The economy that could be

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Summary: "The Economy That Could Be"
Release Date: January 30, 2025
Host: Kai Ryssdal

---

Introduction

In the January 30, 2025 episode of Marketplace, host Kai Ryssdal delves into the current state and future potential of the U.S. economy. Amidst significant national events, including a tragic airport crash, the podcast primarily focuses on economic growth, the Federal Reserve's strategic planning, the evolving landscape of AI in search engines, and the profound impacts of an aging workforce illustrated through a visit to Cumberland County, Tennessee.

---

1. Strong Economic Growth Amid Challenges

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth

The episode opens with an analysis of the U.S. economy's resilience, highlighting a 2.8% GDP growth in 2024. This growth is notably driven by robust consumer spending, the fastest pace in two years, despite lingering inflation and high interest rates.

Consumer Spending Dynamics

Kristen Schwab, Marketplace reporter, interviews economists to unpack this phenomenon:

• John Lear (Morning Consult Economist) emphasizes the balance between goods and services spending, stating, “It sort of underscores the strength of the consumer” (02:32).

• Andrew Levin (Dartmouth Economist) suggests that interest rates might need to be higher to effectively slow down spending but acknowledges that the monetary policy hasn’t been as restrictive as anticipated (02:59).

• Jim Wilcox (UC Berkeley Economist) points out that many Americans are benefiting from increased wages, stock market gains, and rising home values, which have offset the dampening effects of high borrowing costs (03:03).

• Melina Fisher, Administrator of the Palace Theater in Crossville, Tennessee, illustrates how consumer confidence translates into spending on leisure activities: “If your two and a half percent mortgage rate means you're paying hundreds of dollars a month less than your new next door neighbor, why not take the family out for ice cream tonight?” (03:41).

Key Insight: The collective sentiment among economists is that positive financial factors for consumers have outweighed the negatives, sustaining economic growth despite higher interest rates.

---

2. Federal Reserve’s Strategic Economic Modeling

Understanding the Teal Book

The podcast transitions to an insightful discussion about the Federal Reserve’s economic forecasting tools. Kai Ryssdal references a question posed to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the modeling of potential mass deportations and their economic impact. Powell responds by mentioning the "teal book," an internal Fed report used to evaluate alternative economic scenarios.

Historical Context and Purpose

• Justin Ho (Marketplace Reporter) explains the evolution of the Fed’s documentation:

  “The Fed used to have even more books with colorful covers... a couple decades ago, the Fed decided to merge those books. And when you combine blue and green, you get teal.” (04:29).

• Seth Carpenter (Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist) and Claudia Somm (Chief Economist at New Century Advisors) highlight the teal book’s role in preparing for various economic scenarios, ensuring the Fed remains adaptable.

• Frederick Mishkin (Columbia Professor and Former Fed Governor) adds, “If things actually turn out to be different than you expected, [the teal book] will help you actually change your decision process, maybe at the next meeting” (05:51).

Key Insight: The teal book allows the Federal Reserve to proactively consider and prepare for a range of economic outcomes, enhancing its ability to respond effectively to unforeseen events.

---

3. The AI Search Wars: Bing vs. Google

Market Dominance and User Behavior

Two years post the launch of Microsoft's AI-powered Bing, the episode explores why Google still commands 90% of the global search market share, while Bing lags behind with less than 4%.

User Adoption Challenges

• Matt Levin (Marketplace Reporter) discusses user habits, noting that most people stick with familiar search engines unless a significantly better alternative emerges.

• Aidan (Anonymous User) shares his preference for ChatGPT over Google for specific queries, highlighting ease of use:

  “I can just tell it find me this information. As opposed to Google, I found that you're always spending time trying to figure out like what is the right set of keywords to plug into this magic little bar.” (07:43).

Competitive Strategies and Revenue Models

• Ahmed Khan (Morningstar Tech Analyst) asserts that Bing’s AI enhancements haven't yet met the high expectations necessary to disrupt Google's dominance.

