Market Mondays #285 Summary: Bitcoin & Nvidia in BIG Trouble?? Billionaires Dumping Stocks, & The Biggest Discount Buys

Podcast: Market Mondays
Host: EYL Network (Rashad, Ian, Shoddy)
Episode Date: November 18, 2025

Overview

This episode tackles the shakiness in today's financial markets, focusing on whether Bitcoin and Nvidia are facing real trouble amid big sell-offs by billionaire investors. The hosts dig into why valuations across the market are falling, discuss the coming AI bubble, and break down the strategic moves by major figures like Peter Thiel and Michael Saylor. Throughout, they give actionable advice on how anyone can navigate, survive, and even thrive during these volatile conditions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Correction & Overvaluation ([13:32-18:11])

• Why Are Stocks Dropping?
  • The market is correcting after three years of 20%+ returns, a streak unseen since the dot-com era.
  • Many stocks, especially in AI, have become overvalued and are now returning to reasonable levels.
  • Ian: “People are panicking because they bought at levels where they shouldn’t be buying... The market has run up a lot, and it’s just correcting to where it should be.” [13:44]
• Valuation Bubble Warning:
  • Current conditions evoke dot-com era behaviors: heavy concentration in a handful of high-growth techs.
  • Nvidia is being watched like Apple was in the past as the company that can buoy the whole market.

2. Nvidia’s Role & Single-Stock Risk ([16:56-18:36]; [19:57-21:26]; [96:37-100:50])

• Nvidia’s Pressure:
  • The entire market’s fate and GDP growth feels dependent on Nvidia’s blockbuster performance.
  • Rashad: “The entire US economy and stock market cannot be relying upon one company to deliver blockbuster returns...” [19:57]
• Dependency Dangers:
  • High market concentration in Magnificent 7 stocks, especially Nvidia.
  • “If Nvidia sneezes, some companies will have pneumonia.” – Ian [17:04]
• Earnings Preview (Pivotal Wednesday):
  • Nvidia is expected to report record numbers, but the bar is so high that even “perfect” might disappoint.
  • If Nvidia disappoints, hosts warn of market “pain” across semiconductors, cloud, and AI infrastructure.

3. Billionaires & Institutional Moves: Peter Thiel & Softbank ([40:50-45:25])

• Peter Thiel Selling Nvidia and Tesla:
  • Thiel liquidated large positions (over $100M in Nvidia, 76% of Tesla holdings).
  • Rashad: “The days of 100-200% gains on Nvidia are gone... If you’re up 2,000 or 3,000%, it doesn’t make sense to hold for another thousand.” [41:22]
  • Thiel’s insider access signals possible headwinds, but profit-taking at high valuations is logical.
• Softbank Rotation:
  • Sold Nvidia to redeploy capital into new AI infrastructure but will likely need Nvidia chips for these projects.
  • Selling doesn’t indicate a lack of confidence but is strategic repositioning.

4. Bitcoin Breakdown: Bear Market Coming? ([24:23-38:16]; [81:58-84:43])

• Current Drop Explained:
  • BTC has passed a “death cross” and is in a notable pullback phase (from ~$92k downward during the show).
  • Bitcoin operates on clear four-year cycles—a unique, almost “cheat code” for investors.
• Anticipated Bear Market:
  • Historically, after halving, BTC falls 70-80%. The current institutional backing may soften this to ~$50-60k as a bottom.
  • Hosts debate entry points, with target buy zones ranging from $53k [Rashad] to mid-$60ks [Ian].
  • Shoddy: “You could literally just...take the profit, wait on the sideline, buy when it’s low, and then just keep doing it. Because...that’s what whales do.” [36:33]
• Hold or Trade?
  • Long-term holding (“hold for seven years”) is the most responsible, failsafe advice for 95% of listeners.
  • Advanced traders may try to time cycles, but the volatility and discipline required are significant.

5. Bitcoin-Related Stocks & MicroStrategy ([50:56-57:00])

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) Debate:
  • Heavy accumulation at “any price” exposed MSTR to risky drawdowns as Bitcoin falls.
  • Ian: “When bitcoin corrects, MicroStrategy overcorrects... I don’t think this is the bottom yet.” [52:02]
  • If Saylor can weather the storm, long-term upside remains.

