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Kai Rysdal
Hello, listeners. Our goal at Marketplace is to raise the economic intelligence of the country. And that goes for teens and young adults, too. The newest season of Financially Inclined, hosted by Yaneli Espinal, tackles topics like how to align your values with your money decisions, the skill of negotiating, and what you can get out of internships. Financially Inclined is presented in partnership with Greenlight, the debit card and money app for teens. Greenlight helps teens learn to earn, save, spend wisely and invest. Tune in to Financially Inclined wherever you find your podcasts.
Jennifer Williams
Life sustains itself by cell division. So does cancer. Breast cancer cells multiply faster because of CDK46 proteins. But what if we could block those proteins and stop runaway cell division? To that end, Dana Farber scientists laid the foundation for CDK46 inhibitors, new drugs that are increasing the survival rate for many advanced breast cancers. Dana Farber's momentum of discovery keeps finding new ways to outmaneuver cancer. Learn more@danafarber.org everywhere.
Rachel Siegel
Your discussion prompt Today, this economy, this week, what happened and why? You have six minutes. Ready? Go. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kyle Rysdal. It is Friday today, the 14th of February. Good as always to have you along, everybody. It has been a week in this economy. Inflation, of course, retail today and you know, all the rest. Rachel Siegel is at the Washington Post. Jordan Holman is at the New York Times. Hey, you two.
Jordan Holman
Hi, Kai.
Kai Rysdal
Hey, Kai.
Rachel Siegel
Jordan, I would like to begin with you and the topic of retail sales. And I would like to point out that those sales were down according to the information we got this morning. Also, consumer sentiment is not great in this economy. Here's what I want to know. What is your tell on consumers in this economy? What is the canary in the coal mine that you're looking for to say, you know what, this is turning into a problem?
Kai Rysdal
Yeah. So retail sales were down, but I, the analysts and economists I talked to today were like, it is not a concern right now. Like, January is always down. There was also, it was a noisy report. There was the fires in California. There was frigid temperatures, all just sorts of stuff. But I do think I am keeping an eye out for kind of people being fed up with shopping a little bit. Like if it's more so that the pullback is less of a, I spent everything in December around Christmas or more of a, like going forward, I'm just kind of concerned about what's happening or I think prices are going to be higher, which kind of gets to the sentiment thing that would be a real concern. But it's hard to say that that is what this report is telling us.
Rachel Siegel
Hmm. All right. So, Rachel, I go to you and I go to the subject of most macroeconomic policy interest right now. The idea of tariffs, this thing that President Trump says he wants to do, which is reciprocal tariffs, which is different than the tariffs of 25 and 10% that he has talked about on various and sundry countries. Why are reciprocal tariffs different?
Jordan Holman
Well, reciprocal tariffs are this latest wave of, as you said, the kind of trade approach that Trump has been taking. But the idea is basically to clap back, if I can say that, at the way tariffs are set by other countries. You know, if there is a rate that is set that is a little bit higher than what we have here, the idea is to balance those out and sort of, you know, reciprocate in that way. We don't exactly know what that looks like yet. They haven't been ordered into effect. But the message that we got in a memorandum this week is that Trump wants to explore what that looks like, have, you know, a lot of pen to paper to figure out what sort of calculations might be customized to specific countries. There might be a little bit of room for negotiation. They're not supposed to go into effect until a little bit later this spring. But the idea is basically to cover even more surface here. It's not just going to be about a specific country or a specific item, but to make sure that there is this more, in the president's view, even playing field for the way these rates are set.
Rachel Siegel
Right. So a couple of follow ups then. And Jordan, the first one goes to you. What are retailers doing to prepare for this? You have to call it a near certainty that this is going to happen unless he does some deal making, as sometimes happens. But are they pulling forward their orders? Are they getting ready? What's happening behind the scenes in retail for these tax tariffs?
