Sudeep Reddy (4:49)

Sudeep this. This next question comes as the signage for the USAID offices in Washington D.C. is literally, are literally being covered up and the letters taken off the wall. What we have here in addition to that and the tariff, will he or won't he? Yes, he did, but then he got rolled and now he's not for another month. We have chaos as economic strategy. And my question is today aside, right? Major indices down about a percent, which all in all is not great, not, not huge. Why aren't the markets really reacting to this?

Kathryn Rampell (5:26)

We are in early stages of seeing what this is. Obviously a lot of what's going on is outside the law. It, it is alarming when, when Congress has passed laws and they are not being executed, seeing how far that goes. And once that starts hitting parts of the domestic economy, I think the markets will start noticing. But this will take time for, for all the effects to take shape. You don't just start hacking at government and expect that a few thousand jobs here, a few thousand jobs there will start to add up, but you're not going to necessarily notice it in the wider economy for some time, especially with government jobs. There are people who need to be furloughed. There will be long, long tail effects of this. Even if there are retirements and buyouts that could take months to take effect. So all of this will happen at some point something can break and we will see if, if the, the fiddling with the government computer systems and that sort of thing from the so called DOGE people are, are as they step in there. There are a lot of risk factors, but you actually have to see some things happen first.

Sudeep Reddy (6:36)

You know, we've talked before, Sudeep, you and me, just really quickly because I have one more thing I need to get to Catherine about. But you and I have talked about, you know, at some point something's going to break and then it'll. But it was always like a small break. It was like, you know, government shutdown or, you know, maybe, I don't know, a default, but that would never really happen. This does seem to me to be the big they're breaking it thing.

Kathryn Rampell (6:57)

No, it could lead to the thing breaking, but these are always easier to see in the rear view mirror, look back and see what happened that led to this point. But we won't know until it actually happens that oh, that's how it breaks. There are, there are just dozens of safeguards within government to make sure that doesn't happen. But if you break down the dozens and bring it down to one or two, then eventually something will happen.

Sudeep Reddy (7:24)

Katherine, you have one minute for this answer and I apologize for that in advance. There is, as Sudeep said a second ago, lawlessness abroad. Out there there is extra constitutionality if not unconstitutionality. There is a fire hose of things that could really damage this economy that are happening and that we are having to report on. We talked about whether or not I was going to ask this in the morning meeting this morning that we had. How are you staying focused?

Judy Brady (7:50)

You specifically, how am I staying focused? You look, you're a focus.

Sudeep Reddy (7:55)

Well, yeah, I mean, join the club. But you know, people respect your opinion.

Judy Brady (8:00)

I feel like I am just trying to get a hold of the fire hose of information and I definitely feel committed to the mission of, you know, as a journalist holding power to account. So that's definitely motivating. But it is really challenging to grasp everything that's going on. Like I'm trying to track the data deletions, I'm trying to track what's going on at treasury and messing with the payment system. I'm trying to check what's going on with immigration and how that affects and the effects for both humanitarian reasons and economic reasons. And that's just a small subset of what I'm following. And plenty of other journalists have an even larger portfolio. So there's a lot to to try to keep track of and it's frankly challenging.

Sudeep Reddy (8:45)

Pace yourselves, people, pace yourselves. Katherine Rampel at the Washington Post Deep ready at Politico on this Friday. Thanks you two.

Kathryn Rampell (8:51)

Thanks guy.

Sudeep Reddy (8:52)

Wall street, as I said, it is a Friday. Thankfully it was fine. You know, a little down details, numbers. You know, the Dr. That jobs report we got this morning is about more than just jobs, of course. Lots of data in there, including a category called average hourly earnings, which is to say wages. They were up in January more than people had been guessing they would be half a percent month to month, 4.1% year over year. You might remember back in 2021, 2022, wages were really climbing, growing nearly 6% a year at one point as companies scrambled for workers in the pandemic recovery. Well, what then might the wages of January be bringing? Here's Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman.

Kai Ryssdal (9:52)

First thing to know this could be a one month blip, an effect of wildfires in California and bad winter weather across the country, says economist Bill Adams at Comerica Bank.

Judy Brady (10:03)

When a natural disaster hits, you often.

Kai Ryssdal (10:05)

See wage growth pick up because salary workers are still getting paid on a snow day.

Judy Brady (10:10)

Hourly workers typically don't.

Kai Ryssdal (10:12)

Meanwhile, longer term forces are pushing employers to keep giving workers hefty raises even though the labor market's cooling. With fewer job openings and fewer workers quitting to get higher pay in a new job, says Andrew Flowers at recruitment technology firm Appcast.

Kathryn Rampell (10:29)

Employers are hiring less, but they're also firing less.

Sudeep Reddy (10:33)

They don't want to lay off workers.

