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Kai Ryssdal
Well, that was a week, huh? From American Public Media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kyle Rysdal. It is Friday today. This one is 28th February. It is good, as always, to have you along. Everybody, in no particular order, as we get going today, trade and tariffs, a little inflation and maybe some interest rates. And because we can't. Not the politics of this economy. Katherine Rampel is at the Washington Post. Ana Swanson is at the New York Times. Hey, you two.
Katherine Rampell
Hey, Kai. Hey, Kai.
Kai Ryssdal
Ana Swanson, we begin with you, and I offer my condolences. As the person at the Times who has to cover trade and trade policy in this economy right now, I'm not gonna ask you where things stand. I'm not gonna ask you what's going on. I'm gonna talk to you, or want you, me rather, about a great piece in the paper today that you and your colleagues had about how tariffs may not actually be able to do everything that Donald Trump wants them to do. Everything everywhere, all at once, you know.
Ana Swanson
Thank you. Yeah, definitely. So it's been sort of an unending parade of tariff threats, right? And the president has talked about a few different rationales for these tariffs. So he's talked about them bringing supply chains back to the United States, using them as a source of leverage against other countries, and then also always raising massive amounts of revenue for the United States. And so my colleagues and I just pointed out that a lot of those goals just directly undermine and contradict each other. So, you know, for example, in raising revenue, if you want to collect revenue, you need people to continue buying imports, which means that they're not switching to buying American goods instead and helping American factories. So, you know, it's. It's a problem for the president's agenda. At some point, he is going to have to pick and choose. And right now, I think, you know, he's able to have all these different kind of interests allied in favor of his tariff threats because he hasn't really had to pick and choose a goal yet.
Kai Ryssdal
Right. And you know, those tariffs, last we heard, and it will change between now and then, almost certainly. They're slated to start on Tuesday the 4th. Anna, let me ask you this, though. When you talk to practitioners in the art of global trade, as opposed to, you know, academics and practicing economists, when you talk to people who are doing it, are they bewildered? Are they resigned? What's the mood?
Ana Swanson
Yeah. No, I think people are a bit bewildered. You know, many people did expect the president to double down on his tariff threats and go bigger than he did the first term. But you know, I think it's really important to note that the scale of what the president is doing with these tariffs and with these trade measures is really so much bigger than what he did before in a way that is really astonishing even to the trade community. So if all these tariffs would go into effect, it would be the most tariffs since Moot Hawley in the Great Depression. You know, even the China tariffs that he's considering on Tuesday, he's considering adding 10% to all imports coming from China on top of another 10% that he did a month ago. That's already roughly equivalent to all the tariffs that he did during the entire US China trade war in his first term, which took over a year to unfold. So it's really notable what is going on here in trade.
Kai Ryssdal
Yeah. Size and speed speaking. Kathryn Rampel, of things he's doing this time bigger than he did last time. The defenestration of the federal government is, number one, still ongoing and number two, hitting now economically critical areas. I want to talk to you about the Internal Revenue Service. You did a lot of really cool reporting on that in the last 18 months, two years, about some of the modernizations that are desperately needed, which are now not happening. This will play out in the larger economy.
Katherine Rampell
Yes, absolutely. Well, first of all, it'll play out in the federal government. This is a way to save money or reduce budgets.
Kai Ryssdal
Saving air quotes there, right?
Katherine Rampell
Yes, yes. This is radio, my air quote, hand gestures, but I'm doing them. I promise. It is completely the wrong way to go about doing it if you are, you know, we like to talk about, or Trump likes to talk about running the government as a business. If you are running a business, you do not shut down your accounts receivable department. Right. The guys who take in the money. And he's essentially doing that. So there's, they're apparently shutting down taxpayer Assistance Centers, laying off people who work at these call centers, who help people who are trying to comply with our absurdly complicated tax code. They're laying off enforcement people. There was a big investment in enforcement and nobody likes to get audited, obviously. But audit rates, particularly of mega corporations and very high income Americans, have plummeted or had plummeted in the years prior to the IRA passing. And that is a huge potential roi. If you invest in enforcing these, that's where the money is. And there's been a bunch of research, you know, looking at for every dollar spent on enforcement, how much comes back. And for very high income people it's something like $6 for every dollar spent. Much more than that, if you consider deterrence effects. That is not only the revenue that's captured after the audit when the IRS finds that you've been non compliant in some way, but also the fact that people pay or people are more compliant basically in the year subsequent. And then, and there's a bunch of other stuff that they're doing that is likely to reduce compliance, not just on enforcement. There was reporting today by a colleague of mine at the Post that the DHS is demanding that the Internal Revenue Service hand over information about undocumented immigrants who are paying their taxes. And historically there has been a very well guarded dividend because we want people, even those who may be working off the books in some respect, we want them to pay their taxes. So they're not going to pay either because why would you do anything to remain on the government's radar? So we're going to lose a lot of money throughout of all of this.
