Demographics are destiny

Summary

Summary of "Demographics are Destiny" - Marketplace

Podcast Information:

• Title: Marketplace
• Host: Kai Ryssdal
• Episode: Demographics are Destiny
• Release Date: January 27, 2025

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Overview

In the January 27, 2025 episode titled "Demographics are Destiny," Marketplace host Kai Ryssdal delves into the profound economic implications of an aging population. Using Cumberland County, Tennessee, as a case study, the episode examines how demographic shifts are reshaping local communities, labor markets, and broader economic landscapes both in the United States and globally. The discussion highlights the tensions between a growing retiree population and a shrinking workforce, exploring the challenges and opportunities that arise from these changes.

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Key Sections

1. Introduction: The Aging Economy (00:33)

Kai Ryssdal sets the stage by emphasizing the significance of demographic changes over immediate market news. He introduces the concept that an aging population holds more importance for the economy's future than daily financial fluctuations.

2. Cumberland County, Tennessee: A Microcosm of Demographic Shifts (00:33 - 05:08)

Neela Richardson, ADP's Chief Economist, explains that Cumberland County, with a median worker age of 47, exemplifies the increasing age of the workforce. ADP Research identified this county as having one of the oldest workforces in the United States, driven by older residents settling in areas like Fairfield Glade, a prominent retirement community.

Melissa Ellis (02:58): "Demographics are destiny. When you have more people who are retirement age than who are going into working age, it changes consumption patterns, deficits."

3. Economic Implications of an Aging Population (05:08 - 16:00)

The discussion explores several economic facets influenced by demographic shifts:

• Labor Force Dynamics: A shrinking prime-age workforce (25-54 years old) contrasts with a growing retiree segment, affecting labor supply and economic productivity.

• Consumption and Inflation: With more retirees and fewer workers, consumption patterns shift, potentially leading to higher inflation unless labor supply increases through mechanisms like immigration.

• Real Estate Market: Fairfield Glade's real estate boom, with property prices soaring by approximately 70% since 2020, illustrates how higher-income retirees influx can create tensions with existing residents.

Melissa Ellis (04:36): "In Japan, they're even further along this trajectory where they have older workers and retiring populations being supported by an increasingly shrinking prime age workforce."

4. On-the-Ground Perspectives (08:02 - 16:04)

Mary Jo Page, Marketing Director of Fairfield Glade Community Club, discusses how retirement communities manage growth and meet the demands of an aging population. She highlights the balance between attracting new retirees and maintaining services for existing residents.

Jeff Arms, a local realtor, provides insights into the real estate dynamics in Fairfield Glade. He notes the significant rise in property prices and the challenges it poses for locals with median incomes below $60,000.

Jeff Arms (13:09): "Fairfield Glade's median age is almost 70... We've grown 32% over the last 11 years."

5. Residents' Experiences: Balancing Growth and Affordability (21:06 - 26:32)

Residents like Melissa Ellis and Neela Richardson share personal stories highlighting the economic and emotional stresses of living in an aging community. They discuss the challenges of affording rising living costs, raising children, and maintaining financial stability on fixed incomes.

Neela Richardson (24:13): "We have to watch what we do for the rest of the month... Lately, grocery prices are way high. I had to buy a new car this last month. It's tight."

6. Global Context: Similar Trends Worldwide (03:59 - 04:36)

The episode broadens the discussion to include global trends, noting that developed economies like Japan, Europe, and China are experiencing similar aging demographics. The future workforce is expected to shift towards younger populations in developing regions such as Africa and South Asia, raising concerns about economic competitiveness and labor markets.

Melissa Ellis (04:36): "In Japan, they're even further along this trajectory where they have older workers and retiring populations being supported by an increasingly shrinking prime age workforce."

7. Future Outlook: The Age of Work Series (16:04 - 17:52)

Marketplace introduces an ongoing series titled "Age of Work," which will continue to explore how demographic shifts influence the global economy. The series aims to examine policy decisions, business strategies, and individual experiences as the economy adapts to an aging population.

8. Conclusion: Opportunities and Challenges Ahead (27:15 - End)

Kai Ryssdal concludes by emphasizing that demographic changes present both opportunities and challenges. Policymakers, businesses, and communities must navigate these shifts to foster economic stability and growth. The interplay between aging populations and workforce dynamics will continue to shape economic landscapes in the decades to come.

