Market Mondays Ep. 284 — End of Gov Shutdown, Trump’s $2K Plan, Crypto vs Stocks & Recession Warnings

Podcast: Market Mondays
Hosts: Rashad Bilal, Ian Dunlap, Brian “The Master Investor”
Episode: #284 (November 11, 2025)
Recording Location: Dubai, UAE

Episode Overview

This episode of Market Mondays dives into the current financial and political climate, focusing on the end of the U.S. government shutdown, Donald Trump’s plan to provide $2,000 “tariff dividends” to Americans, looming recession indicators, and investment strategies. The hosts tackle the AI boom, the student loan crisis, the role of FICO in the economy, and practical advice for new millionaires, while fielding questions from their live audience.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Government Shutdown Ends — Impacts on Markets

Hosts open with relief and optimism following the news that the U.S. government shutdown is ending.
[93:06] Rashad: "The Senate deal to extend government funding...this looks like the stoppage to the longest government shutdown in American history...the stock market [had] a positive uptick."
[93:06-94:12] Brian: Explains that government shutdowns tend to negatively affect retail-dependent companies but not dominant B2B firms like Nvidia, Microsoft, Vanguard, and Google.
Advice: Only invest in “A-player companies,” which are foundational to GDP — not retail or fast food chains that are more vulnerable to macro shocks.

2. Trump’s $2,000 “Tariff Dividend” Proposal

Trump proposes a $2K payout for most Americans using revenue from tariffs, except for high-income earners.
[21:44] Rashad: “It’s crazy because…Republicans as fiscal conservatives run on lowering the debt and cutting out government subsidies...but all that’s happened in the last year is record-breaking numbers as far as the national debt.”
[22:37] Brian: Highlights contradictions — “This is going to cost anywhere from $300 to $500 billion...you're devaluing money by just putting money into the marketplace.”
[24:03] Ian: Notes that the Supreme Court is hearing if these tariffs are legal — the money may need to be refunded if not.
Skepticism over whether tariff revenue is actually being collected to fund this dividend.
Memorable Quote:
Brian [24:40]: "It's a band-aid over a bazooka wound. Inflation has gotten up so high the $2,000 won't have an impact...It's not going to help."

3. FICO & The Importance of Credit

Rashad uses the analogy that your credit score is like your “adult transcript.”
[09:34] Rashad: “Your credit score...is going to make a decision whether you're worthy enough to get a loan, buy a home, or even sometimes get a job.”
[10:05] Brian: “FICO is one of the best performing stocks of the last 10 years and they have a quiet monopoly.”
FICO’s stock has soared 85,000% since its IPO, reflecting the shift to a credit-based society.
[13:26] Rashad: “You can't even really live without a credit score right now.”
Takeaway: Understand credit deeply, consider FICO and Moody’s as “impenetrable” rating stocks, and see long-term value in investing in credit infrastructure.

4. Futures Trading Tip

[17:40] Brian: Advises traders to avoid odd time frames — top traders ("managing more than $50m") use even time frames (not 1 or 3-minute charts).
Quote:
Brian [18:56]: “You shouldn't be trading odd time frames...have you been able to sustain two, four, six years of returns?”

5. Politics, Student Loans, and the College Value Question

Discussion about the future of college as a breeding ground for talent vs. direct-to-work internship models.
[30:02] Ian: “College is no longer a trusted breeding ground for our brilliant…the Palantir CEO is running paid intern programs as an alternative.”
[32:38] Rashad: “Sometimes you don't know what you want at 18…but the college system is now financially risky.”
Advice: Hyper-specialization as a model, reducing wasted general education, and focusing quickly on relevant skills.

6. Michael Burry’s Tech Short Bets

Burry puts massive short positions on Nvidia and Palantir, spurring fear and debate.
[37:59] Brian: “You don’t know what his parameters are for a winning trade...I will remain long on Nvidia and Palantir.”
[41:01-45:32] Ian & Brian: Note the risks of AI and defense tech bubbles but conclude that these companies are “too big to fail.”
[45:47] Rashad: “Even if you don’t use [defense tech], you’re still gonna buy it...it's about fear through intimidation.”
Lesson: Don’t try to mimic big-name investors’ trades without understanding their context, and recognize the strategic role of tech and defense companies.

