‘My Data Proves SEO is NOT Dead’ + How to Rank #1 on Google & AI

Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: Marketing Against The Grain

Episode: ‘My Data Proves SEO is NOT Dead’ + How to Rank #1 on Google & AI
Date: December 11, 2025
Host(s): Kipp Bodnar (HubSpot CMO), Kieran Flanagan (HubSpot SVP of Marketing)
Guest: Ethan Smith (Graphite)
Main Theme:
This episode dives deep into the evolving dynamics between traditional Search Engine Optimization (SEO) and the rapidly growing Answer Engine Optimization (AEO) powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT and Google's Gemini. With viral industry data in hand, Ethan Smith debunks the current narrative that "SEO is dead," explains why traditional search continues to matter, and lays out both the differences and overlaps in playbooks for SEO and AEO. The show offers a practical, data-driven approach for marketers navigating search, AEO, and the future trajectory of these channels.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is SEO Really Dead? [02:44–06:52]

Ethan Smith counters the "SEO is dying" narrative with hard data:
- SEO traffic over the past year has been roughly flat, varying only within +/-1–5%.
- LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini) are growing fast (100% YOY) but are currently only about 1/15th the size of Google search.
- "The pie is getting bigger… LLMs are additive, not cannibalizing traditional search." (Ethan Smith, [04:51])
As Google expands its AI-powered experience, the 10 Blue Links remain consistent in overall traffic delivered.
Early-stage founders often lack data and so buy into hype, whereas late-stage companies (with real analytics) know organic search remains a top channel.
- Quote: "The death of SEO has been greatly exaggerated." (Ethan Smith, [06:52])

2. LLMs as a Channel & How AEO Differs [07:33–15:33]

Advice for Startups:
- If you’re a seed company, don’t over-invest in SEO: ROI takes too long. Focus elsewhere until you build authority ([07:33]).
- AEO provides faster wins for newer companies because LLM recommendations hinge on mentions in existing, third-party content—even if your own domain lacks authority.
- "For many of the most popular questions like 'what’s the best marketing software?'—it’s other websites saying Hubspot, not Hubspot itself." ([08:07])
LLM usage is growing exponentially but remains a small part of total search intent traffic.
- LLM/AI-powered search is likely on track to reach parity with traditional search within about four years if growth continues ([15:02]).

3. SEO & AEO—Overlap and Differences [15:59–18:24]

SEO: Authority and on-site optimization matters more as your company grows.
AEO: Off-site mentions, third-party citations, and being "talked about" matter immediately—even for newcomers.
The "long tail" of LLM prompts is much longer and more specific than keyword-based search.
- "It’s kind of like long tail SEO back in 2008…" (Ethan Smith, [17:04])

4. How to Win in LLMs, ChatGPT, and Gemini: Tactical Playbook [18:24–27:24]

On-site (Your Website)

Do all the things you already do for SEO: structure, internal links, schema markup.
Create pages that answer countless, ultra-specific user questions—think not just features but feature combinations, integrations, languages, persona use cases. Help centers are a goldmine.
- "Help centers show up a disproportionate amount of time in LLMs." (Ethan Smith, [19:35])

How to Find What to Answer

First-party data (e.g., Ahrefs, Google Ads Planner) are great for search, but not available from LLMs/ChatGPT.
Panels exist but aren’t deep enough to capture the "tail" of queries.
Top data sources for AEO:
- Reddit
- Customer Support and Sales conversations (transcripts analyzed via LLMs)
- User-submitted questions (via tools like Super.me or DMs)
- "If you want to know about the tail, look for where people are actually asking questions about your product." (Ethan Smith, [23:33])
The average prompt in ChatGPT search is ~60 words—orders of magnitude more complex than a typical search keyword ([24:57]).

