MM #285: Bitcoin & Nvidia in BIG Trouble?? Billionaires Dumping Stocks, & The Biggest Discount Buys

Summary

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Market Mondays #285 Summary: Bitcoin & Nvidia in BIG Trouble?? Billionaires Dumping Stocks, & The Biggest Discount Buys

Podcast: Market Mondays
Host: EYL Network (Rashad, Ian, Shoddy)
Episode Date: November 18, 2025

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Overview

This episode tackles the shakiness in today's financial markets, focusing on whether Bitcoin and Nvidia are facing real trouble amid big sell-offs by billionaire investors. The hosts dig into why valuations across the market are falling, discuss the coming AI bubble, and break down the strategic moves by major figures like Peter Thiel and Michael Saylor. Throughout, they give actionable advice on how anyone can navigate, survive, and even thrive during these volatile conditions.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Correction & Overvaluation ([13:32-18:11])

• Why Are Stocks Dropping?
  • The market is correcting after three years of 20%+ returns, a streak unseen since the dot-com era.
  • Many stocks, especially in AI, have become overvalued and are now returning to reasonable levels.
  • Ian: “People are panicking because they bought at levels where they shouldn’t be buying... The market has run up a lot, and it’s just correcting to where it should be.” [13:44]
• Valuation Bubble Warning:
  • Current conditions evoke dot-com era behaviors: heavy concentration in a handful of high-growth techs.
  • Nvidia is being watched like Apple was in the past as the company that can buoy the whole market.

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2. Nvidia’s Role & Single-Stock Risk ([16:56-18:36]; [19:57-21:26]; [96:37-100:50])

• Nvidia’s Pressure:
  • The entire market’s fate and GDP growth feels dependent on Nvidia’s blockbuster performance.
  • Rashad: “The entire US economy and stock market cannot be relying upon one company to deliver blockbuster returns...” [19:57]
• Dependency Dangers:
  • High market concentration in Magnificent 7 stocks, especially Nvidia.
  • “If Nvidia sneezes, some companies will have pneumonia.” – Ian [17:04]
• Earnings Preview (Pivotal Wednesday):
  • Nvidia is expected to report record numbers, but the bar is so high that even “perfect” might disappoint.
  • If Nvidia disappoints, hosts warn of market “pain” across semiconductors, cloud, and AI infrastructure.

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3. Billionaires & Institutional Moves: Peter Thiel & Softbank ([40:50-45:25])

• Peter Thiel Selling Nvidia and Tesla:
  • Thiel liquidated large positions (over $100M in Nvidia, 76% of Tesla holdings).
  • Rashad: “The days of 100-200% gains on Nvidia are gone... If you’re up 2,000 or 3,000%, it doesn’t make sense to hold for another thousand.” [41:22]
  • Thiel’s insider access signals possible headwinds, but profit-taking at high valuations is logical.
• Softbank Rotation:
  • Sold Nvidia to redeploy capital into new AI infrastructure but will likely need Nvidia chips for these projects.
  • Selling doesn’t indicate a lack of confidence but is strategic repositioning.

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4. Bitcoin Breakdown: Bear Market Coming? ([24:23-38:16]; [81:58-84:43])

• Current Drop Explained:
  • BTC has passed a “death cross” and is in a notable pullback phase (from ~$92k downward during the show).
  • Bitcoin operates on clear four-year cycles—a unique, almost “cheat code” for investors.
• Anticipated Bear Market:
  • Historically, after halving, BTC falls 70-80%. The current institutional backing may soften this to ~$50-60k as a bottom.
  • Hosts debate entry points, with target buy zones ranging from $53k [Rashad] to mid-$60ks [Ian].
  • Shoddy: “You could literally just...take the profit, wait on the sideline, buy when it’s low, and then just keep doing it. Because...that’s what whales do.” [36:33]
• Hold or Trade?
  • Long-term holding (“hold for seven years”) is the most responsible, failsafe advice for 95% of listeners.
  • Advanced traders may try to time cycles, but the volatility and discipline required are significant.

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5. Bitcoin-Related Stocks & MicroStrategy ([50:56-57:00])

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) Debate:
  • Heavy accumulation at “any price” exposed MSTR to risky drawdowns as Bitcoin falls.
  • Ian: “When bitcoin corrects, MicroStrategy overcorrects... I don’t think this is the bottom yet.” [52:02]
  • If Saylor can weather the storm, long-term upside remains.

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6. AI/Tech Pullbacks: Meta, Palantir, CoreWeave ([63:16-73:09])

• Meta (Facebook):
  • Despite strong earnings, down 23%. Hosts see this as a buying opportunity, not fundamental weakness.
  • Ian: “Meta is a buy. Fact, when I saw it drop 15, I bought it.” [64:22]
• CoreWeave:
  • Down 50%—expansion heavily debt-funded, using older Nvidia GPUs, raising questions about long-term competitiveness.
  • Early private investors have cashed out after the IPO runup.
• Palantir:
  • Down 16%. Valuation is “insane” (PE >180), suggesting the stock is ahead of its fundamentals.
  • Rashad: “It’s like paying Austin Reeves $200 million a year... Austin’s good, but not worth it.” [72:21]

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7. Investing Strategies in Volatile Markets ([11:17-12:42]; [75:41-77:26]; [77:58-78:32])

• Trading Tip of the Week:
  • Go where trades aren’t crowded: focus on lesser-known futures (Swiss Franc, Bloomberg Commodity Index, etc.).
• Index Investing (Roth IRA, Young Investors):
  • QQQ and SPY are recommended for simplicity and long-term tech exposure.
• Winners in Correction:
  • Microsoft and Apple called “the new bonds”: safe, steady returns in turbulent times.

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8. AI Accounting & Bubble Risks ([78:07-81:17])

• Are AI Giants “Juicing” Numbers?
  • Allegations of accounting tricks exist—mostly among B- or C-tier companies, not elite players like Nvidia.
  • Elite companies are under much greater scrutiny; scandals of Enron magnitude are unlikely.

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9. Sector Rotation, Energy, and Thematic Bets ([90:25-93:57])

• Energy Rotation:
  • As tech corrects, energy (especially nuclear) may see a resurgence. Top picks are in ETFs, but watch for emerging names to get added in the future.
• Mean Reversion:
  • Don’t overestimate returns for midcaps that have run 3-4x; expect a pullback to historical norms.

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10. Q&A and Rapid-Fire Picks ([110:23-112:16])

• Choose Two: CoreWeave, Meta, UnitedHealth, ARM
  • Panel consensus: Meta the clear winner. Arm second pick for AI exposure, UnitedHealth for stability if bought right.
• Retirement Allocations (for $4M):
  • Split among SPY, QQQ, Bitcoin, and two top techs (Nvidia, Microsoft).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If Nvidia sneezes, some companies will have pneumonia.”
  – Ian [17:04]
• “We can’t keep relying upon one or two... it’s overweighted... If you’re not in the Max 7, you have no value.”
  – Rashad [97:06]
• “Hold for seven years every asset that matters. If we’re in 25, hold to 32; you’ll be ok.”
  – Rashad [36:57]
• “Bitcoin is the perfect asset to do that [timing]… because… there’s actually a roadmap.”
  – Shoddy [36:40]
• On MSTR:
  “When bitcoin corrects, MicroStrategy overcorrects... I don’t think this is the bottom yet.”
  – Ian [52:02]
• On Palantir:
  “It’s like paying Austin Reeves $200 million…”
  – Rashad [72:21]
• “The rich are entering hibernation season.”
  – Rashad [41:22]
• Trading Tip:
  “Travel where the trade isn’t crowded... You want to pick a slow-moving future that a lot of people are not trading.”
  – Rashad [11:17]
• On Market Cycles:
  “Even if we hit a two-year period where the market is flat or negative, those are two years where you can build an incredible base…”
  – Rashad [36:57]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Correction & Overvaluation: 13:32–18:11
• Nvidia Single-Stock Market Risk: 19:57–21:26; 96:37–100:50
• Peter Thiel Sells Nvidia/Tesla: 40:50–45:25
• Bitcoin Cycle & Bear Market Outlook: 24:23–38:16; 81:58–84:43
• MicroStrategy Leverage Risks: 50:56–57:00
• AI/Tech Stock Pullbacks (Meta, Palantir, CoreWeave): 63:16–73:09
• Trading Strategy Tip of the Week: 11:17–12:42
• AI Bubble/Accounting Concerns: 78:07–81:17
• Energy Sector Rotation: 90:25–93:57
• Portfolio & Retirement Advice: 75:41–77:26; 110:23–112:16

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Tone, Style & Audience

The hosts blend seasoned technical analysis, street-smart instinct, and banter aimed at both experienced investors and those looking to level up their game. They maintain a frank and sometimes playful tone, mixing metaphors from sports and culture but never watering down the financial reality.

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Final Takeaways

• Beware over-concentration: The market’s dependence on a handful of megastocks poses risk if leaders falter.
• Don’t panic in pullbacks: Corrections are part of cycles—use them for strategic accumulation of top assets.
• Think cycles and history: Especially in crypto—study patterns, but know that “history doesn’t guarantee future performance.”
• Value disciplined, unemotional investing: Price discipline and cash reserves are essential defenses in volatile times.
• Big money is quietly getting defensive: Profit-taking and hibernation is in for the rich, so “reserve” is the smart strategy until true bargains emerge.

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Next Week: Expect a big announcement and continued deep dives into cutting-edge market trends and strategies.

Transcript

[Ian]

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[Rashad]

How y' all doing? Happy Monday.

[Ian]

We good man. We good. We we I we figured out this jet lag thing have you?

[Rashad]

Because I haven't. I'm still.

[Ian]

Oh, yes. Yesterday was one of those days.

[Rashad]

Shoddy. What's the secret?

[Ian]

Yesterday was 100 days.

[Shoddy]

You just gotta, you know, stay up and get up early, just, you know, get back on routine.

[Ian]

Yeah, the, the 4:00am Wake up is real.

[Rashad]

Oh, for sure. Yeah. I woke up 2:30.

[Ian]

That's what it's gonna be up for the rest of the day, man. What's up everybody? Hopefully everybody is good. Happy Monday. Fourth quarter is in full effect. Big week ahead. Obviously we'll talk about the, the Goliath that we'll be reporting this Wednesday.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Ian]

Shout out to Bam. It was his birthday last week. Happy birthday. We got another McDonald who's having a birthday this week. Legend will be turning three. So happy birthday to the little guy.

[Rashad]

I love it.

[Ian]

He is running around driving Mike and Jess crazy. So happy birthday to him and happy birthday to Mercedes, man. Mercedes man. Shout out to the Eyu fam. It is Mercedes birthday this week. Happy birthday in advance. Love is love. Yeah, man. We were, we were outside this weekend. Shout out to Stick Watts. Shout out to the Decking family. Shout out to Juvenile. We have had to give back this weekend actually Friday and Saturday. Always good to give back to the people. And I think we'll be doing something again this weekend or maybe, I think maybe next week we'll be doing a give back as well. It's the holiday season. Giving back is paramount and so we're gonna do our part.

[Rashad]

Get back Indictment. Legendary. That's my almost.

[Ian]

Get back.

[Rashad]

Bring a lot my arena back.

[Ian]

That is a legendary vibe, man. How you feeling though, man?

[Rashad]

Amazing. Glad to be back, man. Enjoyed our time in Dubai. So. Yeah. Yeah. God is good and so are y'.

[Shoddy]

All.

[Rashad]

Oh, and I feel like giving back today. Get your cash apps ready.

[Ian]

Cash.

[Rashad]

Oh, oh. Holiday season. Not yet.

[Ian]

Not yet, tubers. Yeah.

[Rashad]

Let us get through a little bit.

[Ian]

Of the show, please, please.

[Rashad]

And then at least halfway through some will, you know, donations get back to people.

[Ian]

It's been a while, so just bear with us.

[Rashad]

Yeah, but let's do it different this time. People who ask amazing questions will get rewarded. Okay, so if you have an amazing question about the market, trading or investing, you'll get rewarded tonight. Merit based.

