Market Mondays #275: Oracle’s Stock Explosion, Tesla Buybacks, Hidden AI Stock Gem & Recession Odds

EYL Network | September 16, 2025

Episode Overview

This energetic Market Mondays episode zeroes in on seismic movements in the stock market, with Troy, Rashad, Shy, and special guest Ian Dunlap unpacking Oracle’s meteoric stock run, Elon Musk’s headline-grabbing Tesla buyback, a hidden AI stock gem, and sharpening recession worries. They pepper in actionable investment strategies, spotlight emerging opportunities in AI, and reflect on broader economic and political shifts, all while fielding practical questions to help listeners make sense of market turbulence and opportunity.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tesla Buyback: Elon Flexes with Massive Stock Purchase

[13:16 – 19:39]

• Event: Elon Musk orchestrated a substantial Tesla stock buyback, sending shares surging ~5–6%.
• Analysis:
  • Buybacks remove shares from the market, typically boosting share value and signaling executive confidence.
  • Ian notes the timing: “It was really fascinating because Larry Ellison became the richest person in the world for a day or two. ... This was a little bit of an egotistical move, but good investment for Tesla.” (13:52)
  • The buyback is interpreted as a renewed vote of confidence, aligning with signs that Elon has become laser-focused, especially post-breakup with the White House and controversial distractions.
  • “He’s at [Tesla] headquarters more than he used to be ... rallying the troops since that chip of being in the White House went away.” (16:52, Rashad)
• Investor Guidance: Wait for a pullback before buying in — technical support cited around $388.52 and $406.65.

2. Rate Cuts Anxiety and Recession Forecasts

[20:07 – 34:35]

• Fed Moves: With the market anticipating an imminent rate cut, hosts discuss if it’ll be a quarter- or half-point cut and ponder potential for a third cut by year-end.
  • Troy: “I think it’s 100% guarantee at this point ... it’s just about how much he’s gonna lower them.” (20:11)
• Recession Odds:
  • Wildly divergent predictions: UBS at 93% odds vs. NY Fed’s 20%.
  • Rashad: “They’re literally changing the rulebook right in front of you.” (23:13) Calls today’s “recession” sector-specific: some industries in trouble, others booming.
  • Noted divergence: Tech is at all-time highs while much of the population, especially those making <$150k, feels like it’s 2008 all over again.
• Labor Market & AI Impact:
  • Job growth is called illusory; more people unemployed than jobs available.
  • AI advances (like Robinhood’s new indicator-building tool) threaten huge swathes of white- and blue-collar jobs.
  • “AI will be a Trojan horse to make the wealth gap wider ... Whatever we go through, the country as a whole is going to go through a few years later.” (33:12, Rashad)
• Global Political Shifts: Host Shy links the surging global right-wing, AI disruption, and government spending to heightened fear and uncertainty.

3. Investment Guidance for Young (NIL) Earners

[08:37 – 12:12]

• For families of student-athletes who suddenly receive six-figure sums via NIL deals, the hosts recommend:
  • Dollar-cost averaging into broad tech indexes (S&P 500/QQQ or VGT).
  • Focus on sector winners: Microsoft and Nvidia as flagship “proxy” plays for the AI megatrend—especially since OpenAI itself is private.
  • Plan allocations, be patient, and avoid “keeping up” with higher-earning peers recklessly.
  • Quote: “Microsoft is a secondary way to invest in OpenAI ... Into the index or ETF and then split the remaining amongst Microsoft, Nvidia.” (11:30, Rashad)

4. Oracle’s Cloud/AI Dominance & 'Hidden Gem' Factor

[49:16 – 58:47]

• The Oracle Story:
  • Oracle clinched the TikTok U.S. cloud contract in 2020 and is now the cloud backbone for TikTok and, more recently, OpenAI.
  • Troy traces the inflection point: “In 2020, September ... go look at Oracle’s chart and look what it’s done since that moment.” (49:16)
  • Oracle is now solidly the #4 U.S. cloud provider (behind Amazon, Microsoft, Google)—poised to become essential AI infrastructure.
• Recent Performance: Oracle’s stock spiked from $240 to $345; Larry Ellison briefly dethroned all as the world’s richest.
• Investment Outlook:
  • Rashad’s targets: $408 by ’26-’27; “I wouldn’t be surprised if it hits 510 by 2027.” (54:47)
  • Not a hyper-growth stock, but “the story’s not over.”
• How It Works (The Money Cycle):
  • “Nvidia sells GPUs to Oracle. Oracle builds data centers ... Nvidia rents compute back ... These are money cycles.” (58:57, Troy)

5. Hidden AI Stock Gem: ASML

[40:26 – 44:45]

• ASML—dominant supplier of high-end chipmaking equipment, key to the AI and semiconductor boom.
  • Troy: “At the top of the food chain ... they produce the machinery ... The demand tells you how much they’re going to be needed going forward.” (40:38)
  • Outlook: “If you're long ASML, I’ll continue to hold for the long-term.” (42:53, Rashad)

