Measuring uncertainty

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Episode Summary: "Measuring Uncertainty" Released: January 10, 2025 | Host: Kai Ryssdal (Guest Host: Amy Scott)

In this episode of Marketplace, host Amy Scott delves into pressing economic and business issues, exploring themes of uncertainty in various sectors—from artificial intelligence and national security to wildfires and the insurance crisis in California. The episode is structured into distinct segments, each addressing a unique aspect of uncertainty in the current economic landscape.

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1. U.S. AI Export Controls and National Security

Overview: As President Joe Biden's administration nears its end, significant developments are underway to regulate the export of U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) technology. The proposed rules aim to curb the distribution of AI chips to adversarial nations like China and Russia, highlighting the intersection of technology and national security.

Key Points:

• Purpose of the Rules: The new regulations are designed to prevent adversaries from accessing advanced AI chips that have both civilian and military applications.

• Industry Reaction: The tech industry, represented by figures such as Jason Oxman of the Information Technology Industry Council, has expressed discontent. Oxman criticized the regulations for not only restricting exports to nations of concern but also limiting access for U.S. allies, potentially undermining U.S. industrial dominance.

Notable Quotes:

• Gregory Allen (Center for Strategic and International Studies):
  “China is looking pretty stuck.” [01:25]

• Jason Oxman (Information Technology Industry Council):
  “But we're not just talking about limiting access to countries of concern. We're talking about limiting access to our allies around the world, forcing them to look elsewhere and undermining US industrial dominance.” [02:27]

Implications: While the Biden administration's efforts have successfully slowed China's technological advancements in AI, there is concern about potential retaliation from China, including export controls and sanctions against the U.S.

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2. California Wildfires and the Insurance Crisis

Overview: California faces one of the most devastating wildfire seasons on record, with economic damages projected to exceed $50 billion. This disaster underscores the state's ongoing homeowners insurance crisis, exacerbated by climate change and stringent regulatory measures.

Key Points:

• Insurance Market Strain: The Fair Plan, California's insurer of last resort, has seen its exposure surge from $50 billion in 2018 to over $450 billion by September 2024. This ninefold increase raises concerns about the system's capacity to handle catastrophic losses.

• Regulatory Challenges: California's tightly regulated insurance market, influenced by 1980s propositions, restricts insurers in setting competitive premiums and utilizing advanced catastrophe modeling. Recent reforms aim to attract more insurers back to the market, but large-scale disasters test these measures.

• Economic Impact: The insufficient capital cushion and non-competitive rate settings could result in indirect taxes on other California homeowners, spreading the financial burden.

Notable Quotes:

• Gregory Allen (Center for Strategic and International Studies):
  “The Fair Plan has grown from about $50 billion of exposure in 2018 up to over $450 billion of exposure as of this September.” [05:04]

• Gregory Allen:
  “It's a system where the commissioner of the system has been very clear about saying that the rates are not set in a competitive manner and they also don't have much of a capital cushion.” [05:04]

• Gregory Allen (on potential US retaliation):
  “China may retaliate with its own export controls and sanctions against the US including in New York.” [02:45]

Implications: The current insurance framework in California is struggling to adapt to the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires. Without significant policy interventions, the economic repercussions could extend beyond affected regions, impacting homeowners statewide.

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3. Measuring Economic Uncertainty

Overview: Uncertainty remains a pervasive theme in the economy, influencing markets, consumer behavior, and policy-making. This segment explores various methodologies economists use to quantify uncertainty and its broader implications.

Key Points:

• Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Developed by economist Nick Bloom, this index measures uncertainty by analyzing the frequency of uncertainty-related terms in news articles pertaining to the economy and policy. As of the latest data, uncertainty is twice the historical average despite a slight decrease from its peak in May 2020.

• Alternative Measures: Economists also consider financial market volatility, forecast error variations, and the impact on firm and household decision-making as indicators of uncertainty.

• Consequences of High Uncertainty: Elevated uncertainty can lead to reduced consumer spending and delayed business investments, creating a feedback loop that exacerbates economic instability.