Neela Richardson (26:32): "I have a legitimate fear that I will never get to retire and I will have to work until I'm dead."

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Notable Quotes

• Melissa Ellis (02:58): "Demographics are destiny. When you have more people who are retirement age than who are going into working age, it changes consumption patterns, deficits."

• Neela Richardson (24:13): "We have to watch what we do for the rest of the month... Lately, grocery prices are way high. I had to buy a new car this last month. It's tight."

• Jeff Arms (13:09): "Fairfield Glade's median age is almost 70... We've grown 32% over the last 11 years."

• Neela Richardson (26:32): "I have a legitimate fear that I will never get to retire and I will have to work until I'm dead."

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Insights

• Economic Transformation: An aging population significantly alters labor markets, consumption patterns, and economic productivity, necessitating adaptive strategies from policymakers and businesses.

• Real Estate Dynamics: Retirement communities like Fairfield Glade experience rapid real estate growth, which can lead to affordability issues for existing residents and shift local economic landscapes.

• Personal Struggles: Even in economically growing communities, individuals face financial stresses due to rising living costs and insufficient income growth, highlighting the complex nature of demographic changes.

• Global Implications: The aging trend is not isolated to the U.S.; developed nations worldwide are grappling with similar issues, indicating a global shift in economic and labor market dynamics.

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Conclusions

"Demographics are Destiny" underscores that the aging population is a critical factor shaping the future economy. As more individuals reach retirement age, the balance between retirees and the working-age population shifts, creating both challenges and opportunities. Communities must adapt to these changes by addressing labor shortages, modifying consumption patterns, and ensuring economic stability. Globally, similar trends suggest widespread economic transformations, emphasizing the need for comprehensive strategies to manage the implications of an aging workforce.

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This detailed summary captures the essence of the Marketplace episode, highlighting key discussions, insights, and personal narratives that illustrate the profound impact of demographic shifts on the economy.

Transcript

[Neela Richardson]

VantageScore is the fastest growing and most predictive credit score used by 8 out of the 10 largest banks and over 34 banks, fintechs and other companies nationwide. VantageScore is mandated for use for mortgages. Funded by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Vantage Score drives financial inclusions by scoring approximately 33 million more consumers than competitive credit scores. VantageScore Good for credit Crit Credit for Good. Learn [e-mail] yes, there was market news.

[Kai Rysdal]

Today and we will get to it. But you know what's even more important to this economy? How old everybody's getting. From American public media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Con Rysdal. It is Monday today, 27th January. Good as always to have you with us, everybody. A couple of months ago in Cumberland County, Tennessee, right next to a well used pickleball court, I met up with a colleague. Hey, how are you? It's good to see you.

[Neela Richardson]

I'm great.

[Kai Rysdal]

Look at you. You look fresh from travel and everything. Holy cow. We're all just like beat up, literally. That is ADP chief economist Neela Richardson. Here we are. I'm seeing my first pickleball game ever, by the way. Why are we here?

[Melissa Ellis]

Here meaning rural Tennessee at a.

[Kai Rysdal]

You're Cumberland County, Tennessee.

[Melissa Ellis]

We are here because Cumberland county is the future.

[Kai Rysdal]

Cumberland county is about halfway between Nashville and Knoxville, population a hair under 65,000. And about a third of them are 65 years old or older. So how then is this place the future?

[Melissa Ellis]

So if you look at people demographics and look at the trajectory over the next 10 years, what you'll see is that we in the US are a population that is aging. We're aging because boomers are hitting retirement age over 65 and because you younger people are not having children at the same rate, which leads to places like Cumberland.

[Kai Rysdal]

ADP handles payroll for more than 40 million workers all over the planet, which means it is sitting on reams of data about workers in this economy and everywhere else. And I should say ADP Research is funding this project and we asked Neela to crunch some numbers for us on the places with the oldest workers in the United States. Cumberland county, with a median worker age of 47, was right near the top of that list.

[Melissa Ellis]

That's why we're here. The data brought us here.

[Kai Rysdal]

I think I know why it matters, but you're the trained economist in the conversation. Why does it matter?