7. Becoming a Millionaire: Now What?

[48:43] Rashad: "Don't make any large purchases, including a house."
[49:01] Brian: “They’ll say you’re anti-homeist, but your primary home...is not going to be an asset for you in the moment, it’s a liability.”
[56:47] Brian: “No lifestyle creep until you get to your first $11 million. And even after, minimize lifestyle creep.”
Key steps: Avoid luxury splurges, don’t tie up cash, invest for growth, maximize tax efficiency, and stay vigilant with money.

8. Diamonds & Jewelry as Investments

[59:08] Rashad: “Diamonds at an all-time low...lab diamonds pass as real diamonds, so the whole market is in trouble.”
Summary: Jewelry is a poor investment; wealth should be directed at appreciating assets.

9. Crypto vs. Stocks for Year-End (“Santa Claus Rally”)

[68:20] Brian: “Both, for sure. Bitcoin...Ethereum...Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google, OpenAI when public, Eli Lilly—you only need four assets to get rich.”
Emphasis: Stick to top-performing assets instead of seeking hundreds of picks.

10. AI & Google’s “Sleeper” Moves

Google’s AI development (Gemini, VO3), strategic partnership with Apple, and YouTube integration discussed as keys to their comeback.
[63:53] Brian: “One of my favorite comeback stories of just flawless execution is Google.”
Google’s innovation and “quiet” execution receive high praise; Apple is noted to be falling behind in this AI race.

11. Eli Lilly vs Novo; Pharma Sector

Trump’s partnership with Eli Lilly and Novo discussed.
[74:47] Brian: “Lilly is the clear leader...exceptional company even without the GLP-1 drugs.”
[76:22] Ian: “Look for the American company, the leader. They check all the boxes.”
Warning: Beware pharma “one-trick ponies”; Eli Lilly stands out, but sector is risky.

12. Youth Unemployment & Recession Warnings

[79:36] Brian: “Youth employment data...9.2% of people 21–28 can’t find a job. That's a very scary pre-recession indicator.”
Massive student debt, minimal entry-level jobs, and AI-automated filtering compound the risk for young people, with broad implications for future economic growth.

13. International Diversification & Real Estate

Real estate taxes in the US compared with other countries (Ghana, Turks & Caicos).
[85:13] Rashad: “If you miss one year in back taxes, you’re in trouble...You don’t own your house in America if that’s the logic.”
Advice: Diversify geographically and consider international options for property, given the uncertainty of U.S. property taxes.

14. Retail Stocks: Chipotle & CAVA

Recent struggles attributed to reliance on disposable income and government worker traffic (especially in DMV areas).
[90:39] Ian: “If they're not going to work and not getting paid...fast casual doesn’t become fast casual anymore.”
Summary: Good companies but not “A-tier”—too reliant on retail health and economic cycles. Save your focus for companies that move the GDP.

15. Top Indicators for 2027 Market

[95:50] Brian: “Are Vanguard, BlackRock, and Invesco net buyers of the asset?”
Prescription: Follow what the big institutions and governments are buying—if they’re accumulating, that’s your guide.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

On Lifestyle Creep:
“[There should be] no lifestyle creep until you get to your first $11 million. And even after…minimize lifestyle creep.”
— Brian [56:47]
On Making Money in the Market:
“You only need four assets to get rich.”
— Brian [68:59]
On The New Value of College:
“I always hated the pitch of college that, ‘Come find yourself here,’ because the cost is too high to do so.”
— Brian [32:24]
On Tech Stock Shorting:
“Sometimes you can be so focused on trying to recreate a win [the big short] that’s not the natural direction of an asset. Most assets are rigged to stay up.”
— Brian [43:46]
On Jewelry As an Investment:
“Diamonds are at an all-time low and lab diamonds test as real diamonds. The diamond industry is in shambles.”
— Rashad [59:08]