  “If the new Bing or other competitors are actually going to break through, they need to meet a high threshold in users' minds and they're just not there yet.” (08:44).

• Dmitry Shevalenko (Perplexity CFO) discusses innovative approaches by AI search startups like Perplexity, which are experimenting with sponsored questions rather than traditional ads to generate revenue:

  “One of its early advertisers is Indeed... when people are kind of asking Perplexity about tips on resume prep, then there's like a question from Indeed about how can using Indeed help your job search.” (09:50).

National Security Concerns

The episode touches on geopolitical tensions, mentioning the Trump administration's scrutiny of Chinese-owned AI chatbots, which has led to ongoing evaluations by the National Security Council (10:52).

Key Insight: Despite advancements, AI-powered search engines face significant hurdles in altering entrenched user preferences and monetization strategies dominated by Google.

---

4. Market Update Brief

Before diving into deeper topics, Kai Ryssdal provides a concise update on the stock market:

• Dow Industrials rose by 1.4% to 44,882 points.
• NASDAQ increased by a quarter of a percent to 19,681 points.
• S&P 500 gained half a percent to 6,071 points.

Notable Movers:

• UPS plummeted over 14% after issuing weak guidance and announcing reduced deliveries for Amazon.
• Amazon fell by 1%, while Caterpillar declined slightly despite better-than-expected earnings.

Key Insight: The market remains volatile, with significant movements in major indices and notable stocks reacting to corporate guidance and economic indicators.

---

5. The Aging Workforce: A Case Study in Cumberland County, Tennessee

Field Report from Cumberland County

Host Kai Ryssdal and Neela Richardson (Chief Economist at ADP) explore the implications of an aging population in Cumberland County. Their visit centers on the Palace Theater in Crossville, a community hub reflecting broader demographic shifts.

Observations at the Palace Theater:

• Melina Fisher, the theater’s administrator, discusses efforts to keep the venue affordable to attract a diverse audience, including retirees and younger individuals:

  “We're cheap, so they like that... we've transitioned to programming that's a little bit louder, a little more lively.” (16:24).

• The theater serves as a microcosm for community adaptation, balancing nostalgic events with attempts to engage younger demographics through affordable entertainment options.

Neela Richardson’s Analysis:

• Ripples of Demographic Change: Neela highlights how local economic decisions create multiplier effects, emphasizing that an aging workforce challenges traditional growth models reliant on expanding labor pools:

  “In this community, you're facing a place where there's not more workers. Now, we can talk about the productivity factor, but that first step of more workers is being challenged.” (23:07).

• Global Implications: She extends the discussion to a global context, noting that while regions like Africa and Southeast Asia benefit from youthful populations, developed nations must navigate the economic constraints of an aging populace:

  “When you look at the demographic projections... are the jobs there and the skill sets there to support the needs of not just African countries and Southeast Asian countries, but the global economy?” (26:27).

Personal Anecdotes:

Kai and Neela recount interactions with local residents, illustrating the personal side of economic data, such as grandparents raising grandchildren and the strain of fixed incomes amid rising costs.

Key Insight: The aging workforce presents significant challenges for sustained economic growth, necessitating strategic adaptations both locally and globally to harness the potential of remaining labor forces and integrate younger generations effectively.

---

6. Looking Ahead: Future Episodes and Global Perspectives

The episode concludes with teasers for upcoming segments that will explore global demographic trends and their economic repercussions. Neela Richardson underscores the importance of connecting global workforce dynamics with technological advancements to foster a sustainable and inclusive global economy.

---

Conclusion

This episode of Marketplace offers a comprehensive exploration of the U.S. economy's current trajectory, the strategic foresight of the Federal Reserve, the stagnant yet evolving AI search landscape, and the pressing challenges posed by an aging workforce. Through expert interviews and on-the-ground reporting, listeners gain valuable insights into the multifaceted forces shaping the economy that could be.

