These sectors are bracing for price hikes

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Summary: "These Sectors Are Bracing for Price Hikes" (March 20, 2025)

In the March 20, 2025 episode of Marketplace hosted by Kai Ryssdal, the discussion centers around the economic ripple effects of tariffs, fluctuations in the housing market, the burgeoning role of artificial intelligence in productivity, a potential resurgence in Alaskan oil production, inflationary pressures from targeted tariffs, and the rise of micro trends in fashion and social media. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of the episode's key topics, insights, and expert opinions.

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1. The Ripple Effects of Tariffs on the Global Economy

Timestamp: 01:17 - 05:02

Overview: The episode opens with an in-depth analysis of President Trump's recent tariff implementations and their broader implications on both the American and global economies. Host Megan McCarty Carino explores how these tariffs are not isolated to domestic markets but are eliciting retaliatory measures from other nations, thereby impacting global growth and economic stability.

Key Insights:

• Catherine Dominguez, Economics Professor at the University of Michigan, explains the mechanism by which tariffs can strengthen the U.S. dollar. By making imported goods more expensive, demand for foreign currencies like the Euro decreases, leading to a stronger dollar. “If we want to buy some cheese from the Netherlands, we need some Euros... Lower demand for euros pushes down the currency's value relative to others,” Dominguez notes (03:00).

• Mitchell Hartman further elaborates that a stronger dollar makes American exports more expensive and less competitive internationally, potentially leading to job losses in export-oriented industries. “US goods denominated in dollars would be less competitive relative to goods denominated in other currencies,” he remarked (03:25).

• Alej Itzoki, an Economics Professor at Harvard, underscores the unintended consequences of tariffs, highlighting that while some jobs may be created domestically, others could be lost due to decreased export profitability (04:20).

Conclusion: The segment concludes that while tariffs aim to boost domestic production, they may inadvertently lead to a less efficient global economy and increased prices for consumers. “It's a tax that causes prices to rise and economic growth to stall,” Dominguez summarizes (04:56).

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2. Mixed Signals in the Housing Market

Timestamp: 05:02 - 08:27

Overview: The housing market presents a complex picture with contradictory data on home sales. While February saw a 4.2% increase in existing home sales compared to the previous month, January experienced a significant 4.7% decline from December. This volatility is attributed to factors such as mortgage rates and regional market variations.

Key Insights:

• Real Estate Experts across the country report differing conditions:

  • Mike Frank of Keller Williams in Chicago describes a seller-friendly market with limited inventory and multiple offers.
  • Debbie Kahlfels from Coldwell Banker in Syracuse notes a 10% slowdown in listings year-to-date, indicating a cooling market in certain regions (06:20).
  • Steve Scott, a realtor in Charlotte, North Carolina, points out that despite builder incentives, the market remains slow for first-time buyers due to an influx of retirees moving to Texas (07:40).

• Molly Yarborough Steel at Compass Real Estate in Houston observes a surge in starter homes in the suburbs but highlights concerns about the sustainability of cash offers amid fluctuating financial markets (07:55).

Conclusion: The housing market remains highly localized, with some areas experiencing growth and others facing slowdowns. The overall outlook heading into the spring buying season appears cautiously optimistic but varies significantly by region. “Real estate's always local,” Kahlfels emphasizes (07:23).

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3. Artificial Intelligence: A Catalyst for Productivity?

Timestamp: 08:27 - 13:44

Overview: The discussion shifts to worker productivity in the United States, which has seen a notable increase of 2.7% last year—outpacing historical averages. The conversation delves into whether artificial intelligence (AI) will sustain and amplify this productivity surge.

Key Insights:

• Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University, a proponent of AI-driven productivity, references studies showing significant gains in various sectors. “Customer service agents who started using an AI large language model showed their productivity improved as much as 34%,” he states (10:13).

• Robert Gordon, Professor at Northwestern University and author of The Rise and Fall of American Growth, offers a counterpoint. He remains skeptical, arguing that despite advancements like smartphones and apps, the overall impact on productivity has been modest compared to historical technological breakthroughs. “It's not going to be a revolution. It's not going to blow out human nature,” Gordon asserts (10:28).

