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Kai Rysdal
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Marketplace Host
The American Labor Market Discuss from American Public Media. This is Marketplace. We will begin. Sudeep Ready is at Politico. Heather Long is at the Washington Post. Hey you two.
Sudeep Ready
Hi.
Marketplace Host
So Heather Long, the jobs report came out today for November. 227,000 new jobs, 4.2% the unemployment rate. But you are not completely satisfied, shall we say?
Heather Long
I'd call it a mixed report. It was certainly good to see that bounce back from hardly any jobs gained in October. But you also have to recognize that the unemployment rate went up and that means more people are unemployed. I tweeted how there are 883,000 more Americans unemployed now than a year ago. You know, that has some real consequences, I would say in the big picture context. I look at this and I saw it. You know, it's a pretty good time to be employed. Wages are rising really fast. We do have the return to office push, which is a little annoying, but it's a really crappy time to be looking for a job. I hope I can say crappy on public radio.
Marketplace Host
Well, you just did, so I guess you can.
Heather Long
But look, hiring is really weak, the weakest we've seen in over a decade. And obviously we saw an increase in the amount of people who are unemployed for six months. Months are over, so it's hard to find a job right now.
Marketplace Host
Sudeep J. Powell sees these numbers yesterday afternoon and thinks what this is a.
Sudeep Ready
Slightly slowing job market, but nothing alarming. There's no reason for him to radically change course. It is still an overall reasonably strong economy. For all of the fears he's had over the last two years that everything was going to fall apart, we're really not there yet. This is a stable job market. This is healthy wage growth. Yes, the unemployment rate has ticked up a little bit, but also he jacked up interest rates for a couple years and he's bringing them down. And so this is still what he would consider a soft landing scenario. We'll see whether that changes next year.
Marketplace Host
It's so interesting you said soft landing. We haven't heard that in a while.
Sudeep Ready
We haven't. It's a magic phrase now, isn't it? We want to talk about it.
Marketplace Host
Heather. 4.2% is historically on the low end of where this thing goes, but it's well above wherever we were at the low, which I forget was 3.4, 3.5%, something like that, right?
Heather Long
Yeah, that's right, 3.4%. And so, I mean, look, we've said, Sudeep said the overall takeaway here, I would call it there's some cracks and the cracks aren't troubling right now, but you don't want to start the domino effect. And if we see a lot more unemployment in the coming months, then that starts to mean more people unemployed, pulling back on consumer spending, and it starts that chain effect that you don't want to see. And so that's why I think most people are still betting that the Federal Reserve will do another rate cut here in December just to ensure that domino effect doesn't start.
Marketplace Host
Sudeep on the unemployment rate and then we'll move on. It is a little bit like that Hemingway phrase, right? How do you go broke very slowly and then all at once, Right. The unemployment rate goes up slowly, but then it's really hard to start getting.
Sudeep Ready
Control of Again, it really is. The one caveat I would offer is that this cycle has been unlike any other. And so you have to be careful in drawing concern from that. But it is true that every time the unemployment rate has just started to curve up a little bit, usually a shock comes a few months later and sends it skyrocketing. Again, this has been a different cycle, so we will hope that that does not happen in the same way.
Marketplace Host
Fair enough. Heather. Consumers Consumer confidence came out today, seventh month in a row it went up. That's got to be good for something.
Heather Long
It was such a fascinating report. You're right. This is one of the ones you have to read the details on because like you, I, I saw the headlines and thought, hey, this is good, you know, finally we're getting some good vibes again in the economy. And then you read the details and it's basically Republicans are super happy, Democrats are now gloomy, Independents saw a small jump. But the really fascinating thing in this report is the reason, a big reason that the sentiment went up a little bit is because people think now is a good time to buy a car or a washing machine or an oven before they anticipate tariffs coming in 2025. So it's kind of, it's kind of one of those mixed bag where you're like, this doesn't sound quite so good if you feel you must buy now.
Marketplace Host
Well, since, since Heather took us there. Sudeep, let me keep going. On a scale of 1 to 10, your level of concern about economic disruption after January 20th.
Sudeep Ready
I think economic disruption is part of the plan here. And I say that, I say that with the understanding that the idea of radically scaling back regulation is a goal of the administration. And disruption in some ways can be good. We've heard that term in the positive phrase. But there's also a form of disruption that I don't think people have fully absorbed. One of them, as Heather mentioned, is the tariff effect and what could happen with inflation as product prices are reflecting tariffs. The other is immigration. We don't like to talk about the fact that the low end of the labor market is filled with undocumented labor. And when you remove that, product prices will respond, whether it's farms, whether it's cleaning homes, whether it's food deliveries. All of that will suddenly create disruption in the labor market that could get us back to inflation, just as we thought it was in the rearview mirror. So there are a lot of things percolating here when you do such an abrupt shift in economic policy. And that's what we are on the cusp of seeing in the coming months.
