A more equal nation?

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Summary
Episode: Processing...
Release Date: November 19, 2024
Host: Kai Ryssdal

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1. Currency Markets and the Strengthening US Dollar

Kai Ryssdal opens the episode by discussing the current state of the foreign exchange markets, highlighting the appreciation of the US dollar by approximately 3% since election day. This strengthening contrasts with President Elect Trump's promise to weaken the dollar to boost American exports.

Sabri Benishour explains, “[...] the US dollar has broadly appreciated because investors are seeking more dollars due to higher returns,” adding at [02:36], “Investors want dollars to get in on that [higher interest rates].”

Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, concurs, stating, “It's all about supply and demand of currencies” ([02:39]).

Key factors driving the dollar's strength include:

• Inflation Concerns: October inflation data was higher than expected ([02:54]).
• Federal Reserve Policies: Persistent inflation leads the Fed to maintain high interest rates, attracting investors ([02:59]).
• Relative Currency Weakness: Canadian economic slowdown and aggressive rate cuts have weakened the Canadian dollar, making the US dollar more attractive ([03:17]).

Eric Winograd, Chief Economist at Alliance Bernstein, notes, “Most of the policies that President Elect Trump has talked about are dollar positive” ([03:41]), indicating that despite Trump's intents, his policies may inadvertently support a stronger dollar.

Tariffs also play a role by reducing the need for foreign currencies, thereby boosting the dollar's value ([04:06]).

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2. Retail Sector and Holiday Spending Projections

As the holiday season approaches, Kristin Schwab examines early Black Friday discounts and upcoming earnings reports from major retailers like Target, Lowe's, Gap, and TJ Maxx.

Jessica Ramirez, an analyst at Jane Holly and Associates, remarks, “The deeper discounts could mean retailers are a bit anxious” ([06:08]), suggesting that significant markdowns may reflect retailer concerns about consumer spending.

Catherine Cullen at the National Retail Federation observes, “This mix shows how people are budgeting,” indicating that consumers are prioritizing essential purchases such as tech and beauty products while cutting back on non-essentials like home furnishings and dining out ([06:14]).

Despite cautious consumer behavior, Mari Shore from Columbia Threadneedle Investments anticipates a modest increase in holiday spending of 2.5% to 3.5%, aligning more closely with pre-pandemic levels ([07:00]).

Kelly Wells highlights Walmart's remarkable performance, with shares up nearly 60% year-to-date, positioning it for its best year since 1999. Dia Iyer from S&P Global attributes Walmart's success to:

1. Dominance in the grocery sector, making up roughly 60% of its business.
2. Enhanced delivery and curbside pickup services.
3. A robust digital presence that rivals Amazon, attracting both lower and higher-income households ([08:15]).

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3. US Economic Growth and Wealth Inequality

Kai Ryssdal presents data showing that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown nearly 13% over the past four years, adjusted for inflation, indicating a larger economic pie compared to 2020. However, the distribution of wealth remains uneven.

Paul Ashworth explains that from 2019 to 2022, total household wealth in the US grew by 25%, benefiting even the poorest 20% of households with an 83% growth in wealth ([10:52]). Anna Hernandez Kent from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis points out that this growth was driven by government aid programs rather than asset appreciation among low-income families ([11:09]).

Michael Strain from the American Enterprise Institute warns that with the cooling labor market, wage inequality may resurface as wage growth for low-skilled workers declines ([12:09]).

Bruce Meyer from the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy adds, “Inequality may also be throwing off the vibes,” suggesting that perceptions of inequality contribute to public dissatisfaction despite overall economic growth ([13:10]).

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4. Stock Market Overview

Kristin Schwabish provides a snapshot of the stock market:

• Dow Industrial: Down 55 points (-0.1%).
• NASDAQ: Up 111 points (+0.6%).
• S&P 500: Gained 23 points (+0.4%).

Notable movements include:

• Target: Up ~2.9%.
• Spirit Airlines: Down 5.6% following a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.
• Walmart: Slightly down by 0.2% despite strong year-to-date performance.
• Tech Giants: Nvidia slipped 1.3%, while Alphabet (Google's parent company) rose by 1.6%.