6. Crypto Exposure & MicroStrategy’s Volatile Ride

[34:35 – 39:35; 68:54 – 70:11]

• MicroStrategy: Experienced a significant drawdown, partially due to regulatory headwinds (e.g. Bitcoin-holdings caps and S&P 500 exclusion). Its price action is an accelerated version of Bitcoin’s.
  • “Hyper concentration is the way to go. If it gets down to 298.17, it's a place that I really like it.” (36:48, Rashad)
• On Family Office Reluctance to Crypto:
  • Only 33% have direct exposure. Host consensus: it’s more about risk guardianship/age than legitimacy. “The role of the family office is to preserve generations of wealth.” (70:03, Troy)

7. Quarterly Earnings: Should the U.S. Switch to Semi-Annual Reports?

[61:31 – 68:02]

• Trump suggested halving reporting frequency to reduce short-termism.
  • Rashad: “I have long thought ... we should report on an annual basis. So for the first time, publicly, I agree with Trump 1,000 percent.” (63:10)
  • Debate: Would it help long-term planning by management or harm transparency and investor fairness?
  • Shy: “The reason why it won’t happen is because it’s harmful for Wall Street ... what's good for traders. Quarterly is going to be better because that just gives more opportunity.” (65:34)

8. Streaming Wars & The Return of Piracy

[70:40 – 74:53]

• Netflix and Google (YouTube) seen as the only “can’t miss” streaming plays.
• Record high content costs and streaming fragmentation are pushing up consumer bills—higher than cable—and driving audiences back to piracy.
  • “We saw like the largest shutdown of the pirate ... but when something gets banned, something new arises.” (72:16, Troy)
• Disney remains in the turnaround phase; ESPN project uncertainty described as a “disaster.” (74:03, Rashad)

9. Micron: America’s Homegrown AI Memory Leader

[75:05 – 77:40]

• Micron emerges as the U.S. leader in high-bandwidth memory, essential to AI.
  • “Their earnings is going to be here next week ... The catalyst event is upon us.” (75:54, Troy)
  • Analyst targets up to $200; patience counseled given volatility.

10. Entrepreneur Spotlight: Damon Frost, CEO of Bevel

[86:49 – 116:28]

• Segment: Bevel announces the winner of their $25,000 Invest Fest vendor marketplace grant: STEM Plugs, a Black-owned youth STEM engagement startup.
• Damon shares how selling a company is often “about executing a mission at scale, not selling out,” and stresses the need for founders to focus sharply, know their ‘why,’ and solve concrete consumer needs.
  • “It’s not about being protective. It’s about delivering what you’re trying to do, based on the vision.” (100:31)

Notable & Memorable Quotes

• “AI will be a Trojan horse to make the wealth gap wider ... Whatever we go through, the country as a whole is going to seem to go through a few years later.”
  — Rashad (33:12)

• “The market is permanently rigged to stay up. Stop trying to short the market.”
  — Rashad (119:52)

• “Microsoft is a secondary way to invest in OpenAI ... Into the index or ETF and then split the remaining amongst Microsoft, Nvidia.”
  — Rashad (11:30)

• “In 2020, September ... go look at Oracle’s chart and look what it’s done since that moment.”
  — Troy (49:16)

• “Hyper concentration is the way to go. If it gets down to 298.17, it's a place that I really like it.”
  — Rashad (36:48)

• “The anomaly is not the norm. An exception to the rule is not the new rule.”
  — Troy (81:15)

Segment Timestamps

• [13:16] Tesla’s Buyback explained
• [20:07] Fed rate expectations
• [22:59] Recession indicators and mixed signals
• [34:35] MicroStrategy/BTC microcap discussion
• [40:26] ASML: The AI backbone
• [49:16] Oracle’s rise, TikTok and OpenAI deals
• [61:31] Annual vs. quarterly earnings debate
• [70:40] Streaming business, piracy & platforms
• [75:05] Micron’s “AI moment”
• [86:49] Entrepreneur interview: Bevel CEO & $25,000 STEM grant

Tone & Style

• Conversational, high-energy, direct—hosts use market lingo, pop culture metaphors, humor, and streetwise analogies alongside technical market analysis.
• They pride themselves on actionable, no-nonsense financial talk, especially focused on serving an audience looking to build generational wealth.

Conclusion

This episode offers a comprehensive wrap of September 2025’s highest-impact investing stories, balancing hype for AI and tech’s winners with caution about economic storm clouds on the horizon. Listeners walk away with pointed strategies (from dollar-cost averaging to identifying hidden gems early, and understanding buybacks), a keen sense of macro shifts (AI, recession odds, reporting regulations), and the encouragement to keep building—together and strategically.

For More:

• Tune in to the next class (Wed 10pm, Square episode Thur 6pm)
• For granular investing guidance, consider joining Stock Club via ianinvest.com

“Let’s build. It feels way better when people are winning with you. Trust me.”
— Troy (13:02)