Uncertainty is a certainty

Summary

Marketplace: "Uncertainty is a Certainty" – Episode Summary

Date of Release: March 6, 2025
Host: Kai Ryssdal
Podcast: Marketplace
Description: Every weekday, host Kai Ryssdal helps you make sense of the day’s business and economic news — no econ degree or finance background required. “Marketplace” takes you beyond the numbers, bringing you context. Our team of reporters all over the world speak with CEOs, policymakers, and regular people just trying to get by.

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1. Disbanding of Federal Economic Advisory Committees

Timestamp: 00:01 – 03:17

Kai Ryssdal opens the episode by addressing a significant change in the federal economic landscape: the Commerce Department has disbanded two longstanding advisory committees—the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee and the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. These committees have historically played a crucial role in ensuring the accuracy and transparency of government economic data, which is essential for understanding economic trends and informing business and policy decisions.

Kailey Wells reports on the unexpected disbandment, quoting Erica Groschen, a former committee member, who stated, “[This] came out of the blue” (01:18). April Hemmes adds, “Nothing up until I got the email” (01:22), highlighting the sudden nature of the decision.

Former committee chairs David Wilcox and Louise Shaner express concerns over the loss of expert advice and government transparency. Shaner warns, “With less input, the data that the government gathers will get worse over time” (02:38), emphasizing the potential long-term impacts on economic data quality.

Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate and finance, underscores the importance of reliable data: “And if the data are not good, your answers to those questions are also not going to be good” (02:55). The elimination of these committees is seen as a setback for maintaining robust economic statistics.

2. Impact of Tariffs on Farmers and the Economy

Timestamp: 03:17 – 09:39

Ryssdal transitions to the topic of tariffs, focusing on the recent partial reprieve granted by President Trump on tariffs for cars and trucks from Canada and Mexico, albeit only for a month. While this decision benefits major automotive manufacturers like Ford, GM, and Stellantis, it poses challenges for American farmers who still face tariffs from Mexico, Canada, and looming tariffs on Chinese exports.

He interviews April Hemmes, a corn and soybean farmer in Iowa, who shares her apprehensions: “His definition of fun is way different than the farmer's definition because tariffs are not fun” (04:47). Hemmes elaborates on the broader impacts, noting, “We in the ag community are worse off now because the interest rates are higher than they were before and our cost of production's way up” (05:27).

The discussion highlights the struggle farmers face in adapting to new tariffs, with Hemmes expressing doubt about the sustainability of domestic markets: “You don't build those markets domestically overnight... it's not going to happen overnight” (06:11). The potential shutdown of the Soybean Innovation Lab at the University of Illinois exacerbates concerns about governmental support for agricultural markets.

Hemmes remains resilient, asserting her commitment: “This is my 40th year farming... this farm will go through more. But I'll still be here” (08:13), illustrating the determination of farmers amidst economic uncertainties.

3. 10-Year Treasury Yield: Good News and Bad News

Timestamp: 10:00 – 13:15

Ryssdal provides an update on the 10-year Treasury yield, a key economic indicator that influences everything from mortgage rates to business investments. He notes a significant drop of over half a percentage point since mid-January, reaching 4.28% (10:32).

Nicole Survey, an economist with Wells Fargo, explains the immediate positive impact: “Mortgage rates are declining substantially” (10:46). However, Ryssdal cautions that the reasons behind the decline may signal underlying economic weaknesses. Blarina Urucci, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price, adds, “One of the factors driving it lower is this growing uncertainty about the outlook for growth” (11:35).

Susan Wachter further elaborates, “Lower, slower growth expectations mean that the Fed can cut or might be forced to cut interest rates down the road” (12:23). Thus, while lower yields can make borrowing cheaper, they also reflect concerns about economic slowdown and reduced growth prospects.

4. Conflicting Reports in the Services Sector

Timestamp: 14:00 – 17:12

The episode delves into contradictory reports about the services sector, with two prominent surveys presenting differing views. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports growth, while S&P Global depicts a worrying decline.

Daniel Ackerman explains the discrepancy by pointing out differences in survey respondents and timing. Steve Miller of ISM mentions, “It's some healthy, healthy improvement” (15:37), whereas Chris Williamson of S&P Global notes, “It’s now reporting the weakest output growth since November 2023” (15:45).