---

Note: The timestamps referenced correspond to the podcast transcript provided and are indicative of where quoted material appears in the episode.

Transcript

[Sponsor Announcer]

This Marketplace podcast is supported by Glassdoor, announcing the best places to work in 2025 as determined by anonymous reviews from the people who Know Best real employees. Did your company make the list this year? Learn who's leading the way in workplace culture and employee satisfaction and see who's hiring today. Then join the conversation in the Glassdoor community to plot your next career move and make the most of your work Life. [e-mail] BestPlaces to work this Marketplace podcast.

Is supported by Remarkable, the ultimate paper tablet that truly captures the feel of writing on paper with smart digital tools. The Remarkable Paper Pro helps you take better notes and stay focused with no social media, email or games to distract you. Built with sustainable materials, you can go for weeks on a single charge and utilize the reading light to use your remarkable Paper Pro anytime, night or day. Get your Tablet [e-mail].

[Kai Ryssdal]

This economy and how It's Doing to start an update on the AI search wars, and then we wrap things up in Cumberland County, Tennessee. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kyle Rysdal. It is Thursday today, the 30th of January. Good as always to have you along, everybody. There are days when the news of this economy is far from the most important thing happening. And attention today is rightly on the victims of the crash last night at Reagan national airport in Washington, 67 people. The economy, though, does go on. And our lead story today is actually the economy, specifically how much it's growing. That is measured in something called gross domestic product. All the goods and services produced, bought and sold here. And as it happens, we learned this morning, overall economic growth last year wasn't so bad, 2.8% in 2024. Thanks mostly to you, the humble American consumer, your spending grew at the fastest pace in two years. Marketplace's Kristen Schwab gets us going with why that is happening, even after the journey we've all been on with inflation and interest rates.

[Kristen Schwab]

When economist John Lear at Morning Console looks at the GDP report, his eyes go straight to the breakdown of goods versus services.

[Economist]

It's more about sort of the pie.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Getting bigger and less about, you know.

[Economist]

Reallocating from goods to services or services to goods.

[Kristen Schwab]

He says both spending categories fueled GDP growth in the fourth quarter.

[Economist]

It sort of underscores the strength of the consumer.

[Kristen Schwab]

Consumers are still doing all the things shopping, vacationing, going out to eat despite high interest rates. One take is maybe rates should have peaked higher to really slow down spending. Here's Dartmouth economist Andrew Levin.

[Sponsor Announcer]

The monetary policy hasn't been as tight.

[Kai Ryssdal]

As people thought it was.

[Kristen Schwab]

It's not like high interest rates haven't tempered spending at all. But many Americans are benefiting from gains in wages, stocks and home values. Jim Wilcox is an economist at UC Berkeley.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Enough other things have happened that, in fact, the positives for growth have outweighed that important negative.

[Kristen Schwab]

High borrowing costs haven't soured consumers, and Wilcox says a certain segment of Americans are sitting really comfortable.

[Kai Ryssdal]

And not only that, another powerful effect on consumer spending is how wealthy people feel.

[Kristen Schwab]

In other words, if your two and a half percent mortgage rate means you're paying hundreds of dollars a month less than your new next door neighbor, why not take the family out for ice cream tonight? I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.

[Kai Ryssdal]

We talk a lot about the Federal Reserve's beige book on this program, anecdotal reports on the state of the economy that in its printed version sports a beige cover. Don't know if you caught this yesterday at Chair Powell's press conference, but he was asked about whether the central bank is going to start modeling what could happen in the event of mass deportations or other big changes to immigration. And in his answer, Powell brought up another publication, the teal book that the Federal Open Market Committee gets before every one of its meetings. Marketplace's Justin Ho flips through the Economic Lending library for us.

