As goes productivity, so goes wages. Right?

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Summary Episode: "As goes productivity, so goes wages. Right?"
Release Date: December 27, 2024
Host: Kimberly Adams
Guests: Jordan Holman (New York Times), Catherine Rampel (Washington Post)

---

1. Introduction: Year-End Economic Overview

The episode kicks off with host Kimberly Adams setting the stage for a comprehensive analysis of the holiday shopping season and broader economic trends as the year concludes. Emphasizing the significance of understanding consumer behavior and economic indicators, Adams introduces her guests—Jordan Holman, a retail reporter from The New York Times, and Catherine Rampel, an opinion columnist from The Washington Post.

2. Retail Performance During the Holiday Season

Guest: Jordan Holman
Timestamp: [01:27]

Jordan Holman reports that the American consumer remained resilient during the holiday season, with retail sales increasing by 3.8%, surpassing expectations. He highlights that the season was characterized by "normalcy," mirroring growth rates seen before the pandemic in 2018 and 2019. The stability in discounting strategies played a crucial role in encouraging consumer spending.

Quote:
"It was like the level of discounting that felt normal, that brought people out and made them want to spend." — Jordan Holman [01:27]

Holman further explains the shift towards online spending. While consumers have long complained about rising prices, their purchasing behavior remained traditional, driven by attractive deals that motivated spending despite higher costs.

3. Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

Guest: Catherine Rampel
Timestamp: [03:13]

Catherine Rampel delves into consumer sentiment, particularly focusing on inflation expectations post the recent election. She notes a significant increase in consumers viewing the present moment as favorable for purchasing big-ticket items—such as TVs, refrigerators, and automobiles—anticipating future price hikes.

Quote:
"Consumers are having second thoughts about whether [price reductions under the prospective administration] are going to happen." — Catherine Rampel [03:13]

Rampel discusses how electoral outcomes have influenced consumer confidence, with lingering frustrations over inflation shaping spending behaviors. She underscores the impact of tariffs and global supply chain dependencies, which are causing consumers to anticipate higher future prices and thus act preemptively.

4. Year-End Economic Highlights and Future Outlook

Guests: Jordan Holman and Catherine Rampel
Timestamp: [06:04]

As the episode approaches its conclusion, Adams invites both guests to reflect on the year's most significant economic stories and what to expect in 2025.

Jordan Holman:
"The return of the winners and losers within retail... you're seeing bankruptcies in different pockets while companies like Walmart and TJX remain strong." [06:22]

Holman emphasizes the divergence within the retail sector, where some businesses thrive while others falter, a trend he expects to persist into the new year.

Catherine Rampel:
"Inflation has come down a lot, but that last mile has been really tough for the Fed to achieve." [07:02]

Rampel highlights inflation as the prevailing economic narrative, noting that despite significant reductions, achieving the Federal Reserve's target remains challenging. She also points to impending legislative battles over tax codes, particularly the expiration of a large portion of the 2017 tax cuts, as a key story for 2025.

5. Understanding the U.S. Trade Deficit

Segment Host: Henry Epp
Timestamp: [09:10]

Henry Epp explores the intricacies of the U.S. trade deficit, which grew by over 4% in November, reaching nearly $103 billion. He clarifies that a trade deficit in goods means the U.S. imports more than it exports, a trend consistent since the mid-1970s.

Quote:
"We are buying more things from abroad than we are selling." — Sharon O'Halloran, Columbia University [09:17]

Epp discusses factors contributing to the trade deficit, including the export of services like software, accounting, and education, which balance the goods deficit. He explains how foreign investment in U.S. markets strengthens the dollar, making exports more expensive and imports cheaper, thereby widening the deficit.

Economist Mary Lovely from the Peterson Institute for International Economics is cited, emphasizing that borrowing to finance consumption is sustainable if invested in growth-promoting areas. However, excessive borrowing for non-productive spending can lead to economic instability.

