How low can it go?

Summary

Marketplace: "How Low Can It Go?" – Detailed Summary

Release Date: February 19, 2025
Host: Kai Ryssdal

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1. Tariffs and Inflation: Navigating Economic Uncertainty

Timestamp: 01:26 – 04:30

The episode opens with host Kai Ryssdal addressing the persistent threat of tariffs under the early days of the second Trump administration. Ryssdal highlights the ongoing discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the implications of tariffs on inflation. The central question revolves around whether tariffs will cause a temporary spike in prices or lead to sustained inflationary pressures.

Kristen Schwab, Marketplace’s economic correspondent, delves into the complexities of predicting the impact of tariffs. She references economist Stephanie Kelton from Stony Brook University, who emphasizes the necessity of understanding the specific nature of the tariffs to forecast their effects accurately. Schwab explains that the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and the possibility of a trade war complicate the Federal Reserve’s strategy to manage inflation.

Key Insights:

• Ken Kuttner, a former Fed staffer, suggests that the Fed is initially trying to view the tariff-induced price spikes as transitory.
• However, if consumers perceive the price increases as the beginning of a trend, it could rekindle inflationary expectations.
• Randy Kroszner, ex-Federal Reserve Governor, points out that rising wage demands could further exacerbate inflation, prompting the Fed to adjust interest rates accordingly.

Notable Quote:

“We don’t know if all the proposed tariffs will go through or if they’ll lead to a trade war and more taxes.” – Kristen Schwab [02:52]

2. Unemployment Rates: The Quest for the Lowest Numbers

Timestamp: 04:30 – 09:58

Transitioning to the labor market, Ryssdal presents data indicating that the U.S. unemployment rate has decreased to 4%, a historically low figure. Mitchell Hartman, Marketplace’s reporter, explores the feasibility and implications of pushing unemployment rates even lower.

Hartman interviews Julia Pollack of ZipRecruiter, who asserts that achieving an unemployment rate as low as 1.5% is not unthinkable. However, historical data shows that the national unemployment rate has rarely dipped below 2.5%.

Challenges Highlighted:

• Claudia Sahm, former Fed economist, identifies structural barriers such as education deficits, training gaps, and discrimination that prevent certain demographic groups from attaining full employment.
• Betsey Stevenson from the University of Michigan introduces the concept of frictional unemployment—the natural churn in the job market—which helps maintain a baseline unemployment rate. She explains that some level of frictional unemployment is beneficial, indicating a dynamic and healthy labor market.
• Heidi Shierholz at the Economic Policy Institute suggests that technological advancements could reduce frictional unemployment by better matching workers with employers.

Potential Risks:

• Extremely low unemployment rates (below 2.5%) could lead to labor shortages, prompting significant wage increases and subsequent inflation.
• The Federal Reserve might respond by raising interest rates to curb inflation, potentially driving unemployment up again.

Notable Quote:

“Unemployment could fall lower than it has in the last 70 years, maybe as low as one and a half percent. But if it ever does, we should be very worried that something’s seriously wrong with the US Economy.” – Mitchell Hartman [09:25]

3. The Streaming Economy: Challenges Facing Twitch and Content Creators

Timestamp: 09:58 – 17:04

The discussion shifts to the evolving landscape of streaming platforms, focusing on Twitch. Nathan Grayson, author of Stream: The Triumphs and Turmoils of Twitch and the Stars behind the Screen, provides an in-depth look at the difficulties content creators face in maintaining profitability and relevance.

Key Points:

• Originally centered around video game streaming, Twitch has diversified into various content genres, including travel, politics, and lifestyle broadcasts.
• The non-exclusivity policy forces top Twitch streamers to diversify their presence across multiple platforms like YouTube and Instagram to mitigate the risk of algorithm changes or platform shifts.
• Consistency is paramount for streamers; maintaining regular streaming schedules is essential to retain viewer loyalty and financial support.

Challenges for Streamers:

• The necessity to be online for extended hours (8-10 hours or more daily) to sustain viewer engagement and income.
• Balancing the demands of maintaining an engaging online persona with personal well-being, as highlighted by examples of streamers experiencing burnout.

