Do you buy the retail sales number?

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Summary: "Do You Buy the Retail Sales Number?" Release Date: February 15, 2025

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Introduction

In the February 15, 2025 episode of Marketplace, host Kai Ryssdal delves into the complexities of the current economic landscape, focusing primarily on retail sales figures, consumer sentiment, the implications of potential tariff changes, and their broader impact on both the retail sector and international trade. The episode features insightful discussions with Rachel Siegel from the Washington Post and Jordan Holman from the New York Times, alongside segments from Marketplace's team members exploring related economic themes.

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Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

Discussion with Rachel Siegel and Jordan Holman

Kai Ryssdal opens the episode by addressing a recent downturn in retail sales, noting that consumer sentiment appears subdued in the current economic climate.

Jordan Holman (00:32):
"Retail sales were down, but the analysts and economists I talked to today were like, it is not a concern right now. Like January is always down." (02:32)

Holman explains that the dip in retail sales is typical for January, often influenced by seasonal factors such as the Chinese New Year shutdowns and weather-related disruptions like California wildfires and frigid temperatures. He emphasizes that while the current report shows a slight decline, it doesn't necessarily indicate a long-term problem unless there's a sustained decrease in consumer spending or rising prices that erode consumer confidence.

Rachel Siegel (06:20):
"We made it five minutes without saying the word uncertainty... policies themselves are still unclear, or they could change in this direction or that direction." (06:20)

Siegel highlights the persistent uncertainty surrounding economic policies, particularly the potential implementation of reciprocal tariffs proposed by President Trump. She notes that the lack of clarity and the evolving nature of these policies contribute to economic unpredictability, which can have ripple effects across the job market and overall economic growth.

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Tariffs and Their Implications

Exploring Reciprocal Tariffs

Kai steers the conversation towards the topic of tariffs, specifically differentiating between the existing 10-25% tariffs and the proposed reciprocal tariffs.

Rachel Siegel (03:39):
"Reciprocal tariffs are this latest wave of, as you said, the kind of trade approach that Trump has been taking... to balance those out and sort of reciprocate in that way." (03:39)

Siegel explains that reciprocal tariffs aim to create a more balanced trading relationship by matching the tariff rates imposed by other countries on U.S. goods. This approach differs from previous tariffs that targeted specific countries or products. The memorandum released by the administration indicates a broad strategy to ensure a level playing field, although the exact details and implementation timelines remain uncertain.

Impact on Retailers

Turning to how retailers are preparing for these potential tariffs, Kai engages Jordan Holman in the discussion.

Jordan Holman (04:56):
"Some people were pulling for orders... everyone was trying to race to get more things... stockpiling actually works." (04:56)

Holman observes that retailers are taking proactive measures such as pulling forward orders and attempting to stockpile inventory in anticipation of tariff increases. However, he notes complications like the recent Chinese New Year shutdowns, which have already caused supply chain disruptions. Retailers are also seeking to negotiate better terms with vendors to mitigate the impact of rising costs, though the unpredictability of reciprocal tariffs makes long-term planning challenging.

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Inflation Concerns and Economic Uncertainty

The conversation shifts to the broader implications of tariffs on inflation and economic growth.

Rachel Siegel (07:03):
"The numbers this week showed inflation was a little bit hotter than we expected... tremendous ripple effects through the entire job market." (07:03)

Siegel underscores that higher inflation rates can strain consumer spending power and complicate the economic recovery. With the administration making significant cuts to the federal workforce, the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policies adds another layer of complexity to forecasting the economic outlook.

Jordan Holman (07:31):
"Consumers look again at prices that are not going down as fast... uncertainty again, of not knowing if people can spend as much as was anticipated." (07:31)

Holman highlights that persistent inflation hampers consumer confidence, making it difficult for businesses to predict spending patterns. This uncertainty may lead to reduced consumer expenditure, further impacting the retail sector and overall economic stability.

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Analyzing Retail Sales Data

Insights from Kimberly Adams

Marketplace's own reporter, Kimberly Adams, provides a deeper analysis of the retail sales data to contextualize the headline numbers.

Kimberly Adams (09:46):
"Tracking retail sales is a way to measure consumer demand in this economy... it can obscure a lot of nuance." (09:46)

Adams explains that while the total retail sales figure for January stood at approximately $724 billion, this number can be misleading without considering the underlying components. By isolating "core retail sales," which exclude volatile categories like automobiles and gasoline, a more accurate picture of consumer behavior emerges.