[Justin Ho]

The Fed used to have even more books with colorful covers, the Green Book, which looked at the current state of the economy and what could happen down the road, and the Blue Book, which looked at how various decisions on interest rates could play out. But a couple decades ago, the Fed decided to merge those books. And when you combine blue and green, you get teal.

[Kai Ryssdal]

And so at first it was a.

[Economist]

Little bit cheeky and then it just stuck.

[Justin Ho]

Seth Carpenter is global chief economist at Morgan Stanley. He also spent 15 years at the Fed and he helped write many teal books. He says one of the book's roles is to consider some alternate economic scenarios.

[Neela Richardson]

What would happen to the forecast if universal tariffs of 20% were put on next month?

[Justin Ho]

For example, back in 2019, when the labor market was really tight, the teal book looked at what could happen if demand for labor weakened, GDP would slow down, unemployment would tick up. Former Fed economist Claudia Somm also used to help write the Teal book. She's now chief economist at New Century Advisors. And she says all of these scenarios are reasonable possibilities.

[Sponsor Announcer]

They often are pretty obvious. It's like the things we're worried about.

[Justin Ho]

Or we're debating and talking through these scenarios helps the Fed be more prepared, says Columbia professor and former Fed governor.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Frederick Mishkin, having discussed the scenario. If things actually turn out to be different than you expected, will help you actually change your decision process, maybe at the next meeting.

[Justin Ho]

That's why Michigan says the teal book can help the Fed adapt quickly if one of its alternate scenarios becomes reality. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace Wall Street.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Approaching the end of what feels like a long week, Green will have the details. When we do the number, you will absolutely be forgiven if you don't have this next item marked on your calendar. Friday next, February 7th is the two year anniversary of the new Bing. The new what I hear you saying the new Bing is what Microsoft called the relaunch of its search engine with new AI capabilities powered by the technology behind ChatGPT. The new Bing and ChatGPT and large language models broadly, were supposed to be a big threat to Google, which as you know, owns 90% of the search market. My bet though, is that two years on, you're probably still googling, maybe even to find out what happened to the new Bing marketplace. Matt Levin has a status report now for us on the AI search wars.

[Matt Levin]

After the Kansas City Chiefs beat Buffalo last weekend in the AFC championship, Sorry Bills Fans Inc. Magazine tech columnist Jason Ayton had a question. And no, it wasn't about Taylor Swift or a Kelce brother or why God apparently hates the city of Buffalo.

[Economist]

Has there ever been a football game that ended in a 32 to 29 score? 32 to 29 is the weirdest football score I've ever seen. That's not a it's not divisible by seven. Then it's not divisible by three.

[Matt Levin]

So Ayton did the thing that may have set off those code red alarm bells for Google. Google declined an interview request. He asked ChatGPT for the answer, and it accurately listed several games that ended 32 to 29 with links to prove it wasn't making stuff up.

[Economist]

I can just tell it find me this information. As opposed to Google, I found that you're always spending time trying to figure out like what is the right set of keywords to plug into this magic little bar.

[Matt Levin]

Aidan says he now uses ChatGPT for the vast majority of his searches. He's installed a search bar OpenAI, released last month as the default for his browser. Thing is though, most people who aren't techies, they're not doing that. Before ChatGPT came out, Google had about a 90% global market share in search two plus years later it still has about 90% market share. Microsoft's AI powered Bing has less than 4%. So what people do often is that they stick with the habit that they're.

[Justin Ho]

Currently doing unless something obviously better comes along.

