Market Mondays Ep. 299 — The Iran War🚨, Oil Spikes, & AI Layoffs | What It Means for Your Money & Investments

Date: March 3, 2026
Hosts: Rashad Bilal, Troy Millings, Ian Dunlap (EYL Network)
Episode Focus:
How current global conflicts, the rise in oil prices, and the wave of AI-driven layoffs are impacting markets—and what it all means for your investments.

Episode Overview

In this packed episode of Market Mondays, the team dives deep into three major topics currently making headlines:

• The escalation of the Iran war and its effects on global markets
• The spike in oil prices and economic implications
• The trend of AI-driven layoffs, with a focus on Jack Dorsey’s bold workforce cuts

The hosts break down what these pivotal events mean for stock market investors, discuss real strategies for turbulent times, and answer key investment questions. A special segment features New York State Comptroller candidate Adam Boenke Deco, unpacking the critical role of state pension management and wealth-building opportunities.

Major Themes & Key Takeaways

1. AI Layoffs & Workforce Evolution

Key Segment: [09:00]–[27:34]

• Jack Dorsey's Workforce Cuts:
  Jack Dorsey, inspired by Elon Musk’s aggressive cuts at Twitter/X, cut 40% of his company’s staff to prioritize efficiency and profit margins through automation and AI. The immediate effect: stock gains, showing Wall Street’s approval for such moves despite their social consequences.

  • Ian: “He's just merely adapting to what the environment is telling him to do... It was necessary… [for] higher profit margins.” [09:37]

• Macro Trend:

  • Tech and multiple Fortune 100 companies are quietly planning multi-year staggered layoffs, buffered against public backlash.
  • "Every major tech company on earth over the next four years is going to let off a majority of their workforce… they're just staggering it so they're not demonized in public." — Ian [13:18]

• Broader Job Market Impact:

  • Growing disconnect between employment numbers and job quality/new creation.
  • “42% of new grads can't find a job. Like across all industries. Think about how terrifying that is.” — Ian [19:51]
  • Technology displaces jobs in both high-skill (education, medical) and low-skill sectors (e.g., driving)—and not enough new opportunities are emerging as before.

• Market and Social Risks:

  • The increasing pace could disrupt not just individual careers, but consumer spending and economic stability if not managed.
  • “If people lose jobs, then people don’t have capital to spend… with all the conflict we're seeing now, if inflation starts to rise, we got a huge problem.” — Troy [14:10]

2. The Iran War & Geopolitical Shockwaves

Key Segment: [51:16]–[65:48]

• Escalation and Market Response:

  • Despite major events, including the assassination of the Iranian Supreme Leader and retaliatory strikes, the market’s reaction was muted—surprisingly resilient.
  • “This has been priced in already… it's interesting that it happened on Saturday and not Friday… by the time we got to the futures market on Sunday night, it popped up but is reverting to the mean now.” — Ian [53:05]
  • "Do nothing… don't let the drama move you. The market is resilient." — Troy [55:18]

• Wartime Investing & Morality:

  • Classic defense stocks (Palantir, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics) popped in anticipation, but much of the ‘easy’ profit opportunity occurred months ago for insiders.
  • “The real gains are in the private market—public trades in war are already priced in before the news hits.” — Ian [70:19]

• Long-Term Lessons:

  • Investors should focus on ‘war-and-AI-proof’ companies: names like McDonald’s, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Nvidia.
  • “Build an AI-proof, war-proof portfolio. That is my investment advice of the year.” — Ian [65:18]

3. Oil Prices – Where’s the Danger Zone?

Key Segment: [28:46]–[36:51]

• Thresholds for Market Stress:

  • The Trigger: $93.50/barrel is the crucial oil price to watch; markets get shaky at this level, and real economic pain historically comes between $110–$120.
    • “If we get to $93.50, it will start to have some negative effects in the economy… $80 is not that.” — Ian [28:46]
    • “110–120 with historical data—that’s cautionary, that's red flag time.” — Troy [29:37]

• Trading & Investment Tips:

