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Kai Rysdal
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Kate Dargan Marquis
On the program today the Magnificent Seven, the stocks not the movie housing two and the fires From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kai rysdal. Monday today, 13th January. Good as always to have you along everybody. We are still on fire watch here in Los Angeles. Red flag warning is the technical term as the two biggest fires, Palisades and Eaton, it at various degrees of containment with more wind on the way, more than two dozen dead so far, 12,000 structures destroyed, tens of thousands of people displaced. There has as you have been seeing, monumental effort for some 14,000 firefighters using all the tools at their disposal. Technology is and will be in the future. Among those tools. Kate Dargan Marquis is senior Wildfire Advisor at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. Kate, thanks for joining us.
Justin Ho
Thank you, Kai.
Kate Dargan Marquis
You know, so we were chatting just before we turned on the microphones and you said you do a lot of work now on the future of fire. And before we get there, I want to talk about the right now of fire and what technology is out there that can help us figure out what's happening on fire sort of even before they start.
Justin Ho
Right? Even before they start. So you were thinking how can we predict the when and where of fire?
Kate Dargan Marquis
How can we predict it and see it? And I mean there must be AI powered cameras and all of that.
Justin Ho
Well, let's start off then with the moment that the fires do start. We have put to work these intelligent cameras that are mounted on mountaintops repeater sites and we see the smoke columns rising from those cameras. We do an image assessment, a remote sensing assessment. The computer system algorithms can define how bad the fire is by the image Detections of the changes and the fire agencies are alerted at the moment the smoke is detected in the first place. We're also working really hard right now to put up a system called firesat. And that is a low earth orbit satellite system that will ultimately launch 52 satellites that circle the globe every 15 minutes. It will give us fire detections down to just a few meters in size. And this is something that firefighters don't have today.
Kate Dargan Marquis
This is sort of a little sideways, but roll with me here. This is kind of an infrastructure question, right? It's a firefighting infrastructure challenge, the future of fire. And when you start talking infrastructure, you have to talk scale. And a lot of that investment seems to me to have to come from government sources. These private companies, I imagine, are counting on the government to sort of give them a little boost as they try to scale.
Justin Ho
Yes, but that is a tough sell.
Kate Dargan Marquis
Yeah.
Justin Ho
How you build a market and how you invest in R and D is always a chicken or the egg question. You have to have a market to make the investment pay off. Government is not necessarily the most innovative of purchasers. So figuring out how to mix the innovative individuals in government, how to do what we call co development, where you sit down with a group of firefighters who may not know what technology could offer and paint the vision for them. And at the moment we're leveraging philanthropy to be able to show the way. So for that's that's why a number of large philanthropic folks, especially in the California area, have been investing in technology related projects underwritten by philanthropic investments for the first several years.
Kate Dargan Marquis
That's the scale challenge. It seems to me there is also a speed challenge. And with the acknowledgement that you're a firefighter, not a climate scientist, it's clear that climate change means these fires are going to be coming more often and they're going to be bigger. The speed challenge here is a very real one. No?
Justin Ho
Well, when by speed you mean how long can we afford to get our hands around this truly devastating, right?
Kate Dargan Marquis
How fast can we leverage technology and all the things you and others are working on in an atmosphere where the rate of change is speeding up?
Justin Ho
Well, we're a good 20 years behind the curve. So the answer is we should be moving rapidly, as rapidly as we can. And I don't want to say that technology is the answer because at the end of the day, there is a very difficult and complex problem to solve relative to keeping communities from burning down the way we just witnessed. And a lot of that has to do with getting communities and individuals to engage at the level of the house. We have to engage communities and citizens and the local politicians and the homeowners themselves to take the actions necessary. Some of that involves technology. But in high wind conditions, in overwhelming fire starts, multiple fires in a small geography under those kinds of weather and fuel and temperature dryness conditions, really at the end of the day, we have to have passive protections built in at the house scale of themselves. And that's an important piece of the equation.
Kate Dargan Marquis
Kay Dargan Marquis has been in firefighting her whole life. Right now she's at, she's at the Gordon and Betty Moore foundation doing the same thing. Kate, thanks very much for your time. I really do appreciate it.