Shiraz Meehan from Zack's Investment Research notes that Nvidia and Google's partnership in quantum computing could signal future technological advancements, despite current stock fluctuations ([09:09]).

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5. Climate Change Impact on the Marshall Islands

A significant portion of the episode delves into the existential threat climate change poses to the Marshall Islands. Kai Ryssdal recounts his visit to Kwajalein Atoll, interviewing Hardin Lelan, the city manager, and Abon Arlong, a local disaster response specialist.

Hardin Lelan acknowledges the physical changes due to climate change, stating, “the islands are sinking” and noting the disappearance of some coral islands, leaving only beaches ([20:10]).

Abon Arlong expresses deep concern, highlighting rapid sea-level rise and the inadequacy of current US support: “We're already on a mass migration. There's more Marshallese in the states than in the Marshall Islands” ([26:43]).

The Compact of Free Association between the US and the Marshall Islands provides $2.3 billion over 20 years and allows Marshallese citizens to live and work in the US without a visa. However, Kai points out that the estimated cost to protect the islands is $35 billion, far exceeding current commitments.

Shiraz Meehan emphasizes resilience and community spirit, stating, “I think if there's a will, there's a way” ([23:16]), yet Abon Arlong remains skeptical about the US's commitment, referencing past nuclear testing and its lasting impacts ([27:00]).

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6. Credit Score Challenges for Consumers

In closing, Kai Ryssdal highlights a concerning trend from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: credit applications, especially for car loans and mortgage refinancing, have seen a higher rejection rate of 21% this year, up from 17.5% before the pandemic. For individuals with credit scores below 680, the likelihood of loan rejection is particularly high ([28:00]).

This trend underscores the growing importance of maintaining good credit scores in an increasingly competitive lending environment, affecting consumers' ability to make significant purchases and refinance existing debts.

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Conclusion

This episode of Marketplace provides a comprehensive look into the strengthening US dollar amidst global economic shifts, the resilience and challenges within the retail sector as the holiday season approaches, the complexities of economic growth juxtaposed with persistent wealth inequality, a brief overview of stock market movements, the dire impacts of climate change on vulnerable regions like the Marshall Islands, and emerging challenges in consumer credit access. Through expert insights and on-the-ground reporting, the episode paints a nuanced picture of the current economic and social landscape.

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Notable Quotes:

• Sabri Benishour at [02:36]: “Investors want dollars to get in on that [higher interest rates].”
• Jessica Ramirez at [06:08]: “The deeper discounts could mean retailers are a bit anxious.”
• Paul Ashworth at [10:52]: “Total household wealth grew 25%. And that rising tide really did lift all boats, including the poorest 20%.”
• Hardin Lelan at [20:10]: “The islands are sinking. [...] there's no trees, it just, just beaches.”
• Abon Arlong at [26:43]: “We're already on a mass migration. There's more Marshallese in the states than in the Marshall Islands.”
• Shiraz Meehan at [23:16]: “I think if there's a will, there's a way.”
• Kai Ryssdal at [28:00]: “Applications for all kinds of credit have been rejected this year at a rate higher than it's been in more than a decade.”

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This summary aims to provide a detailed and engaging overview of the Marketplace podcast episode, capturing all key discussions and insights while omitting advertisements and non-content segments.

Transcript

[Kai Rysdal]

This Marketplace podcast is supported by Justin Vineyards and Winery. Since 1981, Justin has been producing world class Bordeaux style wines from Paso Robles on California's Central coast. As the pioneer of Paso, Justin wines are what put Paso Robles on the winemaking map. With a rich history of accolades, Justin produces exceptional wines and is proud to be America's number one luxury Cabernet. Whether you're a first time wine drinker or a wine aficionado, Justin has a wine for every celebration and occasion. Looking for special wine to serve at your holiday table? Visit justinwine.com invest Puerto Rico supports this.