Kai Rysdal
Yeah, some people were pulling for orders. But one kind of wrinkle to all of this was, you know, a lot of production comes out of China, obviously, but it was Chinese New Year right before the tariffs went into place. So factory shut down for three weeks. So there was just a backup. And I've talked to, I've talked to some entrepreneurs that said I have a backlog. I try to prepare for this moment. But everyone was trying to race to get more things. So there's a question about if stockpiling actually works. I think they're also just trying to negotiate with their vendors to try to basically charge them or Charge them more. So they're not charging customers more, passing on that cost to us. So they're trying to pull around different levers. But it's also a very difficult time to do that because we're seeing reciprocal tariffs, and then de minimis is being taken away. Things are changing every day. And that's a very not great place to be if you're someone trying to plan business.
Rachel Siegel
Rachel, with the. I guess it should be standard caveat here that tariffs are import taxes that are eventually paid by the American consumer. What is your level of economic peril that seems to be facing us? Because if we're paying more, then there's the inflation challenge. There is the growth challenge. There are many things that happen if and when these tariffs happen.
Jordan Holman
Yeah, so what? We made it five minutes without saying the word uncertainty. I think, I think we're back. And, you know, this is another dose of that, both because the specific policies themselves are still unclear, or they could change in this direction or that direction, or they could be even more than what we understand them to be now. And as you said, we got numbers this week that showed inflation was a little bit hotter than we expected. I think there's going to be tremendous ripple effects through the entire job market given what we're seeing with reductions in the federal workforce right now. And we're three weeks into the new administration. So it's hard to put a finger on exactly what the fiscal or macroeconomic impact will be because it has to be part of this larger pie that is also just changing by the minute.
Rachel Siegel
Yeah, we should, we should call those, you know, reductions in the federal workforce. I will certainly call those what they are, which is mass firing. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but they are mass firings. Jordan. Rachel talked about inflation, which we haven't yet mentioned this afternoon. It is sticky. It's bumpy. It's proving to be more persistent than Powell and the gang want discuss for me, would you, what degree of economic peril you think that poses now as consumers look again at prices that are not going down as fast as they.
Kai Rysdal
Might hope, they certainly don't like it. And I know, I've talked to people in the retail space who are already like 2025 was supposed to breathe a sigh of relief. Okay. We got through some really bumpy higher prices and all these kind of things, and now we will get our consumers back and they'll be happy with us. Now they're looking at this. They're thinking about possible unemployment in certain areas, like the DMV area and thinking, okay, well, do I have to change my whole business plan? Will people keep buying? And so it's really creating the situation of like that uncertainty word again, of not knowing if people can spend as much as was anticipated going into this year.
Rachel Siegel
DMV for those not in the east coast know, is Delaware, Maryland and Virginia sort of around the capital region. Rachel Siegel, you got, you got 30 seconds to answer this. This one. What is the thing you are looking for? That's going to be an economic tell for you about things maybe going sideways?
Jordan Holman
Yeah, I, I think it's really the reach of these, you know, layoffs, buyouts, drastic cuts in the federal government because that's a lot of people's jobs. It's the kind of spending power that Jordan's talking about. It's, it's livelihoods. It's, you know, the exact types of things that those services provide. And I think we're only just starting to get a picture of how drastic those are going to be.
Rachel Siegel
Rachel Siegel at the Washington Post and Jordan Holman at the New York Times on this Friday. Thanks, you two.
Jordan Holman
Thank you.
Kai Rysdal
Thanks.
Rachel Siegel
On Wall street today, traders kind of took it easy heading into the weekend. We'll have the details when we always have the detail. Retail sales do usually drop in January, as Jordan said. But also, as usual, there is economic truth underneath the headline numbers. Seasonal swings plus snowstorms and wildfires mean a number that tells us how much people are shopping does not necessarily give us the full picture of how much people want to be shopping. Marketplace is Kimberly Adams did some digging.
Kimberly Adams
For us, tracking retail sales is a way to measure consumer demand in this economy. But the overall number, almost $724 billion in January, can obscure a lot of nuance since it's basically a tally of the value of goods and services sold. Erica Groschen is a former commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is now a senior economic advisor at Cornell.
Mindy Kuhn
If what you're trying to look at is some measure of consumer confidence, then you don't want the lumber that you're looking at to be driven by whether or not the harvest for avocados was good.
Kimberly Adams
So there are a few different breakdowns of the data in the census report isolating a control group, sometimes called core retail sales, that strips out some of the more volatile categories like automobiles, gasoline, building materials. Plus, different groups and companies have their own versions of core retail sales depending on what view of the economy they're trying to get, says Brian McCarthy, retail strategy lead at Deloitte So you could.