Bee Cham (11:16):
"If you stripped out autos, then the decline was actually a little bit less... down 0.4% versus down 0.9%." (11:16)

Cham from S&P Global Ratings illustrates how adjusting the data inputs changes the interpretation of retail performance. Removing autos from the equation shows a less severe decline, suggesting that certain sectors are performing better than others amidst overall economic challenges.

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My Economy: CCB Bistro & Vine

Feature on a Dual-Role Business

In the "My Economy" segment, listeners are introduced to Shonali Thomas and Mindy Kuhn, owners of CCB Bistro & Vine in Rock Hill, South Carolina, who successfully blend retail and service in their business model.

Shonali Thomas (12:32):
"We just kind of hit it off and ended up doing my cookbook which came out fabulous." (12:32)

Thomas and Kuhn share their journey of merging a restaurant with a retail bookstore, creating a space where customers can dine and shop simultaneously. This innovative approach highlights the evolving nature of consumer preferences and the importance of adaptability in the retail and service industries.

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US-Canada Trade Relations and Tariff Threats

Impact on Detroit-Windsor Corridor

The episode delves into the potential effects of Trump's tariff threats on the US-Canada border, particularly focusing on the economically intertwined Detroit-Windsor corridor.

Bee Cham (19:15):
"Thousands of people on either side of the river have family and friends in the other country... cultural touch points, from sports to food." (19:15)

Cham emphasizes the deep economic and cultural ties between Detroit and Windsor, highlighting how tariffs could disrupt not only trade flows but also personal and professional relationships across the border.

Sandy Barua (20:30):
"Canada is our dear friend, both culturally and economically... outrage is deserved." (20:30)

Barua from the Detroit Regional Chamber echoes the frustration felt by many Michiganders, underscoring that the majority view Canada as an economic partner and are concerned that tariffs could harm this vital relationship.

Drew Dillkins (21:25):
"Detroit and Windsor will remain close no matter what... if a trade war breaks out, these cities will be on the front line." (21:25)

Mayor Drew Dillkins of Windsor reflects on the inseparable nature of Detroit and Windsor, acknowledging that any trade war would place these cities at the epicenter of economic conflict, potentially impacting the auto industry and broader regional economies.

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The Rise of Meat Sticks in Consumer Spending

Jennifer Williams Explores a Growing Snack Trend

In a lighter yet insightful segment, journalist Jennifer Williams from the Wall Street Journal discusses the burgeoning market for meat sticks, a category that has seen significant growth in recent years.

Jennifer Williams (23:43):
"People love their meat sticks... some just really think it's healthier than say a bag of potato chips." (23:43)

Williams highlights that meat sticks have become the fastest-growing snack category, with sales reaching $3.3 billion last year—a 10.4% increase. The segment explores various consumer motivations, from health-conscious choices to the convenience offered by meat sticks compared to traditional snacks.

Jennifer Williams (24:11):
"Some mass-produced options shouldn't be called a meat stick. They should be called a snack stick because who knows whether it's meat or not." (24:11)

She also touches upon the debate surrounding the authenticity and labeling of meat sticks, reflecting broader discussions on food quality and consumer transparency.

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IRS Workforce Reductions Amid Economic Shifts

Elon Musk and IRS Layoffs

Towards the end of the episode, Kai Ryssdal touches on a report from the Washington Post regarding significant layoffs within the Internal Revenue Service.

Bee Cham (17:21):
"Elon Musk's operatives have begun meeting with high-ranking officials at the IRS... 9,000 layoffs, mostly in the tax collection division." (22:07)

Cham reports that approximately 10% of the IRS workforce is facing layoffs, primarily in the tax collection division. This move raises concerns about the agency's capacity to manage tax collection effectively, especially in the context of potential changes to fiscal policies and increased economic uncertainty.

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Conclusion

The episode of Marketplace provides a comprehensive analysis of the current economic climate, emphasizing the nuanced nature of retail sales data, the far-reaching implications of potential tariff changes, and the adaptive strategies businesses are employing to navigate these challenges. Through expert insights and diverse segments, listeners gain a deeper understanding of how interconnected economic factors influence both national and local markets.

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Notable Quotes:

• Jordan Holman (02:32): "Retail sales were down, but the analysts and economists I talked to today were like, it is not a concern right now. Like January is always down."