[Shoddy]

Sure. So we got a lot, we got a lot to get into. I don't know what's going on with the YouTube, but I saw a video and then they would deleted the video. Now it's a new video title isn't up. So I just sent it to somebody so hopefully we can get a title up. But in the meantime, earn your leisure. We got an episode at 06:00 Eastern Standard Time on Thursday, the Brother J Majors. So he's a giant in the world of barber shop entrepreneurship and really changed the game as far as barbershop salons, suites, mixing real estate play with, with the barbers. And then he runs the biggest barber expo in the, in the country, actually spoke at. He had one in Connecticut. Over 12, 000 people came. He had one in Las Vegas, also one. Wow. So he's, he's one of these guys that had a, you know, troubled background as a youth, incarcerated, learned to cut hair in jail, actually came out, became a barber and now is a, a multi millionaire from being a entrepreneur from the barbershop game. So that's important to kind of, you know, highlight those stories because that's something that's relatable for a lot of people in the community to, you know, see like a barbershop. That's something that's like one of the first levels of entrepreneurship that people see. So see somebody scale it to that level is definitely some level of inspiration, for sure.

[Ian]

Yeah, I think it's one of the, it's one of them episodes. When you finish the episode, you're listening intently while you're doing it and then you're doing the numbers in your head as the episode's going on. You're like, man, this guy's a genius. I know this guy's a genius. I, I think there's going to be plenty of people who watch this and, and try to replicate this business model because it's such a good one and I wish we would have thought of it. I'm like, damn, this makes too much sense, man. So shout out to him, man, good brother. Too good brother.

[Rashad]

I haven't seen the episode yet, but once the integration of the real estate with the bar brand, I'm looking forward to it. It's almost like the McDonald's strategy. Yeah, I can't wait to an episode.

[Ian]

You know what makes it super dope is that there's the, obviously the real estate play and there's the skill set of being a. But he also also teaches. So he teaches people how to actually do the skill. And first they're almost like apprentices and then they come and work in the shop and try to. And, you know, he gives them guidance and tries to help them become their own entrepreneurs and create their own shops, which is pretty dope. And then, you know, they venture off of the new Students always come in and it's a profession, like we said, it's an essential, essential profession. So, yeah, man, great business model. Great dude. Definitely check that one out.

[Shoddy]

And then Wednesday we got Blackout. We back with Blackout. We got a lot to talk about for Blackout, so make sure you tap in Ray Daniels. Ray.

[Rashad]

7.

[Ian]

Oh, yes. Shout out to Ray Daniels. Thursday, I'm back. Thursday, I'm back. I'm back.

[Rashad]

Okay, I got.

[Ian]

I got my class this Thursday. Make sure y' all tap into that. It's going to be one of the ones. Man, every. Every time we. We do this has been once a month. It's been spectacular. And I got some stuff I'm cooking up. I gave a little preview to the stock club team. We're gonna go into some more depth about that. That actual company. And we just added a new one to the portfolio that we're going to be discussing. So make sure y' all tune in and. And we're going to show how to exercise options. All right. I know 99 of the time you don't do it. We will be doing that and walking you through that. So I don't really show numbers, but for this class I have to. So make sure you're there at this Thursday.

[Rashad]

Amazing.

[Shoddy]

Yes. Ey University. Make sure you check it out. Ian, any announcements? Yeah.

[Rashad]

Stock club call would be this Saturday at 5pm Central. Same link as usual. Prices will be out for the month of November this Wednesday at 9pm Central. And Red Panda Trading Tournament coming December 8, 2025. Get your affairs in order. Good luck. Big announcement next week. Get your affairs in order. December 8, 2025. Grand prize winner, 50 grand.

[Shoddy]

There you have it.

[Ian]

Okay.

[Shoddy]

There you have it. Yeah. Stay tuned. Next week, Thanksgiving week, we got.

[Rashad]

A.

[Shoddy]

Big doing something big for Black Friday. Something that's really never been done before, so.

[Rashad]

Shot of you, Rizzo. Yo.

[Shoddy]

Try, man. Try to come up with some ideas. And we can and you know, throw it up in the air, see what comes down.

[Rashad]

So y' all put some hugging emojis in chat for Shoddy. Lift my guy spirits up.

[Ian]

A lot of phone call. Listen, it's going to be an exciting one. Obviously, every market money is exciting. Next Monday gonna be one of the ones trust and believe. Phone calls were made, confirmations were made. It's gonna be a situation. Make sure y' all here.

[Rashad]

They're waking up at 3am in the morning work for sure.

[Ian]

That's a fact. That's a fact.

[Shoddy]

Okay, Trading tip of the week.

[Ian]

Hold on, man. We gotta do a disclaimer you know how this works, man. Do your own research. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with or independently research and verify any information that you find on our show and wish to rely upon whether for the purpose of making an investment decision or otherwise continue to do the research. Share the research. Let's build wealth. Let's build our brokerage accounts. Let's build our communities, build our families. Yep. You know what I'm saying? Let's go. Let's do that. Yeah.

[Shoddy]

So what's the trading tip of the week?

[Rashad]

Futures trading? Tip of the week is to travel where the trade isn't crowded. I've talked about es, talked about zb, talked about nasdaq, but a lot of times those trades can be incredibly crowded. You want to look at some assets that are not super flooded with a bunch of macro fund money, high level traders. So look at the Swiss Franc. Look at Bloomberg Commodity Index. Look at the Canadian future. Look at zn. I know they're reporting that the bond market is having its best year since 2020. Fake news. The bond market is still leaning to the downside. So while everyone's fighting over the NASDAQ and es, you want to pick a slow moving future that a lot of people are not trading. So you can be able to. It's like shooting fish in a barrel. It's a, you're able to get an easier win. Someone asked me, well, what about liquidity? Well, you're not trading 3, 000 contracts. You're trading between 5 to 50. You shouldn't have liquidity issues in any of them. But while the market is in tumult right now, you may want to look at the currency. So like the Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Bloomberg Commodity Index and take advantage of those markets while everyone is fighting for spots in es, cb, UB and nasdaq.

[Shoddy]

Okay.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Shoddy]

All right. All right.

[Ian]

Stay low.

[Rashad]

It's like, it's like red shirt and you come back play eighth grade easy money. 52, 22 and 12 look like Wimby.

[Shoddy]

So you glitching? You're glitching a little bit. Maybe the WI fi, I'm not sure but like everybody like.

[Rashad]

Dan, I want us to be great. They say I'm glitching a little bit.

[Shoddy]

Yeah, I could hear like, we can hear you. But every, every like couple is like 30 seconds or so it's like a, you freeze.

[Rashad]

It's about to be a cold winter in this market. We'll get to it. That's a fact. Peter Till, Let me connect. Elon, I just said we didn't get there yet.

[Ian]

We'll get there. We will get that.

[Shoddy]

That's a fact. So, okay, a lot to talk about. Why is everything overvalued and why is everything, is everything overvalued and why is everything falling?

[Rashad]

Things are falling because they're coming back to the prices where they should be. I'll, I'll get into it later, but this is going to be the third year that we had more than 20 return in the market three years in a row. Shot. You brought this up last year, right? The last time that happened was in the.com era. 98, 99, 2000. People are front running the gains because they know a corrective measure will be taken sometime next year in 2028. This is why Sam is trying to clean up his image and his kerfuffle that he had last week with Brad Gerstner. So that IPO exit will be okay. But there's been a lot of overvaluation and overhyped talk about AI because everyone is trying to squeeze and the gains they need in to get them through the next two or three years for the downturn that we're going to have. So are we overvalued? Yes. We'll talk about Peter Till and Nvidia and all in a second. But the market has run up a lot and it's just correcting to where it should be. And people are panicking and most people are panicking because they bought at levels where they shouldn't be buying. Bitcoin, Nvidia, Oracle, Oscar Health, everything was bought at 2 hive a price palantir as well. And when the front running ends, people begin to take profits. And as Rashad, I love when you always say there's nothing wrong with taking profit, but when you see Buffett start to ease into Google for the first time in history on the exit, Apple and Google are going to be the new bonds. Apple is projected to give 26 to 30 return over the next five years. It's 5 to 6% a year. That's the new bond market. It's a haven of safety. The market will ultimately be okay. But some of these valuations are absolutely insane. And I told you today for the price.

[Ian]

Yeah, yeah, I agree. I, I think yes, some of these companies, I see somebody in the chat put Palantir in terms of Valuations are just, I mean it is, it has run to a place where it almost feels uncomfortable. I think that the issue is that earnings has kept pace with this type of growth and at some point that has to decelerate. Right. Like we, we'll talk about this more in the show when we as we looking forward to, to Wednesday. Like when the market is priced to perfection. Right. Perfection won't be good enough. Right. So even you know this Goliath that's going to report and how it can shift the market.

[Rashad]

Yep.

[Ian]

If it does well and it has future, God, it still might not be enough.

[Rashad]

It may not be enough.

[Ian]

It still might not be enough. And that they will be dominant and the companies that are around it, the, the metas of the world. And I know everybody's like what about meta? The metas will be fine. Microsoft will be fine, Apple will be fine. But there will be some others that.

[Rashad]

The rest of you.

[Ian]

Here's a safe way to put it. Right. If Nvidia sneezes, some companies will have pneumonia.

[Rashad]

Y' all will have covet 2.0 Covid 20.

[Ian]

Right. Like it's that type of scenario in these type of markets when all indicators are pointing to all time highs and you look at the statistics and everybody keeps bringing up the dot com bubble. I don't think a crash is imminent but I will say about the valuations have gone up pretty substantially to a point where it's like, all right, we need to take a deeper look at it, but we'll see. I mean we thought something like this could happen this year. Right. When we're talking about can earnings keep up to the valuations. It happened in 24. Right. Which is why we were over 20. It's happening here and we're pacing toward another 20 year.

[Rashad]

Yep.

[Ian]

We'll see what happens in, in 1Q26. And that's why Wednesday is so important. When you're talking about Nvidia, you're not just talking about AI, you're talking about infrastructure, you're talking about cloud, you're talking about a lot of different sectors. What that future guidance looks like into Q1, Q2 of 2026 will be very, very important to see how, how this next year is going to go.

[Rashad]

This reminds me of the first year shot to Kyrie. He hit the shot of a Steph. Right. Cool. You can only go into the game winner bag so often, so I think Nvidia would do well in earnings. But if the entire market is relying upon blockbuster earnings for one company, for Equal weighted S P funds to do. Well, that's not good.

[Ian]

Have we seen this before?

[Rashad]

Yep. 2022.com era.

[Ian]

We'Ve.

[Rashad]

We've seen this a couple times. Even the max seven.

[Ian]

Exactly. Because it feels like four years ago.

[Rashad]

We were the Apple.

[Ian]

I was just. You just took the words right out of my mouth. I was like, this is how we used to talk about Apple. Like Apple fights for us, and we needed to beat earnings, and it's so dominant. We needed to do that. And even if it's great, it's not great enough. And now people talk rotation, and it's just another mag 7 that's now rotated into that spot, and now it's Nvidia. And, and even when, when. When Teal says that he's selling out his positions, he didn't just leave the Max 7 out. He said, we're gonna park it in two other Max sevens.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Ian]

You know what I mean? And so it's just interesting to see. I. I think, like I said, I think we both are in agreement. Nvidia is going to have a great quarter. And Jensen's kind of got ahead of it, hasn't he? Right? He said, look, we're talking about. We're talking about 500 billion. This is. These are not numbers to sneeze at.

[Allie Jackson]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

He want to say, I'm not there.

[Ian]

Sales like, yo, don't. Don't get this.

[Rashad]

Don't put me in the same category as y'.

[Shoddy]

All.

[Rashad]

The other little CRM.

[Ian]

Yeah, we are not the same. 500 billion is. Is different. That's more than the market cap of. Market cap of the. I think everything outside of the top 30 companies in the world, this is not the same.

[Rashad]

We got to have an honest conversation, though. Like, there shouldn't be this much in. Nvidia's my pick, My baby. I love it. The entire US economy and stock market cannot be relying upon one company to deliver blockbuster returns to move up the GDP and defeat China. It was Apple four years ago. And even that stress didn't allow Tim Cook to create what he needed to create fast enough because he had to wait to the world on the shoulders. Mistakes get made when not only are you leading hq, looking over product line, but then you have the president saying, hey, I really need you to hit a home run right now for me. It's too much pressure.