[Matt Levin]

Ahmed Khan is a tech analyst at Morningstar and I don't think Bing's AI infused search is a dramatic improvement. He says that if the new Bing or other competitors are actually going to break through, they need to meet a high threshold in users minds and they're just not there yet. Especially since Google introduced its own AI features to search. Even if some people are turning to chatbots for research questions, say the frequency of certain NFL scores, or that undergrad looking up the French Revolution two hours before the term paper is due, those searches aren't Google's moneymakers anyway. If I want to buy like Adidas sneakers, I'll type in Adidas sneakers. The images will show up. I'm like oh I want this one and I'll probably click into that link. Commercial searches are what advertisers pay top dollar to display their sponsored links against, and Google search ad revenue is still growing. AI powered competitors are trying to figure out how to grab some of that revenue without losing what many users like about AI search answers, not ads. So instead of sponsored links, AI search startup Perplexity is experimenting with something they hope is slightly less annoying. So Perplexity began experimenting Q4 of last year with sponsored questions. And this is important in that we're never going to do sponsored answers. Dmitry Shevalenko is chief business officer for Perplexity. One of its early advertisers is Indeed the job board website. So when people are kind of asking Perplexity about tips on resume prep, then there's like a question from Indeed about how can using Indeed help help your job search. The majority of Perplexity's revenue right now doesn't come from ads. It's from paid subscriptions for its pro search tier, which can be a tough sell for users accustomed to free competitors like Google or now like Deep Seek. Tech columnist Jason Ayton downloaded the Chinese AI chatbot app last weekend and said it's also pretty good for search. For now.

[Economist]

The main reason I downloaded is I can't imagine that it's not going to be banned in the next six months and I wanted it on my phone.

[Matt Levin]

Before that happened, eaton said. While we may have some qualms about how much Google knows about our search history, a Chinese owned AI chatbot is another can of worms, the Trump administration said this week The National Security Council is already looking into the app. I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Coming up, I've kind of taken us more toward things that are a little bit louder, a little more lively.

[Kai Ryssdal]

I'm all right with that. First though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials up 168 today 4. 10% 44,882 the NASDAQ gained 49 points. That's about a quarter percent landed at 19,681. The S&P 500 gained 31 points, a half percent. 6,071. UPS dropped more than 14% today after issuing weak guidance for the year ahead. The shipping firm also announced it had reached an agreement with Amazon to cut deliveries for the online retailer by half. Amazon, of course, the biggest customer of UPS, slipped 1% today. Caterpillar gave back 4 and 6. 10%. Construction equipment firm posted better than expected fourth quarter earnings, but revenue fell short of analyst expectations. Thus capitalism. Bonds up yield down 4.52% you're listening to Marketplace.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Serious about investing, you need to know about public.com that's where you can invest in everything stocks, options, bonds and crypto. They even offer some of the highest yields in the industry, like the bond account 6% or higher yield that remains locked in even if the Fed cuts rates. What sets Public apart is how they give you the tools you need to make informed investment decisions. Their built in AI tool called Alpha doesn't just tell you if an asset is moving, it tells you why the asset is moving so you can actually understand what's driving your portfolio's performance. Public is a FINRA registered SIPC insured US based company with a customer support team that actually cares. Bottom line, your investments deserve a platform that takes them as seriously as you do. Fund your account in five minutes or less at public.commarketplace and get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's public.commarketplace paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Backed Crypto Solutions, LLC. Complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures this Marketplace podcast is supported by Gusto.

[Kristen Schwab]

Let your employees know you've got their back by signing up for Gusto for payroll and HR. More than 300,000 small business owners use Gusto. They offer benefits like health insurance, employee onboarding and more. Get Your payroll taxes filed, deductions calculated.

[Kai Ryssdal]

And your team paid fast.

[Kristen Schwab]

No more pain, just the joy of running your business. Get three months free when you go.

[Sponsor Announcer]

To Gusto.com marketplace that's Gusto.com marketplace.

This marketplace podcast is supported by Remarkable, the ultimate paper Tablet. Remarkable created a portable premium tablet that truly captures the feel of writing on paper, but pairs it with smart digital tools and zero distractions. The remarkable Paper Pro helps you take better notes and stay focused. There's no social media, email, apps or games to distract you. Get the benefits and feeling of paper with the convenience of modern technology. Convert handwriting to typed text, copy and paste and organize all your written notes in neat folders. In addition, the remarkable Paper Pro is thin, light, and beautifully designed. It's the ultimate paper tablet. Check out remarkable.com to get your paper tablet today. Remarkable.com.

