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Amy Scott
Sign up now@odoo.com it's Friday. Just 18 days till. You know what, can we just take a breather? From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Baltimore. I'm Amy Scott in for Kai Rysdal. It is yes, Friday 18th October. Good to have you with us. I know the economy never takes a breather. So we have plenty to talk about in our weekly wrap, which is where we'll start today with Heather Long at the Washington Washington Post and Kate Davidson at Bloomberg. Hi, you two.
Heather Long
Hi, Amy.
Sponsor Voice
Hi.
Amy Scott
All right, Heather, let's start with those better than expected retail sales numbers we got this week showing once again a remarkably resilient consumer. What did you make of that report?
Heather Long
I know, it just feels like another data point that isn't just good but almost borderline hot. Again, looking at that data, I think what really stood out to me is this feels like the year of the mini splurge. And what I mean by that is you saw really good restaurant sales again. You know, people going out to eat every now and then with their family. You saw pretty good numbers for clothing purchases back to school, shopping for the kids or whatnot. And the other one that jumped out to me, and these are all discretionary items, was personal care was up. I have just learned about this Utah hair trend where everyone's getting these long hair extensions. So those are the types of little splurges that people are doing. And that's a really healthy sign for the economy. This treat yourself economy is back, but it's sort of these mini splurges.
Amy Scott
Yet another trend I have somehow missed out on. Kate, how about you? Any surprises or anything stand out to you in this latest report?
Kate Davidson
Yeah, I'm going to continue on the trend that Heather is talking about. And notice that also miscellaneous store retailers were up, which includes florists and pet stores. So again, going along with this idea that I think people are, are splurging, you know, not on huge things like cars and furniture. You know, some of those more durable goods were still were down, the recent report showed. But it's in the other places where people seem to be, you know, remember a few years ago, a couple years ago, we called it revenge spending. It seems like people are still doing it, right? They're still, they're going out and they're, you know, and they're, they're spending on things. And it's just kind of amazing considering where we thought we'd be at at which was was that people would be sort of tapped out.
Amy Scott
So how evenly distributed is this spending, though? I saw the AP had a piece today about how a lot of this is driven by the wealthiest Americans who are more flush with higher incomes. Of course, stock market gains, home equity. Heather, is it evenly shared this, this splurging?
Heather Long
It's a really good point, Amy. As that great AP SP piece showed with some research from Federal Reserve data, Americans who earn $60,000 or less are still strained. And you can see that in the bank earnings that happened this week as well, that a lot of middle income consumers and certainly the upper middle income are doing just fine. And that's why the bank earnings part of the reason, they're doing very well. But you're right that folks at the bottom have really had a rough go the last few years with rental prices going up and trying to adjust to this new world of inflation. The one encouraging note, if we could end have a little bit of positivity here is we are really starting to see wage growth way outpace inflation and you know, 4% wage growth in the past year versus 2.4% inflation. If we can see some more months like that, that's really going to start to help people. You just saw that big victory for the dock workers, big ju in their wages, for example. So I hope that continues.
Amy Scott
Yeah. So Kate, let's turn to a part of the economy where, you know, people are still struggling housing. As we've reported, mortgage interest rates have actually been rising and I think many were hoping they would start to fall when the Fed started cutting. What's going on there?
Kate Davidson
Yeah, I do think that some of that is a little bit that the Fed has gotten much better over the years at signaling well in advance where things are headed. So we started to see some relief in rates really in August, kind of ahead of that big September meeting where Fed officials ultimately did cut interest rates by a half percentage point. And since then, so a lot of those expectations were built in. We didn't see a big reaction necessarily right after that. But what's been happening since then is as we've been talking about the economic data, the signs from that the economy are sending is that things are pretty good. There was some concern over the summer and ahead of that Fed meeting that perhaps we were starting to turn a corner. Things were looking a little bit shaky. The jobs report was concerning. It didn't look that great. But what we've seen since then is more evidence on the other side. And so I think there's been a sort of open question. How much is the Fed going to cut for the rest of the year? How much lower are rates going to fall? I think there's a possibility that mortgage rates in particular, you know, maybe there's a little bit of room this year, but maybe they're not going to fall by a huge amount heading into next year. I think it's a little bit unclear how much the Fed is going to feel the need to respond to what's happening in the economy with what seemed like maybe rapid rate decreases. It just might be a little bit more measured and gradual.