Timestamps for Key Segments

02:27 — Dubai/Major family and EYL updates
04:00 — NYC mayoral discussion & political landscape
08:24 – 16:47 — FICO, credit, beginner’s corner, financial literacy
17:40 — Futures trading tip (even vs odd timeframes)
21:03 – 27:10 — Trump’s $2K tariff proposal & analysis
30:02 – 37:59 — College vs. direct internship model (Palantir, education reform)
37:59 – 47:51 — Michael Burry’s short bets, Palantir & Nvidia, tech defense
48:43 – 65:51 — Advice for first-time millionaires, avoiding lifestyle creep
65:51 – 66:24 — Google as a sleeper AI play
76:22 – 78:00 — Eli Lilly, pharma sector, health investing
79:36 — Youth unemployment as a pre-recessionary indicator
85:13 – 88:05 — International real estate & diversification
90:39 – 95:21 — Chipotle/CAVA stock discussion
95:50 — Following BlackRock/Vanguard institutional purchases
97:08 – 98:47 — Upcoming earnings: Disney, DraftKings

Final Takeaways

Focus your investments on “A-tier” companies fundamental to economic infrastructure — particularly U.S. tech, healthcare, and financial backbone firms.
Stay wary of political stunts—government handouts and policies often don’t address core economic weaknesses.
Rethink the “old rules” of wealth — delay large lifestyle purchases, focus on asset accumulation and international diversification, and beware of status-symbol “investments” like cars and diamonds.
Keep watch for recession signals in youth unemployment, corporate default rates, and institutional demand for assets.
In the age of AI and rapid change, continuous learning and adaptability — not simply formal education — remain key for both investors and workers.

For more actionable insights, check out the full episode or join Market Mondays live on the EYL Network.

Market Mondays Ep. 284 — End of Gov Shutdown, Trump’s $2K Plan, Crypto vs Stocks & Recession Warnings

Podcast: Market Mondays
Hosts: Rashad Bilal, Ian Dunlap, Brian “The Master Investor”
Episode: #284 (November 11, 2025)
Recording Location: Dubai, UAE

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Government Shutdown Ends — Impacts on Markets

Hosts open with relief and optimism following the news that the U.S. government shutdown is ending.
[93:06] Rashad: "The Senate deal to extend government funding...this looks like the stoppage to the longest government shutdown in American history...the stock market [had] a positive uptick."
[93:06-94:12] Brian: Explains that government shutdowns tend to negatively affect retail-dependent companies but not dominant B2B firms like Nvidia, Microsoft, Vanguard, and Google.
Advice: Only invest in “A-player companies,” which are foundational to GDP — not retail or fast food chains that are more vulnerable to macro shocks.

2. Trump’s $2,000 “Tariff Dividend” Proposal

Trump proposes a $2K payout for most Americans using revenue from tariffs, except for high-income earners.
[21:44] Rashad: “It’s crazy because…Republicans as fiscal conservatives run on lowering the debt and cutting out government subsidies...but all that’s happened in the last year is record-breaking numbers as far as the national debt.”
[22:37] Brian: Highlights contradictions — “This is going to cost anywhere from $300 to $500 billion...you're devaluing money by just putting money into the marketplace.”
[24:03] Ian: Notes that the Supreme Court is hearing if these tariffs are legal — the money may need to be refunded if not.
Skepticism over whether tariff revenue is actually being collected to fund this dividend.
Memorable Quote:
Brian [24:40]: "It's a band-aid over a bazooka wound. Inflation has gotten up so high the $2,000 won't have an impact...It's not going to help."

3. FICO & The Importance of Credit

Rashad uses the analogy that your credit score is like your “adult transcript.”
[09:34] Rashad: “Your credit score...is going to make a decision whether you're worthy enough to get a loan, buy a home, or even sometimes get a job.”
[10:05] Brian: “FICO is one of the best performing stocks of the last 10 years and they have a quiet monopoly.”
FICO’s stock has soared 85,000% since its IPO, reflecting the shift to a credit-based society.
[13:26] Rashad: “You can't even really live without a credit score right now.”
Takeaway: Understand credit deeply, consider FICO and Moody’s as “impenetrable” rating stocks, and see long-term value in investing in credit infrastructure.

4. Futures Trading Tip

[17:40] Brian: Advises traders to avoid odd time frames — top traders ("managing more than $50m") use even time frames (not 1 or 3-minute charts).
Quote:
Brian [18:56]: “You shouldn't be trading odd time frames...have you been able to sustain two, four, six years of returns?”

