Cyclical, secular, seasonal

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Summary: "Cyclical, Secular, Seasonal"

Release Date: December 6, 2024
Host: Kai Ryssdal

---

1. Labor Market Dynamics: Cyclical vs. Secular Jobs

[00:57 – 02:50]

Kai Ryssdal opens the episode by discussing the current state of the labor market, highlighting a "labor market trifecta" that includes the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP's private sector jobs report, and the upcoming government's official unemployment tally for November.

Justin Ho explains the distinction between cyclical and secular jobs:

• Cyclical Jobs: These are tied closely to the economic cycle, fluctuating with periods of growth and recession. Examples include manufacturing, construction, and retail.
• Secular Jobs: These are less sensitive to economic changes and persist regardless of economic conditions. Kathy Baschancik, Nationwide's Chief Economist, cites healthcare, education, and government sectors as prime examples.

Kathy Baschancik emphasizes the resilience of secular jobs:

"People are aging. So whether we're in a booming economy or a recession, there's still going to be a certain level of demand people require when they're older for health care." [01:34]

Justin Ho notes that secular sectors have driven significant job gains over the past year. However, Daniel Zhao from Glassdoor warns of potential vulnerabilities if secular trends shift, particularly in education where there's still a recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn.

Guy Berger, Director of Economic Research at the Burning Glass Institute, points out that cyclical jobs have remained stagnant due to current monetary policies:

"Right now, with monetary policy squeezing the economy at least a little, these sectors, you know, in general aren't generating the bulk of job gains." [02:26]

Berger further cautions that cyclical sectors could suffer if the economy weakens:

"Jobs in those cyclical sectors could take a hit if the economy were to turn south." [02:40]

---

2. Wage Growth Trends and Economic Implications

[02:58 – 05:10]

Ryssdal transitions to wage growth, highlighting expectations for the November unemployment report. Wage growth has hovered around 4% annually, with a slight dip anticipated. Notably, ADP's report shows a 4.8% wage increase for employees who remained in the same job, marking the first rise in over two years.

Mitchell Hartman discusses the historical context:

"Three years ago, the wage picture was great for workers, not so great for the economy. With severe labor shortages, workers had tons of bargaining power." [03:26]

Dean Baker from the Center for Economic and Policy Research views the current 4% growth as optimal:

"4% is pretty much the sweet spot, because as workers get more productive with AI and automation and better training, employers can afford to give out 4% raises without jacking up their prices too much." [03:47]

Despite rising wages, Mark Hamrick notes that many workers still feel financially strained:

"People lost buying power through a couple of years of outsized increases in prices. And so when we are talking about wages rising above the pace of inflation, we're really talking about sort of recapturing lost buying power." [04:14]

Hartman acknowledges that while 61% of workers received raises, nearly 40% did not, highlighting persistent income inequality:

"There is a kind of underclass of workers here. The federal minimum wage hasn't been increased." [04:42]

Marshall Cohen from Circana adds that the cost of working is increasing, with more employees required to return to physical offices, necessitating additional expenses for activities like eating out and updating wardrobes.

Mitchell Hartman remains optimistic:

"With unemployment low and skilled labor in short supply, workers leverage to get higher wages is likely to stay strong into 2025." [04:58]

---

3. Bitcoin's Surge and Environmental Concerns

[05:10 – 08:38]

The episode shifts focus to Bitcoin, which recently surpassed the $100,000 mark—a historic high, though it has slightly retreated since. This surge is attributed in part to optimism surrounding a crypto-friendly Trump administration.

