Working 9 to 5 — and 6 to 11. Maybe weekends too.

Summary

Marketplace Podcast Summary: "Working 9 to 5 — and 6 to 11. Maybe weekends too." Release Date: March 17, 2025
Host: Kai Ryssdal

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1. Economic Overview and Federal Reserve Projections

Host Introduction & Expert Insight
The episode opens with Kai Ryssdal introducing Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens College, Cambridge, to discuss the current state and future trajectory of the American economy.

Reorganization Efforts
El-Erian explains ongoing attempts to reorganize the U.S. economy both domestically and internationally. Domestically, the focus is on government-led efforts to streamline operations and deregulate the private sector. Internationally, efforts aim to establish a fairer trading system, a challenging endeavor fraught with uncertainties.

Increased Recession Risks
At [03:37], El-Erian reveals a significant shift in recession probabilities, stating, “the chances of a recession this year are now 30 ish percent instead of the 10 ish percent they were a couple of weeks ago.” He underscores the precarious situation by comparing economic restructuring to dismantling an airplane engine mid-flight, highlighting the inherent difficulties in maintaining economic stability during such transitions.

Federal Reserve Challenges
Discussing the Federal Reserve’s dilemma, El-Erian points out the emerging "whiff of stagflation," where inflation persists alongside a slowing economy. He notes at [05:26], “if push comes to shove, the Fed will tolerate higher inflation for now in an attempt to protect the real economy,” emphasizing the limited tools the Fed has to combat these multifaceted economic disturbances.

2. Impact of Tariffs on Manufacturing and the Broader Economy

Empire State Manufacturing Index Decline
Justin Ho reports on the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Index, which fell to its lowest level in over a year [09:44]. Indicators showed declining demand, increasing inventories, and rising input and finished goods prices.

Tariffs Causing Friction
Senior economist Tim Quinlan interprets the index decline as evidence that tariffs are already creating economic friction [10:01]. Russell Weaver from Cornell’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations adds that industries like wind and solar energy parts are particularly vulnerable to tariffs, thereby affecting a wide range of manufacturing sectors [10:28].

Supply Chain Uncertainties
The episode highlights increased uncertainty in supply chains, exacerbated by retaliatory threats from Canada regarding energy exports [10:42]. Richard Vogel from Farmingdale State College notes that even the possibility of such tariffs can disrupt business planning and investment.

Economic Indicators and Future Projections
Kathy Bostjancik, chief economist at Nationwide, explains that the Empire State Manufacturing Index serves as an early indicator of national manufacturing trends, signaling an impending slowdown [11:21]. This aligns with El-Erian’s earlier warning about weakening soft data preceding hard economic indicators [07:37].

3. Retail Sector Challenges and Adaptations

February Retail Sales Performance
Kyle Ryssdal discusses February’s retail sales, which rose by a modest 0.2%, falling short of expectations. This sluggish growth reflects broader economic uncertainties affecting consumer spending.

Retailer Perspectives: Unglued, Fargo, North Dakota
Ashley Morkins, owner of Unglued, shares her experience of fluctuating sales. Despite a 7% increase in February compared to the previous year, financial challenges linger from a losing year [12:27]. Morkins expresses concerns about rising supply costs and consumer reluctance to spend amidst tariff-induced economic anxieties.

Retailer Perspectives: Noir Luxe Candle Bar, Seattle
Kalina Bruce, owner of Noir Luxe Candle Bar, provides a contrasting yet optimistic view. Despite typical slow-season challenges, her sales are up by 10% year-over-year. However, inventory shortages force her to manage customer expectations carefully [25:42]. Bruce emphasizes the importance of value creation and innovation, such as developing wellness boxes, to adapt to changing consumer behaviors.

4. The Rise of Side Hustles and Economic Security

Increasing Prevalence of Multiple Jobs
Kyle Ryssdal highlights that while official statistics show 5.4% of U.S. workers holding second jobs [20:16], economist Lonnie Golden suggests the actual figure exceeds 20% [20:26]. This surge is attributed to economic uncertainties and the availability of gig economy platforms like Uber and TaskRabbit.