Kai Ryssdal
There are real effects to what's happening. Speaking of real effects, Anna Swanson, can we detour here into what's actually happening in this economy? It is still, for now, strong. PCE came in today two and a half percent which was down just a hair. GDP came in this week. It's growing a little slower, but it's growing. Consumers though, maybe getting a little tired. Some things to watch. Yes.
Ana Swanson
Yeah, no, I agree. So inflation numbers looked a little bit better today, but the problem was that the data showed a pullback in consumer spending and that was somewhat unexpected. So January was a very cold month and that always has a big impact because people are hibernating rather than spending. And there are also wildfires in California, so it could be weather effects, but it does raise a lot of questions about whether these are early signs of a bigger downturn. And certainly there's been some more nervousness recently in consumer confidence surveys about the economy and the effect of tariffs. So the question is really is, you know, is this just a fluke or is this something more serious that we'll see develop?
Kai Ryssdal
Right, Catherine, last question to you. And it comes with a nod to what happened today in the Oval Office between President Zelensky and President Trump. Obviously, the Trump administration has decided to reorient America's place in the world and its reputation in the world. And I guess my question to you as we talk about the politics of this economy, right, is what does that change in reputation mean for the American economy, you think? And the global economy too?
Katherine Rampell
I think the core Question here is will America be a reliable ally when we come to an agreement with other countries, whether it's on security related things as in the Oval Office meeting that you are referring to or trade agreements for that matter, will we stick to our word? And I think we've proven time and time again with this administration that that is not a reliable assumption. You know, he Trump negotiated, for example, the current agreement with Canada and Mexico regarding trade, you know, the usmca, the so called new nafta, and he's already ripping that up with tariffs as we've discussed, expected next week. So what does that mean? It means that we are not a reliable place to invest in per se, to have supply chains linked into. I think it's quite likely that we will see kind of a cleavage in the world into countries that do business with China and countries that do business with us as well. That may have already been in the works. But we are driving more potential trading partners into the arms of China. And just this general uncertainty over our commitment to free trade, to anti corruption I think is likely to drag on investment here, investment globally and potentially global growth.
Kai Ryssdal
Kathryn Rampel at the Washington Post and Anna Swanson at the New York Times on a remarkable Friday, to be honest with you. Have a nice weekend, you two.
Kristen Schwab
Thank you.
Kai Ryssdal
Thank you, Wall street today to end the weekend, the month traders took a breather on this Friday. That PCE number I mentioned real quick easing their minds, I suppose, details, numbers when we get there maybe some time yet before we've got anything like a complete count of exactly how many federal workers the Trump administration has fired or put on leave before firing them. And it is for sure going to be a bit before we know what that's going to do to the economy. We'll get the February jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday next. But because of the way that data is collected, it is unlikely to give us a good picture of what has been going on. Marketplace's Kristen Schwab explains.
Martha Gimbel
It's sort of funny that we call the February jobs report the February jobs report because Harry Holzer, a former chief economist at the Department of Labor, says it doesn't really capture all of February.
Harry Holzer
It's a snapshot of the month that.
Kai Ryssdal
Occurs within a specific week.
Martha Gimbel
The Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys workers during the seven days that include the 12th day of the month. It's called the reference week. And February's reference week happened before a lot of these recent federal cuts, which means they won't show up in the data until the March jobs report. Plus, it'll be a while before people who took buyouts show up at all.