• Joseph Briggs from Goldman Sachs suggests that while AI has the potential to enhance productivity by up to 15% over the next decade, widespread benefits will take time as businesses adapt their workflows and train their workforce (11:10).

• Annie Daedish of Wilson Sonsini explains the current state of AI integration in legal services. While AI tools aid in efficiency, human oversight remains essential, delaying the full realization of productivity gains (12:04).

Conclusion: The debate between Brynjolfsson and Gordon highlights the uncertainty surrounding AI's long-term impact on productivity. While early signs are promising, especially with rapid AI adoption, the true extent of its benefits may only become clear in the coming years. “AI is still kind of new, and so you're still monitoring it and supervising it like it's that new person,” Pierce explains (12:30).

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4. Alaskan Oil Production: A Potential Comeback

Timestamp: 13:44 - 16:18

Overview: Alaskan oil production, which had significantly declined since its peak in 1988, may be poised for a resurgence. A report from the Energy Information Administration forecasts the largest production increase in decades next year.

Key Insights:

• Daniel Ackerman from Marketplace details the historical decline in Alaskan oil output and the recent factors contributing to its potential revival. “Two new oil developments in Alaska are expected to boost production,” he reports (14:18).

• Charles Mason, Economist at the University of Wyoming, explains that many of Alaska's oil fields are mature, meaning without drilling new wells, production naturally tapers off. “The only way you arrest that is by having more wells drilled,” Mason states (14:49).

• Ellen R. Wald of the Atlantic Council highlights challenges such as environmental conservation measures and the harsh Arctic environment, which impede new developments (15:10).

• Jeff Kralewitz from Argus Media notes that new refineries in California are now designed to process Alaskan crude, potentially enhancing the broader domestic oil economy (15:45).

Conclusion: While promising developments could lead to increased Alaskan oil production, significant barriers remain. The investment in infrastructure and potential future expansions could pave the way for sustained growth, albeit not to peak levels. “They put in all of the investment and the infrastructure, which could make future expansion easier,” Ackerman concludes (15:31).

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5. Inflationary Pressures from Targeted Tariffs

Timestamp: 19:56 - 23:08

Overview: The episode examines how new tariffs, particularly those imposed in April, are expected to influence inflation across various sectors. From cookware to automobiles, these tariffs are poised to elevate consumer prices and impact supply chains.

Key Insights:

• Chris DeMoss, Senior Director of Plant Foods at MFA Incorporated, discusses the delayed impact of tariffs on Canadian potash fertilizer, a crucial component for domestic agriculture. “80% of what we use domestically comes from Canada,” DeMoss explains (20:45).

• Omer Sharif, Head of Inflation Insights, anticipates immediate price increases for goods heavily reliant on Chinese imports, such as furniture, cookware, and footwear. “Tariffs went up 20%. Prices went up 18%,” he references past data to illustrate the trend (21:05).

• Robert Gordon highlights the significant cost implications for the automotive industry, with potential tariff-induced price hikes ranging between $4,000 to $10,000 per vehicle. “The typical model would see a tariff cost increase of between $4 and $10,000,” Gordon warns (21:59).

• Elijah Oliveros Rosen of S&P Global Ratings points out that construction materials like steel, aluminum, and lumber from Canada could see substantial price increases, thereby exerting additional inflationary pressure on the U.S. housing market (22:32).

Conclusion: The implementation of new tariffs is expected to create a cascade of price increases across various consumer goods, contributing to overall inflation. While some sectors may absorb these costs, others, particularly those dependent on imported materials, will pass the increased expenses onto consumers. “It's going to have an impact, there's no doubt,” DeMoss affirms (20:59).

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6. The Rise of Micro Trends in Fashion and Social Media

Timestamp: 23:08 - 28:00

Overview: In a departure from economic discussions, the episode explores the phenomenon of micro trends in fashion and social media, delving into how rapidly changing styles impact young people's perceptions and consumption behaviors.

Key Insights:

• Callie Holterman from the New York Times discusses the emergence of micro trends—rapidly fluctuating aesthetic movements that gain and lose popularity within weeks. Examples include "coastal grandmother" and "cottage core" (23:08).