Personal Stories: Annika Seidman Gaddy
Annika Seidman Gaddy, a therapist and part-time server, shares her experience balancing multiple jobs to manage financial obligations, including rent and debt [19:13]. She reflects on the physical and emotional toll of maintaining dual roles but acknowledges the financial necessity.

Economic Insights
Economist Dean Baker notes that the rise in side hustles may not solely be due to a weakening labor market but also reflects the broader economic insecurity driving individuals to seek additional income streams as backup plans [20:33]. Stephanie Crows, balancing roles in law and real estate, exemplifies how side gigs can provide financial security and potential career transitions [21:30].

5. Energy Policies and Market Implications

Shift Away from Paris Climate Accords
The Trump administration’s move away from the Paris Climate Accords and the promotion of domestic energy sources like natural gas is discussed. Greg Upton from LSU emphasizes the need for energy price stability through diverse sources to mitigate fluctuations [23:17].

Decline of Coal and Rise of Renewables
Annika Seidman Gaddy explains that coal consumption is declining due to competition from cheaper natural gas and the growth of renewable energy sources [24:05]. Morgan Bazilian from the Colorado School of Mines adds that energy companies are likely to maintain emissions mitigation efforts to meet international standards as the U.S. exports more liquefied natural gas (LNG) [24:38].

Market Adaptations
Ashley Morkins notes that coal’s decline is expected to continue under the current administration due to natural gas and renewable energy's cost competitiveness [24:23]. The conversation underscores that while energy mix shifts are ongoing, significant changes within a four-year horizon are unlikely [24:28].

6. Bond Market Trends and Education Sector Financing

Surge in Municipal Bond Sales by Colleges
Kyle Ryssdal reports a notable increase in municipal bond sales by colleges and universities, up over 40% compared to the same period in 2024 [27:21]. This surge, totaling $10 billion, is driven by institutions seeking to secure financing amid potential changes in tax policies and funding uncertainties under the Trump administration.

Strategic Financing Amid Policy Changes
The rise in bond sales indicates education institutions' proactive measures to safeguard their financial stability against anticipated policy shifts. This trend reflects broader economic strategies employed by various sectors to navigate an unstable fiscal environment.

7. Consumer Confidence and Personal Finance

Decline in Consumer Confidence
Janelie Espinal introduces a segment on declining consumer confidence, which has seen its sharpest monthly drop since 2021. This decline underscores widespread economic anxieties and heightened concerns about personal financial stability.

Financial Literacy Emphasis
The episode concludes with a promotion for "Financially Inclined," a Marketplace podcast focused on personal finance education. It aims to equip listeners with practical skills to navigate financial uncertainties, aligning with the episode's themes of economic insecurity and the necessity for financial resilience.

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Notable Quotes

• Mohamed El-Erian ([03:37]): “the chances of a recession this year are now 30 ish percent instead of the 10 ish percent they were a couple of weeks ago.”

• Mohamed El-Erian ([05:26]): “if push comes to shove, the Fed will tolerate higher inflation for now in an attempt to protect the real economy.”

• Ashley Morkins ([12:27]): “I am super curious if that means that people are going to be holding their money more and trying to save it, looking ahead to the future and what will that mean for our retail store?”

• Kathy Bostjancik ([11:21]): “the Empire State Manufacturing Index... gives us an early glimpse of what's happening to manufacturing across the country.”

• Annika Seidman Gaddy ([19:25]): “when that number is smaller than it used to be, then it definitely feels better to know that there's a little bit of extra money coming in.”

