Evaluating the damage

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Episode Summary

Title: Evaluating the Damage
Host: Kai Ryssdal
Release Date: October 9, 2024

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1. Hurricane Milton’s Impact and Preparations

Overview:
The episode opens with Kai Ryssdal discussing Hurricane Milton, a significant storm poised to strike Florida's west coast near Sarasota. Milton is expected to bring a life-threatening storm surge and maintain hurricane strength as it moves across the peninsula into the Atlantic by Thursday. This situation is compounded by the region's ongoing recovery from Hurricane Helene, complicating both preparation efforts and damage assessment.

Key Points:

• Corey George’s Preparations:
  Amy Scott interviews Corey George, a seasoned individual with 20 years of hurricane preparedness experience. He details his comprehensive preparation strategy, including maintaining water and canned food supplies, installing a whole-house generator post-Hurricane Ian, securing trash cans, and strategically parking vehicles to mitigate damage risks.

  • Quote: “We keep water and basically canned food on hand. We have a whole house generator that we put in after Hurricane Ian a couple of years ago.” [01:07]

• Damage Modeling Challenges:
  John Schnair from CoreLogic explains the complexities in predicting Milton's damage due to residual impacts from Hurricane Helene. There’s a heightened risk of duplicate damage assessments and increased debris acting as projectiles, exacerbating the situation. Additionally, a phenomenon known as "demand surge" is anticipated, where the urgent need for repair services drives up costs.

  • Quote: “The models learn from every storm and with more frequent severe weather, there are unfortunately more opportunities to learn.” [04:06]

• Economic Toll of Previous Storms:
  Jay Gwynne from Varisc estimates Hurricane Helene’s damages at over $30 billion, highlighting significant uninsured losses as many affected individuals lacked flood insurance. He emphasizes the necessity for accurate risk modeling to inform both insurers and policyholders.

  • Quote: “These disasters are waiting to happen in many areas. So I think these risks and hazards need to be modeled accurately and both insurers and insurance buyers need to make informed choices.” [03:53]

2. Surge in Corporate Bond Demand

Overview:
The podcast transitions to financial markets, focusing on the rising demand for corporate bonds. Justin Ho reports on how recent Federal Reserve rate changes and a resilient labor market are influencing investor behavior towards corporate debt securities.

Key Points:

• Shift in Investor Preference:
  Winnie Caesar of Credit Suisse explains that with the Federal Reserve beginning to lower interest rates, government bonds yields have fallen, making corporate bonds more attractive due to their higher returns relative to similar risk levels.

  • Quote: “But now that the Fed is starting to lower interest rates and government bond yields have been falling, those corporate bonds are looking a lot better by comparison.” [05:33]

• Corporate Response to Increased Demand:
  John Bay, a finance professor at Northeastern University, notes that companies are capitalizing on the high investor demand by issuing substantial new debt. This influx allows businesses to either bolster their cash reserves or invest in growth initiatives such as research and development, facility expansion, or acquisitions.

  • Quote: “Plus, corporate bond yields have been falling too. Bostjanzik says if more vulnerable companies can issue new debt at cheaper rates, they can avoid having to make more painful decisions.” [06:30]

• Economic Implications:
  Kathy Bostjanzik from Nationwide highlights the positive ripple effects of increased corporate borrowing, including sustained hiring and investment, which support the overall resilience of the labor market.

  • Quote: “An increase in cheaper corporate bonds can help ensure that the labor market stays resilient.” [07:10]

3. Mortgage Rate Fluctuations Amid Economic Signals

Overview:
Kai Ryssdal delves into the unexpected rise in mortgage rates, despite recent Federal Reserve rate cuts. Samantha Fields and Corey George provide insights into the factors influencing this trend, including strong job market data and investor expectations.

Key Points:

• Unexpected Rise in Mortgage Rates:
  After anticipating a decline due to the Fed's rate cuts, the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage unexpectedly rose to 6.5%.

  • Quote: “When the economy is looking a little stronger, prospects a little brighter, rates might move up.” [09:25]

• Influence of the Job Market:
  An unexpectedly strong September jobs report suggests that the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates as aggressively, contributing to the upward pressure on mortgage rates.

  • Quote: “A strong job market is a good thing for the economy, but it's not so good for mortgage rates...” [09:44]

• Long-Term Economic Expectations:
  Darrell Fairweather and Logan Motashami discuss how long-term economic outlooks, particularly the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, play a crucial role in determining mortgage rate trajectories.