• Rachel Siegel (06:20): "We made it five minutes without saying the word uncertainty... policies themselves are still unclear."

• Bee Cham (19:15): "Thousands of people on either side of the river have family and friends in the other country."

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Timestamp Highlights:

• 02:32 - Jordan Holman discusses the typical January dip in retail sales.
• 03:39 - Rachel Siegel explains the concept of reciprocal tariffs.
• 07:03 - Rachel Siegel addresses the impact of rising inflation rates.
• 09:46 - Kimberly Adams analyzes the nuances in retail sales data.
• 12:32 - Introduction to CCB Bistro & Vine's dual business model.
• 19:15 - Exploration of US-Canada economic ties and tariff threats.
• 23:43 - Jennifer Williams highlights the growth of the meat stick market.
• 22:07 - Report on IRS workforce reductions.

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This summary aims to provide a thorough overview of the "Do You Buy the Retail Sales Number?" episode of Marketplace, encapsulating the essential discussions and insights shared by the hosts and guests.

Transcript

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[McCormick]

Years, McCormick has helped you make mom's lasagna to keep her secret recipe alive. Take over taco night no matter how chaotic your day is. Conquer the bake sale, even if you get to it last minute. And craft the perfect Sunday brunch when it's not even Sunday. Because with McCormick by your side, it's gonna be great.

[Kai Rysdal]

Your discussion prompt Today, this economy, this week, what happened and why? You have six minutes. Ready?

[McCormick]

Go.

[Kai Rysdal]

From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kyle Rysdal. It is Friday today, the 14th of February. Good as always to have you along, everybody. It has been a week in this economy, inflation, of course, retail today and you know, all the rest. Rachel Siegel is at the Washington Post. Jordan Holman is at the New York Times. Hey you two.

[Rachel Siegel]

Hi Kai.

[Jordan Holman]

Hey, Kai.

[Kai Rysdal]

Jordan, I would like to begin with you and the topic of retail sales. And I would like to point out that those sales were down according to the information we got this morning. Also, consumer sentiment is not great in this economy. Here's what I want to know. What is your tell on consumers in this economy? What is the canary in the coal mine that you're looking for to say, you know what, this is turning into a problem?

[Jordan Holman]

Yeah. So retail sales were down, but the analysts and economists I talked to today were like, it is not a concern right now. Like January is always down. There was also, it was a noisy report. There was the fires in California. There was frigid temperatures, all this sorts of stuff. But I do think I am keeping an eye out for kind of people being fed up with shopping a little bit. Like if it's more so that the pullback is less of a, I spent everything in December, around Christmas, or more of a, like going forward, I'm just kind of concerned about what's happening or I think prices are going to be higher, which kind of gets to the sentiment thing. That would be a real concern. But it's hard to say that that is what this report is telling us.

[Kai Rysdal]

Hmm. All right. So, Rachel, I go to you and I go to the subject of most macroeconomic policy interest right now, the idea of tariffs, this thing that President Trump says he wants to do, which is reciprocal tariffs, which is different than the tariffs of 25 and 10% that he has talked about on various and sundry countries. Why are reciprocal tariffs different?

[Rachel Siegel]

Well, reciprocal tariffs are this latest wave of, as you said, the kind of trade approach that Trump has been taking. But the idea is basically to clap back, if I can say that, at the way tariffs are set by other countries. You know, if there is a rate that is set that is a little bit higher than what we have here, the idea is to balance those out and sort of, you know, reciprocate in that way. We don't exactly know what that looks like yet. They haven't been ordered into effect. But the message that we got in a memorandum this week is that Trump wants to explore what that looks like, have, you know, a lot of pen to paper to figure out what sort of calculations might be customized to specific countries. There might be a little bit of room for negotiation. They're not supposed to go into effect until a little bit later this spring. But the idea is basically to cover even more surface here. It's not just going to be about a specific country or a specific item, but to make sure that there is this more, in the president's view, even playing field for the way these rates are set.

[Kai Rysdal]

Right. So a couple of follow ups then. And Jordan, the first one goes to you. What are retailers doing to prepare for this? You have to call it a near certainty that this is going to happen unless he does some deal making, as sometimes happens. But are they pulling forward their orders? Are they getting ready? What's happening behind the scenes in retail for these tariffs?