Kathryn Rampell (10:34)

Because they remember the scars of 2021 and 2022, when talent was so hard to find. They're giving in to some of these.

Kai Ryssdal (10:42)

Wage demands that compared to pre Covid times look high, hot wage growth has spooked the Fed in the recent past with fears it could generate more inflation. But it shouldn't this time around, says Flowers.

Kathryn Rampell (10:54)

This level of wage growth can be.

Sudeep Reddy (10:56)

Sustained because workers are producing more per hour.

Kai Ryssdal (11:00)

Right now, we're enjoying a healthy balance of wage and price growth, says Comerica Bank's Bill Adams.

Judy Brady (11:06)

Wage growth outpacing inflation's a good type of economy to have.

Kai Ryssdal (11:10)

At last check, consumer prices were up 2.9% year over year. Wages 4.1%, and consumers sort of get that, says Joanne Hsu at the University of Michigan surveys.

Judy Brady (11:22)

They actually are showing a slight uptick in their income expectations.

Kai Ryssdal (11:27)

Still, consumer sentiment has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year, driven in part by fears of tariffs causing more inflation. As for rising wages, Hsu says consumers.

Judy Brady (11:39)

Don'T necessarily see this passing through to their personal finances because they are expecting any income gains they see to be.

Kai Ryssdal (11:44)

Really eroded away by a resurgence of inflation in the year ahead. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

Sudeep Reddy (12:03)

As we tune in by the tens and tens of millions to the super bowl this weekend, consider this There is more on the line than just that shiny silver trophy. According to the American Gaming Association, Americans are expected to spend $1.3 billion gambling on the big game. I myself will not be among them. I lose bets all the time. But for those who are in the mood, parlay bets have apparently become a thing. Catherine Sayre at the Wall Street Journal wrote the other day about parlays, why they are so popular and what they mean for gambling companies. Katherine, welcome to the program. Good to have you on.

Catherine Sayre (12:38)

Thanks for having me.

Sudeep Reddy (12:39)

As I said up in the introduction, I'm a horrible gambler and I imagine many in the audience are as well, and maybe they're not gamblers at all. What is a parlay bet?

Catherine Sayre (12:51)

So, yeah, Americans have really taken to this kind of sports betting that, as it turns out, is really profitable for gambling companies. A parlay is where you bet on multiple things happening. Often it's multiple things happening within one game. So you might predict how the quarterback, a tight end and running back are going to perform. All three of those things have to come true in order to win. But the odds are much longer than, say, picking the winner of the super bowl this weekend.

Sudeep Reddy (13:19)

And. And is the payoff greater since the odds are longer?

Catherine Sayre (13:21)

Right, Exactly. So that's what makes it so alluring to betters. The payout is much higher.

Sudeep Reddy (13:27)

It also, though, as you talk about in this piece, has it's not like a socialization of it, but it has made gambling overall kind of more popular.

Catherine Sayre (13:36)

It really has. Parlays have tapped into sports fandom in a way that more traditional bets just haven't. You know, we're talking about our favorite players, how they're going to perform, the narratives on and off the field. And so when you can turn that into a bet, it's just a very fun experience.

Sudeep Reddy (13:56)

You know, it is. Actually, it reminds me of fantasy leagues. Right. That's kind of the analog here.

Catherine Sayre (14:02)

Absolutely. You're right. It's an evolution from fantasy that, that, that focus on players and their data.

Sudeep Reddy (14:08)

Sportsbooks are making hay out of this. It's obviously more profitable if more people are betting, right?

Catherine Sayre (14:14)

Absolutely. So when you think about a sportsbook offering a traditional bet on who's going to win the game, the company might take 5 to 7% of total bets wagered with these parlays, they could take 20%, 30% or more.

Sudeep Reddy (14:30)

We should point out here that gambling is not for everybody and in fact, for a lot of people it's a big problem. I assume the gaming world knows this.

Catherine Sayre (14:37)

Absolutely. Sports betting companies all have certain requirements by regulations and they will tell you they have so called responsible gaming policies in place. Yeah.

Sudeep Reddy (14:49)

In the course of reporting this story, did you make some parlays yourself?

Catherine Sayre (14:53)

Yeah, we did at the Wall street journal. We placed $209, $1 same game parlay bets.

Sudeep Reddy (15:00)

Okay, wait, first of all, whose money? Journals money or your money?

Catherine Sayre (15:04)

The Journal's money.

Sudeep Reddy (15:05)

Okay, all right. Okay, all right, continue.

Catherine Sayre (15:08)

We didn't do so well. We won only eight of those bets. So the gambling companies took almost $114 from us.

Sudeep Reddy (15:19)

Man, money in the bank. Did it make you want to keep on going though?

Catherine Sayre (15:24)

It did pique my curiosity to see if we kept going, could we win. I felt that urge inside of me. But we set our limit.

