administration may change in four years. It might be different. Right. So you, you're already preparing products for the next five, 10 years. If we can create a product now and when things may change, we'll have those ready to you available. We'll see what happens. But that business is global. And so I, I get why he goes. Because he's looking at like nothing's going to stop us. We're going to create a product that they're going to be able to buy.

[Angela Rod]

Movie Lords of War, I think with Nicholas Cage about selling arms came to mind. Homework assignment. Go watch this weekend. Must be two sides.

[Ian Dunlap]

That was. That's a great, that's a great parallel.

[Angela Rod]

Very interesting times we're in. And all of the great new AI apps are not coming out of the Netherlands or South Africa. They're just popping up all through China. While Getting our tech. But what do I know? What do I know?

[Rashad Bilal]

Okay, how far can bitcoin fall during a recession?

[Angela Rod]

Bitcoin won't fall ever. Shout out to my bitcoin maxes. I'm a weaponizer audience. I am interested to see how it sustains, but I don't think. Well, it hasn't performed as well as it could have. But if we get to a recession, maybe high 40s, maybe like 47, 000 something in that range. But I don't think, I know people wanted to fall back to 30,000 and 20,000. I don't think we'll ever get back to those levels given those influence that the institutions have. And out of Michael Saylor can save the day. So I think high 40s, maybe 39 at the lowest. But I think during a recession, this will be bought a lot faster than that 22 drop for sure. So.

[Rashad Bilal]

Okay. Well, without further ado, we have a guest that has just joined us.

[Angela Rod]

Yes, bring them up.

[Rashad Bilal]

How's it going?

[Angela Rod]

Hi, how are you?

[Steve Eisman]

Pretty good.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yes, yes, thank you for joining us. Steve, we talked about you earlier in the show, but legendary investor. You know, obviously a lot of people might know you from that movie that got a lot of attention, the Big Short.

[Angela Rod]

Short. One of my favorites, for sure.

[Rashad Bilal]

2008, you were one of the people, the few people that actually predict the housing market crash and variety of other things. I believe that you used to work for Newborn Berman as an analyst and now you have a podcast. So, you know, been a voice in the markets for decades. So first and foremost, thank you for joining us. Appreciate it.

[Steve Eisman]

Thank you for having me.

[Rashad Bilal]

So, yeah, a couple of questions being that you predicted the Big short, right? In 2008, you. You kind of forecasted that. Do you see parallels in today's economy? I know that that's something that a lot of people are nervous about as far as a recession is one thing, but perhaps even something bigger than that. That's what some people are actually, you know, predicting. Do you see parallels and are you bearish now? The same way you were bearish then?

[Steve Eisman]

Do I see some parallels? Sure, I see some parallels. Am I as bearish as I was then? Not even close. I mean, not even the same universe. So let me just elaborate a little bit about that. Do I think that there could be a global trade war? Sure, it's possible. It's also possible that there won't be a global trade war. Do I think that a trade war would cause a recession? Absolutely. I think a trade war would cause a Recession. Do I think a recession that could happen because of the trade war would be a financial calamity on the same order as the great financial crisis of 2008? Not even close. Not even in the same universe. You know what happened in 2008? If you could boil down the financial crisis of 2008 into a paragraph, it would be great financial crisis happened for four reasons. Large financial institutions had way too much leverage. A big asset class, subprime mortgages, blew up. Those same large financial institutions owned a lot of subprime mortgages and derivatives, in particular, credit default swaps, which is a very technical financial instrument, tied the balance sheets of large financial institutions all over the globe into a spider web that was so complicated, nobody knew where it began and where it ended. That's the cause of it. The reason why that was such a calamity is, look, if General Motors, God forbid, went bankrupt, let's just say, and the government didn't bail it out and it was liquidated, that would obviously be terrible for General Motors. It would be terrible for all the employees who got laid off and all the companies that supply stuff to General Motors, maybe some of them would go bankrupt. They would certainly have problems. Maybe that would cause a recession in the United States. Possible, but that's all that would happen. But if you can't get your money out of the bank, if the large financial institutions go down, Planet Earth burns. That's the end. So where are we today? Post Dodd Frank. The leverage of large banks is literally less than, than half of what it was. It's probably almost two thirds less. That's enormous. So, for example, Citigroup, which used to be levered officially 35 to 1, but added up all the stuff that didn't officially show up on its balance sheet, but they were responsible for. It was 40 to 1. Today it's 12 to 1. That's like the distance between Mercury and Pluto to blow up a bank that's levered 40 to 1. If I could use an analogy. Takes a pebble. Develop a bank that delivered 12 to 1. Takes a meteor. So do I think that whatever President Trump is doing could potentially cause a global recession? Sure, it's possible. Do I think that would cause a financial crisis that would cause the banks to go down? Not at all.

[Ian Dunlap]

Looking at the, the, the state of the economy now, right, that we look at global trade, did it need to be changed? Yes. Did it need to be blown up? I mean, there's, there's plenty of skeptics on that. I wonder when, as you look at it. What do you think would have been the most effective way to get some tr. Some of these trade solutions from country to country or from a global standpoint.

[Steve Eisman]

This may be a little bit controversial. I don't completely disagree with what President Trump has done in terms of imposing tariffs to get the ball rolling, because I think if you went to any country and said, look, we don't like the terms of trade, let's talk, they'd laugh at you. They'd say, go away. The only way you're going to get people to change the terms of trade is to put a bazooka to their heads. What I don't like is the chaos. The we're in and we're out. We're out, then we're in. We're, here's our towers and then there's our towers. We're taking it away, we're putting it back. That, that causes too much. That's, that's, that's not my, that's not my strategy. You know, by. President Trump loves, loves chaos, but everybody, most people in the world don't. So that's where I would disagree.

[Angela Rod]

If you were building your big short portfolio today, what's the one trade that looks almost inevitable to you that will pan out over the next four or five years?

[Steve Eisman]

I have no trade that I think would pan out within the next year.

[Angela Rod]

Okay, what about four to five?