Business Model Struggles:

• Despite the popularity of streaming, platforms like Twitch have struggled to achieve profitability, leading to layoffs and reconsiderations of their business strategies.
• The competitive social media ecosystem demands that content creators constantly adapt to survive, making long-term sustainability a significant concern.

Notable Quote:

“If I don’t, if I’m not consistent enough, because that’s the big thing on Twitch. It’s just like being there every day, streaming during the same time segment. There’s always the thought of if I stop or if I take a sustained break, then everyone will leave.” – Nathan Grayson [14:12]

4. Corporate Share Buybacks: Samsung’s Strategic Move

Timestamp: 20:13 – 23:18

Kelly Wells from Marketplace analyzes Samsung’s recent announcement to buy back and cancel over $2 billion worth of its shares. This strategic decision aims to increase the value of remaining shares by reducing the overall share count.

Economic Implications:

• Connell Fullencamp, an economics professor at Duke University, explains that share buybacks signal to the market that the company believes its shares are undervalued.
• Ari Schwaiter from the University of Michigan adds that canceling shares can lead to an increased value per share, benefiting investors through capital gains taxed at lower rates compared to dividends.

Potential Concerns:

• Hsieh, an unnamed economist, cautions that the funds allocated for buybacks could have been invested in growth opportunities such as acquisitions or expanding production capabilities.
• The move may indicate that Samsung finds fewer profitable expansion opportunities, potentially signaling stagnation despite being a well-established company.

Notable Quote:

“Traditionally, this has been a way for companies to try to signal to the markets, hey, we think our shares are undervalued.” – Connell Fullencamp [21:49]

5. Refugee Resettlement: Impact of Policy Changes in Houston

Timestamp: 23:18 – 28:08

The episode addresses the Trump administration's halt of the U.S. Refugee Resettlement Program and the consequent freeze on funding for refugee processing and services. Elizabeth Trouble from Marketplace reports on the tangible effects of these policy changes in Houston.

Program Highlights:

• The YMCA International Services in Houston had been pivotal in assisting refugees through programs like free driver’s education, crucial for integration and independence.
• Refugees, particularly women from Afghanistan, benefited significantly from obtaining driver's licenses, enhancing their mobility and employment opportunities.

Consequences of Policy Cuts:

• Suspension of resettlement programs has led to layoffs and halted services, disrupting the progress of refugees striving to integrate into American society.
• Zenobia Lai, head of the Houston Immigration Legal Services Collaborative, emphasizes that refugee programs offer more than safety—they provide a pathway to rebuilding lives in the U.S.

Personal Stories:

• Farnaz Azimi, a refugee in Houston, shares her transformative experience of gaining independence through obtaining a driver’s license, highlighting the critical role of such programs in fostering self-sufficiency.

Notable Quote:

“The refugee resettlement program is actually a beacon of hope about America, what America is. We are losing a lot by cutting the program.” – Zenobia Lai [27:50]

6. Economic Tidbits: Rising Cocoa Prices Affect Consumers

Timestamp: 28:08 – End

In the closing segment, Ryssdal touches on the impact of rising cocoa prices on consumers, particularly around Valentine’s Day. Mondelez and Hershey's announce that due to increased costs of cocoa, chocolates are expected to be 30-50% more expensive. This price hike reflects broader trends in commodity pricing and consumer goods.

Notable Quote:

“Consumers will need to get used to chocolate that is 30, 40, 50% more expensive than it used to be.” – Mondelez CEO [28:35]

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Conclusion

In this episode of Marketplace, Kai Ryssdal navigates through a multifaceted economic landscape, from the nuances of tariffs and their inflationary impacts to the intricate challenges within the streaming economy. The discussion on unemployment delves into the delicate balance required to maintain a healthy labor market without triggering inflation. Additionally, corporate strategies like Samsung’s share buybacks and the human stories behind refugee resettlement programs paint a comprehensive picture of the current U.S. economic and social climate. The episode concludes with a relatable note on rising consumer costs, tying together the broader themes of economic fluctuation and its direct effects on everyday life.

For more insights and detailed economic analysis, subscribe to the Marketplace newsletter at Marketplace.org.