  • It’s too late for a quick oil trade unless you catch the move in the first 10–15 minutes of futures.
  • Heavier bets now might risk downside—oil is likely to revert back down [$66–$74 range].
  • “Any illusion of crude going to 110 in this cycle—it’s not gonna happen.” — Ian [77:41]

4. Investing vs. Paying Off Debt – Opportunity Cost

Key Segment: [32:43]–[40:32]

• The panel agrees: invest excess capital if the expected market return exceeds loan rates, except for high-interest debts (e.g. credit cards).
• Great quote:
  • “The thing people never tell you about paying off debt is the opportunity cost… that 300k in five years could be 1.1 million just with long-term investing.” — Ian [32:52]

5. Netflix/Paramount/Warner Deal – Media, Debt, and Platform Power

Key Segment: [41:05]–[51:16]

• Netflix walked away from a $72B Warner Bros deal, collected a $2.8B breakup fee, and now has capital to pursue profitable ventures (e.g., live sports).
• “Sometimes, walking away is the best deal you can do. I like this for Netflix.” — Troy [45:10]
• The panel discusses the competitive challenges Netflix faces from YouTube and other platforms, the future of media content, and international growth.

6. Special Guest: Adam Boenke Deco, NY State Comptroller Candidate

Key Segment: [86:13]–[120:51]

• Controls NY's $300B pension fund and has total discretion over allocations—one of the most powerful financial roles in the United States.
  • “One person, the state comptroller, controls where $300 billion goes.” — Adam [95:36]
• Advocates for using the pension fund more actively for regional development (housing, infrastructure), and investing through diverse managers to help close the racial wealth gap.
• Reveals most of NY’s pension real estate isn’t even invested in NY; aims to change this for better returns and impact.
  • “If this was run like Canadian pensions—where they invest in, own, and operate whole systems—the returns could be 10–11% annualized, not just 6–7%.” — Adam [103:27],[105:23]
• [Details on his platform, election June 23; see adam4newyork.com]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This generation of investors is smarter… everything is already priced in.” — Ian [17:12]

• "The quality of the job market over the last 10 years has not dramatically improved—those jobs that were erased in '08 never came back.” — Ian [26:43]

• "You have to build an AI-proof, war-proof portfolio. That is your assignment for this year.” — Ian [65:18]

• “If you listen to the investing advice from the show, you would have had the 50, a 50 ball. We gonna talk about that—100,000 to 100.” — Ian [07:00]

• On investing in war: “The need to separate emotion from investing—don’t let this thing play out. The market is resilient.” — Troy [55:18]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment | |-----------|----------------------------------------------| | 09:00 | AI Layoffs & Jack Dorsey's Move | | 14:35 | Job Shock: Could AI Crash the Market? | | 21:49 | Do New Technologies Create Enough New Jobs? | | 28:46 | Oil Price Danger Zones | | 32:43 | Investing vs. Paying Off Debt | | 41:05 | Netflix/Paramount Deal | | 51:16 | Iran War Market Impacts | | 65:18 | Building a War-Proof, AI-Proof Portfolio | | 86:13 | Special Guest: Adam Boenke Deco, NY Comptroller | | 103:27 | How Pension Funds Are Allocated | | 117:34 | NY Budget Efficiency, Wasting, and Solutions |

In Summary

Market Mondays #299 serves as a comprehensive guide for investors grappling with today’s most urgent issues—wars, oil spikes, and the disruptive rise of AI. The hosts urge listeners to build resilient, future-proof portfolios, understand the deeper implications of global conflicts, and watch the shifting opportunities as old jobs fade and new ones emerge. The conversation with Adam Boenke Deco adds a crucial perspective on public wealth management and the untapped power of collective savings.

Action Steps:

• Watch oil price levels ($93.50/barrel as early warning, 110–120 as critical danger).
• Invest in companies resilient to AI automation and geopolitical risk.
• Consider opportunity cost: invest if expected returns exceed debt cost.
• For NY residents, pay attention to the June 23rd primary for Comptroller!

For More:

• [Blackout Late Night Show] Wednesdays, 9 PM EST
• [Market Mondays Interviews] Thursdays, 12 PM EST
• www.ianinvest.com for more from Ian and Red Panda Stock Club
• Support Adam Boenke Deco: adam4newyork.com