[Jordan Holman]

Yeah, some people were pulling for orders. But one kind of wrinkle to all of this was, you know, a lot of production comes out of China, obviously, but it was Chinese New Year right before the tariffs went into place. So factory shut down for three weeks. So there was just a backup. And I've talked to, I've talked to some entrepreneurs that said, I have a Backlog. I try to prepare for this moment, but everyone was trying to race to get more things. So there's a question about if stockpiling actually works. I think they're also just trying to negotiate with their vendors to try to basically charge them or charge them more, so they're not charging customers more, passing on that cost to us. So they're trying to pull around different levers. But it's also a very difficult time to do that because we're seeing reciprocal tariffs, and then de minimis is being taken away. Things are changing every day, and that's a very not great place to be if you're someone trying to plan business.

[Kai Rysdal]

Rachel, with the, I guess it should be standard caveat here that tariffs are import taxes that are eventually paid by the American consumer. What is your, what is your, what is your level of economic peril that seems to be facing us? Because if we're paying more, then there's the inflation challenge. There is the growth challenge there. There are many things that happen if and when these tariffs happen.

[Rachel Siegel]

Yeah, so what? We made it five minutes without saying the word uncertainty. I think, I think we're back. And this is another dose of that, both because the specific policies themselves are still unclear, or they could change in this direction or that direction, or they could be even more than what we understand them to be now. And as you said, we got numbers this week that showed inflation was a little bit hotter than we expected. I think there's going to be tremendous ripple effects through the entire job market given what we're seeing with reductions in the federal workforce right now, and we're three weeks into the new administration. So it's hard to put a finger on exactly what the fiscal or macroeconomic impact will be because it has to be part of this larger pie that is also just changing by the minute.

[Kai Rysdal]

Yeah, we should, we should call those, you know, reductions in the federal workforce. I will certainly call those what they are, which is mass firing. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but they are mass firings. Jordan. Rachel talked about inflation, which we haven't yet mentioned this afternoon. It is sticky. It's bumpy. It's proving to be more persistent than Powell and the gang want. Discuss for me, would you, what degree of economic peril you think that poses now as consumers look again at prices that are not going down as fast.

[Jordan Holman]

As they might hope, they certainly don't like it. And I know I've talked to people in the retail space who are already like 2025 was supposed to breathe a sigh of relief. Okay, we got through some really bumpy higher prices and all these kind of things, and now we will get our consumers back and they'll be happy with us. Now they're looking at this. They're thinking about possible unemployment in certain areas like the DMV area and thinking, okay, well, do I have to change my whole business plan? Will people keep buying? And so it's really creating the situation of like that uncertainty word again, of not knowing if people can spend as much as was anticipated going into this year.

[Kai Rysdal]

DMV for those not in the east coast know, is Delaware, Maryland and Virginia sort of around the capital region. Rachel Spiegel, you got 30 seconds to answer this one. What is the thing you are looking for? That's going to be an economic tell for you about things maybe going sideways.

[Rachel Siegel]

Yeah. I think it's really the reach of these layoffs, buyouts, drastic cuts in the federal government because that's a lot of people's jobs. It's the kind of spending power that Jordan's talking about. It's livelihoods. It's the exact types of things that those services provide. And I think we're only just starting to get a picture of how drastic those are going to be.

[Kai Rysdal]

Rachel Siegel at the Washington Post and Jordan Holman at the New York Times on this Friday. Thanks, you two.

[Rachel Siegel]

Thank you.

[Jordan Holman]

Thanks.

[Kai Rysdal]

On Wall street today, traders kind of took it easy heading into the weekend. We'll have the details when we always have the details. Retail sales do usually drop in January, as Jordan said. But also, as usual, there is economic truth underneath the headline numbers. Seasonal swings plus snowstorms and wildfires mean a number that tells us how much people are shopping does not necessarily give us the full picture of how much people want to be shopping. Marketplace's Kimberly Adams did some digging.

[Kimberly Adams]

For us, tracking retail sales is a way to measure consumer demand in this economy. But the overall number, almost $724 billion in January, can obscure a lot of nuance since it's basically a tally of the value of goods and services sold. Erica Groschen is a former commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is now a senior economic advisor at Cornell.

[Brian McCarthy]

If what you're trying to look at is some measure of consumer confidence, you don't want the lumber that you're looking at to be driven by whether or not the harvest for avocados was good.

[Kimberly Adams]

So there are a few different breakdowns of the data in the census report isolating a control group, sometimes called core retail sales, that strips out some of the more volatile categories like automobiles, gasoline, building materials. Plus different groups and companies have their own versions of core retail sales depending on what view of the economy they're trying to get, says Brian McCarthy, retail strategy lead at Deloitte.