6. The Baum Effect: Productivity and Wage Dynamics

Segment Host: Maria Hollenhorst
Timestamp: [15:28]

Maria Hollenhorst introduces the "Baum Effect," named after economist William Baumel, to explain why wages rise even in industries with stagnant productivity. Through an engaging analogy involving musician Benga Agilori playing a 1729 composition on a bassoon, the segment illustrates how increased wages in productive industries can lead to wage pressures in less productive ones.

Quote:
"Productivity gains in one industry spill over and increase wages in other industries." — Benga Agilori [17:15]

The discussion highlights that as certain sectors become more productive and wages rise, other industries must increase wages to retain labor, even if their productivity hasn't improved. This phenomenon is evident in education, where teaching remains labor-intensive with limited productivity gains, yet wages rise due to competition with more productive sectors like technology and finance.

Economist Caroline Hoxby from Stanford University addresses misconceptions, noting that not all increases in costs, such as rising tuition, can be solely attributed to the Baum Effect. She points out that technological advancements and shifts towards online education have altered productivity dynamics in academia.

7. Refugee Employment and Tech Training Initiatives

Segment Host: Marlon Hyde
Timestamp: [20:28]

The podcast transitions to a human-interest story focusing on refugees integrating into the U.S. workforce through tech training programs. Marlon Hyde reports on "Refcode," a free coding bootcamp in Atlanta led by software engineers, which equips refugees with essential coding and AI skills.

Quote:
"If you think about a ladder that you climb to get to your first job, a lot of the rungs on that ladder are already in place. But what's missing is that bottom rung." — Brenton Strine, Founder of Refcode [22:23]

Hyde features Blisha Magar, a 26-year-old refugee from Nepal, who benefits from the program by developing practical projects such as websites. The bootcamp addresses the skills gap, offering refugees a pathway into high-demand tech roles, which are crucial for economic mobility.

Strine emphasizes the increasing need for software engineers in the U.S., with the Bureau of Labor Statistics projecting a growth of over 350,000 tech jobs annually in the next decade. Programs like Refcode are pivotal in bridging the employment gap for refugees, providing them with marketable skills and opportunities for career advancement.

8. Market Update and Final Thoughts

Market Performance:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -333 points (-0.75%) to 42,992
• NASDAQ: -298 points (-1.5%) to 19,722
• S&P 500: -66 points (-1.1%) to 59,70

Tech stocks experienced declines, with Meta down 0.6%, Alphabet off 1.5%, and Nvidia decreasing by 2%. Bond yields also rose, with the 10-year Treasury note reaching 4.63%.

Final Note on Homelessness and Migration:
The episode concludes by addressing the rise in homelessness, attributing it to increased migration, a shortage of affordable housing, and significant natural disasters. However, a positive trend is noted with a 55% reduction in veteran homelessness since 2010.

Quote:
"Not every refugee can get the kind of skills training like we heard about in Atlanta." — Kimberly Adams [24:40]

Host Adams underscores the multifaceted challenges facing refugees and the broader societal impacts of migration trends.

---

Conclusion:
This episode of Marketplace provides an in-depth exploration of the interplay between productivity and wages, illustrating how economic principles manifest in various sectors—from retail and education to refugee integration into the tech workforce. Through expert analyses and compelling storytelling, the podcast offers listeners valuable insights into the current economic landscape and future projections.

Notable Quotes:

• Jordan Holman: "It was like the level of discounting that felt normal, that brought people out and made them want to spend." [01:27]
• Catherine Rampel: "Consumers are having second thoughts about whether [price reductions under the prospective administration] are going to happen." [03:13]
• Caroline Hoxby: "You can't blame all tuition cost increases on Baum Effect." [18:29]
• Brenton Strine: "If you think about a ladder that you climb to get to your first job, a lot of the rungs on that ladder are already in place. But what's missing is that bottom rung." [22:23]

---

This summary is crafted to provide a comprehensive overview of the episode, capturing key discussions, insights, and expert opinions for listeners seeking to understand the nuances of productivity and wage dynamics in the current economic climate.