[Kristin Schwab]

Marketplace podcast what's next in innovation? That's not the right question. It's where Puerto Rico more than just a tropical paradise, it's innovation's paradise where startups and global players coexist in a vast and vibrant ecosystem where talent runs deep, highly skilled and bilingual. Plus, the island offers the most competitive tax incentives in the us if you believe your business can go anywhere, Puerto Rico is the place. Find out [e-mail] podcast a dollar is.

[Kai Rysdal]

A dollar, of course, until you want to exchange it for something else. From American public is Marketplace in Los Angeles, I'm Kai Rysdal. It is Monday today, the 18th of November. Good as always to have you along everybody on the foreign exchange markets. Today it went like this. One euro will cost you about $1.06, one British pound $1.27, one Chinese yuan about 14 cents. The specifics honestly aren't all that important. What you need to know about the currency markets is that the US dollar has, broadly speaking, appreciated about 3% since election day. That is to say, the dollar has gotten stronger, which is interesting because Presidents Elect Trump has promised to weaken the dollar as a way to make American exports more attractive, cheaper, that is for the world to buy. Thing is though, that the incoming administration policies might actually do the opposite as we're seeing of what Mr. Trump intends. Marketplace's Sabri Benishore gets us going the.

[Sabri Benishour]

Dollar is getting stronger because people here and around the world want more dollars. They're buying them and they want certain other currencies less. They're selling those.

[Paul Ashworth]

It's all about supply and demand of currencies.

[Sabri Benishour]

Paul Ashworth is chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. So why the interest in U.S. dollars? In general, it is because invest make more money with dollars and a few things are screaming that right now. One, and this might sound odd, is inflation.

[Kristin Schwab]

The October inflation data came in a.

[Paul Ashworth]

Bit stronger than we were expecting.

[Sabri Benishour]

What happens when inflation sticks around the Federal Reserve tries to fight it by keeping interest rates high. And what happens when interest rates are high? Investors make more money. So investors want dollars to get in on that. The other thing making dollars look good is that other currencies are looking less good.

[Paul Ashworth]

In Canada, their economy is slowing down a little more.

[Sabri Benishour]

Amarjeet Sahoda is executive director of Clarity fx.

[Kai Rysdal]

They've been confident in cutting interest rates.

[Paul Ashworth]

More aggressively, and that's weakened the Canadian dollar.

[Sabri Benishour]

So if your neighbor's grass is a little brown, yours looks a little greener. But one big thing making the dollar look good is the election result. Eric Winograd is chief economist at Alliance Bernstein.

[Kai Rysdal]

Most of the policies that President Elect Trump has talked about, at least in economic terms, are dollar positive.

[Sabri Benishour]

That is, of course, despite his desire to weaken the dollar. Trump's spending plans are expected to increase the deficit. The government will borrow more and pay more to do it. Investors want dollars to get in on that. And the other dollar growing item is tariffs. So what's the connection between tariffs in the dollar?

[Kai Rysdal]

If you impose tariffs, we will presumably import less.

[Sabri Benishour]

If we are importing fewer goods from foreign countries, we don't need as much currency from foreign countries to pay for those goods. Demand falls, those currencies weaken, and that.

[Kai Rysdal]

Means that the dollar should appreciate.

[Sabri Benishour]

As a result, markets are anticipating all of that. So the dollar has already started its upward move. In New York, I'm Sabri Benishour for.

[Kai Rysdal]

Marketplace Wall street today. Not a lot of dollars moving around, a little up, a little down. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. SA not for nothing, but we are 11 days out from Black Friday, the day, perhaps apocryphally, when retailers go into the black for the year. I mention that because a bunch of big retailers are going to be reporting earnings this week. Among them, Target, Lowe's, the Gap, and TJ Maxx. Those earnings calls could give us a preview of what's expected as we close on Black Friday. In the rest of the holiday shopping season, Marketplace's Kristin Schwab takes stock of where spending is headed and what it might say about how consumers are feeling.