On Technical Optimization

Don’t over-inflate technical SEO.
What matters: internal links, schema markup, crawlability, and soon (with ChatGPT Atlas) — action markup for elements like forms/buttons.
"Llm.txt" and markdown hacks are mostly myths right now.
- "As far as I know, no one uses it. We don't use it." (Ethan Smith on LLMs.txt, [29:30])

5. Off-site/Citations: What’s New in AEO? [30:57–37:11]

Mentions > Backlinks

LLMs care about specific mentions (not just backlinks, and often not needing a link at all).
What matters is that the exact URLs referenced in LLM answers cite your brand for the relevant query ("money questions").
- "The only thing that matters are the specific URLs that are appearing in the citations." (Ethan Smith, [33:18])
In Google, domain-level authority reigns. In LLMs, relevance and citation frequency for the specific question drive inclusion—regardless of "authority."
Some randomness: newer, lower-authority sites can show up heavily in LLM citations, as the algorithms’ authority signals are still maturing ([34:35]).

How to Build Off-site Presence for Both SEO & AEO

Start with your key transactional (i.e., "money") queries—look at high-volume paid search terms.
Transform those keywords into questions using LLMs themselves.
Use answer tracking tools (that scrape, not API) to identify top-cited URLs/domains.
Focus outreach on securing mentions/citations on those exact pages.

6. Future Trends: The Next 3 Years [37:18–43:24]

Predictions

SEO traffic remains stable; still core.
AEO/LLM traffic could triple, eventually becoming half or more of total search volume—but largely additive rather than substitutive.
Strategies for SEO and AEO will increasingly overlap, but:
- AEO will win with the "tail" (ultra-specific, longform questions).
- SEO will continue to benefit most from high-authority page-level linking.
Autonomous agents: AI agents will transact and execute tasks for users (e.g., planning travel), changing conversion paths.
Personalization: Search results today are not deeply personalized—expect this to be a shift in LLM-driven answer engines.
Unique data/content as currency: "The best input produces the best output." (Ethan Smith, [40:09])
Video will become a massive LLM data source (with Gemini 3 and others watching video, not just reading transcripts).
- "Video… might be the most important input into the LLM." (Ethan Smith, [42:07])
Testing/experimentation will be essential ("Do experiments"). There are no fixed answers yet—share learnings to move the industry forward ([43:08]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

"SEO traffic is not down... The pie is getting bigger. LLMs are growing a lot, but it's still a small fraction of search."
— Ethan Smith ([02:44])
"The death of SEO has been greatly exaggerated."
— Ethan Smith ([06:52])
"For many of the most popular questions like 'what’s the best marketing software?', it’s other websites saying Hubspot—not HubSpot itself... You could get mentioned tomorrow and win a question like that."
— Ethan Smith ([08:10])
"Help centers show up a disproportionate amount of time in LMS..."
— Ethan Smith ([19:35])
"Technical SEO… I've been doing it since 2008. It's just not that important, generally speaking."
— Ethan Smith ([27:24])
"As far as I know, no one uses LLMs.txt, we don't use it… I could create an Ethan.txt and the bot will crawl that too."
— Ethan Smith ([29:30])
"The only thing that matters are the specific URLs that are appearing in the citations."
— Ethan Smith ([33:18])
"What matters [for offsite] is the prompts you care about, the queries you want to win, then where the citations are coming from for those queries."
— Ethan Smith ([36:34])
"In three years: SEO flat, still important. AEO triples. Both bigger. Strategies largely similar."
— Ethan Smith ([37:42])
"Unique content is currency... The best input’s going to produce the best output."
— Ethan Smith ([40:09])
"Video is already huge in LLMs and it'll become five times more important…"
— Ethan Smith ([42:07])
"The way to know what works is to set up an experiment and to see an effect and to reproduce that."
— Ethan Smith ([43:08])