  • Quote: “When the economy looks strong like it does now, the yield on those 10-year Treasuries tends to rise.” [10:27]

4. Boeing’s Machinists Strike and Pension Negotiations

Overview:
The episode shifts focus to labor relations, highlighting the ongoing machinists strike at Boeing. The central issue revolves around the reinstatement of defined benefit pensions, which have largely disappeared from corporate America over the past few decades.

Key Points:

• Strike Details and Demands:
  The machinists strike, now four weeks in, centers on the union’s demand to reinstate defined benefit pensions, which Boeing ceased offering about a decade ago. The company’s latest offer includes a 30% pay increase over four years, which the union has rejected.

  • Quote: “I’d be very, very surprised if it ended up as part of any agreement.” [14:45]

• Pensions vs. 401(k)s:
  Experts like Alicia Minnell and Teresa Geller Ducci explain the historical context of pensions, their decline due to cost and uncertainty, and why they are resurging in labor negotiations amid high-interest environments.

  • Quote: “In a high interest rate environment like right now, if an employer promises a pension, they have to invest that money upfront.” [15:05]

• Future Implications:
  The potential success of these negotiations could set a precedent, encouraging other unions to push for pension reinstatements, thereby influencing corporate retirement benefits more broadly.

  • Quote: “If unionized workers succeed in securing pensions with some of the bigger employers, it could start a trend.” [15:34]

5. Political Advertising and Campaign Spending in Swing States

Overview:
Kimberly Adams reports on the surge in political advertising and campaign spending, particularly in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia. The focus extends to Nebraska, a traditionally red state that has unique Electoral College dynamics.

Key Points:

• Electoral College Strategy:
  Nebraska's split Electoral College allocation, where congressional districts can diverge from the statewide vote, makes it a targeted battleground. Both Democrats and Republicans invest heavily in Nebraska to secure its additional electoral votes.

  • Quote: “Instead, that candidate gets two of the state's five votes, the other three go to the winner in each of its three congressional districts.” [17:40]

• Ballot Initiatives and Funding:
  The influx of political money also stems from various ballot initiatives in Nebraska, including issues like marijuana legalization, paid sick leave, and abortion rights, attracting both local and national funding.

  • Quote: “We've also seen more money because of many of the ballot measures that are on our ballot this year.” [19:28]

• Impact of Increased Advertising:
  Residents experience a heightened level of political activity, with increased TV ads, mailers, and door-to-door campaigning, mirroring the high-stakes environment of traditional swing states.

  • Quote: “This election looks very different compared to previous cycles. Way more TV ads, mailboxes stuffed with flyers...” [20:00]

6. Personal Stories in the Economy: Cargo Trailer Sales Owner

Overview:
In the "My Economy" segment, Mike Waglum, owner of Cargo Trailer Sales and Lances Trailer Sales, shares his personal journey and challenges navigating his business amidst economic uncertainties.

Key Points:

• Business Legacy and Transition:
  Mike describes taking over the family business during the economic downturn of 2007-2008, initially studying to be an English teacher before committing to the business full-time. His sentiment underscores the personal decisions behind small business operations.

  • Quote: “I haven't really felt the need. You know, we've really built a successful business here.” [21:06]

• Economic Challenges:
  Despite a decade of growth, recent months have posed difficulties due to customers postponing significant purchases like trailers, reflecting broader economic hesitations.

  • Quote: “This past quarter is probably the first quarter since forced closures during COVID where we'll post a small loss.” [23:00]

• Resilience and Reward:
  Mike emphasizes the rewarding aspects of running a business, highlighting the satisfaction derived from daily achievements and persistence through economic fluctuations.

  • Quote: “You don't have to hit a home run every day to be proud of what you accomplished.” [24:15]

7. Federal Reserve Insights and Future Projections

Overview:
The episode concludes with an inside look at the Federal Reserve, discussing recent policy decisions and anticipating upcoming economic indicators.

Key Points:

• Recent Rate Decision:
  The Fed recently cut its key interest rate by half a percentage point, with Governor Michelle Bowman dissenting, advocating for a smaller cut. This decision reflects internal debates on the appropriate monetary response to current economic conditions.