[Melissa Ellis]

It changes the economy. Economists love to say this demographics are destiny. When you have more people who are retirement age than who are going into working age. It changes consumption patterns, deficits. The list is endless. And so what Cumberland represents is that tension between an aging population and a workforce who is struggling to keep up.

[Kai Rysdal]

Demographers will tell you, should you ask that the United States has hit peak 65 with just about 4 million people reaching retirement age every year. It is the biggest wave of retirements in history. And that tension that Neelam mentioned between an aging population and the workforce supporting them is spilling over into debates about entitlement spending and deficits and immigration and the competitiveness of US Businesses. In a word, about the future of this economy. We're going to get to the global part of this in a minute. But it's not just here, right?

[Melissa Ellis]

No. In fact, if you look at any advanced economy, whether it's Europe, China, Japan, you see the same demographics at play. In fact, in Japan, they're even further along this trajectory where they have older workers and retiring populations being supported by an increasingly shrinking prime age workforce. Now, over the next 30, 40 years, those prime age workers will be in Africa and South Asia, no longer in advanced economies, but but in developing economies, some of them very, very poor.

[Kai Rysdal]

Prime age workers. What Neela's talking about here are people between 25 and 54. They helped drive the American economy in the 20th century. And that group has made up a shrinking share of the US labor force since the 1990s. We're not even in the top 10 anymore. All right, so let's use that to bring it back home. Right. If Africa, Southeast Asia, traditionally poor economies have the demographic upper hand in the next half century or so. Right. What's that going to mean for us?

[Melissa Ellis]

Well, one thing it's going to mean is we're seeing more and more workers work for a longer period of time. They have to. Now, there's some good things that are underlying that. Health outcomes are better. People are living longer, they're being healthier into retirement. So for some people, this is not a bad life. But in terms of the economy, when you have more retirees on the backs of fewer workers, it leads to higher inflation. Unless there's some way to get more labor supply when there's so much labor demand, which is an immigration question that's one of many.

[Kai Rysdal]

Okay, so in the next two days, we're going to talk to a bunch of people. What are you looking for? What are the things that are on your mind as we set out on this reporting trip?

[Melissa Ellis]

First time looking for a beautiful place to retire. You are younger than I am, and.

[Kai Rysdal]

I will just Say I'm not thinking about it, so don't you dare.

[Melissa Ellis]

This is a really pretty place.

[Kai Rysdal]

It's gorgeous, right?

[Melissa Ellis]

Secondly, I'm looking for how people thrive in retirement. This is not just an economic issue. This is a quality of life issue. So if a community reorients itself to its aging population, what happens to the younger folks who are still here? Schools, extracurricular activities, housing. How does a community solve that problem? That's why I said immigration is not a singular solution.

[Kai Rysdal]

No. Right.

[Melissa Ellis]

To all the issues that come up when you talk about aging and demographics.

[Kai Rysdal]

We came to Cumberland county to explore what happens to a place when working age people get outnumbered. And we thought we were going to find stories about a gradually graying rural community with young people leaving and older people forced to keep working. What we found, though, is much more complicated. And if demographics are destiny, then the dynamics at play here now are going to affect decisions that policymakers and business owners and the rest of us make every single day and in time, are going to transform every part of this economy and beyond. This is the start of a new series that we're calling the Age of Work about how the demographic shifts happening here and abroad are shaking up the global economy. Our first stop is about 100 yards down the road from those pickleball courts at a community center. Oh, it's nice in here. It's a little boomy, though. Little echoey.

[Melissa Ellis]

How are you? I'm Richardson.

[Mary Jo Page]

Paige.

[Melissa Ellis]

Nice to meet you. Nice to meet you.

[Kai Rysdal]

I'm Mary Jo. Kai Rysdal. Nice to see you.

[Mary Jo Page]

How are you? Nice to meet you.

[Kai Rysdal]

Mary Jo Page is the marketing director of the Fairfield Glade Community Club. It's a homeowners association, but a really big one.

[Mary Jo Page]

You want to come back?

[Kai Rysdal]

Yeah, but actually, first. Wait, can you. I just saw this map over here.

[Mary Jo Page]

Okay.

[Kai Rysdal]

Can you tell me where we are on this thing? Yes, just. I need to orient myself. We are right here to orient you. I have to explain that Fairfield Glade is a retirement community with about 9,500 residents 10 or so miles from Crossville, the county seat.

