Theme of the day: Uncertainty

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Summary: "Uncertainty" Marketplace, Host: Kai Rysdal | Release Date: February 3, 2025

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Introduction: The Prevalence of Uncertainty in the Economy

In this episode of Marketplace, host Kai Rysdal delves into the theme of uncertainty that currently pervades the economic landscape. Rysdal begins by highlighting the fragile nature of the financial systems that often go unnoticed until disrupted. The episode opens with alarming news about Elon Musk gaining control over a critical Treasury Department payment system, prompting a discussion on the potential implications for the economy.

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Elon Musk and the Treasury Department: Potential Risks

Discussion with Wendy Edelberg [00:01 - 06:06]

Kai Rysdal interviews Wendy Edelberg, a Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, regarding the implications of Elon Musk’s involvement with the Treasury Department’s payment system.

• Understanding the Bureau of Fiscal Service: Edelberg explains, “Do it is the part of our government that makes sure all the money gets to the right place... It is like our huge checkbook” [01:00].

• Assessing the Threat: When asked to rate her concern on a scale of 1 to 10, Edelberg emphasizes, “It's not that Elon Musk and the people who work with Elon Musk are the first people to worry about the integrity of this system. Congress has worried about this and it's passed legislation to improve this system” [01:48].

• Debt Limit and Fiscal Management: The conversation touches upon the US Treasury's extraordinary measures to prevent a default on national debts due to the debt ceiling impasse. Edelberg notes, “I wouldn't worry about the global financial system until we get to a point where somebody decides or somebody threatens that it would be clever if we just didn't make interest payments to, let's say, our foreign creditors or something stupid like” [04:23].

• Political Malpractice Over Fiscal Crisis: Edelberg expresses her primary concern lies in “political malpractice” rather than merely higher federal borrowing, stating, “I think the real risk of a fiscal crisis is political malpractice” [04:28].

Edelberg concludes by reaffirming the risks posed by unvetted individuals managing critical financial operations, emphasizing the need for responsible oversight [05:26].

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Tariff News: Immediate and Long-term Impacts on Businesses

Report by Kristen Schwab [07:20 - 09:24]

Kristen Schwab reports on the latest developments in tariff policies and their impending effects on businesses and consumers.

• Business Responses to Tariffs: Lance Ficken of Savor Imports discusses the challenges faced by his company, which imports around 400 products from over 30 countries. He mentions, “I really wanted to see if this could work... knowing and understanding food costs and supply chain issues... force me to think more creatively” [07:20].

• Economic Uncertainty for Businesses: Ficken highlights the uncertainty faced by businesses, noting, “It doesn't help with my stress level” [07:57], while economist Peter Debert warns of the ongoing back-and-forth nature of tariff implementations [08:18].

• Market Reactions: Agricultural economist Louis Ribera observes, “Wholesale avocado prices were up this morning,” attributing price increases to the anticipation of tariffs rather than their immediate implementation [08:42].

Schwab underscores the broad-spectrum anxiety among importers, grocers, and restaurants as they await the tangible effects of tariff changes [09:08].

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Manufacturing Sector: Signs of Recovery Amidst Turbulence

Analysis with Mark Zandi [10:27 - 12:38]

Economist Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics provides insights into the state of the manufacturing sector.

• Positive Indicators: Zandi acknowledges that manufacturing showed slight improvements in January, with indexes turning positive, yet cautions that these are minimal gains [10:27].

• Ongoing Challenges: He points out persistent headwinds such as high interest rates, a strong dollar, weak global demand, and the newly imposed tariffs, suggesting that the sector is "still facing headwinds" [10:35].

• Impact on Specific Industries: Zandi elaborates on the potential struggles within the auto industry due to its integrated North American supply chains and the petrochemical industry’s vulnerability to retaliatory tariffs [11:17].

• Business Uncertainty: Reflecting on Kelair Products, a manufacturer outside Chicago, Zandi notes the widespread uncertainty affecting planning and expansion efforts [12:01].

Despite some positive signs, Zandi emphasizes that manufacturers remain cautious due to the unpredictable economic environment [12:38].