Transcript

[Kai Rysdal]

Hey, everybody, it's Kai. Time is running out to give a tax deductible donation to Marketplace before the end of the year. Donate today to support the public service journalism that you rely on. Every donation and every dollar helps us plan for the new year ahead. Go to marketplace.org donate and invest in news you value and trust. That's marketplace.org donate or you can follow the link in the show notes the economy didn't take the week off for the holiday. So we've got some news on retail trade and plus the weekly wrap from American Public Media. This is Marketplace in Washington, D.C. i'm Kimberly Adams in for Kai Rysdal. It's Friday, December 27th. Good to have you along. The bulk of one of the busiest shopping periods of the year is pretty much over. And we are ready to dive into the details of what we learned about the American consumer, plus the the other economic news of the week. And you know what, why not the year for that? I'm joined now by Jordan Holman, a business reporter at the New York Times, and Catherine Rampel, an opinion columnist at the Washington Post. Welcome you to.

[Jordan Holman]

Hi, Kimberly.

[Catherine Rampel]

Hi, Kimberly.

[Kai Rysdal]

Hey there. So, Jordan, you're the retail reporter. Let's start with you. How did the almighty American consumer do this holiday season?

[Jordan Holman]

We held up. So the numbers are in when it comes to the holiday shopping season. It was up 3.8%, which was more than was expected. And this holiday season was really just defined by normalcy. That's basically the same growth that we saw before the pandemic in 2018 and 2019, but even more so. It was like the level of discounting that felt normal, that brought people out and made them want to spend.

[Kai Rysdal]

Say a little bit more about that, Jordan, because people have been complaining about these higher prices for ages, but yet they're still spending in the traditional way. How did retailers actually get them to open up their wallets, digital wallets, I guess, right?

[Catherine Rampel]

Yes.

[Jordan Holman]

Because online spending was stronger than in stores. But I think if you like take a look at the whole year, you were hearing retailers say people are being more discerning about what they're buying. They're only really spending when there's a deal to be offered. And that is just magnified during the holiday shopping season. So, so the sales seem to be concentrated as in people were waiting in November and December to really do that splurge that we kind of hear, we definitely heard about during the pandemic. And so as people, you know, you keep hearing retailers say they were pulling back on Spending. Maybe consumers were just waiting for this time period. And that's why you saw, you know, a boom in certain categories like electronics and apparel and toys, which are classic holiday shopping categories.

[Kai Rysdal]

Now, Katherine, you wrote about something very relevant to how much we all decided to spend this holiday season, consumer sentiment. How did that set us up for the holiday spending season and how is it setting us up for what we're heading into?

[Catherine Rampel]

It's been super interesting to watch consumers views of prices going forward since the election. There's been a huge spike in the share of consumers who say now is a good time to buy big ticket items like TVs, refrigerators, automobiles, things like that, because they're anticipating that prices will go up. And that's what's super interesting here. You know, this whole election, of course, was about consumers frustration with inflation, what the next president can or cannot do about it. And Donald Trump ran his campaign effectively arguing, not effectively explicitly arguing that he was going to bring prices down. But in the month since we've gotten those election results, it seems like consumers are having second thoughts about whether they believe that's going to happen. You see that in the overall inflation expectations numbers, they ticked up a little bit. You know, people are expecting like 2.8% inflation year over year, a little bit higher than they had been predicting before. But again, it's really in these big ticket items, presumably in part because they're worried about tariffs. Things like automobiles, even if they're built here, have a lot of inputs from abroad. They, you know, there's a very integrated supply chain across North America. For example, if we have tariffs on Mexican parts, then that will drive up the cost of automobiles. So I think consumers are finally starting to internalize that and acting accordingly.

[Kai Rysdal]

I'm curious what you think change though, because it's not like we are saying anything different as business and economics journalists about what tariffs mean now than we were before the election.