Kai Ryssdal
Because they won't be looking for new jobs.
Martha Gimbel
In most cases, they might wait a while to job hunt. Others may have retired. Martha Gimbel, executive director of the budget lab at Yale, says federal layoffs alone won't change the unemployment rate that much.
Kai Ryssdal
I think people have to keep in.
Ana Swanson
Mind how big the United States economy is.
Martha Gimbel
There are more than 2 million federal employees. The total U.S. labor force adds up to 170 million just from a pure economy standpoint.
Ana Swanson
The private sector can absorb those people.
Martha Gimbel
Of course, from a personal standpoint, job loss is difficult, especially for workers who've spent their careers with the government. Big picture Federal cuts will ripple out beyond the federal workforce, says Aaron Sojourner, an economist at the W.E. upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
Matt Levin
Most of the federal spending is not spent on public employees, but spent on.
Kai Ryssdal
Private sector employees through contracts and grants.
Martha Gimbel
Which means it'll be months before we get a clearer picture of the full impact of these government cuts on the labor force. I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.
Kai Ryssdal
The wildfires here in Los Angeles last month were just the latest hurdle in a difficult 4, 5 years for the biggest industry in town. The pandemic and then the writers and actors strike put Hollywood in a bit of a skid with studios and streamers cutting back on local film and television production. And now there are words that the fires will accelerate that decline. There is a stay in LA campaign, big name actors calling on those studios and streamers to keep production here. And yes, us going to the multiplex or pulling up Netflix is a business for those companies, but it's a livelihood for the tens of thousands of Angelenos who work behind the scenes, the gaffers and location scouts and makeup artists you're not going to see at the Oscars on Sunday. And for them, the stakes are high. As Marketplace's Matt Levin explains, even if.
Danny Finn
You haven't visited la, you probably know Randy's Donuts.
Harry Holzer
Can I please do two blazed two maple bars.
Danny Finn
It's here at this noisy intersection in Inglewood, just a few small traffic jams away from LAX. You're likely familiar with their plane donut, the 30 foot tall one on the roof.
Harry Holzer
I think it might have been the sequel Iron Man 2, where Tony Stark Robert Downey Jr. Is sitting in his Iron man suit in the middle of that donut up there.
Danny Finn
Danny Finn is an LA location scout for movies and TV shows. He says if they while the script Calls for an authentic LA landmark that's a little less on the nose than the Hollywood sign. Randy's Donuts is a popular go to. It did make that cameo in Iron Man 2. It's in the Ice Cube comedy Friday After Next and a bunch of other stuff. Which is why Finn was taken aback when he saw the 2018 cult classic Den of Thieves.
Harry Holzer
In the opening of Den of Thieves, there is a Heat style armored car robbery.
Kai Ryssdal
Take your foot off the gas, press the unlock button and step out of.
Harry Holzer
The vehicle that I believe is supposed to be right there because it's in front of a walk up style donut shop and there is a little donut on the roof that looks like the size of like a DirecTV satellite dish.
Danny Finn
All of Den of Thieves is set in greater la and most of it was shot in Atlanta, Georgia. Finn didn't think it worked. You could tell it wasn't Randy's.
Harry Holzer
I felt validated as a Los Angeles location manager. I felt like, yeah, you can't do it. Like you really can't replicate LA.
Danny Finn
Major studios are trying though. Film, TV and commercial shooting days in LA have dropped 39% since 2017. Den of Thieves and the Walking Dead and the Avengers movies were filmed in Atlanta because it's cheaper there. Mostly because of a very generous 20% state tax credit. Also cheaper in Georgia, a house. Paul Oddly is the head of the nonprofit group Film LA.
Kai Ryssdal
We did see some migration over the past 10 years of folks from here moving to other production centers.
Danny Finn
He fears the roughly 13,000 homes lost in January's wildfires will only make Los Angeles even less affordable for below the line workers, an industry term for people behind the scenes.
Kai Ryssdal
While most below the line workers are well played middle class, that still isn't enough in many cases here.