• Young people express a growing awareness of the manipulative nature of these trends. They recognize how platforms like TikTok amplify trend cycles, often leading to feelings of insecurity and pressure to conform. “They understand that short form video platforms like TikTok and fast fashion are kind of working together to speed up the trend cycle,” Callie notes (24:32).

• Callie shares anecdotes from teenagers and young adults who feel trapped by the incessant demand to stay updated with new trends, despite their understanding of its exploitative mechanics. “I can feel that this is happening and I am really trying to take a step back from it,” one young woman shares (26:19).

• The discussion also touches on the environmental consciousness of younger generations, who are increasingly critical of the consumption-driven nature of micro trends. “A trend is, at its core a structure for advertising and selling something,” Callie explains (25:24).

Conclusion: Micro trends represent a double-edged sword for young consumers—providing avenues for self-expression while simultaneously fostering consumerism and economic pressure. The sustainability of this trend cycle remains uncertain as newer generations may adapt or rebel against its rapid pace. “Gen Alpha will be even more clued into trends than the generations that came before,” Callie predicts (27:54).

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Final Notes

The episode concludes with a brief mention of Klarna's new partnership with DoorDash, allowing consumers to split payments for food deliveries. This segment, however, is part of the advertisement section and is thus outside the scope of this summary.

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Notable Quotes:

• “If we want to buy some cheese from the Netherlands, we need some Euros... Lower demand for euros pushes down the currency's value relative to others.” — Catherine Dominguez (03:00)

• “It's a tax that causes prices to rise and economic growth to stall.” — Catherine Dominguez (04:56)

• “Real estate's always local.” — Debbie Kahlfels (07:23)

• “Customer service agents who started using an AI large language model showed their productivity improved as much as 34%.” — Erik Brynjolfsson (10:13)

• “It's not going to be a revolution. It's not going to blow out human nature.” — Robert Gordon (10:28)

• “They put in all of the investment and the infrastructure, which could make future expansion easier.” — Daniel Ackerman (15:31)

• “A trend is, at its core a structure for advertising and selling something.” — Callie Holterman (25:24)

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This comprehensive summary captures the multifaceted discussions from the episode, providing listeners and non-listeners alike with a clear understanding of the economic dynamics at play across various sectors.

Transcript

[Kai Rysdal]

Hello listeners. Our goal at Marketplace is to raise the economic intelligence of the country. And that goes for teens and young adults, too. The newest season of Financially Inclined, hosted by Yaneli Espinal, tackles topics like how to align your values with your money decisions, the skill of negotiating, and what you can get out of internships. Financially Inclined is presented in partnership with Greenlight, the debit card and money app for teens. Greenlight helps teens learn to earn, save, spend wisely and invest. Tune in to Financially Inclined wherever you find your podcasts.

[Justin Ho]

Life sustains itself by cell division. So does cancer. Breast cancer cells multiply faster because of CDK46 proteins. But what if we could block those proteins and stop runaway cell division? To that end, Dana Farber scientists laid the foundation for CDK46 inhibitors, new drugs that are increasing the survival rate for many advanced breast cancers. Dana Farber's momentum of discovery keeps finding new ways to outmaneuver cancer. Learn [e-mail] Everywhere Just Cause you never.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Can have enough tariff news. That's what's on the show today. Okay, that's not true. You can have enough tariff news. From American public media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Conv Rysdal. It is Thursday today. This one is the 20th of March. Good as it always is to have you along, everybody. President Trump's tariffs are affecting a lot of things in this economy and we have talked about those things a lot the past couple of weeks. But but what happens in the American economy most definitely does not stay in the American economy. There are retaliatory tariffs either already in place or coming soon. There are the hits to global growth that are almost certainly coming. And there are what might be termed unintended, although perhaps unthought about works as well, consequences. The President says taxing imports because again, tariffs or taxes on American consumers, the President says that will boost domestic production. American consumers will then buy more American made goods and American manufacturers will then sell more to consumers overseas. Which fine, until one remembers what tariffs are going to do to the value of the dollar. Marketplace's Justin Ho gets us going.