Amy Scott
Well, overall, as you've pointed out, the economy is still quite strong and we've seen all this evidence of a soft landing, really. But Heather, you had a piece last week in the Post looking at how, you know, the mood just doesn't correspond. As you say, it's been one of the best economic years in many people's lifetimes. But you wouldn't know it from talking to folks or hearing from, you know, campaign, the campaign trail. Why do you think it's so hard to feel good about this economy?
Heather Long
It's such a great question. The best answer that I have right now is that most people actually want prices to fall. They want deflation. And what we've seen instead is disinflation. We've seen the rate of inflation come down, but we've seen a little bit of prices falling. Obviously, gas prices are down about 40 to 50 cents from where they were a year ago. Apple prices are down. But by and large, you don't actually want to see all the prices in the economy going down. That's usually a sign of a recession. But if you're still really frustrated about these high prices, it's hard to understand that what you really need is for your wages to keep growing a lot.
Amy Scott
Well, and you think we'll see more of that as the year goes on?
Heather Long
I hope so. We've seen a year and a half now of wages outpacing inflation. And so I don't know, Amy, it's always difficult to make predictions, but I would say whoever wins the presidency next month is going to be really lucky because if this trend continues and next six months to a year from now, I think people are really more and more people are going to feel this and tangibly see that they are net better off.
Amy Scott
All right. Heather Long is at the Washington Post. Kate Davidson came to us from Bloomberg. Thank you both so much, and have a great weekend.
Heather Long
You too, Amy.
Danielle Hale
Thanks, Amy.
Amy Scott
Wall street ended the week on a high note. We'll have the details when we do. The numbers coming back to housing, depending who you ask for short now anywhere from one and a half million to more than 4 million homes. To be precise, that's housing units for sale or rent. And the latest residential construction numbers from the Census Bureau show that the pace of home building has been mixed. While a lot more new homes were finished in September than a year ago, those just getting started and permits for future construction both fell. But as Marketplace's Sabri Benishore reports, the type of home we're talking about makes a difference.
Sponsor Voice
Home builders are not feeling particularly thrilled about starting on new apartment buildings these days. Groundbreaking on buildings with five units or more was down almost 16% in September from the year before. Permits were down more than 17%.
Kate Davidson
The reason I think we're not seeing as much enthusiasm among multifamily developers is.
Jackie Benson
That we still have a significant amount of multifamily construction in the pipeline.
Sponsor Voice
Danielle Hale is chief economist@realtor.com and homebuilders don't want to build a ton more apartment buildings because they are already building them and they are kind of over it.
Jackie Benson
In fact, if you look at the number of multifamily units that's being completed, in the most recent data, it was up almost 42% compared to a year ago, 42%.
Sponsor Voice
So with all that new building hail says rental vacancy rates are kind of in the normal range of 6 to 7%. There's not a huge incentive to keep on building like that. But also it is hard right now to pay to build a big new apartment building. Jackie Benson is an economist with Wells Fargo.
Jackie Benson
Banks have reduced credit access for multifamily developers and fairly large margins. So multifamily developers are having a hard time finding financing.
Sponsor Voice
Banks, she says, see the word commercial real estate and it's just a no for them.
Jackie Benson
It's just higher risk.
Sponsor Voice
But over in the world of single family homes, things are different. Builders broke ground on more of them in September than they did a year ago, about 5.5% more, partly because they're just easier to do than apartments and cheaper and faster single family homes can.
Kate Davidson
Be delivered on a smaller scale. You can kind of roll units out by the individual units or by the dozens.
Sponsor Voice
Paul Habibi is founder of Gray's Lake Advisors, a real estate expert services firm.
Kate Davidson
When you have a volatile interest rate environment like we've had, builders might prefer this shorter timeline that allows them to get quicker returns.
Sponsor Voice
Wells Fargo predicts that as interest rates and mortgages come down, we should see construction of both single family homes and apartments bump up in the next year or two. In New York, I'm Sabri Benishour for Marketplace.