[Kai Rysdal]

So you could see one core group being your typical grocery soft, good hard goods and then another group being your grocery soft goods hard goods including gas and restaurants.

[Kimberly Adams]

And changing those inputs can make a big difference in the takeaway headline number. Bee Cham, a managing director at S and P Global Ratings, says, for example, in January's report, if you stripped out.

[Bee Cham]

Autos, then the decline was actually a.

[Kai Rysdal]

Little bit less to the overall retail sales number.

[Bee Cham]

So that was down 0.4% versus down.

[Kimberly Adams]

0.9% with everything in same data, same economy, just a slightly different view of it. In Washington, I'm Kimberly Adams for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

The spending habits of consumers in this economy can be divided broadly into two categories, goods and services. And more often than not we visit different businesses for each retailers for goods, restaurant salons, dentist offices, what have you for services. But what about a business that offers both goods and a service? Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy.

[Shonali Thomas]

I'm Shonali Thomas.

[Brian McCarthy]

And I'm Mindy Kuhn and we're the owners of CCB Bistro & Vine in Rock Hill, South Carolina. We both have two businesses. Shonali owns a catering gourmet foods business and I own a publishing company as well.

[Shonali Thomas]

We have a mutual friend who knows that I love to cook and she said you need to meet my friend who's a book publisher because you need to write another cook. And I said no and she said you should meet her anyways. And so I did. We just kind of hit it off and ended up doing my cookbook which came out fabulous.

[Brian McCarthy]

Part of my goal as a publishing company was to have a five year plan to open a retail component to sell our books amongst other books. And Shonali had the end goal of trying to do or wanting to do.

[Shonali Thomas]

A small bites charcuterie board and wine and keep it quaint and little boutique style. And here we are with a big old restaurant.

[Brian McCarthy]

When you walk into the restaurant, the books are around the edge. So there it's not even set aside that you have to go through a separate door. It is one space. Oftentimes people come in, they'll get drinks or food and then they'll shop for books.

[Shonali Thomas]

It's tough. Restaurant business is a roller coaster ride of up and down and there's always some reason as to why we think it's slow or why how did it get so busy or how did we get these people?

[Brian McCarthy]

Well, and it's exactly like that. The, the last latter part of the year we were kind of slow and had some slow moments. And then this year we've really started, knock on anything wood, we've started off with a good clip. We did decide to do more events this year. Our area is kind of a, I call it a two town, which if it's too hot or too cold or too rainy, then we tend to be slow. We have an amazing core group of regulars. But having the events will continue to kind of giving that underlie of at least you have that number of people who sign up for those events to be present for that particular night.

[Shonali Thomas]

We are both sort of control freaks, type A personality. And you would think that two people like that would butt heads. And actually we mesh really well together. We're a very good yin and yang. Yeah.

[Kai Rysdal]

Mindy Coon and Shonali Thomas, the owners of CCB Bistro & Vine in Rock Hill, South Carolina. This series simply will not work without you. So write to us, would you tell us your story. Marketplace.org My economy coming up, some love.

[Jennifer Williams]

The protein, some like the convenience.

[Kai Rysdal]

$3 billion worth of meat sticks. But first, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials down 165 today. 4, 10%. 44,546. The NASDAQ gained 81 points. 4, 10, 20,026. The S&P 500 gave back 44 points. Basically unchanged percentage wise, 61 and 14 for the week. The Dow grew 6. 10%. The NASDAQ up 2.6%. S&P 500 lifted about 1.5%. Airbnb exceeded expectations. The company said profits were fueled by a 10% year over year uptick in bookings and share buybacks. Shares upgraded themselves 14.5% today. It is Valentine's Day, actually. Valentine's Day. Let's see if I can get that right. Big deal for chocolate makers, right? Cocoa futures up 80% this year, ending today at $10,308.13 per metric ton. Hershey's melted down 1% today. Mondelez International down 6. 10%. Tootsie Roll Industries softened 1%. You are listening to Marketplace.

[McCormick]

For over 130 years, McCormick has helped you make mom's lasagna to keep her secret recipe alive. Take over taco night. No matter how chaotic your day is. Conquer the bake sale, even if you get to it last minute, and craft the perfect Sunday brunch when it's not even Sunday. Because with McCormick by your side, it's gonna be great.