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Conclusions and Insights

The episode delves deep into the multifaceted challenges facing the American economy in early 2025. With increasing recession risks, the Federal Reserve grappling with stagflation, and the adverse effects of tariffs on manufacturing, economic stability remains precarious. Retail sectors are adapting through innovation and cautious financial management, while a significant rise in side hustles reflects broader economic insecurities. Energy policies continue to evolve, favoring renewable sources amidst declining coal usage, and educational institutions are proactively securing their financial futures through increased bond sales. Finally, declining consumer confidence highlights the urgent need for enhanced financial literacy and personal resilience in uncertain economic times.

For listeners seeking to understand the complexities of the current economic landscape, this episode offers comprehensive insights, expert analyses, and real-world stories that encapsulate the struggles and adaptations of individuals and businesses alike.

Transcript

[Kai Rysdal]

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[Kyle Rysdal]

Clearly, this economy is on some kind of journey. The question is, where is it going to wind up? From American public media, this is Marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kyle Rysdal. It is Monday today. This one is the 17th of March. Good as always to have you along, everybody. We're going to come out the other end of this week with a better idea of what the people whose job it is to keep this economy on the straight and narrow. That would of course be the Federal Reserve, what they think about everything that is going on. The central bank meets tomorrow and Wednesday on interest rates and Sheriff Powell and the gang will also give us their sense of what our economic future might be, their projections for unemployment and inflation and interest rates. In the meanwhile, though, we were thinking a bit of a scene setter might be in order just to make sure everybody is up to speed. So we've called Mohamed El Erian, he's the president of Queens College, Cambridge. Dr. El Erian, good to have you back on the program, sir.

[Mohamed El Erian]

Thank you for having me.

[Kyle Rysdal]

What is your sense of what's being done to the American economy right now?

[Mohamed El Erian]

So what's being done is an attempt to reorganize it, both domestically and internationally. Domestically, we're seeing major efforts going on with the government. Of course, the hope is to streamline it, make it more efficient. And we've been promised a number of measures to deregulate the private sector. In terms of international, we're seeing attempts at a fairer trading system. This is a really tricky thing to do both domestically and internationally. It will involve what President Trump called little disturbances in the short term, what others see as a very bumpy journey. What is completely uncertain is what the destination looks like.

[Kyle Rysdal]

Reorganize, seems charitable. But let's talk about two things, the short term and the long term. In the short term, you yourself have now come out and said your estimates on the chances of a recession this year are now 30 ish percent instead of the 10 ish percent they were a couple of weeks ago. Do you recall a time when a President of the United States, through his policies, has sent the United States into a recession?

[Mohamed El Erian]

I don't. This sort of thing you see in developing countries, you've seen it recently in Argentina where the notion is you dismantle an existing system in order to put another one up. Think a little bit about you being on a plane and suddenly the decision is to dismantle the engine and put a new one on. It's actually very difficult to maintain altitude when you're trying to do that.

[Kyle Rysdal]

What's the worst case then?

[Mohamed El Erian]

So the worst case is that the US Economy slows to what's called stall speed. So let's give it some numbers. Coming into the year, the IMF thought that we would grow at about 2.7%. I suspect if the IMF were to update its projection today, that number will be 2% or below. Why does that matter? Because store speed for the US economy is about 1%. Then the probability of a recession suddenly goes up significantly. If we then fall into recession, you're going to see a couple of things happening. You're going to see the labor market getting hit and income is the only thing keeping people going at the low income stages after they've run down all their savings and incurred a lot of debt. And businesses are going to go from a wait and see to postponing investment programs for a long time. And in this environment and with inflation where it is, the Fed will not be able to get us out with interest rate cuts. So that is the negative scenarios that people are worried about.

[Kyle Rysdal]

I want to go over that again, the idea of the Federal Reserve and what happens. Because as you and others point out, the Fed is going to be challenged with rising inflation dynamics. Right. Because of the tariffs and price levels probably going up with a softening labor market. And that is a very bad place for the Fed to be.