[Kristin Schwab]

The winter holidays are here. Stores already put up decorations, they're blasting holiday music, and it isn't Thanksgiving yet. But many retailers are offering Black Friday discounts early. Especially last week, they started getting more 50% off a site wide, 60% off. Jessica Ramirez is an analyst at Jane Holly and Associates. She says usually you'd only see deals like 20 or 30% off. Right now. The deeper discounts could mean Retailers are a bit anxious. Deals are especially good if you're in the market for a winter coat.

Weather right now it's warm, so outerwear I'm concerned about.

Home furnishings isn't expected to be a strong category either, since not many people are buying homes. But as usual, tech will be popular. Same with beauty, an affordable luxury for all ages. Catherine Cullen at the National Retail Federation says this mix shows how people are budgeting. They're thinking about pulling back in other areas, maybe pulling back and dining out. They may be using some options like buy now, pay later. All in all, though, this year Colin expects holiday spending to increase two and a half to three and a half percent. It's a lot less than the nearly 12 and a half percent increase we saw in 2021, but it is closer to what we saw in 2019. Mari Shore is an analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

I don't know if I would specifically say we're back to 2019, but I feel like in a lot of ways when I look high level, we are back to all the same trends that we discussed before the pandemic.

In other words, a consumer who's careful with their wallet but is willing to open it up. I'm Kristin Schwab for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

Walmart is on that list of retailers reporting earnings this week, and expectations are that the world's biggest retailer is going to be sharing some good news. Ticker symbol WMT is up almost 60% year to date6.0%, which puts it on pace for its best year since 1999, when the company was building a bunch of new superstores and making a bigger name for itself in Canada and Mexico. This is Marketplace Kelly Wells today looking for the secrets of Walmart's success a quarter century on.

[Dia Iyer]

I found three the first one, says Dia Iyer with S&P Global. They're the largest grocer in America, Iyer says roughly 60% of Walmart's businesses groceries. It's improved its delivery and curbside pickup services and that's made it an attractive option.

[Kristin Schwab]

And I think that is a lot about their their own execution, actually.

[Kai Rysdal]

Not just sort of a natural need.

[Dia Iyer]

For cheaper groceries, although in this economy the price point is a plus too, says Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group.

[Kai Rysdal]

You know, the consumer has money to spend and has shown resiliency all year, but they've definitely focused on value and basics and getting food on the table.

[Dia Iyer]

And groceries help Walmart make other sales. Come for the onions, stay for the scarves and iPhone chargers.

[Kai Rysdal]

They're seeing the customer on a regular weekly basis. And so that is different from many others in retail that have fully discretionary assortments.

[Dia Iyer]

In other words, you're not going to buy toothpaste at Macy's. The final, not so secret secret to Walmart's success, a digital package of services.

[Shiraz Meehan]

That is a worthy rival to Amazon.

[Dia Iyer]

Shiraz Meehan is director of research at Zack's Investment Research. He says the site, the app, the annual membership, all that has brought in customers.

[Shiraz Meehan]

As the lower end of the income distribution has struggled, Walmart has been able to more than offset that by attracting higher income households.

[Dia Iyer]

Walmart's fourth quarter is likely to be strong too. Dia Iyer with S and P Global says the holiday season is shorter than usual this year, so more people will shop online. Good news for Walmart's growing e commerce business. I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

This is going to run counter to the perceived wisdom abroad in this country right now, but the data based fact of the matter is that American gross domestic product, the final value of all goods and services produced in this economy, is up nearly 13% over the past four years. And that is adjusted for inflation. So to put it another way, the US economic pie is bigger than it was in 2020. The question of course is how that pie is being divided and who is getting the biggest slices. Marketplace's Matt Levin has that one.

[Paul Ashworth]

Most Americans are a lot richer now than they were before COVID From 2019 to 2022, the last year good data is available, total household wealth grew 25%. And that rising tide really did lift all boats, including the poorest 20% of U.S. households.

[Kristin Schwab]

So they had in that three year period 83% growth. So almost doubling their wealth. It's something that we haven't seen as far back as the data goes.