[Ian]

Can I do. I mean, would you rather have any other company be in this position? I feel like this is the company that if there was one that was primed to be in this position, this is it. The fact that they're doing this and they don't have China, right, Like they don't have that market which will be part of this. We'll see a full year of Blackwell coming up. Yeah, we understand the dominance. We watched all the other hyperscalers in the Max Sevens report before them, which is very strategic on their part. I looked at the numbers, bro. Everybody's capex did not go down. Everybody's capex went up, which talks about the demand and we know where they're shopping. And so if there was going to be a company, it would be this one.

[Rashad]

Nvidia will be fine, Metal will be fine, Microsoft will be fine. Google, dynasty of the ecosystem, Voltron, right. Build community. But the rest of the market, I'm like, even if we look at Quantum and this is not my moment to say hey, to beat up on these stocks, ARQQ is down 43%, IonQ is down 39, QMCD is down 40, RGTI is down 46. I'm looking at the rest of the market start to pull back 20 to 25% for some quality companies. That's not a good sign. Yeah, it's not a good sign.

[Ian]

And it's not just those inside of it outside of the Max Sevens. If you look at Oracle and Oracle. Oracle, right. You look at the pullback there. This is now a cloud infrastructure situation with them. If you look at Dell, right, These are companies that I've spoken about in detail and Dell will be reporting on the 25th. I'd be interested to see what their AI situation looks like in their partnership with Nvidia. They're all being affected by this, you know, I mean, but inside of that there, if you look at the memory sector, if you look at the Microns, you look at the western digitals, those have, they haven't fallen at the same level as of some other sectors inside of AI, which tells you like that demand is still there. In fact, they're actually talking about a storage. I read a article in the Journal how Samsung was like, hey, we don't even have enough right? When they said they didn't even have enough memory to sell. Then you watch the American companies, the microns of the world, the west indigenous, you sell them spike over the past couple of weeks. So it's just interesting to, and fascinating to be, to, to be a witness to it.

[Rashad]

I agree. And Rashad, I want to bring you into the conversation from an advisor standpoint. Like I'm hearing advisors say go to S P equal weighted and to now look at the S P50, not the 500, the 50. So that tells you that. And I hate to pick on Salesforce because once again I love Benioff. I know I won't be invited to dream world as a result. But a quality American company like Salesforce has no value in comparison to Perplexity Chat GPT anything that Google is doing, Apple's AI integration, Palantir and the real in the future. It's almost like they're getting reclassified as B tier when they were a tier stock. That is not good for the American economy at all. These companies have been overvaluated and if I can be very, I don't want to front run this but if we look with inflation, how much money has been printed into the economy and these companies being overvalued, it's being done so to prevent the recession that is inevitable. We've technically been right at break even OR below since 2019.

[Shoddy]

Yeah, for sure. It's interesting economic climate but I definitely want to talk about bitcoin though too before we get into the Nvidia talk in detail. Bitcoin, so interesting. $92,000 right now and it's been dropping steadily so just passed The Death Cross 2 days ago I think so Bitcoin is interesting if you really think about it because it's the only investment that we actually know what's going to happen.

[Rashad]

Tell me more.

[Shoddy]

Oh because it has like if you follow history of the bitcoin it has four year cycles right. So you could like as an exercise anybody at home you can ask Chat GBT the four year cycles of bitcoin when the next bear market will come. Previous bear market. So it works in cycles now. Anything can happen in the future but it's always repeated the same cycle. Like no other investment has ever done that. Like you can't say okay we know that Nvidia is going to do good for four years and it's going to be flat for two years and it's going to spike. We know that bitcoin works in a four year cycle. It drops very drastically, almost 70 to 80% previously. That's what it, that's what it has done follows the having. So like even if you follow it like the bear, the bear market is supposed to start next year but some, some say the bear market has already started which would be early start but it was going to start. There's almost 100% chance that Bitcoin is going to drop drastically next year. If you follow what historically has happened. So Everybody knows, well if you study, everybody knows that bitcoin is going to drop. That's kind of like a cheat code almost if you really think about it. Because we know what's going to happen now. The, the variables is exactly when it will drop, exactly how much it will.

[Rashad]

Drop, I can tell you that. But we a team, come on. So maybe next week.

[Shoddy]

So now the question is like okay, is this the start of the OR already or are we already in the bear market or is this a short term reset and then we're going to push higher at the end of the year and then next year is gonna fall, but it's gonna fall. And I even, I, I actually chat GBT just to kind of get Chad GBT's perspective on it and like it how it's supposed to fall. Following traditional bitcoins is supposed to go to 30 or 40,000 because that's 70 to 75 drop. That's what it has done historically. But most people don't think that it'll fall that far because the institutional backing now that it didn't have before, so the institutional backing up or have it around 50, 60,000, what it'll drop to. But no matter what, how you look at it, it's gonna drop. But it's already been dropping. So now everybody, it's a, it's a, it's a panic because it's down pretty, pretty heavily. And then all the bitcoin related stocks, we'll talk about that microstrategy and, and a few others, those are down. And then of course since bitcoin is down, the ETFs is down. And then whenever bitcoin goes down then altcoin market goes down also. So the altcoins are down, XRP and Solana and all and all of that. So now the main question is now we know that bitcoin is going to have a bear market. Is this the bear market? Because if this is the bear market then the intelligent thing to do would just be to wait because if this is the bear market, 90,000 is not a good price to buy because it's going to go lower than 90,000. So do we. So the, the only question now is are we in a bear market? And if we are in a bear market and bear markets with crypto usually last, that's another thing. We know how long the bear market lasts 12 to 18 months. So it's not a short, it's not a short run. Once the bear market hits, we can be looking at like 20, 27, end of 2027 for a full recover to all time high. But another thing that we do know about bitcoin is that it always goes up.

[Ian]

So history has shown us that.

[Shoddy]

That's what I'm saying. So we know that in 2028, 2029 is going to be higher than what it is now. But all of all of these things lead to a pessimistic outlook for bitcoin for the next foreseeable future unless we get an end of year pump. And that could potentially change it for the short term. So are we gonna get an end of year pump or are we just gonna just ride this out for to 2027?

[Rashad]

I'll answer both. Meek Mill, Rick Ross One of my favorite songs. Don't panic. Don't panic. Now is not the time to panic. The notion of value or like true value of what we. We could get back to the April lows of like 77,453 last month. I did tell you we was going to slide into these 90s. Now is not the time to panic. I understand there's a lot of people who are saying the 30 and 40,000 price range for bitcoin. Remember last year or early this year I said Michael Sailor needs to be very careful because the only thing that I think would drive that price that low is if they want to get him out of that seat that he's in. I think that he has a plan to thwart that regardless. But I don't think we'll get to 30s or 40s. Should you pick up some at 77 and some change? Yes. Prices are in stock club. Worst case scenario. I have this going to.

[Ian]

Say it 50. Nah, I'll say my number and then you agree 50.

[Rashad]

I'll see you with the hoot 53s.

[Ian]

I had it. I had it at 60. 63 to 67.

[Rashad]

Yeah, 53, 524.

[Ian]

Worst case you're going lower than that.

[Rashad]

But and here's the thing, as an investor, I'm not saying absolutely we'll go to for those you know, I mean. But please write this down. You want to assume the worst cases basis first, not the best case. A lot of you are panicking because you bought it last week or two weeks ago. You should have bought the majority in April. And in addition with the having cycles, some want to be the preeminent force in crypto because they've seen his plan work. I kept saying I hope that he doesn't become new the new Cathie Wood. But when the institution going back to the Program conversation. When they want the strategy and the IP to use it for their own devices, they're going to find a way to, to do so also too. If we're going to have a cyclical downturn and every now we're back to risk on, maybe there will be some flushing out. But I want to be very clear it's a mistake if you are a believer in it to get rid of it now too many people ask should I sell what I have now and wait to get in, continue to buy? Now the mistake that I think Sailor made is that he kept buying at any price. The price where you buy an asset matters a hell of a lot. But worst case scenarios. 53 but if you believe in it, we can have a nice bump and I think at the right price, definitely at 50s and at 65 the institutional, the Saudi fund is too many big players that will absorb the coins at that price.

[Ian]

Yeah, that's why I said I was looking at the charts yesterday. I had it around 67. Yeah, I mean if you, I'll, I'll use the phrase that history shows us rather than, than kind of what you were saying that we know because somebody was like oh they. No, history has shown us that in these cycles specifically what Shoddy was saying, it was like there's just four phases right now based on everything we've seen that we're in phase three. And so here's some things, some key indicators that you should find in, in phase three which is like six to 18 months after having like we saw it having happen last April. So we're right mid, mid cycle sharp corrections. And I don't know if we've had a sharp one yet. This feels like a pullback but consolidation is that next piece. And so that means you'll start to see it move sideways. Right. So if it's at 80, it's definitely sharp.

[Shoddy]

It's 30% drop.

[Ian]

Well we've seen steep. I'm, I'm saying for crypto we've seen that go down to 70% correction.

[Shoddy]

Correction is not 70%. That's a, that's a 4 if it's.

[Ian]

In the definition of correction even still consolidate.

[Rashad]

70% is collapsed though.

[Shoddy]

Yeah, that's not.

[Ian]

But that's what I'm saying. We, we can't even use collapse in, in terms of Bitcoin because we, but.

[Shoddy]

That'S what it does because the correction, it's in, it's in correction mode right now.

[Ian]

I'm, when I'm saying correction, I don't want to confuse it when we're talking stocks.

[Rashad]

Right.

[Ian]

Because bitcoin, the way that it moves is volatility is, is very different.

[Rashad]

So that, that.

[Ian]

Correct. It could be a 70 correction. Like it could happen. Whereas if we said that for a stock and this stock is about to.

[Shoddy]

Die, 70 correction is crazy.

[Ian]

But we've seen this happen multiple times. Right. So we got consolidation, declining height, which we'll see Shoddy.

[Rashad]

I feel you though.

[Shoddy]

That's a hell of a correction.

[Ian]

Discouragement on social media like these are the signs that you'll see. I think what's different about this and why I don't know if it gets down to 50 is because of the political environment that we have. The pro crypto legislation that has been coming forth and you're starting to see the global response to it right now. Countries are looking at how we can use this to our advantage. You're starting to see institutions, JP Morgan, obviously they're talking about state. The environment around institutional and political is a lot different than it has been in the past. So that that case doesn't. I don't see it having the harsh 70 pullback. That's why I said the 67 is kind of that range. If it does. But if it's something you believe in, you stay.

[Rashad]

The only exception is if we hit global global recession end of next year.

[Shoddy]

Or, or, or political or because there's going to be midterm elections. So there could be, there could be harsh political. This is the thing too. You gotta look at it from a, from a pessimistic stamp. Bitcoin is gonna go up over the course of time.

[Rashad]

Absolutely.

[Shoddy]

From a pessimistic standpoint. From a short term perspective, this is the most pro crypto government that we've ever seen and it's on a 30 pullback currently. So nothing that the administration can do, nothing that the administration has done or can do is going like Bitcoin just moves on its own accord and institutions. That's why they get in and they get out now. Going against all logic when it comes to investing. I think bitcoin is asset that you can actually. You don't necessarily have to hold it long term.

[Rashad]

Okay, I hear.

[Shoddy]

Talk to me because you, because you know what's going to happen if you follow like if you follow the history of it. So like half me, half amazing. I think that's his name on Instagram. He was on, on YouTube. He said well y' all said to buy it. Well the thing is if you buy it, if you brought it at 80,000 and then it went up to 123,000. It was a 50. You made 50 of your money. Now if you know that it's going to drop, you have one or two options. Just wait it out and then let it come all the way back down and even less and just hold and then just dollar cost down as you believe in it. Because it's going to go back up eventually. It's going to be $200,000 eventually. Right. If you want to be a little bit more risky, you can play the profit game. Take the profit, wait on the sideline, wait for it to come down, buy, buy when it's low and then just keep doing it. Because you could, you could literally just. That's what whales do. That's what, that's what major. That's what BlackRock does. Like if you really want to be.

[Rashad]

Most people don't have a discipline though.

[Shoddy]

They don't have the discipline. And that's why I'm not advising people to do that.

[Rashad]

Thank you. Hello.

[Shoddy]

But if you are going to do that, Bitcoin is the perfect asset to do that. Because like I said, there's a road. There's a, there's actually a road map to follow to do that. I'm not telling you to do that. But if, to me, if I, if there was any asset in the world where I would do that, it would be bitcoin.