[Mohamed El Erian]

Yeah, that's the so called whiff of stagflation where the two mandates of the Fed compete with each other in a negative sense. Look, if the Fed was really Serious about its 2% inflation target, we would not be talking about when will the Fed cut rates and by how much we'd be talking about when is the Fed going to hike rates. So I think when push comes to shove, the Fed will tolerate higher inflation for now in an attempt to protect the real economy. But there's only so much the Fed can do if the disturbances are coming from elsewhere.

[Kyle Rysdal]

Elsewhere. Meaning?

[Mohamed El Erian]

Meaning, for example, what's happening with Doge? One, it increases the income insecurity of federal employees. And when your income insecurity goes up, you spend less. Two, it is disrupting a lot of committed payments that had other commitments on their side. So we're seeing a lot of federal contractors having to lay off people. So there's a lot of disturbances going on the Doge side. And then on the tariff side, when you're not sure what the level of tariff is going to be, then you will postpone lots and lots of decisions that contribute to both current and future growth.

[Kyle Rysdal]

We have had so far colloquially vibes about what might be happening to the economy. Now we don't have yet hard data, and that seems to me to be a challenge because the hard data is going to be kind of not very good.

[Mohamed El Erian]

So the soft data, which is survey data, turns first, and the survey data has turned in a very significant manner. It has involved people's confidence about future prospects, about employment and about income coming down and people's expectation of inflation going up. Normally it takes about three to six months for the soft data to be reflected in the hard data. So we are call it in month two of the soft data really weakening right now.

[Kyle Rysdal]

Let's get back to where we started on the way out here. And that is the idea that what President Trump is doing to this economy is also being done to the global economy. The global order is being disassembled at lightning speed. And I guess, I wonder, as you talk to people around the world, as you do in very significant positions of influence, what is their sense of, first of all, what we're doing, and second of all, what it might mean?

[Mohamed El Erian]

I think people are hesitant. They're worried. There's this whole notion of you cannot replace something with nothing. So that like to have greater clarity on where are we going after all this, what does this notion of a fairway trading system look like? So they have uncertainties both about the journey and the destination.

[Kyle Rysdal]

Mohamed El Erian, he's at Queens College, Cambridge. He's at Allianz, used to be at PIMCO. Dr. El Aryan, thanks for your time, sir. I appreciate it.

[Mohamed El Erian]

Thank you.

[Kyle Rysdal]

On Wall street today, traders were clearly of the. Yeah, it's all going to be Fine. Plan or no plan, we'll have the details when we do the numbers. In theory, the whole point of President Trump's tariffs is to give American manufacturing a boost. And to that end, we got from the New York Federal Reserve today the Empire State Manufacturing Index, a survey of manufacturers in New York State about demand and input costs, employment, general business activities. Right. In March, that index fell to its lowest level in more than a year. Marketplace's Justin Ho draws the macroeconomic conclusions.

[Justin Ho]

Demand is lower, inventories are piling up on manufacturers shelves, and employment levels are cooling off, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Index. And prices on both inputs and finished products are up.

[Kyle Rysdal]

Both of those measures rose to their highest level in a couple of years.

[Justin Ho]

Tim Quinlan, a senior economist with Wells Fargo, he says this is the latest indication that tariffs are already causing friction.

[Kyle Rysdal]

You saw it with last week's consumer sentiment measures, you saw it with retail sales numbers, and you're certainly seeing some softness in this gauge from the New York Fed.

[Justin Ho]

New York's manufacturing sector includes a lot of industries that are vulnerable to tariffs. Russell Weaver is research director with Cornell's School of Industrial and Labor Relations.

[Russell Weaver]

There are firms that, for example, are producing parts for wind energy, for solar energy.

[Kyle Rysdal]

We've seen growth in a lot of.

[Russell Weaver]

That, but there are also a lot of staples.

[Justin Ho]

So we do still have auto and.

[Russell Weaver]

STE industries present in New York State.

[Justin Ho]

One factor in particular might have weighed on the index. Earlier in the month when the New York Fed conducted the survey, Canada had threatened to slap a surcharge on energy exports to New York and two other states in response to the Trump administration's tariffs. Richard Vogel is dean of the School of Business at Farmingdale State College. He says even though Canada ultimately held.

