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Kai Rysdal
Sometimes with the economy, what you need is a really good explainer. We got you covered. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kai Rysdal. It is Wednesday today. This one is the 23rd of October. Good as always to have you along, everybody. It is way too easy for people who spend way too much time on, in or covering economic policy, present company, unfortunately, sometimes included to forget that for regular people, people who don't live and breathe this stuff, it can all be a little opaque. Like the Fed cut interest rates, fine, but what does that actually, you know, mean? So we called Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman the other day and said, hey, Mitchell, would you make it all make sense, please?
Mitchell Hartman
The Federal Reserve has two basic goals, what's called its dual mandate, legislated by Congress, to pursue stable prices and maximum employment. And it's mostly been questing after the first one, keeping interest rates high to bring inflation under control. But this summer, cracks started to appear in the second Fed mandate to make sure as many people as possible have jobs, says former Fed economist Claudia Somm, now at New Century Advisors.
Claudia Somm
Unemployment started creeping up, it started to get harder to find jobs. But what we've seen is just some reluctance to go out and hire new workers.
Mitchell Hartman
And that's where the Fed starting to lower interest rates can help, making it cheaper for firms to borrow and invest in their businesses for the Fed by.
Claudia Somm
Making that investment path less expensive. That could get an employer over the hump of saying, okay, well, I'll go.
Kai Rysdal
Ahead and hire two more workers.
Mitchell Hartman
But in real economic life, this is not instant cause and effect from lower rates to more workers being hired.
Kai Rysdal
What sounds good for y'all today?
Mitchell Hartman
I'll have two shredded chicken tacos.
Kai Rysdal
With the two tacos today, you get.
Mitchell Hartman
A free side of rice or beans. Porque no. Taqueria is a bright, bustling restaurant in Portland, Oregon, where patrons line up sometimes out the front door to order their food, tacos, rice bowls, Mexican soups and salads. Brian Steelman is the owner. We're sitting in his new glass enclosed patio dining room, which took two and a half years of planning, permitting and build out was quite expensive and we.
Kai Rysdal
Have taken loans to do it.
Mitchell Hartman
So far it's been worth it. Our October since we've opened this has been just skyrocketed. It's by far the busiest October we've ever had. Steelman says interest rates coming down will help him fund the renovation of his other taqueria in town.
Kai Rysdal
Plus we just recently expanded catering and.
Mitchell Hartman
We are actually looking for a third spot, which could eventually lead him to hire more workers. There are sectors of the economy like housing, where the Fed's cutting of short term interest rates may have a quicker effect. Private home builders in particular are dependent on the cost and availability of builder and developer loans from local and community banks. Robert Dietz at the national association of Homebuilders says those loans have been running around 12 to 14%. He predicts they'll come down as low as 10%. Lower interest rates on those loans will mean an increase in housing supply and more demand for construction workers. But now let's throw a little water on this rate cuts firing up the economy and job market narrative because after the Fed cut rates in September, we got a really good jobs report adding 254,000 new jobs with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% and the consumer price index rose 2.4% year over year, more than economists expected. Banking analyst Chris Stanley at Moody's analytics says it's now less likely the Fed will cut rates again soon. Either no more rate cuts for the remainder of the year or a much slower path to some of those lower rates than was anticipated is really the smart way to play. Most analysts do anticipate rates will continue moving lower into 2025 and small and mid sized businesses are waiting for that. Says Joe Galvin at peer advisory firm vistage.
Kai Rysdal
It puts CEOs in a position to think about making investments and capturing an interest rate that's much better than what they're seeing today. To invest in new facilities, new equipment.
Mitchell Hartman
Automation, all that new investment will eventually require new workers in construction, engineering, operations, sales. It's just going to take a while. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace on Wall street today.