[Rashad]

My stance, my final thought on this hold for seven years every asset that matters. If we're in 25 hold to 32, you will be a. Okay, too much panic. Because even if it falls 60 the upside you're going to be sick. Missing out on 600%. True. Same for stocks. Even if we hit a two year period where the market is flat or negative, those are two years where you can build an incredible base to get 5 or 6 or 7,000 shares if you play your cards right. And in 20, 28, 29 and 30 you will be a. Okay.

[Shoddy]

What you're saying is the most responsible thing to say and it's the correct thing for 95 of the population.

[Rashad]

Are you talking about to the bad getters?

[Shoddy]

But you also understand that where you buy is extremely important and can determine a tremendous difference in your percent gain.

[Rashad]

And if you want to know the best prices where to get in, go to Ian invest.com and join the stock club. Perfect. Thank you.

[Ian]

I. I just be mindful of saying that we know what it is going to do history. Thanks.

[Rashad]

I do.

[Ian]

Yeah. But until, until, until it deviates. Right? Because. But it hasn't it hasn't done it yet but it's still a short history.

[Rashad]

Right.

[Ian]

So this isn't like the S P right where we give or the Dow track this for 85 years or over 100 years. This is 15 years.

[Shoddy]

Even 100 years is relatively short period.

[Ian]

That's what I'm saying. Well we have a better data set when we talk about over 100 years as opposed to 15 years and it's so new and we, we don't know like you said like the political climate. We don't we. It's just a lot of factors that we don't know institutional is in it. We don't know who the whales are but we've, we history has shown us that it does have a pattern that we can follow. I'll say that and you have your.

[Rashad]

Hand raised but we do know the historical patterns of the firms that have been around for 100 years.

[Ian]

That's true. That's. That's true.

[Rashad]

So I like how we talking like it's just us in Dubai. We know. So if you go look at act as a world class investor do it in Claude Pro preferably what are the historical Biden levels and holding cycles for Citadel, Piper Vanguard, Black Rock, State Street Fidelity, Invesco that'll help give you an insight how long they'll hold how many coins they'll pick up because a fund and and we're in the the war games of investor which I love everyone wants highest return now it's bitcoin and prediction markets because now the the economy is contracting so much that everything is an option at this point no pun intended. So you're going to now even see at some point hedge funds ramp up the futures and options integration in addition to sports betting at some point with the prediction market cycle because they have to get higher return so if you know what the historical patterns and how long and seasonality and when they're going to hold it'll give you an idea for what's going to happen. But remember I said three years ago this is gonna happen and everyone called me crazy.

[Ian]

There was an article today that it's funny you brought option they said that Michael strategy is is the option for bitcoin with no expiration date.

[Rashad]

Michael Saylor I pray that your relationship with Jared and Trump is okay also too if you if you go read them emails you can kind of see the foundation of. I love this show live. Oh shot are you cooking? And I'll see you've been studying. You call that 50 ball easy. I'll see you.

[Shoddy]

The 50 ball. The 50 ball. Hit the like button button and share please. Okay. Peter Till. Peter Till dumped all of his Nvidia position I think over $100 million/76% of his Tesla sake. So does he know something that the rest of us don't? Is this the exit of the year or a historic mistake in the making?

[Rashad]

Whenever. And this goes back to the bur point Softbank. When these headlines come about there's two questions you have to ask. One, that they initially invest into the equity or asset and then two, what was the reason they're looking to get out now the million dollar question. Everyone wants to know my full thoughts on Peter Tail. I'm talking about the stock club Saturday. But this does remind me somewhat of 2022 when Chamath, Bezos, Zuckerberg, everyone was clearing house. There's a reason why I want to be very clear. Because like Nvidia is like one of my core legacy picks. The days of 100 and 200 gains on Nvidia are gone for probably the next two or three years. You're not going to get 200 year over year return, are you? Still going to get incredibly high return for sure. But if you don't know the reason because Peter ran a macro fund for a while, left took over government, you know, read his book Zero to one. His whole plan is in there. It's not as black and white as what he sells. So I should sell. You can argue Tesla's doing better than ever. Given this year's climate and what he went through, Tesla's doing pretty strong. Nvidia is a company that's going to lead America into like this AI revolution and sustain the GDP of America for the next five or six years. So I don't think that's a signal to get out. But softbank selling and him selling a few others I think is they've maximized their game and you have to know Bill and Melinda Gates taking money off the table for Microsoft and people are preparing their war chest. This is hibernation season. Put it in chat. The rich are entering hibernation season. Most of the meat is off the bone for paws. We need to be immature for Nvidia if you've been in for six or seven years. So if you're up 2,000 or 3,000%, it doesn't make sense to hold for another thousand percent just to be able to brag in Abu Dhabi or Dubai how we did. And I know, I heard one of y' all was upset about that. You Supposed to be our friend. Don't do that.

[Ian]

Don't do that to us.

[Rashad]

Please don't do that.

[Ian]

I want to break that soft big down for, for a second if I could. Because when the headline broke it was like, oh my gosh. Softbank liquidation liquidated their position in Nvidia. Which sounds like alarming on the surface, but when you pull back the layers, you realize that this is part of that circular rotation of money that we're talking about. Well, they pulled, they sold their stake because they needed money to help build out their infrastructure in their deal with Oracle and OpenAI. Well inside of that infrastructure, guess where they're going to spend their money back with Nvidia to get chips. Right. And so it sounds alarming, but really it's just going back into that circular rotation. The Peter Till thing is interesting because he is a tech heavy guy and when you see tech heavy guys pull out of tech companies, yeah, it does raise a flag. But I think what you said is important. Understanding that when you take a profit, that's not like something you should be upset about. Like you're making profit. Right. You don't lose by taking profit. The other part is I actually looked up when they entered the position. The first public filing for his firm was in Nvidia State was in Q4 of last year. Now that means he could have gotten it in Q3 of last year when the average price was about 117 or it was in Q4 where the average price was 135 to 140. Either way you're up 50 to $60. When you have over 500, 000 shares. You've made profit, they've taken profit, you've won the game.

[Rashad]

Now I would be worried if he exited out of his Palantir position. Now that would terrify me. He didn't do that.

[Ian]

Right. I mean he, he has ties to that, that, that company. So I mean people are positioning themselves to have what I think is the most important thing in any environment and that's having reserves. Right. Like, right. The, the next report will be. And you probably won't see this if he enters the position again at some point in the near future.

[Rashad]

Right.

[Ian]

By the time we hear about it, it'll be a quarter or two after they've actually done it. So does it raise a flag? Yeah. Does it mean you just sell off your Nvidia position? I'm not, I still believe in it. I still think it's going to lead the US economy for sure for the next two or three Years have the largest market cap or you know, even price targets have been raised to 250, 230 ahead of earnings, even though it pulled back today. So I, I'm watching the race flag, I'm studying the race flag, but I'm still staying strong in my position.

[Shoddy]

This is also just goes back to my point about bitcoin.

[Rashad]

Tell me more you cooking tonight, my boy.

[Shoddy]

You like who this is like the ver. All right. The average person. But okay, this is something that when we haven't mentioned here. Peter Till has a high level government access. He's privy to information that none of us are privy to.

[Rashad]

He is the government leader program, literally.

[Shoddy]

Perhaps his protege is the vice President of the United States. And he has a very close relationship with the administration. So he knows the economic headwinds, he knows, he knows data, he knows job reports, he knows what's coming down the tunnel. Six months, 12 months in advance. Nvidia, once again, it's like bitcoin. Everybody thinks that Nvidia is going to go up over the course of time. I don't think anybody thinks that Nvidia is just going to fall off a cliff. It's the biggest company in the world. What short term?

[Rashad]

He hasn't hit his cap for the year. Absolutely.

[Ian]

You think it stays here?

[Rashad]

It'll trace a little bit lower. I got it going at least to like one worst case scenario, like 160s. But, but that top of 212, 19. That, that's the high for the year for sure. For sure.

[Ian]

Oh, okay. That's what I was saying. You see, you see it not crossing 200 by the end of the year.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Shoddy]

So even, even short term pullbacks could potentially be harmful for a portfolio that's extremely large. And you might see opportunities in something else where you can have, in the, in that short term pullback, you can have short term gain. So they, it's not necessarily like, it's neither wrong or right as far as he might be seeing something where it's like, okay, I'm not just going to lose $50 million just for the hell of it when I could make a hundred million dollars in here in two, in, in three days by doing this. I'm gonna move this position, move back. They're moving their money around a lot. And that's the same thing with bitcoin. Wales, Wales was doing that since the beginning. They would, they would sell large positions, get back in, move like capital.

[Ian]

Yeah. That's why I said the reserves is the most important thing because it allows you the luxury and the privilege to say, all right, I see an opportunity, I'm going to make an opportunity happen for myself. That's happened. I mean that's happened to me a bunch of times where it's like, I'm like, do I have to sell something to create reserves or it's something about to expire where I'm going to have reserves.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Ian]

Like early on I'm like, just have reserves. Right. Because you don't want to sell out of something and say, oh, I'm going to miss an opportunity. Just have the reserves in the event that the opportunity presents itself. And, and that's what it, whether it's Bitcoin or whether it's Nvidia or whether it's Meta.

[Rashad]

Right.

[Ian]

Like just have the reserves ready because opportunities are going to present themselves and.

[Shoddy]

Then maybe one day we can have this conversation on Blackout. But at some point we, we have to be honest with the audience.

[Ian]

About.

[Shoddy]

There'S a, there's a stock game that's being played that's a different game.

[Rashad]

Tell me more.

[Shoddy]

Would you like to have the conversation on here or Blackout?

[Rashad]

Let's get canceled.

[Shoddy]

He was with somebody. They were saying like people moving.

[Rashad]

It's tears.

[Shoddy]

Four billion a day. That can guarantee 25 every single year.

[Rashad]

Regardless of anybody regard what the market down 52%.

[Ian]

You can't. That's not even a conversation.

[Rashad]

But okay, let's take it from the 10, the 10 million to the 90, 100 million range. Right. There's this different risk to reward ratios that they're looking at. And back to your point, their returns are baked in regardless. There is no downside. There's no downside, no doubts.

[Ian]

There's some guys like that. Yeah, yeah. Travel.

[Rashad]

And also like when you scale up, once you get to that past that 20 million mark, you're not going through a 15 drawdown for nothing. Especially at 500 million a billion. There are no temper. You have to like up to like what Michael Saylor's going through. That's bad pricing. He didn't have to go through that though. He don't want to play the game, but then you got to play to get that.

[Shoddy]

Let's talk about that. Michael Saylor, is this, is this the opportunity of a lifetime to buy something at a 52 week low or has he miscalculated his, his formula as far as what he's trying to do here and was a little bit too aggressive?

[Rashad]

We're going to talk about the other thing on Blackout.

[Ian]

No. Nope.

[Shoddy]

Blackout.

[Ian]

No.

[Rashad]

Let's get Canceled. Wrap it up.

[Ian]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

[Rashad]

Hey. If the dislike gets you strong, we wrap it up. You know, I mean.

[Ian]

I think some things were said in confidentiality, but these things already. And left unknown for others.

[Shoddy]

It's like the Da Vinci Code.

[Ian]

You see what I'm saying? There's this.

[Shoddy]

Matrix.

[Ian]

Yeah. The, the Michael strategy thing is, is, is one of the, the main reasons, the main issue I had was the buying at any price point.

[Shoddy]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

I believe with that.

[Ian]

I believe in, in bitcoin. I understood his strategy. I just didn't agree, wholeheartedly agree with buying at any price point. Right. Because history has shown us, right. When bitcoin corrects microstrategy over corrects. Right. And when bitcoin rebounds, it doesn't necessarily appreciate at the same time. And so if you're buying all the time at any price point, then you're going to be in debt when it pulls down. Right. And so how do you get more? You sell shares. But that cycle is just it. It's a vicious cycle that I'm not sure. I mean he's a brilliant guy. The strategy is. I didn't, I didn't really like that much. And now you're seeing it. So is it an opportunity? I don't think this is the bottom yet. That's my only thing. Like I don't think this is the bottom for MicroStrategy because I don't think it's the bottom for bitcoin. Right. I think it pulls back a little further, which means that MicroStrategy pulls back even further. But on the upside you get in at the right time. Right. And I'm sure he's going to say he has a number for could be an amazing investment. Right. Because for the pullback on bitcoin, I think the, the return on, on the appreciation side for micro strategy is like three times. Right. It's like a 1.5 to 3 times the rate. So it's a hell of a return on the way up. It's just that where's the bottom?