Notable Quotes:

• Nick Bloom (Economist, Stanford):
  “You can survey people's sentiment to predict consumer spending.” [09:47]

• Laura Jackson Young (Economist, Bentley University):
  Discussed alternative measures such as market volatility and forecasting errors. [10:15]

• Gregory Allen:
  “Uncertainty breeds uncertainty, which is maybe why lately it kind of feels like everything has been uncertain all the time, forever.” [11:10]

Implications: Understanding and accurately measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for policymakers and businesses to make informed decisions. Persistent high levels of uncertainty may hinder economic growth and stability.

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4. Thailand's Economic Recovery and Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturing

Overview: Thailand's economy is gradually rebounding from severe flooding, with the government emphasizing the expansion of the electric vehicle (EV) sector as a key driver for future growth. This pivot aims to position Thailand as a significant player in the global EV supply chain.

Key Points:

• Shift to EV Production: With a 20% drop in overall vehicle production, Thailand is redirecting efforts towards EVs, supported by government incentives and strategic partnerships, particularly with Chinese investors like BYD.

• Challenges in Local Supply Chain: Despite policies requiring 40% local sourcing of EV parts, most components are still imported, limiting the development of a robust domestic supply chain.

• Economic Concerns: Local businesses fear that increased Chinese investment may not significantly benefit the broader Thai economy, as supply chains remain dominated by foreign entities.

Notable Quotes:

• Pavita Pananond (Professor of International Business, Thammasat University):
  “Chinese companies can set up their own suppliers and then import parts here without really creating the supply chain that the Japanese have helped create in Thailand.” [21:09]

• Grain Cry Teishakanon (Economist, Bangkok):
  “It's in its early stage, so most of the parts they are import.” [21:05]

• Rita Magaldi (Salesperson, Honda Motorcycle Dealership):
  “More Chinese EV investment is not a good thing because when Chinese brands come to pick up prices to sell more EVs, it hurts the Japanese car industry.” [22:35]

Implications: Thailand's strategic focus on EV manufacturing presents opportunities for economic revitalization. However, without a developed local supply chain and balanced foreign investment, the benefits may be unevenly distributed, potentially disadvantaging local industries.

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5. Sheer Ambrosia Bakery: A Success Story Amid Economic Uncertainty

Overview: Rita Magaldi, owner of Sheer Ambrosia Bakery in Salt Lake City, shares her journey of expanding from a home kitchen to a commercial space. Her story highlights resilience and strategic planning in the face of economic fluctuations.

Key Points:

• Business Growth: Transitioning to a commercial space and hiring employees allowed Rita to scale her operations and enhance customer experience.

• Customer Loyalty: Multigenerational customer relationships have fostered a strong community presence, with loyal patrons spanning from parents to grandchildren.

• Future Plans: During slower periods, Rita focuses on strategic initiatives such as expanding her customer base by engaging with hotels and local businesses.

Notable Quotes:

• Rita Magaldi:
  “I just thought to myself, yeah, I am part of their family traditions and it's just so exciting and heartwarming.” [24:30]

• Rita Magaldi:
  “More Chinese EV investment is not a good thing because when Chinese brands come to pick up prices to sell more EVs and it hurts the Japanese car industry.” [22:35]

Implications: Rita's experience underscores the importance of adaptability and community engagement for small businesses navigating economic uncertainties. Her proactive approach in strategic planning during downturns exemplifies effective business management.

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6. Tribute to Former President Jimmy Carter

Overview: The episode concludes with a heartfelt tribute to former President Jimmy Carter, highlighting his legacy and the economic policies he championed.

Key Points:

• Economic Contributions: Carter is remembered for efforts to cut the deficit, deregulate industries, and promote affordable goods, which have had lasting impacts on the economy.

• Legacy: The funeral service, held at the National Cathedral, featured personal anecdotes from his grandson, Jason Carter, emphasizing Carter's influence across generations.