[Paul Ashworth]

Anna Hernandez Kent is a senior researcher at the Federal Reserve bank of St. Louis. Wealth here is basically all the assets a household owns. A house, stocks and bonds, savings minus its debt, mortgages, student loans, credit cards. But it wasn't the fevered post pandemic housing market or Wall street that helped poor households, the vast majority of which don't own stocks or homes.

[Kristin Schwab]

Government aid programs like the stimulus checks and enhanced employment benefits, these things disproportionately.

[Dia Iyer]

Benefited lower income families.

[Paul Ashworth]

Wealth grew significantly among black and Hispanic households and never married women. But since some households had so little to begin with, seven grand or so in net worth for those in the bottom 20%, those big gains did not narrow the divide between rich and poor.

[Kristin Schwab]

The gap between the wealthy, the top 80% and the not wealthy, the poor. The bottom 20% has grown by about $200,000 between 2019 and 2022.

[Paul Ashworth]

Wealth, though, isn't the only way to measure equality. There's also the first step towards building wealth. Wages. Wage inequality generally declined the first few years after the pandemic. That red hot low skilled labor market meant low skilled wages grew faster than inflation. But Michael Strain with the American Enterprise Institute says that with today's cooling labor market, we probably will look back at 2024 and say, okay, the reductions in.

[Kai Rysdal]

Wage inequality kind of petered out.

[Paul Ashworth]

We've done lots of stories about how Americans are disenchanted with this economy despite all that growth in wages and wealth and a zillion other metrics. And yeah, part of that's inflation. But economist Bruce Meyer at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy says inequality may also be throwing off the vibes.

[Kai Rysdal]

A lot of people look to others for how they judge whether or not they're well off, even when things are getting better in terms of the level of expenditures people can afford at the bottom.

[Paul Ashworth]

Last year, those at the bottom 10th percentile of American household incomes made 19 grand a year. Those at the top 90th percentile made 235,000. I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.

[Shiraz Meehan]

Coming up, when you go there, you just see only beaches or sand. There's no trees. It's just beaches.

[Kai Rysdal]

Climate change does actually change stuff, you know. First though, let's do the numbers. Dow industrial is down 55 points today, about a tenth percent. The blue chips closed at 43,389. The NASDAQ picked up 111 points, rather six tenths percent finished at 18,791. The S&P 500 gained at 23 points. Four tenths percent, 58 and 93. Kristen Schwabish is telling us about some of the major retailers reporting before the holiday season. Target rang up 2, 9, 10% today. Gap subtracted three quarters of 1%. Lows built up about 9, 10%. Walmart down two tenths of 1% on the day. Spirit Airlines dropped 5.6% today. That's after the budget airline filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The carrier says it will continue to operate and will honor all existing tickets as it moves through that process. Delta, meanwhile, sank 1.3%. JetBlue shrank about 9.5% today. United dipped nine tenths percent. Chipmaker Nvidia and Google announced a physics partnership today in quantum computing. That is a super fast ish form of computing that far outpaces the speed of semiconductor based technology could still be years away from broad scale use. Nvidia slipped 1.3% the day Google's parent company Alphabet sped up about 1.6%. You're listening to Marketplace.

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[Kristin Schwab]

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[Kai Rysdal]

This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. You're all in 7:40 in the morning. That diesel rumble you might hear in the background is the ferrior on just pulling into ebay from Kwajalein. I talked a month or so ago on the program about a reporting trip I took this past summer to the Marshall Islands for our climate podcast, how we survive. There's a critical army missile test range out there in the Kwajalein atoll. To be precise, the main army garrison is on the island of Kwajalein. Almost all of the native Marshallese who work on the base, though that's a thousand or so people, live on the next island up, Ibey it's called. And they take a 20 minute ferry ride back and forth. That same ferry that's just dropped us off at the docks at ebay. Most of the island, it's just over a mile long, less than a quarter of a mile wide. Most of it is housing because about 12,000 people live on it. It is among the most densely populated islands on the planet.

