A more equal nation?

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Summary: "A More Equal Nation?"
Release Date: November 18, 2024

In this episode of Marketplace, host Kai Ryssdal delves into the complexities of economic equality in the United States, exploring currency markets, retail dynamics during the holiday season, corporate success stories, wealth and wage disparities, and the profound impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities. Through insightful discussions with economists, analysts, and community leaders, the episode provides a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and the challenges ahead.

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1. Currency Markets and the Strengthening US Dollar

The episode opens with an analysis of the US dollar's appreciation in the foreign exchange markets despite President-elect Trump's promises to weaken it to boost American exports.

• Sabri Benishore explains, “The dollar is getting stronger because people here and around the world want more dollars. They're buying them and they want certain other currencies less” (00:01).

• Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, adds, “It's all about supply and demand of currencies” (01:28).

Key Factors Influencing the Dollar's Strength:

• Inflation and Interest Rates: Persistent inflation leads the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, attracting investors seeking higher returns in dollars.

• Comparative Currency Weakness: Other currencies, such as the Canadian dollar, are weakening due to their own economic slowdowns and aggressive interest rate cuts (02:09).

• Election Impact: Despite Trump's intentions, policies like increased deficits and tariffs are inadvertently strengthening the dollar (02:33).

Notable Quote:

“If you impose tariffs, we will presumably import less. If we are importing fewer goods from foreign countries, we don't need as much currency from foreign countries to pay for those goods.” — Sabri Benishore (02:09)

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2. US Retail Landscape and Holiday Spending Outlook

As the holiday season approaches, Marketplace examines the retail sector's performance and consumer spending trends.

• Kristen Schwab discusses the early Black Friday discounts, noting that deeper-than-usual discounts (up to 60% off) indicate retailer anxiety about consumer spending (04:27).

• Jessica Ramirez, an analyst at Jane Holly and Associates, highlights that while categories like winter coats and tech remain strong, sectors like home furnishings are sluggish due to a low housing market (05:00).

• Mari Shore from Columbia Threadneedle Investments anticipates holiday spending growth of 2.5% to 3.5%, aligning with pre-pandemic levels (05:52).

Consumer Behavior Insights:

• Shoppers are focusing on essentials and value, possibly pulling back on non-essential spending like dining out.

• Flexible payment options, such as "buy now, pay later," are gaining popularity.

Notable Quote:

“We're back to all the same Trends that we discussed before the pandemic.” — Jessica Ramirez (05:59)

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3. Walmart's Remarkable Success Story

Walmart stands out as a beacon of success in the retail sector, with its stock price soaring nearly 60% year-to-date, marking its best performance since 1999.

• Dia Iyer from S&P Global identifies three key factors behind Walmart's success:

  1. Groceries Dominance: Approximately 60% of Walmart’s business comes from groceries, bolstered by improved delivery and curbside pickup services (07:08).

  2. Value and Essentials: Offering affordable basics attracts a resilient customer base focused on value (07:28).

  3. Digital Services: A robust digital presence and services rivals Amazon, enhancing customer engagement (08:11).

• Shiraz Meehan from Zack's Investment Research emphasizes the effectiveness of Walmart's online platforms and membership programs in driving growth (08:24).

Future Outlook:

Walmart's expanding e-commerce business is expected to thrive as the holiday shopping season shifts towards online platforms (08:35).

Notable Quote:

“We're seeing the customer on a regular weekly basis. And so that is different from many others in retail that have fully discretionary assortments.” — Dia Iyer (07:51)

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4. Economic Growth and Wealth Inequality in the US

Despite significant economic growth, the episode highlights persistent disparities in wealth and wages among American households.

• Paul Ashworth notes that from 2019 to 2022, total household wealth in the US grew by 25%, with the poorest 20% also seeing growth, albeit limited (09:44).

• Anna Hernandez Kent from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis explains that government aid programs, like stimulus checks, disproportionately benefited lower-income families, contributing to wealth growth among Black and Hispanic households and single women (10:11).

• Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute discusses wage inequality, suggesting recent cooling in the labor market may reverse previous reductions in wage disparities (11:09).

Public Sentiment:

• Bruce Meyer from the University of Chicago highlights that perceived inequality can dampen public satisfaction, even amid actual economic improvements (12:02).

Notable Quote:

“Anna Hernandez Kent is a senior researcher at the Federal Reserve bank of St. Louis. Wealth here is basically all the assets a household owns... But it wasn't the fevered post pandemic housing market or Wall street that helped poor households, the vast majority of which don't own stocks or homes.” — Paul Ashworth (10:11)

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5. Climate Change and Its Impact on the Marshall Islands

A poignant segment addresses the existential threats posed by climate change to the Marshall Islands, featuring interviews with local leaders.

• Hardin Leleft, City Manager of Ebey, discusses the tangible effects of rising sea levels, including the disappearance of islands and degradation of coral reefs (18:56).

• Aban Aralong, a local fixer, expresses skepticism about adaptation efforts and emphasizes the urgent need for relocation strategies, highlighting the limited time remaining before the islands become uninhabitable (25:29).

Historical Context:

• The legacy of US nuclear testing in the Marshall Islands has left lasting environmental and health challenges, compounding the threats of climate change.

Government Response:

• The US-Marshal Islands Compact of Free Association, renewed in the current year, involves a lease agreement in return for financial assistance. However, Hardin Leleft states, “I want to build this place, you know, I want to build this place, you know, for... the generations to come” (21:32).

Community Sentiment:

• While some leaders remain hopeful and committed to adaptation, younger generations like Aban are urging for realistic exit strategies, pointing out the accelerating pace of climate impacts (25:38).

Notable Quote:

“The islands are sinking. Yeah, that's absolutely true. Yeah, but we see the changes... some of the islands within these atolls, they're gone.” — Hardin Leleft (18:56)

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6. Financial News: Rising Credit Score Rejections

Concluding the episode, Kai Ryssdal highlights a concerning trend in the US credit market.

• Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals a 21% loan rejection rate for credit applications this year, the highest in over a decade. Individuals with credit scores below 680 face especially high rejection rates (27:00).

Implications:

• Higher rejection rates can limit consumer access to essential financial products like car loans and mortgages, potentially impacting economic mobility and personal financial stability.

Notable Quote:

“If your credit score is below 680, you are especially likely to run into loan trouble.” — Federal Reserve Bank of New York representative (28:13)

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Conclusion

Marketplace's "A More Equal Nation?" episode offers a multifaceted exploration of economic equality, highlighting both progress and ongoing challenges. From the dynamics of global currency markets and the resilience of major retailers like Walmart to the stark realities of wealth disparity and the dire consequences of climate change on communities like the Marshall Islands, the episode underscores the complexity of building a more equitable society. Through expert insights and firsthand accounts, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the factors shaping economic fairness in today's world.

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Timestamp References:

• 00:01: Introduction to currency markets
• 01:28: Paul Ashworth on currency supply and demand
• 02:09: Sabri Benishore on tariffs and dollar appreciation
• 02:33: Impact of election results on the dollar
• 04:27: Kristen Schwab on early Black Friday discounts
• 05:00: Jessica Ramirez on retail categories
• 05:52: Mari Shore on holiday spending projections
• 07:08: Dia Iyer on Walmart's grocery dominance
• 07:28: Joe Feldman on Walmart’s value proposition
• 07:51: Dia Iyer on customer retention
• 08:11: Dia Iyer on Walmart's digital services
• 08:24: Shiraz Meehan on digital package of services
• 08:35: Walmart's e-commerce outlook
• 09:44: Matt Levin on household wealth growth
• 10:11: Anna Hernandez Kent on wealth metrics
• 11:09: Michael Strain on wage inequality
• 12:02: Bruce Meyer on perceived inequality
• 18:56: Hardin Leleft on climate change impacts
• 21:32: Hardin Leleft on future plans for Ebey
• 25:29: Aban Aralong on migration and climate urgency
• 27:00: Credit score rejection rates
• 28:13: Federal Reserve Bank data on loan rejections