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Carter (Grandson of Jimmy Carter):
  “Flights and, as you heard, craft beer.” [26:30]

• Gregory Allen:
  “Basically all of those years ago. He was the first millennial.” [26:38]

Implications: Jimmy Carter's economic policies have left a lasting imprint on American society, influencing contemporary economic practices and fostering intergenerational appreciation for his leadership.

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Conclusion

This Marketplace episode effectively navigates the complex terrain of economic uncertainty, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of how uncertainty manifests across different sectors and its far-reaching implications. From national security concerns surrounding AI technology and the strain on California’s insurance market due to wildfires, to Thailand’s strategic shift towards EV manufacturing and the personal success story of a small business owner, the discussions provide valuable insights into the multifaceted nature of economic uncertainty.

By incorporating expert opinions, real-world examples, and notable quotes, the episode underscores the pervasive impact of uncertainty on policy-making, business strategies, and individual livelihoods. As the global economy continues to navigate challenges such as climate change, technological advancements, and geopolitical tensions, understanding and measuring uncertainty remains crucial for fostering resilience and informed decision-making.

Transcript

[Amy Scott]

On the show today, AI and national security insurance in the climate crisis and uncertainty as an economic indicator. From American public media, this is Marketplace in Baltimore. I'm Amy Scott in for Kai Rysdal. It's Thursday, Thursday, January 9th. Good to have you with us. With just days left in his administration, President Joe Biden is reportedly preparing new rules to limit the flow of US artificial intelligence technology around the world. The rules are aimed at preventing adversaries like China and Russia from accessing AI chips. The tech industry that makes and sells those chips, though, is not too pleased. Marketplace's Sabri Benishore reports.

[Sabri Benishore]

AI chips can go into phones, they can also go into drones. Scott Jones is a senior non resident fellow at the Stimson Center. Semiconductors really will be at the very.

[Gregory Allen]

Heart of war fighting capability, the next generation.

[Sabri Benishore]

He says that concern has been at the heart of the Biden administration's efforts to limit the spread of AI chips and chip making capabilities. Any day now, it's expected to announce a new set of rules.

[Gregory Allen]

What it does is it buckets countries into different groups.

[Sabri Benishore]

Gregory Allen is with the center for Strategic and International Studies. Some US allies would get advanced AI chips no problem. Other countries, including China, wouldn't be allowed to get them at all.

[Gregory Allen]

And then finally there's the group of countries that are in the middle and they are subject to certain restrictions on the conditions under which those exports of AI chips can take place and also the overall quantities of AI chips that can be sold.

[Sabri Benishore]

These rules go further than previous attempts to control AI tech. Peter Lichtenbaum is a partner at law firm Covington and Burling.

[Gregory Allen]

It started out with China, but now we're looking at the US seeking to regulate globally the diffusion of these chips.

[Sabri Benishore]

Some tech companies are not happy with what's known so far about the rules.

[Gregory Allen]

It's a really bad idea.

[Sabri Benishore]

Jason Oxman is president of the Information Technology Industry Council, which represents, among others, Apple, intel and Amazon. But we're not just talking about limiting.

[Gregory Allen]

Access to countries of concern. We're talking about limiting access to our.

[Sabri Benishore]

Allies around the world, forcing them, he says, to look elsewhere and undermining US industrial dominance. So far, the Biden administration's efforts to control the spread of AI tech have actually slowed China's development of the technology, says CSIS's Gregory Allen.

[Gregory Allen]

China is looking pretty stuck.

[Sabri Benishore]

But China may retaliate with its own export controls and sanctions against the US including in New York. I'm Sabri Ben, ashore for Marketplace.

[Amy Scott]

On Wall Street. No numbers from US stock markets today, which closed for the national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. We'll have other details when we do the number. Wildfires continue to burn in Los Angeles county today with dangerous weather conditions expected through tomorrow night. At least five people have died and early estimates suggest the economic damage could exceed $50 billion. The fires will be a huge test for California, California's already shaky property insurance market. Ben Keys is a professor of real estate and finance at the Wharton School. Welcome to the program.