[Abon Arlong]

Good morning, Hayley.

[Kai Rysdal]

Katelyn.

[Shiraz Meehan]

Okay.

[Kai Rysdal]

Good to see you.

[Abon Arlong]

Good morning.

[Kai Rysdal]

Abon Arlong, our fixer, is 35, born and raised here. He left for school Honolulu, but came back and now works with the city on disaster response. He met us as we got off the ferry and he got us to our first stop, which was meeting with city officials. This is a big green building and a conference room. Conference rooms in ebay are the same as conference rooms in all of the United States. We're sitting down with Hardin Lelan.

[Shiraz Meehan]

I'm the city manager.

[Kai Rysdal]

City manager, yeah. So it's basically you're in charge, right? I mean, I won't tell the mayor, but you're in charge. Yeah. Okay. Hardin was born and raised here on ebay as well. And he has seen the changes that climate change has brought.

[Shiraz Meehan]

Oh, yes, the islands are sinking. Yeah, that's absolutely the truth. Yeah. But we see the changes. I see, you know, the physical changes. And that happens to the coral islands, the reefs islands that we've been living in for the last, you know, 30, 40 years. Some of the islands within this atolls, they're gone. They're not here. I mean, when you go there, you just see only beaches or sand. There's no trees, it just, just beaches.

[Kai Rysdal]

Do you, and look, I'm asking you to speak for the whole community, but do you feel forgotten out here?

[Shiraz Meehan]

Yes. Yeah, we. I mean, I'm a descendant of one of the families that migrated from the mid atoll corridor. It was in the 50s, 60s when they started US government, you know, asking if they could lease these areas after.

[Kai Rysdal]

The Second World War. Between 1946 and 1958, the United States conducted 67 nuclear tests in the Marshall Islands, the most famous or infamous of which were in the Bikini Atoll, a bit more than 200 miles from eBay. Marshallese who lived in or even near that mid atoll corridor that Hardin was talking about were forcibly relocated, many of them to the Kwajalein Atoll. And in the decades since, they've been dealing with cancer and birth defects and other chronic health problems. And areas of the ocean which had kept the islands fed for millennia are now contaminated. Do you feel like the United States owes you something? Not you, but the Marshallese?

[Shiraz Meehan]

Yes. Yeah. I mean, in terms of, you know, you know, give us something value, give us something very valuable that, you know, might replace the islands that were here once before.

[Kai Rysdal]

The United States has a compact of free association with the Marshall Islands. It was renewed this year. It covers our lease of Kwajalein and 10 other islands in the atoll in return for $2.3 billion over 20 years. And Marshallese citizens can live and work in the United States without a visa. The government of the Marshall Islands has laid out its own plan to make their country livable through the middle of the next century. The National Adaptation Plan it's called. It estimates the cost to protect the islands and the atolls here at $35 billion. So when you're an old man, when you're 85 and you have grandchildren running around, maybe great grandchildren, what's this place gonna be like for them?

[Shiraz Meehan]

To be honest right now, what I'm thinking, I want to build this place, you know, I want to build this place, you know, for, you know, the generations to come. And I want to, you know, be able to provide a better living, you know, living conditions. We're trying to, you know, make sure this place, you know, survive in the next 20, 30 years.

[Kai Rysdal]

Are you hopeful?

[Shiraz Meehan]

I am very hopeful, yes.

[Kai Rysdal]

Why? Because it doesn't look good.

[Shiraz Meehan]

I think if there's a will, there's a way. We've always had that can do attitude with the culture, with the close knit community that we have, you know, the educations that we're getting today, the resources that we know, the friends that we do have, you know, that can provide us the, you know, the resources, the support. Then yes.

[Kai Rysdal]

While it was developing its national adaptation plan, the government did a survey. The overwhelming majority of Marshallese said they didn't want to leave. So tell us where we're going. What are we doing?

[Abon Arlong]

We're going for a stroll around ebay.

[Kai Rysdal]

That's Abon again. Our fixer we load up in his car after our meeting to take a quick tour.