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Federal Reserve's Perspective: Navigating Economic Uncertainty

Interview with Austan Goolsbee [15:06 - 22:01]

Kai Rysdal engages in a comprehensive discussion with Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, focusing on the impact of uncertainty on monetary policy.

• Role of the Federal Reserve: Goolsbee explains the Fed’s mandate to "stabilize prices and maximize employment," highlighting the need to consider fiscal uncertainties that could affect these goals [15:59].

• Balancing Growth and Inflation: Addressing concerns about inflation amidst strong economic growth, Goolsbee states, “We've got to be a little more careful and more prudent of how fast rates could come down because there are risks that inflation is about to start kicking back up again” [19:03].

• Interplay Between Fiscal and Monetary Policies: He elaborates on the interconnection between fiscal decisions and monetary policy, emphasizing that while the Fed doesn't dictate fiscal policy, it must respond to its effects [17:46].

• Sector-Specific Insights: Goolsbee shares insights from conversations with industrial executives, particularly in the manufacturing hub of Chicago, indicating that business leaders are apprehensive about future economic conditions [21:03].

Goolsbee concludes by reiterating the Fed's vigilance in monitoring factors that could influence inflation and employment, underscoring the persistent concerns within the business community [22:01].

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Entrepreneurship and Women-Owned Businesses: A Driving Force in Economic Growth

Feature: "My Economy" with Marissa Ferola [22:52 - 25:30]

In the "My Economy" segment, Marissa Ferola, owner of Nine Winters—a Korean American bakery cafe in Cambridge, Massachusetts—shares her entrepreneurial journey and the challenges faced by small business owners.

• Starting a Business Amid High Real Estate Costs: Ferola discusses the difficulties of establishing a brick-and-mortar location in a city with soaring real estate prices, emphasizing the importance of serving her specific community [22:52].

• Navigating Food Costs and Supply Chain Issues: She highlights the tight margins in the food industry and the necessity for creative solutions to maintain accessibility and quality, stating, “Knowing and understanding food costs and supply chain issues... force me to think more creatively” [24:46].

• Family and Community Impact: Ferola expresses her motivation rooted in family and community, hoping her work will inspire her children and reflect her cultural identity [25:30].

This segment underscores the resilience and innovation of women-owned businesses as key contributors to economic growth, particularly in sectors facing tight margins and supply chain challenges.

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Conclusion: Navigating Through Economic Uncertainty

The episode of Marketplace effectively captures the multifaceted nature of economic uncertainty, ranging from high-level fiscal policy concerns to grassroots entrepreneurial challenges. Through expert interviews and firsthand business accounts, host Kai Rysdal provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current economic climate and the various factors contributing to its unpredictability. The discussions underscore the interconnectedness of fiscal decisions, monetary policies, and business strategies in shaping the economic outlook.

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Note: Advertisements and non-content segments have been omitted from this summary for clarity and relevance.

Transcript

[Kai Rysdal]

Honestly, the only thing that's economically certain right now is the uncertainty. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kyle Rysdal. It is Monday today. This is the 3rd of February. It is always to have you along, everybody. We probe only rarely into the financial plumbing of this economy, mostly because it just works. Invoices are honored, checks are cut and obligations are paid. But the news over the weekend that Elon Musk has gotten some degree of control over a critical Treasury Department payment system does warrant alarm. We've called Wendy Edelberg, she's a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, to get a sense of exactly how much alarm is warranted. Wendy, it's good to talk to you again.

[Wendy Edelberg]

I'm happy to be with you. Kai.

[Kai Rysdal]

The Bureau of the Fiscal Service. What just so everybody understands, does it.

[Wendy Edelberg]

Do it is the part of our government that makes sure all the money gets to the right place. All the money coming into the federal government from our tax payments and all the money, most of the money, coming out of the federal government for payments for Social Security benefits, payment to doctors who are treating patients in Medicaid and Medicare, payments to agencies. It is like our huge checkbook.

[Kai Rysdal]

All right, so on a scale of like 1 to 10, your level of concern about this, please. With untrained and unprofessional people in charge of this account, I mean 10.