[Gregory Allen]

Thanks for having me.

[Amy Scott]

So, Ben, these fires are burning as California is in the midst of a really a homeowners insurance crisis. How would you describe the situation there?

[Gregory Allen]

Yeah, I think the crisis really comes from the household level. California's insurance market has been very tightly regulated for a long time and that's made the market generally favorable for consumers. But climate change induced disasters in recent years have really stressed that system. It's led a number of large insurers to exit the state or circumscribe where they write policies, and it's pushed a lot of homeowners into the state's insurer of last resort, the Fair Plan.

[Amy Scott]

Yeah, I read, I think in the Financial Times today that the Fair Plan as of the end of September had almost $6 billion of exposure just in the Pac Palisades area where these fires are burning. How does California absorb these losses?

[Gregory Allen]

Well, historically these types of fare plans were designed to be a band aid on the insurance market. And in the last few years, they have expanded way beyond their initial intended use. The Fair Plan in California has grown from about $50 billion of exposure in 2018 up to over $450 billion of exposure as of this September. So a ninefold increase. And I think the question is going to be whether that system is able to handle a shock as large as this one. We'll see what the final tally is in terms of damages. But this is a system where the commissioner of the system has been very clear about saying that the rates are not set in a competitive manner and they also don't have much of a capital cushion. And so that means that the rest of the state is likely on the hook if the losses are large enough. And you can think of that as an indirect tax on other California homeowners.

[Amy Scott]

At the end of last year, California's insurance commissioner, Ricardo Lara, put in some new policies to try to stabilize the market and expand coverage in areas prone to wildfires. Can you talk about some of those changes and whether you expect that to help in this situation?

[Gregory Allen]

Yeah, California has been very tightly regulated in a Number of ways. And part of this goes back to a proposition that was passed in the 1980s. It's been difficult for insurers to operate in the ways that they would like when it comes to setting their policy premiums and also the types of information that they're allowed to use when setting those premiums. And so California has been very restrictive in terms of, you know, relying only on backwards looking data rather than on some of the sophisticated catastrophe models. And we've seen the climate evolving so rapidly, especially for disasters like wildfires. Insurers have been desperate to use more information that they have at their fingertips when setting premiums. I think these reforms are likely to bring more insurers back to the table. This is largely what they were looking for. But a large disaster like this one is going to make them question whether it makes sense to write policies in some of these risky areas. And then ultimately, what's the right price? What's the right premium for policies that are exposed to wildfires?

[Amy Scott]

Hmm. As you and I have talked before, this is not just a California issue. You know, people around the country are seeing their premiums go up or getting non renewal notices as these disasters increase. Do you think we're any closer to solving this problem?

[Gregory Allen]

Well, we haven't really set out a list of policy solutions. We're still at very early stage when it comes to addressing these problems. I think we're still in the diagnosis phase. And you look at a very splintered regulatory landscape. Insurance is regulated at the state level. The federal government plays a relatively small role in insurance markets. And so I think we need a much more holistic approach that combines local, state and federal data and information from policymakers and from industry to wrap our hands around the problem. And then we need to think about broad based measures to stabilize the market, make it much more affordable and accessible for the average homeowner.

[Amy Scott]

All right. Ben Keys teaches real estate and finance at Wharton. Thank you so much for your time.

[Gregory Allen]

Thanks. So.

[Amy Scott]

If you were to tally up the most common words we've used on this show over the last handful of years, uncertainty would surely rank high on the list. We've used that word to describe what's happening in the housing market, the labor market, the stock market, really any corner of the economy. I mean, honestly, I can't remember a time when things didn't feel uncertain. Right now, though, with the climate crisis and wars and a new administration coming in promising some big policy changes, it feels maybe extra uncertain. But how do you even measure that? Marketplace's Kristen Schwab talked to some people who try.

[Kristen Schwab]

Uncertainty is a tricky thing to measure because is it a feeling or is it a fact? Turns out it's a bit of both.

[Gregory Allen]

You really want to measure uncertainty because you want to know what's in people's heads.

