O Fraser fir

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Episode Summary: "O Fraser fir"

Release Date: December 24, 2024

Hosted by Amy Scott for Kai Ryssdal, this episode of "Marketplace" delves into several pressing economic and business topics, ranging from minimum wage hikes and the evolving landscape of live sports streaming to the challenges faced by Christmas tree farmers and the alarming environmental shifts in the Arctic tundra. Below is a comprehensive summary of the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

---

1. Minimum Wage Increases: A Growing Impact on the Workforce

Overview: The episode begins with a significant update on the minimum wage landscape in the United States. Over nine million workers are set to receive raises as 21 states and 4,048 cities and counties implement increases in their minimum wages. This movement marks a substantial shift, with about one-third of U.S. workers residing in areas where the minimum wage meets or exceeds $15 per hour by next year.

Key Discussions:

• Political Advocacy and Economic Policies: Sebastian Martinez Hickey from the Economic Policy Institute highlights, "Next year's minimum wage hikes are the legacy of sustained political pressure by advocates for low wage workers" (02:14). This underscores the long-term efforts by labor advocates to elevate wages for the lowest earners.

• Historical Context: Michelle Evermore notes, "We're more than a decade into The Fight for 15 movement, which started out with worker organizing in New York City amongst fast food workers" (02:25), providing historical context to the wage increase movement.

• Geographical Distribution: Hickey elaborates, "Nearly half of US workers will live in states with a $15 an hour minimum wage or higher by 2027" (02:33), emphasizing the widespread adoption across both affluent and rural states like California and Nebraska.

• Economic Implications: Yanette Lathrop from the National Employment Law Project points out, "That's more than double the federal minimum wage, which 20 states follow" (02:50), highlighting the divergence between federal and state minimum wages.

• Labor Market Dynamics: Michael Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, comments, "Voters tend to support minimum wage increases because they think it's going to increase their wages" (03:10). However, he also warns, "15 an hour or higher isn't good for everyone," noting potential challenges for the least educated and most vulnerable workers in securing employment (03:34).

• Inflation Indexing: The episode discusses the trend of indexing minimum wages to inflation, with Michelle Evermore stating, "Indexing to inflation didn't seem quite as important in 2007 as it does after our experience over the last few years" (03:58), especially in light of recent inflation spikes affecting low-income households (04:04).

Conclusions: The widespread increase in minimum wages reflects both political advocacy and economic responses to inflation. While these hikes benefit many low-wage workers, they also present challenges for certain segments of the labor market, particularly in regions with stagnant wages.

---

2. Netflix Ventures into Live Sports Streaming

Overview: In a groundbreaking move, Netflix announced it will broadcast live NFL games for the first time, aiming to capitalize on the platform’s vast subscriber base. This entry into live sports streaming represents a significant shift in the streaming industry's approach to content delivery.

Key Discussions:

• Technical Challenges: Charles Schrager discusses the technical difficulties encountered during Netflix’s live broadcast of a high-profile boxing match, noting, "Streaming live events is technically difficult to plan for," and highlights issues like buffering and low resolution that plagued early broadcasts (05:25).

• Operational Hurdles: Viewers reported technical glitches, with Elizabeth Parks sharing, "We couldn't get it going actually at our house for some reason" (06:02). Solutions like switching from phone to TV were attempted but did not fully resolve the issues (06:07).

• Business Motivations: The move is driven by the potential for advertising revenue. Charles Schrager explains, "93% of the most watched broadcast programs last year were NFL games. And streamers are eager to intercept some of those eyeballs" (07:09), indicating the lucrative nature of live sports viewership.

• Competitive Landscape: Netflix joins other major streamers like Amazon Prime with Thursday Night Football and Apple with professional soccer, each seeking to diversify their content offerings and attract new subscribers (05:45).

Conclusions: Netflix’s foray into live sports streaming represents both a strategic business expansion and a technical challenge. While the potential for high advertising revenue is significant, the platform must overcome substantial technical hurdles to compete effectively in the live sports broadcasting arena.

---

3. Challenges Facing Fraser Fir Christmas Tree Farmers in North Carolina

Overview: The episode shifts focus to the Fraser fir Christmas tree industry in North Carolina, a critical economic driver for rural mountain communities. Recent natural disasters and emerging plant diseases pose severe threats to this sector.