Gary Schlossberg of Wells Fargo Investment Institute suggests that the ISM survey primarily targets high-level executives, while S&P Global includes shop floor responses, providing a more ground-level perspective. Additionally, the ISM survey allowed responses throughout February, capturing a more optimistic early-month sentiment, whereas S&P Global's survey was conducted late February, amid dropping markets and looming tariffs (16:11).

5. Labor Market Concerns and Rising Unemployment

Timestamp: 17:12 – 19:18

Ryssdal shifts focus to the labor market, anticipating a sobering jobs report on Friday. Recent data shows rising unemployment claims and slowing private sector hiring. Susan Wachter voices skepticism about an optimistic jobs report: “I’m not expecting a rosy jobs report” (17:38).

Michelle Evermore from the National Academy of Social Insurance highlights increasing difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs: “That number has been rising, which indicates it's getting harder for people who get laid off to find jobs” (18:13). This softening is partly attributed to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes aimed at controlling inflation, which have inadvertently dampened job growth (18:18).

The overarching theme is uncertainty within the labor market, exacerbated by fluctuating policies and economic conditions. Nicole Survey remarks, “We don’t exactly know even when policies are implemented, exactly how they're going to be implemented” (18:45), underscoring the challenging environment for both employers and employees.

6. Entrepreneurs Adapting in the Post-Pandemic Economy

Timestamp: 19:37 – 24:16

The podcast explores the entrepreneurial landscape five years post-pandemic, highlighting innovative business models adapting to current economic realities. Justin Ho introduces several entrepreneurs who have pivoted to more sustainable and flexible operations.

• Deepak Di Pachakibo operates a mobile coffee van in Ojai, California, emphasizing work-life balance and lower overhead costs: “I could order just what I need rather than things in bulk” (21:31).

• Jordan Anthony Brown runs The Aperture, a sit-down restaurant in Cincinnati, which has increased prices to cover rising costs while focusing on a fine dining experience to attract disposable-income customers: “Happy employees make for, you know, happy guests” (21:41).

• Sean Steigerwald founded Customer IQ, a software company leveraging AI to streamline business communications, addressing the ongoing demand for efficient virtual interactions.

• Aria Jochen established Makewith Hardware and Learning Center in Portland, Oregon, offering DIY workshops to empower individuals with practical skills amidst economic pressures: “If the business goes well, one day we hope to expand by opening a hardware store” (23:41).

These stories illustrate resilience and adaptation, with entrepreneurs finding niche markets and innovative solutions to thrive despite economic uncertainties.

7. Final Notes: Fed’s Beige Book and Real Estate Developments

Timestamp: 24:16 – End

In closing, Ryssdal references the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, highlighting its focus on tariffs and uncertainty: “Tariffs mentioned 49 times, uncertainty 45 times” (24:39). He also touches on real estate developments, noting the General Services Administration’s decision to remove the J. Edgar Hoover Building, among others, from its non-core property list, signaling potential changes in federal property management.

Ryssdal wraps up by acknowledging the dedicated media production team and signing off, reinforcing Marketplace's commitment to delivering insightful economic analysis.

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Notable Quotes:

• Louise Shaner: “With less input, the data that the government gathers will get worse over time.” (02:38)

• April Hemmes: “We in the ag community are worse off now because the interest rates are higher than they were before and our cost of production's way up.” (05:27)

• Susan Wachter: “If the data are not good, your answers to those questions are also not going to be good.” (02:55)

• April Hemmes: “I have had, this is my 40th year farming. I'm going to be planting my 40th crop and I'm very proud of that.” (08:28)

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This episode of Marketplace delves deeply into the pervasive uncertainty in the current economic climate, examining the ramifications of policy changes, market fluctuations, and the resilient spirit of entrepreneurs navigating these turbulent times. Through expert insights and personal stories, Kai Ryssdal paints a comprehensive picture of an economy in flux, providing listeners with the context needed to understand and adapt to ongoing changes.