6. AI/Tech Pullbacks: Meta, Palantir, CoreWeave ([63:16-73:09])

• Meta (Facebook):
  • Despite strong earnings, down 23%. Hosts see this as a buying opportunity, not fundamental weakness.
  • Ian: “Meta is a buy. Fact, when I saw it drop 15, I bought it.” [64:22]
• CoreWeave:
  • Down 50%—expansion heavily debt-funded, using older Nvidia GPUs, raising questions about long-term competitiveness.
  • Early private investors have cashed out after the IPO runup.
• Palantir:
  • Down 16%. Valuation is “insane” (PE >180), suggesting the stock is ahead of its fundamentals.
  • Rashad: “It’s like paying Austin Reeves $200 million a year... Austin’s good, but not worth it.” [72:21]

7. Investing Strategies in Volatile Markets ([11:17-12:42]; [75:41-77:26]; [77:58-78:32])

• Trading Tip of the Week:
  • Go where trades aren’t crowded: focus on lesser-known futures (Swiss Franc, Bloomberg Commodity Index, etc.).
• Index Investing (Roth IRA, Young Investors):
  • QQQ and SPY are recommended for simplicity and long-term tech exposure.
• Winners in Correction:
  • Microsoft and Apple called “the new bonds”: safe, steady returns in turbulent times.

8. AI Accounting & Bubble Risks ([78:07-81:17])

• Are AI Giants “Juicing” Numbers?
  • Allegations of accounting tricks exist—mostly among B- or C-tier companies, not elite players like Nvidia.
  • Elite companies are under much greater scrutiny; scandals of Enron magnitude are unlikely.

9. Sector Rotation, Energy, and Thematic Bets ([90:25-93:57])

• Energy Rotation:
  • As tech corrects, energy (especially nuclear) may see a resurgence. Top picks are in ETFs, but watch for emerging names to get added in the future.
• Mean Reversion:
  • Don’t overestimate returns for midcaps that have run 3-4x; expect a pullback to historical norms.

10. Q&A and Rapid-Fire Picks ([110:23-112:16])

• Choose Two: CoreWeave, Meta, UnitedHealth, ARM
  • Panel consensus: Meta the clear winner. Arm second pick for AI exposure, UnitedHealth for stability if bought right.
• Retirement Allocations (for $4M):
  • Split among SPY, QQQ, Bitcoin, and two top techs (Nvidia, Microsoft).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If Nvidia sneezes, some companies will have pneumonia.”
  – Ian [17:04]
• “We can’t keep relying upon one or two... it’s overweighted... If you’re not in the Max 7, you have no value.”
  – Rashad [97:06]
• “Hold for seven years every asset that matters. If we’re in 25, hold to 32; you’ll be ok.”
  – Rashad [36:57]
• “Bitcoin is the perfect asset to do that [timing]… because… there’s actually a roadmap.”
  – Shoddy [36:40]
• On MSTR:
  “When bitcoin corrects, MicroStrategy overcorrects... I don’t think this is the bottom yet.”
  – Ian [52:02]
• On Palantir:
  “It’s like paying Austin Reeves $200 million…”
  – Rashad [72:21]
• “The rich are entering hibernation season.”
  – Rashad [41:22]
• Trading Tip:
  “Travel where the trade isn’t crowded... You want to pick a slow-moving future that a lot of people are not trading.”
  – Rashad [11:17]
• On Market Cycles:
  “Even if we hit a two-year period where the market is flat or negative, those are two years where you can build an incredible base…”
  – Rashad [36:57]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Correction & Overvaluation: 13:32–18:11
• Nvidia Single-Stock Market Risk: 19:57–21:26; 96:37–100:50
• Peter Thiel Sells Nvidia/Tesla: 40:50–45:25
• Bitcoin Cycle & Bear Market Outlook: 24:23–38:16; 81:58–84:43
• MicroStrategy Leverage Risks: 50:56–57:00
• AI/Tech Stock Pullbacks (Meta, Palantir, CoreWeave): 63:16–73:09
• Trading Strategy Tip of the Week: 11:17–12:42
• AI Bubble/Accounting Concerns: 78:07–81:17
• Energy Sector Rotation: 90:25–93:57
• Portfolio & Retirement Advice: 75:41–77:26; 110:23–112:16

Tone, Style & Audience

The hosts blend seasoned technical analysis, street-smart instinct, and banter aimed at both experienced investors and those looking to level up their game. They maintain a frank and sometimes playful tone, mixing metaphors from sports and culture but never watering down the financial reality.

Final Takeaways

• Beware over-concentration: The market’s dependence on a handful of megastocks poses risk if leaders falter.
• Don’t panic in pullbacks: Corrections are part of cycles—use them for strategic accumulation of top assets.
• Think cycles and history: Especially in crypto—study patterns, but know that “history doesn’t guarantee future performance.”
• Value disciplined, unemotional investing: Price discipline and cash reserves are essential defenses in volatile times.
• Big money is quietly getting defensive: Profit-taking and hibernation is in for the rich, so “reserve” is the smart strategy until true bargains emerge.

Next Week: Expect a big announcement and continued deep dives into cutting-edge market trends and strategies.