Transcript

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[Kai Rysdal]

On the program. Today we can't not do tariffs. Sorry, we don't make the rules. We'll do streaming video and the unemployment rate as well. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kyle roosevelt. Tuesday, today the 18th of February. Good as always to have you along everybody. We begin today with the observation that we are in week five of the second Trump administration, which is to say it is very early days yet. But all the same, some familiar economic themes are solidifying. First among them the ever present threat of more Trump tariffs. We start there because this is one of those weeks where various and sundry Federal Reserve officials get, well, chatty with remarks scheduled from regional Fed presidents and from members of the Board of Governors in Washington. And the question they are trying to answer as as they steer this economy through the chaos is this do tariffs lead to one time price increases and so maybe aren't that big a deal? Or do they jumpstart inflation, broader price increases over time, which as we all know is a much bigger Deal Marketplace's Kristen Schwab sorts out the Fed's strategy.

[Kristen Schwab]

To predict how tariffs might affect inflation. Economist Stephanie Kelton at Stony Brook University says, we need to know exactly what the tariffs will be.

[TurboTax Representative]

It's so tough because we're trying to.

[Kai Rysdal]

Have a conversation about something where there's just, you know, nobody knows.

[Kristen Schwab]

We don't know if all the proposed tariffs will go through or if they'll lead to a trade war and more taxes. So Ken Kuttner, a former Fed staffer, says at first the Fed is going.

[Kai Rysdal]

To try to look past that transitory inflation spike that will be created by the tariffs.

[Kristen Schwab]

Unless consumers think that price spike is just the beginning.

[Kai Rysdal]

People started thinking, well, you know, price of tomatoes went up, everything else is going to start going up. And so we're like returning to an inflationary environment.

[Kristen Schwab]

Returning is a key word here. Years of inflation have primed us to think higher tomato prices mean higher prices for cars and clothes. And with tariffs that might appear to be true since they cover many categories of goods and their prices will rise kind of all at once. Randy Kroszner, a former governor of the Federal Reserve Board says a sign workers believe this is inflation is if they ask for raises.

[Nathan Grayson]

Typically the Fed will respond to something.

[Kristen Schwab]

That it sees as an ongoing process.

[Nathan Grayson]

You know, if wage increases continue to be very high and that adds to.

[Kai Rysdal]

A cost of production and that will.

[Nathan Grayson]

Lead to higher prices down the line.

[Kristen Schwab]

It's why, regardless of where the tariffs land, the Fed's messaging will be important. Here's Stephanie Kelton again.

[Kai Rysdal]

If the inflation rate starts to move.

[TurboTax Representative]

Up for whatever reason, the Fed is going to feel compelled to respond in.

[Kristen Schwab]

Some way with a longer than anticipated pause or even a raise to signal to consumers that it is serious about getting inflation down to 2%. I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace Wall Street.

[Kai Rysdal]

After a three day weekend, traders were well rested and still apparently unconcerned. We'll have the details when we do the number. I'm going to throw some data points at you en route to this next story. Nice and slow of course, because they are important. Unemployment in these United States was 3.5% in February of 2020. That is heading into the pandemic. In the post plague recovery it got down to 3.4%. That was April 2023, a more than 50 year low and it now sits. Unemployment does at 4%. Still historically very low. But could it go even lower? 2%, a percent and a half and wouldn't that be great? Maybe, but also maybe not Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman takes it from there.

[Mitchell Hartman]

So this question, how low can unemployment in the US Go? Was prompted by a story I did recently. I was explaining why unemployment couldn't keep falling as rapidly in the post pandemic period as it had before the pandemic, because that would have meant unemployment falling to 1.5%, which I said economists will tell you pretty much can't happen. And then I heard from fellow Marketplace reporter Stephanie Hughes.

[Nathan Grayson]

I know that below 4% is really good, but why can't we get to 1.5%?

[Mitchell Hartman]

And right off the bat, I found an economist, Julia Pollack at ZipRecruiter, who says it's not unthinkable.

[TurboTax Representative]

We know from some states and cities in America that very low unemployment rates are possible. In 2024, South Dakota had an unemployment rate of just 1.9%, but at the.