[Mary Jo Page]

Well, it's 12,000 acres, so it's a big.

[Kai Rysdal]

Lots of lakes and lots of golf courses.

[Mary Jo Page]

Yeah, 11 lakes, five golf courses. Well, thank you. Yeah, we love it here. We got a constant flow of people that are falling in love with Fairfield Glade and ultimately want to live here.

[Kai Rysdal]

Says the marketing person. All right, let's go. Something you should know about Mary Jo. She is always selling Fairfield Glade.

[Mary Jo Page]

These are our ballrooms.

[Kai Rysdal]

There's three of Them on the way to her office. She walked us past gymnasiums. You can hear the pickleball through the doors. A cafe.

[Mary Jo Page]

This is an Olympic sized pool.

[Kai Rysdal]

And then showed us into her plushly furnished office.

[Mary Jo Page]

I don't think we can fit everybody in here.

[Kai Rysdal]

Yeah, we totally can. Mary Jo has been working in advertising for decades. She's been in charge of marketing here at Fairfield Glade since 2013. And like a lot of people you find here, she's not originally from Tennessee.

[Mary Jo Page]

Well, I grew up in the Chicago area originally, but I lived in Florida longer than I lived in the Chicago area. But I got down there and I loved it. And you either love that or you don't. My husband hated it. So we're what, what you call halfbacks. Have you heard that terminology? Halfbacks are people that live in the midwest, the northeast, move to Florida, decide it's not for them, and they go halfway back.

[Melissa Ellis]

Halfway back.

[Kai Rysdal]

That's great. Because of those halfbacks and other retirees just looking to escape northern winters, the median age in Fairfield glade is almost 70.

[Mary Jo Page]

Over the last 11 years that I've been here, we've grown 32%.

[Melissa Ellis]

I'm curious what happened during the pandemic.

[Mary Jo Page]

That's when the remote work started. And when the remote work started with people, they were like, why in the world would I want to stay in California? No offense, but they were saying that. And then they were like, we'll come here. We can remote work, we can hike, we can do all these things outside where you don't really have to worry about human contact. Because remember how strange it was there.

[Melissa Ellis]

For a while when like projecting 10 years from now. Is there ever a point where it starts to change in character when there's so many people, maybe too many people coming?

[Mary Jo Page]

I think it's been very measured growth that we've been able to handle. And I suppose if you really were anti growth and you just don't want change like some of the folks where I live currently are, they don't like the change.

[Melissa Ellis]

Is the labor force there to support that growth as well?

[Mary Jo Page]

I hope we're going to develop that. Really I do. I know hospitality. I know the state is really focused on that too, because our number two industry is tourism in Tennessee. I'm really anxious for you to tour the area.

[Kai Rysdal]

We will. We're going out tomorrow. Mary Jo has to project confidence about the future of Fairfield Glade. That is her job. But you can tell the workforce is on her mind. A lot of the people who live here in Fairfield glade don't work 9 to 5. Some take shifts at the community center or the racket club. They get free golf in return, and many of them do volunteer work. But this is a community where most residents are well past their peak working years. As we promised Mary Jo, the next morning, we took a tour.

[Jeff Arms]

Kai, what's happening? Welcome to paradise.

[Kai Rysdal]

There we go. Are you loving it?

[Jeff Arms]

Are you digging it?

[Kai Rysdal]

It's gonna rain today, though. It's nice weather. It is gonna rain. Look around if you don't like the.

[Jeff Arms]

Weather, just wait 15 minutes.

[Kai Rysdal]

That's local realtor Jeff Arms. What kind of car are you driving?

[Jeff Arms]

My four door truck.

[Kai Rysdal]

All right.

[Jeff Arms]

Chevy Silverado. Just like Dale Earnhardt.

[Kai Rysdal]

Just like Dale Earnhardt. Neil and I climbed into his truck.

[Melissa Ellis]

Riding shotgun with you and let him show us around.

[Jeff Arms]

These are our brand new bocce ball courts. Really exciting for our retirement community here.

[Kai Rysdal]

We drove through leafy neighborhoods of ranch homes, looking out over lakes and golf courses.

