Rich foods

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Episode Summary: "Rich Foods" Release Date: December 11, 2024
Host: Kai Ryssdal

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1. Inflation Trends and Economic Analysis

Timestamp: 01:00 - 04:01

In the episode's opening segment, Kai Ryssdal delves into the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, highlighting a 0.3% increase in inflation for the past month. Over the past three months, annual inflation has risen from 2.4% in September to 2.7% in November.

Omar Sharif, President of Inflation Insights, acknowledges anomalies in the data, attributing fluctuations partly to outliers like hotel rate spikes and car rental price drops. He notes, “If you kind of tune these extremes out, price inflation in November wasn't 3.10%. It was closer to 2.10%” (02:02).

Eric Winograd, Chief Economist at Alliance Bernstein, observes a significant moderation in shelter inflation, with rent increasing by 3.10% month-over-month in November. He remarks, “It suggests that things are moving in the right direction” (03:29).

However, Jeffrey Roach of LPL Financial points out that excluding housing, consumer prices are up approximately 1.6% year-over-year, indicating a more controlled inflation environment but emphasizing that the reduction to healthy levels is taking longer than anticipated (03:30).

2. Rising Food Prices and Consumer Behavior

Timestamp: 04:01 - 06:48

The discussion shifts to food prices, with groceries at home seeing a 0.5% month-over-month increase in November. Ricky Volpe, an agribusiness professor at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, forecasts that 2024 will see food price inflation at about 1.2-1.3%, significantly below historical norms. He states, “2024 is a year of significantly below average food price inflation” (05:02).

Despite these projections, consumers continue to feel the pinch. Nada Sanders from Northeastern University attributes the volatility in meat prices to factors like avian flu affecting poultry and climate change impacting crop yields. Tom Bailey, a senior analyst at Rabba Bank, observes a notable drop in restaurant transactions by 6% in the third quarter, signaling a shift in consumer dining habits (06:18).

Jonathan Poirot, a professor and chef at Johnson and Wales University, shares how chefs are adapting to these changes by reducing meat usage in recipes, emphasizing cost-effective and sustainable alternatives (06:48).

3. The Future of Autonomous Vehicles: Waymo's Impact

Timestamp: 07:12 - 12:17

Kimberly Adams reports on Waymo’s operations in Los Angeles, offering an in-depth look at the autonomous ride-hailing service. John Gravois from Wired and his team spent a day trailing a Waymo vehicle to understand its future implications.

During their investigation, they hired an Uber driver, Gabe, to facilitate the chase. Gabe, a seasoned professional with 30 years of driving experience, shares his initial skepticism towards Waymo. However, over the day, he observes that Waymo’s driving patterns mirror those of human drivers, being both aggressive and cautious as needed (09:22).

John Gravois comments on the economic challenges faced by Waymo, noting that despite significant investment, the unit economics remain uncertain. He mentions, “Ridership rates are going up so fast that that study is already well out of date” (11:13). The team also discusses the scalability of Waymo’s operations and the rapid increase in rides from 100,000 to 150,000 per month (11:49).

4. The Childcare Crisis: Personal Stories and Economic Implications

Timestamp: 15:42 - 21:16

Addressing the escalating costs of childcare, Stacey Vanek Smith highlights the plight of Amber Lorde, who faced exorbitant daycare expenses of $25,000 annually for her child. Unable to afford full-time daycare, Lorde made the difficult decision to leave her cherished marketing career, resulting in financial and emotional strain (16:18).

Lauren Bauer from the Brookings Institution explains the systemic issues contributing to the crisis, noting, “We give people 20 years to save up for college and we give them no time to save up for childcare” (16:18). The expiration of the Biden administration’s $24 billion childcare subsidy and the cooling job market have further exacerbated the situation, leading to a significant drop in labor force participation among mothers (16:18).

Claudia Goldin, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, emphasizes that lowering childcare costs is crucial for supporting female labor force participation. She cites examples from Sweden, Canada, France, and Germany, where subsidized childcare has positively impacted women’s employment rates (16:18).