Key Discussions:

• Economic Importance: Laura Hackett from Blue Ridge Public Radio introduces D. Clark, a prominent Christmas tree farmer overseeing 400,000 Fraser fir trees, emphasizing the region produces 20% of the country’s Christmas trees (08:27).

• Impact of Hurricane Helene: Clark shares, "Business wise, we took a huge hit. We estimate our losses in the neighborhood of $3 million" (09:03), detailing the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene, including flooded properties and landslides that decimated seedlings (09:11).

• Phytophthora Fungus Threat: Justin Whitehill, director of North Carolina State’s Christmas tree genetic program, warns about Phytophthora, a fungus exacerbated by floodwaters, which attacks tree roots and is now widespread, leading to potential mortality events (09:31). He states, "There's really no solution for those trees that are out there. It's just gonna unfortunately lead to a mortality event for some of those trees" (09:56).

• Farming Solutions and Adaptations: Efforts to combat the fungus include genetic modification and grafting techniques, though these solutions remain years away from implementation (10:04).

• Market Resilience: Despite these challenges, Fraser firs remain available for Christmas, with farmers like Bob and Ray Hockset successfully selling out in markets like Asheville (11:00). The emotional connection customers have with traditional trees is a key factor in maintaining sales.

Conclusions: Fraser fir farmers in North Carolina face significant threats from natural disasters and plant diseases, jeopardizing a vital economic activity. While immediate solutions are limited, the enduring demand for traditional Christmas trees provides some resilience to the industry's challenges.

---

4. Arctic Permafrost Thawing: Turning a Carbon Sink into a Source

Overview: A concerning revelation from NOAA’s annual Arctic Report Card indicates that the Arctic tundra, historically a major carbon sink, is now becoming a net emitter of carbon dioxide due to climate-induced changes.

Key Discussions:

• Understanding the Arctic Tundra: Michelle Evermore explains, "It's a vast treeless plain... [that] covers about 20% of the planet's land area" (17:24). The slow vegetation growth and permanently frozen soil have traditionally enabled the Arctic to sequester significant amounts of carbon.

• Climate Change Effects: Due to global warming, the Arctic is warming two to four times faster than the rest of the planet (18:05). Thawing permafrost allows microbes to decompose previously frozen organic matter, releasing carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere (18:16).

• Wildfires and Carbon Release: An increase in wildfires within the Arctic tundra further exacerbates carbon emissions. Michelle notes, "This increase... is a big reason why we've seen this tipping from being a sink to a source in terms of greenhouse gas emissions" (19:35).

• Economic Activities and Environmental Feedback: The thawing permafrost opens up potential for oil and gas development, which could further contribute to warming. Michelle Evermore comments on the economics, "It's still a pretty expensive place to do that kind of extraction work," suggesting that market conditions may limit immediate exploitation (20:30).

• Potential for Reversal: Michelle offers a nuanced view, stating, "Some of the scientists I spoke to... this is potentially still a reversible thing, that if we are able to limit our output of greenhouse gases, that potentially we could see the balance tip back in the other direction" (21:46), though recognizing the significant challenges ahead.

Conclusions: The Arctic tundra’s transformation from a carbon sink to a source poses serious implications for global climate regulation. While there is potential for mitigating these effects through reduced greenhouse gas emissions, the current trends indicate a troubling escalation in carbon emissions from one of the planet's most critical ecosystems.

---

5. Restaurant Industry Navigates Holiday Challenges Amid Inflation

Overview: As the holiday season approaches, the restaurant industry grapples with economic pressures such as inflation and increased competition. However, some establishments leverage tradition and unique experiences to thrive.

Key Discussions:

• Traditional vs. Modern Strategies: Megan McCarty Carino reports on Monte Carlo Italian Deli in Burbank, which thrives on its long-standing traditions and loyal customer base. Owner Anthony Scuticchio shares, "Your customers will stick with you, in part because of nostalgia," highlighting the importance of maintaining a familiar and comforting atmosphere (24:06).

• Impact of Inflation: Scuticchio discusses the challenges posed by rising costs, noting, "the cheap glass of red wine cost $0.30 more than it did last year" (25:29). He explains that fluctuating expenses like gas and electricity bills complicate pricing strategies (25:39).

• Customer Experience and Community: Successful restaurants like Casita del Campo in Los Angeles emphasize a welcoming environment and unique culinary offerings as key to attracting customers. Owner Robert Del Campo attributes resilience to the restaurant’s legacy and community support, stating, "it's a safe haven for the queer community and that welcoming atmosphere is still at the heart of the business" (26:23).