Transcript

[Kai Ryssdal]

I say this in the most macroeconomic and analytical way possible. What is happening? From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kyle Ryssdal. It is Wednesday today, the 5th of March. Good as always to have you along, everybody. While there is of course a limit to what government economic data can tell you, the federal statistical apparatus is the go to for information on housing and the job market and inflation and much, much more. Data that helps people understand where the economy is and where it might be going, and data that informs business decisions and helps policymakers make policy. I say all that because the Commerce Department has disbanded two groups that help make sure the government's economic data paints a realistic picture of what is going on. The Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee and the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee have been around for decades. Marketplace Kailey Wells explains what happens now that they're gone.

[Kailey Wells]

Erica Groschen had no idea this was coming.

[Kai Ryssdal]

This came out of the blue.

[April Hemmes]

Nothing up until I got the email.

[Kailey Wells]

Yesterday and she was on one of the committees. The economic advisor at Cornell University was told that the decades old committee was getting disbanded because its purpose had been fulfilled.

[April Hemmes]

You don't fulfill an ongoing mission by.

[Kailey Wells]

Canceling this communication mechanism, that mission to get a bunch of experts at the top of their economic fields to help the government.

[Kai Ryssdal]

When the Bureau of Economic Analysis wants to develop a new methodology or maybe go into a new area where they haven't been before, they can run their ideas by the committee.

[Kailey Wells]

Retired economist and committee member Marshall Reinsdorf says advice was one major benefit. The other was government transparency. The committees opened their doors to the public.

[Kai Ryssdal]

It gives them a chance to reach out and get their message out to a broader community.

[Kailey Wells]

Getting rid of these two committees doesn't save much money, mainly because the members weren't getting paid, says former committee chair David Wilcox with Bloomberg Economics and the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

[Kai Ryssdal]

So we're talking about eight plane tickets twice a year, one night at a non fancy hotel. This was really inexpensive stuff and he.

[Kailey Wells]

Says it was money well spent. Former committee chair Louise Shaner with the Brookings Institution says with less input, the data that the government gathers will get worse over time. And that data is supposed to provide answers on GDP and productivity and jobs and inflation.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Depending on what question you're asking, you're going to go to the data.

[Susan Wachter]

And if the data are not good.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Your answers to those questions are also not going to be good.

[Kailey Wells]

Shaner says disbanding the committees was a mistake. We asked the government for a response, but the Bureau of Economic Analysis didn't provide a comment and the Commerce Department didn't respond to our request. I'm Kailey Wells for Marketplace 1 messes.

[Kai Ryssdal]

With economic data at one's peril. Wall street today. What is happening indeed? As you've likely heard, President Trump has changed his mind on tariffs. Kinda, and only a little bit. Cars and trucks from Canada and Mexico get a reprieve, but only for a month. Traders, though, took the win where they could get it. Details, numbers, y'all know the drill. While the pause in car and truck tariffs is indeed good news for Ford and GM and Stellantis, spare a thought, would you, for the American farmer? Not only are there the rest of those tariffs on Mexico and Canada that went into effect yesterday, China as well, there are tariffs looming next month that the President promised yesterday will affect farmers exports. So we of course thought it was a good time to give April Hemmes a call. She is our corn and soybean farmer in Iowa. Hi, April.

[April Hemmes]

Hello. How are you today?

[Kai Ryssdal]

Well, I'm fine, but it's not about me, it's about you. You've been raining.

[April Hemmes]

Yeah, we got a full blown snowstorm going on here in Iowa. It's great.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Well, rain in la, what can I tell you?

[April Hemmes]

Yeah, there you go.

[Kai Ryssdal]

I want to know what you're thinking about. Gestures wildly here, the news and everything.

[April Hemmes]

Oh, my God, everything. Well, well, like I heard our TV guy say, just as soon as I say this, something's gonna change. And it's so true. I got the social media, whatever that the President sent out to farmers. And you know, it's gonna hurt, but it's gonna be fun. And all I have to say is his definition of fun is way different than the farmer's definition because tariffs are not fun.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Let's talk about that for a minute. First of all, this is not your first rodeo with tariffs from President Trump. Right. It wasn't fun last time. Exactly. Are you more prepared this time somehow?

[April Hemmes]

No. Well, like I say, same song. It's not the second verse, it's a whole chorus this time because he's including Mexico and Canada and the consumers are gonna get hurt. Usually it's the ag people that get hurt, but. But now it's gonna be a lot more of the consumer things, but more prepared. No, actually, we in the ag community are worse off now because the interest rates are higher than they were before and our cost of production's way up. But it's an interesting world we have out there.