Kai Rysdal
A little grim actually. Boeing, you've probably heard about, they reported that $6.2 billion quarterly hole this morning. McDonald's, they've got the food poisoning story. Starbucks down most of the day before bouncing back technology, Forget about it. You know what did go up though? Bond yields. We've been telling you about that. We will have the details when we do the numbers. Here's an item from the world of higher education. This year fewer kids went straight into college right out of high school. The data out today comes from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. It says that while undergraduate enrollment is up overall this fall, the number of 18 year olds enrolling as freshmen is is down nearly 6% from last year. That decline in freshmen is especially notable at four year schools, less so at community colleges. Marketplace's Stephanie Hughes looks at why more teenagers are deciding not to go back into the classroom.
Claudia Somm
This year there were some extra high hurdles in the college application process. One was the fafsa. That's the form students have to fill out to learn how much financial aid they can get. This year's FAFSA was revised and released three months later than usual, says Catherine Brown with the National College Attainment Network.
Catherine Brown
I think there were students who tried to get into the fafsa, were unable to do so, ran up against technical problems and eventually just threw their hands up in frustration and said I'm not.
Claudia Somm
Doing this, and then decided to put off going to school altogether. The FAFSA delay also meant colleges financial aid offers got to students later than usual, and Jennifer Jesse, a college consultant in the D.C. area, says that left kids with fewer options.
Jennifer Jesse
It's only until you get your financial aid letter that you realize, wait, there's not enough scholarships to cover the gap.
Claudia Somm
Also, this is the first class applying to college since the Supreme Court ended affirmative action. That means schools can no longer consider race. Doug Shapiro leads the research center at the National Student Clearinghouse.
Mitchell Hartman
I think that may have discouraged some students from applying at all.
Claudia Somm
And the labor market is strong, which could be pulling some high school graduates towards jobs instead of classrooms. In addition, some 18 year olds who might have been going to college this fall were derailed by the pandemic. That includes Stacy Burnett's son, whose school in Connecticut was remote for all of 9th grade and some of 10th. He just fell into himself, burnett says. Her son, who'd been on a college track, couldn't handle returning to school, so he finished remotely and graduated four months late, she says. Before the pandemic, he was dreaming of being a pharmacist, but now has trouble leaving the house. I don't think he's going to launch in his 20s. Burnett says he is considering getting certified as an electrician instead of going to college. But she says he's not ready yet. I'm Stephanie Hughes for Marketplace.
Kai Rysdal
Today's first housing data point comes to us from the national association of Realtors, which said this morning sales of existing homes were off last month, down a percent in September from August, off three and a half percent from a year ago. The formula, of course, you can probably guess high and rising prices, lower but still high mortgage rates. The day's second housing data point comes from the rental market Zillow, to be specific, which reports that in the year 2022, 58% of people aged 18 to 25 in this economy were what's called Rent burdened defined as spending at least 30% of their pre tax income on housing. That's better than millennials had it when they were in that same age bracket, but not by too much. Twelve years ago, 66.0percent of young adults were rent burdened. Marketplace's Kelly Wells set about finding out just how far that burden extends.
Kenny Lee
The weight of a rent burden might change a bit year to year, but the main culprit has been around for decades. Says senior economist Kenny Lee of Zillow and StreetEasy.
Mitchell Hartman
The historical undersupply of rental housing is really the problem.
Kenny Lee
Millennials had it worse because they came of age around the time of a housing market crash. Rent burdened young adults peaked in 2011, and everything was getting better. But until 2020 happened, the surging renter.
Mitchell Hartman
Demand since the pandemic really reversed this trend, which led to soaring rents and inventory shortages, really making it difficult for local housing markets to catch up with this demand.
Kenny Lee
Now, at the same time that was happening, household wealth was increasing, just not equally. John Campbell teaches financial accounting at the University of Georgia. He says there are two main ways to increase wealth.
Mitchell Hartman
You're either a homeowner or you have money in the stock market. And if you're at this level of 18 to 25, you're neither of those things.
Kenny Lee
Meanwhile, housing prices have just kept going up since 2022, which is as far as this study went.
Mitchell Hartman
I would guess if you went out to 24, it wouldn't be better.
Kai Rysdal
It'd probably be worse.
Kenny Lee
If you pay a lot in rent, you save less. Jordan Levine, chief economist at the California association of Realtors, says if you save.
