Loading summary
Kai Ryssdal
This Marketplace podcast is supported by the Glassdoor app. See who's hiring, what they're paying and join anonymous conversations with professionals like you in the new Glassdoor community. Whether you're job seeking or want to get more out of your current role, Glassdoor now offers real time tips for career success from leading voices like best selling author Adam Grant. Make the most of your work life, Find your work people on the Glassdoor app and get ahead together.
Ad Sponsor
This Marketplace podcast is supported by Remarkable, the ultimate paper tablet that truly captures the feel of writing on paper with smart digital tools. The Remarkable Paper Pro helps you take better notes and stay focused with no social media, email or games to distract you. Built with sustainable materials, you can go for weeks on a single charge and utilize the reading light to use your Remarkable Paper Pro anytime night or day. Get your Tablet today@remarkable.com.
Kyle Ryssdal
Interest rates, but not the Federal Reserve Kind From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kyle Rysdal. It is Thursday today, the 2nd 6th of February. Good as always to have you along everybody. We begin today by flipping through the well used folder that we keep around here labeled sure you can try to fight the market. Our protagonist this time is Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, who told reporters this week the Trump administration isn't really so much focused on the Federal Reserve and how and whether it's going to cut interest rates, but rather the White House is just going to work on bringing bond yields down. Specifically the yield on the 10 year treasury note. Marketplace's Sabri Benishore gets us going with why the administration might want to bring bond yields down and how that might go.
Sabri Benishore
It makes sense that the president would want 10 year yields to come down. Plenty of people would love that.
Brian Railing
So a lot of consumers feel what happens in tenure rates.
Sabri Benishore
Brian Railing is head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The rate of return on US 10 year bonds influences interest rates all over the economy, credit cards, car loans, mortgages.
Brian Railing
So if the 10 year yield goes lower then mortgage rates are going to go lower. So you know people are going to be able to better reform homes.
Sabri Benishore
So how might one bring down the yield on 10 year bonds? Here's what Treasury Secretary Scott Besant told Bloomberg today.
Brian Railing
With the President's policies of energy dominance, deregulation and non inflationary growth, I think that the tenure is going to naturally come down.
Sabri Benishore
When he says energy dominance there, Besant is referring to the administration's desire for the US to produce more oil, bring down energy prices and lower inflation. Inflation. It just so happens can drive up treasury yields. So, so bringing inflation down can bring yields down.
Kyle Ryssdal
We wouldn't see that for quite a number of years.
Sabri Benishore
Ken Kutner is professor of economics at Williams College.
Kyle Ryssdal
You can reduce the oil price, but then once it stabilizes, then inflation is kind of back where it started.
Sabri Benishore
So drill, baby, drill might not actually bring yields down. There is another way to do it again.
Brian Railing
Brian Railing, shrink the deficit or the amount we have to borrow.
Sabri Benishore
If the government isn't as desperate to borrow money, it won't have to offer as high a return on bonds to get people to lend to it.
Brian Railing
Then yes, you're likely going to see the 10 year yield fall lower because we don't have to issue as many 10 year bonds to fund the debt and the deficit.
Sabri Benishore
Besant has said cutting government spending could do this, but shrinking the deficit is also a heavy lift for an administration planning tax cuts that could cost several trillion dollars. Even with an Elon Musk led department of Government Efficiency. Gila Ba is chief fixed income strategist with Jani Montgomery Scott.
Gila Ba
I am skeptical that cost cuts will be large enough to make a material difference in the size of the budget deficit.
Sabri Benishore
He says the administration has good intentions with a dose of wishful thinking. In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore for.
Kyle Ryssdal
Marketplace Wall Street Today. A little of this, little of that. We'll have the details when we do. The number one of the brighter spots in this economy over the past couple of years has been worker productivity. How much stuff we're making compared to how much time we spend doing it. We learned this morning productivity in the fourth quarter of last year was up 1.2%. That's annualized. Of course, it is the ninth straight quarter of growth. Economists keep a real close eye on productivity because growing it having a more productive economy is a more prosperous economy. Incomes go up and along with them, standards of living. Higher productivity can also help keep a lid on inflation. So Marketplace's Justin Ho looked at a few of the factors that have been pushing productivity up of late, and he started at a machine shop in Simi Valley, California.