[Catherine Dominguez]

Here's the if you want to buy goods from another country and import them, you typically have to buy them in that foreign country's currency.

[Mitchell Hartman]

So if we want to buy some cheese from the Netherlands, we need some Euros to buy the cheese with, because.

[Catherine Dominguez]

That'S what they sell it in. Ed Gresser at the Progressive Policy Institute says if the US Government slaps a tariff on that cheese, it becomes more expensive. Consumers buy less of it, grocery stores stock less, which means the demand for.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Euros has gone down relative to the dollar.

[Catherine Dominguez]

And lower demand for euros pushes down the currency's value relative to others.

[Mitchell Hartman]

That would then lead to a stronger dollar.

[Catherine Dominguez]

Catherine Dominguez is an economics professor at the University of Michigan. So far this year, the dollar's value has been ticking down, Dominguez says. That's in large part because importers have been trying to bring in extra goods ahead of the president's tariffs.

[Mitchell Hartman]

So we've actually been buying more imports, therefore needing more foreign currency, therefore driving up the value of foreign currency relative to the dollar.

[Catherine Dominguez]

But once new tariffs start taking a bite out of imports, the dollar's value is likely to strengthen again. And that will make American exports more expensive for foreign buyers, meaning that now.

[Mitchell Hartman]

US goods denominated in dollars would be less competitive relative to goods denominated in other currencies.

[Catherine Dominguez]

That's when American companies are likely to turn their attention to selling more goods to domestic consumers, maybe even open up new factories and create new jobs. But there's a big trade off to keep in mind, says Aleg Itzoki, an economics professor at Harvard.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Some jobs would be lost because it would be unprofitable to export because of the stronger value of the dollar.

[Catherine Dominguez]

Meanwhile, other countries that follow the US's lead and slap tariffs on American goods will end up turning inwards too.

[Mitchell Hartman]

The Canadian factories will turn to service the Canadian consumers instead of exporting to the United States, but US will be able to export less goods all around the world because of the stronger dollar.

[Catherine Dominguez]

It's hokey, says what we're talking about here is a less efficient global economy.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Because we started an equilibrium when it was efficient to produce in Canada for the American market. You lose efficiency as a result, and that's the tax that the consumers are.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Paying in the end of the day.

[Catherine Dominguez]

A tax that causes prices to rise and economic growth to stall.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace Wall street on this Thursday. Not a winner. Not bad, but not a winner. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. We got the latest data on existing home sales from the national association of realtors today, up 4.2% in February. That's month to month, which sounds pretty good until you hear that January's Data was down 4.7% from December. Now, housing data can and does bounce around weather, mortgage rates, just plain noise in the data. And right now, heading into the spring home buying season, the market does look slightly rosier than it did earlier this year. But housing markets can Also vary and vary a lot, actually, depending on where you are looking. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman. How's that one?

[Mitchell Hartman]

I've been doing a kind of round robin of calls to brokers and Realtors across the country recently, and some of what I heard could have been copied and pasted from one place to another.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

We've had a shortage of inventory.

[Mitchell Hartman]

So it's a good market for sellers, difficult market for buyers, less inventory, prices going up, buyers competing for properties. We're seeing a frenzy of activity, very limited inventory and multiple offers. That's Mike Frank at Keller Williams in Chicago, Debbie Kahlfels with Coldwell Banker in Syracuse, and Israel Hill at John L. Scott in Portland, Oregon. Kahlfels points out we're not seeing such low inventory everywhere. Real estate's always local. We always say that other parts of the country. Florida is an example. You know, condo market, a lot of listings there for a variety of reasons, insurance and condo fees. Now we just heard that Portland's a frenzy of housing activity. But Kahl fels says in the Syracuse area, listings are slowing down about 10% year to date. Similar story in Charlotte, N.C. says realtor Steve Scott, it's a little slow. Even with all the incentives that the builders are putting out, you know, it's slow. Meanwhile, Charlotte's got a wave of new buyers coming in. We have a lot of retirement people moving here from the north and some return from the south because they didn't like Florida, making it hard for first time buyers to compete but head south to Texas. I'm still seeing affordable houses, you know.