• Adapting to Market Conditions: Hudson Reely from the National Restaurant Association observes, "when people do go out, they want a unique experience," which aligns with younger generations’ preferences for nostalgic and distinctive dining experiences (25:57). This strategy helps restaurants differentiate themselves in a competitive market.

• Holiday Spending Trends: The report cites that holiday spending at restaurants increased by nearly 8% compared to the previous year, driven by holiday gatherings and the desire for traditional meals (26:01).

Conclusions: Amid economic challenges, restaurants that emphasize tradition, community, and unique customer experiences are better positioned to weather the pressures of inflation and increased competition. The holiday season serves as a critical period where these strategies can lead to enhanced customer loyalty and sustained business performance.

---

6. Additional Highlights

• Stock Market Update: The episode provides a brief overview of the stock market’s performance, noting significant gains in major indices and specific movements in companies like American Airlines and U.S. Steel.

• Box Office Trends: Anticipation builds for a busy holiday box office, with several film releases expected to attract substantial ticket sales, contributing to an annual Hollywood revenue projection of $8.75 billion.

• Featured Podcasts: Listeners are introduced to new podcasts, including "How We Survive" focused on climate solutions and "Counterpoint" from Foreign Policy, which explores global diplomatic and societal issues.

---

Notable Quotes:

• "Next year's minimum wage hikes are the legacy of sustained political pressure by advocates for low wage workers." — Sebastian Martinez Hickey (02:14)

• "93% of the most watched broadcast programs last year were NFL games. And streamers are eager to intercept some of those eyeballs." — Charles Schrager (07:09)

• "Phytophthora... that's a microorganism that attacks the roots and causes the roots to die." — Justin Whitehill (09:31)

• "Some of the scientists I spoke to... this is potentially still a reversible thing." — Michelle Evermore (21:46)

• "It's like a second home." — Kathy Hampel on Monte Carlo Italian Deli (24:34)

---

Conclusion: This episode of "Marketplace" offers a multifaceted exploration of current economic and environmental issues, providing listeners with in-depth insights into the implications of minimum wage hikes, the challenges of live sports streaming, the vulnerabilities of Christmas tree farming, the dire environmental shifts in the Arctic, and the resilience of the restaurant industry amidst economic pressures. Through expert interviews and on-the-ground reporting, the episode paints a comprehensive picture of the interconnectedness of these sectors and their broader impact on society and the economy.

Transcript

[Sponsor Voice]

This Marketplace podcast is supported by Odoo. Why waste time and money on disconnected management platforms when Odoo has everything any business will ever need in one simple, affordable, user friendly software? That's why it's time to switch to Odoo. Sign up [e-mail] Heads up folks.

Interest rates are falling, but you can still lock in a 6% or higher yield with a bond [e-mail] that's a pretty big deal because when rates drop, so can the interest you earn on your investment. A bond account allows you to lock in a 6% or higher yield with a diversified portfolio of high yield and investment grade corporate bonds. So while other people are watching their returns shrink, you can sit back with regular interest payments. But you might want to act fast because your yield is not locked in until you invest. The good news? It only takes a couple of minutes to sign [e-mail] lock in a 6% or higher yield with a bond account [e-mail] marketplace brought to you by Public Investing member FINRA and SIPC. As of September 26, 2024, the average annualized yield to worst across the bond account is greater than 6%. Yield to worst is not guaranteed. Not an investment recommendation. All investing involves risk. Visit public.com disclosures Bond account for more info.

[Amy Scott]

We've got a wintery mix in store today, Christmas trees, football and a trip to the Arctic From American Public Media. This is Marketplace in Baltimore. I'm Amy Scott in for Kai rysdal. It's Tuesday, December 24th. Good to have you with us. More than 9 million workers will get a raise next week when 21 states and 4048 cities and counties increase their minimum wages. Recent increases elsewhere are one reason workers at the bottom of the wage scale have seen their incomes rise even faster than higher earners in the past few years. By next year, about a third of US Workers will live in a place where the minimum wage is at or above $15 an hour, more than twice the federal minimum, Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman reports.

[Sebastian Martinez Hickey]

Next year's minimum wage hikes are the legacy of sustained political pressure by advocates for low wage workers, says Sebastian Martinez Hickey at the Economic Policy Institute.