Justin Ho
Good luck to you, Kai, you too.
Kate Dargan Marquis
Thanks.
Justin Ho
Bye. Bye.
Kate Dargan Marquis
Wall street on this Monday. Technology took the hit. Oil was up, bond yields too. We will have the details when we do the numbers. The costs of any natural disaster, wildfire, hurricane, flood, what have you. Those costs are borne at least in part by homeowners themselves, especially if their insurance premiums spike afterward. Last week, the ratings agency Morningstar Dbrs said the fire situation in LA reinforces the need for adequate rate increases on home insurance in California. That's going to be a challenge for residential mortgage holders and for business borrowers too. So Marketplace's Justin Ho called up a few lenders to get a sense of what's what for those would be borrowers.
Kai Rysdal
Over the last year, Dominic Miartin, the CEO of American Pride bank in Macon, Georgia, says many of his clients have faced steep spikes in their insurance premiums after major hurricanes in the Southeast. In those cases, the borrower simply may not have the ability to pay for those insurance premiums or in some cases may not have easy access to insurance at all. Nyartin says when borrowers have to pay way more for insurance, it's in the bank's interest to make sure that a borrower can still afford their monthly payments. Because the last thing that a lender.
Kate Dargan Marquis
Particularly a community lender, wants to do.
Kai Rysdal
Is have to take the property or foreclose on the property, right? That hurts everyone, hurts the community, hurts the borrower and hurts the bank.
Justin Ho
Myartin says the bank has a few.
Kai Rysdal
Tools it can use to help a borrower. For one, it can make changes to an existing mortgage to help offset the higher cost of insurance. Janice Height with the government backed mortgage corporation Fannie Mae says lenders can modify loans to extend payoff periods or lower interest rates. It actually, you know, restructures the mortgage to take into consideration what the borrower's payment situation is to make the payment more affordable. Borrowers can also take their time to just focus on recovering and figure out their payments later, says Nathan Raggi, CEO of First Pacific bank in San Diego, California. He says when wildfires have affected his clients in the past, those borrowers typically defer their payments. Normally it's like a 90 day deferral where you'll just hold off on payments. Those will be tacked onto the back of the loan. If a borrower's insurance premiums rise too high or if a borrower loses their insurance, their lender might force them to sell the property, says Dominic Miartin at American Pride Bank. The lender just about doesn't have a choice, right? The lender has to ask the borrower to pay the loan off. That's because the lender doesn't want to be on the hook if an uninsured home floods or burns down. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.
Kate Dargan Marquis
Those of you who've flipped on CNBC sometime the past couple of years, either on purpose or by accident, you're going to know the phrase the Magnificent Seven. Mag 7 in Wall Street. Speak Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. Huge American tech companies of one specialty or another, all of which are invested heavily in artificial intelligence. But the reason they are so magnificent is because over the past two years, their stock prices have soared to the point where those seven companies now account for more than one third of the value of the entire S&P 500, which I will remind you here, has 500 companies in it. So as earnings season kicks off this week, Marketplace's Matt Levin explains what it means to have so much money concentrated in so few companies, both for Wall street and for the real economy.
Kai Rysdal
This level of stock market concentration is basically unprecedented. I don't think if you go back in history, you can see a period of time where the top five, the top seven, the top 10 US companies are so dominant. Michael Hartnett is the chief investment strategist at bank of America and the guy who actually coined the term Magnificent Seven. So if maybe some of these multi billion dollar AI bets don't pan out the way these companies think, it won't just tank tech stocks if suddenly they trip up. Yeah, that can quickly cause a big decline in the stock market. And in turn, that will have an instant impact on whether individuals get up in the morning or companies get up in the morning and say we're going to spend more money or less money. If that scenario sounds eerily reminiscent of the early 2000s.com bust. There are definite similarities, but unlike, say, pets.com, the Mag 7 are actually making money right now, like ungodly amounts of money. Nelson Yu heads equities at Alliance Bernstein. These are companies that have very, very healthy balance sheets. Investors have plowed money into the Mag 7 because they think AI is going to be the next big thing. But Rob Arnott at the investment firm Research Affiliate says even if those investors are right about the tech, they could be wrong on the timing. Technological revolutions generally happen slower than anticipated. Humans, by their very nature, embrace change gradually.