Fred Thiel, CEO of Mara Holdings, a Bitcoin mining company, explains the profitability spike:

"There's this period of bull run, as the industry calls it, where miners can make a lot of money because price is running much faster than miners' ability to add capacity." [06:32]

However, increased profitability attracts more miners, potentially saturating the market:

"Eventually other bitcoin miners plug more and more of their machines into the grid to chase digital gold and teal as more competition." [06:43]

Liz Moran from Earthjustice raises environmental concerns:

"Bitcoin mining consumes a lot of electricity—more than the entire country of Poland in a given year." [07:07]

Kristen Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association, notes that while Bitcoin is currently facing more political pushback than AI, the real solution lies in increasing clean energy sources:

"I don't think that we've seen that same level of scrutiny with AI. I certainly think it will probably ramp up as it gets bigger." [07:23]

Guy Berger adds that the clashing demands of AI and Bitcoin mining on energy grids necessitate sustainable energy expansions:

"The real solution is to add more clean energy sources to the grid in the first place." [08:04]

---

4. Retail Transformation: Butte Plaza Mall Sale and Future Plans

[08:38 – 14:00]

Alana Furco, manager of Butte Plaza Mall in Butte, Montana, shares insights into the recent sale and future redevelopment plans. The mall was sold in May to developers who aim to revitalize the space without disrupting the fourth-quarter business surge.

Alana Furco reflects positively on the change:

"Change is good and we're okay. Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together." [09:50]

She details the redevelopment strategy, which includes demolishing the north department store to make way for a new grocery store—strategic positioning to ensure consistent foot traffic:

"We're going to clear a wider footprint for a grocery store. You always want to plant a necessity so that people have a reason to need to come to the property." [10:26]

As her tenure approaches its end with her 40th anniversary coming up, Furco expresses readiness for new chapters:

"I've got eight grandkids and more chapters to write. So I think my energy is just, it's pretty much spent." [11:13]

She also shares positive outcomes from the holiday season:

"We had a couple stores that say it was their biggest ever. We had a great weekend." [12:18]

---

5. Holiday Season Employment: Seasonal Workers at Dakin Farm

[16:01 – 19:55]

Ryssdal highlights the significance of seasonal employment during the holiday rush, directing attention to Dakin Farm in Ferrisburg, Vermont. The company relies heavily on seasonal workers to fulfill the surge in orders for their popular gift boxes.

Sam Cutting, owner of Dakin Farm, underscores the critical role of seasonal employees:

"We've got two weeks to ship basically 40,000 packages. And so in order to do that, we bring in about 120 seasonal workers and we're just moving packages all over the place." [16:10]

Mark Hamrick interviews long-term seasonal worker Jack Pilla, who has worked at Dakin for 40 years, valuing the reliable income it provides alongside his other jobs.

Max Rady Bicknell, a 25-year-old seasonal employee, shares his experience of transitioning from the restaurant industry to Dakin Farm after job losses:

"I was a bartender and a brewer and I'm hopefully going to get back into that. But the restaurant that I worked at closed about a month ago." [17:43]

Tricia Cole, the company's bookkeeper and HR manager, highlights the flexibility offered to employees:

"Employees... can sign up for as many shifts as they want. And the number of shifts available goes up a lot over the next two weeks." [18:09]

Diane Marcotte, a veteran worker of 37 years, appreciates the flexibility and benefits:

"If I need time off, they will give me that time off. If I want overtime, they'll give me overtime." [18:37]

The segment concludes with anticipation of continued seasonal demand into early January.

---

6. Energy Efficiency: The Rise and Challenges of Heat Pumps

[19:55 – 24:22]

The podcast delves into the potential of heat pumps as an energy-efficient alternative for home heating and cooling. Despite their benefits, heat pump investments in the U.S. have declined slightly, facing regional adoption challenges.