[Steve Eisman]

Four to five? I still think that most of the technology traits that people have, you know, whether it's in video or Microsoft, any of the well known will. Will be great because I think we are still in the very, very early innings of AI. Very early innings, like inning one.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Steve Eisman]

So, you know, between now and inning nine, it's going to be a bit of an adventure. But I think if you stick it out, you'll make a lot of money. What's going to happen within the next six months because of all the trade negotiations, I wouldn't have a clue. And I just would say you need to keep your risk lower. I wouldn't try to be, I would not try and be a hero right now. I don't think some people would argue that the markets come down a lot, so valuations are better and well, of course the market's lower, the valuations look better. That's the tautology. The problem is that if you go into a global recession, all the earnings estimates are going to come lower, so then it doesn't look so cheap. On the other hand, if most of the countries settle with the United States and then everything is Fine. It'll have been a great time to buy, but I can't handicap that.

[Angela Rod]

How much risk are you keeping on the table? If I may follow up, in my.

[Steve Eisman]

Own personal portfolio, I have about 15% cash right now.

[Angela Rod]

Okay.

[Steve Eisman]

Which is a lot for me.

[Rashad Bilal]

Are you very.

[Steve Eisman]

I'm very. Long term, what I have done is I've gone through my personal portfolio and any stocks where I said, do I really love this? Why do I really own this?

[Angela Rod]

Let's trim a little.

[Steve Eisman]

Is there any thesis creep, get rid of it. That was the first thing I did. Then I took a lot of things just lower. But like I said, on long term, the problem with let's say liquidating your portfolio if you wanted to go to an extreme is you got to pay over 35% capital gains taxes. Do I think the market's going to go down 35%? I mean, it could. If we have a global recession, it's not impossible, but it's a lot. So I'd rather just trim some risk and just sit on the sidelines and sit and wait till it's. And look, if things get better, if you miss the first 5% move, so what, you know, if things, if all the trade stuff gets settled one way or another, you know, it'll be a bull market again for years. So who cares if you miss the first week?

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah, the dollar is, I think it hit a three year low. Is that something that's concerning to you?

[Steve Eisman]

You know, let's, let's do the doomsday scenario that some people like to paint. So the doomsday scenario would be like the US Deficit is too big. People are not going to see U.S. bonds as the safety vehicles that they once were. So they're going to sell the U.S. bonds. And that of course causes the dollar to go down and something else will replace the dollar as a reserve currency and there goes the United States is a great empire and it's Armageddon and cats and dogs are lying together and whatever else happens in Armageddon, depending upon your religion. But I think what people don't. And by the way, that thesis has only been around for 40 years. So I remember in the 90s, Pete Peterson, who had been one of the founders, I think of kkr, was talking about how the deficit's way too big and it's a disaster and God help us, et cetera. And that was in the 90s and here we are, 2025. We're all still pretty healthy. What I think people miss. And by the way, I can't Talk what happens short term to the dollar, what happens short term to people. Trading in bonds is not something that particularly interest to me. So the fact that the dollar has sold off has I think got a lot more to do with hedge funds repositioning, de risking, looking for safe havens. But long term, what I think most people don't recognize is that the financial system of planet Earth runs on Treasuries. Banks for example, lend to one another overnight in what's called the repo market. And the repo market is only trillions and it's all at overnight Treasuries. So to make an argument that the dollar is going to lose its reserve status, I think you have to make an argument that there's going to be some sort of substitute for Treasuries, especially short term Treasuries. And right now there's no substitute for short term Treasuries. I mean banks are not going to park their money in Chinese bonds. They're not going. There's no euro bond of any real significance. There's no alternative. So as long as there's no alternative, it's not something I particularly worry about all that much. Even though people like to talk about it on CNBC and paint doom and gloom. I predicted doom and gloom once. Once was enough. I'm not interested in predicting doom and gloom again unless I really, really seriously pre thought it was possible.

[Ian Dunlap]

That's good news to hear. You brought up AI. You said we're in the, you know, potentially the first inning. There's been a lot of talk about bringing supply chain back to America. You saw a lot of the investment in AI from a lot of the Max 7 TSM included about bringing data centers and things of that nature to America. I want to get your thoughts on the idea of manufacturing production happening here. Companies like Apple come to mind when you think how is it possible? Will we be able to afford that type of labor, that cheap labor and to have the level of production long term and for the short term? How does a company like that even combat in that environment where it's like it's going to take five to 10 years to build that here, to even get that up and running. What are your thoughts around that bringing the supply chain back?

[Steve Eisman]

Well, I think some of the supply chain was already coming back to the United States post Covid because look, the supply chain, the global supply chain was created over a 30, 40 year period. Very efficient, very cheap and it turns out very brittle. And we learned, we learned that in Covid. So some of the Supply chain was actually coming back here to begin with. Because if you're, I mean, think of it this way. If you're the CEO of a company, some, some type of manufacturing company and your supply chain completely broke down during COVID the board's not going to didn't blame you because nobody predicted Covid. But you only get one bite out of that Apple. If something were to happen and you didn't have a supply chain, again, that's your job. You're out. So I think some of the supply chain was coming back. How much more of the supply chain? I mean, do I think we're going to make Apple phones in the United States? States? Probably not. You know, I think maybe they move the whole thing to India. Do I think more manufacturing will come back to the United States? I do. You know what parts of manufacturing. I mean, let's drop a list and we could discuss it for a couple hours. So I don't know. I don't know which which parts of manufacturing are going to come back and which are not. I just don't. I know that some will.

[Angela Rod]

What are your top three favorite global macro indicators or technical indicators to know when you should be looking to enter a position?

[Steve Eisman]

Well, that's a small question. I actually don't think of it that way. You know, one of the things that I've learned over the years is this is my opinion. I don't think that there's only one way to value stocks. You know, some people do, some people think you just do some sort of discounted cash flow model. I actually hate that method.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, I do too.