[Justin Ho]

300,000 for my first time home buyers.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Molly Yarborough Steel at Compass Real Estate in Houston says plenty of new starter homes are going up in the suburbs. She says the fiercest competition is for homes over a million dollars, where she's.

[Justin Ho]

Seeing a lot of cash offers, which is so amazing to me that this.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Many, this many people have this much cash. But with financial markets down sharply in recent weeks, some of that ready cash may start to dry up. I'm Mitchell Hartman, Marketplace.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

It's none of my business, really, but were you productive today? Did you get all your work done in the expected amount of time or ideally less time? I ask because worker productivity rising. Worker productivity, to be clear, is one of those key metrics that economists watch pretty closely. At its most basic, the formula is widgets produced per hour worked. And the more worker productivity there is, the more widgets that get made in the same amount of time. That's what leads to economic growth. And not coincidentally, Rising wages. Productivity in the United States has been on the upswing, up 2.7% last year, well above average. And historically, most of the big jumps in living standards, which is a proxy for productivity, have been driven by new technologies. The introduction of the steam engine, widespread electrification, Computers too, of course. And a lot of economists are hoping that the boost in productivity we're seeing right now might be the start of another long surge driven by AI Marketplace's Megan McCarty. Carino took a look at that.

[Kai Rysdal]

Two economists made a friendly bet a few years ago about how much productivity will grow this decade. Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert Gordon. Gordon registered the wager on the prediction website Long Bets and The stakes are.

[Mitchell Hartman]

$400, but I think it's more of a reputational bet.

[Kai Rysdal]

That's Brynjolfsson. He's a professor at Stanford, where he directs the Digital Economy Lab. And he's bullish on productivity. His own research on customer service agents who started using an AI large language model showed their productivity improved as much as 34%. And other recent studies on software development, business consulting, writing and sales showed similar results.

[Mitchell Hartman]

These are the biggest gains I've ever seen. I mean, to see like double digit gains just within a few months is almost unheard of.

[Kai Rysdal]

In the other corner, Robert Gordon, professor at Northwestern and author of the Rise and Fall of American Growth.

[Robert Gordon]

It's not going to be a revolution. It's not going to blow out human nature.

[Mitchell Hartman]

I think that's all greatly overblown.

[Kai Rysdal]

He believes AI will raise productivity, but points to the last 20 years or so of modest gains. Despite high tech innovations ranging from smartphones to the app economy.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Those things really are minor compared to.

[Robert Gordon]

The difference it made to have trucks instead of horses, to have airplanes instead of trains.

[Kai Rysdal]

For now, Brynjolfsson has pulled to the lead, though it's not clear yet if the bump in productivity we're seeing is evidence of the start of a durable AI boom. Joseph Briggs is a senior economist for Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

[Robert Gordon]

If we look at an economy wide basis, the impacts still look quite negligible.

[Kai Rysdal]

Goldman Sachs has forecast that once generative AI has been widely adopted, it could raise productivity in the US by 15% over 10 years. But Briggs thinks it will take a couple of years for AI to show up in productivity data.

[Mitchell Hartman]

You need to restructure workflows.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

You have to have workers comfortable using.

[Robert Gordon]

It, and all of these things take time.

[Kai Rysdal]

Briggs says companies are making big investments in the technology, especially in industries like law. Annie Daedish is the chief innovation officer for Silicon Valley law firm Wilson Sonsini, which works with a lot of tech startups. The firm developed an AI tool to help review agreements for cloud services.

[Mitchell Hartman]

You'd be negotiating them a lot. It would be high volume but a standard form. And suddenly automation and AI start to make sense.

[Kai Rysdal]

Wilson Sonsini uses AI trained on its own best practices to customize the agreements. Then a human lawyer reviews and finalizes them. The tech should eventually help the firm serve more clients faster, but it's not quite there yet.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Well, think about when you hire a new person, right? They're always going to kind of slow you down at first, but then they get trained up and then they can take over tasks.

[Kai Rysdal]

Right now the AI is still kind.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Of green, and so you're still monitoring it and supervising it like it's that new person, which will theoretically slow you down.