[Mitchell Hartman]

National level, it's only ever fallen as low as 2.5% for two months in 1953. One reason it hasn't gone lower, says former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, is that certain demographic groups face barriers to full employment, including lack of education and training and discrimination. Black unemployment has historically been about twice as high as white unemployment. In South Dakota, unemployment on some Native American reservations is 80% or higher.

[TurboTax Representative]

There's mismatches of the skills that workers have and the geographies where they are, and that is the limit on the national unemployment rate. These pockets of structurally much higher unemployment.

[Mitchell Hartman]

There's another kind of unemployment that keeps the rate well above 1.5%, says Betsey Stevenson at the University of Michigan, something.

[TurboTax Representative]

That economists call frictional unemployment, the flies in the ointment that prevent workers and jobs from finding each other right away.

[Mitchell Hartman]

It's the unavoidable churn in good times and bad, as workers leave one job to find another or graduate school and start looking. And we actually want some frictional unemployment. It's a sign of a healthy labor market, says economist Michael Strain at the American Enterprise Institute.

[TurboTax Representative]

Being unemployed for a few weeks and.

[Kai Rysdal]

Finding the best match you can.

[Nathan Grayson]

You're more productive, you're contributing more to.

[Kai Rysdal]

The firm, to the economy means that.

[Kristen Schwab]

You'Re earning a higher wage.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Now we might develop better technology to match workers and employers faster, which could reduce frictional unemployment a bit, and that would be a good thing, says Heidi Shierholz at the Economic Policy Institute.

[TurboTax Representative]

When unemployment is low, that's great for workers and the economy, but it actually can get too low.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Economists pretty much agree. Anything lower than 2 1/2 to 3% risks extreme labor shortages developing in the.

[TurboTax Representative]

Economy, firms who have job openings, they're just basically poaching workers from other companies because there's hardly any unemployed people to hire. That requires big wage increases, and then.

[Mitchell Hartman]

That translates into big price increases, in other words, inflation. The Fed would raise interest rates to fight it, driving unemployment back up again. And it's not only a hot labor market that can lead to super low unemployment, says Betsey Stevenson.

[TurboTax Representative]

A low unemployment rate could be associated with a very stagnant labor market where there are no jobs, so there's no point looking.

[Mitchell Hartman]

This is her tech driven nightmare scenario where AI and robots are able to do the work of most humans cheaper than we can do it ourselves.

[TurboTax Representative]

Human wages are pushed so low that maybe people don't even want to work. Maybe they can't even survive while working.

[Mitchell Hartman]

So bottom line, unemployment could fall lower than it has in the last 70 years, maybe as low as one and a half percent. But if it ever does, we should be very worried that something's seriously wrong with the US Economy. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Market.

[Kai Rysdal]

We all know by now that streaming is a business model for the big, highly produced content streamers, Netflix and all the rest, sure. But also for the content creator streamers too. YouTube, of course, but also for companies like Twitch. And the reality is, as Twitch demonstrates, that that content creator business model is hard. There have been rounds of layoffs and as of yet, no profit for parent company Amazon and for the millions of people who stream on it and either are or aspire to make a living from said streaming. Well, that's not easy either. Nathan Grayson's new book about the company is called Stream the Triumphs and Turmoils of Twitch and the Stars behind the Screen. Thanks for coming on the program.

[Nathan Grayson]

Thanks for having me on.

[Kai Rysdal]

For those unfamiliar what is Twitch if you can sort of encapsulate it for me.

[Nathan Grayson]

Yeah, so Twitch is a live streaming platform that originally was kind of dedicated to video games to, you know, people playing video games for audiences to watch, but has since expanded in all sorts of different directions. So people will, you know, broadcast themselves out and about, you know, in their hometowns or while traveling doing things of that nature. Some people broadcast like talking about politics and news. You know, it's really for pretty much everything at this point.

[Kai Rysdal]

Well, the interesting thing about Twitch, to me now and this, you get to this later in the book and it's, I mean, it's a totally fascinating story, but what has happened is that a lot of Twitch stars that, you know, top layer, if you will, they're now on multiple platforms, and Twitch has sort of given up on exclusivity, and these stars realize they have to be on multiple platforms, and Twitch has recognized it, and it becomes sort of a business model challenge for them now.