[Steve Eisman]

But I don't, I don't think that there's. What I do think is that there are 11 sectors in the S and P and each sector has subsectors and every one of those sectors or important subsectors has a mafia. And what I mean by that is the people who are the experts in the area who traffic in this area almost exclusively or semi exclusively, and that audience is usually composed of sell side analysts, buy side analysts, and certain portfolio managers who really have real expertise in the area. Now I know this for a fact because for a very long time I was chairman of the financial services mafia. And each mafia determines two things. Number one, what are the terms of debate in terms of what should we look at to determine whether our sector is going to do well or do bad and what are the valuation parameters that we care about? Banks, for example, are valued on a price to tangible book value. Tech stocks are valued on some combination of pe Cash flow, ebitda, discounted cash flow, it depends on the company. So I operate within the terms each sector. I'm not going to convince people, it's very difficult to convince the mafia that they were completely wrong about how they should view their sector and how to value the sector. So take lending companies for example. The two most important variables are the yield curve and more importantly credit quality. What are the credit trends? That's what I look at, that's what I care about. Other sectors, you know, there's, if it's a subscription based model and software people care about how big is the potential tam, the total addressable market and what are the trends in terms of subscriptions. So each, each sector is different. I don't have, you know, one global variable that I look at unless I'm worried that there's going to be some type of a bad recession.

[Rashad Bilal]

What are your thoughts on Bitcoin and other digital assets as far as long term potential?

[Steve Eisman]

Another small question. Let's talk about the Yankees. It'd be easier. I don't play Bitcoin at all. I'm not long it and I'm not short. And the reason why I'm not long it or shorted is that no one has ever been able to my satisfaction, been able to answer one very, very important question.

[Angela Rod]

Okay, what's that?

[Steve Eisman]

Which is why should I own it?

[Angela Rod]

Store value?

[Steve Eisman]

I'm coming to that. Okay, don't jump the gun. I'm going to answer the question. So the people who consider themselves experts in Bitcoin, if you were to ask them why should I own Bitcoin, I think the answer you would most frequently get would be something like over the last couple of decades there's been way too much government debt. So the value of fiat currency, which anyone out who doesn't know what that is, which are most people, fiat currency is government created currency, which is every currency other than Bitcoin, etc. So fiat currency has been debased is the argument. And you want to own an asset that will do well as that debasement continues. And the problem with let's say shorting the dollar is currencies all trade relative to one another. You just can't go out and short the dollar. You have to go out, let's say in short, the dollar relative to the euro or the dollar relative to the yen and they all stink. According to this thesis, the dollar is just probably a little bit better than the rest of them. So if you want to hedge against basically all of these currencies, Buy Bitcoin or some other digital currency. As far as I can tell, that's the major thesis that they propagate. So my response to that is, okay, if that's the case, then how should Bitcoin act? In other words, if your thesis is right, then on days where people are worried about inflation, they're worried about the economy, Nasdaq is down huge, et cetera, et cetera, Bitcoin should go up. And on days where everybody's rocking and rolling and risk is on And Nvidia is up 5% and Microsoft is up 4, 3%. And every risky tech stock you ever heard of or didn't hear of was up 7 or 8%. Bitcoin should be down. And that's not how it acts. It acts exactly opposite. In other words, on days when NASDAQ is up a lot, the correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin is very high. It tends to be about 60 to 70%. So the asset acts opposite to its own thesis. And I don't know what to do about that. I was talking to a friend of mine. I said, imagine if I had a thesis as to I'll pick up a financial company, Capital One credit card company. Let's say my thesis was the yield curve is going to steepen. I'm predicting the yield curve is going to steepen, credit quality is going to get better, Capital One's asset earnings are going to growth rate is going to increase, and the stock should go up 30%. That's my thesis. And let's say the yield curve steepens, credit quality gets better, Capital One's earnings go up and the stock goes down 30%. I'd say to myself, I don't know what I'm doing. I clearly don't understand this stock. So the problem I have with Bitcoin, again, is that it acts, as far as I can tell, opposite to the majority thesis as people hold it whole, who own it, propagate. And I don't know what to make of that. That's why I don't own Bitcoin.

[Ian Dunlap]

That's a lot. All right, so it was a big question. Yankees and Mets, who finished.

[Steve Eisman]

I don't have an opinion. That's too hard for me, Bitcoin.

[Ian Dunlap]

So I want to go to this. So this global trade war kind of boils down to, you know, US versus China. And so China has put out a recent statement, if anybody tries to negotiate with them, there'll be tariffs. And it's kind of like what we've done to other countries, right? To isolate China. Best case scenario, right? How do you think this plays out? Right, we know what can happen on the worst case scenario. But in the best case scenario, how do you see this playing out?

[Steve Eisman]

Okay, so let's put some numbers to this just so everybody's on the same page. The percentage of US GDP that comes from exports is 11%. That is the lowest number of just about any country in the world. The way to think about it is we are the most insular economy of any developed country. If you were to Google what percentage of China's GDP comes from exports, it would say 19%. But that's not really true because China ships a lot of things to Vietnam and Cambodia, etc. Which then makes its way into the world so they can avoid some of the tariffs. My guess is that 30% of China's GDP comes from export. If you look at Europe, any major country in Europe is over 30%, with the exception of Germany, which is over 40. Canada is at 35 and Mexico is at 35. And of that 35, 25 points out of that, 35 is just exports to the US in terms of just playing poker, who holds more cards? That's the United States. Because our GDP is less dependent upon exports than anybody else. That's the first thing just to say. So then what conclusions can you draw from that? I think the major conclusions that you can draw are, number one, the US Is in the best position to negotiate a deal with anyone. Number two, if everybody's rational, they will try and cut as as good a deal as possible at the United States as they can. However, to quote the great philosopher Reacher from the Amazon Prime Show, Reacher, in any investigation, the details matter. And in any trade negotiation, the details matter. So let me just give you an example of why this is so much more complicated than just everybody just being rational, which is why I can't handicap it. So the European Commission, before President Trump made that announcement a couple weeks ago, on that Wednesday where he imposed all those tariffs, the European Commission, this is public information, came to the Trump administration said we will cut tariffs to zero throughout Europe. And the Trump administration said that's not good enough. And the reason why that's not good enough, there are all these other restrictions throughout Europe that make it difficult for the US to get certain types of goods into Europe, like agricultural goods, for example, or champagne in France. As far as I can tell, the European Commission only has authority to negotiate tariffs. The rest, anything important to any particular country that country has. Like, let's, let's, for example, The European Commission wanted to reduce all agricultural barriers of our stuff going into Europe. France has an effective veto of that because. And there's nothing the European Commission can do about that. So my suspicion is that Mexico and Canada will cut some sort of deal with the United States because they really don't have a choice. 25% of your GDP comes from exports to the US. There's not a whole hell lot you can do. I think the UK will cut a deal. I think a lot of Asian countries will cut a deal. Europe will be very much on a case by case basis. So it's very hard to tell. And we in China are going to go head to head for a while and then I don't know what's going to happen. That's how I see this playing out.