[Bee Cham]

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[Kai Rysdal]

Hi, I'm Kai Rysdal, the host of How We Survive. This season is all about the institution that shaped me, the US Military, and how it could shape the future of climate tech. You've probably heard that 2024 was the hottest year on record, that wildfires devastated Los Angeles and that the US Withdrew from the Paris Agreement. And while all that might feel pretty terrible, the climate crisis is not an inevitable reality. From simulated climate emergencies to micro grids and sustainable aviation fuel, we look at how the military is investing part of its $850 billion budget in a greener, more resilient future. Listen to how we survive. Wherever you get your podcasts, this is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. The border between the United States and Canada is, as it stands now, the longest undefended border in the world. It's also one of the most economically intensive. Last year, almost $800 billion worth of stuff crossed between the two countries, and about a quarter of that went over a bridge between Windsor, Ontario and Detroit, Michigan. So if you're looking for a place where the looming 25% Trump tariffs and whatever Canada decides to do in return, if you're looking for a place where that's going to be felt the most, look no further. Michigan Public's Laura Weber Davis has that one.

[Bee Cham]

The city skylines of Detroit and Windsor face each other across the Detroit River. Folks on the Canadian side grew up listening to Motown and root for the Detroit Lions. Southeast Michiganders grew up watching Canadian Kids Television and know the lyrics to O Canada. The typography is more or less the same. I mean, the architecture isn't that different. There's just a sense of home. Travis Wright works in advertising in Metro Detroit. He moved here as a kid, but he was born in Ontario. I met him at the Detroit Riverfront. He comes here a lot to just absorb his two homelands. As much as I am Americanized and even Became a citizen. Like, I'm, I'm Canadian to the bone. Thousands of people on either side of the river have family and friends in the other country. They cross the border for work every day or own property on the other side of the bridge. There's a lot of cultural touch points, from sports to food. We're always going to be connected. So many people here feel this way about Windsor and Detroit.

[McCormick]

You know, we're brothers from another mother.

[Bee Cham]

This is Sandy Barua. He's the head of the Detroit Regional Chamber. He says he hears the outrage coming from Canadians over President Trump's tariff threats.

[McCormick]

Which, frankly, I think outrage is deserved. Canada is our dear friend, both culturally and economically.

[Bee Cham]

The Detroit Regional Chamber recently polled Michigan voters and found 68% of Michiganders view Canada as an economic friend. And the majority also view tariffs as detrimental to that relationship.

[McCormick]

68% for anything. I mean, even apple pie. Motherhood. And Chevrolet is a odd development these days. So to have 68% of Michiganders agree on this point is a big deal.

[Bee Cham]

The key driver of the relationship here is the auto industry. It's estimated that every vehicle that comes off the line here passes over the international crossing seven or eight times. Maybe more parts built on one side cross over for installation and then back for more parts, ping ponging until the car is built.

[Kai Rysdal]

And so from an economic perspective, we're integrated very tightly.

[Bee Cham]

Windsor Mayor Drew Dillkins looks at downtown Detroit from his City hall office every day. He went to university in Detroit and spent some of his professional life there.

[Kai Rysdal]

And so Detroit for me and for my family has just been an extension of my backyard.

[Bee Cham]

But Dilkens is now considering what economic levers he has to pull if President Trump's broad tariffs go into effect, maybe even canceling municipal bus service between the two cities. And he says something else is happening at the street level. Canadians are beginning to shy away from buying any U. S Made products because they feel burned.

[Kai Rysdal]

Let me make no bones about this, this economic threat. It hurts the thought that there's going to be an economic assault by the United States on Canada. I mean, shaking our heads saying, how did we get here? How did this ever happen? The US Is sort of picking on their closest neighbor, largest trading partner and what I would argue to be best friend. But clearly friendship doesn't mean anything.

[Bee Cham]

Dilkins says Detroit and Windsor will remain close no matter what. But if a trade war breaks out, these cities will be on the front line. In Detroit, I'm Laura Weber Davis for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

Here's another retail tidbit Sales at grocery stores were up 5.2% over a year ago. And within your usual grocery store purchases, the fruits and the veggies, meats and milk and all the other staples, there's an item in the snack aisle or sometimes actually right at the register that's gotten a lot more popular of late, to the tune of $3.3 billion last year. Popular flavors of this packaged snack include dill, pickle, taco and teriyaki. Any guesses? And if you said potato chips, no meat sticks. Jennifer Williams wrote about him in the Wall Street Journal the other day. Jennifer, welcome to the program.