Despite these challenges, Amber Lorde successfully pivoted to freelance consulting, replacing her previous income within a year. She reflects, “Every day I'm doing something that I enjoy doing. It is continually what fuels me each and every day” (21:16).

5. Supply Chain Challenges and Future Outlook

Timestamp: 21:16 - 24:13

As the episode approaches its conclusion, Henry Epp discusses impending supply chain complications anticipated in the New Year. The expiration of a temporary agreement between dock workers and port operators on the East Coast, coupled with potential tariff implementations under the incoming administration, threatens to disrupt import flows (21:16).

The National Retail Federation reports rising imports as companies attempt to preempt these disruptions. Jason Miller from Michigan State University notes that while increased warehouse capacity was a positive outcome of the pandemic-induced supply chain issues, the rapid influx of goods now is straining railroad systems on the West Coast (22:13).

Ian Britton, managing industrial real estate for CBRE in Southern California, observes that companies have shifted their operations westward in response to East Coast strike threats, leading to an oversupply of warehouse space. However, the strain on railroads has stressed the trucking sector, which remains a flexible alternative to alleviate pressure (22:13).

6. Career Transitions in the Modern Economy: A Personal Story

Timestamp: 24:13 - 28:27

In the "My Economy" segment, Dr. Michelle McKinney Jones, a faculty fellow at Belmont University, shares her experience of transitioning from a 31-year corporate career to higher education at age 55. She highlights the challenges and rewards of starting anew, stating, “The decision that I made to go into higher ed, does it outweigh all of those other things? Absolutely” (27:08).

Dr. Jones emphasizes the fulfillment she derives from teaching and mentoring students, contrasting her passion for education with the financial sacrifices involved. Her story underscores the broader theme of career adaptability and the pursuit of personal satisfaction over financial gain in later life stages (24:45).

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Conclusion

This episode of Marketplace offers a comprehensive exploration of current economic challenges, from inflation and rising food and childcare costs to the future of autonomous vehicles and supply chain disruptions. Through expert insights and personal narratives, host Kai Ryssdal provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of how these issues impact everyday life and the broader economy.

Listen to the full episode here.

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Note: All timestamps refer to the original podcast transcript provided.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Well, let's see. Is inflation bumpy? Is it stuck? There's gotta be a word from American Public Media. This is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Ky Rysdal. It is Wednesday today, December 11th. Good as nice to have you along, everybody. Today's Macroeconomic Word of the day is stall in its verb form, to stop or cause to stop. Making progress. The subject at hand, of course, is inflation, which rose 0.3% last month. So said this morning's consumer price index.

[A]

3.

[B]

10% is, as it happens, the biggest bump we've seen since spring. And year over year, inflation is up three months in a row. So how worried ought we be if at all marketplaces Sabri Benishore gets us going.

[A]

Annual inflation back in September was 2.4%. Then in October, the number grew to 2.6%. Then in November, it grew again to 2.7%. So should we not be, I don't know, a little bit freaked out by that? I don't think so. Omar Sharif is president of research firm Inflation Insights. There's a lot of data that went into November's inflation number, and some of it was a little wack, a doodle maybe threw off the final number. A little. Hotel rates today in the data in November went up. On an annualized basis, they went up 45%. That is a wild number. Similarly, on the on the negative side, if you wanted to rent a car or truck on an annualized basis, those prices declined by 31%. Today, Sharif says if you kind of tune these extremes out, price inflation in November wasn't 3. 10%. It was closer to 2. 10%. So that's much more encouraging. One of the biggest pieces of the inflation pie is the cost of having a roof over your head. And that is starting to look okay. Eric Winograd is chief economist at Alliance Bernstein. What we've seen over the last few months is a significant moderation in shelter inflation. Rent and other shelter prices in November went up 3.10of a percent from the month before, which is higher than you might like to see, but much lower than it has been. And it suggests that things are moving in the right direction. But a lot of people have issues with the rent data. It can lag by a year and.