[Rashad]

I'll take the other side. Not the argument, but the conversation we're going to talk about. This is us and Dubai, right? Let's do it. Yes. I hate to buy it any price point philosophy, but he watched Cathie Wood get slaughtered, picked up the strategy. There was a time when government officials was not trying to hear what Michael was saying until it was election time and now they're trying to front run him. So if I tell you Third Ward is the Place where everyone should invest and no one listening for three years. And then all these institutions come into Third Ward and try and buy them before. Well, I have to buy up everything in advance to secure not only my philosophy and strategy, but my company. So I think he's baking in the games for the future. Do I think the stock is going to go down more? Yes. 12350 I think is where the worst case scenario where it could land long term. Is this thesis right? Yes. But as smart as the funds are around the world, they often see trends incredibly late. But when they do, they encroach viciously. Jamie Dimon shouted by JP Morgan went on a campaign worldwide saying I hate bitcoin. Even Charlie Munger. Oh, bitcoins. Catch it. And all right, meanwhile, you're going to see in Omaha that strategy change. And now JP Morgan is talking about tokenization at scale.

[Ian]

True.

[Rashad]

Got to protect the IP at all costs. So can the stock go lower? Of course, I think it will. Especially if we hit any recession or whatever if they redefine what a recession is. But long term, I think he'll be fine if, if he can survive the storm.

[Ian]

What about the idea of competition? You just brought up jp which is what made me think of like there's more competition in that space where people can have exposure to bitcoin outside of micro strategy. More ETFs are coming to fold. What about the thoughts around having competition now with your depreciating assets?

[Rashad]

It's gonna be tough. That's why my, my main thought is 90% of what you know, never tell.

[Shoddy]

But, but then also he becomes a bitcoin lender at some point. He's, he's has more bitcoin than almost anybody. So strategy bitcoin goes up. His, his, his bottom line goes up because he holds so much bitcoin. That's one way. But then also the power goes up because there's a limited amount of bitcoin.

[Ian]

That's.

[Shoddy]

So he who holds bitcoin is kind of like a king. And I've seen this happen before. That's why I said like, yeah, we could say history because we can't say anything for certain, but feel confident about kind of knowing what's going to happen with bitcoin. Because I saw it happen two times already.

[Rashad]

Yeah, I saw it.

[Shoddy]

I already saw this happen two times.

[Rashad]

Yep, Happened.

[Shoddy]

So seeing it two times already happened, pretty, pretty confident that it's going to happen again. And if it happens again the way it happened the last two times, if he can keep the bitcoin because that's a problem too. If he, if he's forced to liquidate, then he might have to, you know, compromise his position. But if he could hold the fort and he can keep the bitcoin, he's going to, he's going to be in a very powerful position long term.

[Rashad]

Yes, absolutely.

[Ian]

And, and so here's, here's the other part of that, right? If it goes to consolidation like it does, right. How long can you sustain negative quarters before you have to make a change? Right? Because if it has a consolidation phase over here that you got four negative quarters, you've been buying at the peak, right. That means your debt, those balances are going to be thrown way off. How long can you sustain that before you have to start saying, hey, this strategy may not work.

[Rashad]

It depends on this is what client dispersion matters a lot and client selection a lot. If he has a loyal fan base and loyal investor base for a while. Not that he needs my advice, But I think MicroStrategy also needs a product and Mike is smart enough to, if he invests into other assets, he can see something that's coming that other managers may not. That will allow him to ride the storm out. But historically, once again going to Claude act as a world class investor. Tell Me the top 10 closed end funds and what were the returns over a 10 year basis. This story has been done before a bunch of times. Josh Brown came on and we talked about it and we've had our pow wow about how this could end. But my main concern for Mike as an amazing investor, same as with Kathy, in order for them to reap the benefits of crypto and all of its power, you can't have an outsider run it. So he's going to have to find a way. And he's been playing ball a little bit, but not enough. Got to be careful. And this is why I always say whatever your strategy is that quiet, gotta keep. I know you gotta raise capital but man, every person that I remember who talked down on Michael Saylor and Cathie Wood six years ago are now trying to recreate their strategy.

[Ian]

Bank.

[Rashad]

So you'll be fine long term?

[Ian]

Yeah, long term. I, I like it short term. They gotta withstand some, some storms.

[Rashad]

Hibernation season, somebody.

[Shoddy]

Question from the audience. What do you guys take on XRP over Bitcoin in a drop?

[Rashad]

I don't know if I would do that. Yeah, I would do bitcoin first if you're looking. Well, it depends if you're looking at a capital amount of capital that you're able to deploy. So let's say you had 100 grand and if you're looking at percentage returns if you just want to it depends how many coins you want in in what your personal goal is. But broad broadly speaking I wouldn't do XRP first. I would do bitcoin first and then do XRP probably third or fourth but but it's definitely in a four to look at dark horse even with that what they're supposed to do for the economy. The banks want to find a way to XRP their way into the government to solidify their future. I've never heard this much talk about stable coins and tokenization and three years ago every damn bank on earth hated these talks.

[Ian]

Yeah JP's right there. They're they're right on the 2026. It probably will happen.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Ian]

For all that talk for all the since 2017 it's a hoax.

[Rashad]

Also this other part not to talk your book some people talk your book the other part of the game and say no I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going and then here we go. Diversion.

[Ian]

Yeah well Larry Fink say how we added to retirement portfolios Crazy.

[Rashad]

Crazy.

[Shoddy]

Or maybe it is a hoax. Perhaps the biggest hoax ever.

[Rashad]

Wait wait wait what part I can't wait till Langley decide to let everybody know who was who created who created bitcoin. I don't know half any. Talking that program. I'm not bigger than that program for sure.

[Shoddy]

Xrp.

[Rashad]

I don't know why people Rashad Rash.

[Ian]

Dennis Ramen did it.

[Rashad]

Not this week. Scotty.

[Ian]

You know Scotty.

[Rashad]

No, I'm cool Combination combination. Langley though.

[Shoddy]

So Langley. Why did Langley create bitcoin?

[Ian]

I don't know Langley as in a street that somebody lives on.

[Rashad]

Luke Langley.

[Ian]

Oh thank you. Thank you.

[Rashad]

Yeah he's a play for the bulls and Hellfini.

[Ian]

Yo Luke Langley is crazy.

[Rashad]

Don't get me I'll down some hills. This ain't one like that that Tim Cook me to hurry up Succession plan has sped up for Apple. I bet. I bet Tim Cook. I'm sorry.

[Ian]

All praises the hoodie.

[Shoddy]

This is my man ladoon's hoodie. Covered by God is the is the company I think it's covered by God dot com.

[Rashad]

Yep. I believe you need to print some more of them shout out to doom. Yeah.

[Shoddy]

Okay. Meta down 23%. Palantir down 16. Core weave down 50. So are those early signs of the AI tech bubble and let's talk about each one individually. We can start with Meta. They dropped and then they continued to drop. So is Meta in trouble?

[Rashad]

I'm going to say it again. After earnings, it was a canary in a coal mine that kind of let you know what was to come. I don't understand why they're in correction. Like that's fair, it's prime. I think they are calibrating so well now. I don't think they're deserving of a 2025 drop at this moment. But I think back to your point, I think there's some signals in the market amongst the firms, the governments about what's to come and for them to deliver great earnings and have this results tells you what's to come. They're signs always. Apple having issues this year sign. Right. But I think Meta definitely in this class is incredibly strong. Hell of a turnaround from 2022. I think it's unfair, but I think it's just like general market conditions that's dragging them a hell of a lot lower.

[Ian]

I'm with you. 100 meta is a buy. In fact I, when I saw it drop 15, I bought it. Now it's down 23. I might have to add some shares to the portfolio again. I, I like the aggressiveness of Zuckerberg. Their CapEx spend, you know, they said they're increasing it. They're all in on this. They understand the severity of, of winning this, this AI race. They have the innovation, they have the data. When you're talking about all the platforms that they have at their disposal, they have products now that the glasses are doing pretty well.

[Rashad]

Glasses are doing incredibly well and they're.

[Ian]

Expanding their data center expansion and their vision for AI, all pun intended is very clear. And it's going to cost and the understanding of that and the fact I think, you know, people took took his can cadence during the earnings call a little to heart and said he was a little too lackluster and a little frivolous about how he's speaking about this CapEx.

[Rashad]

But investment, that's the part.

[Ian]

That's it.

[Rashad]

If he did okay, and I was super critical of the Metaverse investment that in that story but he's investing into the right things at the right price at the right time. To not be left behind when Apple didn't and they get punished makes no sense. You can argue I won't do it this week. But this year Zuckerberg has been better than Cook. There's no question.

[Ian]

Oh his the, the resurgence has been incredible. Right. Like we're talking. I mean it was down in the 490s. I know it pulled back obviously during the, the deep seat thing, but it's rebound. It was at 7 over like 750 at 1.749. And obviously it's pulled back here. And you know, it's part of one of those golden rules of investment for me. If, if an asset that I truly, truly believe in is at a discount if it's between 20 to 30 and then I also see the options down 30, 40, this it hits the check it check, check, check. All I gotta do now is execute and Meta has done that and it's done it again. I might have to reposition it.

[Rashad]

But yeah, operating margin 45 net margin is 32%.

[Ian]

Yeah. Which is, which is the opposite for a company like all again, all these companies not created equal. Core Weave, we've been speaking about it and I know it's one of the companies you just said, but we've been saying six months, six months. That's been our golden rule. Six months came in September. It's been trending downwards since they reported earnings. And I like Core Weave, I've always said I like it. The only thing that troubled me was the debt, right? Like that matter, their data center expansion, it's not. They had to take on debt to expand. Now they do have Nvidia as a partner, but when you think of how they're using Nvidia, right? Like Nvidia is supplying GPUs to them, but they're not the top of the line GPUs, right? Like it's not Blackwell, it's not Blackwell Ultra, it's not Ruben. They were using the H20s and so the hoppers for those who are in the know. But when you think about that, right, like people are going to lease that compute, but they're leasing it at a lower tier model, right? So that almost becomes a depreciating asset every time the company puts out a newer version. So by the time you're using the hopper and they've already had Blackwell by the time you got Blackwell and you're leasing and then it's Ruben, it's Rubella and so that becomes a depreciating asset. That business model is interesting. But the debt that they're taking on to, to expand is concerning because they have to generate a certain amount of revenue just to offset it. And it doesn't look like they're doing that right now, which is why you saw the stock fall so greatly From I think 149. I think it's trading at like 70 now. And so that, that's my, my, my slight issue with Corey. I think it'll be here obviously as Nvidia is has a vested stake in them. But that's my major concern record.

[Rashad]

Even with that core weave having a partnership with Nvidia. Corey's a mistress with a lot of debt. Just because you get to hang out once a week, it does not mean that your primary investment. It's over with all y' all who kept acting like y' all on the video. It's over with all the oldest some dead is good. Just a prime example of why it's not.

[Ian]

No, you're saying they're over with Chloe.

[Rashad]

Not saying they're not a class. No, no.

[Ian]

I started it by saying. But it's a lot of people who.

[Rashad]

Were like what they're going to.

[Ian]

Yeah, you know what? Because people people traded it and they did make money. So I'm not mad at those people who like hey, I was part of the IPO when it was at 40. Then it ran great. I'm all for it.

[Rashad]

That's dope if you're in the private market. But even the people at the private they got rid of it that it's a shot. That's the other stock game.

[Ian]

They had a sell off. That's why I said we got to wait six months. Because after that six months hold up. We're going to see people say all right, we're taking profit. We've made money. We've had it pre ipo. This is a nice run up. Let's. Let's take some profit off the table for events like this where it's now trading at 70. So we'll see where it heads over the next couple weeks. We'll see Wednesday again will be a teller. Right.

[Rashad]

They'll bounce back. Eventually get back into the 90s 100 range. But they that run up from 40 to like 170.

[Ian]

Yeah, it was crazy.

[Rashad]

Overvalued chat.