Rachel Siegel
See one core group being your typical grocery soft, good hard goods, and then another group being your grocery soft goods, hard goods, including gas and restaurants.
Kimberly Adams
And changing those inputs can make a big difference in the takeaway headline number. Bee Cham, a managing director at S and P Global Ratings, says, for example, in January's report, if you stripped out.
Jennifer Williams
Autos, then the decline was actually a little bit less to the overall retail sales number. So that was down 0.4% versus down.
Kimberly Adams
0.9% with everything in same data, same economy, just a slightly different view of it. In Washington, I'm Kimberly Adams for Marketplace.
Rachel Siegel
The spending habits of consumers in this economy can be divided broadly into two categories, goods and services. And more often than not, we visit different businesses for each retailers for goods, restaurant salons, dentist offices, what have you for services. But what about a business that offers both goods and a service? Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy.
Shonali Thomas
I'm Shonali Thomas.
Mindy Kuhn
And I'm Mindy Kuhn. And we're the owners of CCB Bistro & Vine in Rock Hill, South Carolina. We both have two businesses. Shonali owns a catering gourmet foods business and I own a publishing company as well.
Shonali Thomas
We have a mutual friend who knows that I love to cook. And she said, you need to meet my friend who's a book publisher because you need to write another cookbook. And I said no. And she said, you should meet her anyways. And so I did. We just kind of hit it off and ended up doing my cookbook, which came out fabulous.
Mindy Kuhn
Part of my goal as a publishing company was to have a five year plan to open a retail component to sell our books amongst other books. And Shonali had the end goal of trying to do or wanting to do.
Shonali Thomas
A small bites, charcuterie board and wine and keep it quaint and little boutique style. And here we are with a big old restaurant.
Mindy Kuhn
When you walk into the restaurant, the books are around the edge. So there it's not even set aside that you have to go through a separate door. It is one space. Oftentimes people come in, they'll get drinks or food and then they'll shop for books.
Shonali Thomas
It's tough. Restaurant business is a roller coaster ride of up and down. And there's always some reason as to why we think it's slow or why how did it get so busy or how did we get these people?
Mindy Kuhn
Well, and it's exactly like that. The last latter part of the year we were kind of slow and had some slow moments. And then this year we've really started, knock on anything wood, we've started off with a good clip. We did decide to do more events this year. Our area is kind of a, I call it a two town, which if it's too hot or too cold or too rainy, then we tend to be slow. We have an amazing core group of regulars. But having the events will continue to kind of giving that underlie of at least you have that number of people who sign up for those events to be present for that particular night.
Shonali Thomas
We are both sort of control freaks, type A personality. And you would think that two people like that would butt heads. And actually we mesh really well together. We're a very good yin and yang. Yeah.
Rachel Siegel
Mindy Kuhn and Shonali Thomas, the owners of CCB Bistro & Vine in Rock Hill, South Carolina. This series simply will not work without you. So write to us, would you tell us your story marketplace.org myeconomy coming up.
Yaneli Espinal
Some love the protein, some like the convenience.
Rachel Siegel
$3 billion worth of meat sticks. But first, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials down 165 today. 4, 10%, 44,546. The NASDAQ gained 81 points. 4, 10, 20,026. The S&P 500 gave back 44 points, basically unchanged percentage wise, 61 and 14 for the week. The Dow grew 6. 10%. The NASDAQ up 2.6%. S&P 500 lifted about one and a half percent. Airbnb exceeded expectations. The company said profits were fueled by a 10% year over year uptick in bookings and share buybacks. Shares upgraded themselves 14.5% today. It is Valentine's Day, actually, Valentine's Day. See if I can get that right. Big deal for chocolate makers, right? Cocoa futures up 80% this year, ending today at $10,308.13 per metric ton. Hershey's melted down 1% today. Mondelez International down 6. 10%. Tootsie Roll Industries softened 1%. You are listening to Marketplace.
Kai Rysdal
Foreign.