Justin Ho
The shop I'm standing in is a training center run by the Simi Institute for Careers in Technology. Liz Valdez is a student here. She's setting up a tool called a vertical mill so she can shape a piece of metal.
Kai Ryssdal
This is a piece of aluminum right here, which is a lot more malleable than like steel.
Justin Ho
Valdez used to wait tables, but last summer she quit and became a full time student at the machine shop. A Big reason she signed up for this class, she says, is because a job in manufacturing will pay much more than she was making waiting tables, especially if she's fully trained and certified before she even starts.
Kyle Ryssdal
The more you do it, the more.
Kai Ryssdal
You practice, it becomes easier and you kind of. I'm so glad that I can, you know, kind of trip and fall here and not over there.
Justin Ho
Hiring someone who can hit the ground running improves productivity because it can help a business boost output without sacrificing much time, says Agar Linskop, the class instructor. Typically, most employers, if they're in the position of hiring, they need someone to come in and do work and not take one of their already skilled machinists out of the production line to train new people. Companies can also improve productivity by investing in technology.
Brian Railing
We placed on order a new state of the art piece of equipment that'll be arriving here in Q1.
Justin Ho
That's Wayne Woodard, CEO of Argonaut Manufacturing Services, a company in Carlsbad, California, that manufactures drugs and diagnostic tests for healthcare companies. The equipment he bought is an automated filling line that packages drugs into vials, syringes, and cartridges.
Brian Railing
That's the final stage in that manufacturing process for delivering those products into the market.
Justin Ho
Woodard says all of this has traditionally been done by hand. Automating it helps take human error out of the equation, which means fewer mistakes and more product. It also speeds things up and requires fewer workers to begin with, which could lead to fewer jobs.
Brian Railing
So you're down to sort of three or four folks on a line, maybe a little bit more. Depends on how big the line is, where before you might have had 10, 12 humans doing that kind of work.
Justin Ho
Not every business can improve productivity with a machine. Matt Hettrick runs an accounting firm called Harmony Group. He says the only way he can make his business more productive is to make his staff better at their jobs. And that requires years of experience.
Brian Railing
If you're a tax cpa, for example, your first tax season is the first time you've seen how different forms work, how these conceptual ideas actually play out for a client. You simply can't teach that in a book. You have to learn how to do it.
Justin Ho
So Hetrick says his strategy for boosting productivity is to retain the staff he has so workers stick with the company and have time to develop. Hetrick says he gives every employee a clear plan to move up within the company. He also hosts regular training sessions and weekly office hours. And he lets all of his staff work from home.
Brian Railing
We find that that's amazing for Retention. Because what we're saying to our staff is, hey, you come here. We're going to treat you like professionals. We're not going to micromanage you. Yes, you're working from home, but, yes, you are a professional who's on a world's path.
Justin Ho
As a result, Hedrick says accountants who've stuck with the company are able to take on more clients, which means the business can pull in more revenue. He says that's helping his firm stay afloat, especially since right now he feels like charging his clients more is not an option.
Brian Railing
We don't have pricing power to drive pricing up, so we have to be more productive to sell the same service at approximately the same price.
Justin Ho
And he says higher productivity also helps him pay his workers higher wages. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.
Kyle Ryssdal
Just about two years ago, I had a chat with Mara Herpgersman and Emily Biligis about their then new restaurant wine bar called the Ruby Fruit. It was the first lesbian bar to open in Los Angeles since 2017. And I asked Mara back then how that was possible.
Kai Ryssdal
It is pretty well known that women have a harder time getting capital in business.
Kyle Ryssdal
True for you.
Kai Ryssdal
Yes and no. I mean, we. We're not fully funded yet. So I can definitely speak to being a new business owner that it's difficult to get funding, at least from banks and things because you need to have assets and other capital, which doesn't make any sense because we're just getting started. So we're still trying to kind of put some pieces together as far as that goes.
Kyle Ryssdal
They bootstrapped the place open with a single $25,000 loan from a friend, so no reserves to tide them over. And about a month ago, right after the fire started, they posted on Instagram that they were closing their doors. Not permanently, they hoped, more of a pause. Anyway, I took a swing by last week. It's okay.