[Kai Ryssdal]

It is indeed. And then this. So there was a speech last night. And you know there's gonna be disturbance, but we're okay with that. Although I don't think he probably called you to check if you were okay with that. The other thing he did yesterday, though, on Social was get read, sell only domestically starting April 2nd. And that doesn't seem to me to make a whole bunch of sense.

[April Hemmes]

No, I'm glad you said that. Yes, 60% of our soybeans are exported. 20 to 25% of our corn is exported. So you don't build those markets domestically overnight. We just can't. And you have to build plants and things like that. There's a whole lot that goes into it. So it's not going to happen overnight. And I've heard some farmers interviews with farmers that said, oh, it's okay if these tariffs only last a couple months, but if it's more than that, it's not okay. And I went, pull your head out of the sand, buddy. It's gonna last more than that.

[Kai Ryssdal]

So, yeah, I talked to a guy the other day who used to run. Cause it's about to be shut down. Something called the Soybean Innovation Lab at the University of Illinois. And that, of course, in the middle of that conversation, I got to thinking about you and soybeans and just the work that the government does or has done in building markets for all y'all. And all y'all means, like all American farmers. Right. And that's.

[April Hemmes]

Yeah, you sound like a Southerner now. You kind of scared me there, guy.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Well, I went to school in Atlanta, you know, it was a long time ago.

[April Hemmes]

Oh, there you go.

[Kai Ryssdal]

But that's kind of what's going on here too, Right? The mechanisms by which you all find markets is being dismantled.

[April Hemmes]

Right. I never hardly engage on Twitter, X or whatever.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Smart woman. Smart woman.

[April Hemmes]

But. Well, yeah, but there's these people out there that are smack talking usaid only thinking it's usda. And I've been on two US ID trips.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Yeah.

[April Hemmes]

We talked about Uganda. Yeah. And did great work there. And people don't understand the work and then the products they buy from farmers to feed the world. So it's very disheartening to see all of this going on.

[Kai Ryssdal]

You and I have been talking for a long time, and every now and then, just like today, actually, I ask you why you do it. But this does seem to be a turning point. And I will say this to you only because I've met you and we've been talking for a while.

[April Hemmes]

Drove my combine.

[Kai Ryssdal]

I did drive your combine. You ain't no spring chicken. And I guess I wonder if there's a point at which this could get so bad that you would just say, the heck with it, I'm done, I'm out, I'm going to sell off.

[April Hemmes]

Yeah, no, I have had, this is my 40th year farming. I'm going to be planting my 40th crop and I'm very proud of that, you know, so I have seen the ups and downs and what we're going through now is, what did they call it, a revolution. Elon, The President and Mr. Musk want to be revolutionaries. Well, you know, we'll see. Hopefully this is better for everyone. But it's, I don't know, I think my farm will weather this. I just hope other younger farmers get through this. It's very, it is very scary. But I mean, I had a grandpa who lived to be 101 years old and you think of what, yeah, he started farming with three horses and lived to have an auto steer tractor. So that really is my guiding light. You know, he went through a lot and this farm will go through more. But I'll still be here.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Thanks, April. We'll talk to you soon.

[April Hemmes]

You bet. Take care.

[Kai Ryssdal]

I will in a couple of minutes give you the yield on the ten year treasury note, as I do nearly every day, because the 10 year and the bond market generally can give you a good sense of what's going on in this economy. It's a benchmark that affects everything from how much you'll pay for a mortgage to a car loan to a business investment. Couple of weeks ago we told you Treasury Secretary Scott Besant had said he wants the yield on the 10 year to go down. And as of today it's off more than a half a percentage point since mid January, a pretty steep drop in a pretty short period of time.

[April Hemmes]

Well, this is good news, bad news package.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Susan Wachter is a professor of real estate and finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. The good news is what happens to the overall cost of money, interest rates when the 10 year yield drops.

[Nicole Survey]

Mortgage rates are declining substantially and the.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Reason they are is because the 10.

[Nicole Survey]

Year treasury is declining as well.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Which if you're trying to buy a.