[Kristen Schwab]

Nick Bloom is an economist at Stanford and he says, yeah, you can survey people's sentiment. Economists do this to say, predict consumer spending. But to measure uncertainty about everything is a big expensive task.

[Gregory Allen]

So you have to get something as kind of a proxy for this.

[Kristen Schwab]

Bloom's actually developed a method of measurement called the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. And it gets its data from the news.

[Gregory Allen]

It actually counts the number of articles that talk about the economy, talk about policy and mention the word uncertainty.

[Kristen Schwab]

Yep, I am an uncertainty influencer, which kind of makes sense if you think about who we interview, policymakers, business owners and consumers. Laura Jackson Young, an economist at Bentley University, says there are some other ways to measure uncertainty.

[Amy Scott]

Volatility in financial markets, professional forecasters looking at variation in their forecast errors, or we can really just think about how it's affecting firm and household decision making.

[Kristen Schwab]

Measuring uncertainty is similar to measuring the economy, but economists separate the two because of uncertainty's effect. For example, a high level of uncertainty might mean companies hire less and consumers spend less.

[Amy Scott]

And it's kind of like that can lead to this like, snowball situation where it even further exacerbates uncertainty.

[Kristen Schwab]

Uncertainty breeds uncertainty, which is maybe why lately it kind of feels like everything has been uncertain all the time, forever. Like when's the last time you didn't feel uncertain about the economy?

[Jennifer Pak]

That's an excellent question.

[Kristen Schwab]

Oh, gosh, right now, according to the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, uncertainty is down from its all time high in May of 2020, but still twice the historical average. I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.

[Amy Scott]

Coming up.

[Jennifer Pak]

It's in its early stage. So most of the parts they are import.

[Amy Scott]

It takes time building up a local industry. First though, let's do the numbers. US Markets are closed today as part of the national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. There is also no regular mail delivery. But banks were open after falling 1% yesterday. Oil prices gained back that and then some by midday today. That was partially in response to a cold snap in parts of the US And Europe. Brent crude futures were up more than a dollar to more than $77 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up almost a dollar as well to more than $74 a barrel. The 30 year mortgage rate climbed to its highest level since July 6.93% Freddie Mac reported today. As we often talk about on the show, mortgage rates tend to relate to the yield on 10 year treasury bonds which have been rising for the past month but fell a bit today to 4.68%. You're listening to Marketplace.

[Kai Ryssdal]

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[Jason Carter]

Host of How We Survive. This season is all about the institution that shaped me the US Military, and how it could shape the future of climate tech. You've probably heard that 2024 was the hottest year on record, that wildfires devastated Los Angeles, and that the US Withdrew from the Paris agreement again. And while all that might feel pretty terrible, the climate crisis is not an inevitable reality. From simulated climate emergencies to micro grids and sustainable aviation fuel, we look at how the military is investing part of its $850 billion budget in a greener, more resilient future. Listen to How We Survive wherever you get your podcasts.

[Amy Scott]

This is Marketplace. I'm Amy Scott. As we talked about earlier, the damage from the wildfires raging in Southern California could reach $50 billion or more. It's expected to be the costliest w wildfire disaster ever in this country. That's partly because of climate driven weather conditions and also because of shortcomings in infrastructure that make it harder to prevent and respond to fires. Marketplace's Kaylee Wells looked at what it would take to avoid a catastrophe like this in the future.

[Kaylee Wells]

Let's start with the immediate answer. Fire prone areas could use more firefighters, says Greg Pierce. He's an Urban planning professor at ucla.

[Gregory Allen]

There's of course a reason why we don't have more. Firefighting is incredibly expensive and most of.

[Kaylee Wells]

The time you wouldn't need those extra people. For example, the Lahaina fire in Hawaii lasted less than a day. There's also the issue of getting enough water to the flames.

[Gregory Allen]

Water systems are quote unquote over designed to address your run of the mill house fires, small fires, but not near the capacity that you'd have to have for a wildfire.