[Shoddy]

Put in chat, hit the like button and share. What about Palantir?

[Ian]

I think Pounce's issue is his valuation. What's the number? 17 something.

[Rashad]

1700 too high. Like great company. I don't like what they do. I'm starting to like Alex a hell of a lot. As the CEO. I won't lie. I don't like the mission because of how it affects black and brown people. But when it ran from 584 up to 207 great returns if you made money on it. I'm incredibly happy. But I don't know technically. Okay. If Palantir is publicly traded Anderil getting as much coverage and lore around it. It's scary. If I'm a Palantir owner for sure now is there an ecosystem of both of them can thrive. And I think of course Alex is a Elon. Ask CEO where he's driving a lot of the value through his vision, work ethic, selection and curation of executive executive management team for sure. But the valuation on this company is. Is too high. And I even think if you look at Peter Thiel and Alex would. If you got them in a private conversation, they would tell you the same thing. Like the true range. They should be in the 1:21:30 range. If they were there, there would be more room to. To go. But they hit their high for the year for sure.

[Ian]

The forward PE is 185.

[Rashad]

That's insane.

[Ian]

So I mean the, the revenue. The revenue isn't matching that just yet. Will it at some point.

[Rashad]

Right.

[Ian]

We're talking about the amount of government contracts that they will secure. And I'm not just talking domestically. I'm talking like global government contracting that I'm sure that they, they'll play a role in. Yeah, that number. That, that, that. That revenue has to come in at some, at some point that could even matches. I think they're. They're a victim of. Hey, this thing has run too high. People are talking about an AI bubble. This is AI tech in the. In the sense of having defense tech. Who is the poster child for high valuation? I think they're the poster child. And this is, this is the repercussions of it. Just pull back here.

[Rashad]

After the Nvidia trade took off so well, everyone was looking for the next thing to park money into Great company once again, don't like the mission. But a lot of the benefits they received was the carryover or spillage from people who have fomo, from Nvidia who was looking for the next thing to invest in. But if we have a correction next year, I think it'd be his first test as a CEO on a global scale. And if he can do what Zuckerberg did in 2022 and figure it out, he'll be a. Okay. But the valuation is just, just insane. It's like paying Austin Reeves $200 million a year. Austin's good, but not worth it.

[Ian]

Austin Reeves averaging 29 a game, bro.

[Rashad]

Is he worth 200 million a year in this NBA?

[Ian]

He might.

[Rashad]

A year.

[Ian]

No, you said 200 million a year? Yeah, a year. No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

[Rashad]

Yeah, brought her. Get back on the court.

[Ian]

No, no, no, no. He's back. Somebody asked about Robin Hood. Is it. You know what, it's crazy. A year ago, almost a year to the day, we sat down in Miami at the, at their conference and Robin Hood was saying that $38. Obviously we saw it run up to over 155. It's pulled back a little bit here. I still like Robin Hood. I told you it was one of those companies. I was like, damn, I can't believe that we didn't invest. I didn't personally invest in it and I should have. But yeah, this is one of these environments. I think there's a cycle that happens when you start to see people pull back out of tech a little bit. And I think they have characteristics of fintech in a sense. And so there's a pullback there. But people usually rotate. Retail investors have helped this option. Training hasn't helped us. Their new platforms and new initiatives have helped them. I still believe in Robin Hood. It's almost getting to a point where, yeah, it's time for us to, to maybe grab a position here. So. Love Robin Hood. Shout out to the question.

[Rashad]

Rashad, when you were with Vlad and we did the interview, this eye test, right? How well do you think this company is going to do over the next three or four years? Because there's certain people you just don't bet against and I think he's one of them. But I wanted your take of it. If he's one of those entrepreneurs that you don't bet against at all costs.

[Shoddy]

Yeah, for sure. He's definitely a very impressive entrepreneur, extremely smart, has a clear vision of where he wants the company to go. Very forward thinking, very open to new ideas. You know, got his ears to the streets, got a good team around them. So I think Robin Hood is going to be one of these companies that's going to be here for a long time. They democratized investing and you know, you got crypto, Adam betting and all types of stuff to their platform. So I think they just did. They're one of these companies that just keep. Keeps evolving over the course of time. But switching gears. Somebody had a question in chat about 3, $7,000 to a Roth IRA. Where should you invest? That was the question. He put it a few times. 7K Roth IRA. Way to invest.

[Rashad]

Try. I think you should take that. You don't feel like advising no more? Come on.

[Shoddy]

I feel like if you, if you, if you're young. I'm assuming that he probably is some 30, maybe 40, I don't know Millennial. That's the demographic of people that watch the show for the most part. QQQ and SPY make it easy to make it easy split it, split it 50 50. If you want to be a little bit more aggressive you can, you can do 7030 to QQQ way but long term I think that you got to believe in the technology companies that have built the ecosystem that we're, that we're in today. So if, if you believe in all of those tech tech companies that's going to keep powering not only artificial intelligence but just technology, every area of technology, then something like a retirement plan is a perfect place to invest in the QQQ because that gives you long term horizon and all of those companies are still going to be here and when you retire and if not then they just reposition it with new companies. The new technology companies that don't that'll take their spot.

[Rashad]

So invest with Invesco and original invest in AI. Invest with Invest. You don't even have to think if Meta takes the lead when OpenAI becomes public when perplexing.

[Ian]

Yeah just balanced too hold Invesco. The QQQ is very balanced, right. I think the largest allocation will be like a 10% and then you'll see like a 9.5 and so it's very balanced was as you see some other ones that are extremely top heavy where it's like large allocation 2020 and then everything else trickled down. QQQ is very balanced across the board with, with some of the max seven.

[Rashad]

Other text and I gotta say two tactic index, no stress.

[Ian]

I keep telling you please, please, please, please.

[Rashad]

Microsoft and Apple looking sexier than ever with all these valuations being corrected. Right? Hold on, hold on.

[Shoddy]

Michael Griffin. Congratulations and yeah send me a copy please. DM me and I will send you my PO Box.

[Rashad]

Justice Culture. Can you send something to his PO box for me please? I paid a monthly fee. Hey you get hey, you can't take food off a man's plate. Not putting on back, you know, I mean in every aspect of life.

[Ian]

Replace the, replace the fruit from the garden.

[Rashad]

You gotta cover the vehicle.

[Ian]

Please, please the fruits in the garden at all times.

[Shoddy]

Somebody, somebody put a super chat about this. So Michael Berry says that big tech is using accounting tricks to juice the AI profits are AI giants faking the boom and what the question in chat was is how can you tell if a paraphrasing. How can you tell if A company is actually reporting fake numbers or not.

[Rashad]

That's a great question. Short answer is some, not all. Some are going on a four year schedule and some companies are electing to six years and seven years. That's out of my wheelhouse. I'm not an accountant. But the six year and seven years. Tricky. Act as a world class investor and an analyst at Ernst and Young. Which companies and put in 10 companies that he's talking about to see is there some bloat? Is there some accounting issues? I think it's a little bit sensational. Would I be surprised if a lower tier company is doing it? Is Nvidia doing it? No. So I really don't care about.

[Ian]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

What anybody else. Now is there a B player or a C player who has named themselves the next Nvidia or next amd Possibly.

[Shoddy]

That.

[Ian]

That would be the question. At the highest level it's tough because this, the, the microscope is so, so intense. Right. But we've seen, and I mean most recently if I think last year we saw super micro. Right. When we were trying to figure out whether they're going to be delisted or not because of some of the reporting on the K1s. So does it happen?

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Shoddy]

Yes.

[Rashad]

The elite doesn't have to do it. I will be very clear about that.

[Ian]

Yeah.

[Rashad]

We haven't had an accounting scandal of that magnitude since Enron and after Enron happened oh, the government came in and this. Different laws and different penalties for that now. Yeah.

[Ian]

So the elite One coffee that was. Yeah, it's Lucan. Same thing.

[Shoddy]

But they, they was, they was baking the books.

[Ian]

They b. But they're back now. That's a crazy story. So like yeah, Lucan was baking the book, picking the books in a real.

[Rashad]

Way and China been baking the books on that real estate too.

[Ian]

Yeah. But here's the thing. If you look at the recovery that they've had, they weren't traded on the NASDAQ or the S P anything like that but they did get delisted. But. And now they're in the U.S. they're infiltrating the U.S. with stores. There was A again I think and maybe it might have been Forbes or maybe Seeking Alpha where they were talking about the imprint and how, you know, the competition for Starbucks has changed dramatically. Not just them but Dutch Bros and Duncan.

[Rashad]

Dutch Bros is on fire.

[Ian]

This is what I'm saying. Like the competition has changed. You know, obviously Starbucks is you know, at the top of the mark with 15000 locations but people are looking at it like hey, we don't need to have your Internet service. We don't need to sit down anymore. Let's get our coffee.

[Rashad]

And let's keep saying once they kicked on that kicked us out of them locations. Yeah, it's been up forever. And some things are a pear trade. If you're a long lily, you can't be long. A diabetes factory. That's what Starbucks is. Starbucks the. The third home a say Less and Soho House. They took your whole model. You have no elevated spaces, but you're selling disease in a cup mask as coffee.

[Ian]

Oh shoot. Somebody said they was. They. They've been in Lukin for a while. They finally made profit. Yeah, that was. That's a. That was a long journey back.

[Rashad]

Hut.

[Ian]

That was a long journey back.

[Rashad]

Journey back.

[Ian]

That's what I'm saying.

[Shoddy]

Bitcoin. Bitcoin is currently dropping as we're doing this episode. Dropped $3,000 since did the episode. It's almost at 89,000. It's at 90,000 now. Okay, so it has. It's dropped 4, 400 today. It's dropped like $3,000 since we started this episode.

[Rashad]

So y' all should listen the first time they saved you a lot of pain and agony. Yo, I called his price a month ago. What should they do now? Is the question. What's the price? Hey, listen to the first time. But what's the next level I said that we'll probably get to. It's a lot of pain and not listening. I know it may sound crazy ahead of time, but if I'm going on public airways and public record to say this like there's a reason why and this isn't the last. And remember when bitcoin used to not be paired to our stock market. Risk is back on going into the holiday season. You don't want to report massive ass losses to your clients while Saudi is raising or not raising. But they're deploying capital everywhere. Where our firms aren't just battling with each other. You gotta battle with the Saudi investment fund. How are you gonna do that if the returns are high and you don't have as much capital? So now it's back risk on. Look for the places to invest in in worst case scenarios first. And if you're not buying at a great price, you're going to get chopped up. You're going to be cannon fodder. I'm sorry. We are in an investing war. It is us and our brightest companies versus China. China's model is open source. Ours is closed source. Even our open AI Is closed source when it's supposed to be open?

[Ian]

Yeah. There was a dope video about open source versus versus close. And if you really break it down and pull back the layers, our strategy has been created, figure out how to monetize it and deploy it, whereas China's strategy has kind of been open source. Like you said. Let's figure out how to build it.

[Rashad]

Let everybody build.

[Ian]

Everybody build. See what's really going to work, and then we'll figure out how to monetize it.

[Rashad]

That building is like the App store.

[Ian]

We've. We've put the. Let's get the capital first and they put the. Let's get the ideas, the creation first and figure out how to get the capital on the back end.

[Rashad]

You got to get the capital fast to keep the person with the capital from killing you.

[Ian]

That part.

[Rashad]

Because if he. If that was really his idea, he wouldn't have had to answer for Brad. That was a defensive answer.

[Shoddy]

Eli Lily. Well, Eli Lily split soon.

[Rashad]

Shot you. Good.

[Ian]

Please give us. Give us context. Ian.

[Shoddy]

That was it.

[Rashad]

He saved me. He pulled me out the fire.

[Ian]

Brad Pitty man.

[Shoddy]

That was a question from the chat.

[Rashad]

Is Lily gonna split?

[Ian]

I hope not.

[Rashad]

If we're gonna be very honest. Investors won't say it publicly because it's not a kind thing to say, but stock splits are really for weak companies or when you have a great class of investors leaving out. I hope they don't. I hope they don't for the most part.

[Ian]

Not always, though.

[Rashad]

Thank you for saving me out the fire again. Thank you.

[Ian]

Okay.

[Shoddy]

Yeah.