[April Hemmes]

House, I, unlike my family members, have a very high interest rate on my mortgage.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Nicole Survey is an economist with Wells Fargo. For people like her who bought houses in the past couple of years with a plan to refinance or who maybe can't afford to buy in the current environment, rates coming down is a good thing. But the reasons that the rates are coming down really matter.

[April Hemmes]

Do I think that the drivers of the 10 year treasury yield today are what the administration would like to see?

[Kai Ryssdal]

Likely not. The drivers of that decline are where the bad news comes in. Here's Blarina Urucci, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price.

[Susan Wachter]

One of the factors driving it lower is this growing uncertainty about the outlook for growth and this growing sense that a growth scare is emerging in the US Economy.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Tariffs like April Jemez was just talking about a couple of minutes ago, weakening consumer confidence as well, falling retail sales. All of those things could weigh on economic growth growth. Case in point, the Atlanta Fed's estimate of first quarter GDP that I think I mentioned the other day is the lowest it's been since early in the pandemic.

[Susan Wachter]

I think we're likely to get a few months of soft data, both in terms of how the economy is growing but also how the labor market is doing.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Speaking of the labor market jobs report on Friday, not sure I've mentioned that.

[Susan Wachter]

So I think the growth scare narrative is partly driving the 10 year yields. Lower, slower growth expectations mean that the Fed can cut or might be forced to cut interest rates down the road. I think that's definitely part of the story.

[Kai Ryssdal]

So do treasury yields coming down mean cheaper borrowing for households and businesses? Absolutely yes. However, could that also be a sign that the economy is weakening also? And absolutely yes.

[April Hemmes]

Coming up, I could kind of order just what I need rather than things in bulk.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Entrepreneurs getting it done first though, lets us do the numbers. Yeah, the really happy music today. Dow industrials up 485 points on that tariff. News 1 and a 10% 43,006. The NASDAQ added 267 points. 1 1/2% 18,552. The S&P 500 climbed 64 points 1.1%, 58 and 42. Ford Motor Company accelerated 5.8% today. Stellantis increased 9 and 2. 10%. General Motors revved up 7 and 2. 10% in earnings. Out today. Dine Brands Global parent company of Applebee's and ihop, reported slightly lower revenue than the same quarter last year, but still strong. Dine Brands doubled up 3.4% today. Brinker International with its own Chili's chilled 1.5%. Cheesecake Factory dipped just a tad, a tenth of 1%. Bonds fell and thus as promised, the Yield on the 10 year T note 4.28%. You're listening to Marketplace. If you want to be savvy about the economy, the Marketplace newsletter is just what you need. Every Friday you'll get explainers and analysis that make sense of everything from the moving markets to grocery prices. No jargon, no hype, just smart takes delivered to your inbox. Sign up [e-mail] subscribe this is Marketplace. I'm Kai Ryssdal. Painting in very broad strokes here, this economy has two distinct parts to the goods part. Stuff that we make and sell and buy and services, haircuts, your accountant, things like that. We gave you an update on the goods sector the other day, manufacturing specifically. That update was distinctly mixed today. The services sector. Two surveys came out this morning, one from the Institute for Supply Management ism, the other from S and P Global. ISM showed growth. S and P Global, though said services are worryingly weak. That's a quote. One sector, two surveys, two seemingly different outcomes. What gives? You ask. Here's Daniel Ackerman.

[Daniel Ackerman]

Here's what Steve Miller of ISM says about his group's optimistic survey.

[Kai Ryssdal]

It's some healthy, healthy improvement.

[Daniel Ackerman]

And here's what Chris Williamson of SP Global says about his group's pessimistic survey.

[Kai Ryssdal]

It's now reporting the weakest output growth since November 2023.

[Daniel Ackerman]

There are a few things that could be causing this discrepancy, including who's answering the surveys. Gary Schlossberg with Wells Fargo Investment Institute says the ISM survey is mostly of corner office type purchasing and supply executives.

[Kai Ryssdal]

The SP Global number. They also survey people on the shop floor, so it's a little closer to the action.

[Daniel Ackerman]

Then there's the question of when you're surveying these people. The Glass Half Full ISM report allowed companies to respond throughout February. The Glass Half Empty S and P survey only took answers in the second half of the month, when markets were dropping and tariffs were looming.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Especially at times like this, things can look good early in the month and collapse late in the month.