Mitchell Hartman
Less, it prevents you from building up that down payment, getting into that first home, then that forever home or whatever.
Kenny Lee
And the longer these young adults are renting and rent burdened, the wider the wealth gap becomes. Levine says the big fix is increasing the supply of starter homes.
Mitchell Hartman
We just need to make sure that we're facilitating all of that amazing growth with the right amount of housing.
Kenny Lee
And he's feeling hopeful because at least now, he says, there's finally consensus in the industry that the way to build more home ownership is to build more homes. I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace.
Claudia Somm
Coming up, this is the line I won't cross. I will not download this app.
Kai Rysdal
Sometimes you just gotta draw a line in the digital sand, you know. First, though, let's do the numbers. Well, here you go. Dow industrials off 409 points today. 1%. 42,514. Nasdaq down 296 points 1 and 6 10% 18276s and P 500 down 53 points about 9, 10% 5797 there heard from Kelly Wells about half of young renters being what's called rent burdened well and some rent related stock. Zillow, which of course did that study, down 1.8%. Competitors Compass shed 2.3% Redfin sank 3% today. Coca Cola released higher than expected quarterly earnings, topped out at $11.95 billion in sales. That is a whole lot of soda pop. Shares down just over 2% today. McDonald's as I mentioned off 5 and a 10% Boeing ticker symbol BA off 1.8% you're listening to Marketplace. You turn to Marketplace for up to the minute news for stories that show you the connections between global events and your personal economy. And you're not alone. Marketplace is the most widely consumed business and economic news program in the country. We're proud to make fact based journalism freely accessible and Marketplace investors make it all possible. Your year end donation today will make a real difference in our nonprofit newsroom and in the lives of millions of Marketplace listeners every single day. So please contribute what you can today@marketplace.org donate this is Marketplace. I'm Kai Ryssdal. America's farmers are in a bad mood. The latest read on farmer sentiment from Purdue University out earlier this month showed the people who grow our food and raise our livestock are the least happy they have been in eight years. Also and related More than half of the 70 agricultural economists surveyed by the University of Missouri and Farm Journal this month say the farm economy is in a recession. And another quarter of those economists say it's right on the brink. Marketplace in Savannah Mar has more on what's got them down, down on the farm.
Scott Gurlt
Right now, US Commodity crop farmers are pulling corn and wheat and soybeans out of the ground. And Scott Gurlt, chief economist with the American Soybean association, says even though fall harvests are looking pretty good, I think.
Kai Rysdal
We'Re seeing the stress level rise across the countryside.
Scott Gurlt
Gurlt says farmers are paying more for things like land, seeds and fertilizer. Their debt dependent businesses are burdened by still high interest rates. Commodity crop prices are down.
Mitchell Hartman
I think we're going to see a.
Kai Rysdal
Mix of farmers who are losing money.
Jennifer Jesse
This year to barely break any.
Scott Gurlt
Even behind those lower prices are record crop yields in the US and around the world. Basically, says Doug Johnson, who heads up Johnson Ag Outlook, supply is out of sync with demand in ways the Industry.
Mitchell Hartman
Couldn'T predict if you have a job in the city, you have a paycheck. You get paid every two weeks.
Kai Rysdal
You know what your income is going to be.
Mitchell Hartman
That's not the world of farming.
Scott Gurlt
But the other thing about farm finance is that it's cyclical. Farmers are just two years out from record high farm incomes with a little.
Jennifer Jesse
Bit more padding in their coffers.
Scott Gurlt
And Kristen Owen, an analyst at Oppenheimer, says there's a saying in the ag business, low commodity prices solve low commodity prices by creating new demand. For example, low corn prices could drive up ethanol production. Still, Owen says producers are moving with caution. That's reflected in layoffs at equipment manufacturer John Deere. I think that there is a lot.
Jennifer Jesse
Of uncertainty in the farm economy right.
Scott Gurlt
Now over what will be in the next farm bill and what happens with the election and trade policy in the coming months. I'm Savannah Marr for Marketplace.