  • Quote: “While there was only one public dissenting vote that day, Governor Michelle Bowman would have preferred a quarter point cut.” [12:55]

• Upcoming Economic Data:
  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is anticipated to provide further insights into inflation trends, which will influence future Fed policies and economic forecasts.

  • Quote: “The September Consumer Price Index comes out tomorrow.” [Final Section]

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Conclusion:
This episode of Marketplace provides a comprehensive analysis of current economic and business issues, from natural disaster impacts and financial market trends to labor negotiations and political campaign strategies. Through expert interviews and personal stories, the podcast offers listeners a nuanced understanding of how these diverse factors interconnect and influence both the macro and microeconomic landscapes.

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Notable Contributors:

• Amy Scott: Reporter, Marketplace
• Corey George: Lecturer in Art, University of Tampa
• John Schnair: Director of Catastrophe Response, CoreLogic
• Jay Gwynne: Chief Research Officer, Varisc
• Winnie Caesar: Head of Strategy, Credit Suisse
• John Bay: Finance Professor, Northeastern University
• Kathy Bostjanzik: Chief Economist, Nationwide
• Samantha Fields: Reporter, Marketplace
• Lisa Sturtevant: Chief Economist, Bright MLS
• Mike Frattentoni: Chief Economist, Mortgage Bankers Association
• Darrell Fairweather: Chief Economist, Redfin
• Kaylee Wells: Reporter, Marketplace
• Lynn Vincent: Management Professor, Syracuse University
• Alicia Minnell: Director, Center for Retirement Research, Boston College
• Teresa Geller Ducci: Labor Economist
• Teresa Thibodeau: Co-Chair, Red State Nebraska PAC
• Gavin Geiss: Executive Director, Common Cause Nebraska
• Kimberly Adams: Reporter, Marketplace

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For more detailed insights and updates, visit marketplace.org or subscribe to the Marketplace podcast on your preferred platform.

Transcript

[Kai Rysdal]

It's a really big storm and figuring out how much damage it's going to do is really hard. From American public media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kyle Rysdal. It is Wednesday today, October 9th. Good as always to have you along everybody. Hurricane Milton is on track to hit the west coast of Florida late tonight or early tomorrow morning south of Tampa Bay, probably near Sarasota, maybe bringing with it a life threatening storm surge and staying at hurricane strength until it moves across the peninsula into the Atlantic on Thursday. The Tampa Bay area though, is still recovering from Helene, which is challenging both efforts to prepare for this new storm and to estimate the damage it is going to bring. Marketplace's Amy Scott us going.

[Amy Scott]

When we talked Tuesday evening, Corey George was ticking through his hurricane preparation checklist, refined by 20 years of practice.

[Corey George]

We keep water and basically canned food on hand. We have a whole house generator that we put in after Hurricane Ian a couple of years ago.

[Amy Scott]

Later that night he would put away the trash cans and secure anything that could be blown around the yard.

[Corey George]

We'll park one car in the garage and park another one in the yard so that they're not both taken out. I guess it's the best way to think about it.

[Amy Scott]

George lives in Plant City, Florida, just east of Tampa. He's a lecturer in art at the University of Tampa, which evacuated and is closed through Friday. George and his wife, who actually works in disaster management, plan to ride out the storm at home.

[Corey George]

One of the reasons we live where we live is that we are further inland and about 100 some odd feet above sea level. You know, our biggest issue here is just wind.

[Amy Scott]

While George was hunkering down near Tampa, John Schnair was in Boston trying to estimate the potential damage to homes like George's. He's director of catastrophe response at CoreLogic. He his team uses computer modeling to simulate potential losses for insurance companies based on a storm's track and intensity and the structures in its path.

[Corey George]

What is the structure primarily made out of? Is it a wood frame home?

[Kai Rysdal]

Is it a masonry construction?

[Corey George]

These are the things that really influence wind and flood losses.

[Amy Scott]

This kind of modeling has become more essential as extreme events pile up and more accurate as technology and climate science have evolved. But Schnair says predicting the damage from Milton is more complicated. Because Florida's Gulf coast is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, there's a risk of double counting properties already destroyed.

[Corey George]

In that same vein, there were a lot of properties that were not completely damaged but compromised.

[Amy Scott]

So another hit could be devastating. Plus all the Debris crews haven't had time to clean up yet could become projectiles that cause further damage. Back to back storms could also add to a post hurricane phenomenon called demand surge.