[Jeff Arms]

Lots of nature, lots of deer. You guys tell me or I'll just keep on rambling. You're not gonna put that in it, are you?

[Kai Rysdal]

You're doing good. Well, I don't know.

[Jeff Arms]

You're gonna edit that part out, right?

[Kai Rysdal]

Depends on how you do it, man. We noticed quite a few out of state flags, too. People repping The San Francisco 49ers and Ohio State Buckeyes and other teams far from Tennessee. You've lived here for 25 years. You live in Fairfield, Glen.

[Jeff Arms]

Yes, sir.

[Kai Rysdal]

Would you come when you were like 25?

[Jeff Arms]

Yeah, well, actually, yeah, I just graduated from college. I went to turf grass school and started selling the dream. Eventually.

[Kai Rysdal]

The reason we're driving around is to get a sense of how Cumberland county is changing. The typical person moving to Fairfield Glade, the kind of people that Jeff takes on tours like this one are older and wealthier than the local population.

[Melissa Ellis]

So what does the typical home sell for around in Fairfield?

[Jeff Arms]

Fairfield Glade. The prices range from 200,000 to a million and a half.

[Melissa Ellis]

That's a big range.

[Kai Rysdal]

A million and a half gets you a lot around here, I bet.

[Jeff Arms]

Oh, it does. And now at one time, before COVID before inflation and before supply chains and whatnot, people were building houses down here, coming from California or from Chicago or someplace like that. And they were getting three times the house they could buy where they were. Now we've caught up to the rest of the world, but you're still your million dollars. And as far as the taxes go, Tennessee's wonderful climate for your retirement money.

[Melissa Ellis]

I was looking at taxes. And some of the homes for sale in crossville, and they're low. I'm from New Jersey, so I'll position it that way. But they're what, a couple thousand on a $500,000 thousand for 300.

[Jeff Arms]

And now that's just. We're speaking very generally. I'm not a. I'm not a. There's one of our little mountain views from the golf course.

[Kai Rysdal]

Fairfield glade kind of operates like its own city, Even though it's on unincorporated county land. The HoA, which is of course funded by monthly fees from the residents.

[Jeff Arms]

$118 if you're on the main sewer.

[Kai Rysdal]

Pays for its own police force and road department. So who does? Like, who's on your road crew? Where do they work?

[Jeff Arms]

This guy right here.

[Kai Rysdal]

Well, where do they live? They're not living here in Fairfield glade, right?

[Jeff Arms]

No, most of these boys are from the county. But then again, there are opportunities for the. For the brand new retirees, or even not even. So, brand new retirees that can come to Fairfield glade work at one of the golf courses at the marina and you get your free amenities.

[Melissa Ellis]

Do you work mostly with buyers or sellers?

[Jeff Arms]

Buyers. I love the buyers. The buyers are the happy ones. They're finally getting to be retired and be kids again. I always call them the new kids on the block because basically they are. No job, Brand new place. Got this one closing next week. Nice house.

[Melissa Ellis]

So when people sell, do they stay in Fairfield or do they move out?

[Jeff Arms]

Absolutely not. They've got to go for family. They've got to go because they've gotten older or family member has gotten older. Something like that. Fairfield's never permanent for anybody. So my advice to you is to get here as early as you can so that you can enjoy it and play all the golf you can stand and all the hiking and all the fun stuff.

[Kai Rysdal]

The median income in Cumberland county is less than $60,000 a year. But a lot of the new construction here in Fairfield glade is aimed at much higher income residents.

[Jeff Arms]

When this lake was finished, we had a huge growth spurt in Fairfield and people were coming down here and building these mansions that were basically costing a quarter or so of the price that they were getting where they were from.

[Kai Rysdal]

That's one of the tensions at play as demographic changes shuffle where people live. Retirees with buying power come here. Increasing demand for certain services like construction and lawn care, which then changes things for the people who are already here. One of those people coming up after the break. But first, let's do the numbers. Well, here you go. Dow Industrials up 289 points today, about 2/3%. 44713 Nasdaq obviously went the other way, down 612 at the close it was 720 or something early in the session. 3 and a 10% at the bell 19341s and P 500 dragged down as well percent and a half 88 points 6012 Tech stocks, of course, plummeted after the Chinese AI startup Deepseek saw the rapid rise of a low cost chatbot it launched last week. Firm said it developed the app for a fraction of the cost of rival US Technology, raising concerns, as you know, about American competitiveness in the field. And also, and this is significant, about the large sums being invested by US companies like, oh, Microsoft off 2 and a 10%. Micron Technology dropped 11 and 7 10% Nvidia chip design company might have heard of tumbled almost 17% today. Bond prices went up. The yield on the 10 year T note down 4.53%. This obviously this whole AI thing, it's a story to watch and we will you're listening to Marketplace.