[Michelle Evermore]

We're more than a decade into The Fight for 15 movement, which started out with worker organizing in New York City amongst fast food workers.

[Sebastian Martinez Hickey]

Nearly One half of US workers will live in states with a $15 an hour minimum wage or higher by 2027, Hickey says.

[Michelle Evermore]

They include very wealthy states like California, but it's also a rural state like Nebraska will reach $15 minimum wage in a couple years.

[Sebastian Martinez Hickey]

That's more than double the federal minimum wage, which 20 states follow, says Yanette Lathrop at the National Employment Law Project.

[Amy Scott]

There's a substantial workforce that is mainly.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

In the south that is stuck at.

[Amy Scott]

725, and those states have 37% of the total US workforce. The south is home to a majority of black workers.

[Sebastian Martinez Hickey]

Minimum wage hikes do well at the ballot box. Economist Michael Strain at the American Enterprise Institute says that's not too surprising.

[Michelle Evermore]

Voters tend to support minimum wage increases because they think it's going to increase their wages.

[Sebastian Martinez Hickey]

When the minimum wage goes up, wages a little higher on the income ladder tend to go up as well. But strain says 15 an hour or higher isn't good for everyone.

[Michelle Evermore]

The higher the minimum wage goes, the harder it is for the least educated, least experienced and most vulnerable workers to find jobs.

[Sebastian Martinez Hickey]

The minimum wage is indexed to inflation in nearly half of states, rising automatically with the cost of living. Michelle Evermore at the Century foundation worked on Capitol Hill the last time Congress raised the federal minimum wage.

[Amy Scott]

Indexing to inflation didn't seem quite as important in 2007 as it does after our experience over the last few years.

[Sebastian Martinez Hickey]

Nguyen she says a sharp spike in inflation hit low income households particularly hard. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

[Amy Scott]

Wall street knocked off early on a high note. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. First time ever, Netflix will be ringing in Christmas with a couple live NFL games tomorrow. The platform's nearly 300 million subscribers will be able to watch Kansas City play Pittsburgh and then Houston against Baltimore. Go Ravens. It'll all kick off with a performance by the Queen of Christmas, Mariah Carey, followed by a halftime show by Queen Bey, AKA Beyonce. Netflix is just the latest major streamer to push into live sporting events. And Amazon prime has Thursday Night Football, Apple has pro soccer, and that play can come with big rewards but also big risks. Marketplace's Megan McCarty Carino reports.

[Charles Schrager]

This may be Netflix's first entry into the big leagues of sports, but the streamer has been getting its reps in with some lower stakes live events like a roast of football legend Tom Brady and the much hyped boxing match between Internet celebrity Jake Paul and and 58 year old Mike Tyson last month.

[Amy Scott]

Are you ready to make history?

[Charles Schrager]

Netflix said 65 million subscribers around the world tuned in for the fight, the most streamed sporting event ever. But there were some hiccups.

[Amy Scott]

We couldn't get it going actually at our house for some reason.

[Charles Schrager]

Elizabeth Parks at market research firm Parks Associates, was one of many viewers who experienced technical difficulties on social media. Reports abounded of issues with buffering and low resolution.

[Amy Scott]

We drove over to friends across the street. They were also having problems, but they ended up throwing it from the phone to tv.

[Charles Schrager]

Streaming live events is technically difficult to plan for, says Dan Rayburn, an independent streaming media analyst.

[Michelle Evermore]

How do you prepare when you don't know how long people are going to watch for? How many people might tune in just for the Beyonce halftime show, and where are they going to come from?

[Charles Schrager]

Around the world, streaming platforms work with Internet service providers in advance to free up capacity. But Rayburn says there's not a lot of precedent.

[Michelle Evermore]

What Netflix is looking to do and the scale they're doing it at has never been done before.

[Charles Schrager]

So why even attempt? One answer is advertising, says Charles Schrager, a business professor at nyu.

[Michelle Evermore]

The NFL is, you know, the North Star. That is the one thing that consistently dominates television.

[Charles Schrager]

93% of the most watched broadcast programs last year were NFL games. And streamers are eager to intercept some of those eyeballs. I'm Megan McCarty Carino for Marketplace.

[Amy Scott]

The Fraser fir is one of the most popular Christmas tree varieties. They smell amazing, have a nice pyramid shape and hold onto their needles a good while. And in North Carolina, the trees are also a crucial economic asset for people in the state's rural mountain communities. 20% of the country's Christmas trees are grown there. The job of growing those trees has been tough lately. This year Hurricane Helene barreled through the region weeks before harvest season. Blue Ridge Public Radio's Laura Hackett has more.