Gila Ba
You don't have to whisper.
Kai Ryssdal
It's okay. Welcome back.
Brian Railing
Good to see.
Kyle Ryssdal
Good to see you again.
Kai Ryssdal
Good. Oh, you know.
Kyle Ryssdal
Well, we get there. Hang on. That's why we're here. What a stupid question to start with. K. The place looks pretty much the same. Bright pink walls, books and wine bottles on some shelves. There were people working in the kitchen, temporarily renting it out to make meals for first responders. So how did you come to the decision to pause? The way I read the post on Social was the fires were a thing that happened and it was a bad thing that happened, but it had been sort of a series of events.
Kai Ryssdal
Yeah.
Mara Herpgersman
You know, when you Lose a week of sales, which we did because of the fires. There was no money coming in. And for us, because we have no reserves. I mean, when no money comes in, you don't have any money.
Kyle Ryssdal
Right.
Kai Ryssdal
And things started, I mean, to back it up of what you're referring to, like, things started to get tricky for us, like, right when the kind of Hollywood strikes were, you know, an issue in la. And that was the first moment that we really kind of were starting.
Kyle Ryssdal
And that was 23ish.
Kai Ryssdal
Exactly like the fall 2023.
Kyle Ryssdal
So six months after you guys opened, give or take. Right.
Kai Ryssdal
And we had, you know, our first year. We were really fortunate and we kind of rode the wave of like, opening excitement.
Kyle Ryssdal
Sure.
Kai Ryssdal
And the money that we made our first year, we were able to pay off the business, which was very great, voraciously funded by the previous owners. But paying that off coincided with the strikes happening and this, like, slowdown of what we saw, a slowdown in restaurants all over Los Angeles. This wasn't a Ruby Fruit problem. This was like a Los Angeles restaurant.
Kyle Ryssdal
Economy problem before any of this happened. Well, between the strikes saying, and the fires, how are you guys doing? I mean, I don't come down here a lot, but when I drive by on sunset during yalls business hours, it seems pretty crowded.
Kai Ryssdal
Yeah, I mean, overall it was like, really great. We have a really amazing community following and we are really fortunate to have, like, a very dedicated clientele.
Mara Herpgersman
But again, I think it's hard to overstate just how dependent we are on every single dollar that every single person who comes in here spends. And some days our sales are truly down to the dollar in order to break even.
Kyle Ryssdal
Which to me translates into margins. Right?
Kai Ryssdal
Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Labor is expensive, as it should be, because people should get paid what they're worth, of course, but the cost of food, the cost of rent, the cost of utilities, all these things are really expensive right now. People feel it, you know, when they go to the grocery store. It's no different for us.
Kyle Ryssdal
This is none of my business and I should. You should never take business advice from me. Why don't you? Why. Why aren't you selling cocktails?
Kai Ryssdal
We would love to get a full liquor license, and that has been cost prohibitive for us.
Kyle Ryssdal
How much is a liquor license?
Kai Ryssdal
Well, first of all, you can't just go and buy one. There's a certain amount that are available, and so you have to find one. And between the fees and how much they cost, that can easily run you $150,000. Like if you're lucky.
Kyle Ryssdal
Seriously?
Kai Ryssdal
Oh, correct. And that doesn't even.
Kyle Ryssdal
This is why Kai's not in business.
Kai Ryssdal
Well. And not in the restaurant business specifically.
Kyle Ryssdal
Specifically.
Justin Ho
Or in weather business.
Kyle Ryssdal
But that's a whole bucket restaurant.
Mara Herpgersman
And they're right.
Kai Ryssdal
They're right. But also, that doesn't even cover how the bar needs to be modified in order to accommodate the possibility of serving cocktails.
Kyle Ryssdal
So what's the plan? What are you going to do? Because the place is still here. It's. The lights are literally. The lights are still on.
Kai Ryssdal
The lights are still on.
Kyle Ryssdal
You've paused. But how you gonna. How are you gonna get somewhere?
Kai Ryssdal
Well, I think the first thing to note is that we have obligations. Right. We have a lease. But we. We hope to reopen. We hope that this is a step for us to take a minute and sort of regroup and assess what was going really well and what we needed to fix in order to move forward.