[Corey George]

Lumber roofers, glazers. The fact that there's going to be so many people across Florida all demanding for the stuff, it's going to increase the costs.

[Amy Scott]

The economic toll from last month's hurricane Helene is just starting to become clear. Jay Gwynne is chief research officer at the catastrophe modeling firm Varisc. He estimates Helene's total damage at more than 30 billion dol, much of it not covered by insurance because so many people in the storm's path didn't think they needed flood insurance.

[Jay Gwynne]

These disasters are waiting to happen in many areas. So I think these risks and hazards need to be modeled accurately and both insurers and insurance buyers need to make informed choices.

[Amy Scott]

The models learn from every storm and with more frequent severe weather, there are unfortunately more opportunities to learn. I'm Amy Scott for Marketplace Wall Street.

[Kai Rysdal]

Today was a strange blend of storm watching overseas markets, Fed minutes and who knows what else. More record highs is what came out the other end, though. We'll have the details when we do. The number we enjoy from time to time on this program. A dip into the bond market. Sometimes it's government bonds. Today it's corporate bonds debt that companies sell to finance whatever it is that they choose to spend money on. As Marketplace's Justin Ho reports, demand for corporate bonds has been skyrocketing of late.

[Winnie Caesar]

Back when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates, demand for corporate bonds was pretty weak. Winnie Caesar, head of strategy at credit sites, says that's because the Fed's rate hikes made government bonds look a lot more attractive.

[Kai Rysdal]

For an investor, it's all about where you can get the most bang for your buck or the highest return on investment with relatively similar risk.

[Winnie Caesar]

But now that the Fed is starting to lower interest rates and government bond yields have been falling, those corporate bonds are looking a lot better by comparison, especially because the labor market's been resilient. Caesar says that's a sign that investors can feel more comfortable buying corporate bonds.

[Kai Rysdal]

Companies are not needing to do layoffs or stop hiring, and that indicates that the fundamental health of corporate America is still in good shape.

[Winnie Caesar]

As a result, companies have been issuing a lot of new debt.

[Kai Rysdal]

This is the right opportunity to take advantage of the increased appetite from investors.

[Winnie Caesar]

That's John Bay, a finance professor at Northeastern University. He says all the demand for corporate bonds is giving companies an excuse to hoard some extra cash either to just hold onto it in case the economy turns south, or to invest it back into the company.

[Kai Rysdal]

You can use it for R and D purposes, or you want to grow through either building a new factory yourself, manufacturing facility, or acquiring another company.

[Winnie Caesar]

Some of those choices are more helpful for the company itself than for the broader economy. But Kathy Bostjanzik, chief economist at Nationwide, says more corporate borrowing can have some positive ripple effects.

[Kai Rysdal]

If companies are optimistic in their investing, they also tend to be hiring workers as well, so that could be a very positive sign.

[Winnie Caesar]

Plus, corporate bond yields have been falling too. Bosjacek says if more vulnerable companies can issue new debt at cheaper rates, they can avoid having to make more painful decisions.

[Kai Rysdal]

If those high interest costs were not lowered, then they'd have to cut expenses in other ways. Could be pulling back on investment, but it could also be reducing payroll costs.

[Winnie Caesar]

In other words, an increase in cheaper corporate bonds can help ensure that the labor market stays resilient. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

Hey, you listen to podcasts, right? Come on, I know you do. Well, if you miss something that we do on the actual radio, we do have a podcast you can get to if you need it, marketplace.org or of course, the platform of your choice. Just subscribe.

[Winnie Caesar]

There's.

[Kai Rysdal]

There I was listening to the Marketplace Morning Report this morning when I heard David Brancaccio saying something about mortgage rates going up. It was really early so I didn't catch the actual number, but when I went to look it up later, I I confess I was a little taken aback. According to Bankrate.com, as of today, the national average for a 30 year fixed mortgage is 6 and a half percent. I was surprised because as you know, it's been a good three weeks since the Federal Reserve cut its key rate and mortgage rates had been dropping. So Marketplaces met the fields spent some time today finding out what is going on.

[Samantha Fields]

Just two weeks ago on this show I did a story about how mortgage rates were dropping.

[Kai Rysdal]

Mortgage rates came down quite a bit in July and August in anticipation that the Federal Reserve was going to start cutting rates.