[Russell Weaver]

Off, just the possibility of it coming.

[Kyle Rysdal]

In starts to weigh in on people's.

[Russell Weaver]

Thought processes and their planning.

[Justin Ho]

The Empire State Manufacturing Index also tends to be volatile month to month. But Kathy Bostjancik, chief economist at Nationwide, says the index can give us an early glimpse of what's happening to manufacturing across the country.

[Kathy Bostjancik]

I went back just the last 10.

[Kyle Rysdal]

Years to see what's the correlation, and it does suggest that when we see some changes happening in the New York.

[Kai Rysdal]

Area, that tends to be reflective also.

[Kyle Rysdal]

At the national level.

[Justin Ho]

And Bostanczk says right now the Empire State Manufacturing Index is pointing to a slowdown. Hi, I'm Justin Hao for Marketplace.

[Kyle Rysdal]

We got the report on February retail sales this morning, up just 0.2% from a month earlier. Well shy of expectations. And given all the economic agenda of late among consumers and business owners alike, we figured we should hear from our retail regulars today. So here's the first one. Ashley Morkins, the owner of Unglued in Fargo, North Dakota.

[Ashley Morkins]

We had our best February we've ever had. We were up 7% than last February, but we were down in January. And March is shaping up to be slower on the retail side. However, our events in March are going better. Our biggest challenge right now is finances more than anything else because 2024 didn't end as strong as we wanted it to and we definitely didn't meet our goals on the retail side of things. We, we ended at a loss last year. This is something that happens sometimes. So it's not scary for me because we, we know ways that we can come back with it. We have not had to raise our prices overall yet. Our makers with our consignment, typically do set all their retail prices. I kind of am just preparing for that though. So many of the supplies that makers make their product with are definitely coming from overseas and so I do anticipate that their supply costs are going to go up for their handmade work. I am definitely suspicious and have some anxiety about what it's going to look like as things keep getting people more worried about their money with a threat of tariffs. And, and so I'm super curious if that means that people are going to be holding their money more and trying to save it, looking ahead to the future and what will that mean for our retail store?

[Kyle Rysdal]

What indeed. Ashley Morgan there, Unglued is her shop. Fargo, North Dakota is her city. Retailer number two in a couple of minutes.

[Kathy Bostjancik]

Coming up, we're doing our best to avoid over promising to our customers under.

[Kyle Rysdal]

Promise and over deliver. That's the way. Right? First though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials up 353 today. That's 9. 10%. 41,800. The NASDAQ climbed 54 points. 3, 10%. 17,808s and P 500 added 36 points. About 6. 10%, 56 and 75. On this St. Patrick's Day, let's check in with some stocks with connections to the Emerald Isle, shall we? Medtronic, which has its legal headquarters in Galway, Ireland since acquiring Covidian in 2015, added 0.3%. Dublin based Accenture, which specializes in IT services and management consulting and large two and two tenths percent today. Smurfit Westrock, that's an Irish American company that makes cardboard and paper packaging, printed up 2.2% today. According to the US Census. Should you be curious, there are 31.5 million people of Irish descent in the United States, 9.5% of the entire population. Bond prices went up. Yield on the 10 year 2 note fell to 4.30%. You're listening to Marketplace.

[Russell Weaver]

Foreign.

[Kai Rysdal]

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[Kyle Rysdal]

This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. Mohamed El Erian was talking up at the top of the program today about soft data versus hard data, vibes versus Verifiable statistics. It's important to understand that virtually all the hard data we get about this economy are what are called lagging indicators. They tell us what happened, not what's gonna happen. So as Dr. El Erian said, it's gonna be a couple of months before that hard data tells us what's been going on in this economy. But in the February jobs report that we got a couple of weeks ago, hard data, remember there was a line item that seems to be a bit of foreshadowing. The number of people working more than one job hit an all time high in February. Almost 9 million people and about 60% of them are doing the traditional moonlighting thing, working full time with a part time gig in their off hours. Others are stringing together multiple part time jobs trying to get by. Marketplace's Matt Levin is on the side hustle beat for us today.