Kyle Ryssdal
Okay, so let's interrogate that for a second.
Kai Ryssdal
Yeah.
Kyle Ryssdal
What was going really well? You had a community.
Kai Ryssdal
Yes.
Mara Herpgersman
Yep. Community engagement. And I think this speaks to the next part of, like, what we need to address in order to move forward. The space and the community and the needs of all of that became, I think, so much larger than we thought. If you look around, there's about 30 seats here.
Kyle Ryssdal
Okay. Give or take. Yep.
Mara Herpgersman
So there's that. There's physical space, but then there's also this sort of need when a thing you built immediately sort of outgrows what you can offer.
Kyle Ryssdal
But that's such a good problem to have.
Kai Ryssdal
It is. But now the biggest piece of this puzzle is money, is that we started this marketplace, after all.
Kyle Ryssdal
Thank you.
Kai Ryssdal
We started with nothing. And in order to grow, we need more money behind us. And so we are right now looking for an investor or some sort of financial backing to help us bring this, you know, larger project now to fruition.
Kyle Ryssdal
You're not necessarily only looking for investment and interest from your community. Right. You know, I mean, I'm overstating, but you'll take money from anybody, I think. You know what I mean?
Kai Ryssdal
I mean.
Kyle Ryssdal
Right. Yeah. I think.
Kai Ryssdal
I think it's important to note that the ruby fruit cannot ride on the backs of a marginalized community. And it is necessary that we offer seats at the table to folks outside of our community so that they can support a queer space.
Kyle Ryssdal
What's your biggest worry? That you won't be able to do it, I guess.
Mara Herpgersman
Oh, my gosh. That's a great question. I have, like, 4,000 words.
Kyle Ryssdal
I'm sure There are a lot of.
Mara Herpgersman
Surface that I don't even want to get into sort of the state of things, you know, in this country right now and globally. I think my biggest worry is that we will not be able to put all of these pieces together. And pardon my use of like a very tired old cliche, but it's like this chicken or the egg thing where I don't know what part needs to happen first or does that need to happen first? It all needs to happen kind of all at once.
Kyle Ryssdal
Right, right.
Kai Ryssdal
And I think my biggest worry is the time constraints because we are really on very limited time frame here and we ultimately probably only have till the end of March.
Kyle Ryssdal
That's like tomorrow.
Kai Ryssdal
You're right. Yeah. So that's, that's the, that's the thing that worries me the most. I know that we can garner support from our community. I know that we can somehow find this money, but I'm worried that we can't do all of these things in time.
Kyle Ryssdal
Here's a very practical question. How are you doing it? Are you just leveraging your contacts and saying, do you know anybody with a quarter million dollars?
Kai Ryssdal
I mean, we have a lot of folks who have reached out to us to offer support. And so we are reaching out to our community and asking for help in ways that we have not asked for before. I think Emily and I have been a little bit stubborn and sort of we can handle this ourselves. And that is simply just not true any longer. And so we need help. And that's what we're doing right now is reaching out for help.
Kyle Ryssdal
Thanks, you guys.
Kai Ryssdal
Thank you, Kai.
Mara Herpgersman
Thank you, Kai.
Gila Ba
Coming up, I was instead all the way in the back and sort of looking out over everyone's head.
Kyle Ryssdal
Sometimes the best seat in the house is not up front. But first, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials down 125 today. Three 10%. 44,747. The NASDAQ added 99 points, about a half percent. 19,791. The S&P 500 found 22 points to the good, just shy of four. 10%, 6083. You can call this one Doing a GE. If you know, you know. Honeywell said it plans to spin off its aerospace and automation divisions as separate companies. It also said it expects profits for this fiscal year to come in below Wall Street's estimates. Said street was unimpressed. Honeywell descended 5.2% today. Super microcomputer added 7.5% on the day after announcing its new AI server systems are available. The chips therein come from Nvidia. Accumulated 3 and a 10th percent on the day today bonds fell, yield on the 10 year treasury note rose. Hello Secretary Besant. That's a bond market paging you 4.43% on the 10 year. You're listening to Marketplace.