[Angela Rod]

I have a question for you in the big short, like, what's one story you wish would have been included and what's one thing that maybe they didn't get exactly right, that you kind of want to tell the history of today?

[Steve Eisman]

Let's see, I'm sorry, ask the first question again.

[Angela Rod]

What's one thing they may have left out that you wish would have been included, maybe in your analysis or trades or.

[Steve Eisman]

There's a good story. I'll just, I'll, I'll. I'll tell you a story that I thought was a good story, but it wasn't in the movie. It was sort of in the movie, but they did it differently. I wish they had done exactly as it happened. So on Lehman went bankrupt Sunday, I think it was September 14th, and then on Tuesday, AIG collapsed. And on Friday I was at a conference meeting potential investors. And basically the world was imploding, literally. Bonds weren't trading. My trader and partner, Danny Moses was having an anxiety attack. And I got a call from my partners to say, Danny's having an anxiety attack, we're getting out of here.

[Ian Dunlap]

And.

[Steve Eisman]

And I told him, go to St. Patrick's Cathedral, we'll sit on the steps. So I turned to the investors who I was in front of. I said, listen, there's too much crap going on in this world. I gotta go. And I left and we were sitting on the steps of St Patrick's it was a gorgeous day. And I think I turned to one of my partners and I said, these poor people, they have absolutely no idea the calamity that's about to unfold on.

[Rashad Bilal]

Top of their heads.

[Steve Eisman]

So I wish that had been in the movie, but it wasn't in the movie. And which part did they get Wrong was your question?

[Angela Rod]

Yes.

[Steve Eisman]

The movie pretty much got it all right. I mean, I was kind of that crazy back then and that angry. And I thought that was captured really well. And, you know, he simplified certain things because they had to be simplified. But I think the movie really captured that period of my life pretty accurately.

[Rashad Bilal]

Talking about the big short during that time frame, was it a one aha moment where everything came together for you, where you was like, this thing is about to fall apart, or did it happen over the course of time?

[Steve Eisman]

Combination of both. So, you know, we were short subprime paper, which is all these securities loans that are securitized subprime loans. And there's a database. Basically every single subprime or every single securitization does a data dump every month. Comes out kind of like over a two day period during the middle of the month where every securitization will require report every single credit statistic. 30 day, 60 day, 90 day delinquencies, real estate owned losses, you name it. Whatever possible credit statistic there is, you got it reported. It's the most granular consumer loan data in the world. And that was like the Bible. And every month we would look at, we would be very religious and we would read our Bible. And so every month the data kept getting a lot worse, except for a very short period of time in the spring of 07 because people got tax refunds. But other than that, the data just kept getting worse and worse and worse until it was very clear that this is not good. And then I guess the moment when I knew it was like, okay, this is it in terms of the subprime mortgage part was it was August of 07, and my family and I were vacationing on the island of Nantucket. And we usually go there for two weeks. We rent that little house. And in the second week we were. The mortgage market was imploding in that time. And I remember one day in the second week we were walking and my wife turns to me and she says, stephen, where are all the men? I said, oh, they went back to New York to watch the end. That's when I knew it was over. By the way, one thing that's never usually said, the financial crisis, as far as I was concerned, was baked by August 2007. Now, the crisis itself actually took place in the fall of 2008. But by then there was nothing any of these companies, any. Anything Wall street could have done to stop it. Because they owned all this stuff.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

As you're talking, it feels like there's optimism. Obviously the what was going on with tariffs is, is causing uncertainty in the market now. But at some point when there's some certainty around it or some clarity or deals are made, the outlook for the economy including the housing market. Right. Because. Because we've seen potential credit card debt getting higher. We already know what our national debt is. What are your outlook for the economy in the next year or so?

[Steve Eisman]

I mean look, if there was no tariff thing I'd be very bullish. Credit quality, the banks will just reported credit quality was fine, it was very stable. People like to point out to the increase in credit card debt. Just an absolute number. To me that's not important. The thing to watch is the actual credit statistics and as long as delinquencies are they're low, they're flattish. I don't find there's any cause for concern. If there was a problem Start terminology you will see it in that data.

[Ian Dunlap]

What is the percentage of delinquency that it would raise alarm for you?

[Angela Rod]

Great question.

[Steve Eisman]

That's a good question. It's not an absolute level. I would have to see a pretty steady increase month to month. That's when you start to see it. What are we? We're in April. So if May is worse than April and June is worse than May, this is what happened in 07. Every month just got worse. Then you know there's a problem. If it's just seasonal stuff and it's just bouncing around, it's nothing to worry about.

[Angela Rod]

30 year treasuries haven't made a new high since 2020. What the hell is going on with that bomb market? I've asked every investor and trader that I know. I don't want to be an alarmist but do you think we'll have a turnaround at some point? And why do you think we haven't hit a high and in almost five years?