[Ian]

Yeah. Because there are a few companies. You know, Lily's is interesting. Will they split? It'll be interesting to see Novo. You know, I was. We saw the announcements last week when it's in terms of healthcare and Novo and Lily came to the forefront of that. But Novo just said that they're now reducing their weight loss drugs to independent, uh, healthcare issuers. And so I think the price.

[Rashad]

My Lord.

[Ian]

Well, here's the thing. So, like, I'll be interested to see Lily's reaction to that. Right. Because this is the same GLP. It starts at 549, and now they dropped it to 199 for the first three months, and then everything after that is 349. Lily, obviously, this is their direct competitor. Do you think they'll respond to that by lowering their prices as well before we see what happens next year when health care plans can now add it.

[Rashad]

Only inferior products and inferior companies lower prices as a primary strategy. It was a mistake when When Tesla did it. And I stated that because if you're going to go from luxury to economy, there's a bunch of people that go that are going to be disgruntled forever. I think too many products have become luxury products out of inflation led reasons. But a great company or like Blackwell, Blackwell Ultra, they don't have a superior product. Doesn't have the issue. Like if you're lowering prices as a first determining factor, there's always someone who will undercut. Like even for me.

[Ian]

Right, Right. I think that's. That's their product. Not to cut you up, but I feel like they're a product because of the generic GLPs that were coming to market.

[Rashad]

Right.

[Ian]

So it's like how do we now compete with the generic GLPs when they're selling it at such a discounted rate? Do we make our product at a lower price? Does is the chain reaction now that Lily now brings it down.

[Rashad]

Bring it down. But undercut Novo. I think that would be a mistake.

[Ian]

Okay.

[Rashad]

And we're gonna be very clear. Nope. This is Novo's main driver of revenue. It's not for Lily. A suite of going back to open source, having a suite of products and services to offer. There's a reason why Eli Lilly is like one of the best run companies that most people. If the CEO walked by Adam fast, fast. Same with Dan Cathy. You wouldn't know who he was. They just stay focused on and shout to everyone who works it literally. Like they have a great lineup of products that I mean they have two products that billions of people. They don't need to. I don't think they need to cut and it would be a mistake to do so.

[Shoddy]

Red Panda stock club where the prices are always right.

[Rashad]

If I made you money, please put yes in chat. I told y' all last month this was gonna happen. Called a meta price before bitcoin price.

[Shoddy]

Eth.

[Rashad]

Told you, told you. And I told you today what a real bitcoin price is going to go before we got on here.

[Shoddy]

Well, that goes back to my thing with bitcoin. It's like that's what Red Panda is built on. Right. Dollar cost averaging, holding long term. That's the best way to go. But if you can know or have an idea you're gonna make, you're gonna make tremendously more money if you're able to buy at the right time.

[Rashad]

Absolutely. Absolutely.

[Shoddy]

That's a fact.

[Rashad]

Yep. And you don't have to worry about what Peter Till did today or last week or Michael Burry shuts down this fund.

[Shoddy]

And that's, that's what Red Panda. That's what Red Panda does. Red Panda, right. It's. It gives you prices of when to buy the stock.

[Rashad]

Red Pandas are fun for the people, tell you exactly what to get in, what to get out, three prices, a load to boat price, a swing trade price and quick entry. And most importantly, the insights of what's happening in the world one to five months before it happens. I've been told y' all about oh boy in the emails funding Bitcoin two years ago. You're crazy. You're a conspiracy thing, huh?

[Ian]

Okay, you talking about Bubba.

[Rashad]

It's a deeper, darker criminal link.

[Ian]

Allegedly.

[Rashad]

No pun intended.

[Ian]

Allegedly.

[Rashad]

What do I know?

[Ian]

Somebody real quick, while you read, somebody asked about Oklahoma because they did report last week another one of these valuation companies, right. Have. Does the valuation match the actual company's output? Oklahoma.

[Rashad]

Oh, Oklahoma.

[Ian]

Oklahoma. Ok. Lo, we talked about how who's going to power, who's going to get to nuclear first they have the head start. They look like they're going to be the leader. Obviously all these other companies we talked about Constellation with Microsoft trying to power back nuclear. Oklahoma will probably be the first one to get it up and running. But it takes a lot of time, man. And I said we don't have time as a variant that we can use to our advantage. We have to get these things going now. So you saw them pull back. Will they be gone? No, this, this is a company that's going to be here. But like I said, the valuation is high. We saw it happen with Palantir. Palantir will be here. Ogle will be here.

[Rashad]

Energy.

[Ian]

And you saw today, right, this is that, that cycle of pullback and tech. What happens to financials, what happens to consumer staples, what happens to energy? You saw the XLU went up today. Obviously as that pullback and tactics happen. Energy will have his day. It's going to have its day. And you can see the writings on the wall. None of this happens without it. And so that's inside that, that scenario as well. But yeah, put that. If it's not on your watch list, put it on your watch list.

[Rashad]

But even.

[Ian]

No, I said I keep seeing people put it in the chat. So that's the rundown on that one.

[Rashad]

Two things in line, if I can real quick. Rashad, all energy companies are not created the same.

[Ian]

Absolutely.

[Rashad]

So same with that. The top two in the space invest in. Another thing you need to learn is mean reversion. Like stocks have a historical performance And I've said this since the beginning of the show. If a non exceptional stock goes up 3x or 4x in a year and it normally does 25, it's going to revert back in half or probably 40%. Don't get so high on thinking you're going to get 300 return on a mid cap stock in the middle of Kansas. It's not going to happen long term.

[Ian]

All right, I'm just going to put an asterisk next to that because what you're saying is absolutely true when you look inside the etf. So even if you look inside of xlu, the etf. So that is.

[Rashad]

They'll tell you. Thank you.

[Ian]

It'll tell you the two. But so there in energy is very interesting because it's not traditional energy in the sense of like hey, obviously next era is in there. Constellations in there. G even over is not in there.

[Rashad]

Right.

[Ian]

Which is a company that will be a player. Oklahoma is a company that will be a player. They're not inside the ETF as of today. Yeah, I would assume at some point they will be. So there are. This is like one of those asterisks where it's like yo, look at the top two and shoot, really study those. Energy is very different because how we're consuming energy, the power grid is going to change, how much consumption we'll need is going to change. Right. All those things are changing for us. And so I feel like those ETFs will change as well. So just be mindful of that and.

[Rashad]

Be mindful of the power of the lobbying power and energy and who they're invested in. Once again go to Chad GPT. It'll tell you now this is in 1999 or 2003. You have every resource tool. Like of course you don't have Bloomberg level access, but Claude and GPT are like Bloomberg adjacent. Wide chart adjacent for sure.

[Ian]

Perplexity. They actually did a study on the top gbts for financial research. Yeah. Perplexity deep seat was like number two. It rated the lowest which was interesting.

[Rashad]

Sam.

[Ian]

Just for financial advice.

[Rashad]

Yes. Yeah.

[Ian]

Like they had it pick 10 different like equities to invest in over a 12 month period.

[Rashad]

Yeah, yeah.

[Ian]

Interesting.

[Rashad]

I'm gonna put my questions for Ray Daniels and Chad GPT though I'm not perplexing.

[Ian]

We need the deepest.

[Rashad]

How you portfolio construction, how you make this work, my boy?

[Ian]

When we talk about investing long term. Seven years. Let's talk about seven years.

[Rashad]

14 years combined commitment, experience.

[Ian]

The portfolio is well tested. That's that's the definition of stay low key. Firing for sure.

[Rashad]

Had no clue. I text my boy, like, what boy? What? All right, y' all can send your friends, cousins, grandmas into the chat.

[Shoddy]

We're gonna.

[Rashad]

I'm gonna cash up soon.

[Ian]

So it's that. It's that moment in the programming.

[Shoddy]

What do you think about the Epstein files?

[Ian]

I think they're gonna get released.

[Shoddy]

Well, they're definitely gonna get released, but what version?

[Rashad]

I'm glitching.

[Shoddy]

Oh, no version is gonna get released.

[Ian]

I'm not sure at this point. Right. He's, you know, he's finally. And when I say he. The. The president is now saying, hey, release the files. They probably have been put together in a way that doesn't incriminate him. I'm assuming if he's ready to tell people to let him see what's happening.

[Shoddy]

Well, he had no choice. Republicans had a mutiny.

[Rashad]

Can we talk about that on blackout? That's almost over with. Y' all better put another world COIN mtg.

[Shoddy]

All right, Cash Apps is going crazy. Any questions from the audience? Any questions from the audience?

[Rashad]

Rashad, how you know 50 though not sent because. But 50 for Bitcoin. I know at certain times a year you get up early, you get back on your editing, and you go GPT crazy.

[Shoddy]

I got a plan.

[Rashad]

Sometimes in life you gotta just adjust, right? Inspiration everywhere.

[Shoddy]

You gotta.

[Ian]

All right, we. We got to talk about Wednesday before we go. We got to talk about Wednesday.

[Rashad]

Wow.

[Ian]

Yeah. We got some time.

[Rashad]

This one by fast.

[Ian]

So. I mean, this is the Super Bowl. This is every quarter.

[Rashad]

Oh, for sure.

[Ian]

This is the Super Bowl. So Wednesday. I mean, we'll be watching. The entire market will be watching. Are we witnessing a dangerous single stock dependence or is Nvidia still the AI king that can carry the entire market on its back?

[Rashad]

I think they can carry but starting to get some exhaustion there. We can't continue as an economy and as a stock market. We can't continue to rely upon one company and not even sector rotate, but single stock rotate. All dependence of gains and calmness upon one stock. It used to be Apple, now it's Nvidia. It may be open AI in the future, but we can't keep relying upon one or two. 2. Even the creation of the Max 7. Great strategy, but that's. It's overweighted. It's overweighted. It's almost made. If you're not in the Max 7 that you have no value.

[Ian]

Yeah. Remember when it was Fang and then we had to go to max7 here's what's @ stake and this is why Nvidia is pretty impressive. It's the Nvidia, the company is the largest contributor. This is some statistics to the S P 500's earnings growth. It's the largest contributor to the Nasdaq's returns year to date. It's a bigger driver of index performance than any single stock in the last 25 years. It is responsible for a massive share of global semiconductor capex and it's the backbone of corporate AI spending forecasts for this year and next year and without.

[Rashad]

It would be in a recession if.

[Ian]

And this the question will be Wednesday because I think we're all in agreeance here that I think they're going to report great numbers, I think they're going to have great future guidance. But again, when the market is fixed to perfection, perfection may not be good enough. Here's what happens if it does do that. On the positive side, semis will grow.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Ian]

Clouds cloud sector will grow. AI infrastructure will grow. The S P itself. Right. Because of how weighted is it. It is inside the. The index will grow and we're going to see that fair and greed index shift. We'll see the VIX come down based on this report. If it goes well, if it doesn't now, if it doesn't, if good perfect isn't good enough, there's going to be some pain. There's going to be some pain. And so all those factors that I just said, Timmy's clouds, AI infrastructure, the S P, all of those. If Nvidia doesn't perform well and doesn't have, if it, you know, trades sideways, great. If it ticks down into the 170s we could be in for some pain.

[Rashad]

Either way like when I used to act up in like Kmart back in the day and my dad like yo, when you get home you're gonna get it. Even if they do great Wednesday, next, next quarter after this ass whooping time for the market. For sure. I forgot that'd be the word. Go to sleep, fake sleep. Get up. For what?

[Ian]

They've been on a run. I mean they've, they've performed quarter after quarter. I feel like they've carried the market for sure. How long can this run continue? You know we, we talked about a year ago when they had a 230 growth inside their data center business. Now that's going down to 80, I think 79 last last quarter. So it's still a great return. It's just not as great as it once was. And I mean you're talking about a 5 trillion dollar company. So those numbers will come down based on just the market capital of the company. But a lot's at stake. A lot of that stake. Yeah.

[Rashad]

The, the years of 100, 200, 300 growth are done and I think for most big companies the highs for the year have been hit.

[Shoddy]

Somebody, somebody said invest in Bitcoin ETF a good alternative. So you avoid the volatility but you get the same volatility. But the investment with the ETF thing you do invest in bitcoin because it attracts bitcoin. So you're not really getting less volatility. I'm investing with an ETF than you would with a additional Bitcoin. The government is now open. Do you think, what do you think will happen when jobs report and other numbers are released with bitcoin? No, no, that's another separate question.