[Kai Ryssdal]

This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Ryssdal. We're going to wrap up our reporting from Tennessee today. Our new series the Age of Work, about how the demographic changes happening in the United States and abroad are reshaping the global economy. We've been in Cumberland county, home to one of the oldest workforces in the country. That's according to data from adp. And today we're going to go to a business that pretty much everybody in the county goes to. Let's go right on in. Because that's what I do. Oh, look at this place. It's cute.

[Neela Richardson]

I love the smell of popcorn in a theater.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Oh, man. ADP chief economist Neil Richardson and I are at the Palace Theater in Crossville, Tennessee. It's a brick building with a big old red marquee right at the corner of Main street and First. Their latest screening, Home Alone. The palace is owned by the city of Crossville. There is one theater Inside seats about 300 people with a movie screen and stage lights and a grand piano.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Nice to meet you. I'm Alina.

[Neela Richardson]

Nice to meet you.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Hi.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Nice to see you. How are you?

[Sponsor Announcer]

Nice to meet you. Kai.

[Kai Ryssdal]

How are you? Thank you for taking the time to talk to us.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Well, thank you for coming. We appreciate y'all. How's it been so far?

[Kai Ryssdal]

So far, so good. We're seeing a lot of people.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Good, good. Are we friendly?

[Kai Ryssdal]

Yes. Melina Fisher is the administrator of the Palace Theater. Been at this job for about three years. It's the only theater like it within about 30 minutes. So it attracts people from Crossville and Fairfield Glade alike. Melina grew up here.

[Neela Richardson]

How have you seen Crossville change over time?

[Sponsor Announcer]

We are. Well, we. We've got a lot of new people here, and they're. They're coming by the droves. One of the biggest changes for me is not knowing everybody that I run into now. When I went to college, I was a little. A little down. I couldn't understand why. And it was because I could walk to class and not know a soul. And that's kind of how it is here now.

[Kai Ryssdal]

A big part of Molina's job is keeping the theater affordable.

[Sponsor Announcer]

We have school trips all the time. We had field trips.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Oh, kids coming to see the place.

[Sponsor Announcer]

They come to see. Yeah, they come see movies here all the time. We're cheap, so they like that.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Wait, how much is the ticket going to cost me to come see?

[Sponsor Announcer]

$5.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Really?

[Sponsor Announcer]

$5? Yes. And so for a field trip, the $5 gets them their drink, candy, popcorn. In the movie, if you're an adult and it's a normal thing, then you have to pay us $10 for all of that. So still a deal. So, yeah, we try to keep things low. It's. It's more of a community service, but we've got that. We had the Rolling Stones tribute this weekend that was quite lively. And the weekend before, we had a good rock show. And then we had a concert pianist.

[Kai Ryssdal]

We see the place.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Absolutely. Come on in.

[Kai Ryssdal]

The palace opened in 1938 as part of the film industry's push into rural communities. It closed in 1978 and then sat empty for decades. The city had planned to tear it down until a group of locals raised money to save it. And when you walk in now, there's really only one thing you notice. So describe this color for me, would you? Because it's a lot of.

[Sponsor Announcer]

It's a lot. Yeah, it's a lot. So we are actually. We're getting ready to. This is kind of. It's blue. Yeah, it's a little turquoisey, but it's everywhere.

[Kai Ryssdal]

It's the walls, it's the ceiling.

[Sponsor Announcer]

It is.

[Kai Ryssdal]

I mean, it's turquoise walls and ceilings with Pepto Bismol pink accents, I should add. It's so bright. Melina said it almost glows in the dark. A problem, I think, for movie screenings. Since we visited, repainting has begun.