Marketplace Host
Heather, one of the reasons I love to read your stuff in the post is that you actually, to that point that Sudeep was just mentioning about disruption in the labor market, you have a keen eye for what people are worried about. Do you get a sense in your reporting and in your writing that people are worried about the coming Trump administration or are they just keeping their heads down trying to get their jobs done?
Heather Long
Ooh, that's a good one. There is a lot of real fear about tariffs right now and maybe people are listening to your show, Kai. They're getting the message that, you know, they don't want anything to cause more inflation. People are so ready for lower prices, but you know, at the same time they think that President Trump will deliver those lower prices and that a lot of those costs for tariffs would be paid for by China or by other countries. So, you know, it's wait and see mode at the moment. I think they see it just like Wall street does, more more as bluster and talk than actual harm coming their way.
Marketplace Host
It is unknown unknowns. Heather Long at the Washington Post on this Friday. Sudeep Ready at Politico, Thanks. You too. Good to talk to you.
Sudeep Ready
Thanks, Kai.
Heather Long
Thanks, Kai.
Marketplace Host
Have a great weekend. Wall street today, Heather was just talking about that. Kind of a mixed message actually, as traders tried to read the job marketee leaves details numbers when we get there. There was one kind of surprise in that unemployment report this morning. Retail jobs in November fell by 28,000. That is seasonally adjusted. And it comes, of course, at the time of year when retailers are staffing up to handle all the holiday shopping they are hoping is coming their way. And when the National Retail Federation expects holiday spending to total at least get a load of this number $979 billion. Marketplace's Henry Epp has more on what's going on with retail hiring this year.
Corey Staley
At the job listing site. Indeed, there's a pretty typical trend in postings for seasonal retail jobs, says company economist Corey Staley.
Marketplace Host
They tend to rise pretty gradually through.
Aaron Tarazas
September October peaking in mid November.
Corey Staley
That's how this season started out, he says. But then instead of having a typical.
Marketplace Host
Spike in mid November like we usually.
Aaron Tarazas
See, it actually kind of plateaued a little bit.
Corey Staley
One explanation could be that we are doing a lot more shopping online, which means retailers need fewer people in stores and more in warehouses and transportation. Jobs in those areas have grown significantly the last few years. However, says independent economist Aaron Tarazas.
Marketplace Host
It's not a one for one trade.
Corey Staley
Off because, he says, companies have also added more warehouse automation.
Marketplace Host
There has been all this investment in robotics and scale that makes warehouse workers a lot more productive than they were five or 10 years ago.
Corey Staley
On the transportation side, he says, more companies are hiring gig workers to deliver packages, which means those workers might not show up the same way in jobs data. The robots are coming for brick and mortar stores too, says Monica Haynes at the University of Minnesota Duluth.
Heather Long
If you go shopping in a lot of stores, they have one cashier who manages, you know, a number of different self checkout spots.
Corey Staley
So in the front and back end, retailers may just not need quite as many people as they used to, even in a busy holiday shopping season. But there is one more wonky explanation for the slightly weaker retail hiring numbers, this seasonal adjustment and the pandemic years, says Sarah House at Wells Fargo.
Monica Haynes
The statistical methods are essentially looking for a bigger increase this time of year because they're still incorporating what happened in 2020 and 2021.
Corey Staley
Remember, that was when there was a big bounce back in hiring after the pandemic lockdowns. I'm Henriette for Marketplace.
Marketplace Host
The operator of the power grid in Texas goes by the acronym ercot, which stands for Electric Reliability Council of Texas. About which two things number one, ERCOT says there's an 80% chance of blackouts if there's a severe winter storm down there. And number two, just this week, ERCOT's meteorologist said winter weather this year is turning out pretty similar to 2021, which you might remember is when a major winter storm took out electricity across that state. In the event storms do come, though, and outages do happen this winter, a lot of Texans are going to be better prepared, and that's because of what's on or inside or around their homes.
Monica Haynes
As Marketplace's Elizabeth explains, Houstonian Mike Dishberger had about had it with blackouts last year. He installed solar panels and battery storage. Then when Hurricane Beryl knocked out power.
Aaron Tarazas
This summer, we got through the whole.
Marketplace Host
Night with the battery backup.
Monica Haynes
Dishburger is a home builder in Houston, and he says that especially after outages last summer, homebuyers want their homes to be prepared.