[Ian]

Yeah, we missed the CPI. We missed all that. We missed the jobs report.

[Rashad]

153000 job cuts in October 175 increase from a year ago. And from what I have been looking at the last six or seven days, those numbers are underreported. Is the true number probably is a 220 change from last year. Abysmal.

[Shoddy]

You want to talk about the stocks of the future that you posted on your, on your post on Instagram?

[Rashad]

Let's do it next week for the big thing. And I'm gonna really do this one though. Oh oh, the quantum stocks y' all want. Not gonna. Sorry, I changed my mind. Gave you fire tonight. Right. And cash app. Sorry habibi.

[Ian]

Nope. Habibi.

[Shoddy]

Thoughts on Exxon?

[Ian]

I mean all the, all reliable Exxon, Chevron.

[Rashad]

I love all the old Rockefeller companies that they broke up but still exist in the Rockefeller Foundation. Rockefeller y'. All.

[Shoddy]

Next time it'd be good somebody said TSP or ira. If somebody, if they contribute into your tsp then that's always going to be beneficial. So if they match and if your company's going to match then that's going to be helpful.

[Ian]

Yeah.

[Shoddy]

You think the Fed will cut rates? I'm assuming they're.

[Ian]

You know what the. There was a 95 chance early in the month that there was going to be a rate cut in December that has now dwindled down to like 60%.

[Rashad]

Told you.

[Ian]

Yeah, yeah, we'll, we'll, we'll see. I, I guess when we start seeing some of these, these numbers come back. Like you said, the jobs report CPI we got. This is. I know we talk about tech a lock but this is a big retail week as well. Right. So you got Lowe's reporting TJ Maxx, Target, Walmart, those are all reporting this week. And so when we talk about consumer spending we talk about cpi. These things matter when when the Fed looks at all right. What is the state of the economy? Are rate cuts necessary? Yeah, so we'll see.

[Rashad]

Man, Target CEO I know you take over soon. You better go apologize to every black and brown person you see on the.

[Ian]

Face of the first order of business.

[Rashad]

Before y' all go out of business. First order of business while Walmart has a new CEO. Talk about a tell of two retail companies. They're getting close to their 2018 lows if they keep it to space. Tough, tough, tough.

[Ian]

Yeah, Palo Alto is reporting as well and I know it's a company we talked about inside the cyber security space. They were reporting on Wednesday after close as well.

[Shoddy]

What's the third best investment you ever made?

[Rashad]

Third, that's a great question.

[Ian]

Damn.

[Rashad]

Like in the stock market it just.

[Shoddy]

Said third best investment.

[Rashad]

I mean invest into the partnership that doesn't get taught like the creation of Voltron doesn't get talked enough about as a hedge in our community. Every other community does incredibly, incredibly well except us. The more of us that do well is an impenetrable moat.

[Ian]

We gotta get to it.

[Rashad]

It's not like Buffett and Munger lifetime partnership that matters. That's a part of the reason why they were able to have the success. Greg has to find his lifetime partner at Berkshire to make sure that that keeps going. So yeah, partnership matters.

[Shoddy]

Is gold gonna correct next year?

[Rashad]

It's a great question. Could if, if we go risk on but looking at like the current levels where gold is could it correct from the highs of this year as possible and like 36, 82 worst case scenarios will go go to but is gold still a great investment long term? Yes. And here's the truth. All the assets are so tightly wound together with the exception of the bond market. If one thing goes down, everything's gonna go down. That's the only downside of hyper concentration. If you don't get in at the right time, everything's going to be drugged down. There's no separation in market anymore. It's like in the NBA. Like everyone plays the same way, same step back saying Euro step move, same combo. Right. Everyone's investing the same thing. So there's no divergence in strategy anymore. Also too if you're a great investor and trader. Well everyone's pro bitcoin, pro Nvidia find the next hundred bagger. Now's the time to do the research on that. My heart wants me to tell y' all what I think it is, but my mind and my mom tells me to keep it to myself.

[Ian]

Yes, sorry ladies and gentlemen. We, we definitely have seen the Netflix bit. Yes, it split today. Yes, yes, we were with Netflix is in the portfolio. We've spoken about Netflix spoke about it last week prior to the split on. On it's future guidance in terms of what it has to offer. I know it lost. It just lost the, the fight with Javante and Jake Paul. I think he's rescheduling with Anthony Joshua now that'll be on Netflix. So they still get a heavyweight belt.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Ian]

Obviously the fourth quarter is when their big shows will be coming back. They're already gearing up for Stranger Things. Like it's a whole rollout that they have. Definitely big on Netflix. But we'll see. Like, like Ian said, sometimes splits don't always work out in the favor of the company that split and they have just now done the. The 10 to 1. And so if you had one share, you now have 10.

[Rashad]

Yeah, right.

[Ian]

If you had 20, you got 40. Now even in. In options world, if you had one contract, now you got 10. If you had two contracts, now you got 20. So just be mindful of that. But yeah, definitely long term on Netflix. Still believe in it still is the leader even with Disney now Disney's about to cross 200 million on a streaming platform with, with Hulu and ESPN combined. Netflix is still a leader. Is pretty much the only one that has figured out how to make this thing profitable.

[Rashad]

Who the CEO Disney.

[Ian]

Bob Iger.

[Rashad]

Man, that's time to wrap it up, my boy.

[Ian]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. We can't do that to Bob.

[Rashad]

Bob, is that it's been four negative years.

[Ian]

No, no, I'm saying he was, he came back to intern like on the intern basis. But we just never really figured out what the succession plan was. Remember we had this discussion like yes, Bob was great for the company. What's the succession? When he left, there wasn't one. Then he had to come back and he's trying to help the company. I think they're going to figure out this ESPN thing shambles too now that they charging for it individually. But yeah, I still don't know what the succession plan is. Who, who, who will be next as the head of Disney?

[Rashad]

We don't know how much Bobby can pay per year.

[Ian]

Let's see.

[Rashad]

Sell off into the sunset. My brother go over there with Bezos and with the new startup he working.

[Shoddy]

On, person said if you have $4 million. Oh, it's a retirement question. $4 million. And they plan on retiring for the next 20. For the next 30, 40 years. Me personally, 40, 10. 20. 30. I think 40 in SPY, 10 in Bitcoin, 20 in QQQ and 30%. And two stocks.

[Rashad]

Two.

[Shoddy]

The two. The two tech stocks. Nvidia and Microsoft two tech two index.

[Rashad]

Equally weighted 25 each.

[Ian]

I got 4 million. Congrats.

[Rashad]

For real. Hello.

[Ian]

Yeah, congrats.

[Shoddy]

Hello. Hello. All right, y', all, it's been real.

[Rashad]

Cash apps have been sent. I appreciate y'. All. Tune in same market Monday's time, same market Monday's channel next week and we'll do it again.

[Ian]

We got to do it. Got to do it.

[Rashad]

Yeah. Rashad, we got. Yeah, we got cooking 50 ball.

[Shoddy]

The 50 ball play.

[Ian]

This was interesting question. I. I'd be interested to hear both of y'. All. Y' all take. Out of these five companies, you get to choose two as your best buy.

[Rashad]

Gotcha.

[Ian]

Core Weave, Meta Iron, UnitedHealth, ARM. What you got?

[Rashad]

Meta and Meta.

[Ian]

Only Meta.

[Rashad]

Only Meta. United Healthcare. I would only buy if it touched that low or broke that low again. And that would probably be for 25 run. Going into potential storms, you can only invest into the ones that are guaranteed to hit a shot for you. I don't think Iran's at United. Isn't that Oscar. I know some of y' all kill me online for that. Oscar. Health is up 5% for the year. It's a bond. I like what you're doing with. I do the same thing for. My dad was in the dad in law was in office. Right. Except 5% for the year, down 26% for the month.

[Ian]

No, you're choosing one.

[Shoddy]

Yeah. You can't go wrong.

[Ian]

We gotta choose two, though.

[Shoddy]

What's the other ones?

[Ian]

Cor Weave, Meta Iron, United Health and arm.

[Rashad]

Sometime 1 =2. One super baddie is like. Yeah, but that's here.

[Ian]

This isn't equally weighted, right? Like, that's a max 7. The other ones aren't. If. If I had to choose one that's not meta. I. There's something going on at UnitedHealth. I just keep seeing it come up. Not saying that that's the one I'm choosing, but I just keep the noise around it of it having a return to some sort of. Of steadiness is. Is getting louder.

[Rashad]

It has highest probability. They need another executive, though. This isn't my theme for the year, but it just went out this way.

[Ian]

Yeah, if I. I've taken Meta, obviously, and then I would take arm. I still think the AI rate this, the AI space is not done yet, so I would take those two.

[Rashad]

If Meta. If Zuckerberg was CEO of Apple, you think Apple would have had a better year this year? Last two years.

[Ian]

Yes. And it's had a pretty decent year.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Ian]

It didn't start off. It didn't start off great. It's kind of like Amazon is like it didn't have a great. And then boom, earnings happen. Oh, oh, Amazon, Google, same thing. Like we're starting to see, you know, these 20 returns now for the year for some of these companies.

[Rashad]

And not that you need another operations person, but us have no clue why they haven't given Sheryl Sandberg 300 million just to come write some over there. You're not buying perplexity. You're not buying comments. You're not.

[Ian]

So are you gonna buy Snap.

[Rashad]

No. No.

[Ian]

Shout out to everybody that. That. That was tuning into that.

[Rashad]

Kyle, she can. Y' all put up the prediction market for when Tim Cook gonna leave so I can buy.

[Ian]

Noise is getting louder. The noise is getting louder. Then the noise is getting louder around that as early as next year. That. That is the. The Latest update.

[Rashad]

Mostly 26. Oh, yeah, it'd be into. Yeah, it'd be into next year, allegedly.

[Shoddy]

Next week. We got something big, big announcement next week. Be here early next Monday market. Monday's big announcement.

[Ian]

7:55.

[Shoddy]

Make sure you tune in the blackout and earn your leisure this week. It's a lot going on, man. Stay tuned.

[Ian]

Yeah, man. We we'll be back Wednesday, obviously with blackout Thursday. Earning leisure class on Thursday. Eylu. And we got stock club this week.

[Rashad]

Yeah, Stock club Saturday prices will be out for stock club this Wednesday at 9:00pm Central.

[Ian]

Yeah, man, we appreciate y' all wholeheartedly.

[Shoddy]

Eyo, options class Thursday and also a big, big day tomorrow. Shout out to all our Latinx supporters out there. You deserve to be rich. New York Times best selling book. The Spanish version will be released tomorrow. Yes, sir. So, yeah, the Spanish. The Spanish version of you deserve to be rich will be out tomorrow.

[Ian]

Go support that.

[Rashad]

Sure, go support that.

[Ian]

Everyone deserves it, right?

[Rashad]

For sure.

[Shoddy]

Eyl.

[Ian]

I did it in Spanish for you.

[Rashad]

Yeah.

[Ian]

It'S been real. I always say this, but I want to remind people, please reach out to your people. You never know with one phone call, one text, just to let somebody know that you're thinking about what it can do. I'm going to continue to encourage people to do that because it's very important. Spread love, show love, give love. Sometimes it comes back, but that's not what we're here for. Love is love. Be good to each other. And final word.

[Rashad]

You deserve to be rich. And if you don't listen the first time to me, you deserve to be broke. I mean, that's as Hawaiians will say. Oh, God. On phone him grave. I told you, listen to the first time because we ain't doing this all 20 the markets. What do you think of Warren Buffett? He passed. No, but when 27 come wrapping it up, oh, God. Gonna be right in Japan, China, somewhere, them other, you know, the outer wall. Play, play for over to BD. Call me. I need to be with them 500 million. I ain't playing this reception.

[Ian]

Shout out to BD. Shout out to Beanie and Brady. Congratulations. Cool. Congratulations, y'. All. All right, man, we'll catch you. Peace.

[Rashad]

The Bronx. You deserve to be rich. Play. Mercado. Oh, the car from Carvana's here.

[Ian]

Well, will you look at that?

[Rashad]

It's exactly what I ordered. Like, precisely.

[Ian]

It would be crazy if there were any catches.

[Rashad]

But there aren't, right?

[Allie Jackson]

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