[Kai Rysdal]

It's a pattern you often see when a powerful new technology diffuses through the economy, says Stanford's Eric Brynjolfsson. @ first it looks like nothing is happening until suddenly productivity takes off in what he calls a J shaped curve.

[Mitchell Hartman]

With the steam engine, with electricity, with internal combustion engine. When we measured that, it often took literally decades. It took about 30 years for electricity to really have its full payoff.

[Kai Rysdal]

He expects AI to deliver productivity benefits much faster, since it doesn't require specialized hardware or skills to use. He's got until 2029 to win the bet whether a productivity boom from AI will be a win for most workers that he's not so sure about. I'm Megan McCarty Carino for Marketplace.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

There was a time when Alaska produced more crude oil than any other state in in the Union. That time, though, was 1988, and in the decades since, oil production in the 49th state has dropped by around 75%. But there is a report out this week from the Energy Information Administration that says Alaskan oil output's going to grow next year, the biggest production increase perhaps in decades. Daniel Ackerman has more on the rise and fall, and maybe the rise again, of Alaskan crude.

[Daniel Ackerman]

Oil Production in Alaska first took off in the 1970s after a series of global energy price shocks. Jeff Kralewitz is with the market intelligence firm Argus Media. He says that growth was helped along by the construction of the Trans Alaska Pipeline, which was able to take all.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Of this crude from the northern part of Alaska to the Port of Valdez in the southern part of the state and sell it.

[Daniel Ackerman]

Now, though, a lot of those northern oil fields are what they call in the business mature, says Charles Mason, an economist at the University of Wyoming.

[Mitchell Hartman]

So you get a certain amount of production early on and then it tends to taper off. And the only way you arrest that is by having more wells drilled.

[Daniel Ackerman]

Mason says that's been happening less lately in Alaska, in part because of conservation measures, but also because the Arctic tundra isn't an easy place to do business, says Ellen R. Wald of the Atlantic Council.

[Mitchell Hartman]

If you're going to need to build.

[Yaneli Espinal]

Pipelines, you can only transport those pipelines.

[Kai Rysdal]

To where you need them to be.

[Mitchell Hartman]

During the winter because you have to use ice roads.

[Daniel Ackerman]

Cheaper fracking has helped some other states surpass Alaska's output, but two new oil developments in Alaska are expected to boost production, not to anywhere near peak levels, says Wald.

[Mitchell Hartman]

But I do think that this is.

[Yaneli Espinal]

Meaningful because they put in all of.

[Mitchell Hartman]

The investment and the infrastructure, which could.

[Daniel Ackerman]

Make future expansion easier. Jeff Kralewitz of Argus Media says the changes could also be felt elsewhere in the domestic oil economy.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

A lot of the new refineries or the refinery modifications in California were designed.

[Daniel Ackerman]

To run Alaskan crude because as California's own production of crude has fallen, refineries there are now more reliant on oil from the Arctic. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

[Callie Holterman]

Coming up, a trend is at its core a structure for advertising and selling something.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

If you thought trends move fast, meet micro Trends. But first, let's do the numbers now. Industrials down 11 points. We'll call that flat 41,953. The NASDAQ off 59 points, about a third of 1%. 17,691. The S&P 500 down 12 points, about 2 10%. 56 and 62. Mitchell was talking about housing. Pulte Group, which operates in more than 45 markets around the country, rose 0.2%. Michigan homes, which builds in the Midwest and South, gained about a half percent. Today is the first day of spring, so some vernal stocks 1-800-flowers ticker symbol FLWS wilted 1 1/6/10% today. Sunoco traded as sun darkened 11 10% today. Bonds down yield on the 10 year T note 4.24%. You're listening to Marketplace.

[Mitchell Hartman]

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[Daniel Ackerman]

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[Mitchell Hartman]

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[Megan McCarty Carino]

This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. Alright, let's talk about inflation here for a second in the academic sense, not the oh man, egg prices are really high sense. Inflation is a broad based increase in the price of goods and services throughout the economy over time. And as we told you yesterday, Chair Powell and the gang at the Fed are keeping a close closer. We should say eye on price levels given the Trump tariffs that are already in place and the ones that are coming on the 2nd of April. But not all tariffs are created equal and not all prices react the same way. Marketplace's Sabri Benishore has more on that.