Kai Rysdal
Weeks after Helene and Milton, thousands of people, tens of thousands, probably of people in North Carolina, Florida, Tennessee and beyond are still deep in the cleanup. And most of them probably just starting to think about rebuilding after all of that devastating flooding. Having your home or community flood gets very expensive very quickly. And insurance payouts and federal disaster relief can take a while to arrive. A nonprofit in New York City is piloting a community based insurance program that's meant to act as a bridge for people while they wait. Rare though it is in the United States, this kind of insurance could serve as a model. As Marketplace's Samantha Fields reports, at the.
Catherine Brown
Corner of 183rd street and 90th Avenue in Hollis, Queens, there's a yellow diamond street sign with black letters road May Flood. It was installed after the remnants of Hurricane ida dumped some 9 inches of rain on New York City in 2021 and caused major flooding. More than a dozen people died that night, most in basement apartments, including here on this block.
George Lee
Everything from my house and that has cross street on down got flooded. You know, it was like a nightmare.
Catherine Brown
George Lee is 72, and he's lived here since the mid-1960s when his parents bought the house. He says the block has always been prone to flooding. It's at the bottom of a hill. But in the past, it wasn't that bad.
George Lee
Okay, I have water, my basement, maybe up to my ankle, and that's it. Okay? But when we have Hurricane Ida, forget it.
Catherine Brown
That night, the rain was so intense that Lee's entire basement flooded all the way to the first floor. Everything was destroyed.
George Lee
I had very valuable stuff in my basement. You know, I had a whole comic collection that was gone. I had a whole record collection that was gone.
Catherine Brown
In the weeks after the storm, Theodora Makris at the nonprofit center for New York City Neighborhoods says many who had flood damage learned their insurance wouldn't cover much, if anything.
Jennifer Jesse
People didn't know where to turn to. Are there funds coming from the federal government? Where can we apply?
Catherine Brown
People were able to apply for FEMA funding, but Macra says the application and process were confusing.
Jennifer Jesse
And ultimately, when they did get money, if they did get money, it didn't really cover the things that they were hoping for it to cover.
Catherine Brown
It also took a long time to arrive. Carolyn Kuske at the Environmental Defense Fund says people with low to moderate incomes often struggle after disasters to replace food, clothes and furniture or find a new place to stay. Watching that play out over and over again, she started thinking, how can we.
Jennifer Jesse
Get fast and flexible dollars to these households in need? After a big flood event, the center.
Catherine Brown
For New York City Neighborhoods, along with several public and private partners, is now piloting one idea as a possible answer to that question, a kind of community based flood insurance. Basically, the center, with outside financial support, has bought something called a parametric flood insurance policy on behalf of city residents. It pays out when there's a qualifying storm, one that meets certain parameters set ahead of time.
Jennifer Jesse
So think wind speeds exceeds some threshold within so many miles of your home, you automatically get a set payout.
Catherine Brown
Or in this case, if a certain amount of rain were to fall, the center for New York City Neighborhoods would get a lump sum insurance payout that they could then use to give emergency cash grants of 5 to $15,000 to a limited number of people affected by the flooding.
Jennifer Jesse
And the nice thing about parametric is that it's very fast because there's no loss adjustment.
Catherine Brown
There's no waiting for someone from the insurance company to come inspect damage and decide how much they'll cover. The payout is automatic if the storm is bad enough. Theodora Makris at the center for New York City Neighborhoods says people could use these grants for whatever they need to replace food or clothes, stay in a hotel temporarily, or rent a car.
Jennifer Jesse
And I think what's really important about that is nobody knows a family's needs or an individual's needs better than themselves, especially in the moments after a disaster where things are really crazy and chaotic and you need to have a little bit more flexibility.
Catherine Brown
In the days immediately after Hurricane Ida flooded his home in Queens, New York, George Lee needed help pumping water out of his basement and cleaning it out.
George Lee
I had to hire three people to come to put everything in the garbage truck. I had so much stuff.