Danny Finn
Lighting technician Todd Brown moved to Atlanta from Los Angeles in the summer of 2022. He just wrapped work on the last season of Stranger Things which was filmed in Jackson, Georgia. He was able to buy a 2,400 square foot house for less than a million dollars, which is basically impossible in la. And Atlanta has other professional perks, quite frankly.
Matt Levin
There's just a little less competition.
Kai Ryssdal
And so if you come with skills, you will, it will be seen.
Danny Finn
Brown says the workforce in Atlanta is younger. It's the next generation of behind the scenes talent from all over the country trying to break in where it's easier.
Kai Ryssdal
Like in Los Angeles you'd have guys that are like gaffers and that's because their father was in it or their mother was. You Know what I mean? It's a trade and there's legacy to that.
Danny Finn
The temptation to leave LA is stronger now after those January fires. Jeremy Whelan gave it a passing thought.
Kristen Schwab
So we're coming into my new apartment now. It's a converted garage that we found after the fires.
Danny Finn
Whelan and his partner lost the home they owned in Altadena, where he lived for eight years. They're both drivers for film crews, ferrying equipment to and from sets and studios. In a good year, with steady work, he'll make about 150 grand, although lately it's been less. All the furniture he has right now has been donated from those Hollywood studios, including the 70s looking rug he hopes will be a conversation piece.
Kai Ryssdal
Yeah, it's cool.
Kristen Schwab
It's a fun rug that was on some set somewhere.
Danny Finn
This could be the Three's company.
Kristen Schwab
Yes, absolutely.
Kai Ryssdal
You know, and even if it's not.
Kristen Schwab
I'm going to pretend like it is.
Danny Finn
Waylon says the below the line community here has really helped him recover after the fires. And that very brief flirtation with leaving la, well, that scene has been cut.
Kristen Schwab
The thing about working in Hollywood is that you have generations of really skilled, talented people that are here. So we really want to fight to stay here.
Danny Finn
He hopes the movement to bring more movies and TV back to LA will make that fight easier. I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.
Matt Levin
Coming up, if I microwave this chicken nugget, it was soggy and really sad, but if I throw it in my air fryer, it's delicious.
Kai Ryssdal
A second act for frozen food, believe it or not. First, though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials up 601 today, 1.4%. $43,840. The Nasdaq added 302 points. 1 and 6, 10%, 18,847. The S&P 500, up 92 points. 1.6%, ended things at 59 and 54 for the five days gone by. The Dow up just under 1.1%. The Nasdaq down 3.5%. The S&P 500 slipped 1% today. Bonds went up the yield on the 10 year T note, thus down 4.20%. You're listening to Marketplace.
Kristen Schwab
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Kai Ryssdal
This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Ryssdal, Ana and I mentioned this a little bit earlier that consumer spending slid in January on everything from cars to clothing makes sense right after the holidays. One category went up a whole bunch last month though. 29% according to the Department of Commerce. Utilities, which have been a pain point for low and middle income consumers in particular as marketplaces Elizabeth Troval reports.
Elizabeth Trovall
January spending is often about essentials, says Morning Consult's Denny Cohen Hense. But utilities are subject to the weather.
Matt Levin
And we've had really cold temperatures on the southern United States and East coast.
Elizabeth Trovall
Like snow in Houston. And the cold has a double whammy effect on utilities, especially for natural gas heated homes, says David Tinsley with Bank of America Institute.
Danny Finn
You've got the price of what they're paying for gas rising, but they're also having to burn more gas in order to counter this unseasonably cold weather.
Elizabeth Trovall
His review of electricity, gas and water payments showed a 6% year on year increase in January. But households are feeling the pinch differently. While richer people pay more for utilities, they often have bigger homes. They don't pay a ton more than people who are poorer.
Danny Finn
It's certainly tougher for people at the lower end of the income distribution.
Elizabeth Trovall
That leads some families to make drastic decisions. According to a survey by the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute. Margo Weiss is their executive director.
Kai Ryssdal
A very high percentage of people leave their thermostats or their air conditioning at uncomfortable temperatures or even turn it off completely because of the fear of being.
Elizabeth Trovall
Shut off, she says households have also given up entertainment, medicine, and school supplies to pay their energy bills. I'm Elizabeth Trovall from Marketplace.