[B]

A half, for example.

[A]

So some economists like to take it out of the inflation equation just to see what happens. Jeffrey Roach is one of them. He's chief economist at LPL Financial. So I look at excluding housing, consumer prices are roughly 1.6% up from a year ago. Meaning it's a lot more reasonable and not really worthy of a freak out moment. Not a freak out moment, but also not totally sleeping easy either. It's definitely taking longer than people thought to get inflation down to a healthy level. In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore for Marketplace.

[B]

I'll take not a freak out moment. Thank you, Wall Street. Today, tech was the place to be. We will have the details when we do the number. It's both a truism and a principle of this program that economic headlines on, say, inflation might say things are mostly okay. But if people are not feeling that mostly okay in their everyday, then the headlines just don't matter. Inflation is slowing. Bumpy, but slowing. But when you're grocery shopping, those food prices still sting a little bit. Prices for food at home, economists speak for groceries, were up half a percent month on month in November. Marketplace's Kimberly Adams reports now on what that means for what people are putting on the dinner table.

[A]

It may be cold comfort, but says Ricky Volpe, who teaches agribusiness at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, 2024 is a year of significantly below average food price inflation, where food prices will probably end up about 1.2, 1.3% above where they were in 2023. So actually about half that historical norm. And he gets it. It doesn't feel like things are normal or affordable when you're shopping at the store. People are looking for food prices to come down. And I mean, I should just say that that's probably not going to happen. That's because at least some of the factors contributing to higher food prices are things like climate change, droughts that impact crop yields and meat prices. Beef prices were up more than 3% last month. And when it comes to poultry, says Nada Sanders, who teaches supply chain management at Northeastern University, the avian flu is something that has impacted hens, chickens, and then, of course, eggs. And so we've seen those prices be really volatile. And consumers have been responding to the higher prices, adjusting their diets accordingly and definitely cutting back on going out. Tom Bailey is a senior analyst for consumer foods at Rabba Bank.

[B]

We are seeing a lot less demand for going out to restaurants.

[A]

Transactions at restaurants were down 6% in the third quarter of this year, and even chefs are taking notice. Jonathan Poirot is a professor and chef at Johnson and Wales University, teaching students to design meal plans and recipes. He says a lot of those now include less meat, including some of his own cooking. I was making some Mediterranean food the other night. Instead of using lamb or beef, I.

[B]

Ended up just doing roasted chickpeas as.

[A]

The main protein source in the dish. Throw in a little sumac, lemon zest and tahini and he says it was delicious. In Washington, I'm Kimberly Adams for Marketplace.

[B]

Waymo, the autonomous ride hailing company, opened up shop here in LA about a month ago. If you've never seen them, they are quite something. All white electric SUVs, Jaguars as it happens, covered with cameras and sensors pointing every different direction and a very empty, noticeably so driver's seat. The company, a subsidiary of Alphabet, is betting billions of dollars that they are the future of automotive transportation. John Gravois and a team at Wired spend a day tailing a Waymo car to see what that future might look like. John, thanks for being here.

[A]

Thank you very much.

[B]

Well, of course, anything is better than sitting around the office or in your living room in front of your computer. Why did you guys decide to do this?

[A]

Well, San Francisco has a history in car chase cinema and we figured that the best way to make self driving cars strange again for us was to go chase one.

[B]

So we should say, we should say here. It's old hat to you guys in San Francisco, but unless you're in San Francisco, I guess. Where's the other one? Phoenix. And I've seen some here in la. It's a foreign thing for a whole lot of people.

[A]

Exactly. That's what we wanted to. We wanted to restrange ify it.

[B]

All right, so talk methodology here. How'd you go about it?

[A]

So we hired an Uber driver to drive a chase car with a bunch of us in it and picked a Waymo by summoning it on the Waymo app and then tailed it. And the plan was to have the journalists, some of us, get out of the car and interview riders as they were let out, which we did. But it took a little while for the Waymo to pick up anybody.