Catherine Brown
And after the cleanup, there was so much to fix and replace. Windows, the boiler, computers, even. Now, three years later, Lee says some of his basement walls are still cracked from the water. I'm Samantha Fields for MarketPL.
Kai Rysdal
High tech has come to the world of sports. New sports stadiums and arenas, to be precise. Facial recognition technology, to be even more precise. It's already in place, from New York's Citi Field to San Diego's Pechanga Arena. And Now a new $2 billion arena here in Los Angeles is taking tech even further by combining it with a smartphone app. The Intuit Dome, home to the NBA's LA Clippers and a concert venue. On the side is betting people are okay with a little more data collection. KCRW's Megan Jamerson went to find out.
Jennifer Jesse
In order to get inside the Intuit Dome for a concert or a game, fans have to first download an app. Austin Williams is here to see Usher perform.
Catherine Brown
Yeah, I'm excited.
Mitchell Hartman
I got last minute tickets.
Jennifer Jesse
Williams opens the app to access his digital ticket. He also opts into using the venue's facial recognition system. William smiles a little self consciously and then snaps a selfie once he's inside. The app knows all kinds of stuff about him. It can tell if he gets out of his seat. It can see the photos he takes in the stadium if he decides he wants a hot dog. The app is already connected to his credit card, so he can use his face to pay. Williams thinks it's convenient.
Mitchell Hartman
I mean, there's definitely like pros and cons to it, right? But I do think it's a great breakthrough.
Jennifer Jesse
What does the venue get out of it? Aside from his photos, browsing activity and employment info? The Intuit Dome declined to give an interview, but in an email said it doesn't sell data to third parties. According to the privacy policy, it uses this personal information to provide services. And there are clear financial incentives for all of this data collection, says Larry Vincent. He's a marketing professor at University of Southern California.
Kai Rysdal
It's no longer just a faceless ticket.
Jennifer Jesse
There are some benefits for concert goers. Shorter lines, less price gouging on tickets that are resold. But there's a creepy factor here, too. At the Intuit Dome, the system can hear how loudly fans cheer. They might be rewarded for their enthusiasm with discounts on concessions, but some might find the eavesdropping invasive.
Mitchell Hartman
So the marketers have to really think.
Kai Rysdal
About, okay, I can do this?
Claudia Somm
Should I do this?
Mitchell Hartman
How do I do this so that people really welcome it rather than feeling like their personal space has been invaded when they didn't ask for it?
Jennifer Jesse
Privacy experts have a lot of concerns about all of this. All this personal data could leak. It can be shared with law enforcement, and studies show that facial recognition systems have a much higher error rate for darker skin tones than lighter ones. The threat to privacy it creates this additional cost to what you're already paying. Emerald Tse is a lawyer and fellow at the center on Privacy and Technology at Georgetown. Tse's big picture concern is that people are increasingly desensitized to this level of surveillance and data collection, then it would get harder and harder to object. When this technology is implemented in more serious contexts, such as when they're attached to essential services and for some would be concert goers, this level of data collection is a deal breaker. Like Wendy Anghiano, we can say this.
Claudia Somm
Is the line I won't cross. I will not download this app. I will not go to the Dome.
Jennifer Jesse
She doesn't trust companies to keep her data safe or be honest about how they are using it, but plenty of other fans don't seem to mind. The Usher concert is sold out. The Dome says up to 75% of patrons opt in to facial recognition, including Austin Williams, who has finished setting up the app and is ready to head into the venue.
Mitchell Hartman
So it's going to be a new experience and we get to hear the.
Catherine Brown
Sounds of Usher along with it.
Jennifer Jesse
Williams walks through the line to use his face as his ticket. In Inglewood, California, I'm Megan Jamerson from Marketplace.