[Kaylee Wells]

In la, some fire hydrants ran dry. Pierce says once the fire sparked, it was going to be devastating no matter what. As for avoiding the devastation, next time, Erica Fisher says the key is mitigation. She teaches civil and construction engineering at Oregon State University.

[Amy Scott]

The whole goal of home hardening and mitigation within the community is to decrease the intensity of the fire and make.

[Rita Magaldi]

It so that we can fight the fire.

[Kaylee Wells]

And since most buildings are homes, that means getting residents on board. Stephen Collier is a professor of city and regional planning at UC Berkeley who says one deterrent is cost.

[Gregory Allen]

I mean, if we're talking about home hardening, that's tens of thousands of dollars, even hundreds of thousands of dollars.

[Kaylee Wells]

Another deterrent he says is aesthetic. Residents resist home hardening because they don't want to destroy the big tree in the front yard or get rid of their beautiful wooden porch. For better or worse, Collier says the insurance crisis in wildfire prone areas has started to force these mitigation efforts to happen anyway.

[Gregory Allen]

Whether it's because you got non renewed or because all of a sudden you're paying $5,000 or $12,000 in insurance, people are just aware that this is something that they need to do because of insurance.

[Kaylee Wells]

Collier says the last solution that nobody wants to talk about is rethinking our current land use because fewer homes in fire prone areas means fewer resources spent fighting to save and reb. I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace.

[Amy Scott]

In Thailand, the economy is still recovering from widespread flooding. Last year it's estimated to have cost around two and a half billion dollars. The Thai government recently announced more help for small businesses and more spending on infrastructure. Even before the floods, a key part of Thailand's plan to boost its economy has been growing the country's production of electric vehicles. Marketplace's Jennifer Pack has that story.

[Jennifer Pak]

Thailand is a regional auto manufacturing hub, mainly for Japanese gas powered cars and pickup trucks. That's why it's sometimes called the Detroit of Southeast Asia. But times are tough, at least for those who work making gas powered cars. Says Motorcycle Taxi driver Natapo Balupet. He lives near a cluster of auto factories and suppliers in eastern Thailand.

[Gregory Allen]

Business is very bad. A lot of people have lost their jobs.

[Sabri Benishore]

Factories have closed down.

[Jennifer Pak]

Overall vehicle Production dropped by 20% in the first 11 months of last year compared to the previous year. Thailand's weak economy means banks are tightening the criteria for car loans and fewer consumers are buying new cars. But sales of EVs are holding up better than those of gas vehicles. So Thailand is betting on EV manufacturing. Of more than a million vehicles produced in the country in the first 10 months of last year, 170,000 were electric or hybrid. It has a policy. By 2030, 30% of all vehicles manufactured in Thailand will be electric. And to meet that goal, it needs help from a country with an advanced EV industry. You can see that Thailand goes all out in pursuing the Chinese investor. Pavita Pananond is a professional professor of international business at Thamaset University in Bangkok. She says the Thai government not only offers EV makers tax incentives to set up factories, but also tariff cut for completely built car in China. Cars built in China, she says, can also be imported into Thailand with zero tariffs. It's part of an existing free trade agreement between China and 10 Southeast Asian countries. China's EV makers have invested over $1.4 billion in Thailand over the last couple of years. Chinese giant BYD unveiled a sprawling factory last year in Rayong Province. The firm and other Chinese EV makers are keen to find more markets since their cars face 100% tariffs in the US and are effectively shut out. BYD Thailand turned down my interview request. Further north, near another Chinese EV factory for mg, some local businesses are worried that Chinese investment won't trickle down to the wider Thai economy. Chai Rat Suan Payak works at a Honda motorcycle dealership.

[Amy Scott]

These days, I see Chinese people renting.

[Gregory Allen]

Shops to do business.

[Amy Scott]

Their staff is Chinese, the customers are Chinese. But Chinese people wouldn't come to shops.

[Gregory Allen]

Say, like ours, and buy motorcycles.