[B]

Yeah, I was gonna say, I mean, it's, you know, I don't want to spoil it as much as you can spoil a magazine article, but it was a tad anticlimactic.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, it was, it was, it was interesting in itself to go from one weird staging lot full of empty self driving cars to another for the first several hours of the day. But that's what we did.

[B]

What kinds of reactions did you get from people once you tracked them down? What'd they say about their experience in this driverless car?

[A]

You know, that it was pretty, it was pretty uniform and impressive how much people just love it. They just like the experience of the drive, I guess, is a little bit less herky jerky than with a human driver. But I think a lot of it just comes down to people are just kind of relieved not to have to talk to somebody else. As sad as that is. Especially it was sad for us because we were having a great conversation in our chase car.

[B]

Tell me about Gabe, your Uber driver, and his thoughts on this whole thing, because that was super interesting.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. So Gabe, this is a guy whose labor is directly at stake. He's the guy whose labor is going to be replaced by a Waymo. He's a guy who's had 30 years of experience as a professional driver, first as a taxi driver. He even organized a taxi driver's strike in the days before Uber, and his first. I think his prejudice with Waymo is having shared the road with him, you know, sort of sporadically. He thought of them as kind of dopey rule following frustrating vehicles to share the road with. But over the course of the day, he started to recognize that the Waymo was driving a lot like a taxi driver. The Waymo was doing things that were aggressive, that are exactly the kinds of things that a taxi driver is trained to be aggressive with and doing things that were cautious, that are exactly the kinds of things that taxi drivers are trained to be cautious with.

[B]

Can we talk unit economics here? Just as a matter of. This is of course going to be a business. Waymo is. According to the math from a study you guys cite, they're not making a whole lot of money per vehicle. Eventually they're going to scale and it's going to work out. But for the moment, even though they've gotten 11 billion something dollars, they're not turning a Whole lot of profit here.

[A]

Yeah, that's a big question. The math. Even that study is based on a lot of guesswork. It's really hard to say what the unit economics are. What we can say is that the ridership rates are going up so fast that that study is already well out of date. When we were doing our chase, I think the monthly ridership for Waymo was 100,000 rides a month. By October, it was already 150,000 rides a month. So the economics are just shifting under our feet a lot.

[B]

Yeah. Are you among the Waymo rider faithful? Have you done it? What'd you think?

[A]

I do not have an account of my own, but I've been on rides with other people and you know, it was that experience. It was. You get, you're a little nervy when you step in and then very quickly it becomes normal.

[B]

Yeah. Yeah. John Gravois in Wired with a whole team of people following a Waymo around for a day. John, thanks a bunch.

[A]

Thank you. Coming up, while some might think, you know, you should be enjoying retirement, guess what? I am.

[B]

If you love what you do, you will never work a day in your life. Right. First though, let's do the numbers. Dow industrials off 99 points today. Two 10% finished at 44,148. The Nasdaq surged 347. One and eight tenths percent. 20,034. Nasdaq passing the 20,000 barrier for the first time. The S&P 500 added 49 points, eight tenths percent. 6,000. So 6,084 rather 6,084. Among the categories where prices are rising, getting back to inflation. Housing, food furnishing used in new vehicles and healthcare. So in no particular order, Mid America apartment communities, one of the biggest owners of rental housing in the United states, down a 10th percent. General Mills, maker of everything from cereal to snacks, descended 1%. Wayfair, one of the biggest online furniture retailers, up 4/10 of 1% today. You're listening to Marketplace.

[A]

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[B]

Vanta.Com marketplace PM this is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. All right, here's another data point from today's CPI. The cost of childcare last month went up 6/10 of 1%. To be clear, that is not year over year. That is November alone. And that kind of increase has been happening for years. The average cost to enroll a child in licensed daycare in this country is more than $15,000 per child per year. And that's affecting parents exactly the way you'd think it's affecting parents, maybe more so. Stacey Vanek Smith has that one.