[Samantha Fields]

Lisa Sturtevant is chief economist at Bright mls and when she and I talked then about where mortgage rates were likely to go next, there was really no.

[Kai Rysdal]

Expectation that they would continue to fall, right? That all of the falling had sort of been baked in.

[Samantha Fields]

There was also no expectation that mortgage rates would rise again. But Mike Frattentoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers association, says then came the September jobs report, which was unexpectedly strong.

[Corey George]

Another piece of evidence that the job market is staying stronger than many had anticipated. Maybe the Fed's not going to have to cut as far or as fast as previously thought.

[Samantha Fields]

A strong job market is a good thing for the economy, but it's not so good for mortgage rates, at least not if you're a prospective buyer hoping for them to go down.

[Corey George]

When the economy is looking a little stronger, prospects a little brighter rates might move up. When people are more worried about the state of the job market and the broader economy, rates may trend down a bit.

[Samantha Fields]

Mortgages are long term loans 15 years or 30. So Darrell Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, says what happens with mortgage rates has a lot to do with expectations about the long term trajectory of the economy. Sensing a theme, Expectations, expectations about what.

[Jay Gwynne]

Interest rates will be 10, 20, even 30 years from now.

[Kai Rysdal]

Go into what mortgage rates are today.

[Samantha Fields]

If you want to know where mortgage rates might be headed. Logan Motashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, says keep an eye on the yield on 10 year treasury bonds.

[Kai Rysdal]

It's just borrowing costs on the longer end. That's why the 10 year yield matters more than the fed funds rate. So follow the economic data and it'll guide you to where mortgage rates will go.

[Samantha Fields]

When the economy looks strong like it does now, the yield on those 10 year treasuries tends to rise. So you can expect mortgage rates might too. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

[Corey George]

Coming up, you don't have to hit a home run every day to be proud of what you accomplished.

[Kai Rysdal]

You totally don't. But first let's do the numbers. Dow Industrial is up 431 points today, 1%, 42,512 for the blue chips. The NASDAQ increased 108 points. That is 6, 10% 18,000 29 or 1 the S&P 500 up. That is 7/10% 57 and 92. We just heard from Samantha Fields about why mortgage rates are going up. So let's look at some mortgage companies. Then Rocket Companies sank 1.5% today. Loan Depot built up 2 and 4, 10%. UWM holdings, which used to be United Shore Financial Corporation. I don't know how they got the UWM out of that. They were flat Penny Mac Financial Services dipped 6, 10%. Helen of Troy Ltd. Which is in case you didn't know, the company behind brands as varied as hot tools, curling irons, Osprey backpacks, also OXO kitchenware. Perhaps it's oxo, I don't really know. But I use their products because they're good. Reported better than expected earnings today. That is not a plug, it's just a statement of fact. Posted third quarter better than expected revenue, which was however a decline from the previous quarter. The company said the decline was primarily driven by dropping sales of hair appliances, air purifiers and humidifiers. They sell everything. Helen of Troy surged 17,9. 10% today. Bond prices. Sam Fields was just talking about this. The yield on the 10 year T note was up 4.07%. Hence mortgage rates, right? Oil, by the way, down 3. 10%, 73.33 a barrel. You're listening to Marketplace. You turn to Marketplace for up to the minute news for stories that show you the connections between global events and your personal economy. And you're not alone. Marketplace is the most widely consumed business and economic news program in the country. We're proud to make fact based journalism freely accessible and Marketplace investors make it all possible. Your year end donation today will make a real difference in our nonprofit newsroom and in the lives of millions of Marketplace listeners every single day. So please contribute what you can [e-mail] donate this is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. We're almost four weeks into the big machinists strike at Boeing. If you're keeping track and there are no signs of a deal in the offing, last offer on the table was a 30% pay increase over four years. The union said no. The major sticking point here is pensions. Boeing workers stopped getting what are known as defined benefit pensions about a decade ago, and they want them back. In these times of heftier organized labor influence, though, Marketplace Kelly Wells explains why pensions are in the labor labor conversation once again, even as they have become less common overall.

[Kaylee Wells]

Fifty years ago, most full time workers had a pension once they retired. Their employers sent them a check every month until they died. But in the 1980s, pensions started to disappear. Lynn Vincent is a management professor at Syracuse University.

[Amy Scott]

Organizations don't like pensions because of the cost and uncertainty.