Kayleigh Wells reports that heat pumps are particularly popular in the South but are gaining traction in colder regions like Maine:

"Nathan Wilcox didn't let the winters in Portland, Maine deter him from making the switch to heat pumps in 2022." [20:37]

Christian Agulis, President of PAE Engineers, explains the functionality and efficiency of heat pumps:

"Heat pumps transfer heat and are two to four times more efficient than, say, a gas furnace." [21:32]

In Maine, high heating oil costs have driven the adoption of heat pumps:

"Before Nathan Wilcox decided to install his heat pump, he got an eye-watering bill from his heating oil company." [22:31]

However, outside these favorable regions, high electricity costs in places like Northern California hinder adoption:

"In some parts of the country, electricity is five times more expensive than natural gas." [22:57]

Ethan Elkind from UC Berkeley highlights a barrier in contractor expertise:

"The contractor who comes to save the day might not even know how to install a heat pump." [23:26]

Moreover, Kayleigh Wells points out that federal and state incentives are crucial but may be at risk if political support wanes:

"Federal and state incentives promise thousands of dollars to the homeowners willing to make the switch to heat pumps unless President Elect Trump makes good on his promise to claw back that funding." [23:48]

---

7. Final Notes and Holiday Insights

[24:22 – End]

Ryssdal wraps up the episode with lighter fare, referencing a Chicago Tribune feature on how various notable figures in Chicago spend their holidays. Highlights include:

• Austan Goolsbee, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President, desires 2% inflation and a membership to the Illinois Mycological Association.

Additionally, Ryssdal promotes Marketplace's vehicle donation program, encouraging listeners to donate old cars to support journalism:

"Give it new life by donating it to Marketplace... Go to marketplace.org/vehicle to donate your car today." [Final Segment]

---

Key Takeaways:

• Labor Market: A blend of secular job growth and stagnant cyclical jobs shape the current economic landscape.
• Wages: Moderate wage growth is beneficial but uneven across the workforce, highlighting ongoing income disparities.
• Bitcoin: The cryptocurrency's rise benefits miners economically but poses significant environmental challenges.
• Retail Evolution: Traditional malls like Butte Plaza are undergoing transformative changes to stay relevant.
• Seasonal Employment: Companies like Dakin Farm exemplify the critical role of seasonal workers during peak periods.
• Energy Efficiency: Heat pumps offer a sustainable heating and cooling solution but face adoption hurdles outside supportive regions.

Marketplace continues to provide in-depth analysis and diverse perspectives, making complex economic and business news accessible to all listeners.

---

This summary is based on the transcript provided for the "Marketplace" podcast episode titled "Cyclical, Secular, Seasonal," released on December 6, 2024.

Transcript

[Kai Rysdal]

Jobs. That's it. That's the open From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kai Rysdal. It is Thursday today, the 5th of December. Good as always to have you along, everybody. It is a labor market trifecta. This week. We had the job openings and labor turnover survey on Tuesday, ADPs private sector jobs report yesterday, and the government's official unemployment tally for November comes tomorrow. And there will be the headline data for sure, the unemployment rate and jobs created. But it's going to be important to pay attention to the kinds of jobs being created too, because as Marketplace's Justin Ho reports, the kinds of jobs this economy is generating and the kind it isn't can tell us a whole bunch about this economy.

[Justin Ho]

One way to think about the labor market is to break it up into two categories. Jobs in sectors that ebb and flow with the cycles of the economy. Call them cyclical jobs and jobs in sectors that kind of do their own thing. Kathy Baschancik, chief economist at Nationwide, calls those jobs secular.

[Kai Rysdal]

There is some sensitivity, but they are.

[Kathy Baschancik]

Less sensitive to changes, short term changes in the economy than the very cyclical sectors would be.

[Justin Ho]

Boss Chancik says a good example of jobs in a secular sector are health care jobs. Those tend to reflect how much demand there is for health care as opposed to how fast the economy's growing.

[Kathy Baschancik]

People are aging. So whether we're in a booming economy or a recession, there's still going to be a certain level of demand people require when they're older for health care.

[Justin Ho]

Jobs in secular sectors, including health care, education and government, have accounted for a big share of the job gains over the last year. Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, says that's not necessarily bad.

[Kai Rysdal]

To some extent, jobs growth is jobs growth and more Americans being able to find jobs and earn an income at.

[Justin Ho]

Work is fundamentally a good thing. But one concern, Zhao says, is what can happen if those secular trends change. For instance, he says, education jobs are still catching up from a big downturn during the pandemic.

