Market Mondays Episode #300 Summary

Title: Iran War Market Manipulation? 🚨 Oil Chaos & How to Profit
Date: March 10, 2026
Hosts: EYL Network (Rashad, Troy), Ian Dunlap

Episode Overview

In this milestone 300th episode of Market Mondays, the hosts deep-dive into the high-stakes intersection of geopolitics and financial markets. Main topics include the market volatility spurred by the Iran war, potential market manipulation in the oil sector, strategic ways to invest through global uncertainty, and the broader economic and social implications of ongoing wars. Lending their signature blend of expertise and candid, community-focused banter, EYL and Ian Dunlap equip listeners with practical frameworks to not only survive, but profit, regardless of market turbulence.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Historical Context: Seasonal Market Volatility

[08:34 - 11:53] | Ian, Troy

• February–March Correction is Normal:

  • Ian stresses that market drops around February through March are routine, not unique to this war or year.
  • Quote: “The cycle that you’re seeing of the market being down right now is normal... Every year, given the last 15 years... the market normally goes down in February and March.” – Ian (08:34)

• Importance of the VIX:

  • VIX above 27 usually preludes 1.5–2.5 months of volatility, after which markets recover (often aligning with the ‘best’ investing six months, beginning April).
  • For entry points, watch for VIX spikes and top 10 stock bargains.

2. Oil Chaos, War with Iran & Market Manipulation

[12:17 - 28:54; 39:37 - 47:36] | Ian, Rashad, Troy

• Oil as “Meme Stock”:

  • Ian likens current crude oil trading to meme stock frenzy—all wild volatility and little sense.
  • “They turned the crude market into a meme stock. By the time you’re chasing that move... you are now being used for exit liquidity for the hedge funds.” – Ian (12:17)

• Market Manipulation Allegations:

  • Hosts discuss unprecedented overnight swings—crude hit $118 and dropped to $86 within one day.
  • Quote: “This is probably one of the greatest instances of market theatrics allegedly that I've ever seen for an asset as important as crude.” – Ian (41:52)
  • Troy unpacks how calls/options and media hype help powerful actors offload risky positions onto the public.

• Geopolitics and Oil Reality:

  • Only a small percent of US oil comes from the Middle East. The immediate impact of Hormuz strait disruptions is overstated in US media.
  • Main consequence: Higher costs for Asia (esp. China, India, Japan); any cost increases ultimately ripple globally.

3. Is the Iran War an Investment Opportunity?

[29:01 - 39:33; 57:02 - 59:29] | Ian, Rashad, Troy

• Real Winners are Insiders:

  • “Unless you're in that administration, you're not going to get rich off Iran. Invest in gold, invest in Bitcoin, you’ll be good.” – Ian (29:15)
  • Top “war-proof” stocks: Costco, Walmart, Amgen, Eli Lilly.

• Wars as Profiteering Engines:

  • Rashad: “The whole point of war is to actually get rich... for the 1% of the 1%.” (32:21)
  • Ethical tension around investing in defense contractors or companies benefiting “indirectly” (e.g., gold, Bitcoin).

• Morality & Investing:

  • Memorable debate about moral investment, including whether it's right to profit from destruction or conflict.

4. Strategies for Investors in Volatile Geopolitical Climates

[23:04 - 28:54; 64:10 - 65:40; 106:37 - 112:11]

• Don’t Chase Volatility:

  • Hold quality: “90% shouldn’t chase the volatility. If you haven’t put in the work, invest long-term in quality companies.” – Ian (23:04)
  • Only trade volatility if you’re highly experienced.

• Long-Term Framework:

  • Even during sharp corrections, holding strong companies/ETFs (index funds, tech leaders, war-proof staples) is safer.
  • “Stick to companies that lead their sector or lead a niche in their sector. Stay with those.” – Troy (27:47)

• Hedging:

  • The “hedge” is buying the best companies at the best prices—not panic selling or betting against the market.
  • Practical tips for entries: Use EMA indicators (200-day, 72 EMA, 400 EMA) to guide buying decisions.

5. Deeper Market Risks—Private Credit & Structural Shifts

[15:20 – 22:34]

• Private Credit Bubble:

  • Ian: “Not talking enough about the private credit issue—KKR, Apollo, Blackstone—all are down heavy. This is scary and it’s not being talked about enough.” (22:08)
  • Risk isn’t just war/oil; watch private equity liquidity crunch and default swaps.