[A]

Amber Lorde knew she wanted to keep working after she had her baby. She was in her late 30s and she had a career she loved in marketing. But when Lorde and her husband started looking at daycares near their home in Virginia beach, they ran into a problem. They were 25,000 a year and that was for four days a week. And even on those four days, daycare didn't cover an eight hour workday. They would need supplemental care on top of that. We were like, okay, we can't this, we can't make this make sense. Like I would just be working 100% of the time to have my child in childcare 100% of the time. Lord's husband was the bigger earner, but her paycheck was vital. They needed her income to afford their mortgage. We might have lost our house. I mean, it was that bad. And Lourd wasn't going to be able to shift her position to part time. The stress got so bad, Lorde started to worry it was affecting her pregnancy. So I left. Lourd had just walked away from a job she loved, and her family's money situation was now very shaky. I came home and I sat in a new house that we just bought. And I'm just sitting here crying, pregnant and just feeling like there's no village. There is no village. Like I live in a country where they don't, they don't care. The cost of preschool and daycare has risen by about 26% since 2019, according to the government's monthly inflation numbers. Lorde says it's created a crisis. When she posted about her dilemma on TikTok, thousands of women wrote to her. So many other mothers told me this. It makes more sense financially for them to stay home and take care of the baby and just live strapped on their husband's paycheck. Lorde also hears from women who have had to keep working, but because they couldn't afford the childcare they wanted, were forced to leave their children in situations they did not always feel great about. Lorde says she hears these stories every day about how the rising cost of childcare is forcing women to make really tough choices. You're asking young families to spend, you know, a college tuition to have their child taken care of. Lauren Bauer is an economist with the Brookings Institution. We give people 20 years to save up for college and we give them no time to save up for childcare. She says all of this is happening right after mothers had been entering the workforce in record numbers. This post Covid environment was really good for women and we got this boost of additional childcare funds, the boost of telework flexibility, the boost of a hot labor market, and we are seeing all of those things dissipate. The money has definitely dissipated. The Biden administration's $24 billion childcare subsidy expired last year. At the same time, the cooling job market has companies scaling back flexible work. The results, the share of working mothers with children under five has dropped from nearly 71% last year to 68%. What that meant, that's hundreds of thousands of women dropping out of the labor force. In the past 18 months, Nobel Prize winning economist Claudia Goldin has spent her career studying women work and the labor market. She says the biggest thing any country can do to support women working is to lower childcare costs. Every country that has highly subsidized child care has pretty high levels of female labor force participation. Sweden being a good example. Also, Canada, France and Germany have all seen women's labor participation increase after government subsidies reduce childcare costs. Back in Virginia Beach, a very pregnant and newly unemployed Amber Lord decided she would make her own job. She used her skills in social media and marketing to start a consulting business. I really went hard so I pretty much replaced my previous income like within the first year. That would be Lorde's two year old son Henry in the background. He's running around chatty. As much as Lorde has loved being home with Henry, she does wish she could have him in daycare part time because we just spend every waking moment together face to face, which is, you know, great. It's very cool. I love him to pieces. He's the best thing that's ever happened to me. But just to give me some free time to work, to get things done or just to rest. In New York, I'm Stacy Banik Smith for Marketplace.

[B]

While one predicts the future at one's peril, it's entirely possible that the work of getting goods into and around this economy could get a lot more expensive and complicated in the New Year for two reasons. First, on 15 January, a temporary agreement between dock workers and port operators on the east coast expires. That was the deal you'll remember that the two sides made after that quick strike back in October. And reason number two is that five days after that, on January 20, President elect Donald Trump takes office, bringing with him those promises of broad based tariffs. Which gets us to this. The National Retail Federation reported this week that imports have been rising and could remain high as companies try to get ahead of those disruptions. I know you thought, perhaps hoped that supply chain stories were a thing of the past, but higher imports are going to stress all the links in the supply chain, shipping, trucking, even warehouse space marketplaces. Henry Epp reports.