Kate Dargan Marquis
They don't like it crammed down their throats.
Kai Rysdal
The Internet did not take over the world overnight. Maybe the robots won't either. I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.
Kate Dargan Marquis
We will not cram anything down your throats. We will, however, offer you a podcast. If you miss something on the Air, Marketplace.org is where you can get it. Or of course, the platform of your choice. Just follow us. Coming up, temperature controlled environment and guys running around in shorts in the wintertime building stuff. I guess construction just ain't what it used to be, huh? First though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials gained 358 points today. That is 9. 10% 42,297. The NASDAQ went the other way, down 73 points, about 4, 10% 19,000 to 88. The S&P 500 ticked up 9 points. Two 10% 58 and 36 there. Oil prices hit a four month high today on predictions for broader sanctions on Russian oil that could squeeze supply internationally. Brent crude jumped 1.3%, $80.80 a barrel. U.S. west Texas Intermediate, the American benchmark increased 2.3 quarters of 1%, 2.3 quarters of 1%. What is that? How about 2 1/4% today? Kai 7866 a barrel. Tech stocks, as I mentioned, took a tumble. Nvidia sank 2%. Meta dipped 1 and 2, 10% today. The dollar rose yet again following Friday's strong jobs report. The index, which measures the dollar against a basket of different currencies, added about a quarter percent today at its peak. Bond prices down. The Yield on the 10 year t note increase of 4.7 niner percent. You are listening to Marketplace.
Kai Rysdal
This Marketplace podcast is supported by Gusto. Let your employees know you've got their back by signing up for Gusto. For payroll and HR. More than 300,000 small business owners use Gusto. They offer benefits like health insurance, employee onboarding and more. Get your payroll taxes filed, deductions calculated and your Team paid fast. No more pain, just the joy of running your business. Get three months free when you go to Gusto.com marketplace that's Gusto.com marketplace Hey everybody, it's Kai.
Kate Dargan Marquis
Listen, is it time to upgrade your car? Give it new life by donating it to Marketplace? We'll use the proceeds to bring you more news about finance and the economy and how they affect you. Let us turn your old car into a donation to power the journalism you rely on. Go to marketplace.orgvehicle to donate your car today. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. The Marketplace acronym of the day today is cafe. That stands for Corporate Average Fuel Economy, of course. And yes, CAFE is how you say it. Those are federal fuel efficiency requirements for cars and trucks by model year 2026, for instance, current CAFE standards say the industry is supposed to reach an average of 49 miles per gallon. Between now and model year 2026, though, there is going to be a change in who's in charge of federal regulations, and CAFE standards are in the sights of the president elect. It's important to point out here that presidents have tinkered with federal fuel standards for years. But before it happens again, Marketplace's Henry Epp looks at why we have them in the first place and how they have changed the kinds of vehicles we drive.
Kai Rysdal
The story of the CAFE standards starts in the early 70s with the first oil crisis. In 1973, OPEC countries cut off oil exports to the United States. That caused huge lines at gas stat and a spike in oil prices.
Justin Ho
And so the idea was to improve the fuel economy of our cars so that we'd be less susceptible to availability shocks from these markets.
Kai Rysdal
Rebecca Chez is an assistant professor at Purdue University. Back then, vehicles on average only got about 13 miles to the gallon. So Congress passed what became the CAFE standards to require car companies to improve that metric. They took effect in 1978 and quickly became a political football. More than a decade later, they came up in one of the 1992 presidential debates. Here's then President George H.W. bush.
Justin Ho
I wondered when Governor Clinton was talking to the auto workers whether he talked about his and Senator Gore's favoring CAFE standards as a fuel efficiency standards of 40 miles per gallon that would break.
Kai Rysdal
The auto industry and throw a lot of people out of work. Beyond their role as a political talking point, the standards have had an effect. According to the Environmental protection agency, in 2023, average fuel economy across all vehic was 27 miles per gallon, more than double what it was in 1975 again Rebecca Chez @ Purdue.