[Guy Berger]

That also suggests that that growth can't just keep going on forever, right? What happens when we do finally catch up, or what happens when funding for.

[Kai Rysdal]

School systems or local governments dries up?

[Justin Ho]

Meanwhile, cyclical jobs, the ones that are more connected to the broader economy, including manufacturing, construction and retail, those have basically been stagnant this year, says Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute.

[Guy Berger]

Right now, with monetary policy squeezing the economy at least a little, these sectors, you know, in general aren't generating the bulk of job gains.

[Justin Ho]

And Berger says jobs in those cyclical sectors could take a hit if the economy were to turn south. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

One of the other things to keep an eye on tomorrow is wages. Year over year. Wage growth has been, give or take, 4% for about a year now. November is expected to come in right near that, maybe down just a hair. But you remember that ADP private sector data I mentioned setting up Justin's story? They said this week that wages were up 4.8% for people who stayed in the same job. That's its first uptick in more than two years. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman is on that one for us.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Three years ago, the wage picture was great for workers, not so great for the economy. With severe labor shortages, workers had tons of bargaining power, says Dean Baker at the center for Economic and Policy Research.

[Kai Rysdal]

With wage growth over 6%, you can't have that without pretty high inflation. You had to see wage growth come down, and that's what happened.

[Mitchell Hartman]

4% is pretty much the sweet spot, says Baker, because as workers get more productive with AI and automation and better training, employers can afford to give out 4% raises without jacking up their prices too much. Wages, after accounting for inflation, have been rising since last year. But in a recent bank rate survey, a majority of workers said their incomes aren't keeping up with household expenses, says analyst Mark Hamrick.

[Mark Hamrick]

People lost buying power through a couple of years of outsized increases in prices. And so when we are talking about wages rising above the pace of inflation, we're really talking about sort of recapturing lost buying power.

[Mitchell Hartman]

61% of workers say they got a raise in the past year. Pretty decent, except it leaves nearly 40% who didn't.

[Mark Hamrick]

There is a kind of underclass of workers here. The federal minimum wage hasn't been increased.

[Kathy Baschancik]

For many, many years.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Meanwhile, the cost of working is going up, says Marshall Cohen at research firm Circana.

[Kai Rysdal]

More employees having to go back to the office and headquarter locations. They're going to have to have lunches out and buy some new wardrobe.

[Mitchell Hartman]

But with unemployment low and skilled labor in short supply, workers leverage to get higher wages is likely to stay strong into 2025. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace on Wall Street.

[Kai Rysdal]

On this Thursday. Not a lot of mojo. We'll have the details when we do the number you might have heard Bitcoin had a bit of a moment last night, the granddaddy of cryptocurrencies crossed the $100,000 mark, a record high needless to say it has settled back just a little bit today. But clearly bitcoiners are enthusiastic about a crypto friendly Trump administration. And those rising bitcoin prices are very good news for bitcoin miners. Of course, the companies with souped up computers that keep that whole blockchain thing going. The catch is what is good for those miners maybe is not so good for our environmental goals. Marketplace's Matt Levin has more on that one.

[Guy Berger]

Not surprisingly, bitcoin miners get paid in bitcoin. So when the price of bitcoin shoots up 40 grand like it has since April, bitcoin mining giant Mara holdings makes more money, at least for a while. Fred Thiel is Mara holdings CEO.

[Kai Rysdal]

There's this period of bull run, as the industry calls it, where miners can make a lot of money because price is running much faster than miners ability to add capacity.

[Guy Berger]

Eventually other bitcoin miners plug more and more of their machines into the grid to chase digital gold and teal as more competition. But generally speaking, he expects the good mining times to last, partly thanks to President elect Trump.

[Kai Rysdal]

He wants the US to be the biggest country relative to bitcoin mining and he wants to make sure that bitcoin miners have equal and fair access to energy.