[Wendy Edelberg]

So it's not that Elon Musk and the people who work with Elon Musk are the first people to worry about the integrity of this system. Congress has worried about this and it's passed legislation to improve this system. There are a lot of very responsible eyes on this system, making sure it works well. And so having just folks willy nilly with their hands at the dials know that is not responsible.

[Kai Rysdal]

I'll, I'll point out here that we have been since the 21st of January, I believe, in what the Treasury Department calls extraordinary measures because there is the debt limit. Congress has to figure out what it wants to do about that. And this is the office that almost literally to the penny figures out how the United States doesn't default on its debts. Is that right?

[Wendy Edelberg]

It is. So the way to think about the debt limit and you know, we are in a period where the US treasury is not allowed to increase the amount that it is borrowing. So it's doing, you know, some payment management to make sure that it always has enough money.

[Kai Rysdal]

We last spoke, you and I, when we were doing the show we did on the independence of the Federal Reserve and the importance of that when it comes to monetary policy. And you pointed out that if the Federal Reserve is politically cowed, the entire global economy is at risk. This seems to be somewhat analogous if the United States government, if we don't know who's paying the bills and what bills are being paid, because that's what's happening here. The global economy then is at risk. Is that an overstatement?

[Wendy Edelberg]

I am more worried about it when it comes, if we're going to worry about the whole global financial system. I am more worried about interest and principal payments on treasury bonds not being paid on time. I mean, USAID has already not received any money since early last week. So there are already payments, it looks like, being improperly withheld against the wishes of Congress, who, you know, that enacted laws and appropriated money into usaid. So already there are probably some shenanigans. I wouldn't worry about the global financial system until we get to a point where somebody decides or somebody threatens that it would be clever if we just didn't make interest payments to, let's say, our foreign creditors or something stupid like.

[Kai Rysdal]

That, which honestly we don't know. Right.

[Wendy Edelberg]

I mean, what frustrates me to no end is that there are so many people all over the United States who have been worrying for, in fact, decades about the risk of a fiscal crisis, and they've just been looking under the wrong lamppost. They're worried about the risk of a fiscal crisis just from grindingly higher federal borrowing. And I think the real risk of a fiscal crisis is political malpractice.

[Kai Rysdal]

Wendy Edelberg is the director of the Hamilton Project and a senior Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brooking Institution. I paused there, Wendy, because I was looking for a follow up, but I'm not sure there is one at this point. Right. We leave it right there.

[Wendy Edelberg]

I mean, I can talk more if it's helpful. I can talk more about how, you know, when it comes to the debt limit, like they're not going to reinvest money in the Civil Service retirement and Disability Fund and use that money, but we just don't.

[Kai Rysdal]

The point of this entire conversation that you and I are having and the issue with Musk and his acolytes being in charge of this facility or at least having the access that we now believe them to have. Right. Because there's been no confirmation or statement of fact from anybody. There's just lots of really good reporting. We just don't know. Right?

[Wendy Edelberg]

That's right. We have people who are in positions to be theoretically deciding what checks get written and what checks don't get written based on their own political priorities.

[Kai Rysdal]

Wendy Edelberg at Brookings. Thanks, Wendy.

[Wendy Edelberg]

Thanks.

[Kai Rysdal]

The day's tariff news coming up in just a sec, But Wall street did have a thing or two to say about it, I'll tell you that. Details, numbers when we get Let me just say right here as I set up this next piece that by the time you hear this on your local public radio station or in a podcast feed, let me just say that the actual details of the current American tariff posture might have changed or it might not have. It's a fluid news environment, shall we say. But beyond the specifics of what's getting tariffed and by how much and from which country, behind all that is the not insignificant question of how long it's going to take for businesses and consumers to feel it. Marketplace's Kristen Schwab has that one.

[Lance Ficken]

It's one of those shot out of a cannon type of Mondays for Lance Ficken at Savor Imports. He's been in meetings with lawyers and managers since 6am tracking every update from the White House, watching the news and.

[Kai Rysdal]

Trying to figure out what we have going on in terms of imports on the water right now and and how we're going to adjust quickly.