[Jennifer Williams]

Thanks for having me.

[Kai Rysdal]

$3 billion worth of meat sticks in this country, Are you kidding me?

[Jennifer Williams]

People love, people love their meat sticks. Some love the protein, some like the convenience of that versus reaching into a bag for say, jerky. And some just really think it's healthier than say a bag of potato chips.

[Kai Rysdal]

Can you define meat stick for me, please?

[Jennifer Williams]

I can. And I think there's some debate even in what I'll say. I would say it's any meat offering packaged as a stick. It's in the name. But people I spoke with would say some mass produced options shouldn't be called a meat stick. They should be called a snack stick because who knows whether it's meat or not.

[Kai Rysdal]

Those who are familiar with meat sticks in the listening audience here will probably recognize Slim Jims. But my own, oh my, has this industry grown well beyond a Slim Jim.

[Jennifer Williams]

Yes, yes. The 3.29 billion in sales through the end of last year, that's up 10.4%. And it's the fastest growing category in snacks.

[Kai Rysdal]

I'm sorry, say that again. Fastest growing category in snacks is meat sticks.

[Jennifer Williams]

Fastest growing category in snacks. That's right.

[Kai Rysdal]

Wow. You know, I always, and maybe this, my kids probably will chime in here at some point after this interview airs. They would always say, dad, can I have a slim jam? Or dad, can I have whatever? And I'm like, nah, that's just salt and garbage and it's bad for you. But there are like grass fed versions and you know, stuff with fewer preservatives. I mean there are, there's a wide range of approaches here, shall we say?

[Jennifer Williams]

Yes, that's true. I think brands are realizing the opportunity here. And there are, as you pointed out, there's sugar free options and ones that claim to use only grass fed meat. And I think for those who are eating a meat stick with health in mind, they're gravitating towards those. Some I don't Think care so much about what's on the label. They just like the convenience. And then there are those, you know, meat stick purists who would only buy from a butcher or make their own. I think is a whole interesting community.

[Kai Rysdal]

There's a whole bunch of words in those sentences. People who are meat stick purists and people who are using meat sticks with health in mind. I never thought I'd hear that all put together. You're reporting this story. Well, so first of all, actually, let me ask you. I flipped through your biography on the Journal site as I do when I talk to people you usually write about, like, you know, financial news and audits and pensions and corporate finance. Did you just see all these meat sticks in your local Piggly Wiggly and say there's a story there?

[Jennifer Williams]

No. So I cover conagra brands and usually read through their earnings. And shortly after their latest meat stick acquisition, they had some really fun commentary on the earnings call about sort of appealing to a more sophisticated meat stick eater. And so I thought there's prime ground there for a funnier story journalism in the happening.

[Kai Rysdal]

Okay, so you do this story. Did you try a bunch of meat sticks? And do you have a favorite?

[Jennifer Williams]

I did. I tried several. I would say I'm brand agnostic, but I do love a spicy flavor, whatever the brand may be.

[Kai Rysdal]

Fair enough. Jennifer Williams usually covers financial stuff. Meat sticks this time for the Journal. Thanks, Jennifer. Appreciate your time.

[Jennifer Williams]

Thanks for having me.

[Kai Rysdal]

There's final note on the way out today in which it will be stipulated that while nobody likes paying taxes, if we are going to have federal taxes, we are going to have to have somebody to collect them. Or perhaps not. The Washington Post reports today that Elon Musk's operatives have begun meeting with high ranking officials at the Internal Revenue Service. 9,000, 9,000 layoffs is the figure the Post is reporting mostly in the tax collection division. That 9,000 is about 10% of the overall IRS workforce. It is necessary for me to say here out of an abundance of caution and as a disclaimer that as far as I know, taxes are still going to be due on April 15th. Our theme music was composed by BJ Lederman. Marketplace's executive producer is Nancy Fargali. Donna Tam is the executive editor. Neil Scarborough is the vice president and general manager. I'm Kai Rysdal. Have yourselves a great weekend, everybody. We will be back here on Monday. All right, this is apm. This economy can be complicated. That's why the Marketplace newsletter makes understanding it all simple. Get smart takes on the week's biggest stories delivered to your inbox every Friday. No jargon, no hype, just economics you can use. Sign up [e-mail] subscribe.