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Rachel Siegel
I'm Kai Rysdal. The border between the United States and Canada is, as it stands now, the longest undefended border in the world. It's also one of the most economically intensive. Last year, almost 800 billion doll worth of stuff crossed between the two countries, and about a quarter of that went over a bridge between Windsor, Ontario and Detroit, Michigan. So if you're looking for a place where the looming 25% Trump tariffs and whatever Canada decides to do in return, if you're looking for a place where that's going to be felt the most, look no further. Michigan Public's Laura Weber Davis has that one.
Jennifer Williams
The city skylines of Detroit and Windsor face each other across the Detroit River. Folks on the Canadian side grew up listening to Motown and Root for the Detroit Lions. Southeast Michiganders grew up watching Canadian Kids Television and know the lyrics to O Canada. The typography is more or less the same.
Rachel Siegel
I mean, the architecture isn't that different. There's just a sense of home.
Jennifer Williams
Travis Wright works in advertising in metro Detroit. He moved here as a kid, but he was born in Ontario. I met him at the Detroit riverfront. He comes here a lot to just absorb his two homelands. As much as I am Americanized and even became a citizen, like I'm Canadian to the bone. Thousands of people on either side of the river have family and friends in the other country. They cross the border for work every day or own property on the other side of the bridge. There's a lot of cultural touch points, from sports to food. We're always going to be connected. So many people here feel this way about Windsor and Detroit.
Rachel Siegel
You know, we're brothers from another mother.
Jennifer Williams
This is Sandy Barua. He's the head of the Detroit Regional Chamber. He says he hears the outrage coming from Canadians over President Trump's tariff threats.
Rachel Siegel
Which, frankly, I think outrage is deserved. Canada is our dear friend, both culturally and economically.
Jennifer Williams
The Detroit Regional Chamber recently polled Michigan voters and found 68% of Michiganders view Canada as an economic friend. And the majority also view tariffs as detrimental to that relationship.
Rachel Siegel
68% for anything. I mean, even apple pie. Motherhood and Chevrolet is a odd development these days. So to have 68% of Michiganders agree on this point is a big deal.
Jennifer Williams
The key driver of the relationship here is the auto industry. It's estimated that every vehicle that comes off the line here passes over the international crossing seven or eight times. Maybe more parts built on one side cross over for installation and then back for more parts, ping ponging until the car is built.
Rachel Siegel
And so from an economic perspective, we're integrated very tightly.
Jennifer Williams
Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkins looks at downtown Detroit from his City hall office every day. He went to university in Detroit and spent some of his professional life there.
Rachel Siegel
And so Detroit for me and for my family has just been an extension of my backyard.
Jennifer Williams
But Dilkins is now considering what economic levers he has to pull if President Trump's broad tariffs go into effect, maybe even canceling municipal bus service between the two cities. And he says something else is happening at the street level. Canadians are beginning to shy away from buying any U. S. Made products because they feel burned.
Rachel Siegel
Let me make no bones about this, this economic threat. It hurts the thought that there's going to be an economic assault by the United States on Canada. I mean, shaking our heads, saying, how did we get here? How did this ever happen? The US Is sort of picking on their closest neighbor, largest trading partner and what I would argue to be best friend. But clearly friendship doesn't mean anything.
Jennifer Williams
Dilkins Says Detroit and Windsor will remain close no matter what. But if a trade war breaks out, these cities will be on the front line. In Detroit, I'm Laura Weber Davis for Marketplace.
Rachel Siegel
Here's another retail tidbit. Sales at grocery stores were up 5.2% over a year ago. And within your usual grocery store purchases, the fruits and the veggies, meats and milk and all the other staples, there's an item in the snack aisle or sometimes actually right at the register that's gotten a lot more popular of late, to the tune of $3.3 billion last year. Popular flavors of this packaged snack include dill, pickle, taco and teriyaki. Any guesses? And if you said potato chips, no meat sticks. Jennifer Williams wrote about them in the Wall Street Journal the other day. Jennifer, welcome to the program.
Yaneli Espinal
Thanks for having me.
Rachel Siegel
$3 billion worth of meat sticks in this country, Are you kidding me?
Yaneli Espinal
People love, people love their meat sticks. Some love the protein, some like the convenience of that versus reaching into a bag for, say, jerky. And some just really think it's healthier than, say, a bag of potato chips.
Rachel Siegel
Can you define meat stick for me, please?