[Steve Eisman]

Look, I think there's short term trading and there's long term training. I think, I think right now you're dealing with very short term stuff where people are just de risking and so they're selling, they're probably on the stock side people are selling some stocks and on the bond side they're selling long term Treasuries and they're probably, maybe they're buying short term Treasuries or something else. Tomorrow if they announce some sort of deal it would all reverse. Do I think there's a problem? Look, do I think China is going to sell all of its long term Treasuries? I mean they Could. Where would they put their money? Yeah, that's sort of the problem. You know, if you're big money, you know, the Chinese government, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, some enormous pension fund, and you can only invest so much money in stocks when you're that big because it's not liquid enough. You need to buy bonds. That's where big money parks its money. And if you're going to buy anything of duration, you're going to buy Treasuries until there's an alternative. So what's happened to our Treasuries of late, I think is short term, de risking that people are doing okay.

[Rashad Bilal]

Steve, thank you for your time. Great conversation. And yeah, your podcast is out now, right?

[Steve Eisman]

Yes, it's called the Eisman Playbook. New one just dropped today, discussing why the German economy doesn't grow anymore.

[Angela Rod]

That's a good one. Okay.

[Ian Dunlap]

Some Automotives, it's called.

[Steve Eisman]

It's based on a. It's an interview with a guy who wrote a book, the title of which is Kaput. One of the best titles I ever heard. I. I gotta get this guy on my show because anybody who come with which I got such a gutsy title deserves to be interviewed for sure.

[Ian Dunlap]

Fair warning.

[Rashad Bilal]

Well, thank you. Thank you again. Appreciate your time.

[Steve Eisman]

Thank you.

[Angela Rod]

Thank you so much. I appreciate you.

[Rashad Bilal]

There you have it, ladies and gentlemen.

[Angela Rod]

Amazing conversation with the legend.

[Ian Dunlap]

That's a legend, man.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

Learned a lot, man, for sure. I think the, the most important thing I, I took from it was his level of optimism. He's called doomsday before and he doesn't see a forecast of it in the near future. So, yeah, that was good news.

[Rashad Bilal]

Cautiously optimistic. Yeah, yeah, cautiously. Because even if you listen to what he said about China, he's like, you know, everybody's gonna work their deals out and then the US and China is going to be at it a long time. That's not encouraging.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, but that gdp, and we spoke about it the first day about the importance of the GDP and our level. That was that little tidbit he threw in and like, yeah, it says 19, but they ship things off to other countries.

[Angela Rod]

It's the nuance in the numbers. I know people say men lie, numbers don't. There's some line for sure.

[Ian Dunlap]

I hadn't even thought of it like that, but. Ah, that makes sense. That makes a lot of sense. And I wonder how many other countries they're actually using to offset some of those tariffs. That, that would be interesting to find out. Not that we would, but it would be interesting.

[Rashad Bilal]

Yeah. Oh, go ahead.

[Angela Rod]

No, no, go ahead.

[Rashad Bilal]

No, no, go ahead.

[Angela Rod]

No, go ahead, brother.

[Rashad Bilal]

I was about in video, I'm switch topic. So if you want to follow up with what he said.

[Angela Rod]

Okay. I think for everyone who's in love with the lore of the big short that being hyper bullish is the new big short trade. Great. I think he expressed that well tonight. Whether it's. Well, I mean he's not pro bitcoin, but if you are in the bitcoin community, you think that has value, stay long that if you think tech is going to work out to stay bullish on that. I think the desire to catch the top of a market and all those factors that led to the world almost falling apart, they're not here now. Despite how bad the tariff situation may be. So I would be remiss if I didn't bring that up because everyone wants to recreate that. Even with Michael Burry like his return was 500. Not knocking that because that's an amazing return, especially for that time. But it's a lot easier to get 500 of your portfolio to the upside holding for a three or four year period if you layer your investments and trades.

[Ian Dunlap]

Right? Yeah. And you finally got an answer on your bond market.

[Angela Rod]

Finally. I want the off the cuff at the bar answer though. I need the 08 answer. Yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

So okay. Nvidia talk about the 5 billion dollar hit. So he said that AI is still in the beginning stages. Some people think that AI is the bubble is about to pop. So Nvidia, you know, slow down as far as the stock price is concerned. For sure.

[Angela Rod]

Yep.

[Rashad Bilal]

What does this say?

[Angela Rod]

It's never going to go back to 95 and 80. I'm telling 89 is coming soon. I think going back to his de risking part or conversation, I think some people just take a risk off the table. But with Nvidia, even in lieu of that 5 billion dollar penalty, I was selling stock club. Same with Amazon. If you're hedging like we talk about hedging a portfolio, we don't often talking about hedging our investment with other countries. I think Nvidia and Amazon has done the best. It's almost impossible for them to lose. Not saying that Nvidia is getting the hopper chips there intentionally, etc. Right. But if they are there and then we're getting deep seek and Manus, thank you for the invitation but I will not be uploading any information on my IP or my Internet browser anytime soon. How can you win if you have the two biggest countries vying for Your interest, Nvidia is like the pretty girl new, like the new pretty girl at the school that everybody wants their attention of. So the days of getting a 3, 400 return in one year I think may be over but it's still one of the best companies on earth. And I think they primed or heads their position well enough in the market and amongst both countries that matter the most to make sure that they do well either way.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, they are primed to dominate. They have dominated. What we have seen here, I mean almost from a year to date is consolidation which is good for sure out of the stock. If you look at where it was In April, literally April 21st of last year, it was at 95.44.

[Angela Rod]

Yep.

[Ian Dunlap]

And we hit 95.44 today. And so that, that in terms if you look at a long scale scope of this, this is consolidation which usually means all right, we're going to settle here, we're going to have some sellers and people are going to take profit. But there's usually an upside especially when you're inside of a space that you are the dominant force. 87 of GPUs are coming from Nvidia. They've already showed us the road map for it. If he's saying we're at the beginning stages of AI, which a lot of people we think we are, then this is where, this is where you park the car at right here and you just wait and you get it at a good price and you hold it long term. It's primed. It's primed. And we'll see over the next few weeks what it'll the first quarter earnings will be looking like. Yeah but like I said, we were at gtc. We saw what the outlook looks like for the future. We saw.

[Angela Rod]

Yep.