[Russell Weaver]

Annika Seidman Gaddy started picking up shifts last spring for a pop up restaurant in New York City. By day, she's a therapist for students at a New York college. She's used to working multiple jobs, did it for most of her 20s, but after a recent weekend working as a server from Thursday through Saturday with shifts that sometimes ended after midnight.

[Annika Seidman Gaddy]

Now I'm in my mid-30s so it feels a little different. The body's very tired. Definitely not, not getting up off the couch on Sunday after, after a weekend like that.

[Russell Weaver]

Simon Gaddy is 36 and makes about 100 grand at her counseling job, which is full time five days a week. The $1,100 she made from one weekend at that restaurant last month came in handy between her $2,000 rent and some long standing credit card debt and recently resumed student loan payments. Money is tight when it comes to.

[Annika Seidman Gaddy]

Looking at at the end of the month how much money I have. When that number is smaller than it used to be, then it definitely feels better to know that there's a little bit of extra money coming in.

[Russell Weaver]

According to the Bureau of Labor statistics, about 5.4% of all U.S. workers in February had a second job. But because the government only asks if someone had multiple jobs in the past week, it's actually missing a lot of moonlighters.

[Kyle Rysdal]

This five and a half percent is just the tip of the iceberg.

[Russell Weaver]

Lonnie golden is an economist at Penn State. According to his research, in 2023, over.

[Kyle Rysdal]

20% of workers are working additional jobs, at least in the last six months.

[Russell Weaver]

Golden says it used to be that it took a recession to spike the number of people holding multiple jobs. But over the last 15 years or so, with Uber and TaskRabbit in the digital gigafication of the side hustles are now just common with platform technology. It's easier for people to take on additional jobs, particularly professionals, but non professionals as well. Economist Dean Baker at the center for Economic and Policy Research says it's too early to say whether a weakening labor market is causing more people to work multiple jobs, but given the economic uncertainty of the past few months, it makes sense. Some are exploring backup options. People are reasonably being cautious if they aren't sure that their main job's going to be there. A backup plan is a big reason Stephanie Crows started moonlighting as a Realtor. She works full time as an office and facilities manager for a Sacramento law firm.

[Kyle Rysdal]

I've seen a lot of people who don't have a parachute, you know, and it's just kind of like, wait a second, do I have that? Am I okay?

[Russell Weaver]

Both Crow and her husband work multiple jobs and collectively make 140 grand or so a year. They have two teenage children in the house. When her husband had a heart attack in 2020, Crow started taking real estate classes. The Realtor job makes her feel more secure, and the extra income's nice. She figures she's made about 50 grand over the last couple years.

[Kyle Rysdal]

It helps a lot, you know, just being able to go buy groceries without a calculator. I mean, that's a huge blessing.

[Russell Weaver]

Crow says eventually she'd like to help buy and sell houses full time. Sometimes your side hustle can turn into your regular job. I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.

[Kyle Rysdal]

While we didn't actually plan to be so vibe heavy on the program today, changing vibes are absolutely what are at play in energy and environment here in the second Trump administration. Gone are the Paris climate Accords. In is drill, baby, drill. But this is one of those, sure, you can fight the market if you want stories, because the fact of the matter is that with global energy demand on the rise, humanity is going to need energy from everywhere. Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval has that one.

[Annika Seidman Gaddy]

Price stability is a big reason to rely on a variety of energy sources, says Greg Upton with lsu.

[Russell Weaver]

Even if natural gas right now is the least cost kind of new generation source, the cost to doing that, if you go all in on any source, and this includes natural gas, is that of course the price of that commodity can fluctuate.

[Annika Seidman Gaddy]

So if natural gas prices spike, this.