Yaneli Espinal
I can, and I think there's some debate even in what I'll say. I would say it's any meat offering packaged as a stick. It's in the name. But people I spoke with would say some mass produced options shouldn't be called a meat stick. They should be called a snack stick because who knows whether it's meat or not.
Rachel Siegel
Those who are familiar with meat sticks in the listening audience here will probably recognize Slim Jims. But my, oh my, has this industry grown well beyond a Slim Jim.
Yaneli Espinal
Yes, yes. The 3.29 billion in sales through the end of last year, that's up 10.4%. And it's the fastest growing category in snacks.
Rachel Siegel
I'm sorry, say that again. Fastest growing category in snacks is meat sticks.
Yaneli Espinal
Fastest growing category in snacks. That's right.
Rachel Siegel
Wow. You know, I always, and maybe this, my kids probably will chime in here at some point after this interview airs. They would always say, dad, can I have a Slim jam? Or dad, can I have whatever? And I'm like, nah, that's just salt and garbage and it's bad for you. But there are like grass fed versions and you know, stuff with fewer preservatives. I mean, there's a wide range of approaches here, shall we say?
Yaneli Espinal
Yes, that's true. I think brands are realizing the opportunity here. And there are, as you pointed out, there are sugar free options and ones that claim to use only grass fed meat. And I think for those who are eating a meat stick with health in mind, they're gravitating towards those. Some, I don't think care so much about what's on the label. They just like the convenience. And then there are those, you know, meat stick purists who would only buy from a butcher or make their own. I think there's a whole interesting community.
Rachel Siegel
There's a whole bunch of words in those sentences. People who are meat stick purists and people who are using meat sticks with health in mind. I never thought I'd hear that all put together. You're reporting this story. Well, so first of all, actually, let me ask you. I flipped through your biography on the Journal site as I do when I talk to people you usually write about, like, you know, financial news and audits and pensions and corporate finance. Did you just see all these meat sticks in your local Piggly Wiggly and say there's a story there?
Yaneli Espinal
No. So I cover conagra brands and usually read through their earnings. And shortly after their latest meat stick acquisition, they had some really fun commentary on the earnings call about sort of appealing to a more sophisticated meat stick eater. And so I thought there's prime ground there for a funnier story journalism in the happening.
Rachel Siegel
Okay, so you do this story. Did you try a bunch of meat sticks? And do you have a favorite? Favorite?
Yaneli Espinal
I did. I tried several. I would say I'm brand agnostic, but I do love a spicy flavor, whatever the brand may be.
Rachel Siegel
Fair enough. Jennifer Williams usually covers financial stuff. Meat sticks this time for the Journal. Thanks, Jennifer. Appreciate your time.
Yaneli Espinal
Thanks for having me.
Rachel Siegel
There's final note on the way out today in which it will be stipulated that while nobody likes paying taxes, if we are going to have federal taxes, we are going to have to have somebody to collect them. Or perhaps not. The Washington Post reports today that Elon Musk's operatives have begun meeting with high ranking officials at the Internal Revenue Service. 9000 layoffs is the figure. The Post is reporting mostly in the tax collection division. That 9,000 is about 10% of the overall IRS workforce. It is necessary for me to say here out of an abundance of caution and as a disclaimer that as far as I know, taxes are still going to be due on April 15th. Our theme music was composed by BJ Lederman. Marketplace's executive producer is Nancy Fargoli. Donna Tam is the executive editor. Neil Scarborough is the vice president and general manager. I'm Kai Rysdal. Have yourselves a great weekend, everybody. We will be back here on Monday. All right, this is APM.
Kai Rysdal
Consumer confidence had its sharpest monthly decline since 2021, which means we're all in our feels about money. And while uncertainty is the only constant these days, it's also a great reason to get serious about understanding personal finance.
Yaneli Espinal
Finance.
Kai Rysdal
I'm Janelia Espinal, host of Financially Inclined, a podcast from Marketplace that makes learning about money simple. Learn about practical skills like negotiating job offers, dealing with money and friendship and love, entrepreneurship and student loans. Get serious about your money and build a life you've always dreamed of. Listen to Financially Inclined wherever you get your podcasts.
Marketplace Episode Summary: "Do You Buy the Retail Sales Number?"