[Daniel Ackerman]

So Schlossberg says once a month, data drops aren't always enough to keep up.

[Kai Ryssdal]

It's for that reason we keep an eye on the high frequency data to corroborate what we're seeing in the monthly.

[Daniel Ackerman]

Numbers data, including weekly reports on retail sales and mortgage applications. There was at least one common thread between the two surveys, which Steve Miller of ISM and Chris Williamson of S and P Global both noted there's a.

[Nicole Survey]

Lot of concern around potential tariff impact.

[Kai Ryssdal]

This tariff impact. What's that going to mean for us.

[Daniel Ackerman]

With those tariffs actually in effect now? Next month's surveys could have answers everyone agrees on. I'm Daniel Ackerman from Marketplace.

[Kai Ryssdal]

It's been mostly lost in the tariff fire hose, but this is a big week for the labor market. The February jobs report comes on Friday. First time claims for unemployment benefits are tomorrow. Remember, they were up a bunch last week. Today, the payroll processing company ADP said private sector hiring slowed to its lowest level since July and that small businesses cut jobs last month. Marketplace's Samantha Fields has more on that this week.

[Susan Wachter]

Elizabeth Pancotti at the Groundwork Collaborative is not excited for Friday jobs day. I'm not expecting a rosy jobs report. Recent federal layoffs aren't even the reason. It's too soon for most of them to show up. But all the data points coming out lately from ADP unemployment claims consumer sentiment surveys.

[Kailey Wells]

They are coming together to tell a similar story, that there is a considerable risk for softening in the labor market.

[Susan Wachter]

Some softening has already been showing up. Michelle Evermore at the National Academy of Social Insurance has been seeing it in one of the indicators. She keeps tabs on continued weekly unemployment claims.

[April Hemmes]

That means people who are unemployed and continue to file claims after they become unemployed.

[Susan Wachter]

That number has been rising, which indicates it's getting harder for people who get laid off to find jobs. This cooling is partly something the Federal Reserve engineered as it raised interest rates to try to bring inflation down and try to steer the economy to a soft landing.

[April Hemmes]

And I think we kind of stuck the landing. But I think that there's been a lot of new uncertainty in the past month or two.

[Susan Wachter]

Almost every economist I've talked to lately has used that word, uncertainty. Guy Berger at the Burning Glass Institute.

[Nicole Survey]

Says that's because uncertainty is disruptive and it's very high.

[Susan Wachter]

Right now, for instance, are tariffs happening or not? Is billions in federal spending frozen or not?

[Nicole Survey]

We don't exactly know even when policies are implemented, exactly how they're going to be implemented.

[Susan Wachter]

And if you're an employer, that's a tough landscape to operate in. Ron Hetrick at Lightcast says for many businesses, it's easier right now to just pause.

[Kai Ryssdal]

If you were a company and you were saying, I'm looking to expand or I'm looking to hire, you would have investors in those companies saying, are you crazy?

[Susan Wachter]

And saying this is not the environment to do that in. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

[Kai Ryssdal]

One of the really interesting side effects of the pandemic we're talking back in 2020, 2021 here, was the number of new businesses that people were starting for more than two years. And this data is from the Census Bureau, what are formerly called business formations were off the charts. A lot of that was people having lost their old jobs or working from home with some extra, shall we say, time on their hands or maybe just thinking about a different life they might want to live. Also, not to be forgotten, all that pandemic relief money floating around out there. You fast forward five years. Most everything else in this economy is back to where it was in the before times, except for those new business applications. Entrepreneurs are still on a tear, and a lot of them are starting businesses that are adapted to post pandemic realities. Marketplace's Justin Ho has more on that.

[Nicole Survey]

Joellen Di Pachakibo is whipping up some drinks inside the coffee van she owns and operates in Ojai, California.

[April Hemmes]

All right, here's the cinnamon oat matcha with honey.

[Nicole Survey]

Deepak Aquibo launched the business less than a year and a half ago after moving here with her wife and newborn from San Francisco, where she still owns a brick and mortar cafe called Pinhole Coffee. Deepakibo says a big reason she decided to run her new business out of a van was to improve her work life balance.