[Jennifer Pak]

And something similar could happen in EV manufacturing, says Professor Pavita. Because Chinese companies can also set up their own suppliers and then import parts in here without really creating the supply chain that the Japanese have helped create in Thailand. The Thai government requires EV makers to source 40% of car parts locally. But that isn't happening just yet. According to economist Grain Cry Teishakanon in Bangkok, it's in its early stage, so most of the parts they are import. But at least Thai consumers are getting a good deal. The government here subsidizes EV prices to make them more affordable. Tasnapan Ratanavabulsam paid $20,000 for her BYD model. She thought it was a fair price and she's delighted with how much she's saving on running costs.

[Rita Magaldi]

Per month. I used to spend about $150 on petrol for my car. Now I pay just $44 to charge the EV.

[Jennifer Pak]

As a consumer, she's happy to have more choices. But as a salesperson for Japanese gas powered cars, she's worried.

[Rita Magaldi]

More Chinese EV investment is not a good thing because when Chinese brands come pick up prices to sell more EVs and it hurts the Japanese car industry.

[Jennifer Pak]

But the Thai government doesn't have a lot of leverage to rein in Chinese EV makers. For now, its focus is just to be a part of the global EV supply chain. In Bangkok, I'm Jennifer Pak for Marketplace.

[Amy Scott]

Next week we'll get an update on retail sales after the holiday shopping season. While we wait for that, let's check in with one of our regulars. Rita Magaldi owns a baklava bakery, Sheer Ambrosia in Salt. When we last spoke, she'd moved out of her home kitchen into a commercial space and hired an employee ahead of the busy season.

[Rita Magaldi]

It started off a little slow in the beginning of November, and so I thought, oh my gosh, are people going to come back and what am I going to do? And then right after Thanksgiving, things just kind of exploded. It was just night and day working here versus working from home because a, there was a little separation between home and work. Granted, I didn't spend very much time at home, but it was always a little awkward having strangers show up to my house. And so it was just nice for them to walk into this cute bakery and it just kind of set the mood for the pickup. I have a customer whose mother started buying from me when I first started the business in 2008. She was a teenager, so then she got married. Now this year when they came to pick up the baklava, they had their baby with them and they sent me a video feeding him baklava. And then after the video she sent me a little blurb and she goes, I guess it's going to be three generations of customers now. It was the cutest thing ever. And I just thought to myself, yeah, I am part of their family traditions and it's just so exciting and heartwarming. Things have slowed down as they always do in January. I try not to panic. So now I'm using this downtime to strategize for the year ahead. This month I am creating a schedule so that I can get out there, meet with hotels, meet with business owners. I can do that now that I have employees that are helping me make the baklava. I'm not stuck in the kitchen like I've been in the past. I am just over the moon, Excited about the new heights show Sheer Ambrosia will reach in 2025.

[Amy Scott]

Rita Magaldi, owner of Sheer Ambrosia in Salt Lake City, Utah. This final note on the way out today, a moment from the funeral for Jimmy Carter held at the National Cathedral in Washington. Among the many tributes, the former president's grandson, Jason Carter had this to say about his grandfather's legacy, economic and otherwise.

[Gregory Allen]

By the way, he cut the deficit, wanted to decriminalize marijuana and deregulated so many industries that he gave us cheap.

[Jason Carter]

Flights and, as you heard, craft beer.

[Gregory Allen]

Basically all of those years ago. He was the first millennial.

[Amy Scott]

Jimmy Carter will be buried next to his wife of 77 years, Rosalynn Carter, in his hometown of Plains, Georgia. John Buckley, John Gordon, Noya Carr, Diantha Parker, Amanda Peacher and Stephanie Sieck are the Marketplace editing staff. Amir Babawi is the managing editor. We also had help today from Jess Berg. I'm Amy Scott. Hope to see you back here tomorrow. This is apm.

[Jason Carter]

This economy can be complicated. That's why the Marketplace newsletter makes understanding it all simple. Get smart takes on the week's biggest stories delivered to your inbox every Friday. No jargon, no hype, just economics you can use. Sign up [e-mail] subscribe.