[Ian Dunlap]

And there, I mean we've said it before. I'm say it again. There's not a number two. There really isn't. And until that that competitor can crack.

[Angela Rod]

A dent, it's not there.

[Ian Dunlap]

They've got free reign in terms of AI compute. So yeah, I love them here, I love them here. I've loved them when they would at a 127 pre split.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

And I love them all the way up to 1100. So 95, I mean this is no brainers.

[Angela Rod]

I hate to do the comparison thing because when I did it with Square I got in trouble. But Nvidia's dominance right now is comparable to Microsoft run in the 90s. Like you have people that are orbiting for that number one spot but they have no close competitors. Market cap is 2.3 trillion. Gross margin 75 net margin is 55.85 profit for a trillion dollar company. Most small businesses don't have 55% net margin.

[Ian Dunlap]

And that's a 80. That's an $800 billion decrease from where it was.

[Angela Rod]

Yes. Return on equity 119%. Just like. And if the sliders were on 2K, it would be 105. Like, it would go over. Yeah. So amazing company. So. And also too like perfect hedge for both continents as well. Perfect.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah. We're gonna work with both. We're gonna work with both at 5.5.

[Angela Rod]

To bring in 555 billion is a good risk to reward ratio.

[Rashad Bilal]

So Trump's approval rating on the economy dropped to the lowest of his presidential career. Right now. Will this matter or will he continue to do what Trump does and, you know, forge his way through? You know, I think that approval ratings are not too much of a concern for him. He only has one more term left unless he tries to run for a third term. So I don't think that he's too concerned about approval approval ratings.

[Angela Rod]

What do you think? You running for president in 28.

[Rashad Bilal]

So he's isolated himself as far as his inner circle and I think that he has some level of, he's out of touch with reality. I don't want to say dementia because I'm not sure if he actually has full blown dementia, but I do think that he, he has some level of narcissism that has.

[Angela Rod]

We can't put that word on everybody because they do it to us.

[Rashad Bilal]

Well, I think that he definitely.

[Angela Rod]

Just me and you, Rashad, just really mean you.

[Rashad Bilal]

Embodies. He embodies.

[Ian Dunlap]

Thanks for the clarity.

[Rashad Bilal]

He embodies some, some form of that. So I don't think that. I think he's always going to find a way to blame somebody else.

[Angela Rod]

Very true.

[Rashad Bilal]

Or point the finger or say it's not true or say it's fake news or have his own studies done that show different support or go places where he knows he's going to be championed. So. And then he has a strong support base. No matter what. That I think is going to support him no matter what happens. And I think that he has a theory in his brain that what he's doing is correct, that, you know, he's fighting the good fight. And I don't, I don't think that he's going to pivot direction off of that.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, I agree. Same with Elon, I think. Right ideas like, I think the autonomous vehicle Robotic idea is a great idea. Poor execution. Same with the tariffs. The negotiation tactic. Right idea on paper, I think the execution was just incredibly sloppy.

[Ian Dunlap]

So. Yeah, I, I like what you said. Oh, go ahead. You wasn't finished.

[Angela Rod]

No, no, go ahead.

[Ian Dunlap]

I like what you said. I think that, that part about who will I put the blame on next?

[Angela Rod]

Just like Obama.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, the, the buckies. I mean you can keep bringing up Joe Biden and you can keep bringing up like you've already won that race. That was the best here. It's just about when I have this idea and I throw it out there and it doesn't work. Rather than saying like this was self inflicted, rather than saying that we caused this, rather than saying like, hey, I might have made a mistake here. Who can I point this at now? Like approval ratings don't matter. You can approve or not. He's gonna be the president. So it could be a 2% approval rating. Who cares?

[Angela Rod]

That would be insane. But when it was high, he cared about it.

[Ian Dunlap]

And I thought he's, it's not going to change the fact that he's still the president.

[Rashad Bilal]

And I don't think he's going. I don't think he cares about the stock market either. So I do think, well, he hasn't done anything.

[Ian Dunlap]

He said it's doing great.

[Rashad Bilal]

He hasn't done anything as of yet. Even when he did the reversal, that was more so for bonds than stocks for sure. So I, I don't think that. Well, of course everybody's together. I don't think that that's a major deterrent for him.

[Angela Rod]

Like, oh yeah, you're right, the stock.

[Rashad Bilal]

Market is flat for two years. I don't think that he won't give a damn. He's not gonna like, you know, reverse course just because the stock market is flat for two years. So great buying opportunity during down markets for sure. But this could be a prolonged situation.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah. I think the era of maybe like a quick turnaround like covet because all the stimulus money that was printed. I don't think we're. It reminds me a little bit of like that when Barmo was CEO of Microsoft, four things would just be flat for a few years and then now you get a chance to build your base and it may not feel good while the market is in this contraction period. But it's interesting. Oh, of all, all of you who kept asking me, should I buy inverse etf? No, I don't think most have the skill set to pull that off. And the market isn't down enough to do so. So be careful of that. Like, maybe if the VIX gets to, like $12 and 78 cent, maybe then. But you have to exit when the VIX gets back up to 25 or 47.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

Most people shouldn't do that.

[Ian Dunlap]

You got to be precise, and you got to be accurate, and you got to know what you're doing if you're going to be doing inverse. Yeah, man. It's interesting. Even every time we talk to somebody, economists or strategist from the world of business, it's the same thing. It's like, yo, if we didn't have these tariffs, we'd be doing pretty great.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah. Nvidia would be off to the moon. I mean, because especially at that GTC, just the things they announced. Tesla 1B is down as much. But the thing about this tariff situation or these kind of, like, economics situations, it makes you look at the numbers a lot harder in the core business. And there was a lot of businesses that was floating along because the economy is doing well and we get to really see who's great and who's not.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah. So everything. Everything will be adjusted. Right. So future guidance will be adjusted because revenue will come down. Everything will it. That part that he said about it, we're going to be in a long game with China. That's. That's gonna be interesting. Because it felt like. And it still feels that way, like he'll. He'll create a scenario. As he said. As Steve said, he loves chaos like most people don't. Like, he loves chaos because that superhero mentality or that maybe, I guess you can chalk it up to the narcissism. I can come save the day. I have the solution to save the day. And the deeper we get into this situation, I don't. I don't know if there's a. The Superman cap for this. This might not be to save the day tactic that I think in his mind he has planned.