Amy Scott
The rebuilding is just beginning in western North Carolina after the devastation brought by Hurricane Helene. That part of the state is home to more than 9,000 farms, and the agriculture industry is expecting losses in the billions of dollars. As the waters recede and the power returns, farmers are beginning to pick up the pieces. Marketplace's Alice Wilder went to talk to some of them.
Jackie Benson
For the past week, every day has held a little victory at Hickory Nut Gap Farms. There was the day team members got power back at their homes.
Virginia Hamilton
I turned on so many lights.
Amy Scott
I know, right? Yeah.
Virginia Hamilton
Turning on lights.
Heather Long
Boom.
Jackie Benson
And the day operations manager, Virginia Hamilton, discovered that the farm's piglets made it through the hurricane.
Virginia Hamilton
I was so worried about them in the storm because those pigs were like a day and a half old.
Jackie Benson
We're beside a makeshift pig pen put up after Helene blew away the farm's fencing. That's a couple of Idaho pasture pigs named Noodle and Waffle. They're the piglets moms. It turns out they knew exactly what to do in the storm.
Virginia Hamilton
They really just kind of like kept their babies inside and everyone lived, which is awesome.
Jackie Benson
Hickory Nut Gap Farm is in Fairview, North Carolina, a high elevation floodplain in the Blue Ridge Mountains. They raise pigs, cattle and poultry, but it's also a popular spot in the fall for apple cider and barn dances.
Virginia Hamilton
It hitting at harvest time is like an extra punch in the gut.
Jackie Benson
Autumn is the peak tourist season for western North Carolina. Visitors flock to see the changing leaves, check out Asheville's food scene, and visit picturesque farms. The Hickory Nutgat farm store and butchery looks like a barn. And it's one of the things that makes this an agritourism destination.
Virginia Hamilton
That can be like more than half of our revenue squeezed into the last quarter of the year. So two weeks of revenue loss there is pretty massive for us.
Jackie Benson
For people in Fairview and the surrounding small towns, the store is a place where you can drop in, grab some groceries and catch up with neighbors. But it's been sitting closed since the storm. Hamilton told me the store usually brings in about a million dollars a year in revenue. And with Asheville's restaurants closed, which were a big source of business for the farm. They're banking on neighbors coming to the store, but Hamilton isn't sure how many will show up when the store reopens the next day.
Virginia Hamilton
I really don't know what people are going to want to buy.
Jackie Benson
We're talking next to the store's empty fridges, which are running for the first time in two weeks. Many residents here still don't have power or running water.
Virginia Hamilton
Are people going to be cooking? Are they going to want to do dishes like I was doing dishes in the creek? It's romantic for a couple days and then you're really ready for paper plates.
Jackie Benson
The next morning, Gerald Malsbury and his wife Catherine arrive at the store 20 minutes before opening, eager to shop. I speak with them while they wait excitedly in the gravel lot outside.
Gerald Malsbury
We drove down here from Black Mountain this morning where we were pretty hard hit by the flood.
Jackie Benson
Black mountain is about 20 miles from the farm, Kathryn Malsbury says. There's just the one grocery store in.
Heather Long
Town, so they're running really, really low on food and nothing fresh. So we came down to get something we could barbecue.
Jackie Benson
What are you planning to grab once you get into the store?
Heather Long
The mind reels. Pork chops, a couple of steaks, some hamburger.
Jackie Benson
Once the doors open, the malls berries gleefully fill their baskets.
Amy Scott
A receipt or anything like that?
Heather Long
Yeah, we're not returning.
Amy Scott
Right on.
Jackie Benson
Appreciate you coming in. For the staff, the energy here shifts from nervous to excited as more customers flow into the store, sharing stories from the storm and stocking up on groceries. It's a good sign for the farm. But for Virginia Hamilton and the team at Hickory Nut Gap Farm, there's plenty of work ahead.
Virginia Hamilton
There's a lot of damage that happened that's not going to be covered by insurance. There's probably some agricultural program out there that I can tap into.
Jackie Benson
But her Internet isn't even back yet, so she can't look into that. Today is about getting the store up and running and tracking down some pigs that have escaped from their makeshift pen. In Fairview, North Carolina, I'm Alice Wilder for Marketplace.
Edward Krachmanikov
Coming up, trailers were part of people's.