5. Politics, Student Loans, and the College Value Question

Discussion about the future of college as a breeding ground for talent vs. direct-to-work internship models.
[30:02] Ian: “College is no longer a trusted breeding ground for our brilliant…the Palantir CEO is running paid intern programs as an alternative.”
[32:38] Rashad: “Sometimes you don't know what you want at 18…but the college system is now financially risky.”
Advice: Hyper-specialization as a model, reducing wasted general education, and focusing quickly on relevant skills.

6. Michael Burry’s Tech Short Bets

Burry puts massive short positions on Nvidia and Palantir, spurring fear and debate.
[37:59] Brian: “You don’t know what his parameters are for a winning trade...I will remain long on Nvidia and Palantir.”
[41:01-45:32] Ian & Brian: Note the risks of AI and defense tech bubbles but conclude that these companies are “too big to fail.”
[45:47] Rashad: “Even if you don’t use [defense tech], you’re still gonna buy it...it's about fear through intimidation.”
Lesson: Don’t try to mimic big-name investors’ trades without understanding their context, and recognize the strategic role of tech and defense companies.

7. Becoming a Millionaire: Now What?

[48:43] Rashad: "Don't make any large purchases, including a house."
[49:01] Brian: “They’ll say you’re anti-homeist, but your primary home...is not going to be an asset for you in the moment, it’s a liability.”
[56:47] Brian: “No lifestyle creep until you get to your first $11 million. And even after, minimize lifestyle creep.”
Key steps: Avoid luxury splurges, don’t tie up cash, invest for growth, maximize tax efficiency, and stay vigilant with money.

8. Diamonds & Jewelry as Investments

[59:08] Rashad: “Diamonds at an all-time low...lab diamonds pass as real diamonds, so the whole market is in trouble.”
Summary: Jewelry is a poor investment; wealth should be directed at appreciating assets.

9. Crypto vs. Stocks for Year-End (“Santa Claus Rally”)

[68:20] Brian: “Both, for sure. Bitcoin...Ethereum...Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google, OpenAI when public, Eli Lilly—you only need four assets to get rich.”
Emphasis: Stick to top-performing assets instead of seeking hundreds of picks.

10. AI & Google’s “Sleeper” Moves

Google’s AI development (Gemini, VO3), strategic partnership with Apple, and YouTube integration discussed as keys to their comeback.
[63:53] Brian: “One of my favorite comeback stories of just flawless execution is Google.”
Google’s innovation and “quiet” execution receive high praise; Apple is noted to be falling behind in this AI race.

11. Eli Lilly vs Novo; Pharma Sector

Trump’s partnership with Eli Lilly and Novo discussed.
[74:47] Brian: “Lilly is the clear leader...exceptional company even without the GLP-1 drugs.”
[76:22] Ian: “Look for the American company, the leader. They check all the boxes.”
Warning: Beware pharma “one-trick ponies”; Eli Lilly stands out, but sector is risky.

12. Youth Unemployment & Recession Warnings

[79:36] Brian: “Youth employment data...9.2% of people 21–28 can’t find a job. That's a very scary pre-recession indicator.”
Massive student debt, minimal entry-level jobs, and AI-automated filtering compound the risk for young people, with broad implications for future economic growth.

13. International Diversification & Real Estate

Real estate taxes in the US compared with other countries (Ghana, Turks & Caicos).
[85:13] Rashad: “If you miss one year in back taxes, you’re in trouble...You don’t own your house in America if that’s the logic.”
Advice: Diversify geographically and consider international options for property, given the uncertainty of U.S. property taxes.

14. Retail Stocks: Chipotle & CAVA

Recent struggles attributed to reliance on disposable income and government worker traffic (especially in DMV areas).
[90:39] Ian: “If they're not going to work and not getting paid...fast casual doesn’t become fast casual anymore.”
Summary: Good companies but not “A-tier”—too reliant on retail health and economic cycles. Save your focus for companies that move the GDP.