[Catherine Rampel]

I don't think I've been saying anything different, but I do think that there has been more news coverage in general paid to what happens if these global tariffs get put in place and or China specific tariffs as well, as well as the potential consequences of things like mass deportations. You know, there are different ways that that might affect the economy, but the agriculture industry relies heavily on immigrant labor, including undocumented immigrant labor. And there's been more stories recently looking at what happens to the cost of produce. For example, if you have tariffs on Mexican goods, you know, avocados and tomatoes and other things that we get from Mexico and You have major workforce shortages in the United States because a lot of agricultural workers end up getting forced out. So I think there's just been more salience of the issue is my guess. But who knows, Trump also did acknowledge recently, hey, I may not be able to get prices down. So if people listen to that, maybe they're taking it to heart.

[Kai Rysdal]

Before we let you both go for the year, this is our final wrap of the year and I'm curious to hear from both of you what you think the biggest economic story was of the year and what you think is going to be the biggest economic story heading into 2025. Jordan, you go first.

[Jordan Holman]

Well, my whole vantage point is through how consumers spend, why we spend on the things. So I feel like it is the, the return of the winners and losers within retail. Whereas the past few years pretty much, you know, rising tide raises all boats, but now you're seeing bankruptcies of in different pockets. You're hearing about big lots and party city while there's just the strength of Walmart and tjx. So that division of those companies and where people are spending is getting further apart. And I think that's just going, going to only continue into the new year.

[Kai Rysdal]

What about you, Catherine?

[Catherine Rampel]

I would say this year it's still the story of inflation. Inflation has come down a lot. But that last mile has been really tough for the Fed to achieve. You know, we're still above 2% inflation, which is, which is the Fed's target. And the Fed recently has been revising its forecasts going forward about how much longer it will take to get inflation down. So that sort of last bit of stubbornness, I would say for next year, inflation, you know, and where things are headed will still be an issue. But I'll be watching trade as we've been talking, talking about in taxes, there's going to be a huge food fight over the tax code next year because the large portion of the 2017 tax cuts expire. So that's going to be a major economic story.

[Kai Rysdal]

Well, thank you so much for all of your advice all year long. Katherine Rampel, an opinion columnist at the Post, and Jordan Holman over at the New York Times, thank you.

[Catherine Rampel]

Thanks, Kimberly.

[Kai Rysdal]

Wall street today, tech stocks drove a bit of a sell off. We we'll have the details when we do the numbers. Speaking of trade, preliminary numbers out Today from the U.S. census Bureau show that the country's trade deficit in goods grew by over 4% in November, up to nearly $103 billion. Now this isn't new. The US has consistently imported more goods than it exports since about the mid-1970s. And narrowing the gap between imports and exports has long been a goal of incoming President Donald Trump, though the deficit actually grew during his first term in office. Marketplace's Henry Epp takes a look at why we have a trade deficit in the first place and what that tells us about our economy.

[Henry Epp]

When we have a trade deficit in goods with other countries, that means just one thing, says Sharon O'Halloran at Columbia University.

[Kai Rysdal]

We are buying more things from abroad than we are selling.

[Henry Epp]

And while it's easy to think that means we're somehow losing to other countries, it's actually more complicated. For one, we export a lot of services software, accounting, education, which changes our trade balance. Also, says Rachel Brewster at Duke Law School, what should be taken into account.

[Kai Rysdal]

Is how much investment you're getting into.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

The country versus how many goods and services you're selling abroad.

[Henry Epp]

And on that level we're doing well. Brewster says foreign countries and businesses want to invest in our stock market and in our government debt, and that is.

[Kai Rysdal]

Going to drive up the value of.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

The dollar and it's going to lead.

[Henry Epp]

To a trade deficit because the stronger the dollar, the more expensive it is for other countries to buy our exports, but the cheaper it us to buy theirs. And we've been consuming a lot, which helps drive the U.S. economy. Mary Lovely at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a marketplace underwriter, says our trade deficit reflects that we're consuming more.