[Unknown]

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[Kai Rysdal]

This economy can be complicated. That's why the Marketplace newsletter makes understanding it all simple. Get Smart takes on the week's biggest stories delivered to your inbox every Friday. Friday. No jargon, no hype, just economics you can use. Sign up [e-mail] subscribe hi, I'm Kai Rysdal, the host of How We Survive. This season is all about the institution that shaped me. The US Military and how it could shape the future of climate tech. You've probably heard that 2024 was the hottest year on record. That wildfires devastated Los Angeles and that the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement. And while all that might feel pretty terrible, the climate crisis is not an inevitable reality. From simulated climate emergencies to micro grids and sustainable aviation fuel, we look at how the military is investing part of its $850 billion budget in a greener, more resilient future. Listen to how we survive. Wherever you get your podcasts. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Ryssdal. We're starting a series today about what happens to an economy when working age people get outnumbered by people who are past their peak working years. We're calling it the Age of Work. In Cumberland County, Tennessee, that demographic shift is already well underway. It's a place with one of the oldest workforces in the country. That's according to adp. And it has two distinct populations. There's Fairfield Glade, a retirement community dotted with golf courses and man made lakes. And there's the town of Crossville, which is more duplexes and mobile home parks, fewer bocce ball courts and lakefront mansions. And at 7pm in the middle of November, it smells like fall out here. It was pitch black outside Melissa Ellis's house. Hi, kitty cat. Hi. Oh, I don't know. I don't usually just walk into strangers homes. That's not a thing I do. Hi, I'm Kai.

[Neela Richardson]

Hi, I'm Melissa.

[Kai Rysdal]

Nice to see you, Melissa. How are you?

[Neela Richardson]

I'm doing good, doing good. Excuse the mess.

[Melissa Ellis]

Hi, Melissa, I'm Neela.

[Neela Richardson]

Hi, nice to meet you.

[Kai Rysdal]

Thanks for taking the time. We appreciate it. Sorry to crash in your home.

[Neela Richardson]

No, you're fine. No, you're fine. We've been working all day. We've had a birthday party all weekend. So nice.

[Kai Rysdal]

Very good.

[Neela Richardson]

We're doing the best we can.

[Kai Rysdal]

Melissa's 47, she's got four kids and she is a longtime Crossville Residential. Is that an electronic drum set?

[Neela Richardson]

Yes, it is. My husband's a drummer.

[Kai Rysdal]

That's awesome.

[Neela Richardson]

It's really great when we have to do like practices with me on keys and him there and we'll get to.

[Kai Rysdal]

The practicing thing in a minute. First thing and you want you to do is tell us who you are and what do you do around here.

[Neela Richardson]

Okay. So my name's Melissa Ellis and I feel like, I guess I'm the resident musician. I do jazz music. I feel like the music I do Is kind of a favorite in the Fairfield Glade area, which is the retirement community. My music isn't exclusive exciting to most of the locals because it's not Skynyrd is how I usually say Freebird. I know, and I do have people. I could be doing Etta James one minute. Ella Fitzgerald. Never fails. Someone will say, hey, do you know Freebird? No, I don't. But yeah, I've been doing jazz and blues. I got my start at the Cumberland County Playhouse when I was 15 professionally and I've done a little bit of touring. You know, it was a regional theater.

[Kai Rysdal]

So you're a lifer here.

[Neela Richardson]

I sort of. I moved here when I was 12 and then I left and then I came back and then I left again and I've been back since 2013.

[Kai Rysdal]

Do you get by doing it? How do you? How do you get by?

[Neela Richardson]

Okay, so before 2020, I was on the road a lot to stay relevant and to keep money flowing. And 2020, you know, if you're a musician, you lost your job. I learned how to do a lot of streaming and it kind of helped maidens meet. That same year, I also decided to go back to grad school.