Marketplace Host
They want to know what you're doing. A lot of my homes after I sell them are getting solar panels now, too.
Monica Haynes
His homes are Energy Star. They're more efficient and stay hot or cold longer.
Corey Staley
In an outage, a lot of people.
Marketplace Host
Will say, hey, can you increase the insulation in the attic or maybe between the bedroom or in the garage below you? Possibly.
Monica Haynes
And In Austin and Dallas, home builder Lennar is partnering with the electricity retailer Basepower to install backup power batteries in new homes. Basepower COO Justin Lopos for a Lennar.
Marketplace Host
Customer, a new homebuyer here in Texas, especially if they're moving from out of state, they have this sort of added resiliency that they might not have otherwise had had they gone to either another home builder or bought a home without a backup solution.
Monica Haynes
Basepower installs the battery for free for their electricity customers and own and operate the battery so we get access to.
Marketplace Host
The battery when the grid's up and running to serve the Texas grid and the homeowner gets access to the battery when the grid goes off.
Monica Haynes
While batteries make for great backup power during outages, Mark Kresowick with the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy favors building to the top efficiency standards.
Aaron Tarazas
Installing insulation and air sealing can be.
Sudeep Ready
The difference between life and death for people.
Monica Haynes
A Department of Energy study found that new homes built to 2021 building codes could stay habitable for days longer than older homes. Still, he says many cities and states haven't updated their building standards. In Houston, I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace.
Jim Tobin
Coming up, a full third of the workers are immigrants.
Marketplace Host
Once again, everybody, immigration is a labor market story. But first, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrial is down 123 today, about 3, 10%. 44,642. The Nasdaq gained 159 points, about 8, 10%. 19,008 5 niner s and P 500 down 15 points a quarter percent. 60, 90 there 6090 for the five days gone by, the Dow off 6/10%. The Nasdaq gained nearly 1% s and P 500 was up 3%. Healthcare was 1 of the sectors showing an uptick in Today's jobs report. 54,000 new jobs for the 11th straight month of growth. The positions were in ambulatory services, hospitals and home health care. So in some related stocks, Tenet Healthcare Corporation was unchanged. Option care health grew 0.6 of 1% today. The U.S. department of Agriculture has announced it's going to start testing the country's milk supply for H5N1. That's a strain of bird flu spreading in dairy cows. So dairy related stock. Shall we? Lifeway foods filled up nine tenths percent. General Mills down 7. 10%. Unilever shed nine tenths of 1%. Today. Bond prices were up. That means the Yield went down 10 years at 4.14%. You're listening to Marketplace.
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Aaron Tarazas
People.
Kai Rysdal
Looking for toys that'll get the biggest reactions.
Marketplace Host
Yes, please.
Kai Rysdal
Walmart has jaw dropping toys. Like for real, Daisy Yoga Goat awesome Razor Crazy Cart Shuffle, Whoa. Hot wheels, Bluey, 3 in 1, airplane playset, and more. Aren't you gonna say cool?
Heather Long
I'm saving it for the holidays.
Kai Rysdal
Smart.
Marketplace Host
Aw, freak out.
Kai Rysdal
Welcome to your Walmart.
Marketplace Host
This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. Jobs and the labor market are the backbone of the program today, in case you couldn't tell. And we'll pick up on one industry in particular right now, construction hiring, which was basically unchanged in November. Which is actually okay because it's a sign A long standing labor shortage in the construction industry has been easing the jolts. Data that we got from the Labor Department earlier this week showed just a little less than 250,000 unfilled construction jobs in October. That is down for more than 400,000 a year ago. Good, but still a shortage at a time when, honestly, we need more houses. And it comes as another potential threat to the construction workforce looms with the change in administrations. Marketplace's Amy Scott is on that one.
Amy Scott
At a new housing development in suburban Baltimore called Joppa Crossing, a crew of 10 or so men is framing a row of future townhouses. Most of the workers are immigrants, including Marlon Garcia, who's originally from El Salvador.
Aaron Tarazas
These guys are from Mexico, another guy from Guatemala, and some of them from Honduras.
Amy Scott
Garcia's mom brought him to the US As a teenager seeking a better life. Now he has four kids of his own and says this job pays well. He got it through a connection because.
Aaron Tarazas
My wife is the daughter for my boss.
Amy Scott
Yep. His wife is, is his boss's daughter. Garcia's immigrant background is common in this industry. The latest construction market labor report from the Home Builders Institute estimates foreign born workers now make up a quarter of the overall construction workforce, a new high.
Jim Tobin
When you kind of get down to the subcontractors that work in the residential space in particular, you're talking about a full third of the workers are immigrants.