Timestamps for Important Segments

[02:44] - Data-driven case for why SEO is NOT dead
[04:51] - The "pie" is growing: LLMs are additive, not cannibalistic
[07:33] - When early-stage startups should (and shouldn’t) focus on SEO
[08:10] - Off-site mentions = fastest wins in AEO for new companies
[13:13] - Transactional vs. informational search: AI impact
[18:24] - Repeatable tactics for visibility in LLMs
[21:48] - How to determine what questions to answer for AEO
[23:33] - Using Reddit, support data, sales calls for tail insights
[27:24] - Technical SEO: what's actually important (and what's not)
[30:57] - Citations vs links: Off-page for AEO and what's different
[33:18] - Only actual cited URLs in LLM answers matter
[37:42] - Three-year future prediction: SEO flat, AEO triples, new ecosystem emerging
[40:09] - Unique content/data is the new competitive advantage
[42:07] - Video as transformative LLM data source
[43:08] - Importance of experimentation for marketers

Actionable Takeaways for Marketers

Don’t abandon SEO: It’s still essential, especially as your brand grows.
Use a single blended strategy for SEO and AEO, adapting where necessary.
For AEO, focus on building off-site mentions (brand citations) in key URLs seen in LLM-generated answers.
Attack the "long tail": Identify ultra-specific questions people ask (via Reddit, support, sales calls) and create rich content to answer them.
For both SEO and AEO, on-site technical optimizations are mostly unchanged; prioritize basics and don’t chase unproven "hacks" like LLMs.txt.
Watch the AEO space: As LLMs grow in importance, their prompt complexity, data sources, and ability to process new content (such as video) will only expand.
Run experiments and share results—this is still a moving frontier.

This summary reflects the episode's direct, practical style, offering marketers a clear, myth-busting playbook as SEO and AEO continue to evolve.

Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: Marketing Against The Grain

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is SEO Really Dead? [02:44–06:52]

Ethan Smith counters the "SEO is dying" narrative with hard data:
- SEO traffic over the past year has been roughly flat, varying only within +/-1–5%.
- LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini) are growing fast (100% YOY) but are currently only about 1/15th the size of Google search.
- "The pie is getting bigger… LLMs are additive, not cannibalizing traditional search." (Ethan Smith, [04:51])
As Google expands its AI-powered experience, the 10 Blue Links remain consistent in overall traffic delivered.
Early-stage founders often lack data and so buy into hype, whereas late-stage companies (with real analytics) know organic search remains a top channel.
- Quote: "The death of SEO has been greatly exaggerated." (Ethan Smith, [06:52])

2. LLMs as a Channel & How AEO Differs [07:33–15:33]

Advice for Startups:
- If you’re a seed company, don’t over-invest in SEO: ROI takes too long. Focus elsewhere until you build authority ([07:33]).
- AEO provides faster wins for newer companies because LLM recommendations hinge on mentions in existing, third-party content—even if your own domain lacks authority.
- "For many of the most popular questions like 'what’s the best marketing software?'—it’s other websites saying Hubspot, not Hubspot itself." ([08:07])
LLM usage is growing exponentially but remains a small part of total search intent traffic.
- LLM/AI-powered search is likely on track to reach parity with traditional search within about four years if growth continues ([15:02]).

3. SEO & AEO—Overlap and Differences [15:59–18:24]

SEO: Authority and on-site optimization matters more as your company grows.
AEO: Off-site mentions, third-party citations, and being "talked about" matter immediately—even for newcomers.
The "long tail" of LLM prompts is much longer and more specific than keyword-based search.
- "It’s kind of like long tail SEO back in 2008…" (Ethan Smith, [17:04])

4. How to Win in LLMs, ChatGPT, and Gemini: Tactical Playbook [18:24–27:24]

On-site (Your Website)

Do all the things you already do for SEO: structure, internal links, schema markup.
Create pages that answer countless, ultra-specific user questions—think not just features but feature combinations, integrations, languages, persona use cases. Help centers are a goldmine.
- "Help centers show up a disproportionate amount of time in LLMs." (Ethan Smith, [19:35])