Sudeep Reddy (15:32)

Yeah, fair enough. It's not like it's all nickel and dimes, but as you point out in this piece, some huge number of same game parlays, that is to say, these bets inside the same game are like 30 bucks or less. I mean, not quite the dollar that you spent. But you know, people are not waging huge amounts of money here.

Catherine Sayre (15:51)

Exactly. They've come to be seen as a new sort of lottery ticket. The odds are long. You're going to put a few bucks down and it's just a lot of fun. Now there are skeptics out there who call same game parlays a sucker bet. But the betters I've talked to for the most part, they kind of understand the odds are wrong and they're willing to do it anyway.

Sudeep Reddy (16:11)

Yeah. You got any money on the game on Sunday or.

Catherine Sayre (16:13)

No, I don't. I'll just be watching as a reporter.

Sudeep Reddy (16:17)

Same, same, same, same. Catherine Sayer at the Wall Street Journal. Parlay gambling. Thanks, Katherine.

Christine Herron (16:39)

Coming up, we're just us, we are not venture capitalists. We've put everything that we have into.

Sudeep Reddy (16:45)

This sports as a small business. But first, let's do the numbers. Now, industrials down 444 points today 1% 44,303 the NASDAQ subtracted 268 points, about 111 3rd%. 19,000 52 3s and P 500 down 57, just shy of 1%. 6,025 for the week, the Dow fell a half percent, as did the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 declined about a quarter percent fall of this year. That's when Take Two Interactive reported it's going to be releasing Grand Theft Auto 6. The video game producer also beat analysts earnings estimates. Shares rang up 14% today. Frontier Group holdings, that's Frontier. Frontier Airlines to you and me, expects to break even in the first quarter and turn profitable later in the year. Frontier soared almost 15 and a half percent today. Bonds failed yield on the 10 year t note rose to 4.49%. You're listening to Marketplace. I was doing so well. If you want to be savvy about the economy, the Marketplace newsletter is just what you need. Every Friday, you'll get explainers and analysis that makes sense of everything from the moving markets to grocery prices. No jargon, no hype, just smart takes delivered to your inbox. Sign up today@Marketplace.org subscribe this is Marketplace. I'm Kai Ryssdal. Consumers get a whole lot of airtime on this program because what happens in this economy depends in very large measure on what consumers do. And increasingly, the wealth gap in the United States is affecting what consumers do, how they shop and what they buy, which in turn is changing what retail looks like. The industry term is bifurcation, the split in stores and brands as they cater to two different kinds of consumers, the budget conscious on the one hand, the luxury focused on the other. And as Marketplaces, Kristen Schwab reports that plays out in how you shop for everything from pasta sauce to appliances.

Kristen Schwab (18:55)

Claire Tassen's got a thing for old rugs. I'm really into home decor. That's my passion project. The reason she sways vintage is because it's tricky to find quality new rugs at a reasonable price. They're one of those things that costs something like $1,000 or 100 when you get up close to a rug and you can see that it's like screen printed and it's not actually woven with the pattern that you want. That to me is just I don't want that. Lately, Tassin, who's a retail analyst at Morning Consult, has been seeing this high, low split happen in more categories, from sweaters to couches. It's easy to find fast fashion and fiberboard furniture. It's also easy to find cashmere scarves and hand carved teak dining sets. Meanwhile, in the middle is kind of falling out. The middle falling out has a lot to do with the middle class falling out. In 2023, just over half of Americans were middle class, compared to more than 60% in the 1970s, according to the Pew Research Center. It means American consumers are financially farther apart than ever before. And with that, famously middling stores like JCPenney and Macy's have nearly disappeared. But Dean Brindle, head of product management for home solutions at lg, says something else is happening. American consumers are changing.

Sudeep Reddy (20:17)

It's not always the high income households.

Kai Ryssdal (20:19)

Or high net worth households that are.

Christine Herron (20:20)

Purchasing the premium appliances.

Kristen Schwab (20:22)

Brindle says consumers of all kinds are skewing toward luxury and a lot of that has to do with aspiration. Aspiration that starts on social media and spills over into certain parts of our homes.

Sudeep Reddy (20:34)

When you have guests over, friends, family, et cetera, they're not typically looking at your laundry appliances in the kitchen.

Christine Herron (20:40)

You know, where people, you know want.

Sudeep Reddy (20:41)

To show off a little bit. Maybe those home chefs typically will, will lean in a bit.

Kristen Schwab (20:47)

So LG has been developing more premium appliances. Some refrigerators run up to $9,000 and have fancy features like ice makers that make multiple styles of ice and temperature controlled drawers for storing kimchi. The trend toward high end is playing out in the market for phones too. Drew Blackert is a vice president at Samsung America.