[Guy Berger]

Bitcoin mining consumes a lot of electricity more than the entire country of Poland in a given year. Liz Moran at the environmental advocacy group Earthjustice says crypto mining is reinvigorating fossil fuel energy sources in some parts of the country.

[Kai Rysdal]

It's taking online gas plants that have actually been shuttered and bringing them back.

[Mark Hamrick]

Online just for the purposes of cryptocurrency mining.

[Guy Berger]

Bitcoin mining isn't the only new technology though, that's putting a new and significant strain on energy grids. Artificial intelligence companies are now competing with bitcoin miners for the same electricity sources to power their massive data centers. Blockchain Association CEO Kristen Smith says so far crypto has gotten more political pushback.

[Kathy Baschancik]

I don't think that we've seen that same level of scrutiny with AI. I certainly think it will probably ramp up as it gets bigger.

[Guy Berger]

She says the real solution is to add more clean energy sources to the grid in the first place. I'm Matt Lemon for MarketPL.

[Kai Rysdal]

We turn now from bitcoin to something a little more traditional, the good old fashioned shopping mall. Alana Furco is the manager of the Butte Plaza mall in Butte, Montana and we have been talking to her for years through the ups and downs of retail in this economy. Alana Ferko it has been a Long time, Kai.

[Kathy Baschancik]

It has been too long, hasn't it?

[Kai Rysdal]

How are you? How have you been? It's been like a year plus.

[Kathy Baschancik]

It has been a while. You know, lots, lots of going on, lots of good things, lots of changes.

[Kai Rysdal]

Well, let's just like, let's talk changes here. What's. You're selling them all? The mall is being sold. Developed. What's going on?

[Kathy Baschancik]

The mall sold in May. We had developers buy the mall in May and they've got some great plans. They did stress business as usual to get us through fourth quarter.

[Kai Rysdal]

Okay.

[Kathy Baschancik]

Because this, this is the money time for our businesses.

[Kai Rysdal]

I know.

[Kathy Baschancik]

And there's no way we wanted to impact that. So yeah, a lot of lasts that we're experiencing. You know, all the feels are out there. But change is good and we're okay. Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.

[Kai Rysdal]

Tell me how this sale happened. It was. You had something to do with it?

[Kathy Baschancik]

Well, years ago I bumped into a nice fellow in my back parking lot and he was getting into retail leasing and we just stayed connected over the years and it got to the point where it was too evident that we needed some change around here and it was good timing for them and obviously good timing for us.

[Kai Rysdal]

Yeah. We've talked about the challenges of the Butte Plaza Mall. What is going to happen to it? How are they going to revitalize it?

[Kathy Baschancik]

Well, it's very exciting. They're actually going to de mall, the north department store, the Herberger's department store. That means they're going to knock it down and bulldoze it. They're going to clear a wider footprint for a grocery store.

[Kai Rysdal]

Oh, that's smart.

[Kathy Baschancik]

We need a grocery store. You always want to plant a necessity so that people have a reason to need to come to the property. Right. And groceries is the number one.

[Kai Rysdal]

Can we talk about you for a minute? Last time you were on, which again was a year plus ago, you know, you shared that you were getting up there and you've been at the mall for a long time. And how much longer are you going to be there, do you think? Is this sale going to be it for you, do you think?

[Kathy Baschancik]

They have been so amazing and gracious. They understand that my 40th anniversary will be February 1st of 2025. And they have been so gracious to let me be a part of this until that time. And maybe I'll stay on for phase one, which is demolition. I'm 60 now. I've got eight grandkids and more chapters to write. So I think my energy is just, it's pretty much spent.

[Kai Rysdal]

Yeah. Yeah. You know, it's funny. You sound positive. I was ready for you to be sad and a little wistful about leaving the mall. And maybe you are a little bit. But it's okay.

[Kathy Baschancik]

You know what? It's okay. This place has been good to me and I have loved this building because I've loved the people inside of it. But it's okay. It's time to change. And I think that means it's okay for me to change a little bit, too. Right?