[Robert Gordon]

MFA Incorporated is a farmers cooperative based in Columbia, Missouri. It's owned by 40,000 ranchers and farmers. It sells a lot of fertilizer.

[Mitchell Hartman]

You know the two biggest wildcards in our business are weather and the government.

[Robert Gordon]

Chris DeMoss is senior director of Plant Foods and he says the least predictable one has always been the government. Potash fertilizer from Canada was going to get tariffs at the beginning of this month, but that was pushed back to April 2.

[Mitchell Hartman]

They're going to have an impact, there's no doubt, because 80% of what we use domestically comes from Canada.

[Robert Gordon]

But whatever that impact is, it's going to be delayed because there were a.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Lot of tons that were already in place for this spring. And so, you know, we'll probably have a better understanding of what all this means as we get into the summer period and go into the fall.

[Robert Gordon]

For other products, the delay is going to be much shorter. 20% tariffs on goods from China are going to start showing up on stickers in April, predicts Omer Sharif. He's head of Inflation Insights.

[Daniel Ackerman]

A lot of sort of furniture and.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Household goods, things like, you know, household appliances.

[Daniel Ackerman]

Furniture in particular is a big one. Cookware, cutlery.

[Robert Gordon]

71% of our cookware and cutlery is imported from China, he says 45% of all footwear is. And the prices for these goods tend to get handed on to consumers. That's what happened with washing machines in 2018.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Tariffs went up 20%. Prices went up 18%.

[Robert Gordon]

Andersen Economic Group analyzed the impact of the multiple layers of tariffs on cars over the next few months. Patrick Anderson is CEO.

[Mitchell Hartman]

The typical model produced by these manufacturers in North America would see a tariff cost increase of between 4 and $10,000.

[Robert Gordon]

His advice is buy that car now. Tomatoes from Canada and avocados from Mexico would see jumps pretty quickly in April. Other industries would not see much effect. Tariffs on oil, for example.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Canada would end up eating that because we have so much supply here.

[Robert Gordon]

Builders are nervous over construction materials. Elijah Oliveros Rosen is chief economist for Emerging markets at S and P Global Ratings.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Steel and aluminum is one, and also some goods that are imported from Canada, such as lumber, are very important for housing. So that could have a outsized impact on inflation in the U.S. but for.

[Robert Gordon]

Now, all of this is still mostly a waiting game. In New York, I'm Sabree Benishore for Marketplace.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Life today moves fast, and it moves even faster if you're a young person trying to keep up with everything that goes by you on your social media feed. Not just trends, but micro trends, things like and I am not making this up coastal grandmother, aesthetic and cottage core. And while marketplace core has somehow not caught on yet, we've called Callie Holterman from the style desk at the New York Times, who wrote about this the other day. We're going to catch Up. Callie, welcome to the program. Good to have you on.

[Callie Holterman]

Thanks for having me.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

All right, so trends I get in fashion, right. That's, you know, been a thing forever. Micro trends. Help me out.

[Callie Holterman]

Yeah, I hate to sort of come with the news of micro trends to you, which, of course, I'm slow to bring you.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

That's right. You should have been faster. The micro trends thing anyway.

[Callie Holterman]

But in recent years, especially sort of since COVID there have been all of these things that seem kind of like fashion trends. Perhaps it's a type of top or a print, like cheetah print, or even a little phrase like the mob wife aesthetic. But young people I talked to said they kind of rise and fall in a matter of months or even weeks.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

The really interesting part about it, well, many parts about it which were by turn interesting and horrifying, is that the younger kids, because these are like teenagers. Ish. Right. Who are, you know, getting absorbed by all this. They know what's happening.