[April Hemmes]

I could pop up whenever I want to and not have to open up every single day and still have time to be with my child.

[Nicole Survey]

Running it out of a van also helps de Pachakibo deal with a post pandemic reality that's weighing on a lot of businesses. High costs. Deepakakibo says she pays her employees about $20 an hour, plus tips. And then there's the cost of milk and coffee beans. She says those pressures affect both of her businesses, but the van's overhead is much lower. It only has one full time employee other than her, and she doesn't need to stockpile as many supplies.

[April Hemmes]

I'm just buying less milk at a time, less disposables, less coffee. I could kind of order just what I need rather than things in bulk.

[Nicole Survey]

Meanwhile in Cincinnati, Jordan Anthony Brown has been running a new business with much higher overhead. It's a sit down restaurant called the Aperture. We're settling into our identity a little bit and definitely more of upscale casual, kind of bordering on fine dining in terms of price point. Anthony Brown says he recently raised his prices from around $65 a person for dinner a year ago to 80 or $90 today. Part of that was to cover the rising costs of food and wages. But he says it also reflected another post pandemic reality. People want a fine dining experience. Many of them are older and they're comfortable paying those prices. You know, we have a lot of kind of Business people come in a lot of private bookings for business dinners that we're starting to see. And a lot of people in the neighborhood are definitely kind of in that 60, 70 range and they just have more disposable income as a result. Anthony Brown says he's happy spending more on overhead. He's buying more expensive ingredients to justify his prices. And he says he's paying competitive wages starting at $21 an hour. The goal is to make sure his 25 or so employees are happy. It's the number one reason why we look to maintain a strong culture, because that trickles down. You know, as the saying goes, happy employees make for, you know, happy guests. Other aspects of the post pandemic economy have inspired entrepreneurs to start businesses.

[Kai Ryssdal]

I've been really inspired by what was.

[Nicole Survey]

Happening in AI and then kind of found this application that I thought there.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Was an opportunity for.

[Nicole Survey]

That's Sean Steigerwald. He started a software company a couple years ago called Customer iq. It uses AI technology to help businesses record and summarize meetings, emails and other forms of communication.

[Kai Ryssdal]

I did ask myself a question like.

[Nicole Survey]

Fast forward 10, 15 years, do we have more online meetings or less? And I thought it was a pretty.

[Kai Ryssdal]

Safe bet that we'd have the same or more.

[Nicole Survey]

Many of the economic challenges people have faced during and since the pandemic prompted Aria Jochen to start their company about a year and a half ago. It's called Makewith Hardware and Learning center in Portland, Oregon, and it teaches people a wide range of do it yourself skills.

[Kailey Wells]

We offer workshops on things like drywall.

[April Hemmes]

Repair, on refinishing furniture, sharpening knives, how to change a tire, how to change your oil.

[Nicole Survey]

The courses cost roughly $50 to $250. Joughin says learning these kinds of skills can be helpful for people who've struggled amid high inflation, economic uncertainty and climate related challenges, especially women, queer and trans folks and people of color.

[April Hemmes]

There are barriers in employment. There are barriers to housing.

[Kailey Wells]

There are so many different kinds of.

[April Hemmes]

Barriers that folks are facing to gaining economic stability.

[Nicole Survey]

Joughin says if the business goes well, one day they hope to expand by opening a hardware store. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.

[Kai Ryssdal]

This final note on the way out today. First of all, a hat tip to a occasional guest on this program, Wendy Edelberg. The Fed's Beige book came out today, 49 pages long, tariffs mentioned 49 times, uncertainty 45 times. Also, just to follow up from yesterday, if perhaps you took your time deciding whether to bid on almost 1.8 million square feet of office space in our nation's capital. Too bad. So sad. The General Services Administration has now taken the J. Edgar Hoover Building, headquarters of the FBI off its non core property list. The Justice Department building and the Department of Agriculture. Many others were on the list as well. All of the now I guess core properties don't know. Our media production team includes Brian Allison, Jake Cherry, Justin Dueler, Drew Jostat, Gary O'Keefe, Charlton Thorpe, Juan Carlos Tirado and Becca Weinman. Jeff Peters is the manager of media production and I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow. Everybody, this is 8pm.