[Kaylee Wells]

Costly because typically every full time employee gets a pension without opting in. Unlike a 401k. And uncertain employers don't know how long retirees will live and keep getting benefits. But that's also why workers like pensions. Last year, just 15% of workers had access to pension plans. Now unionized workers like the ones at Boeing are negotiating to get them back. Whether they're likely to succeed depends on who you ask.

[Kai Rysdal]

I'd be very, very surprised if it ended up as part of any agreement.

[Kaylee Wells]

Alicia Minnell directs the center for Retirement Research at Boston College she says pensions were designed in a time when employees stayed at the same giant company.

[Kai Rysdal]

They don't work so well when you have smaller companies, more mobile workforce, and.

[Amy Scott]

People are living longer.

[Kaylee Wells]

But they do work well in a high interest rate environment like right now. If an employer promises a pension, they have to invest that money upfront. The higher the interest rate, the smaller that initial investment can be because it'll grow. Labor economist Teresa Geller Ducci specializes in retirement. She says pension plans are potentially a better deal for employers than they were, say, 10 years ago because it comes.

[Amy Scott]

In a macro environment where it may.

[Kai Rysdal]

Be cheaper and more attractive for the employers to reinstate them.

[Kaylee Wells]

Ghillarducci says workers are seeing their parents retiring and want the financial security they got with their pensions. And if unionized workers succeed in securing pensions with some of the bigger employers, it could start a trend.

[Amy Scott]

It's often the big employers that lead.

[Kai Rysdal]

The way because they're setting corporate norms.

[Kaylee Wells]

Boeing's offers have gotten more generous as the strikes have gone on. But the company says it can't accept the union's demands and REM competitive. I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

The people who keep track of this stuff. That would be the staff at Open Secrets, which tracks political spending. They say campaigns, parties and political action committees are on track to spend almost $16 billion on this year's election. That's everything. Ads, organizers on the ground, political consultants. But as the casual observer would expect, a big slice of that big pile of money is flowing into the key swing states for ads that could push the Electoral College vote one way or the other. Pennsylvania, Michig, Georgia, are the top three. But purple states like that aren't the only ones getting bombarded with ad spending. Marketplace's Kimberly Adams explains why Bright red Nebraska is seeing a deluge of political money, too.

[Jay Gwynne]

The hottest bit of campaign swag this cycle in Omaha, Nebraska, is a yard sign. Not a Trump or Harris for President sign, but a simple blue dot on a white background.

[Corey George]

The Democrats are, you know, clamoring for these yard signs to put in their yard.

[Jay Gwynne]

Randall Adkins teaches political science at the University of Nebraska, Omaha.

[Corey George]

Because they like being the blue dot in the middle of the red Republican state, in the middle of all of.

[Kai Rysdal]

The red Republican states that are in.

[Corey George]

The middle of the country.

[Jay Gwynne]

All those blue dots are dotting lawns across the city. Because unlike every other state but Maine, Nebraska doesn't automatically allocate all of its Electoral College votes to the statewide winner in the presidential race. Instead, that candidate gets two of the state's five votes, the other three go to the winner in each of its three congressional districts.

[Corey George]

So while the state may vote Republican and two of the congressional districts may vote Republican, it's entirely possible that the Nebraska 2nd congressional district could vote Democratic like it did in 2008 and 2020.

[Jay Gwynne]

That 2nd district includes the city of Omaha. There was a recent attempt to eliminate that blue Democratic dot in the sea of red. It failed. So both sides have to spend Nebraska in case that one Electoral College vote turns out to make a difference.

[Amy Scott]

I think it's great because we aren't a flyover state right now. We are getting a lot of attention.

[Jay Gwynne]

Teresa Thibodeau is co chair of the Red State Nebraska pac.

[Amy Scott]

A lot of people are wondering, hey who? Who can we trust on the advertising that we're seeing on the ads that go up on tv?

[Kai Rysdal]

And there has been a lot of.

[Amy Scott]

Dark money coming in.

[Jay Gwynne]

Thibodeau's group has been distributing its own yard signs with a bright red image of the state to counter all those blue dot lawn signs in Omaha. On top of the Electoral College fight, there are competitive House and Senate races in the state this cycle as well. And with control of Congress in the balance, the national parties and PACs are pouring money in. Even some state level issues are getting funding from outside, says Gavin Geiss, executive director of the pro democracy group Common Cause Nebraska.