15. Top Indicators for 2027 Market

[95:50] Brian: “Are Vanguard, BlackRock, and Invesco net buyers of the asset?”
Prescription: Follow what the big institutions and governments are buying—if they’re accumulating, that’s your guide.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

On Lifestyle Creep:
“[There should be] no lifestyle creep until you get to your first $11 million. And even after…minimize lifestyle creep.”
— Brian [56:47]
On Making Money in the Market:
“You only need four assets to get rich.”
— Brian [68:59]
On The New Value of College:
“I always hated the pitch of college that, ‘Come find yourself here,’ because the cost is too high to do so.”
— Brian [32:24]
On Tech Stock Shorting:
“Sometimes you can be so focused on trying to recreate a win [the big short] that’s not the natural direction of an asset. Most assets are rigged to stay up.”
— Brian [43:46]
On Jewelry As an Investment:
“Diamonds are at an all-time low and lab diamonds test as real diamonds. The diamond industry is in shambles.”
— Rashad [59:08]

Timestamps for Key Segments

02:27 — Dubai/Major family and EYL updates
04:00 — NYC mayoral discussion & political landscape
08:24 – 16:47 — FICO, credit, beginner’s corner, financial literacy
17:40 — Futures trading tip (even vs odd timeframes)
21:03 – 27:10 — Trump’s $2K tariff proposal & analysis
30:02 – 37:59 — College vs. direct internship model (Palantir, education reform)
37:59 – 47:51 — Michael Burry’s short bets, Palantir & Nvidia, tech defense
48:43 – 65:51 — Advice for first-time millionaires, avoiding lifestyle creep
65:51 – 66:24 — Google as a sleeper AI play
76:22 – 78:00 — Eli Lilly, pharma sector, health investing
79:36 — Youth unemployment as a pre-recessionary indicator
85:13 – 88:05 — International real estate & diversification
90:39 – 95:21 — Chipotle/CAVA stock discussion
95:50 — Following BlackRock/Vanguard institutional purchases
97:08 – 98:47 — Upcoming earnings: Disney, DraftKings

Final Takeaways

Focus your investments on “A-tier” companies fundamental to economic infrastructure — particularly U.S. tech, healthcare, and financial backbone firms.
Stay wary of political stunts—government handouts and policies often don’t address core economic weaknesses.
Rethink the “old rules” of wealth — delay large lifestyle purchases, focus on asset accumulation and international diversification, and beware of status-symbol “investments” like cars and diamonds.
Keep watch for recession signals in youth unemployment, corporate default rates, and institutional demand for assets.
In the age of AI and rapid change, continuous learning and adaptability — not simply formal education — remain key for both investors and workers.

For more actionable insights, check out the full episode or join Market Mondays live on the EYL Network.

MM #284: End of Gov Shutdown: Trump Wants to Give You $2K, Crypto vs Stocks, & Recession Warnings

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Summary

Market Mondays Ep. 284 — End of Gov Shutdown, Trump’s $2K Plan, Crypto vs Stocks & Recession Warnings

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Government Shutdown Ends — Impacts on Markets

2. Trump’s $2,000 “Tariff Dividend” Proposal

3. FICO & The Importance of Credit

4. Futures Trading Tip

5. Politics, Student Loans, and the College Value Question

6. Michael Burry’s Tech Short Bets

7. Becoming a Millionaire: Now What?

8. Diamonds & Jewelry as Investments

9. Crypto vs. Stocks for Year-End (“Santa Claus Rally”)

10. AI & Google’s “Sleeper” Moves

11. Eli Lilly vs Novo; Pharma Sector

12. Youth Unemployment & Recession Warnings

13. International Diversification & Real Estate

14. Retail Stocks: Chipotle & CAVA

15. Top Indicators for 2027 Market

Memorable Quotes & Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Final Takeaways

Summary

Market Mondays Ep. 284 — End of Gov Shutdown, Trump’s $2K Plan, Crypto vs Stocks & Recession Warnings

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Government Shutdown Ends — Impacts on Markets

2. Trump’s $2,000 “Tariff Dividend” Proposal

3. FICO & The Importance of Credit

4. Futures Trading Tip

5. Politics, Student Loans, and the College Value Question

6. Michael Burry’s Tech Short Bets

7. Becoming a Millionaire: Now What?

8. Diamonds & Jewelry as Investments

9. Crypto vs. Stocks for Year-End (“Santa Claus Rally”)

10. AI & Google’s “Sleeper” Moves

11. Eli Lilly vs Novo; Pharma Sector

12. Youth Unemployment & Recession Warnings

13. International Diversification & Real Estate

14. Retail Stocks: Chipotle & CAVA

15. Top Indicators for 2027 Market

Memorable Quotes & Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Final Takeaways