[Sponsor Announcer]

We should tell you we're gonna go probably more some grays.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Movie tickets, as Molina said, are priced pretty low. For other kinds of shows, she tries to keep tickets at 30 bucks, max. Who's your clientele? Who comes in the door?

[Sponsor Announcer]

So because we are a retirement community, our base is mostly retirees. I'm starting to be at that age where I'm one of those. And really what we're doing, we're changing our programming, so we're starting to get some young people in.

[Kai Ryssdal]

What was the crowd like for the Rolling Stones retrospective this weekend?

[Sponsor Announcer]

It was. It was very nostalgic. It was very nostalgic. You're so good. But we did. We do have. We have some young people that are coming in and really just embracing that. You know, the. I guess we're retro and vintage and all that stuff.

[Neela Richardson]

For them, everything old is new again, but.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Yes, yes. But our base is really. It is an older crowd. We have. Over the three years that I've been here, we've kind of transitioned from the Walker and Oxygen Tank crowd to the hip and cooler older crowd. I don't know how diplomatic that is. It's a good visual we are getting. We did a lot of the oldies before. We did a lot of oldies. We did a lot of bluegrass. I've kind of taken us more toward things that are a little bit louder, a little more lively.

[Neela Richardson]

What do teenagers do? Do they have a similar venue or they can congregate and have fun together?

[Sponsor Announcer]

No, they don't. And we're starting to see, especially with the movies, it's a cheap date. 20 bucks get you. Both of you, popcorn, you get to come and watch a movie. So we're starting to see that a lot more with our movies. And that was what we intended.

[Kai Ryssdal]

So when you look around at what's happening at these businesses on Main street and how people are spending their money and what people tell you as they come in the door, what's the. What's the vibe?

[Sponsor Announcer]

So we are. I kind of feel like we're the first ripple. So I almost feel like we see things before they hit the headlines, if that makes sense. We can have the same show the same time of year, same price point, and the following year, not. Have. Not have the same crowd at all. And that may have to do. We've noticed that if the gas prices are up, we've noticed if groceries are up, the crowd is down. Sometimes it's almost like, okay, so what's going on that we don't know about? People are holding onto that money a little bit more.

[Kai Ryssdal]

That was us 2 1/2 ish months ago in Crossville, Cumberland County, Tennessee. Me and Nick, we have, through the magic of radio, got Neila on the phone. We're gonna talk about what we saw, what we thought, what we heard. Hi, Neila.

[Neela Richardson]

Hi.

[Kai Ryssdal]

So you heard all those. You've been listening the past couple of days, we've had those stories we just heard Molina in the palace just now. Big picture, what were your impressions from three days in Cumberland County, Tennessee?

[Neela Richardson]

Big picture, I saw two very different views of retirement. I saw one that felt like summer camp. There was pickleball, there was line dancing, there was friends. It felt almost magical in a beautiful setting. On the other side of that, I saw a retirement that looks like what, what we were all scared about. There's just not enough people who were happy to work but had to work. I saw how the opioids addiction has affected not only younger people, but the grandparents that are left behind to raise a younger generation. I saw the trade offs in health care. And more importantly, I'm left with the question, where do young people fit in in this battle of the retirement lives?

[Kai Ryssdal]

Right. I don't know if you remember that night we were out to dinner one of those nights, and we were in the restaurant and there were about four or five sets of grandparents taking care of grandchildren. Remember that?

[Neela Richardson]

I remember that. And you know, I've heard that the best part of being a grandparent is being able to take your child home after you've babysat them. So they're missing out on the best part. They're raising these children and some of them are doing bad on a fixed income.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Yeah. Let's talk about the ripple effects for a second that Melina was talking about there. What's happening in Cumberland county with the changing demographics and the aging workforce. Those ripple effects are coming through the rest of this economy. Yes. I mean, that's how we started back by the pickleball courts.