[Angela Rod]

It's like Thanos.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

But in the meantime, I was put on Twitter last week. But, man, if. Shout out to the Visa CEO, who we met. Visa smoking right now on fire. Good hedge for this market.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

I would love for you to come on the show, Mr. Ryan, please. So if anybody knows him, you know, a company's gonna do it. Well, when you're like, oh, what you think of the communities? Like, I don't know. I'm like, all the data points you got.

[Rashad Bilal]

You.

[Angela Rod]

You know what the economy gonna do? Humility in the answer. I'm like, oh, yeah, y'all finna Go to the moon. To the moon. He ain't trying to give no guidance to us or nothing.

[Rashad Bilal]

Oh, great.

[Angela Rod]

Nice to meet you guys. See you later. I said, oh, he cooking Visa.

[Ian Dunlap]

Nvidia. So the former. I'm just reading this. The former CEO of Intel, Pat Gelsinger, said that in order to dethrone the king, you got to be 10 times better. They've created such a competitive mode that it's almost an unfair advantage. And this is the guy who's trying to compete at one point.

[Angela Rod]

And the crazy part, Only the Paranoid Survive was a book by the CEO of Intel back in the day. It's a great business book.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah, yeah. 10 times better.

[Angela Rod]

Have to be. I mean, we've lived about that forever. Shout out to Michael B. Jordan, Coogler, Rashad, I saw your poll. I said, damn. Deal split. Oh, let's talk about the splits.

[Ian Dunlap]

20. Yeah. Shout out to them.

[Angela Rod]

But it's a great point. You do have to be 10 times better. And even then, like, we're 10 times better than most analysts and funds and boy. So my math 30 exit.

[Rashad Bilal]

Are Google's best days behind them.

[Angela Rod]

See what stance I want to take on this.

[Ian Dunlap]

Shout out to the team at Google had a nice onboarding call with them earlier this week. This is an interesting time as they are in court facing.

[Angela Rod]

Which I think is unfair. Yeah. Which I'm not saying is because of the relationship, but.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

Why are you steady to the government with the ftc? Oh, no. Well, never mind. But I think it's unfair to continue to have this search argument. Right. Because the government. You're smarter than me. So I'd be remiss if I would act like I'm smarter than you. I'm so sorry. Why in a landscape of AI when their lead is decaying with AI, why are you trying to break up the search business when the real focus should be on who has a monopoly on AI by country?

[Ian Dunlap]

Well, that's part of it. So the. The AI piece is a part of it. So they are being accused of illegally stifling competition by paying the makers of web browsers and phones to set Google as their default search engine. So when you go. When you. I mean, you buy your. Your iPhone, when you search, it's Google. So what they're saying is, if I have that user base right there, you have now mixed Gemini inside the search.

[Angela Rod]

Oh, okay.

[Ian Dunlap]

And so automatically your search becomes Gemini, which does hurt. Hurt. Well, apparently hurts some companies. So a federal judge ruled last week that the company held a monopoly over some of the tools that websites use to sell open ad space. And so there's that part of it too. And then if you look at the number one web browser, right. We grew up in an era where it was like you use Safari. Chrome has now surpassed that by millions, if not billions of people. And so there's that piece. The interesting part is I read most some of, some of the court documents they didn't really touch on YouTube as much.

[Angela Rod]

No.

[Ian Dunlap]

Which is its own conglomerate and a big part of their core business. But that if they break up search if then that the, the question, the answer to the question would be it's, it's likely.

[Angela Rod]

It's like okay, Google has. Yeah, Google has 89 of the global search market. But Chat GPT including Microsoft Copilot has 74% of the generative AI chat bot market. So are they then going to go after Microsoft and open AI next? I, I would think that the search market is a dying. Not in terms of relevancy, but we're trying to answer your question. Do I think Google's best days are behind them? No. And that's not because of the relationship. I, I think people are over hyping AI, killing off their business. Do I think culturally they could have done some things better and, and could have kept some of the things they innovated for sure. But yeah, to call it there would be a mistake. Yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

Not that, not that. This.

[Angela Rod]

No, no.

[Ian Dunlap]

Where near a big dog playing big dog right there. They want them to stop making payments to phone makers like Apple to ensure that people have an option to have a search engine. But if they have the capital to do it, they're going to do it. The number one phone number, number one brand and branded phone for sure is Apple. So if I can pay them to be the search engine for that phone, I'm gonna pay them. If it was a trio 10 years, they would have paid like you paid because you understand that that makes good.

[Angela Rod]

Business for you and it's a superior product. That's the one good lesson you need to bring. Going back to that 10x better point. Like make the product so good that you have to get these monopoly charges. Safari's shout out to Apple. I know y'all tired of me, but Safari's search engine browser isn't nowhere near Google's. Not in the same universe.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

So. Yeah, but no, Google's nowhere near that.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yeah. This, there's a. Yeah. And you know what? I think they, they'll, they'll come out victorious in this one.

[Steve Eisman]

Yeah.

[Angela Rod]

I hope so, Evan Spiegel, you should have sold that to Zuckerberg, though, while we talking about that boy you call the funeral home yourself. Get your little ranking suit together at 7.50. Remember when it went to 83? And everyone's like, you guys don't know social. You're out of touch. Okay, yeah, hey, listen, the government's gonna ask matter to buy Snapchat because it is in the ground.

[Ian Dunlap]

Stay away. Yeah, family, keep the family away. But deep mind, I mean, you sent that clip. And if anybody watched 60 Minutes, DeepMind some of the innovation that they have in real time with AI, that's incredible. It looks like, again, if they package the right product correctly, if they can market it correctly, they have the advantage because they have the brilliance inside of. Of the company already.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, Google reminds me of like, poppy fish. Like, it's. It's a lot of fruit that came off of that tree. They may not have directly benefited from it, but, yeah, they were in the lead on thinking of doing this kind of model maybe 10 or 15 years ago, but they just didn't keep it all in the house, so. But no, Google isn't dead.