Kai Ryssdal
This Marketplace podcast is supported by Gusto. Look, payday's awesome but running payroll, calculating taxes and deductions, staying compliant, that's not easy. Unless of course you have Gusto. Gusto is a simple online payroll and benefits tool built for small businesses like yours. Gusto gets your team paid while automatically filing your payroll taxes. Plus you can offer benefits like 401k, health insurance and workers computer just for listening. Today you also get three months free. Go to gusto.com marketplace that's gusto.com marketplace.
Ad Sponsor
This Marketplace podcast is supported by Hydro There are few worse places on earth than a gym during the month of January. If Getting fit for 2025 is on your resolution list, don't let the chaotic gym crowds get in your way. Get an immersive full body workout all from the comfort of home with the Hydro Rower. Hydro is your go to for the ultimate full body workout. It's designed by rowers so you know it's going to get the job done all in 20 minutes. Also, Hydro has you covered with free standard shipping, a 30 day risk free trial and a one year warranty. Kick off the new year with a full body workout all from the comfort of home with Hydro. Head over to hydro.com and use code marketplace to save up to $475 off your Hydro Pro Rower. That's H Y-R-O-W.com marketplace to save up to $475. Hydro.com code marketplace serious about investing?
Bob Iger
You need to know about public.com that's where you can invest in everything stocks, options, bonds and crypto. They even offer some of the highest yields in the industry like the bond account's 6% or higher yield that remains locked in even if the Fed cuts rates. What sets Public apart is how they give you the tools you need to make informed investment decisions. Their built in AI tool called Alpha doesn't just tell you if an asset is moving, it tells you why the asset is moving so you can actually understand what's driving your portfolio's performance. Public is a FINRA registered SIPC insured US based company with a customer support team that actually cares. Bottom line, your investments deserve a platform that takes them as seriously as you do. Fund your account in five minutes or less at public.commarketplace and get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's public.commarketplace paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions LLC. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures this is Marketplace.
Kyle Ryssdal
I'm Kai Ryssdal. The Walt Disney Company has high hopes for a new model of paid TV that looks a whole lot like the old model of paid tv, just less. CEO Bob Iger said this week that a new set of Skinny Bundle apps could help bring ESPN to bigger audiences as the subscriber count of the standalone ESPN streaming app is down and as paid TV subscribers are generally continuing to cut the cord. But Marketplace's Megan McCarty Carino has the.
Meagan McCarty Carino
Skinny this idea has been around since ye olden days of cable tv, a.
Bob Iger
Smaller cable package that's cheaper but in.
Meagan McCarty Carino
The past, Ross Benish, senior analyst at Emarketer, says high value content like sports was pretty much never on the menu.
Bob Iger
You couldn't just like get ESPN and nothing else from Disney if you were.
Ad Sponsor
A pay TV operator.
Bob Iger
But there's more flexibility on that now.
Meagan McCarty Carino
Last month, Comcast and DirecTV announced new services that bring together most of the top sports and news channels and nothing else. At 70 bucks a month, they're not exactly lightweight, but they're at least 10 bucks cheaper than comprehensive live TV services from YouTube or Hulu. That puts them in a sweet spot, says Elizabeth Parks at market researcher Parks Associates.
Kai Ryssdal
We're tracking consumers spending about $71 a month now, and that's actually a Dr. From a peak of $91 we saw a few quarters ago.
Meagan McCarty Carino
The Skinny Bundle model could be repeated across different genres, says Vincent Peturo, a professor of media studies at Metropolitan State University, Denver.
Kai Ryssdal
We're going to have a skinny bundle.
Gila Ba
Of sci fi, a skinny bundle of documentaries. I think what these companies have to find is the point where people will pay for what they want, but also convenience, too.
Meagan McCarty Carino
While going a la carte might have seemed like an answer to the bloated buffet of cable TV packages, the smorgasbord of streamers also became overwhelming.
Justin Ho
It was too specific, too expensive and.
Gila Ba
It was too confusing.
Meagan McCarty Carino
However, sports fans hoping to survive on a Skinny Bundle diet may be disappointed. Pro leagues like the NFL are increasingly selling game rights directly to streamers like Netflix or Amazon that aren't in any bundles. I'm Meagan McCarty Carino for Marketplace.