Amy Scott
Lives, trailer homes that is. But first, let's do the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 36 points, about a tenth of a percent to finish at 43,275. That's Nasdaq added 115 points, 6 10% to close at 18,489. And the S&P 500 gained 23 points, 4 10% to end at 58 64. For the week, the Dow ascended almost 1%, the Nasdaq increased 8. 10%, and the S&P pocketed almost 9. 10%. CVS Health is warning that its upcoming earnings report is going to fall short of expectations and it reports, replaced its CEO. CVS Health worsened five and a quarter percent. Netflix subscriber growth has been slowing down, but the streaming service reported its most profitable quarter ever and beat analysts expectations. Shares brightened more than 11%. Bonds rose. The yield on the 10 year T note fell to 4.07%. You're listening to Marketplace.
Gerald Malsbury
You turn to Marketplace for up to the minute news for stories that show you the connections between global events and your personal economy. And you're not alone. Marketplace is the most widely consumed business and economic news program in the country. We're proud to make fact based journalism freely accessible, and Marketplace investors make it all possible. Your year end donation today will make a real difference in our nonprofit newsroom and in the lives of millions of Marketplace listeners every single day. So please contribute what you can today@marketplace.org.
Amy Scott
Donate doors take us to summers away or winter adventures and afternoon getaways. Your dedicated Fidelity advisor can help you open those doors by working with you on a comprehensive plan to help you reach your wealth's full potential. Because doors were meant to be opened, visit fidelity.com Wealth Investment Minimum Supply Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC Member NYSE SIPC this is Marketplace. I'm Amy Scott. The upcoming US Election isn't just on the minds of people here. The outcome matters beyond our borders. Case in point, China, one of our most important trading partners. The US And China traded more than half a trillion dollars worth of goods last year, and that could change depending on who ends up being the next U.S. president. Former President Trump has said he'd raise tariffs on Chinese exports, and Vice President Harris could extend the current policy of cooperation in some areas, protectionism in others. So how do people in China view the election? Our China correspondent, Jennifer Pak, visited the visa line outside the US Consulate in Shanghai to find out.
Danielle Hale
It can take months to get a visa appointment at the U.S. consulate. Even with a time slot, hundreds of applicants still wait at least an hour for the interview. Like data scientist Andy Dohm, he's renewing his American work visa and says neither Trump nor Harris is a good choice.
Edward Krachmanikov
But if Trump was elected, that may be worse.
Danielle Hale
Worse, he says, because after Trump was elected president in 2016, he added scrutiny on Chinese students studying in fields that may impinge on American national security. This has continued under the Biden administration.
Heather Long
It's very tough specifically for some major.
Edward Krachmanikov
Like chemistry, biochemistry, biology, artificial intelligence and computer science.
Danielle Hale
Trump is also not good for Chinese exporters, says salesman Huang Tao, who is applying for a business visa. He works for a company that manufactures flooring, and their products are subject to an extra 25% tariff in the US imposed during Trump's first term and kept in place by the Biden administration.
Kate Davidson
Trump has already said he will increase.
Edward Krachmanikov
Tariffs on Chinese exports again.
Danielle Hale
Still, Huang Tao says the US Will remain a key market for his company.
Sponsor Voice
There's still demand for our products, and.
Edward Krachmanikov
Anyway, American consumers bear the cost of the tariffs in the end.
Danielle Hale
Although he doesn't want Trump to win, his colleague Wang Yong does.
Edward Krachmanikov
Because Trump is a businessman and he's all about maximizing benefits.
Danielle Hale
But did China extract a good deal during Trump's first term? Hard to say, says Wang Yong.
Edward Krachmanikov
I just get the feeling from the domestic media that China favors Trump more. He gets more coverage.
Danielle Hale
But most people here aren't paying attention to the US Election. It doesn't matter whether Trump or Harris get elected, says a woman who says she can speak freely in China. Still, like many people worried about official retaliation, she only gave her surname Wang. China's very strong now, by which she means China can handle whoever ends up being the next US President. In Shanghai, I'm Jennifer Paak for Marketplace.
Amy Scott
To tie off that housing thread we've been pulling through the show, we thought we'd bring you one more story on the theme. Over the last couple of months for our series Adventures in Housing, we've been bringing you stories on the history of different home styles. For today's installment, we're taking a look at the American mobile home.