[Laura Hackett]

D. Clark is kind of like the Santa Claus of Christmas trees. He's a white bearded farmer in the mountains of western North Carolina, where he oversees 400,000 Fraser fir trees.

[Sponsor Voice]

It's a big tradition in North Carolina. You come to the mountains and get a fresh cut. Fraser fir.

[Laura Hackett]

Frasier fir trees are native to Appalachia, and so is Clark. His grandfather was one of the first to start growing Christmas trees commercially. But in the last decade, he says, farming has become more challenging.

[Sponsor Voice]

To be a farmer anymore, you can't only just a good farmer. You have to be a good business person. And it is very hard to combine both.

[Laura Hackett]

The trees take 10 years to grow, so when things go wrong, like the historic floods from Hurricane Helene, the ripple effects can last for years.

[Sponsor Voice]

Business wise, we took a huge hit. We estimate our losses in the neighborhood of $3 million.

[Laura Hackett]

A lot of his property was damaged and flooding and landslides took out some of his seedlings what's really keeping Clark up at night, though, is a deadly fungus that he's expecting to bloom as a result of the floods.

[Sponsor Voice]

It's called Phytophora, and it's a microorganism that attacks the roots and causes the roots to die. And once you get it in your soil, you can't get it out.

[Laura Hackett]

Phytophora is fairly common. It kills houseplants and other crops too.

[Sponsor Voice]

Phytophthora, the Latin means plant destroyer.

[Laura Hackett]

That's Justin Whitehill, the director of North Carolina State's Christmas tree genetic program.

[Sponsor Voice]

There's really no solution for those trees that are out there. It's just gonna unfortunately lead to a mortality event for some of those trees.

[Laura Hackett]

The floodwaters probably helped Phytophthora travel.

[Sponsor Voice]

What we're worried about is where that pathogen was able to spread to some areas that have never had a problem with Phytophthora may now be more susceptible to it because the water spreaded around to those areas.

[Laura Hackett]

His research team has been looking for solutions, everything from genetic modification to complex grafting techniques for the trees.

[Sponsor Voice]

That's basically editing the DNA of the tree to try to make it more resistant to the pathogen that we're facing.

[Laura Hackett]

But those solutions are not here yet, and it'll be a few years before Christmas. Tree farmers know how much the fungus has spread. This year, though, there are still plenty of Fraser fir trees available for Christmas. Like here at the farmer's market in Asheville.

[Amy Scott]

Look at that one. It's beautiful. It's pretty.

[Laura Hackett]

It gives me the Christmas feeling.

[Sponsor Voice]

I want it.

[Laura Hackett]

9 year old Jessa Hager has found the perfect tree.

[Amy Scott]

This one, this one, this one, this one.

[Laura Hackett]

Let's get this one, sweetie. Her technique works. Her family leaves the market with a six foot tall bouncy Fraser fir tied to the roof rack of their car. Nearby, Christmas tree farmers Bob and Ray Hockset are helping other families pick out their trees.

[Sponsor Voice]

We're just blundering around the market.

[Laura Hackett]

The Hoxets are brothers who own their own farm. I asked Bob about the hardest part of growing Fraser firs.

[Sponsor Voice]

Maintaining your sanity. What am I thinking?

[Laura Hackett]

He loves growing trees, but there's a lot he can't control, like the flooding from hurricanes and the existential threat of fungus to destroying his crop. He says this business is kind of like gambling.

[Sponsor Voice]

Farmers are the highest rollers there are in the country. You know, you're always betting down the road and so you're betting that eight or ten years from now that somebody will want that tree.

[Laura Hackett]

For now, though lots of customers want his Fraser firs. By the end of the day, he's sold out in Asheville. I'm Laura Hackett from Marketplace.

[Sponsor Voice]

Coming up, when they walk in the stores of Casita del Campo, that's it. You're loved, you're embraced. You're treated with dignity.