Amy Scott
Jim Tobin is CEO of the national association of Home Builders. He says the workforce is still recovering from the housing crash that triggered the Great recession in the mid-2000s. Many workers left the industry and never came back. And as skilled tradespeople get older and closer to retirement, fewer young people have entered the pipeline.
Jim Tobin
Immigrant labor makes up that shortfall in the labor pool that we don't have because we're not either attracting domestic workers or training enough domestic workers to fill the roles that we need.
Amy Scott
So Tobin says home builders are concerned about the incoming Trump administration's immigration policies. The president elect has promised mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. The Pew research center estimates 13% of construction workers are undocumented. Even the threat, Tobin says, could have a chilling effect.
Jim Tobin
Just even talking about mass deportations could take people off of job sites and melting back into the shadows at a time when we need to build more housing, which means we need more workers, which means we need to find a way to bring more people into this country legally in order to work in the industry.
Amy Scott
Tobin says the association has been pushing for a new visa program for construction workers. Marisa Diaz directs the Immigrant Worker justice program at the National Employment Law Project. She expects the Trump administration won't just target undocumented workers.
Marketplace Host
There's also fears around what could happen to programs that exist now that provide.
Kai Rysdal
Temporary immigration protections and work authorization, and Trump attempting to end those programs.
Amy Scott
The Trump campaign blamed demand from immigrants for driving up housing costs. But Ali Wolf, chief economist at the housing data and consulting firm Zonda, says stricter immigration policy has an economic price, too.
Heather Long
And if we find that we see.
Amy Scott
A more severe labor shortage and that.
Heather Long
Ends up increasing the cost to build.
Monica Haynes
Homes, that cost is simply going to.
Heather Long
Get passed on to consumers.
Amy Scott
A recent study from the Universities of Utah and Wisconsin found that the deportation of more than 300,000 undocumented immigrants between 2008 and 2013 during the Obama administration was associated with a slowdown in home building and an increase in housing prices at Joppa. Crop cost is top of mind for Earl Robinson. He's president of the developer Ward Communities. He says he's had no trouble finding workers, so he's not worried about Trump's immigration policies. But in this tight labor market, his vendors, the framers and roofers and carpet installers, are charging a lot more.
Marketplace Host
It is strictly labor. My guess, it's a little bit of two things. It is they have to pay a little bit more, but it's also they have an opportunity to charge more. And they do.
Amy Scott
Robinson welcomes what he hopes will be less regulation under a Trump administration. But there's another unknown he says could add to his costs the threat of new tariffs on building materials in Joppa, Maryland. I'm Amy Scott for Marketplace.
Marketplace Host
If you subscribe to the music streaming giant Spotify, you have probably seen by now what's become something of a year end tradition. Your Spotify wrapped playlist. When the company tells you the artists and the songs and the genres you listen to most over the past 12 months. Share on social media if you dare. I did this year. Seeing though as how we got the last jobs report for calendar year 2024 today, we thought it might be fitting if we created a Spotify wrapped for the American labor market. The songs that captured the ebbs and flows of the workforce we devote so much of our time to. Marketplace's Matt Levin made some calls.
Aaron Tarazas
Economist Olu Sonola at Fitch Ratings wants you to know he actually isn't a super fan of early 2000s Post grunge pop rock. It's just when I asked him what song he would pick to best describe the trajectory of the Labor Market in 2024, what immediately popped in his head was if I go crazy, then will.
Marketplace Host
You still call me Superman?
Aaron Tarazas
Kryptonite 3 doors.
Marketplace Host
The fed was supposed.
Aaron Tarazas
To be the kryptonite of the U.S. labor market. That didn't happen. And I'm thinking of the labor market pretty much in superhuman terms. We started the year at 3.7% unemployment. The Fed didn't cut rates until September and unemployment is still really low. That's unusual, especially when you look outside our borders. Which brings us to bank of America economist Steven Juno's selection they Not Like.
Marketplace Host
Us they Not Like Us They Not.
Aaron Tarazas
Like Us Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar. Because compare the US you know us to the rest of the world. We're just really the standout. Our unemployment rate right now is 4.2%. The Eurozone's is over 6, Canada's is nearly 7. And I don't think Drake has filed for unemployment yet. Still, even if US workers had an objectively better 2024 than many of their foreign counterparts, every consumer sentiment survey and political poll said we didn't feel that way. Betsy Stevenson at the University of Michigan says if she was going to describe the Labor Market in 2024, she turned to the lyrics of one Demi Lovato.
Marketplace Host
Do you stay uncomplicated.
Kai Rysdal
We added what, over 2 million jobs.