Justin Ho
We've seen this incredible improvement in the fuel economy of our vehicles. They've gotten safer over time. We've saved a lot of energy and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of that period.
Kai Rysdal
But the standards have had some unintended consequences partly because of that A for average in the CAFE acronym, the standards average the fuel efficiency of all the new vehicles each company sells, says Kenneth Gilling, a professor at the Yale School of the Environment.
Justin Ho
Some of them might be above the.
Kai Rysdal
Standard, some of them might be below the standard, but they're supposed to average out. A somewhat recent example, Gillingham says, is the plug in hybrid Chevy Volt from gm. Each Chevy Volt that was sold permitted them to sell some number of other gas guzzling larger vehicles. And carmakers have been able to sell even more gas guzzlers due to a change to the standards made in the early 80s, says David Zipper, a senior fellow at the MIT Mobility Initiative. There was an element of skewed incentives because of what I would call the light truck loophole. That loophole, as he calls it, created one standard for passenger cars think sedans and another, less strict standard for light trucks, which include SUVs. And companies started making and selling more of them. Zipper argues those changes helped push drivers into bigger and bigger vehicles over time. Now we have larger vehicles on American roads than we otherwise would have, and that creates some serious problems around safety and around infrastructure. Meanwhile, the standards have shifted under different presidents. Car companies saw them rise under President Barack Obama here announcing the change in 2011. By 2025, the average fuel economy of their vehicles will nearly double to almost 55 miles per gallon. Then in 2017, former and future President Donald Trump said he'd roll them back.
Kate Dargan Marquis
We're going to work on the CAFE standards so you can make cars in America again.
Kai Rysdal
And campaigning in 2019, President Joe Biden vowed to bring them back up.
Kate Dargan Marquis
I think we should raise the CAFE standards, bring them back to where they were, which would have saved 12 billion.
Justin Ho
Gallons of oil to begin with and move beyond.
Kai Rysdal
That's a lot of back and forth, says Chris Douglas at the University of Michigan, Flint. That makes it difficult for automakers to plan for the long term because every four years the administration changes and that changes the mileage standards. Douglas thinks that uncertainty is likely to continue as Trump is coming back to office, but is term limited so the standards could change once again four years from now. I'm Henry AP for Marketplace.
Kate Dargan Marquis
In some parts of the country, housing has become so expensive that employers are Stepping in to help their workers. In Jackson, Wyoming, a state agency has found a way to stretch its limited dollars. They're turning to modular homes built in factories and often bigger and more customizable than mobile homes. And once they're built, kind of like Legos assembled section by section, they're permanent. Hannah Merzbach from the Mountain west news bureau has our story.
Justin Ho
Clark and Danielle Johnson are trying to pack up boxes in the messy living room of their Jackson, wyoming duplex. Their two kids, 2 and 4 years old, run around and get in the way.
Kai Rysdal
Do you have the stool too, or just the chair?
Justin Ho
Just that they're packing up kitchen stuff. Like silverware and spices?
Kai Rysdal
Yeah, all the little random bits and pieces that you don't know which box to throw them in and they'll be lost forever.
Justin Ho
Clark is a biologist for Wyoming Game and Fish, and his family is moving into the agency's new modular employee housing. Their rent will be the same, about $2,500 a month. The new place could rent for double that in the Jackson market and is three times as big as this one.
Kai Rysdal
Kind of see everything from where you're standing, but two bedrooms, bathroom, we've got kind of just two little closets and then a little living room and kitchen.
Justin Ho
The Johnsons might have left Jackson had subsidized housing not been an option. This 10,000 person mountain town has made headlines for rents that are just as high as New York City's. So some employers are trying to increase affordable housing stock. They pay for construction and then rent to employees at below market rates. They're building modular homes.
Kate Dargan Marquis
I mean, it's the same style of construction as stick build. It just happens to be in a shop.
Justin Ho
Loren Wooden is the chief engineer at Wyoming Game and Fish. He says it's hard to build in Jackson in winter weather, but factory construction speeds up the schedule.