Kyle Ryssdal
You know those optical illusions where you might see a vase? If you focus on an image one way, two faces, if you look at it, Another point being, changing your perspective can sometimes change how you see the world. Naveen Kumar, the Washington Post's theater critic, learned that the hard way when a back injury forced him to watch a bunch of plays standing up.
Gila Ba
You know, I think I sat through one show where I was sort of writhing around in the seat being like, I really can't do this. Then I started to figure out, like, I asked the press reps on the shows, like, hey, can I stand up to see this show? Because I could still think clearly and do my job as long as I could be standing up. Early on when I asked to do this, one set of producers said, oh, we're worried about your sight lines all the way in the back. Because it was a really big theater. And they thought, you know, I won't be able to see the top half of the stage. So I said, hey, why don't I stand over to the side? You know, I've been in this theater and, you know, it's very big and there's a side wall, and what if I hang out over there? So I'm over there and, you know, just a few minutes into the show, like, an usher comes over and is like, are you in the performance? And I was like, oh, my gosh, no. What do I need to do? And, you know, I realized that everyone could see me with my little notebook. So the usher asked me, you know, can we move you to the back? And I was like, you know, that's absolutely fine. I was instead, all the way in the back and sort of looking out over everyone's head. And it really changed my experience. If a show is supposed to be funny and the audience is like crickets, you know, you can really see that when you're in the back. I think that's, you know, probably why directors, like, pace around back there and to get some perspective on the show. But you can also, you know, the opposite is true. Like, if the show is really funny or very affecting, like, you can sort of feel that when you're looking over the audience from behind. There's a musical, for example, on Broadway of the film Death Becomes Her. It's a big, campy, colorful show. Really big, last campy comedy. And that plays all the way to the back. You know, I could see people in the very last rows, like, you know, shaking in their seats with laughter. And that is sort of it was pitched to the right frequency and that that was something that I was in a unique position to realize. Another thing I realized standing in the back was that it's where people who are most enthusiastic about being in the theater generally stand. You know, whether that's the director and this is their baby or people who just want to get in the theater, you know, the show is sold out. They're the biggest fans, you know, are willing to stand up. And I felt that energy, you know, even just for myself. I was standing in the back and I was like, I am really excited to be here. Like, I love my job enough that, like, I will figure out how to get in this room and do it. You know, it really gave me renewed sort of love for what I.
Kyle Ryssdal
Naveen Kumar, theater critic for the Washington Post Tell us about your economy. Where'd you sitting, standing. Whatever's your vibe, marketplace.org is where you can do that. This final note on the way out today, I want to set the stage for the January unemployment report that we're going to get tomorrow morning. The unemployment rate, of course, also the number of jobs added or lost last month. The numbers are going to be what the numbers are going to be. But what I want to make sure you're aware of is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is also going to publish what are expected to be pretty sizable revisions to the total number of jobs added or lost over the past year, as well as the size of the American labor force. Cutting to the chase here and trying to get ahead of the mis and disinformation that will surely spread wildly about this tomorrow. These will be totally normal, completely expected and absolutely vital revisions that are made to ensure the accuracy of how we measure the American labor market. John Buckley, John Gordon, Noya Carr, Diantha Parker, Amanda Petra and Stephanie Sikh are the Marketplace editing staff. Amir Bibal is the managing editor and I'm Kyle Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow. Everybody, this is apm. Hey everybody, it's Kai. We've got an exciting offer for you now through Valentine's Day, you can show off your love for Marketplace by grabbing an Investor T shirt when you donate $5 a month. Invest in the nonprofit journalism you love and get a shirt to show off your support. Give now@marketplace.org donate.
Marketplace Podcast Summary: “Trump’s Bid to Take Down the 10-Year Yield”
Hosted by Marketplace | Release Date: February 7, 2025
In this episode, Marketplace host Kyle Ryssdal explores President Trump's administration's unconventional approach to influencing the economy by targeting the 10-year Treasury yield. Instead of focusing solely on Federal Reserve policies, the administration aims to reduce bond yields directly to stimulate economic growth.
“The White House is just going to work on bringing bond yields down,” explains Treasury Secretary Scott Besant (00:57). This strategy is rooted in the belief that lower yields can have a ripple effect across various sectors of the economy.