Kai Ryssdal
Frozen foods, maybe throw in a frozen pizza or something in the microwave have long been a go to to get something on the table as fast as possible after a busy day, though convenient frozen foods have gotten something of a bad rap. They're not all that healthy and not all that tasty either. But the freezer section has gotten something of a rebrand. Meghan McCarron wrote about it for the Atlantic the other day. Megan, welcome to the program.
Matt Levin
Thanks for having me.
Kai Ryssdal
I am not alone. I'm sure when I say frozen food, ew. But that's changing.
Matt Levin
You say it is changing. And also, you're definitely not alone in that perception. I think I even wrote about how I shared that perception for a long time.
Kai Ryssdal
Yeah.
Matt Levin
I don't know how you grew up eating dinner, Kai, but I grew up eating a lot of frozen meals at times. And, you know, I was never mad about it. There's like that one weirdly good fudgy brownie in kids cuisine that I still think about sometimes. But, yeah, it was, you know, it was a little mid. But yeah, American perceptions are really changing about frozen food. And some of it is that the pandemic led people to take a second look. Some of it is also that I think the options are getting better. And also, there's so much information online now about all these hacks to freeze, you know, food you've cooked yourself that that's become like, if you're a really nerdy, serious home cook, you're also getting into your freezer.
Kai Ryssdal
Right, Right. All right, so let's go through a couple of those. First of all, you point out that really the relationship that we have with our freezers began to change because of the pandemic. And, you know, certainly in my house, we were freezing a whole lot of food.
Matt Levin
Yes. I feel one of the pandemic status accessories was the chest freezer.
Danny Finn
Right, right.
Kai Ryssdal
But there's. There's more to it than just that. Right. Well, known name brand cooks are saying, look, frozen food is now not only just acceptable, but actually good. I'm no fan of Gordon Ramsay, but you quote him in this piece.
Matt Levin
Yeah, we didn't actually speak to Gordon, but there.
Kai Ryssdal
But he has said.
Matt Levin
Yeah, he has said, you know, he was sort of gave a couple quotes to the press over the years saying, you know, frozen food isn't very good. Or, you know, in 2020, he disparaged microwaves as not really imparting any flavor for cooking. And recently he launched his own line of frozen food. This is kind of a familiar move for chefs. Wolfgang Puck has had a frozen line for a really long time. But I think what's really changing is that, you know, you don't just have to microwave frozen food anymore.
Kai Ryssdal
Right.
Matt Levin
The air fryer has made frozen food, you know, a lot crispier and tastier. And so sort of air fryer mania is another thing that has made people say, like, wow, like, if I microwave this chicken nugget, it was soggy and really sad, but if I throw it in my air fryer, it's delicious.
Kai Ryssdal
You've been writing on food and culture for a good long while. Has your relationship with your freezer changed?
Matt Levin
Most definitely. Yeah. I've been covering food for over 10 years, and when I started, I would say I wasn't even freezing stuff I had made fresh. That was just not interesting to me. But around that time, I was, like, a canning hipster for a hot minute. And then I started reading these blogs about, you know, putting up your jam. I know youth.
Kai Ryssdal
Canning's hard, man. That's the beauty of the freezer, right? You pop stuff in the. You wrap it up well. You pop it in the freezer, and you're good to go. Canning is just. That's a whole different thing. Yeah.
Matt Levin
So that was my gateway. I was like, oh, well, I can make this jam and just put it in the freezer. Or I made this stock. I can put it in the freezer. Oh, I made this bread. I can put it in the freezer. And then from there you start saying, like, well, why am I so down on these frozen French fries? Like, sometimes you just want some French fries in the house.
Kai Ryssdal
Totally. Can I just say, I just discovered you could freeze bread, like, two years ago. It's embarrassing, truly.
Matt Levin
But once you figure it out, you're like, I'm a genius.
Kai Ryssdal
That's right. That's right. Megan McCarron writes on food and a bunch of other stuff. This one was in the Atlantic. Megan, thanks a lot. I appreciate your time.
Matt Levin
Thanks so much for having me.