Edward Krachmanikov
My name is Edward Krachmanikov and I'm a public engagement specialist and placemaker here in Washington, D.C. and I have a background in historic preservation. Mobile homes developed out of the trailer that you could attach to your car and take with you, or ever you wanted. And as they grew in size and luxury, they began to be called mobile homes. They were used for many reasons. One was for travel, to see sites that were otherwise quite far away and where the infrastructure for tourism wasn't quite developed yet. Trailers really came into their own during World War II. That was the boom time for them. If you build an ammunitions factory, let's say you also have to provide housing for the people that are building the factory and for the people that are working in the factory. With trailers you can have housing pop up overnight, which means that the factory goes online much quicker. Mobile homes continued to be a part of American culture for a very long time and especially into the 1950s. Many from that generation, many from the baby boomer generation spent their early formative years in trailers. And so we have very strong memories, I think, in culture today. During the run of I Love Lucy, the two stars filmed the long, long trailer.
Amy Scott
It all started when Lucy told me she wanted to spend our honeymoon in.
Sponsor Voice
A home away from home.
Amy Scott
Only $1,800 and that's complete, mind you.
Edward Krachmanikov
And it is this over the top comedy, of course, about newlyweds dragging a trailer with them throughout America and all the shenanigans. And it was a popular movie but also showcased that trailers were part of people's lives. 22 million people live in mobile homes today, and there is a lot of misunderstanding around the word mobile. In mobile homes. The vast majority of them do not move once they are sighted. These places are special for their history and they continue to be special today for offering affordable housing when there are so few affordable housing options remaining. It's really startling to me that there is not a single mobile home or mobile home park in the National Register of Historic Places. And it's really a goal of mine to see the first mobile home or mobile home park be listed in the National Register because I think that will begin to change people's minds about them and open the door to seeing them. And for many people that might be for the very first time.
Amy Scott
Edward Krakmanikoff at the Maryland National Capitol park and Planning Commission in Washington, D.C. do you have a question about housing history or about your home style? We'd love to hear from you@marketplace.org this final note on the way out today, another sign of the continuing demand for stuff in the US Economy. The ports of Los Angeles and Long beach just reported their busiest quarters ever. Together, the two ports bring in roughly a third of all U.S. container imports. Bloomberg reports the complex got a boost from businesses racing to bring in goods before potential tariff increases and those avoiding hurricane and labor disruptions at ports on the east and Gulf coasts. Dock workers at those ports returned to work after a three day strike this month, but a temporary contract extension expires in January. Our theme music was composed by BJ Lederman. Marketplace's executive producer is Nancy Fargoli. Donna Tam is the executive editor. Neil Scarborough is the vice president and general manager. And I'm Amy Scott. Have a great weekend. Hope to see you back here on Monday. This is apm.
Gerald Malsbury
You turn to Marketplace for up to the minute news for stories that show you the connections between global events and your personal economy. And you're not alone. Marketplace is the most widely consumed business and economic news program in the country. We're proud to make fact based journalism freely accessible, and Marketplace investors make it all possible. Your year end donation today will make a real difference in our nonprofit newsroom and in the lives of millions of Marketplace listeners every single day. So please contribute what you can today@marketplace.org donate.
Marketplace Podcast Summary
Episode: Visa-seekers in China Weigh in on the U.S. Election
Release Date: October 18, 2024
Host: Amy Scott (in place of Kai Ryssdal)
Heather Long of The Washington Post and Kate Davidson from Bloomberg discuss the surprising strength in recent retail sales data, highlighting a resilient consumer base.
"It feels like the year of the mini splurge." [01:16] Heather Long
Consumers are engaging in small discretionary expenditures, such as dining out, back-to-school shopping, and personal care items. This trend indicates a healthy economy where people feel comfortable spending on non-essential goods.
"People are still doing revenge spending." [02:15] Kate Davidson
Despite concerns that consumers might be capping their spending after previous large expenditures, Heather and Kate observe continuous, albeit smaller-scale, consumer spending across various retail sectors.
Amy Scott probes whether the robust retail sales are universally experienced across income levels.