Heather Long
Real wages are up, and yet the.
Amy Scott
Response of the public is it's complicated.
Kai Rysdal
I think it's underrated.
Aaron Tarazas
Stevenson hopes the labor market will remain strong in 2025, but she wouldn't say she's 100% confident. Sorry, I'm Matt Levin for Market.
Marketplace Host
This final note on the way out today. A fun ish thing I like to point out from time to time. The American labor force is, give or take, 168 million people strong. And trying to measure it as closely as we do is, well, it's tricky. So I find it helpful to remember the margin of error for the monthly unemployment report, the November version of which, of course, we got today. This economy added 227,000 new jobs last month, plus or minus 130,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.2%, plus or minus 2/10 of a percentage point. Try trotting that out at your next dinner party. Make new friends. See what they say. Our theme music was composed I don't go to any dinner parties. Our theme music was composed by BJ Lederman. Marketplace's Executive producer is Nancy Fargali. Donna Tam is the Executive editor. Neal Scarborough is the Vice President and General Manager. I'm Kai Rysdal. Have yourselves a great weekend everybody. We are back on Monday. It's not going to be me though. Have you heard heard how I sound? This is apm.
Kai Rysdal
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Marketplace Podcast Summary: Wrapping Up the 2024 Job Market
Host: Kai Ryssdal | Release Date: December 7, 2024
Introduction
In the December 7, 2024 episode of Marketplace, host Kai Ryssdal delves into the nuances of the American job market as the year draws to a close. Featuring insights from Heather Long of The Washington Post and Sudeep Ready of Politico, the episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the latest jobs report, consumer confidence, and emerging challenges in the labor market.
1. November Jobs Report: A Mixed Bag
The episode begins with the release of the November jobs report, which announced the creation of 227,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. While these figures indicate growth, Long expresses a tempered optimism.
Long highlights that while employment is improving, the rising unemployment rate—up by 883,000 compared to the previous year—signals underlying issues. This increase suggests more individuals are out of work, potentially dampening consumer spending and economic momentum.
Conversely, Ready offers a more optimistic perspective, framing the data within the context of a stable and strong economy.
Ready characterizes the situation as a "soft landing," suggesting that the economy is adjusting without veering into recession.
2. Consumer Confidence: Positive Trends with Caveats
The discussion shifts to consumer confidence, which has risen for the seventh consecutive month. However, Long interprets this uptick with caution.
This surge in confidence is partly driven by anticipatory purchases ahead of expected tariffs, indicating that while sentiment appears positive, underlying motives reveal economic uncertainty.
3. The Construction Labor Shortage and Immigration Concerns
A significant portion of the episode addresses the persistent labor shortage in the construction industry, exacerbated by shifting immigration policies under the incoming Trump administration.
With immigrants constituting up to a third of the construction workforce, any policy tightening poses a threat to housing development. Tobin warns of potential disruptions in housing supply and increased construction costs if immigrant labor becomes less accessible.
The episode underscores the delicate balance between maintaining a robust labor force and implementing strict immigration controls, highlighting the broader economic implications of such policies.
4. Retail Hiring Trends: Automation and Online Shopping Impact
The November jobs report also revealed a decline in retail job growth, particularly during a period traditionally marked by increased hiring for the holiday season.
Unexpectedly, retail hiring plateaued instead of spiking, attributed to the rise in online shopping and increased automation.
Automation in warehouses and the rise of gig workers for delivery services have reduced the need for in-store retail staff, contributing to the stagnant job numbers in the sector.
5. Stock Market and Agriculture Highlights
Brief segments touch upon the stock market's performance and agricultural concerns, including the impact of H5N1 bird flu on dairy cows.
6. Cultural Analogies: Labor Market as Music
In a creative segment, economist Olu Sonola likens the labor market's trajectory to songs that capture its essence throughout 2024.
This analogy serves to illustrate the resilience and strength of the U.S. labor market compared to international counterparts.
7. Final Insights and Statistical Nuances
Ryssdal wraps up by highlighting the complexities in measuring the labor force, emphasizing the margin of error in unemployment reports.
This reminder underscores the inherent uncertainties in economic data, encouraging listeners to interpret reports with a discerning eye.
Conclusion
The Marketplace episode provides a multifaceted examination of the 2024 job market, balancing optimistic job creation figures with concerns over rising unemployment and potential labor shortages in key industries. Through expert analyses and real-world examples, Kai Ryssdal paints a picture of an economy that, while showing signs of strength, grapples with underlying challenges that could shape its trajectory in the coming year.
Notable Quotes:
This detailed summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the current state and future outlook of the American job market.