[Kai Rysdal]

Now Melissa makes a living with a bunch of part time jobs. She still performs occasionally. Her jazz music is especially popular with those higher income retirees over in Fairfield Glade.

[Neela Richardson]

They are my people. They are my people. They really are.

[Kai Rysdal]

But she also teaches. She works for a couple of nonprofits and she's a session musician.

[Neela Richardson]

People pay me to do background vocals or that kind of thing.

[Melissa Ellis]

What's it like raising kids here?

[Neela Richardson]

My older two are already graduated. If they ever got into any trouble, I knew about it. This town is so small. I mean, I know everybody. And if I don't know everybody, I'm going to. But it's a small town.

[Kai Rysdal]

That small town, as we said, is getting bigger. The county's population has grown 6% since April of 2020. And not all the locals are happy about that.

[Neela Richardson]

They don't want to see it get big. They don't want to now. There's some of us that do. It creates jobs. It makes our lives easier to take care of our kids. I mean, that's probably the hardest part, raising kids here is there's really no income. I mean, we're tight.

[Kai Rysdal]

Say more.

[Neela Richardson]

Okay. So my husband and I are both. We both hold a master's degree, but he doesn't make a lot what he does for a living. He works in packaging International, you know, Packaging, you know, and whereas most people that do that in his field and in his position make over, you know, six figures. He makes a little over 50.

[Kai Rysdal]

And so because he's here in Crossville.

[Neela Richardson]

Well, I think a lot of it has to do with because he's here in Crossville because, you know, they chose Crossville because it's an affordable overhead. He's the director of sales of the North American branch. And it sounds really impressive until you realize that, you know, he gets paid once a month. And we have to just be very careful how we spend throughout the month. Now, I have jobs that will fill out the holes throughout the rest of the month. But I remember for a while there, if we made it to the end of the month with just like a little bit left in our account, I mean, we were like, woo, up top, boy. We made it with 20 bucks in our account. You know, we did it. But, you know, we pay our bills the beginning of the month, and then we have to watch what we do for the rest of the month. And, you know, lately, you know, we have grocery prices that are way high. You know, our cars break down. I had to buy a new car this last month. And it's like, now some of our budget's going to this. And I have two kids in college and two kids still growing up. It's tight.

[Kai Rysdal]

Stressful.

[Neela Richardson]

Yes, it is. It can be very stressful. But at the same time, I look at. There are a lot of people around here that have it far worse than we do. And we have. We have a roof over our heads. Granted, there's some leaks that we've had to have fixed. I got to patch that.

[Kai Rysdal]

Melissa and her husband rent this house. Leak in the ceiling and all. And given that the median home price in Cumberland county has increased something like 70% since 2020, that's according to Redfin. She doesn't really think they're gonna be buying anytime soon.

[Neela Richardson]

It's crazy. So. And you know, and I think it's gonna start balancing out, but it's never gonna be what it was.

[Melissa Ellis]

I have another question. So you. You spend some time with the Fairfield residents. Yeah. Entertaining and talking to them. Have you ever thought about what retirement would look like for you?

[Neela Richardson]

Ok. I have a legitimate fear that I will never get to retire and I will have to work until I'm dead. But my husband and I have always kind of dreamed that what we would like to do. He's always kind of wanted to have a coffee shop, a cafe. And we talked about expatriating someday and living in Europe and having a small cafe, maybe a little jazz corner, bring in jazz artists. But that's how I imagine I'm going to be. But I don't think I'm going to get to do that. I don't know what it's going to look like at this point. I don't think there's going to be a retirement.

[Kai Rysdal]

The change that's happening in Cumberland county, the number of working age people getting more and more outnumbered is going to create opportunities and challenges for policymakers, businesses and you in the decades to come because age and this economy are coming for us all. On the program tomorrow, A place where Fairfield and Crossville intersection. No final today. Too much goodness from Tennessee. More of that coming tomorrow. By the way, our daily production team includes Andy Corbin, Iru Ekbnobi, Nicholas Guillong, Maria Hollenhorst, Sarah Leeson, Sean McHenry and Sophia Terenzio. I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow. Everybody. This is APM.