[Nathan Grayson]

Well, and, you know, a lot of that is a result of just how the social media ecosystem has evolved in general. A lot of people on, say, TikTok, are also on YouTube, are also on Instagram. Kind of everybody now doesn't put all their eggs in one basket because they've learned if you do that, there's always a chance that that platform could shift or change massively, or they could switch up their algorithm or something like that, and then suddenly things that you made that used to perform well no longer find an audience.

[Kai Rysdal]

I probably should have started with this, but if you were going to describe the content creation ecosystem to somebody who's reasonably online but is not on Twitch, doesn't follow many of those sort of streaming platforms. It's huge. And yet it's not like in the American business mainstream conversation, you know?

[Nathan Grayson]

Yeah, let's see, how would I describe it in terms of appeal? A lot of people follow their favorite content creators in part because these people feel relatable to them and they're like, yeah, this person, they do feel kind of like a friend. But then you kind of expand that out into the larger ecosystem and it becomes almost like reality tv. There are all these little people with all these little dramas that you're keeping up with constantly. And then within all of that, everybody is kind of a small business owner. Right, right. Where they are effectively. Well, not effectively. Literally, they are contractors under the various major platforms that pay them out, often via ad money and things of that nature. They're all performing what is a job, but it's also a form of entertainment.

[Kai Rysdal]

Right? Yeah, no, look, that's really good. And as you were offering that description, an example occurred to me, and it's about the consumers of the content. We say on this program all the time the American consumer is fickle. My wife and the one child who's still living at home with us were introduced by our oldest son to this guy on YouTube who, like, treks through the Alaskan wilderness. Used to be like a traffic attorney in Virginia, and now he just goes out and does stuff like makes snow forts and teaches you how to survive in the Alaskan wilderness. And we watched it, like, pretty steadily for like two weeks, and then we just kind of clicked off. And I imagine that's what consumers of Twitch and all the other Platforms do, right? They're like, oh, yeah, this is interesting. But then I'm going to go look at this thing over here and then I'm going to look at this thing over here. And that becomes a business challenge for those content creators.

[Nathan Grayson]

And it's kind of like the, the sword of Damocles always hanging right there is like if I don't, if I'm not consistent enough, because that's the big thing on Twitch. It's just like being there every day, streaming during the same time segment. There's always the thought of if I stop or if I take a sustained break, then everyone will leave. They'll find somebody else to either follow or watch or crucially give their money to. Because, you know, if you're not around for like a week, a lot of viewers are going to say, okay, well then why am I paying this person $5 per month?

[Kai Rysdal]

Right? You know, something you said a minute ago resonates here. This is a job for these people and that's how they make their living and that's why they keep grinding it out, even though it can be really, you know, you've got examples in this book of people having health problems and all kinds of stuff, but they get up and they do this because it's their job.

[Nathan Grayson]

Well, yeah, exactly. But in this case, like, you know, it's a different kind of job. For one, you are in front of an audience. You are this version of your personality that is dialed up to 11, and that takes a lot of energy. But a lot of these streamers are doing it for 8 to 10 hours per day or in some cases even more than that. In addition to that, being a streamer or a content creator also means maintaining all sorts of relationships with various people, with various brands and whatnot that you're doing deals with. It is one of those jobs that, you know, if you let it, and it's very easy to let it because the incentive structures are there, it can become all consuming. Some streamers. I remember a couple years ago, xqc, who's one of the bigger streamers on Twitch, and now Kick, talked about buying a car and then was like, yeah, but I never use it because I don't have time. I'm always just streaming.

[Kai Rysdal]

Wow. I was going to ask you, just as the ender, I was going to ask you what happens to Twitch in five or ten years? And I. Well, see, that's kind of an unknowable thing, right? Because this whole ecosystem is changing so fast.

[Nathan Grayson]

No, I mean, it's really hard to say what happens to twitch in five or 10 years. Because for example, five years ago there was a really unprecedented moment for Twitch, which was the pandemic. And in 2020 and 2021 that was kind of like the Twitch boom. But all that is to say that it's not just the content creation ecosystem that is unpredictable, it's also the world. If God forbid, there's another pandemic, I think we're going to see a lot more people on Twitch again. Short of that, it's hard to say because Amazon wants Twitch to be profitable so much and because they've in the past couple of years laid off over a thousand people from a company that was only like a little bit over 2,000. That seems to suggest that the priority is just we need to make money. And you know, if that means this product suffers or loses relevance, well, that's tough.