How to Find What to Answer

First-party data (e.g., Ahrefs, Google Ads Planner) are great for search, but not available from LLMs/ChatGPT.
Panels exist but aren’t deep enough to capture the "tail" of queries.
Top data sources for AEO:
- Reddit
- Customer Support and Sales conversations (transcripts analyzed via LLMs)
- User-submitted questions (via tools like Super.me or DMs)
- "If you want to know about the tail, look for where people are actually asking questions about your product." (Ethan Smith, [23:33])
The average prompt in ChatGPT search is ~60 words—orders of magnitude more complex than a typical search keyword ([24:57]).

On Technical Optimization

Don’t over-inflate technical SEO.
What matters: internal links, schema markup, crawlability, and soon (with ChatGPT Atlas) — action markup for elements like forms/buttons.
"Llm.txt" and markdown hacks are mostly myths right now.
- "As far as I know, no one uses it. We don't use it." (Ethan Smith on LLMs.txt, [29:30])

5. Off-site/Citations: What’s New in AEO? [30:57–37:11]

Mentions > Backlinks

LLMs care about specific mentions (not just backlinks, and often not needing a link at all).
What matters is that the exact URLs referenced in LLM answers cite your brand for the relevant query ("money questions").
- "The only thing that matters are the specific URLs that are appearing in the citations." (Ethan Smith, [33:18])
In Google, domain-level authority reigns. In LLMs, relevance and citation frequency for the specific question drive inclusion—regardless of "authority."
Some randomness: newer, lower-authority sites can show up heavily in LLM citations, as the algorithms’ authority signals are still maturing ([34:35]).

How to Build Off-site Presence for Both SEO & AEO

Start with your key transactional (i.e., "money") queries—look at high-volume paid search terms.
Transform those keywords into questions using LLMs themselves.
Use answer tracking tools (that scrape, not API) to identify top-cited URLs/domains.
Focus outreach on securing mentions/citations on those exact pages.

6. Future Trends: The Next 3 Years [37:18–43:24]

Predictions

SEO traffic remains stable; still core.
AEO/LLM traffic could triple, eventually becoming half or more of total search volume—but largely additive rather than substitutive.
Strategies for SEO and AEO will increasingly overlap, but:
- AEO will win with the "tail" (ultra-specific, longform questions).
- SEO will continue to benefit most from high-authority page-level linking.
Autonomous agents: AI agents will transact and execute tasks for users (e.g., planning travel), changing conversion paths.
Personalization: Search results today are not deeply personalized—expect this to be a shift in LLM-driven answer engines.
Unique data/content as currency: "The best input produces the best output." (Ethan Smith, [40:09])
Video will become a massive LLM data source (with Gemini 3 and others watching video, not just reading transcripts).
- "Video… might be the most important input into the LLM." (Ethan Smith, [42:07])
Testing/experimentation will be essential ("Do experiments"). There are no fixed answers yet—share learnings to move the industry forward ([43:08]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

"SEO traffic is not down... The pie is getting bigger. LLMs are growing a lot, but it's still a small fraction of search."
— Ethan Smith ([02:44])
"The death of SEO has been greatly exaggerated."
— Ethan Smith ([06:52])
"For many of the most popular questions like 'what’s the best marketing software?', it’s other websites saying Hubspot—not HubSpot itself... You could get mentioned tomorrow and win a question like that."
— Ethan Smith ([08:10])
"Help centers show up a disproportionate amount of time in LMS..."
— Ethan Smith ([19:35])
"Technical SEO… I've been doing it since 2008. It's just not that important, generally speaking."
— Ethan Smith ([27:24])
"As far as I know, no one uses LLMs.txt, we don't use it… I could create an Ethan.txt and the bot will crawl that too."
— Ethan Smith ([29:30])
"The only thing that matters are the specific URLs that are appearing in the citations."
— Ethan Smith ([33:18])
"What matters [for offsite] is the prompts you care about, the queries you want to win, then where the citations are coming from for those queries."
— Ethan Smith ([36:34])
"In three years: SEO flat, still important. AEO triples. Both bigger. Strategies largely similar."
— Ethan Smith ([37:42])
"Unique content is currency... The best input’s going to produce the best output."
— Ethan Smith ([40:09])
"Video is already huge in LLMs and it'll become five times more important…"
— Ethan Smith ([42:07])
"The way to know what works is to set up an experiment and to see an effect and to reproduce that."
— Ethan Smith ([43:08])