Kai Rysdal
This final note on the way out today. Make of this what you will. The beige book came out today. That of course, is the Federal Reserve's region by region anecdotal look at the state of this economy. Tip of the hat, by the way, for this one. To our Friday regular Gina Smilek from the New York Times, mentions of election uncertainty here in October 2024's Beige Book. 15. At this point in 2027, in 2016, just 8. Our media production team includes Brian Allison, Jake Cherry, Justin Dueler, Drew Jostad Garriotte, Keith Charlton Thorpe, Juan Carlos Strato, and Becca Weinman. Jeff Peters is the manager of media production and I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow. Everybody. This is apm. You turn to Marketplace for up to the minute news for stories that show you the connections between global events and your personal economy. And you're not alone. Marketplace is the most widely consumed business and economic news program in the country. We're proud to make fact based journalism freely accessible and Marketplace investors make it all possible. Your year end donation today will make a real difference in our nonprofit newsroom and in the lives of millions of Marketplace listeners every single day. So please contribute what you can today@marketplace.org donate.
Marketplace: Most Young Americans Are Rent Burdened
Release Date: October 23, 2024
Host: Kai Ryssdal
In this episode of Marketplace, host Kai Ryssdal delves into the pressing issue of housing affordability for young Americans. Titled "Most Young Americans Are Rent Burdened," the episode explores the factors contributing to high rental costs, the impact on millennials and Gen Z, and potential solutions to alleviate this widespread economic strain.
Zillow's Rent Burden Study
At the core of the discussion is a recent study by Zillow, which reveals that in 2022, 58% of individuals aged 18 to 25 were classified as rent burdened—spending at least 30% of their pre-tax income on housing. While this marks an improvement from 66% twelve years ago, the rate remains alarmingly high, reflecting longstanding challenges in the U.S. housing market.
Notable Insights:
Supply and Demand Imbalance
Mitchell Hartman explains that the surge in demand since the pandemic has exacerbated the rent burden:
"Demand since the pandemic really reversed this trend, which led to soaring rents and inventory shortages, really making it difficult for local housing markets to catch up with this demand." (09:54)
Economic Inequality
As household wealth has increased, it hasn't been evenly distributed. Young adults, typically not yet homeowners or significant stock investors, find themselves disproportionately affected:
Impact of High Interest Rates
High interest rates have kept mortgage costs elevated, limiting affordability and pushing more young adults into the rental market:
Stacy Burnett's Son
The episode shares the story of Stacy Burnett's son, whose educational trajectory was derailed by the pandemic. Having attended school remotely, he struggled to reintegrate, leading Burnett to consider alternative career paths for him, such as becoming an electrician instead of pursuing pharmacy.
George Lee's Flooding Experience
In a broader discussion on housing, the episode touches on George Lee's experience with flooding in Queens, emphasizing the vulnerabilities faced by renters:
Wealth Gap Expansion
Continued rent burden among young adults contributes to the widening wealth gap. Without the ability to save for a down payment, homeownership remains out of reach, perpetuating financial instability:
Proposed Solutions: Increasing Housing Supply
Experts agree that boosting the supply of starter homes is crucial. By increasing the availability of affordable housing options, young renters would have a better chance to transition into homeownership:
Federal Reserve's Role
Mitchell Hartman and Claudia Somm discuss the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. Recent rate cuts aim to stimulate the economy by making borrowing cheaper, potentially aiding sectors like housing:
Challenges and Optimism
Despite positive job reports, like adding 254,000 new jobs and a lowering unemployment rate, the future remains uncertain regarding further rate cuts. Analysts like Chris Stanley at Moody's Analytics suggest that significant rate reductions may not occur soon, affecting small and mid-sized businesses' investment decisions:
Beyond housing, the episode briefly explores the integration of high-tech surveillance in sports venues, such as the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, highlighting privacy concerns and the balance between convenience and data security. This segment, while tangential, underscores the pervasive nature of technological advancements in everyday life.
The "Most Young Americans Are Rent Burdened" episode of Marketplace paints a comprehensive picture of the multifaceted challenges young adults face in the housing market. From economic policies and market dynamics to personal struggles and proposed solutions, the episode underscores the urgent need for systemic changes to ensure affordable housing for the next generation.
This summary aims to encapsulate the key points, discussions, and insights from the "Most Young Americans Are Rent Burdened" episode of Marketplace, providing a comprehensive overview for those who have not listened to the full podcast.