[Lance Ficken]

The company imports about 400 products from over 30 countries, including quinoa from Canada, jalapenos from Mexico, and edamame from China. Ficken has been preparing for tariffs. He's actually in the middle of an edamame experiment right now, testing to see if the crop grows well in Guatemala.

[Kai Rysdal]

It'll take four to six months. Not a quick solve, but it's a solve.

[Lance Ficken]

Long term, short term, Ficken is kind of at a standstill. He doesn't want to blow up his supply chains or raise prices until he knows what's going on. Peter Debert, an international economist at the University of Virginia, says this is likely just the beginning of back and forth tariffs with other countries.

[Peter Debert]

Are they going to retaliate?

[Kai Rysdal]

How long is this going to take?

[Peter Debert]

So this is all not so clear.

[Lance Ficken]

Debar says companies prefer to raise prices once instead of every time the wind shifts. Remember, during Trump's last term, it took the US And China two years to reach a phase one trade agreement. So businesses will wait.

[Kai Rysdal]

You probably want to see how far this goes.

[Lance Ficken]

It means tariffs could take a while to hit goods that have a lot of complicated parts and components like appliances and cars. But some commodities have already started pricing in Louis Ribera, an agricultural economist at Texas A and M says wholesale avocado prices were up this morning.

[Kai Rysdal]

Prices and markets react with information, so nothing even had to happen. It's just the threat of something to happen and the prices are going to jump.

[Lance Ficken]

That doesn't mean your avocado toast will suddenly be more expensive, but it does mean everyone from importers to grocers to restaurants is holding their breath. I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.

[Kai Rysdal]

You know what you don't have to hold your breath for. Our podcast comes to you every single day, [e-mail] or or the platform of your choice. All you have to do is follow us. Even with the chaos that is the news of this economy the past couple of days, there is an upbeat note to pass on to you. Manufacturing, as we've been reporting, has been having some troubles the past couple of years. But the picture got noticeably rosier with the arrival of 2025. Two closely watched manufacturing indexes both turned positive in January. Assigned manufacturing has been expanding at least a bit, and at least before the tariffs hit home. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has that one.

[Mark Zandi]

Manufacturing may have gotten its head above water in January, but not by much, says economist Mark Zandi at Moody's Analytics.

[Kai Rysdal]

I'll take it we're on the positive side, but just barely and doesn't indicate any breakout here.

[Mark Zandi]

The sector's still facing headwinds, high interest rates, a strong dollar, weak global demand and now tariffs. Zandi points to the damage they did during President Trump's first term.

[Kai Rysdal]

Manufacturing got hit pretty hard by the end of 2019, right before the pandemic, it was in recession, he says.

[Mark Zandi]

It's not all gloom and doom.

[Kai Rysdal]

Some will benefit from the tariffs because they'll be protected from foreign competition, but others will get hurt.

[Mark Zandi]

The auto industry is likely to feel pain, says Ned Hill at the Ohio Manufacturing Institute, because it's got an integrated North American supply chain.

[Kai Rysdal]

The Detroit, Windsor, Ontario area. You'll frequently have a park go back.

[Mark Zandi]

And forth at the border several times.

[Kai Rysdal]

Is it going to get a 25% tax if it travels four times, we've doubled the price.

[Mark Zandi]

There's trouble in store for the Gulf coast as well, says Al Greenwood at icis, which monitors the petrochemical industry. Because of the magnitude of our exports, the industry is vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs. The upshot of all this is manufacturers are dealing with a lot of uncertainty. Kelair Products makes industrial air dampers at a plant outside Chicago. President Jim Piper says the company just expanded into a new product line that's assembled in Mexico from components fabricated in the Midwest.

[Kai Rysdal]

With the threat of tariffs on Saturday but now rescinded Monday morning, it doesn't help with my stress level.

[Mark Zandi]

Piper says. It's hard to plan for the future right now. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

[Marissa Ferola]

Coming up, knowing and understanding food costs and supply chain issues, the ingredients if.