[Abon Arlong]

Welcome to the slum of the Pacific.

[Kai Rysdal]

Why do you think they call it that?

[Abon Arlong]

I don't know. Maybe because it looks not that great.

[Kai Rysdal]

We pass densely packed streets, people carrying buckets of water back to their homes. There are kids running around on the side of the road and playing with stray dogs.

[Abon Arlong]

This whole area right here, this is way when king tide came, this was all washed away.

[Kai Rysdal]

There's all sorts of debris near the road, rusted out school bus and abandoned machinery. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what the vibe is like in the car. It's heavy. Granted I've known you about six and a half minutes, but you seem. I can't decide if it's angry or depressed or just. I don't know, I think I'm good.

[Abon Arlong]

Yeah, I don't think I'm angry or depressed. Just. It just saddens me. And it's scary to see the sea level rising. It's not looking bright, like the ocean is coming quicker than we thought.

[Kai Rysdal]

So I was talking to some of the folks who run that base and work the radars and are responsible for things and I said, you know, what are you going to do? Climate change is going to make this place uninhabitable in 40, 50, 60 years. And they said, we're going to fix it, we'll adapt and take care of it. Sounds like you think the United States is kidding itself.

[Abon Arlong]

Yeah. And sir, it's not 40 to 50 to 60 years. It's within the 15 to 20 years. Like there's the ocean right there.

[Kai Rysdal]

We didn't plan to turn the microphone on our fixture. We paid Aban for his time and paying sources isn't something that marketplace does. But what he had to say once we started talking is critical to this story because he sits at the intersection of a gut wrenching and legitimately existential reality. Help ebay and its people fight to stay here or help his community get out before it's too late. Aban is, as you can hear, not as positive as the older generation. Like City manager Hardin Lellet.

[Abon Arlong]

Like you was hearing from them earlier, they're like, oh, they still see themselves here into the next 20 years.

[Kai Rysdal]

I don't that older generation like Hardin want to build ebay up, literally. Higher seawalls, elevated roads and buildings. Aban says money would be better used to come up with an exit strategy.

[Abon Arlong]

We're already on a mass migration. There's more Marshallese in the states than in the Marshall Islands.

[Kai Rysdal]

I don't know if you were in the room when I was talking to Hardin, but I asked him that same question. You know, do you think the United States owes the Marshallese people something?

[Abon Arlong]

They owe us more than our lives. Like the nuclear testing. 67 bombs a thousand times greater than Hiroshima and not getting our justice. Yeah, they owe us. They owe us big.

[Kai Rysdal]

There is radioactive debris from those nuclear tests that's stored in the Marshall Islands. And while the Department of Energy says the risks of a leak are low, the thing we know about climate change is that risks, change and threats multiply really quickly. We spent all in all, a week in the Marshall Islands reporting on climate change and the American military. And you can check out the rest of our series, stories of climate change and national security from Alaska to San Diego and Washington, D.C. wherever you get your podcasts, just search for how we survive this final note on the way out today, in which one is reminded yet again that credit scores really matter. It's data from the Federal Reserve bank of New York that shows applications for all kinds of credit, but especially car loans and mortgage refinancing, have been rejected this year at a rate higher than it's been in more than a decade. 21% rejection rate this year, 17.5% before the pandemic. And, said the New York Fed, if your credit score is below 680, you are especially likely to run into lone trouble. Our daily production team includes Andy Corbin, Nicholas Guillaume, Alize Hasan, Maria Hollenhorst, Sarah Leeson, Sean McHenry and Sophia Torrentio. I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow. Everybody. This is APM Carl's Jr. S Big Carl fans know nothing beats the layers and layers of flavor of a Big Carl. Nothing beats that char, boiled beef, American cheese and tangy Carl's classic sauce. Nothing except getting a second big carl for just $1. Big carl just one ups itself for just one buck. Then buy one big carl, get one for a buck. Deal only. Carl's JR big burger good Burger available for a limited time at participating restaurants. Tax not included. Price may vary.

[Sabri Benishour]

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