[Kai Rysdal]

Yeah.

[Kathy Baschancik]

So lots of good things ahead for all of us.

[Kai Rysdal]

Before I let you go, we have to get to the business of it. How was Black Friday, the holiday shopping season? As we talked about at the beginning, the fourth quarter's biggie for you guys.

[Kathy Baschancik]

It is. And I know nationally they call it Black Friday, we call it Golden Friday. And it was amazing. Everybody hit their numbers. We had a couple stores that say it was their biggest ever. We had a great weekend. Of course, we have our winter market. A lot of vendors in the winter market. Everybody realized this is the last of it and they all want to be part of it. Lots of smiley faces, lots of hugs. Yes. Some tears. But it's okay. It's all good.

[Kai Rysdal]

It is all good.

[Kathy Baschancik]

There I go again. It is. It's all good. We all move forward together.

[Kai Rysdal]

Alana Furco has been on this program for, well, we looked it up. We think it's at least 10 years, maybe more. She's the manager of the Butte Plaza Mall till February. February. Alana, thank you so much. It's been, it's been lovely getting to know you.

[Kathy Baschancik]

It has been, Kai. And thank you and to your team. You've got the best team.

[Kai Rysdal]

I do.

[Kathy Baschancik]

I appreciate all that you've done and helping us share our story and all of your listeners for, for their good wishes and reaching out to us as well.

[Kai Rysdal]

Be good. We'll talk to you soon.

[Kathy Baschancik]

Take care.

[Mark Hamrick]

Coming up, it's an air conditioning unit that can run in reverse and make heat too.

[Kai Rysdal]

Modern technology. Am I right? First, though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials down 248 today. 6. 10%. 44,765. The NASDAQ gave back 34 points about 2. 10%. 19,700. The S&P 500 down 11 points. Also 2. 10%. 6,075. A federal judge in Texas rejected a proposed plea deal between Boeing and the Justice Department relating to the two fatal crashes involving those Boeing 737s. The judge cited the diversity, equity and inclusion considerations imposed on hiring an outside monitor to oversee Boeing's future legal compliance. Boeing dipped 1% on that. We heard from Matt Levin about Bitcoin's record rise above $100,000. Coinbase down three and a 10th percent. Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms down 4.9%. Day Mitchell Hartman, wage growth was historian today looking at some payroll stocks. ADP shed 6.10percent paychecks with an X. Paycheques like the cereal lost 1 and a 10th%. Trinet Group up 6.10%. Bond prices went up too. The yield on the 10 year T note fell to 4.18%. You're listening to Marketplace. Hey everybody, it's Kai. Listen, is it time to upgrade your car? Give it new life by donating it to Marketplace? We'll use the proceeds to bring you more news about finance and the economy and how they affect. Let us turn your old car into a donation to power the journalism you rely on. Go to marketplace.orgvehicle to donate your car today. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Ryssdal. As I mentioned up at the top of the program, we're going to get the November unemployment report tomorrow morning. And among all the industry by industry breakdowns, keep your eye on retail, which typically staffs up this time of year for the holiday shopping rush, which means lots of workers taking on temporary seasonal jobs in all those stores and warehouses. Marketplace's Henriette visited one Vermont company where seasonal workers are oh so essential.

[Mark Hamrick]

Dakin Farm in Ferrisburg, Vermont, makes gift boxes full of food products from New England. The most popular, says owner Sam Cutting, are the breakfast boxes.

[Justin Ho]

And the basic breakfast would be pure Vermont maple syrup pancake mix and Cobb smoked bacon.

[Mark Hamrick]

There are two retail stores, but the bulk of the business is shipping gift boxes across the country. And the v majority of those, Cutting says, are ordered and shipped right now in the weeks leading up to Christmas.

[Justin Ho]

We've got two weeks to ship basically 40,000 packages. And so in order to do that, we bring in about 120 seasonal workers and we're just moving packages all over the place.