[Kai Rysdal]

You will, of the food business. But first, let's do the numbers. Dow industrials off 122 points today. 3 10% 44,421. The NASDAQ subtracted 235 points. 1.2% closed at 19,391. The S&P 500 down 45 points 3/4%, 59 and 94. Before the 30 day reprieve though on both sides of the border, well, let's just say it was ugly. Today's Tariff News did a number on carmakers. Makes sense, right? General Motors decelerated just shy of 3.2%. Ford Motors spun down 1 and 9 10%. Tesla discharged 5.2%. Chip makers got hit to Nvidia subjected 2.8%. They are down 20% by the way, since that whole deep sick, deep seek thing happened. And that was like what, 10 days two weeks ago tops. Broadcom gave up 1.2 retreat to 11 2/3% rather Qualcomm retreated almost 1 and 6 10%. Tariffs and threats there of also not good for among others toy makers. Mattel gave back 4.6%. Hasbro retreated 2 and a 10th percent. Bonds rose. The yield on the 10 year T note fell 4.54%. You're listening to Marketplace.

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[Kai Rysdal]

I'm Kai Rysdal. The Federal Reserve met last week. As you know, the economy is strong, although as you also know, inflation is still higher than the central bank wants it to be. And economic policy right now is in some flux. We've gotten Austan Goolsbee on the phone to talk about it. He is the president of the Chicago Fed and this year a voting member of the interest rate setting Federal Open Market Committee. Austin, it's good to talk to you again.

[Austan Goolsbee]

Yeah, great to talk to you again, guy.

[Kai Rysdal]

I want to talk not about the tariff elephant in the room, but sort of the thing that goes along with that. And it's been the subject of a lot of conversation. Obviously the Fed chair talked about it last week. Her colleague Susan Collins talked about it on CNBC this morning. And that is uncertainty. What we seem to have here is a whole lot of induced uncertainty into this economy. And I wonder how you at the Fed are thinking about that as that affects businesses and everyday consumers.

[Austan Goolsbee]

Well, I'm not allowed to speak for anybody else on the committee, just me. How I think about it is the law is pretty specific about how the Fed is supposed to set monetary policy, stabilize prices and maximize employment. So uncertainty about things that are going to affect prices, we basically have to think about them. Even in the space that we're mostly uncomfortable weighing in on fiscal policy matters. That's a thing. Congress, the president, they should decide that. But then we do have to react because it's right in our wheelhouse. So I think these uncertainties likely mean that in what was otherwise shaping out to be a pretty good progression in my view of the economy getting back to a 2% inflation, strong growth, strong productivity growth, and a labor market that looks pretty close to full employment now, we've got to be a little more careful and more prudent of how fast rates could come down because there are risks that inflation is about to start kicking back up again.

[Kai Rysdal]

Let me ask you then if you think it's, you know, you all, and again, I'm not asking you to speak for anybody but Austan Goolsbee, but you and the collective always say, you know, we do monetary policy, fiscal policymakers do fiscal policy, that is to say Congress and the White House, taxing and spending. Do you think it's realistic to try to keep those separate now anymore? They do seem to be ever more intertwined.

[Austan Goolsbee]

They're definitely intertwined in the sense that they're affecting the base Conditions. But, Kai, it's what I always say out here in Chicago, our thing is there's no bad weather, only bad clothing. You tell me the weather, I'll tell you what jacket we're going to put on. And these fiscal choices, if they affect prices or employment, the law requires us at the Fed to think about them. That's different from us weighing in on fiscal policy. We're not saying what's a good idea or bad idea. We're just saying we have to do our jobs. And part of our job is if something's threatening to affect prices, we've got to run through the scenarios and think.

[Kai Rysdal]

It through as those prices get affected by the tariffs or what have you. Just to generalize it, what part of the current economic environment are you most worried about? Are you most worried about inflation, which you guys have been fighting for years now and seem to have a hold on, or are you worried about what might happen with growth? Right. Because if you have inflation with growth that slows, as it has in the past because of tariffs, what do you do?

[Austan Goolsbee]

Yeah, thanks for bringing up such a painful scenario.

[Kai Rysdal]

It's my job.