[Russell Weaver]

Could lead to really large increases in electricity prices.

[Annika Seidman Gaddy]

But the US can turn to other energy sources if that happens, like solar, wind, coal, nuclear, and geothermal. And prices are actually more likely than a president to bring certain energy sources off or online. Daniel Ramey is with the nonprofit Resources for the Future.

[Ashley Morkins]

Coal production and consumption has declined dramatically.

[Kyle Rysdal]

In the United States, and that's primarily because we're producing natural gas at a.

[Annika Seidman Gaddy]

Very low cost, which is why he believes coal will continue to decline under the Trump administration because of the competition.

[Ashley Morkins]

From natural gas and renewables. Renewables are almost certainly to keep growing.

[Russell Weaver]

Will those technologies shift dramatically from today to four years from now in the overall energy picture? It's a big shift, likely, not too much.

[Annika Seidman Gaddy]

Morgan Bazilian is with the Colorado School of Mines. He says it's not just the energy mix that is likely to stay the course. So will some emissions mitigation and monitoring.

[Russell Weaver]

If they're going to sell their product to a global company that then ships it to lng, that company wants to ensure that their supply chain is as low emissions and efficient as possible.

[Annika Seidman Gaddy]

As the US Pushes more of its LNG or liquefied natural gas abroad, the companies that do the exporting will continue to be held to international standards. I'm Elizabeth Troval from Market Marketplace.

[Kyle Rysdal]

Retailer number two now, Kalina Bruce, owner of Noirlux Candle Bar up in Seattle, Washington.

[Kathy Bostjancik]

So this is typically what we would consider to be our slow season, but honestly, we're still seeing a really good amount of activity. Overall, our sales are up about 10% this month compared to this time last year. So that's super exciting for us. Our inventory situation is a bit challenging right now. Many of our suppliers are backstocked, which has been super frustrating. But we're doing our best to avoid over promising to our customers. And that can kind of be tough when our suppliers oversell something to us and we end up having to wait for it to arrive. We know that people are being much more intentional with their spending these days, so we're just focusing on creating more value through our experiences and trying to offer unique products. We recently got a bid to do a wellness box for a women's Summit, which we had. We've done wellness boxes before, but in this particular instance, we had to curate the box from all of the items. And it was a large order. And so that kind of got our wheels going about things like, you know, offering more wellness sets or even thinking about subscription boxes. I think it's important to strike a balance between like being proactive and planful and then just staying agile and being ready to adapt to things and being and being willing to be innovative and try new things.

[Kyle Rysdal]

Kalina Bruce, the owner of Noir Luxe Candle Bar, she's in Seattle. This final note on the way out today, in which once again, the bond market can tell you a whole lot about what's going on, saw this on Bloomberg that municipal bond sales by colleges and universities are up more than 40% so far. This year compared to the same period in 2024. Colleges, as you have probably seen elsewhere in your news feeds, are being targeted by the Trump administration and so are looking to secure financing ahead of possible changes in tax policy or funding cancellations. $10 billion in those bond sales so far this year, topping the mart set in 2017. Also, as it happens, the beginning of a Trump presidency. Our daily production team includes Andy Corbin, Nicholas guillaume, Maria Hollenhorst, Iru Ekbanobi Sarlisan, Sean McHenry and Sophia Terenzio. I'm Kai Rysdal. We will see you tomorrow, Everybody. This is APM.

[Janelie Espinal]

Consumer confidence had its sharpest monthly decline since 2021, which means we're all in our fields about money. And while uncertainty is the only constant these days, it's also a great reason to get serious about understanding personal finance. I'm Janelie Espinal, host of Financially Inclined, a podcast from Marketplace that makes learning about money simple. Learn about practical skills like negotiating job offers, dealing with money and friendship and love, entrepreneurship and student loans. Get serious about your money and build a life you've always dreamed of. Listen to Financially Inclined wherever you get your podcasts.