[Mark Hamrick]

In the packing room on the second floor of a renovated barn, those seasonal workers pull cheeses and meats from refrigerators, jams and honey from shelves and get them into boxes which get pushed down a conveyor belt.

[Kai Rysdal]

We're always busy. We're Santa's little elves.

[Mark Hamrick]

Jack Pilla has been working here seasonally for 40 years. He keeps coming back, in part, he says, because it's a reliable chunk of income to supplement other work he does the rest of the year.

[Kai Rysdal]

I've got multiple jobs.

[Guy Berger]

I'm a running coach.

[Kai Rysdal]

I am a landscaper, a carpenter. I've always been self employed, so this can fit into my schedule.

[Mark Hamrick]

Pay starts at $18 an hour more for returning employees. Most workers here also have other seasonal jobs the rest of the year. The rate of people working multiple jobs has long been higher in Vermont than the national average, according to the Census Bureau. But some are here after losing work, like 25 year old max Rady Bicknell.

[Kai Rysdal]

Well, I was a bartender and a brewer and I'm hopefully going to get back into that. But the restaurant that I worked at closed about a month ago.

[Mark Hamrick]

He'd worked seasonally at Dakin for the past six winters, so he knew he could come back. And he brought some of his former restaurant co workers with him.

[Kai Rysdal]

We were all kind of talking, you know, having our shift drinks at the end of the night. It's like, all right, what are we gonna do next? And I was like, I can go work at Dakin. He's like, okay, sure, Great.

[Kathy Baschancik]

We don't have a minimum number of.

[Kai Rysdal]

Shifts or a maximum number of shifts.

[Mark Hamrick]

Tricia Cole is the company's bookkeeper and HR manager. Employees, she says, can sign up for as many shifts as they want. And the number of shifts available goes up a lot over the next two weeks.

[Kai Rysdal]

This Saturday will be our first weekend, and then starting Next Monday, the 9th is when we'll start night shifts.

[Mark Hamrick]

Flexibility is part of what keeps Diane Marcotte coming back. For 37 years now she works in the call center.

[Justin Ho]

If I need time off, they will give me that time off. If I want overtime, they'll give me overtime.

[Mark Hamrick]

But her favorite perk is the employee discount. 30%.

[Justin Ho]

And I order at Christmas time, 20 pounds of bacon, 20 pounds of sausage, and about eight spiral hams.

[Mark Hamrick]

Those orders have given her a pretty strong familiarity with the company's catalog, which comes in handy on the phone.

[Justin Ho]

When I talk with people, I think they can tell that I'm honestly talking to them about knowledge of the products too. So, yes, but I have to get back to work.

[Kai Rysdal]

Thank you for calling Dakin Farm.

[Kathy Baschancik]

This is Diane.

[Mark Hamrick]

The company's expecting a rush of orders over the next week. Its seasonal workforce will stick around till early January. In Ferrisburg, Vermont, I'm Henry Epp for Marketplace sa.

[Kai Rysdal]

Most of the talk of the clean energy transition centers on electric vehicles and solar panels, Right? But there are some sleepers out there, too, specifically heat pumps. They can warm your water and heat and cool your house, all while generating way less carbon than burning fossil fuels in a furnace or a boiler. Which is good because heating and cooling where we live accounts for about 20% of all of this country's carbon emissions. Except they're not really catching on. Heat pump investments in the United States, it turns out, are actually down slightly this year. Marketplace Kelly Wells explains why heat pumps.

[Kayleigh Wells]

Are most popular in the South. But they've got some fans in places that get Maine in February cold.

[Kai Rysdal]

When it gets down to like 10 degrees or whatever, the heat pumps are sufficient for heating.

[Kayleigh Wells]

Nathan Wilcox didn't let the winters in Portland, Maine deter him from making the switch to heat pumps in 2022, he's giving the grand tour of his century old home, or rather its H Vac system.