[Ian Dunlap]

You learn, you learn. You learn for sure.

[Angela Rod]

Adoku. You almost had one last night, my boy. But Steph came through.

[Ian Dunlap]

My boy. Different man.

[Angela Rod]

For real. I'm like, all right.

[Rashad Bilal]

Detroit, Michigan, we are in your city tomorrow.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yep.

[Angela Rod]

Yes.

[Rashad Bilal]

Two tickets left. Go to. You deserve to be. Richbook.com. get your tickets. New Haven, Connecticut will be. Be in New Haven on May 2nd for the book. May 3rd.

[Ian Dunlap]

May 3rd. Saturday.

[Angela Rod]

You're breaking out the cardies in Detroit.

[Rashad Bilal]

Oh, yeah, for sure.

[Ian Dunlap]

I think I'm supposed to pick up some. Yeah, yeah. I don't have. I have none. And I said, if I ever do it, I got to do it. You gotta do it in the right city.

[Angela Rod]

Gotcha.

[Ian Dunlap]

But they said they're gonna put me in contact with some people.

[Angela Rod]

Gotcha. I feel like the old days just fire information. No. No gossip. You know what I mean?

[Ian Dunlap]

Just do what we can, man.

[Angela Rod]

Comments? Yeah.

[Ian Dunlap]

Big earnings week. Before we get out of here, we talked about Tesla. They report tomorrow after close. Boeing will be reporting on Wednesday. Chipotle on Wednesday, Vertev on Wednesday. Who else we got here? Texas Instruments, we talked about them. Land research, intel on Thursday afternoon. The company we just spoke about, Google. Google will be reporting as well. Celestica, T Mobile. So some of the. Some of the heavy hitters are going to be reporting. American Airlines, PepsiCo. So. So a big week.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, I mean, actually, intel is at a generational bi level, I still wouldn't touch it, but almost 1804, but.

[Ian Dunlap]

And if your favorite athleisure brand will be reporting Lulu Skechers.

[Angela Rod]

Oh, it almost got Nike wiped down, too. Mark Parker.

[Ian Dunlap]

They got. They got Joel Embiid, and then I don't know what happened after injuries, like, what? Should have known.

[Angela Rod]

That sketch's got a couple of.

[Ian Dunlap]

Who else they got Tom Brady at one point was Sketches.

[Angela Rod]

That's crazy. They're about to have a hard time, too, though. Yeah, I could see them fall into, like, 28 bucks. The tariff thing is gonna hurt a lot of business. Like, I get the course correction, and sometimes you got to feel pain to get to the promised land. But this is going to hurt a lot of companies in combination with private equity doing what they're doing. Y'all go research that Toys R Us story.

[Ian Dunlap]

Julius Randall. What the hell is he thinking? He's the other one. Oh, he's a Sketches athlete.

[Angela Rod]

I remember they threw the bag at.

[Ian Dunlap]

Him, shipped him out to Minnesota for that. We don't wear sketches in New York, bro.

[Angela Rod]

Carl Anthony cooking three Jalen cooking.

[Ian Dunlap]

More appropriate.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah. New York. Looking good, yo.

[Rashad Bilal]

All right, y'all. It's been real.

[Ian Dunlap]

It's been real. It's been real.

[Angela Rod]

Shy. Ready to go to Ghana on y'all look now.

[Ian Dunlap]

We coming home. We coming home.

[Angela Rod]

World traveler.

[Ian Dunlap]

Just wait for it.

[Rashad Bilal]

Back then, I was on the world tour.

[Angela Rod]

Text me them dates, too.

[Rashad Bilal]

I got you.

[Angela Rod]

I'm gonna be right at the Jiu Jitsu. I saw my boy doing push ups. Y'all think I got. I said shock already knocked somebody out.

[Ian Dunlap]

Yo, I'm telling you, you walk around the continent with Shaka, you. It's different, man. This dude is internationally known. For sure.

[Angela Rod]

For sure. Yeah, yeah.

[Rashad Bilal]

I got into a continent near you soon, not just Africa.

[Angela Rod]

Text me, Rashad. Right on Expedia.

[Rashad Bilal]

The world is big, man.

[Angela Rod]

You gotta.

[Rashad Bilal]

That's a major key in life.

[Ian Dunlap]

Stay tuned.

[Rashad Bilal]

All right, ladies and gentlemen, blackout on Wednesday and earn your leisure on Thursday.

[Angela Rod]

Yes, we'll see y'all Wednesday.

[Ian Dunlap]

Be good to each other. Pray over each other. Condolences to. To against. Some of our good friends have lost family members. So condolences, thoughts and prayers go out to y'all. Reach out to your people. And love is love. We'll see y'all. Peace.

[Angela Rod]

Yeah, Peace.

[Ian Dunlap]

When you're with Amex Business Platinum, you.

[Rashad Bilal]

Have the card that helps businesses dream.

[Ian Dunlap]

Bigger, get a flexible spending limit that adapts with your business, and earn 1.5 times Membership Rewards points on select business.

[Rashad Bilal]

Purchases so you can stock up on what you need to take your business.

[Ian Dunlap]

Further and get rewarded for growing bigger.

[Rashad Bilal]

That's the powerful backing of American Express. Not all purchases will be approved terms apply. Learn [e-mail] AmEx Business Today's episode is.

[Angela Rod]

Sponsored by Smart Travel, a new podcast from NerdWallet. Smart travel doesn't just cover points and miles. They break down all the financial aspects of your trip, whether that's the best.

[Ian Dunlap]

Days to book, how to avoid hidden.

[Angela Rod]

Fees, or which fancy travel credit cards pay off and which ones are just an expensive flex. If you want your travel budget to work harder, then dive into the best deals, products, services and more with Smart Travel from NerdWallet. Wherever you get your podcasts.