Brian Railing, Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, emphasizes the significance of the 10-year Treasury yield:
“If the 10-year yield goes lower then mortgage rates are going to go lower. So people are going to be able to better afford homes,” Railing explains (02:08). The yield on this bond influences a wide range of interest rates, including those for credit cards, car loans, and mortgages, directly affecting consumer spending and investment.
The administration’s strategy to lower yields involves two primary avenues:
Energy Dominance and Inflation Control
Besant states, “With the President's policies of energy dominance, deregulation and non-inflationary growth, I think that the 10-year is going to naturally come down,” (02:40). By increasing domestic oil production, the administration aims to reduce energy prices, thereby lowering inflation—a key driver of higher bond yields.
However, skepticism exists among economists. Ken Kutner, Professor of Economics at Williams College, points out the long-term implications:
“You can reduce the oil price, but then once it stabilizes, then inflation is kind of back where it started,” Kutner remarks (03:09).
Deficit Reduction
An alternative strategy involves shrinking the federal deficit. Railing suggests, “If the government isn't as desperate to borrow money, it won't have to offer as high a return on bonds to get people to lend to it,” (03:26). Lower borrowing needs could reduce yields as the demand for bonds decreases.
However, achieving deficit reduction poses significant challenges. Gila Ba, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, expresses doubt:
“I am skeptical that cost cuts will be large enough to make a material difference in the size of the budget deficit,” Ba states (04:05). The administration's plans for substantial tax cuts could undermine efforts to reduce the deficit, making this approach arduous.
Shifting focus, Marketplace highlights the ongoing improvement in worker productivity, which has seen a 1.2% annualized increase in the fourth quarter of the previous year—marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth.
Higher productivity correlates with increased incomes, improved standards of living, and a potential check on inflation. Justin Ho reports from a machine shop in Simi Valley, California, showcasing how training and technology investments are driving productivity gains.
Simi Valley Machine Shop:
Liz Valdez, a student transitioning from waiting tables to a skilled machinist, illustrates the impact of training programs on workforce productivity. Agar Linskop, the class instructor, notes,
“Hiring someone who can hit the ground running improves productivity because it can help a business boost output without sacrificing much time,” (05:37).
Argonaut Manufacturing Services:
Wayne Woodard, CEO, discusses the integration of automated filling lines to minimize human error and increase production efficiency. “Automating it helps take human error out of the equation, which means fewer mistakes and more product,” Woodard explains (06:36). However, this shift may lead to reduced employment opportunities as fewer workers are needed.
Harmony Group Accounting Firm:
Matt Hettrick focuses on enhancing productivity through employee retention and professional development rather than automation. “We find that that's amazing for retention. Because what we're saying to our staff is, hey, you come here. We're going to treat you like professionals,” Hettrick emphasizes (07:58). This approach allows the firm to handle more clients without increasing prices, thereby boosting revenue and enabling higher wages for employees.
The episode also delves into the struggles of small businesses amid economic fluctuations. Mara Herpgersman and Emily Biligis from Ruby Fruit, Los Angeles' first lesbian bar since 2017, share their journey of opening and facing adversity.
Mara states,
“When you lose a week of sales, which we did because of the fires, there was no money coming in. And for us, because we have no reserves, when no money comes in, you don't have any money,” (11:00).
Facing increased operational costs and unforeseen events like fires and economic slowdowns, Ruby Fruit temporarily closed its doors—a testament to the precarious nature of small business sustainability.
The episode concludes with a brief overview of the stock market and bond yields, highlighting Honeywell's plans to spin off divisions and Super Micro Computer's advancements in AI servers. The discussion underscores the interconnectedness of corporate strategies, technological advancements, and broader economic indicators.
Kyle Ryssdal wraps up by preparing listeners for upcoming economic reports, particularly revisions to the unemployment rate and labor force statistics, emphasizing the importance of accurate data in understanding the labor market.
This episode of Marketplace provides a comprehensive examination of the Trump administration's unconventional strategy to influence the 10-year Treasury yield and its broader implications for the economy. Through expert insights, case studies, and real-world examples, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of how policy decisions, productivity advancements, and small business challenges intertwine to shape the economic landscape.
Notable Quotes:
For more insights and detailed analyses, visit Marketplace.org.