Transcript

[Kai Ryssdal]

A dollar is a dollar, of course, until you want to exchange it for something else. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kai Rysdal. It is Monday today, the 18th of November. Good as always today. Have you along everybody on the foreign exchange markets? Today it went like €1 will cost you about $1.06. One British pound, $1.27, one Chinese yuan about 14 cents. The specifics honestly aren't all that important. What you need to know about the currency markets is that the US dollar has, broadly speaking, appreciated about 3% since election day. That is to say, the dollar has gotten stronger, which is interesting because President elect Trump has promised to weaken the dollar as a way to make American exports more attractive, cheaper, that is, for the world to buy. Thing is, though, that the incoming administration policies might actually do the opposite, as we're seeing of what Mr. Trump intends. Marketplace's Sabri Benishore gets us going.

[Sabri Benishore]

The dollar is getting stronger because people here and around the world want more dollars. They're buying them and they want certain other currencies less. They're selling those.

[Paul Ashworth]

It's all about supply and demand of currencies.

[Sabri Benishore]

Paul Ashworth is chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. So why the interest in U.S. dollars? In general, it is because investors can make more money with dollars. And a few things are screaming that right now. One, and this might sound odd, is inflation.

[Eric Winograd]

The October inflation data came in a.

[Paul Ashworth]

Bit stronger than we were expecting.

[Sabri Benishore]

What happens when inflation sticks around? The Federal Reserve tries to fight it by keeping interest rates high. And what happens when interest rates are high? Investors make more money. So investors want dollars to get in on that. The other thing making dollars look good is that other currencies are looking less good.

[Paul Ashworth]

In Canada, their economy is slowing down a little more.

[Sabri Benishore]

Amarjeet Sahota is executive director of Clarity fx.

[Kai Ryssdal]

They've been confident in cutting interest rates.

[Paul Ashworth]

More aggressively, and that's weakened the Canadian dollar.

[Sabri Benishore]

So if your neighbor's grass is a little brown, yours looks a little greener. But one big thing making the dollar look good is the election result. Eric Winograd is chief economist at Alliance Bernstein.

[Kristen Schwab]

Most of the policies that President elect Trump has talked about, at least in.

[Paul Ashworth]

Economic terms, are dollar positive.

[Sabri Benishore]

That is, of course, despite his desire to weaken the dollar, Trump's spending plans are expected to increase the deficit. The government will bor more to do it. Investors want dollars to get in on that. And the other dollar growing item is tariffs. So what's the connection between tariffs and the dollar?

[Paul Ashworth]

If you impose tariffs, we will presumably import less.

[Sabri Benishore]

If we are importing fewer goods from foreign countries, we don't need as much currency from foreign countries to pay for those goods. Demand falls, those currencies weaken, and that.

[Paul Ashworth]

Means that the dollar should appreciate.

[Sabri Benishore]

As a result, markets are anticipating all of that. So the dollar has already started its upward move. In New York, I'm Sabri Ben Assure.

[Kai Ryssdal]

For Marketplace Wall street today. Not a lot of dollars moving around, little up, little down. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. Not for nothing, but we are 11 days out from Black Friday, the day, perhaps apocryphally, when retailers go into the black for the year. I mentioned that because a bunch of big retailers are going to be reporting earnings this week, among them Target, Lowe's, the Gap and TJ Max. Those earnings calls could give us a preview of what's expected as we close on Black Friday and the rest of the holiday shopping season. Marketplace's Kristen Schwab takes stock of where spending is headed and what it might say about how consumers are feeling.