"Americans who earn $60,000 or less are still strained." [03:20] Heather Long
Heather notes that while middle and upper-middle-income consumers are thriving, those at the lower end of the income spectrum continue to face financial pressures due to rising living costs.
"Wage growth outpaced inflation at 4% versus 2.4%." [04:26] Heather Long
A positive development is wage growth surpassing inflation, suggesting that continued increases could further alleviate financial strains for many Americans.
The conversation shifts to the housing sector, specifically mortgage interest rates and construction trends.
"Mortgage rates may not fall by a huge amount heading into next year." [04:43] Kate Davidson
Despite expectations of falling rates following Fed cuts, Kate explains that mortgage rates have remained steady due to prior market signaling and strong economic indicators.
Single-Family vs. Multifamily Construction:
"Banks see commercial real estate as higher risk." [09:53] Jackie Benson, Wells Fargo Economist
Multifamily developers face challenges in securing financing, leading to a slowdown in apartment construction.
"Builders prefer shorter timelines for single-family homes." [10:21] Kate Davidson
Single-family home construction has increased by 5.5% year-over-year, as these projects are more manageable and offer quicker returns in a volatile interest rate environment.
Alice Wilder reports on the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina, focusing on the struggles and resilience of local farmers.
"Every day has held a little victory at Hickory Nut Gap Farms." [11:54] Jackie Benson
The farm's recovery includes restoring power and ensuring livestock safety, symbolizing broader community efforts to rebuild.
"Autumn is the peak tourist season... two weeks of revenue loss is pretty massive." [13:05] Virginia Hamilton
The hurricane's timing during harvest season has severely impacted revenue, highlighting the economic vulnerability of agritourism businesses.
A brief overview of the financial markets is provided, noting significant movements and corporate performances.
Stock Indices:
Corporate Earnings:
CVS Health: Shares fell 5.25% due to expected earnings shortfall and CEO replacement.
"CVS Health worsened five and a quarter percent." [16:50]
Netflix: Despite slower subscriber growth, reported its most profitable quarter, boosting shares by over 11%.
"Shares brightened more than 11%." [16:50]
Bonds:
The episode delves into how the upcoming U.S. election is perceived by visa-seekers and business professionals in China.
Visa Processing Challenges:
"It can take months to get a visa appointment at the U.S. consulate." [18:38]
Applicants like data scientist Andy Dohm express dissatisfaction with both candidates, fearing increased scrutiny and tariffs.
Tariffs and Trade:
"Trump has already said he will increase tariffs on Chinese exports again." [19:49] Kate Davidson
Businessman Huang Tao notes the continued impact of a 25% tariff on flooring exports, which burdens American consumers.
Public Sentiment in China:
"Most people here aren't paying attention to the US Election." [20:24]
While some favor Trump for his business acumen, the general sentiment is indifferent, emphasizing China's resilience irrespective of the U.S. political outcome.
Edward Krachmanikov explores the evolution and cultural significance of mobile homes in America.
Historical Development:
Mobile homes originated from trailers used for travel and expanded in size and luxury post-World War II to support rapid industrial housing needs.
Cultural Impact:
"22 million people live in mobile homes today." [23:54]
Mobile homes offer affordable housing amidst a scarcity of such options, yet face misconceptions due to the misinterpretation of their mobility.
Preservation Efforts:
"Mobile homes are not listed in the National Register of Historic Places." [25:02]
Krachmanikov advocates for recognizing mobile homes' historical and cultural importance to shift public perception.
The episode concludes with a report on the bustling activity at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
Record-Breaking Quarter:
"Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach just reported their busiest quarters ever." [25:02]
The surge is attributed to businesses expediting imports ahead of potential tariff hikes and avoiding disruptions elsewhere.
Labor Relations:
"Dock workers returned to work after a three-day strike, but a temporary contract extension expires in January."
Ongoing labor negotiations could impact future port operations and import activities.
This episode of Marketplace provides a comprehensive look at the current economic landscape, highlighting consumer behavior, housing market trends, the impact of natural disasters, financial market movements, international relations regarding the U.S. election, cultural insights into mobile homes, and bustling port activities. Through expert analysis and on-the-ground reporting, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of how these diverse factors interplay within the broader economy.