[Amy Scott]

Where do I sign up? But first, let's do the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 390 points9.10% to finish at 43,297. The Nasdaq picked up 266 points1 and a third percent to land at 20,031. And the S P 500 gained 65 points1 and a tenth percent to close at 60 40. American Airlines added6.10%. A technical issue temporarily grounded all its flights. Earlier today, both Delta and United Airlines improved 1 and 7. 10%. This holiday season is expected to be a record one for travel. The Transportation Security Administration is expecting some 40 million travelers over the Christmas and New Year period. U.S. steel strengthened 1 and 9 10% after a committee of top government officials failed to reach a consensus on its proposed sale to Japan's Nippon Steel Corporation. President Biden will now make the call. Nippon Steel firmed up 9 10%. You're listening to Marketplace.

[Sponsor Voice]

There are over 1.5 million nonprofit organizations in the U.S. and millions more around the world. How do you know which ones can make the biggest impact with your donation? GiveWell was founded to help donors with that exact question. They pour over independent studies and charity data to help donors direct their funds to evidence backed organizations that are saving and improving lives. GiveWell wants as many donors as possible to make informed decisions about high impact giving. You can find all their research and recommendations on their site for free. You can make tax deductible donations to their recommended funds and charities. And GiveWell doesn't take a cut. If you've never used GiveWell to donate, you can have your donation match up to $100 before the end of the year or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick podcast and enter Marketplace at the checkout. Make sure they know that you heard about GiveWell from Marketplace to get your donation matched again. That's givewell.org to donate or find out more.

[Amy Scott]

Doors take us to summers away or winter adventures and afternoon getaways. Your dedicated Fidelity advisor can help you open those doors by working with you on a comprehensive plan to help you reach your wealth's full potential. Because doors were meant to be opened, visit fidelity.com Wealth Investment Minimum Supply Fidelity.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Brokerage Services LLC Member NYSE SIPC Create.

[Umair Irfan]

Your Oasis with Thuma, a modern design company that specializes in furniture and home goods. By stripping away everything but the essential, Thuma makes simple elevated pieces with premium materials and intentional details to enrich life at home. Thuma's core collection, the classic bed, nest, dresser and pillar bookshelf combines craftsmanship, simplicity and functionality, bringing inspiration and purpose to every home. Using the technique of Japanese joinery, Thuma's furniture is crafted from solid wood and precision cut for a silent stable foundation. Assembly takes just 5ish minutes, no tools required. Each piece features eco friendly natural materials in four neutral finishes to match any design aesthetic made to last a lifetime with a warranty to match and Greenguard Gold certified for cleaner indoor air. To explore Thuma's entire collection, visit Thuma Co or the flagship location in New York City. Pieces ship quickly and arrive straight to your door. To get $100 towards your first bed purchase, go to Thuma co. That's t h u m a co to receive $100 off your first bed purchase.

[Amy Scott]

This is Marketplace. I'm Amy Scott. This month noaa, the national oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, released its annual Arctic Report Card and the news was not good. NOAA reported that after storing carbon dioxide in its frozen soil for millennia, the Arctic tundra is now becoming a source of carbon emissions. Umair Irfan is a correspondent covering climate change for Vox, where he wrote about the changing tundra. Welcome to the program.

[Michelle Evermore]

Hi Amy, thanks for having me.

[Amy Scott]

So for people who aren't familiar with this region, talk about what the Arctic tundra is. What does it look like? What region are we talking about?

[Michelle Evermore]

Well, it's a region in the northern latitudes. It is a vast treeless plain. It actually covers about 20% of the planet's land area, so it's actually quite large. But the vegetation on there tends to grow very slowly because in the Arctic, of course, the winters are very long. That slow cycle of growth actually gives it this really strong power of being able to capture carbon from the atmosphere and store it for very long periods of time. And the soil beneath it is usually frozen year round. And so that acts as a critical mechanism, stalling sort of the cycle of carbon and making sure it withdraws more than it deposits into the atmosphere.

[Amy Scott]

So that has changed as the tundra becomes a net emitter of carbon instead of a sink. What is the impact of that and why has that happened?

[Michelle Evermore]

Well, the planet as a whole has been warming up and that has had some of its most profound Effects in the Arctic regions. The Arctic is actually warming anywhere from two to four times faster than the rest of the planet. But yes, as we've seen the Arctic warm, we've seen a number of different mechanisms starting to play out, particularly with the soil, the permafrost layer, the year round frozen layer of soil, is starting to become less permanent. It's starting to thaw out in the warmer seasons. And with that, that means microbes in the soil start digesting a lot of the carbon and the vegetation that's there. And as they do that, they start to emit carbon dioxide and methane. Recently, the national oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, according to their analysis, they found out that basically over the past decade, the tundra has now become a net emitter, that there's more carbon dioxide coming out of the soil, coming out of the tundra and going into the atmosphere that is being absorbed. That has some pretty important effects for the rest of the planet. Obviously, it means that this ecosystem that we were counting as a sink is now a source. And that can also create more of an amplification and sort of a feedback loop that leads to even more warming.