Release Date: February 15, 2025
Host: Kai Ryssdal
In today’s episode of Marketplace, host Kai Ryssdal delves into the intricacies of the latest retail sales numbers and explores their significance in the current economic landscape. The discussion centers around whether consumers and businesses should place trust in these numbers amidst various influencing factors such as weather disruptions, tariff changes, and shifting consumer sentiments.
Retail Sales Overview: January's retail sales reported a decline, a trend that traditionally aligns with seasonal downturns. However, the numbers this year presented additional complexities.
Factors Influencing the Decline: The dip in sales was attributed to several non-economic factors:
Consumer Sentiment Concerns: While the immediate decline is not alarming, there are underlying worries about future consumer behavior.
Understanding Reciprocal Tariffs: President Trump's proposal of reciprocal tariffs marks a shift from previous tariff strategies, aiming to balance out imported tariffs imposed by other nations.
Retailers' Preparations: Businesses are bracing for potential impacts through various strategies:
Order Pulling: Some retailers accelerated orders before tariffs took effect.
Negotiations: Attempts to negotiate costs with suppliers to mitigate increased expenses.
Challenges Faced: The timing coincided with Chinese New Year, causing significant production delays and backlogs.
Kai Ryssdal (04:51): “Everyone was trying to race to get more things. So there's a question about if stockpiling actually works.”
Economic Peril and Inflation Risks: The introduction of reciprocal tariffs poses risks to consumer prices and overall economic growth.
Core Retail Sales Analysis: Jennifer Williams from the Wall Street Journal, through Kimberly Adams, highlights the importance of dissecting retail sales data beyond headline numbers to gauge true consumer confidence.
Adjusting for Volatility: By isolating core retail sales, which exclude volatile categories like automobiles and gasoline, analysts can better assess underlying consumer behavior.
In the “My Economy” segment, Shonali Thomas and Mindy Kuhn share their experience running CCB Bistro & Vine, a business that uniquely blends both goods and services by offering a restaurant experience alongside a bookstore.
Adaptation Strategies: The duo discusses how hosting events has stabilized their customer flow, especially in a region susceptible to weather-induced slowdowns.
Economic Integration Between Detroit and Windsor: The U.S.-Canada border, particularly between Detroit and Windsor, represents one of the world's most economically intensive and culturally intertwined regions.
Potential Effects of Tariff Implementation: Should reciprocal tariffs proceed, cities like Detroit and Windsor could face significant disruptions, especially in the automotive sector, which relies heavily on cross-border supply chains.
Local Reactions and Future Prospects: Local leaders express concern over the potential strain on economic and social ties, emphasizing the resilience of their cross-border relationship despite looming uncertainties.
Market Growth: Meat sticks have become the fastest-growing category in the snack industry, reaching $3 billion in sales last year.
Consumer Preferences: Variety in flavors and health-conscious options have fueled this growth, with consumers gravitating towards products that offer convenience and perceived health benefits.
Industry Response: Brands are expanding their offerings to include sugar-free, grass-fed, and preservative-free options to cater to diverse consumer preferences.
Layoffs in the IRS: The episode touches on reports of significant layoffs within the IRS, primarily affecting the tax collection division. Approximately 9,000 employees, or 10% of the workforce, are slated to be let go.
Implications for Tax Collection: These reductions could impact the efficiency of tax collection and enforcement, potentially leading to gaps in the system.
Kai Ryssdal wraps up the episode by emphasizing the importance of understanding personal finance amidst economic uncertainties and promotes the “Financially Inclined” podcast for listeners seeking to enhance their financial literacy.
Notable Quotes:
Kai Ryssdal (03:13): “I do think I am keeping an eye out for… concerns about what's happening or I think prices are going to be higher.”
Jordan Holman (06:15): “There's going to be tremendous ripple effects through the entire job market…”
Rachel Siegel (25:12): “Fastest growing category in snacks is meat sticks.”
Final Thoughts:
This episode of Marketplace offers a comprehensive analysis of the current retail sales numbers, the impact of potential reciprocal tariffs, and emerging trends in consumer behavior. By integrating expert insights and real-world business experiences, Kai Ryssdal provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the economic forces shaping today's marketplace.