[A]

One good result of the mess the pandemic made of the supply chain is that companies invested in more capacity. But it took a while, says Jason Miller at Michigan State University, to go from the idea of we would like to put a warehouse in this location to having a facility open that can now store goods. That is an extended process. Now that extra warehouse capacity ordered a few years ago is available, says Joe Dunlap at Legacy Investing there's been a ample amount of warehousing space for the past 12 months or so, which means all that stuff coming into the US right now has a place to get stored, and a lot of it is coming to the west coast, says Ian Britton. He manages industrial real estate for CBRE in Southern California. The companies that we've interviewed are taken in anywhere from 20 to 25% more finished goods and components in anticipation of tariffs. Britain says companies have also shifted west because of the strike threats in the East. Normally, he says, all those extra imports would translate to an uptick in companies leasing out that available warehouse space. But it hasn't just resulted in that direct correlation of leasing volume like we've typically seen in typical cycles. That ample warehouse space is now verging on a glut, one part of the supply chain that's a bit tight, says Jason Miller at Michigan State, are railroads in the West. They've been busy transporting those record volumes of freight from Western ports, and that type of prolonged strain does cause some kinks to emerge in the system. For now, he says, if the railroads get too tied up, there's plenty of capacity in the trucking sector, too, which can take the pressure off. I'm Henry Epp for Marketplace.

[B]

I know I ended the program yesterday with a report from Pew Research showing a majority of you are satisfied with your jobs. Counterpoint, a survey from Gallup that says 51% of American workers are watching for or actively seeking a new job. So maybe the grass is always greener. But making that leap into a new job or a career can be daunting. And it can be daunting no matter how old you are. Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy.

[A]

I am Dr. Michelle McKinney Jones, and I am a faculty fellow in management at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee. So after 31 years in corporate America and at the age of 55, I retired and made a career switch into higher education on July 1st. Being in one profession for 31 years gives you an appreciation for that profession. And it's also something that never leaves you, right? I often have my HR hat on when I'm sitting in faculty meetings. Maybe there's a comment that said, and I'm like, ooh, I'm glad I'm not in HR right now to be able to address that. Or, you know, maybe it's something that a student says if we're doing an exercise in how they're role playing as an HR professional. And perhaps they say something that I'm able to advise them to say, hey, that would not be an appropriate comment. Let's talk about how we can either say that differently or do that differently to make sure that we get the desired outcome. So, yeah, I'm always wearing my HR hat, but now I get to wear two. Certainly the salary as a faculty fellow does not compare to what I made in the corporate space. And so there's, you know, there's some adjustment there. But the decision that I made to go into higher ed, does it outweigh all of those other things? Absolutely. And so would I do anything different? Absolutely not. And while some might think, you know, you should be enjoying retirement, guess what? I am. Every day I'm doing something that I enjoy doing. And it is continually what fuels me each and every day. And when I see a look on the student's face when a light bulb goes off on something that we're talking about and they finally get it, that's the most rewarding thing ever. It's the best. It is the absolute best.

[B]

Dr. Michelle McKinney Jones. She is a faculty fellow at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee. Here's a true story. I started as an intern in public radio when I was 34, two careers behind me, so it can work out. Tell us what's going on with you, would you? You can do it at marketplace.org myeconomy this final note on the way out today. After the idea was approved by team owners back in August today the deal finally got done. The NFL's Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins have each sold minority ownership stakes, 10% to be exact, to different private equity groups. Key points of the approval are that those stakes have to be held for at least six years and one private equity group can hold interest in as many as six teams. There is a teensy tiny bit of what could possibly go wrong here rattling around in the back o my brain. Our media production team includes Brian Allison, Jake Cherry, Justin Dueler, Drew Jostat, Dario Keefe, Charlton Thorpe, Juan Carlos Tirado, and Becca Weinman. Jeff Peters is the manager of media production and I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is apm.

[A]

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