[Austan Goolsbee]

Look, we have to think about both of those. In the uncertainties of this exact moment, I do think you've seen growth continue to come in pretty strong, the consumer very strong, not slowing down. And so there are concerns about what's happening with inflation and this muddying of the water. Normally, we're watching inflation to get a sense of is the economy overheating, in which case monetary policy might want to act. It's going to be hard to tell the difference between a sign of economic overheating and a sign of this is just a temporary result of an escalating trade war or of some other geopolitical thing that's happening. And if you're one of the data dogs, which Kai, I know you are and I am, it's hard to sniff. You know, you got blankets over the thing. We're trying to sniff out what's the through line. And we might have to slow the pace of getting to the settling point if we have that much uncertainty.

[Kai Rysdal]

I absolutely do not want to put words in your mouth, but to a layperson, no. And you'll obviously correct me. Right. But to a layperson listening to you right now and most of the audience of this program are laypeople. Is laypeople. You are using words that, to an attentive observer, sounds like you're expressing some real concern. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Austan Goolsbee]

I'm always concerned. If you Say what keeps me up at night. My view is the central bank's job is not to sleep at night. We're on the night shift.

[Kai Rysdal]

We want you well rested though, that's the point.

[Austan Goolsbee]

So we will be, we can nap in the daytime. So I am always concerned about anything that's going to raise prices or knock us off the employment track. Our seventh district out in Chicago is the heart of the Midwest, is really the district and we have the highest manufacturing of all the Fed districts and by far the highest auto production. So I'm out talking to industrial executives. I'm going to Detroit on Wednesday to meet with a large number of folks from the auto industry. And I gotta say the concerns that I have are in large measure coming from the business people that I'm talking to. Not everything is bad. I want to emphasize we've had very strong productivity growth, which is a positive and what matters is everything taken together. But I do have to tell you when I'm out talking to people participating in the economy, this is on their mind.

[Kai Rysdal]

Yeah. Austan Goolsby at the Chicago Fed, Austin, thanks a lot. It's always good to talk to you anytime. Entrepreneurship in this economy has boomed since the before times and a report from Wells Fargo shows women owned businesses are major drivers of that growth, increasing in nearly twice the rate of male owned businesses. And with that in mind, here is today's installment of our series My Economy.

[Marissa Ferola]

I'm Marissa Farola. I run a Korean American bakery cafe called Nine Winters and I am based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The shop really began as a passion project of baking with Korean ingredients with my oldest daughter who's now seven, Janine. When she was around two and a half years old, I was working for an ice cream shop. My boss and mentor at the time offered me the opportunity to run a weekly pop up and just kind of see where it would go. The pop ups went really great. We had a lot of fun with them and it got to a point where I really wanted to see if this could work. It's really hard to start a brick and mortar. Real estate is at what feels like an all time high in the city of Boston. I really wanted to be sure that I would serve the community that I care about. So I had a very specific idea in mind that I didn't want to stray from. We are planning on opening spring of 2020 pending construction. A food business. It's a tight margin. Knowing and understanding food costs and supply chain issues and also wanting to keep food accessible is a line that I'm walking every day. And it does force me to think more creatively. So these problems that food businesses face can have really innovative and exciting solutions. I really want my children to feel loved and feel seen through the work that we have collectively as a family put out into the world. I hope that they see when they're older that they have deeply inspired me to dig deeper into my own identity and to love myself more and to be more open with sharing who I am as a person.

[Kai Rysdal]

That was Marissa Ferola, owner of Nine Winters in Cambridge, Massachusetts. We cannot do this series without you. So do us a favor, would you tell us how your economy is doing. You can do [e-mail] myeconomy this final note on the way out today saw this on Business Insider. A proposed law I can 100% support without without fear of being called political. Connecticut State Senator Martin Looney wants to require theaters to list movies, real start times, not just when the trailers start. And I am just gonna say here theater chain near my house. Looking at you. Half an hour of ads and trailers is just too much. Our daily production team includes Andy Corbin, Nicholas guillaume, Maria Hollenhorst, Iru Ekpenobi, Sarah Leeson, Sean McHenry and Sophia Terenzio. And I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow. Everybody, this is APM.