[Jessica Ramirez]

The winter holidays are here. Stores already put up decorations, they're blasting holiday music, and it isn't Thanksgiving yet. But many retailers are offering Black Friday discounts early, especially last week, they started getting more 50% off a site wide, 60% off. Jessica Ramirez is an analyst at Jane Holly and Associates. She says usually you'd only see deals like 20 or 30% off right now. The deeper discounts could mean retailers are a bit anxious. Deals are especially good if you're in the market for a winter coat.

[Eric Winograd]

Weather right now it's warm, so outerwear I'm concerned about.

[Jessica Ramirez]

Home furnishings isn't expected to be a strong category either, since not many people are buying homes. But as usual, tech will be popular. Same with beauty, an affordable luxury for all ages. Katherine Cullen at the National Retail Federation says this mix shows how people are budgeting. They're thinking about pulling back in other areas, maybe pulling back and dining out. They may be using some options like buy now, pay later. All in all, though, this year Colin expects holiday spending to increase two and a half to three and a half percent. It's a lot less than the nearly 12 and a half percent increase we saw in 2021, but it is closer to what we saw in 2019. Mari Shore is an analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

[Kai Ryssdal]

I don't know if I would specifically.

[Jessica Ramirez]

Say we're back to 2019, but I feel like in a lot of ways when I look high level, we are.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Back to all the same Trends that.

[Eric Winograd]

We discussed before the pandemic.

[Jessica Ramirez]

In other words, a consumer who's careful with their wallet but is willing to open it up. I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Walmart is on that list of retailers reporting earnings this week and expectations are that the world's biggest retailer is going to be sharing some good news. Ticker symbol WMT is up almost 60% year to date. 6,0% which puts it on pace for its best year since 1999, when the company was building a bunch of new superstores and making a bigger name for itself in Canada and Mexico. This is Mark, this is Kelly Wells. Today looking for the secrets of Walmart's success. A quarter century on, I found three.

[Dia Iyer]

The first one, says Dia Iyer with S and P Global. They're the largest grocer in America. Iyer says roughly 60% of Walmart's business is groceries. It's improved its delivery and curbside pickup services and that's made it an attractive option.

[Kai Ryssdal]

And I think that is a lot about their their own execution actually. Not just sort of natural need for.

[Dia Iyer]

Cheaper groceries, although in this economy the price point is a plus too, says Joe Feldman with Telse Advisory Group.

[Kai Ryssdal]

You know, the consumer has money to spend and has shown resiliency all year, but they've definitely focused on value and basics and getting food on the table.

[Dia Iyer]

And groceries help Walmart make other sales. Come for the onions, stay for the scarves and iPhone chargers.

[Kai Ryssdal]

They're seeing the customer on a regular weekly basis. And so that is different from many others in retail that have fully discretionary assortments.

[Dia Iyer]

In other words, you're not going to buy toothpaste at Macy's. The final, not so secret secret to Walmart success, A digital package of services.

[Hardin Leleft]

That is a worthy rival to Amazon.

[Dia Iyer]

Shiraz Meehan is director of research at Zack's Investment Research. He says the site, the app, the annual membership, all that has brought in customers.

[Hardin Leleft]

As the lower end of the income distribution has struggled. Walmart has been able to more than offset that by attracting higher income households.

[Dia Iyer]

Walmart's fourth quarter is likely to be strong too. Dia Iyer with S and P Global says the holiday season is shorter than usual this year, so more people will shop online. Good news for Walmart's growing e commerce business. I'm Kayleigh Wells for Marketplace.

[Kai Ryssdal]

This is going to run counter to the perceived wisdom abroad in this country right now, but the data based fact of the matter is that American gross domestic product, the final value of all goods and services produced in this Economy is up nearly 13% over the past four years, and that is adjusted for inflation. So to put it another way, the US economic pie is bigger than it was in 2020. The question, of course, is how that pie is being divided and who is getting the biggest slices. Marketplace's Matt Levin has that one.

[Paul Ashworth]

Most Americans are a lot richer now than they were before COVID From 2019 to 2022, the last year good data is available, total household wealth grew 25%. And that rising tide really did lift all boats, including the poorest 20% of U.S. households.