• Job Market Woes:

  • US jobs data unreliable, underemployed youth, and jobless rates are grave drivers of underlying instability.

6. The Outlook for Oil—Could It Go to $200?

[57:02 – 59:29]

• Highly unlikely: “If 125 to 130 is a recession, 200 would be... a severe depression… less than a 3% chance.” – Ian (57:25)
• No political leader, even Trump, can allow it before impending elections.

7. Global Power Shifts: US, China, and Europe

[74:11 – 79:54] | Rashad, Ian, Troy

• China, Taiwan, and Diversions:

  • Real black swan risk: If China moves on Taiwan, global markets could crash.
  • Ian: “Keep your eye on China and if they decide to make a move on Taiwan, that's the linchpin.”

• Europe’s Real Asset is Africa:

  • Notable conclusion: “Their greatest asset is Africa.” – Rashad (77:06)
  • Ongoing exploitation funds European economies.

8. Is the Market Rigged to Stay Up?

[84:12 – 90:29; 90:49 – 94:32] | Rashad, Ian, Troy

• Yes—For Now:

  • “The market is permanently rigged to stay up... but everything is rigged to stay up until it's not rigged anymore.” – Rashad (87:54)
  • Caution: Historic empires fall due to overspending, debt, and infighting.

• Private Companies vs. Government Power:

  • Debate about whether large tech companies can out-leverage the government. Conclusion: Political power trumps, but tech has massive influence.

9. AI, Labor, and The Future of Work

[81:27 – 84:12; 82:02 – 83:47]

• AI will “force” everyone into entrepreneurship:
  • “AI is going to make everybody an entrepreneur by force.” – Rashad (82:02)
  • Rise of contract/freelance work means less stability, benefits, and security for workers.

10. Notable Companies & Sectors

[71:02 – 74:11, 97:13 – 100:29, 103:18 – 105:47]

• Micron (MU):

  • Troy: “Memory is going to be a story. Micron will always be a story.” (71:58)
  • Entry points suggested: $351.90 and $400+ target by year-end.

• Pharma (Lilly, Amgen):

  • “Lilly is amazing. Amgen is amazing... Hims had a pop, but I’m not switching out for Lily or Amgen.” – Ian (98:11)

• Tech and Indices Leadership:

  • Nvidia, AMD, and others remain focus picks, with guidance to hold, not chase every hot stock.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The whole point of war is to actually get rich?” – Rashad (32:21)
• “My theme for this year is: listen the first time.” – Ian (108:04)
• “Stop being a stock whore. You can’t handle 18 of them. Some of y’all being a stock whore. It’s over with.” – Ian (115:47)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [08:34] Seasonal Market Timing & Historical Drops
• [12:17] The Meme-ification and Manipulation of Oil
• [15:20] Private Credit Risks Explained
• [23:04] Why Not to Chase Volatility
• [29:01] Is the Iran War an Investment Opportunity? Ethics & Sectors
• [41:52] Market Manipulation in Oil: How It’s Playing Out
• [57:02] Can Oil Hit $200? Reality Check
• [74:11] China, Taiwan, and Black Swan Risks
• [84:12] Is the Market Propped Up?
• [106:37] How (and When) to Hedge Effectively

Practical Takeaways for Listeners

• Don’t Panic in Volatility:
  Regular cycles create buying opportunities if you hold for the long term.
• Stick to What You Know:
  Focus on sectors and strategies you understand; don’t jump into oil or meme plays unless you’re an expert.
• Protect Your Downside:
  Quality companies, smart entries, and not overextending on risk are your best hedge.
• Be Aware of Macro Risks:
  Watch private credit/banking, global power shifts, and the future of work.
• Ethics Matter:
  Consider the impact and moral cost of your investment choices.
• AI & Future of Work:
  Prepare for the probability of widespread freelance/contract labor replacing traditional jobs.

Final Reflections

Closing out 300 episodes, the hosts urge listeners to study broadly, exercise discipline, and only attempt strategies they are prepared for—reminding everyone that true knowledge and wealth-building are long games. All should stay tuned for more on key interviews (including Sinead Bovelle on AI), market guidance, and actionable education in weeks to come.