Timestamps for Important Segments

[02:44] - Data-driven case for why SEO is NOT dead
[04:51] - The "pie" is growing: LLMs are additive, not cannibalistic
[07:33] - When early-stage startups should (and shouldn’t) focus on SEO
[08:10] - Off-site mentions = fastest wins in AEO for new companies
[13:13] - Transactional vs. informational search: AI impact
[18:24] - Repeatable tactics for visibility in LLMs
[21:48] - How to determine what questions to answer for AEO
[23:33] - Using Reddit, support data, sales calls for tail insights
[27:24] - Technical SEO: what's actually important (and what's not)
[30:57] - Citations vs links: Off-page for AEO and what's different
[33:18] - Only actual cited URLs in LLM answers matter
[37:42] - Three-year future prediction: SEO flat, AEO triples, new ecosystem emerging
[40:09] - Unique content/data is the new competitive advantage
[42:07] - Video as transformative LLM data source
[43:08] - Importance of experimentation for marketers

Actionable Takeaways for Marketers

Don’t abandon SEO: It’s still essential, especially as your brand grows.
Use a single blended strategy for SEO and AEO, adapting where necessary.
For AEO, focus on building off-site mentions (brand citations) in key URLs seen in LLM-generated answers.
Attack the "long tail": Identify ultra-specific questions people ask (via Reddit, support, sales calls) and create rich content to answer them.
For both SEO and AEO, on-site technical optimizations are mostly unchanged; prioritize basics and don’t chase unproven "hacks" like LLMs.txt.
Watch the AEO space: As LLMs grow in importance, their prompt complexity, data sources, and ability to process new content (such as video) will only expand.
Run experiments and share results—this is still a moving frontier.

This summary reflects the episode's direct, practical style, offering marketers a clear, myth-busting playbook as SEO and AEO continue to evolve.

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Summary

Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: Marketing Against The Grain

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is SEO Really Dead? [02:44–06:52]

2. LLMs as a Channel & How AEO Differs [07:33–15:33]

3. SEO & AEO—Overlap and Differences [15:59–18:24]

4. How to Win in LLMs, ChatGPT, and Gemini: Tactical Playbook [18:24–27:24]

On-site (Your Website)

How to Find What to Answer

On Technical Optimization

5. Off-site/Citations: What’s New in AEO? [30:57–37:11]

Mentions > Backlinks

How to Build Off-site Presence for Both SEO & AEO

6. Future Trends: The Next 3 Years [37:18–43:24]

Predictions

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Important Segments

Actionable Takeaways for Marketers

Summary

Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: Marketing Against The Grain

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is SEO Really Dead? [02:44–06:52]

2. LLMs as a Channel & How AEO Differs [07:33–15:33]

3. SEO & AEO—Overlap and Differences [15:59–18:24]

4. How to Win in LLMs, ChatGPT, and Gemini: Tactical Playbook [18:24–27:24]

On-site (Your Website)

How to Find What to Answer

On Technical Optimization

5. Off-site/Citations: What’s New in AEO? [30:57–37:11]

Mentions > Backlinks

How to Build Off-site Presence for Both SEO & AEO

6. Future Trends: The Next 3 Years [37:18–43:24]

Predictions

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Important Segments

Actionable Takeaways for Marketers