[Kai Rysdal]

Than we're earning, which means we are borrowing more.

[Henry Epp]

Borrowing is okay, she says, if it's going towards investments that eventually help us grow the economy and it pays off.

[Kai Rysdal]

In the future, we have a higher income. We can easily meet those payments.

[Henry Epp]

But if we're just spending on stuff that doesn't eventually help us produce more, she says, that's where things can get messy. I'm Henriett from Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

Like Henry was just saying, goods are not the only part of of the trade picture. Countries also export the things people do as well as the things people make. And according to data from the UN Service, exports now represent a quarter of world trade. Domestically, that number is even higher, with services making up more than three quarters of the US economy. So to understand that services slice a little more clearly, we decided to check back in with Lisa Pena, owner of Urban Hikes Kansas City.

[Lisa Pena]

Lately, business has been doing well despite it being cold in Kansas City. We have a seasonal urban hike on the Country Club Plaza that is in conjunction with the Plaza Christmas lights that has been filling up a lot of the weekends that we offer it and we just offer it in December. However, since it is cold, we are offering less hikes and we will start to offer more hikes in March. When I think about the wins this year, I think about some small wins of a $10,000 increase in revenue and a $5,000 increase in profit. And we still aren't finished with December. But that is looking at the whole year. We've had 300 more participants participate in our Urban hikes this year and we are up to nine guides right now and with myself we're 10 guides total. We just added a new guide this December to give our plaza hike. We have grown a lot in our community collaborations. For example, we've collaborated with the Kansas City library, the local KCUR, the World War I Museum, and we're even highlighted in the Kansas City, Kansas School District annual report. We also have added five new hikes this year, which is pretty exciting. Our most recent hike is Taste youe Way Through KCK where we have different coffee samples, a taco sample, and also a bread and pastry sample from a local Mexican bakery. The goals that I have for 2025 are mostly around having more corporate groups. Corporate groups love to come out on urban hikes because it's a different way to celebrate with their staff or to take their clients out. And that's something that I really would like to grow in. We saw 42 different corporate groups this year, but we could easily see to different groups in 2025.

[Kai Rysdal]

Lisa Pena, owner of Urban Hikes Kansas City Coming up.

[Catherine Rampel]

Basically I'm gonna add like a burger, pizza, broccoli and a cookie on the side.

[Kai Rysdal]

Interesting combination. But first let's do the numbers. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 333points/3/4 of a percent to land at 42,992. The NASDAQ fell 298 points 1 1/2% to close at 19,722. And the S&P 500 shed 66 points 1 1/10% to finish at 59.70. For the week, the Dow added a third of a percent, the Nasdaq picked up 3/4 of a percent, and the S&P 500 improved 7.10%. Tech stocks, which rode high this past year, took a bit of a hit today. Meta subtracted 0.6%. Alphabet, parent company of Google, slid 1.5%. Chipmaker Nvidia was off 2%. Bond prices fell. The yield on the 10 year T note rose to 4.63%. And you're listening To Marketplace. This is Marketplace. I'm Kimberly Adams. We talk about a lot of economic concepts on this program. Inflation, for example, or supply and demand. Those are terms from textbooks that can help explain the forces that shape our lives. And we came across a term the other day that made marketplaces. Maria Hollenhorst say. Huh, don't think we've talked about that one before.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

Some people discover their passions early in life.

[Benga Agilori]

When I was a kid, I just saw a picture of a bassoon and fell in love with it.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

That's Benga Agilori. Bassoons are woodwind instruments, by the way. Typically used to play lower notes.

[Benga Agilori]

But I was too small to play the bassoon cause it's a pretty big instrument. So I had to wait till Peabody kicked in before I could start playing the bassoon.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

Today, Agilori is an economist who works on rural policy in Washington, D.C. but we're going to use his musical hobby to explain an economic concept, the Baum effect. The Baumill effect is named after economist William baumel. In the 1960s, he started exploring why prices rise even in industries that haven't changed in literally hundreds of years. Cue the bassoon. That's Agilori playing Fanfare Rondeau by Jean Joseph Mouret. It was composed in 1729.