[Neela Richardson]

It's so great that Alina used the term ripple effect, because really, that's just a way to say what economists say in a very dignified way is the multiplier in macroeconomics. I mean, it is how your decisions on Main street at the micro level affect the rest of the economy and vice versa. Now, we visited a community that, from the hospital to the foundations that were present, the nonprofits, even the retirement community themselves had been reoriented to helping the local economy. But you can imagine a community that makes a very different choice, and that will have a ripple effect. And so what they teach us in macro in grad school is that there's only one way an economy grows when there are more people, more workers, and those workers become more productive. In this community, you're facing a place where there's not more workers. Now, we can talk about the productivity factor, but that first step of more Workers is being challenged, and not just in the US that in almost every wealthy country on the planet.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Yeah. Let me ask you this, though. I mean, we've talked on this program in previous conversations, but also in this series about the data that ADP has, right? Tens of millions of records of how people are getting paid and, you know, where they are and all this jazz. Do you suppose that markets like Sheboygan and Ottumwa and Austin, Texas, and Atlanta and big cities like New York, are they ready for this change that is coming in the American workforce? We are all getting older, Elle.

[Neela Richardson]

They're not ready. What I really like about this visit with you, Kai, is that we specialize at ADP research on data, but we always knew that there was a human behind that data point and we got to meet some really cool humans. But nobody's talking about this aging workforce in the way that was captured during this series. And I don't think big cities or small cities are investing in the things that'll keep young people growing. I loved when we went to the grocery store and the grocer was like, you know, people are not paying attention to their greatest strength in the community. I also loved what he said about there being jobs there. So it's really about like, how do you serve in aging retirement community with young people and direct those young people to the places of opportunity? I would love to hear more cities talking about that.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Let's just by way of wrap up, talk about what's happening next in this series. This is a global phenomenon. As we talked about that day, standing next to the pickleball court, there are countries in this global economy where a young workforce is a distinct advantage for them and will be over the next 50 years.

[Neela Richardson]

Yes, that's right. When you look at the demographic projections and remember there's only one way this global economy is going to grow. When there are more workers and those workers get more productive. Those more workers in terms of prime age, younger workers, they're hitting places like Africa in terms of growth rate or Southeast Asia. The question in my mind is, are the jobs there and the skill sets there to support the needs of not just African countries and Southeast Asian countries, but the global economy? I think of people now as the new globalization. In economics, we talk about trade in terms of goods and services. We never talk about it, about how interconnected we are as people and increasingly so. If the technology and the wealth is in one place and the growing worker base is another, how do we connect those dots on a global scale?

[Kai Ryssdal]

And we will do that in the next installment of this series. Air date TBD we got to figure out where we're going and when. Neela Richardson is the chief economist at adp. Neela, we'll talk to you soon.

[Neela Richardson]

Yes. And will you line dance the next time?

[Kai Ryssdal]

I will. Absolutely not. Linedance? No.

[Neela Richardson]

Okay.

[Kai Ryssdal]

No.

[Neela Richardson]

All right, thanks. See you soon.

[Kai Ryssdal]

This final note on the way out today, I've got some bad news, gang. Forget cuts. The Federal Reserve is going to have to start raising interest rates. I mentioned a little bit ago on this program, maybe a month or so, that Fox, which owns the rights to this year's super bowl, was asking $7 million for 30 seconds of ad time. CNN is reporting that the network has sold some spots for better than 8 million. I mean, inflation. Am I right? Too much money chasing too few goods. Tell me I'm wrong. John Buckley, John Gordon, Noya Carr, Diantha Parker, Amanda Petra and Stephanie Sieg, part of the Marketplace editing staff. Amir Bibawe is the managing editor and I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow. Everybody, this is apm.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Hi. This is Nicole from Camphill, Pennsylvania. I'm always surprised how much Content Marketplace can pack into 30 minutes. Listening is part of my daily routine. I love the way they make the content digestible and relatable. For us folks who don't have a strong background in economics or business, join me by making a gift to Marketplace [e-mail] donate.