[Kai Rysdal]

So be it. Yeah.

[Nathan Grayson]

Yeah.

[Kai Rysdal]

Nathan Grayson, his book is called Stream Big the Triumphs and Turmoils of Twitch and the Stars behind the Screen. Nathan, thanks a lot. Appreciate your time.

[Nathan Grayson]

Yeah, thank you.

[TurboTax Representative]

Coming up, that is the vehicle that connect them with the outside world.

[Kai Rysdal]

Sometimes the key to independence is a set of keys. First though, let's do the numbers. Dow industrials up 10 points today, basically unchanged. 44,556 on the blue chips. Nasdaq up 14 points, about a 10th percent there. 20,041s and P 514 points to the go to quarter percent 61 and 29. The National association of Homebuilders says homebuilder confidence is at a five month low. Some of that of course, uncertainty over the future pricing of imported materials. Where did we start the program today? Tariffs, isn't that right? Yes, yes, yes. West Fraser Timber Company grew 8, 10%. UFP Industries down 1.6% today. Ford Motor Company, Reuters reports is withholding stock bonuses from about half its middle managers in an effort to cut costs. Ford accelerated 1.2%. Bonds down. Yield on the 10 year T note rose 4.55%. The double nickel. You're listening to Marketplace.

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[Kai Rysdal]

Hi, I'm Kai Rysdal, the host of How We Survive. This season is all about the institution that shaped me, the US Military and how it could shape the future of climate tech. You've probably heard that 2024 was the hottest year on record, that wildfires devastated Los Angeles, and that the US Withdrew from the Paris agreement again. And while all that might feel pretty terrible, the climate crisis is not an inevitable reality. From simulated climate emergencies to microgrids and sustainable aviation fuel, we look at how the military is investing part of its $850 billion budget in a greener, more resilient future. Listen to How We Survive wherever you get your podcasts. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. Samsung, purveyor of, among other things, TVs and smartphones and laptops, revealed this morning it has bought back and is going to Cancel More than $2 billion worth of its shares of stock. Gonna make them just disappear? The upside of canceling shares is that the shares that are still trading are worth more. The definitely not upside of canceling shares is that it can be a bit of a tell of tough corporate times. Not for nothing, Samsung shares off 35% over the past year. Marketplace's Kelly Wells takes it from there.

[TurboTax Representative]

Usually when companies buy back their own shares, they hang on to what they buy so they can give them to employees or resell them later when they need a Connell Fullencamp, an economics professor at Duke University, says Canceling bought back shares is a bold statement.

[Nathan Grayson]

Traditionally, this has been a way for companies to try to signal to the markets, hey, we think our shares are.

[TurboTax Representative]

Undervalued, and canceling shares kind of solves that problem, says Ari Schwaiter, who teaches economics at the University of Michigan's business school.

[Kai Rysdal]

The overall value of Samsung is still.

[TurboTax Representative]

What it was, but the number of.

[Kai Rysdal]

Shares that exist in the world is less, and so the value per share.

[TurboTax Representative]

Will go up if the number of shares goes down and investors have a reason to prefer share cancellations to, say, offering a dividend, says Paul Shea, who teaches economics at Bates College.

[Nathan Grayson]

You don't pay a dividend tax rate on it. You pay a capital gains tax rate, which is lower for most people.

[TurboTax Representative]

But Hsieh says the billions of dollars that Samsung spent to buy the shares it's canceling is billions it did not spend on acquiring other companies or building new plants.

[Nathan Grayson]

So that could be a negative signal. But it could also just be that this is not a time where there's great opportunity for expansion.