[Eric Winograd]

So they had in that three year.

[Dia Iyer]

Period, 83% growth, so almost doubling their wealth. It's something that we haven't seen as far back as the data goes.

[Paul Ashworth]

Anna Hernandez Kent is a senior researcher at the Federal Reserve bank of St. Louis. Wealth here is basically all the assets a household owns. A house, stocks and bonds, savings minus its debt, mortgages, student loans, credit cards. But it wasn't the fevered post pandemic housing market or Wall street that helped poor households, the vast majority of which don't own stocks or homes.

[Dia Iyer]

Government aid programs like the stimulus checks and enhanced employment benefits, these things disproportionately benefited lower income families.

[Paul Ashworth]

Wealth grew significantly among black and Hispanic households and never married women. But since some households had so little to begin with, seven grand or so in net worth for those in the bottom 20%, those big gains did not narrow the divide between rich and poor.

[Eric Winograd]

The gap between the wealthy, the top.

[Dia Iyer]

80%, and the not wealthy, the poor, the bottom 20%, has grown by about.

[Eric Winograd]

$200,000 between 2019 and 2022.

[Paul Ashworth]

Wealth, though, isn't the only way to measure equality. There's also the first step towards building wealth. Wages. Wage inequality generally declined the first few years after the pandemic. That red hot low skilled labor market meant low skilled wages grew faster than inflation. But Michael Strain with the American Enterprise Institute says that with today's cooling labor market, we probably will look back at 2024 and say, okay, you know, the.

[Kai Ryssdal]

The reductions in wage inequality, you know, kind of petered out.

[Paul Ashworth]

We've done lots of stories about how Americans are disenchanted with this economy despite all that growth in wages and wealth and a zillion other metrics. And yeah, part of that's inflation. But economist Bruce Meyer at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy says inequality may also be throwing off the vibes.

[Kai Ryssdal]

A lot of people look to others for how they judge whether or not they're well off, even when things are getting better. In terms of the level of expenditures people can afford at the bottom.

[Paul Ashworth]

Last year, those at the bottom 10th percentile of American household incomes made 19 grand a year. Those at the top 90th percentile made 235,000. I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Coming up, when you go there, you.

[Hardin Leleft]

Just see only beaches or sand. There's no trees. It's just, just beaches.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Climate change does actually change stuff, you know. First though, let's do the number. Dow industrials down 55 points today about a 10th percent. The blue chips closed at 43,389. The NASDAQ picked up 111 points. Rather 6, 10% finished at 18,791. The S&P 500 gained 23 points. 4, 10%, 58 and 93. Kristen Schwabisch is telling us about some of the major retailers reporting before the holiday season, Target rang up two and nine tenths percent today. Gap subtracted three quarters of one percent. Lows built up about nine, 10%. Walmart down two tenths of one percent on the day. Spirit Airlines dropped 5.6% today. That's after the budget airline filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The carrier says it will continue to operate and will honor all existing tickets as it moves through that process. Delta, meanwhile, sank 1.3%. JetBlue shrank about 9 1/2% today. United dipped 9, 10%. Chipmaker Nvidia and Google announced a physics partnership today in quantum computing. That is a super fast ish form of computing that far outpaces the speed of semiconductor based technology. Could still be years away from broad scale use. Nvidia slipped 1.3% the day Google's parent company Alphabet sped up about 1.6%. You're listening to Marketplace.

[Paul Ashworth]

Foreign.

[Kristen Schwab]

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[Kai Ryssdal]

This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. You're all in 7:40 in the morning. That diesel rumble you might hear in the back end is the ferry or on just pulling into Ebey from Kwajalein. I talked a month or so ago on the program about a reporting trip I took this past summer to the Marshall Islands for our climate podcast How We Survive. There's a critical army missile test range out there in the Kwajalein Atoll. To be precise, the main army garrison is on the island of Kwajalein. Almost all of the native Marshallese who work on the base, though that's a thousand or so people, live on the next island up Ebey it's called, and they take a 20 minute ferry ride back and forth. That same ferry that's just dropped us off at the docks at Ebey. Most of the island, it's just over a mile long, less than a quarter of a mile wide. Most of it is housing because about 12,000 people live on it. It is among the most densely populated islands on the planet.