Kate Dargan Marquis
Temperature controlled environment and guys running around in shorts in the wintertime building stuff. Instead of being all covered up in car hearts and dealing with snow all.
Justin Ho
The time, Pre built homes bypass the challenge of trying to find local construction workers. And modulars can cost less. Wyoming Game and Fish saved more than $5 million on seven buildings, according to the architect Greg Mason.
Kai Rysdal
Because of bulk construction, the raw materials of lumber and all that stuff, they tend to get a much better deal for all products.
Justin Ho
Modular construction makes up less than 7% of new commercial and residential buildings in North Americ, according to the Modular Building Institute. But that number has steadily been growing. The tiny home revolution increased interest, and the quality has come a long way from your classic 70s double wide manufactured home.
Kate Dargan Marquis
And everything comes out now with some.
Kai Rysdal
Really nice marble or stone countertops.
Justin Ho
The town of Kemmerer, Wyoming, is trucking in about 90 units to house workers for a new nuclear plant. And in Colorado and Michigan, state governments are incentivizing new projects with loans and grants for modular home companies. Still, the cost benefit doesn't always pan out for, say, just one single family home. And there are still some stigmas to overcome. When Danielle and Clark Johnson first learned that their new place would be modular, they weren't completely sold.
Kai Rysdal
I was like, well, what's it going to be like? Gonna look like a trailer house of some sort, which they definitely don't.
Justin Ho
But on move in day, Clark Johnson says their new place looks like a typical house.
Kai Rysdal
If I hadn't have seen them come in on pieces, I wouldn't really think that they're modulars.
Justin Ho
The kids are exploring all the open floor space. There are three bedrooms, a fenced in backyard, a walk in pantry, even a laundry room.
Kai Rysdal
Way, way, way more space than we have been used to being in for the last eight years.
Justin Ho
I think now that all the furniture and boxes are moved in. Next up, getting the kids to settle into bed and digging out the silverware. In Jackson, Wyoming, I'm Hannah Merzbach from Marketplace.
Kate Dargan Marquis
This final note on the way out today. It has been, as you know, a rough week or so here in Los Angeles. Angeles. And if the wind forecasts are right, it could be another rough couple of days. And I want to be clear. My family and I are among the very lucky ones. Friends of ours, my kids, teachers, colleagues of mine here at Marketplace have lost nearly everything. But I had a thought as I was waiting for coffee in the breakfast line at the Hampton Inn on Thursday morning. We try on this program to make people smarter about this economy, to help them understand why it matters. Thing is, there's no straight ahead Marketplace angle to a story like this. No moment where a listener is going to say, ah, now I understand why the trade gap or corporate earnings or the inner musings of Jay Powell matter to me. We will, of course, talk about the economics of wildfires and the recovery to come. But as I waited last Thursday for the hotel staff to refill the coffee machine and without losing sight of the dead or the destruction, it occurred to me that no small part of this story is about the people doing the work to take care of the rest of us, the first responders who've come from all over, all of the staff at all of the evacuation hotels, the small businesses and the restaurants nearby. When we got back into our house this weekend, there was new mail waiting for us and a wildfire evacuation zone. I mean, it was mostly bills, but there was mail. People had been working, taking care of us. Our daily production team who was working last week while I was out includes Andy Corbin, Nicholas guillaume, Maria Hollenhorst, Iru Ekpanobi, Sarah Leeson, Shaun McHenry and Sophia Terenzio and Kyle Rysdal. We'll be back tomorrow. This is apm.
Justin Ho
Hi, this is Julie from Centennial, Colorado. I listen to Marketplace on my drive.
Kai Rysdal
Home from all my 3 to midnight ER shifts.
Justin Ho
Kai and the gang keep me awake.
Kai Rysdal
And interested for my 30 minute drive.
Justin Ho
For someone not in the financial field, it's a fantastic synopsis of all things business and economics. I love the commitment to showcasing a steady stream of brilliant and articulate women who are experts in their field. Join me in supporting Marketplace with a gift today. Go to marketplace.org donate.