Kai Ryssdal
All right, we gotta go. No time for a final too much talking up at the top of the program. Our theme music was composed by BJ Lederman. Marketplace's executive producer is Nancy Fargali. Donna Tam is the executive editor. Neil Scarborough is the vice president and general manager. I'm Kai Rysdal. Have yourselves a great weekend, everybody. We'll be back on Monday. See you. This is apm. If you want to be savvy about the economy, the Marketplace newsletter is just what you need. Every Friday, you'll get explainers and analysis that make sense of everything from the moving markets to grocery prices. No jargon, no hype, just smart takes delivered to your inbox. Sign up today@Marketplace.org subscribe.
Marketplace Episode Summary: "Will Hollywood’s Behind-the-Scenes Workers Stay?"
Release Date: March 1, 2025
Hosted by Kai Ryssdal, Marketplace's episode titled "Will Hollywood’s Behind-the-Scenes Workers Stay?" delves into the intricate dynamics of Hollywood's production landscape amidst economic pressures, environmental challenges, and shifting industry practices. The episode also touches upon broader economic issues such as trade tariffs, federal government operations, and evolving consumer behaviors. This summary captures the key discussions, insights, and conclusions drawn throughout the episode.
The episode opens with Kai Ryssdal engaging in a dialogue with Ana Swanson from The New York Times and Katherine Rampell from The Washington Post about the current state of U.S. trade policies under the Trump administration.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Ana Swanson [01:13]: "A lot of those goals just directly undermine and contradict each other."
The discussion underscores the complexities faced by policymakers in balancing these conflicting objectives, suggesting that the administration may soon need to prioritize among its tariff-related goals.
Transitioning from trade, Kai shifts the conversation to Katherine Rampell's investigative reporting on the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the broader implications of federal government actions.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Katherine Rampell [04:08]: "There’s been a bunch of research looking at for every dollar spent on enforcement, how much comes back. For very high income people, it's something like six for every dollar spent."
The segment emphasizes the long-term economic repercussions of undermining federal agencies, highlighting potential declines in tax compliance and revenue.
Ana Swanson provides an analysis of recent economic data, focusing on consumer spending and inflation trends.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Ana Swanson [06:54]: "The problem was that the data showed a pullback in consumer spending and that was somewhat unexpected."
The analysis points to cautious optimism tempered by signs of economic strain, questioning whether the current trends signal a temporary fluctuation or the onset of a more significant recession.
The episode further explores the implications of federal workforce reductions, with insights from Katherine Rampell and economist Aaron Sojourner.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Martha Gimbel [11:11]: "Federal layoffs alone won't change the unemployment rate that much."
The discussion underscores that while the direct effect on national unemployment metrics may be limited, the personal and community impacts on affected workers and related sectors warrant attention.
A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to examining the struggles faced by Hollywood’s behind-the-scenes workers amid environmental disasters and industry shifts.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Danny Finn [13:25]: "I felt like, yeah, you can't do it. Like you really can't replicate LA."
Todd Brown [16:06]: "There's just a little less competition. If you come with skills, it will be seen."
Personal anecdotes from workers like lighting technician Todd Brown and film driver Jeremy Whelan illustrate the tangible impacts of these industry shifts. The episode highlights a discernible trend of talent moving away from Los Angeles in search of more sustainable living and working conditions.
Implications:
Although not directly related to Hollywood, the episode transitions to a lighter segment on changing consumer attitudes towards frozen foods, featuring insights from Matt Levin.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Matt Levin [24:08]: "American perceptions are really changing about frozen food."
Levin discusses his personal evolution from viewing frozen meals as subpar to appreciating their newfound versatility and quality, reflecting broader cultural shifts towards convenience without compromising taste.
In wrapping up, Kai Ryssdal reflects on the multifaceted discussions, emphasizing the interconnectedness of economic policies, environmental challenges, and cultural trends. The episode underscores the resilience and adaptability required by industries and individuals alike to thrive amidst ongoing changes.
Final Thoughts:
Marketplace invites listeners to stay informed and engaged with these evolving narratives, recognizing the importance of understanding both macroeconomic trends and individual industry challenges.
This summary is based on the transcript of Marketplace’s episode released on March 1, 2025, and aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the discussions and insights shared by the host and guests.