[Kai Rysdal]

Okay, so we're outside. So that's the outside unit. So you can see the white tubes go up along the outside of the.

[Justin Ho]

House and then they go through the.

[Kai Rysdal]

Wall into where the various inside units are.

[Kayleigh Wells]

In other words, it looks like the outside component of a central air conditioner, but it hums in the dead of winter, too.

[Mark Hamrick]

It's an air conditioning unit that can run in reverse and make heat, too.

[Kayleigh Wells]

Christian Agulis is a mechanical engineer and president of a clean energy firm called PAE Engineers.

[Mark Hamrick]

Its job is to take heat from the inside and reject it outside.

[Kayleigh Wells]

In the winter, it just does the reverse. And even when it's sub freezing outside, there is still heat that can get pumped into the house. Constant technical improvements mean heat pumps can extract heat from colder and colder air. Agula says they're effective down to 10 or 15 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. They run on electricity, which can come from renewables, and they're two to four times more efficient than, say, a gas furnace.

[Mark Hamrick]

Gas furnaces generate heat, and heat pumps transfer heat.

[Kayleigh Wells]

And moving something takes less energy than making something. Heat pumps have taken off in Maine because gas furnaces aren't a great option there. Utilities didn't see much point in installing lots of gas pipelines for the state's spread out population. Instead, Maine depends on home heating oil more than any other state. And that stuff is not cheap. Right before Nathan Wilcox decided to install his heat pump, he got an eye watering bill from his heating oil company.

[Kai Rysdal]

For $1,320 and you can have to refill two to three times during the winter. And so that was the wake up call for us.

[Kayleigh Wells]

Mainers are installing heat pumps three times faster than the national average. But outside the northeastern heat pump haven, wherever natural gas is more popular the number of heat pumps shipped in the US Went down last year. There's a reason for that, says mechanical engineer Christian Agulis.

[Mark Hamrick]

In some parts of the country, electricity is five times more expensive than natural gas.

[Kayleigh Wells]

He lives in Northern California, home to some of the highest electric bills in the country.

[Mark Hamrick]

At four times more efficient, it's still more expensive to run if your electricity rate is really high.

[Kayleigh Wells]

The other problem, even when a homeowner is interested in investigating whether a heat pump might make sense, if it's February and the boiler goes out, that's an.

[Mark Hamrick]

Emergency and they're not going to have the time to do the research on heat pumps.

[Kayleigh Wells]

Ethan Elkind with UC Berkeley center for Law, Energy and the Environment says the contractor who comes to save the day might not even know how to install a heat pump.

[Mark Hamrick]

Then people aren't going to demand to get a heat pump, and then they're not going to see the demand. Encourage more contractors to start selling heat pumps.

[Kayleigh Wells]

Federal and state incentives promise thousands of dollars to the homeowners willing to make the switch to heat pumps unless President Elect Trump makes good on his promise to claw back that funding. I'm Kayleigh Wells for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

This final note on the way out today in which you learned something new every day. The Chicago Tribune had a feature story today, various notables of the Windy City on how they spend their holidays, what's on their wish lists, things like that. For Federal Reserve bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, he would like 2% inflation and a renewable membership to the Illinois Mycological association, to which he apparently belongs, of or relating to the study of fungi. Mushrooms. Who knew? John Buckley, John Gordon. Come on, we've had the guy on the show like a dozen times. Mushrooms. John Buckley, John Gordon, Noya Carr, Diana Parker, Amanda Peacher and Stephanie Seek are the Marketplace editing staff. Amir Babawe is the managing editor and I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow. Everybody, this is apm. Hey, it's Kai. My minivan and I, as I've said on the radio, have logged a lot of miles with Marketplace. Luckily, it's still running, you know, pretty well. But if your car doesn't drive as well as it used to, listen up. It can still help drive Marketplace. When you donate your old car or truck, we'll use the proceeds to support the great programs you hear every day. Start your vehicle [e-mail] vehicle.