[Hardin Leleft]

Good morning Haley, Katelyn.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Good to see you.

[Aban Aralong]

Morning. How are you?

[Kai Ryssdal]

Aban Aralong, our fixer, is 35, born and raised here. He left for school Honolulu, but came back and now works with the city on disaster response. He met us as we got off the ferry and he got us to our first stop which was a meeting with city Officials. This is a big green building and a conference room. Conference rooms in Ebey are the same as conference rooms in all of the United States. We're sitting down with Hardin Leleft.

[Hardin Leleft]

I'm the city manager.

[Kai Ryssdal]

City manager, yeah. So it's basically you're in charge, right? I mean, I won't tell the mayor, but you're in charge. Yeah. Okay. Hardin was born and raised here on Ebey as well, and he has seen the changes that climate change has brought.

[Hardin Leleft]

Oh, yes, the islands are sinking. Yeah, that's absolutely true. Yeah, but we see the changes. I see, you know, the physical changes that happens to the coral islands, the reefs islands that we've been living in for the last 30, 40 years. Some of the islands within these atolls, they're gone. They're not here. I mean, when you go there, you just see only beaches or sand. There's no trees, just beaches.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Do you. And look, I'm asking you to speak for the whole community, but do you feel forgotten out here?

[Hardin Leleft]

Yes. Yeah, we. I mean, I'm. I'm a descendant of one of the families that migrated from the mid atoll corridor. It was in the 50s, 60s, when they started U.S. government, you know, asking if they could lease these areas.

[Kai Ryssdal]

After the Second World War, between 1946 and 1958, the United States conducted 67 nuclear tests in the Marshall Islands, the most famous or infamous of which were in the Bikini Atoll, a bit more than 200 miles from Ebei. Marshallese, who lived in or even near that Mittitol corridor that Hardin was talking about, were forcibly relocated, many of them to the Kwajalein Atoll. And in the decades since, they've been dealing with cancer and birth defects and other chronic health problems. And areas of the ocean which had kept the islands fed for millennia are now contaminated. Do you feel like the United States owes you something? Not you, but the Marshallese?

[Hardin Leleft]

Yes. Yeah. I mean, in terms of, you know, you know, give us something value, give us something very valuable that, you know, might replace the islands that were here once before.

[Kai Ryssdal]

The United States has a compact of free association with the Marshall Islands. It was renewed this year. It covers our lease of Kwajalein and 10 other islands in the atoll in return for $2.3 billion over 20 years. And Marshallese citizens can live and work in the United States without a visa. The government of the Marshall Islands has laid out its own plan to make their country livable through the middle of the next century. The National Adaptation Plan, it's called. It estimates the cost to protect the islands and the atolls here at $35 billion. So when you're an old man, when you're 85 and you have grandchildren running around, maybe great grandchildren, what's this place gonna be like for them?

[Hardin Leleft]

To be honest right now, what I'm thinking, I want to build this place, you know, I want to build this place, you know, for, you know, the generations to come. And I want to, you know, be able to provide a better living, you know, living conditions. We're trying to, you know, make sure this please, you know, survive in the next 20, 30 years. Yeah.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Are you hopeful?

[Hardin Leleft]

I am very hopeful, yes.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Why? Because it doesn't look good.

[Hardin Leleft]

I think if there's a will, there's a way. We've always had that, you know, can do attitude, you know, with the culture, you know, with, you know, the close knit community that we have, you know, the educations that we're getting today, the resources that we know, the friends that we do have, you know, that can provide us the, you know, the resources, the support then yes.