[Amy Scott]

Talk about the role that wildfires play in this. I was surprised to hear how many wildfires have been in the region in recent years.

[Michelle Evermore]

Right. A lot of people don't seem to associate fire with the Arctic because it tends to be very cold. But fire is a natural part of the ecosystem. We do see, have historically seen wildfires in places like the tundra. They don't tend to be very frequent or happen very often. But more recently we've been seeing the pace of wildfires picking up. And that also puts that carbon back into the atmosphere that the vegetation was previously absorbing. And so this increase, this uptick in wildfire activity we've seen in the Arctic in the tundra regions is a big reason why we've seen this tipping from being a sink to a source in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.

[Amy Scott]

Wow. Well, I want to talk about some of the economic factors here, because as the Arctic warms, there's just more oil and gas development going on. Is that just going to lead to more warming and kind of feed this cycle potentially?

[Michelle Evermore]

You know, the Arctic is, you know, we tend to think of it as this frigid, desolate expanse, but there are about 4 million people that live north of the Arctic Circle. There's a lot of mining activity already going on there. There are indigenous communities that live there. It's also potentially an important shipping route. And of course, with the retraction of sea ice. That means that there's more resources offshore and onshore that they can access. But crucially, oil and gas development is also driven by the market. And so even though they may have access to the oil and gas that's available there, it's still a pretty expensive place to do that kind of extraction work. And it really only makes sense for companies when oil prices are really high. Right now, we have actually kind of an abundance of oil and gas on the global market. So even as this resource becomes more accessible, it's not a guarantee that companies are really going to be chomping at the bit to try to start drilling. They're going to probably wait for gas prices to go back up and, and then maybe start doing more development work there.

[Amy Scott]

So we hear a lot about this concept of tipping points in climate change. And the thawing of the permafrost is one of those. How frightening is this report card to you? As someone who covers climate change, I.

[Michelle Evermore]

Would say it's definitely concerning, but I wouldn't go as far as to call it frightening. Some of the scientists I talked to were a little wary of using the term tipping point here. And one of the scientists I spoke to about this actually made the point that, you know, this is potentially still a reversible thing, that if we are able to, you know, limit our output of greenhouse gases, that potentially we could see the balance tip back in the other direction. You know, the past decade has been exceptionally warm, and the past two years have been the hottest on record. That doesn't necessarily mean that the next year will also be even hotter. You know, part of the reason we saw the exceptionally hot years in 2024 and 2023 was because of El Nino. And we expect that fever to sort of break. But the momentum is moving in the direction that the Arctic is becoming less able to absorb carbon over time. That much is definitely true. That does potentially add up to a scenario where we see far more consequential effects, even far south in much lower latitudes, because the Arctic is actually really important for regulating climate and weather in other parts of the planet.

[Amy Scott]

Umair Irfan covers climate change for vox. Thank you so much for your reporting.

[Michelle Evermore]

My pleasure. Thank you again for having me.

[Amy Scott]

We've got a podcast all about climate solutions you should check out. It's called How We Survive, Available wherever you listen to podcasts. Sit down. Restaurant chains have been having a tough time this year. More than a dozen high profile names like Red Lobster and TGI Fridays filed for bankruptcy. Others have been rolling out value deals to get people in the doors. But some old school restaurants have stayed afloat. And the holidays are an important time of year when people dine out more and are drawn to tradition. Corrine Ruff has this story from Los Angeles.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

When you step into Monte Carlo Italian deli in Burbank, California, you'll see wooden Pinocchio statues everywhere. It's a nod to the name of the attached cafeteria style restaurant. It's no frills, big portions. You can get a glass of red wine for just $4.25. Kathy Hampel is standing in line at the deli. She's at Monte Carlo to stock up for the holidays.

[Sponsor Voice]

I love their sausage. It tastes like ours.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Hampel has been coming here since the 70s and she says it's like a second home.

[Amy Scott]

And it's just a good feeling because.