[Callie Holterman]

Totally. I spent the past few months talking to a lot of teenagers and people in their 20s about sort of what the trend ecosystem feels like to them right now. And over and over, they. They sort of gave me these kind of sobering monologues about how they know that their attention is very valuable. They understand that things like short form video platforms like TikTok and fast fashion are kind of working together to speed up the trend. Cyc. And yet at times they can still feel caught up in it, and that can feel like a kind of confusing and trapped place to be in.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Yeah, I bet it is also, and they know this too. And, you know, being more environmentally aware, I suppose, than older generations, by and large, they feel bad about it. They know it's all about consumption. Right. It's about buying things quickly and then turning around and buying more things.

[Callie Holterman]

Absolutely, yeah. A trend is, at its core a structure for advertising and selling something. Um, it also can be a kind of more fun mode for self expression. But I think the consumption aspect of trends is really heavy on the minds of a lot of young people right now. And you hear the word consumption and it's kind of opposite over consumption all the time. When you get onto a platform like TikTok or Instagram.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Right. And. And while acknowledging that social media, you know, has done a lot of good for a whole lot of people, this is reason 3972 that social media can be bad, man.

[Callie Holterman]

Yeah, I heard from a lot of young people who sort of said that the proliferation of micro trends every year or a couple of Years, the way that might have been the case when, like, I was in middle school. There can be several a week. And it ratchets up the feeling of insecurity or inadequacy or if you, if you don't have and can't afford often that item.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Right. So on the whole can't afford thing, I mean, you know, fast fashion is cheap and a lot of these things are not incredibly expensive, but they add up and, you know, it's not nothing totally.

[Callie Holterman]

I spoke to one young woman who talked about, I think in middle school really, like begging her parents, saying she just started at a new school, she really wanted to fit in. And she mentioned the fact that she went to school and saw every girl at school had scrunchies, and then she went home and scrolled through TikTok and saw, you know, another 20 videos of girls with scrunchies. And it, I think, ratcheted up that feeling for her of, oh, I'm not going to fit in without this. But as our conversation went on, she was one of several young people who express to me, I can feel that this is happening and I am really trying to take a step back from it. And so many of these young people who again, know what is going on are, I think, trying to take steps backwards from the trend cycle, although sometimes they are finding that difficult to do well.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

So where do you land on this? Right? Is this going to keep going and will it get faster and faster or is it eventually going to die out because teenagers just go, I can't do this anymore more.

[Callie Holterman]

It's funny, I've posed this question to so many experts and I heard a lot of really conflicting things. On one hand, there are people who think that, you know, TikTok is in jeopardy right now. On the other hand, one person I talked to who writes a daily trend newsletter said, you know, I do think Gen Z is, is growing up and they're wising up to trends, but coming up right behind them is Gen Alpha. And she thinks that members of Gen Alpha will be even more clued into trends than the generations that came before.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

I had such hope there. And then you got the Gen Alpha.

[Callie Holterman]

Sorry about that.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

That's all right. All right. Callie Holterman at the New York Times, the Style desk. Callie, thanks a lot. I appreciate your time.

[Callie Holterman]

Yeah, thanks for having me.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

This final note on the way out today, which, I mean, Klarna, which is a buy now, pay later service, has announced a new partnership with DoorDash, so you can pay for your food when it gets delivered. You can split it into four easy payments. No interest by the way, or you can put it off to a date that aligns with your payday. It is perhaps worth a note here that Klarna is set to go public on the New York Stock Exchange. Ticker symbol is going to be kicked. Should you be interested or in need of, you know, find out paying later for your food. John Buckley, John Gordon, Noya Kardi at the Parker Amanda Pieter and Stephanie Sikh are the Marketplace editing staff. Amir Bibawe is the managing editor and I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow, Everybody. This is APM.

[Yaneli Espinal]

Consumer confidence had its sharpest monthly decline since 2021, which means we're all in our feels about money. And while uncertainty is the only constant these days, it's also a great reason to get serious about understanding personal finance. I'm Janelie Espinal, host of Financially Inclined, a podcast from Marketplace that makes learning about money simple. Learn about money practical skills like negotiating job offers, dealing with money and friendship and love, entrepreneurship and student loans. Get serious about your money and build a life you've always dreamed of. Listen to Financially Inclined wherever you get your podcasts.