Kathryn Rampell (21:08)

Consumers, generally speaking, are skewing premium.

Sudeep Reddy (21:12)

Historically, that was not the case. You used to see that consumers maybe would opt towards the entry model and decide if they wanted to plus up.

Kathryn Rampell (21:18)

So it's kind of gradually changed over time.

Kristen Schwab (21:21)

Of course, there will always be a market for entry level everything. The profit margins for those products aren't as big, but the sales volume is usually bigger. And it's why. Ed Johnson, who leads retail and consumer products at Deloitte, says the highbrow low brow split is happening everywhere in retail, even at the grocery store.

Sudeep Reddy (21:40)

You can even think about, you know, a category as mundane as ground beef, right? You have different grades, you have organic, you have grass fed, you have the, and you have the fat content and so on. That matrix, based on what you're looking for, you can pay anywhere from $2.99 a pound to 9.99 a pound.

Kristen Schwab (22:00)

And Johnson says increasingly, the brands making all of these competing products are owned by the same companies. Campbell's makes Prego pasta Sauce and Rao's L'Oreal Group owns its namesake drugstore brand and Lancome Hormel Foods makes Spam and Applegate organic meats.

Sudeep Reddy (22:17)

And it's done intentionally, it's done to create these sub brands again that maybe appeal, you know, to a different audience or maybe that have slightly different formulation but ultimately can reside on shelf at.

Kristen Schwab (22:31)

Different price points, which leaves you, the consumer, with fewer options. If you're looking for something not too fancy, not too basic, but just middle of the road. I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.

Sudeep Reddy (22:47)

Speaking of you, the consumer as well are we're launching a new series about how you fit into this economy and how you feel about it. Share your story with us, would you? You can do that@marketplace.org consumer opening up a brick and mortar business is not easy. One of the big hurdles is finding the right brick and mortar space. You've got to think foot traffic, parking, availability, rent too. And everything just gets more complicated when your particular business needs a really particular kind of space for a very specific kind of use. Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy.

Christine Herron (23:40)

My name is Christine Herron. I am a co founder and the CFO of Achieve Sports. We offer everything from gymnastics to turf sports and court sports. In Aurora, Colorado, I run Achieve Gymnastics and Achieve Sports center with my husband Allen. Neither one of us had been our own business owners, entrepreneurs prior to this. So not only were we jumping, stepping into, hey, we're gonna do something new and run our own business, but also, hey, we're going to own some big time real estate. And so both of those things combined, you know, certainly added an element of risk and a little bit of a fear. But very soon after opening our first location, we were at capacity with a very large wait list. You know, having to turn a kid away is heartbreaking. And so we went ahead and started the process of searching for a larger and more expensive expansive kind of operation. It probably took us close to five years to find this expansion location. We took over an old grocery store building and completely reimagined it and remodeled it. It's very expensive. I mean, real estate, especially in Colorado, within the last several years has been pretty extreme. So that was definitely a challenge. And then just the costs to remodel it. It was a very, very big step for us. Probably the two biggest challenges for us are cash flow and capital management. Growth, as they say, eats cash. And Alan and I are, we're just us. We are not venture capitalists. We've put everything that we have into this but this week marked two years that we've been open at the new location. And we're hoping that year three is our breakout year and that we can actually start to see a turning of a profit.

Sudeep Reddy (25:56)

Running a small business takes guts. Christine Heron, the co founder of Achieve Sports in Aurora, Colorado, we cannot do this series without you. So let us know what's going on, would you? Marketplace.org myeconomy this final note on the way out today, an inflation data point that is not all that encouraging. We have talked, I think, about how what consumers think is going to happen with inflation can actually make it happen. So consider this. The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment came out today. We're a tad grouchier than we've been of late, about which fine moods change. But get this, consumer inflation expectations, where we think inflation is going to be in the year to come, jumped from 3.3% to, to 4.3%. That is, first of all, not great. And second of all, it's the highest that number's been in almost a year and a half. Our theme music was composed by BJ Lederman. Marketplace's executive producer is Nancy Fargoli. Donna Tam is the executive editor. Neil Scarborough is the vice president and general manager. And I'm Kai Rysdal. Have yourselves a great weekend, everybody. We will see you back here on Monday. All right. Foreign this is APM.

Catherine Sayre (27:30)

Consumer confidence had its sharpest monthly decline since 2021, which means we're all in our feels about money. And while uncertainty is the only constant these days, it's also a great reason to get serious about understanding personal finance. I'm Janeli Espinal, host of Financially Inclined, a podcast from Marketplace that makes learning about money simple. Learn about practical skills like negotiating job offers, dealing with money and friendship and love, entrepreneurship and student loans. Get serious about your money and build a life you've always dreamed of. Listen to Financially Inclined wherever you get your podcasts.