[Kai Ryssdal]

While it was developing its national adaptation plan, the government did a survey. The overwhelming majority of Marshallese said they didn't want to leave. So tell us where we're going. What are we doing?

[Aban Aralong]

We're going for a stroll around Ebey.

[Kai Ryssdal]

That's Abbon again, our fixer. We load up in his car after our meeting to take a quick tour.

[Aban Aralong]

Welcome to the slum of the Pacific.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Why do you think they call it that?

[Aban Aralong]

I don't know. Maybe because it looks not that great.

[Kai Ryssdal]

We pass densely packed streets, people carrying buckets of water back to their homes. There are kids running around on the side of the road and playing with stray dogs.

[Aban Aralong]

This whole area right here, this is where when King Tide came, this was all washed away.

[Kai Ryssdal]

There's all sorts of debris near the road, rusted out school bus and abandoned machinery. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what the vibe is like in the car. It's heavy. Granted I've known you about six and a half minutes, but you seem. I can't decide if it's angry or depressed or just. I don't know.

[Aban Aralong]

I think I'm good. Yeah. I don't think I'm angry or depressed. It just saddens me. And it's scary to see the sea level rising. It's not looking bright, like the ocean is coming quicker than we thought.

[Kai Ryssdal]

So I was talking to some of the folks who run that base and work the radars and are responsible for things and I said, you know, what are you gonna do climate change is gonna make this place uninhabitable in 40, 50, 60 years. And they said, we're gonna fix it, we'll adapt and take care of it. Sounds like you think the United States is kidding itself.

[Aban Aralong]

Yeah, and sir, it's not 40 to 50 to 60 years. It's within the 15 to 20 years. Like there's the ocean right there.

[Kai Ryssdal]

We didn't plan to turn the microphone on our fixer. We paid Aban for his time and paying sources isn't something that marketplace does. But what he had to say once we started talking is critical to this story because he sits at the intersection of a gut wrenching and legitimately existential reality. Help Ebey and its people fight to stay here or help his community get out before it's too late. Aban is, as you can hear, not as positive as the older generation, like City Manager Hardin Lele.

[Aban Aralong]

Like you was hearing from them earlier, they're like, oh, they still see themselves here in the next 20 years.

[Kai Ryssdal]

I don't that older generation like Harden want to build Ebey up, literally higher seawalls, elevated roads and buildings. Aban says money would be better used to come up with an exit strategy.

[Aban Aralong]

We're already on a mass migration. There's more Marshallese in the States than in the Marshall Islands.

[Kai Ryssdal]

I don't know if you were in the room when I was talking to Hardin, but I asked him that same question. Do you think the United States owes the Marshallese people something?

[Aban Aralong]

They owe us more than our lives. Like the nuclear testing. 67 bombs a thousand times greater than Hiroshima and not getting our justice. Yeah, they owe us. They owe us big.

[Kai Ryssdal]

There is radioactive debris from those nuclear tests that's stored in the Marshall Islands. And while the Department of Energy says the risks of a leak are low, the thing we know about climate change is that risks, change and threats multiply really quickly. We spent all in all a week in the Marshall Islands reporting on climate change and the American military. And you can check out the rest of our series, stories of climate change and national security from Alaska to San Diego and Washington D.C. wherever you get your podcasts, just search for how we survive this final note on the way out today, in which one is reminded yet again that credit scores really matter. It's data from the Federal Reserve bank of New York that shows applications for all kinds of credit, but especially car loans and mortgage refinancing, have been rejected this year at a rate higher than it's been in more than a decade. 21% rejection rate. This year 17.5% before the pandemic and said the New York Fed, if your credit score is below 680, you are especially likely to run into loan trouble. Our daily production team includes Andy Corbin, Nicholas Guillaume, Elise Hassan, Maria Hollenhorst, Sarah Leeson, Sean McHenry and Sophia Terentio. I'm Kai Ryssdal. We will see you tomorrow everybody. This is apm.

[Jessica Ramirez]

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