[TurboTax Representative]

Hsieh says the cancellations would make him more nervous. For a younger company that's never turned a profit. With an older, more stable company like Samsung, he says, there's nothing wrong with returning money to shareholders this way. I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

The Trump White House has, among its other immigration related policies, stopped the US Refugee resettlement program and frozen funding for refugee processing and services. The caveat here, of course, is that by the time you hear this, the courts might have intervened on one side or the other. But the disruption of the refugee ecosystem that's happened just so far has already started to hit. The organizations that provide layoffs have started in cities like Baltimore and Phoenix and Houston, a hub for refugee resettlement. Houston is also where Marketplace's Elizabeth Trouble spent some time with the program, teaching a critical skill for anybody living and working there.

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Her commute by bus was roughly two hours each direction. Now it's around 35 minutes and she has the freedom and time to do other things.

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I'm leaving my home and I'm going to work and also I go to hospital and I'm drinking a cup of coffee or like I drink tea. So I go to chat with my friends.

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Getting a driver's license is a must for refugees and immigrants. That's why YMCA International Services in Houston has helped these drivers learn the rules of the road for free and in their native language.

[Kai Rysdal]

Buenos dias Nodos. How are you doing?

[Sponsor Representative]

In a recent class, Innocent Tuyerin Jire leads orientation for the driver's Ed program.

[Kai Rysdal]

We are going to learn how the process of obtaining driver's license.

[Sponsor Representative]

This class was just a few weeks ago. The program started in 2021 and it's helped around 550 people.

[Kai Rysdal]

First question is why do you feel like you need driver's license?

[Sponsor Representative]

The response is it's necessary, especially for work, which is why Tuyiren Jede is here to teach them about things like insurance and car seats for kids. Joanne Pantaleon supervised the program and says her clients were hired for new jobs and kept their jobs after getting their license. Through this program, which was a special especially popular among women, you empower women.

[TurboTax Representative]

By allowing them to get out of the home and doing things for themselves and not depending on their husband to do day to day activities.

[Sponsor Representative]

In particular, she says she's happy so many Afghan women signed up.

[TurboTax Representative]

Culturally, the women from the Afghan community stay at home. The fact that 100 Afghan women came to us learn how to drive tells me that they're on the path to integration.

[Sponsor Representative]

At Farnaz Azimi's house in West Houston, we sit cross legged in her living room on a red carpet. Cartoons are playing for her youngest. Her son Hafeez interprets Dari for us.

[Kai Rysdal]

He said that she's at home. In all three years that she's in.

[Sponsor Representative]

Here, Azimi's life has largely revolved around the home. While her husband works and kids go to school, she got her driver's license.

[Kai Rysdal]

To run everything by herself, to buy.

[Sponsor Representative]

Groceries, go to the gym and maybe one day get a job. She's one step closer with her new Texas driver's license. She goes to her purse to show it to me and smiles. How did you feel when you got the driver's license?

[Kai Rysdal]

She was so happy.

[Sponsor Representative]

Azimi already has her license, but there won't be new students anytime soon. YMCA just suspended the program and furloughed employees because of the pause on refugee resettlement. YMCA wouldn't comment further. So I talked with Zenobia Lai, who heads the Houston Immigration Legal Services Collaborative. She says resettlement programs and classes don't just give people the chance to flee violence.

[TurboTax Representative]

That is the vehicle that connect them with the outside world to independence. The refugee resettlement program is actually a beacon of hope about America, what America is. We are losing a lot by cutting the program.

[Sponsor Representative]

Without a change in policy, it's likely that program cuts and layoffs will continue. In Houston, I'm Elizabeth Trovall for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

This final note on the way out today, which comes with the hoping that you got your chocolate fix on Valentine's Day. Both Mondelez and Hershey's said today at a conference in New York that high and rising cocoa prices mean consumers are going to be paying more to satisfy their sweet tooth. Here is the quote from the Mondelez CEO consumers will need to get used to chocolate that is 30, 40, 50% more expensive than it used to be. Our Digital and On Demand team includes Kerry Barber, Jordan Mangi, Dylan Mietanen, Janet Wynn, Olga Oxman, Ellen Rollfus, Virginia K. Smith and Tony Wagner. Francesca Levy is the executive director of Digital and On Demand, and I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is apm. This economy can be complicated. That's why the Marketplace newsletter makes understanding it all simple. Get Smart takes on the week's biggest stories delivered to your inbox every Friday. No jargon, no hype, just economics you can use. Sign up [e-mail] subscribe.