[Benga Agilori]

In 1729 when this piece first came out, bassoon players are going to be able to read the music and then play it within the orchestra or in a quartet or something like that.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

I couldn't find wage data for bassoon players in 1729, but let's just say they earned a few shillings a week.

[Benga Agilori]

So then fast forward 300 years. I'm going to be able to play that same music with the same instrument, with the same fingerings, and produce the exact same song that would have sounded the same in 1729.

[Kai Rysdal]

Even though the.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

Time and skill it takes to play that piece today is the same as it was back then. You cannot pay a 21st century bassoonist a few shillings a week. He or she would simply get another job.

[Benga Agilori]

So if you see wages going up, you're going to assume that in that industry they'll be more productive. But then what happens is that some of people, he noticed that in certain industry where labor productivity hasn't increased, wages are going up. So the question is, well, why is that?

[Maria Hollenhorst]

The reason is competition for labor.

[Benga Agilori]

In order to keep people in industries where the labor productivity is not going up, you have to match the wages in the ones where the labor productivity is going up.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

That is the Bommel effect in action. Productivity gains in one industry spill over and increase wages in other industries. And it has implications far beyond music. If you type Bommel effect into a search engine, one of the most common industries mentioned is education.

[Kai Rysdal]

So let's say that people see that tuition is rising at post secondary institutions, they will often immediately jump to the idea that this is the Bommel effect.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

Caroline Hoxby is a professor at Stanford University who studies the economics of education. And when you think about it, teaching is kind of like a live performance.

[Kai Rysdal]

You have professors like me where what we DO is advise PhD students one on one and discuss the latest research. And really we're probably not that much more productive than we've been in the past.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

Universities have to compete for workers with other industries like tech or finance that have gotten more productive over time, so wages go up. But Hauksbee said, you can't blame all tuition cost increases on Bamal.

[Kai Rysdal]

Some areas of education do not really have that much of the live performance aspect to them anymore and in fact are kind of going in the other direction. And this was accelerated a lot during.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

The pandemic, like online classes, which make it easier for professors to teach thousands of students. One big question in thinking about where the Bauml effect applies and where it.

[Benga Agilori]

Doesn'T is, well, what does greater productivity mean?

[Maria Hollenhorst]

That's economist slash bassoonist Benga Agilori again. And he said there are ways in which you could say that technology has even made musicians more productive. I mean, 300 years ago, a quartet needed four musicians playing live. But this is a recording of Agilori playing all four parts of Rondeau at different times. He recorded it months ago. And now you're hearing it while he's off doing something else. Economics, maybe, I don't know.

[Benga Agilori]

So in a way, I am more productive.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

It's just that productivity isn't always the point.

[Benga Agilori]

Sometimes you just want more arts and culture.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

You can bet that new technology is going to make a whole lot of industries a lot more productive in the next few years.

[Kai Rysdal]

Think of AI. You know, I was doing something even very simple in a statistical computer program the other day and I was like, how do you use that? I just used my friend ChatGPT and it came up with code. And I bet, you know, I saved a couple hours.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

That's Melissa Thomason, an economics professor and associate dean at Miami University in Ohio.

[Kai Rysdal]

Think about how much more code I could write because I didn't have to struggle with trying to remember this very arcane thing that I hardly ever use. So the Baumholt effect would say that that's pushing wages in the tech sector.

[Maria Hollenhorst]

Higher, and that could have spillover effects for all sorts of industries, even the ones that don't use AI. I'm Maria Hollenhorst for marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

Jobs in tech and coding and AI often come with relatively high wages in this economy, making them ideal if you're trying to climb the economic ladder in the US which is exactly what many refugees coming to this country are trying to do. Last year, over 60,000 refugees resettled in America. And among those that are working age, many end up starting with low wage, low skilled labor. But programs around the country aim to bring thousands of new Americans into growing industries such as software development and artificial intelligence. Marlon Hyde from WABE in Atlanta looks at one initiative.