[Sponsor Voice]

I see Italian people talking to Chang, which I haven't heard for years.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

It's cozy, it's comfy, and that's a big reason why people come to restaurants, restaurants like this during the holidays. Anthony Scuticchio took over the business from his father in law. He says Christmas Eve week gets a little hectic. The catering business is flooded with hundreds of pickup orders for lasagna and eggplant parmesan. And the deli business triples.

[Sponsor Voice]

People come in here on 22nd of December and they pull a number and they have to wait maybe an hour and a half for the number to get called, but they have a good time with it.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

He says customers are willing to wait for a traditional meal. Plus occasionally celebrities make appearances. Jay Leno sometimes comes by and tells jokes in line, which keeps the mood light. But Monte Carlo, like a lot of restaurants, has been struggling with inflation. Scouticchio has had to raise prices. That cheap glass of red wine cost $0.30 more than it did last year.

[Sponsor Voice]

If a piece of cheese goes up, so you raise the price. But what do you do when your gas bill goes from when it doubles? What are you doing? Your electricity bill goes up. I mean, those are the things that are hard to calculate.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

But he's hoping his customers will stick with him, in part because of nostalgia. Hudson Reely, senior vice president of research at the National Restaurant association, says when people do go out, they want a unique experience. And younger generations are leaning into the restaurant model from the 1950s to 1970s.

[Sponsor Voice]

You know, there's a saying in the industry that's what's old is new again.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

He says restaurants can count on a healthy sales boost between Thanksgiving and New Year's. Last year Holiday spending at restaurants was up almost 8% compared to the year before, according to Mastercard's Spending Pulse Indicator. Part of that is thanks to holiday get togethers those keep business chugging along. At 62 year old Mexican restaurant Casita del Campo in La Silver Lake neighborhood.

[Sponsor Voice]

So many celebrations are happening. Thank God.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Owner Robert Del Campo took over the restaurant from his parents. Over the years it became a safe haven for the queer community and that welcoming atmosphere is still at the heart of the business.

[Sponsor Voice]

When they walk in the stores of Casita del Campo, that's it. You're loved, you're embraced, you're treated with dignity.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

People also come for the fresh food, like the chilies and Nogada. They make it special for the holidays because of its festive red, white and green colors, which also represent the Mexican can flag.

[Sponsor Voice]

It's a chili poblano that's stuffed with different kinds of meat and spices and on top of the walnut sauce is fresh pomegranate seeds.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Del Campo says it's been really difficult the last few years. Overall revenue is down. Competing restaurants are popping up in the neighborhood. He's had to cut back on overtime hours and dip into savings, but he's grateful that his late father had the foresight to buy the land so at least there's no mortgage on the business. And it helps having the long view of a restaurant that's weathered decades of change. Bel Campo still leans on advice from his late father.

[Sponsor Voice]

You can't do anything about what's going on over there or over here over there. You just gotta focus on your space.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

In other words, in an industry always looking for the next big thing, restaurants might be better off playing up what they already have. In Los Angeles, I'm Corinne Ruff for Marketplace.

[Amy Scott]

This final note on the way out today. Christmas Day is traditionally a big date for movies, so how about a look at the box office this year? Several films are opening in theaters tomorrow, including the horror remake Nosferatu, Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and boxing story the Fire Inside. Deadline reports the holiday week could bring in $280 million in ticket sales, comparable to last year. For the year, Hollywood is on track to bring in $8.75 billion, not bad for an industry still recovering from last year's writer and actor strikes. Our Digital and On Demand team includes Kerry Barber, Jordan Mangee, Dylan Mietanen, Janet Wynn, Olga Oxman, Ellen Rolfus, Virginia K. Smith and Tony Wagner. Francesca Levy is the executive director of Digital and On Demand, and I'm Amy Scott. We'll be back tomorrow. This is apn.

[Michelle Evermore]

I'm Sasha Polico Saransky, deputy editor at Foreign Policy. And in my new show, I bring together diplomats, journalists, academics and activists from across the globe.

[Sponsor Voice]

I think it's an act of war.

[Michelle Evermore]

Lots of countries go to war and give them the chance to debate serious issues that really get to the heart of the world's biggest dilemmas.

[Sponsor Voice]

That's not true.

[Amy Scott]

That's not true. Look, diplomacy has been going on.

[Michelle Evermore]

That's Counterpoint, a new podcast from Foreign Policy in partnership with the Doha Forum, available now. Wherever you get your podcasts.