Marketplace Podcast Summary: Fuel Inefficiency Hosted by Kai Rysdal | Release Date: January 14, 2025
Hosts & Guests:
Overview: The episode opens with a poignant discussion on the severe wildfire situation in Los Angeles. With over two dozen fatalities, 12,000 structures destroyed, and tens of thousands displaced, the magnitude of the disaster is underscored. The conversation highlights the monumental efforts of approximately 14,000 firefighters battling the fires Palisades and Eaton.
Key Discussions:
Technological Advancements in Fire Detection:
Infrastructure and Government Role:
Speed and Scale of Response:
Conclusions: The segment concludes with a mutual acknowledgment of the complexities in combating wildfires, emphasizing that while technology plays a crucial role, community involvement and sustainable infrastructure are equally vital.
Hosts:
Overview: The financial segment discusses the unprecedented concentration of market value in the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants—Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, and Alphabet. These companies now account for over one-third of the S&P 500's total value, raising concerns about market stability and economic implications.
Key Discussions:
Impact of Market Concentration:
Financial Health of the Magnificent Seven:
Historical Comparisons and Future Outlook:
Conclusions: The segment underscores the precarious balance in having a significant portion of the market tied to a few tech giants. While their innovations drive growth, the potential for market instability remains a concern, especially if AI investments falter.
Hosts & Guests:
Overview: The discussion traces the history, impact, and ongoing political debates surrounding CAFE standards—federal fuel efficiency requirements for vehicles. The segment explores how these standards have shaped the automotive industry and the challenges posed by fluctuating political priorities.
Key Discussions:
Historical Context and Purpose:
Impact on Fuel Efficiency and Emissions:
Political Fluctuations and Industry Challenges:
Future Projections and Recommendations:
Conclusions: The segment concludes that while CAFE standards have significantly improved vehicle fuel efficiency and reduced emissions, political volatility poses challenges for sustained progress. A stable regulatory environment is essential for the automotive industry's strategic planning and for achieving long-term environmental goals.
Hosts & Guests:
Overview: Amidst skyrocketing housing costs in Jackson, Wyoming, this segment explores how modular homes are providing an affordable solution for employees. These factory-built homes offer customization, speed in construction, and cost savings, addressing the housing crisis in high-demand areas.
Key Discussions:
Case Study: The Johnson Family:
Advantages of Modular Construction:
Scalability and Market Growth:
Challenges and Perceptions:
Conclusions: Modular homes present a viable solution to the housing affordability crisis in high-demand regions like Jackson. With benefits in cost, speed, and customization, along with improving public perception, modular construction is poised to become a more prominent player in addressing housing shortages.
Hosts:
Overview: The episode winds down with heartfelt reflections on the recent wildfires, the resilience of the Marketplace team, and listener feedback highlighting the program's impact.
Key Points:
Personal Impact of Wildfires:
Listener Testimonials:
Team Acknowledgment:
Conclusions: The episode closes with a reminder of the human stories intertwined with economic and business news. The Marketplace team expresses gratitude for listener support and reiterates their commitment to delivering insightful and relevant content.
Notable Quotes:
Kate Dargan Marquis ([00:51]): “We are still on fire watch here in Los Angeles… monumental effort for some 14,000 firefighters using all the tools at their disposal.”
Justin Ho ([02:24]): “Firesat… will ultimately launch 52 satellites that circle the globe every 15 minutes. It will give us fire detections down to just a few meters in size.”
Michael Hartnett ([10:49]): “This level of stock market concentration is basically unprecedented.”
Rob Arnott ([12:21]): “Technological revolutions generally happen slower than anticipated.”
Rebecca Chez ([16:19]): “Congress passed what became the CAFE standards to require car companies to improve that metric.”
Clark Johnson ([24:26]): “I was like, well, what's it going to be like? Gonna look like a trailer house of some sort, which they definitely don't.”
Final Thoughts: The "Fuel Inefficiency" episode of Marketplace delves deep into pressing economic and social issues, from the immediate challenges of wildfires and their economic repercussions to the evolving landscapes of financial markets and housing solutions. Through expert interviews and real-life stories, the podcast offers listeners a comprehensive understanding of the complexities shaping today's economy and society.