[Marlon Hyde]

Blisha Magar is one of 20 refugees working away in a classroom during a free coding bootcamp called Refcode. It's a program led by software engineers that teaches refugees how to code and other tech skills. On Magarh's screen is a website she made with two furry monsters, one blue and one orange, and they're ready for lunch.

[Catherine Rampel]

Basically, I'm gonna add like a burger, pizza, broccoli, and a cookie on the side.

[Marlon Hyde]

Magar is 26 years old and originally from Nepal. She's a hospice care worker. She's flexing the skills she learned in the bootcamp to practice creating a website Pixel, something that reacts when you hover a mouse on it. She clicks the burger and drags her cursor over the monster.

[Catherine Rampel]

So if I click on, you know, broccoli, it might just open.

[Marlon Hyde]

Magar learned about the boot camp from friends, and it felt like an opportunity she could not pass up since it's.

[Catherine Rampel]

Free and I would be learning like a skill that's very prevalent now. So two birds with one stone.

[Marlon Hyde]

Brenton Strine, a software engineer, started the Rev code program in 2017.

[Kai Rysdal]

Companies are almost desperate to hire talented software engineers. So there's this huge need there. And then on the other hand, there's this huge need of new Americans starting over from nothing.

[Marlon Hyde]

Strian says many refugees want tech jobs but have to settle for roles like rideshare drivers because it's hard to learn how to code.

[Kai Rysdal]

If you think about a ladder that you climb to get to your first job, a lot of the rungs on that ladder are already in place. But what's missing is that bottom rung. For people who haven't gotten a start yet don't know anything about code.

[Marlon Hyde]

The 10 week bootcamp provides hands on experience with AI and coding and some students do find jobs after and the industry is hungry. According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tech jobs in the US Are expected to grow faster than the workforce in the next decade, increasing by over 350,000 jobs a year. Refcoat has recently grown and is now funded by DeKalb county, part of the Atlanta metro area. Strian says he can expand boot camps, pay instructors and offer internships to some graduates.

[Kai Rysdal]

We're starting to fill in the rungs on that ladder a little bit where we're paying our graduates now to do real work and put a real job on their resume.

[Marlon Hyde]

And for some participants, the program can give a jump start to a new career. That's what 54 year old Tesfa Gabelle is hoping for. He came here over a decade ago from Ethiopia where he was an irrigation engineer.

[Kai Rysdal]

My background is irrigation engineer. I'm an irrigation engineer.

[Marlon Hyde]

He currently works at a supermarket and hopes the program will help him get a job in it.

[Kai Rysdal]

Really I'm interested to change my career now.

[Catherine Rampel]

I'm working on professional work.

[Kai Rysdal]

I try to to change my career to it.

[Marlon Hyde]

A couple weeks later, Gabayo and the rest of his cohort is ready to graduate. Stryon congratulates them.

[Kai Rysdal]

Let me tell you, I'm really excited because you made it to the end of the class.

[Marlon Hyde]

Graduates take photos at the front of the room. They get a slice of pizza, a diploma and a fresh line on their resume that could help them land their next job in Atlanta. I'm Marlon Hyde for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

This final note on the way out today. Not every refugee can get the kind of skills training like we heard about in Atlanta. And finding work is particularly fraught for those seeking refugee status who enter the country illegally. The surge of migrants in several parts of the country is one of the reasons federal officials blame for a more than 18% increase in homelessness in the US this year. In addition to migration, an overall lack of affordable housing plus several significant natural disasters helped contribute to the surge. One somewhat bright spot in the numbers veteran homelessness is down by more than 55% since 2010. Our theme music was composed by BJ Lederman. Marketplace's executive producer is Nancy Far Golly. Donna Tam is the executive editor, Neil Scarborough is the vice president and general manager and I'm Kimberly Adams. Have a great weekend everyone. We will be back on Monday. This is APM.