[Kai Rysdal]

We've also seen more money because of many of the ballot measures that are on our ballot this year, which have received a lot of funding from outside interests.

[Jay Gwynne]

Sharing the ballot with the federal election are ballot initiatives on marijuana, paid sick leave, using public funds to subsidize private school tuition, and abortion.

[Kai Rysdal]

Both on the protecting abortion access side and on the pro life side. Both of them have seen tremendous amount of federal Monday coming from national interests.

[Jay Gwynne]

Guy says all this extra cash flowing into Nebraska means this election looks very different compared to previous cycles. Way more TV ads, mailboxes stuffed with flyers, and more robust door knocking operations for the ballot initiatives and the federal candidates.

[Kai Rysdal]

I myself have seen just far more activity in my neighborhood with organizers from campaigns going door to door and talking with people about the candidates that are going to be on the ballot, which.

[Jay Gwynne]

Has residents in at least some parts of Nebraska getting a taste of the swing state experience in Washington. I'm Kimberly Adams for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

We try as best we can to show you the sometimes invisible parts of this economy. The truckers who are getting things from point A to point B in the middle of the night, the customs brokers and programmers and grocery store Stalkers who work behind the scenes or the equipment that so many people in industries need that you might just never think about. Here's today's installment of our series my economy.

[Corey George]

My name is Mike Waglum. I'm owner operator of cargo trailer sales and Lances trailer sales located in Lansdale, Pennsylvania and Athens, Ohio. My parents started the business in 1987 and I was born in 1988. You know, being around heavy equipment and trucks as a young boy is exciting but you know, I didn't consider it my chosen career path and actually went to school to be an English teacher originally. But during the downturn 0708 the business was struggling. I was at school for a couple years and decided I'd come back and help out in the family business. And you know, it's a big decision, but I figured I could always go back to school if I wanted to. And I haven't really felt the need. You know, we've really built a successful business here. We've just expanded in a second location. I have no regrets. I love it. I love coming to work every day. So it was the right choice for me for sure. Business over the past decade has overall been really great. Business over the last few months has been much more difficult. This past quarter is probably the first quarter since forced closures during COVID where we'll post a small loss. We're seeing a lot of our recreational customers hold off. A trailer is a significant purchase. It's not as much as a car in most cases, but we have small trailers for a homeowner to use to move mulch around starting at $1,500 and then we'll sell like a two car stacker for motorsports and that could be a six figure purchase. I think whenever there's any type of an uncertainty whether it's economic or political, some people just choose to wait until things settle before making a large investment. Running a business has its moments for sure of frustration and fetal position moments. But ultimately I find it very rewarding. I enjoy the instant gratification that I get from completing a task or just moving something forward an inch or a foot. You don't have to hit a home run every day to be proud of what you accomplished.

[Kai Rysdal]

Mike Moglum, second generation owner of cargo trailer sales and Lances trailer sales Two locations for your convenience, Lansdale, Pennsylvania and Athens, Ohio should you be in need. You know, this economy is made up of a zillion different moving parts. Take a minute. Let us know where you fit in, would you? Marketplace.org myeconomy this final note on the way out today, a quick peek inside the Federal Reserve and then a calendar update. The minutes of the most recent meeting of the central bank came out today. That would, of course, be the meeting where the Fed cut its key interest rate a half a percentage point. And the news item is that while there was only one public dissenting vote that day, Governor Michelle Bowman would have preferred a quarter point cut. Inside the room, as it were, there was sentiment among, and this is a quote, a few participants that smaller would have been better. Told you that so I could tell you this. The September Consumer Price Index comes out tomorrow. That is of course, inflation at the consumer level. Our media production team includes Brian Allison, Jake Cherry, Justin Dueler, Drew Josdant, Gary O'Keefe, Charlton Thorpe, Juan Carlos Tirado and Becca Weinman. Jeff Peters is the manager of media production and I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is apm. You turn to Marketplace for up to the minute news for stories that show you the connections between global events and your personal economy. And you're not alone. Marketplace is the most widely consumed business and economic news program in the country. We're proud to make fact based journalism freely accessible and Marketplace investors make it all possible. Your year end donation today will make a real difference in our nonprofit newsroom and in the lives of millions of Marketplace listeners every single day. So please contribute what you can [e-mail] donate.