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Analyst Targets Relief Rally, Is $105K Bitcoin On The Horizon? | Markets Outlook
00:10:51
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- [00:00]
A
We don't have that safe haven characteristic right now from the way it's trading as an asset, but we do have an asset that's trading differently from the other asset classes. And that to me is opportunity. It's opportunity to have diversification. Through Bitcoin and the altcoins.
- [00:26]
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Pudgy Penguins has emerged as a standout NFT brand this cycle. A new Coindesk research report details how the company evolved into a multi vertical consumer platform, generating over $13 million in retail sales across Walmart, Target and Walgreens. Discover the data behind their phygital funnel@coindesk.com research. Hey everyone, you're watching Markets Outlook on CoinDesk. I'm Jen Senasi. Bitcoin and Ether are kicking off 2026 with a tug of war between short term momentum and long term hurdles. After, after a powerful start to the year, the crypto majors are hitting key technical crossroads that could define the next several months of price action. Joining us now to navigate what's to come is Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies. Hi, Katie.
- [01:11]
A
Good morning, Jen.
- [01:12]
B
All right, let's talk about what's going on in the markets this morning. I often start by asking our guests what you're watching. A very broad question, but I want to start here and then we can talk a little bit about what you're watching. What's keeping you up at night? You know, bitcoin is really trailing traditional safety assets like gold and silver. I think gold recently hit a record of over $4,600 an ounce. Silver also hit an all time high. What is this telling you about about where we are?
- [01:40]
A
It has been interesting to track the correlations lately. We for a while had seen bitcoin very highly correlated to the NASDAQ 100 index. That correlation isn't always the case. It's somewhat cyclical in and of itself, so we don't rely on it. But it does at times inform our biases. And we think of bitcoin as trading more often like a risk asset versus something like gold or now of course, silver. Gold and silver have been quite different though, right? Where we have new highs being registered, very strong positive momentum and that contrasts the action from bitcoin and ether and other altcoins. We've had a pretty substantial intermediate term downdraft to lead to stabilization. Of late, from really early December is when we started to see bitcoin and many of the altcoins find their footing.
- [02:33]
B
I want to talk a little bit more about that, but you know Bitcoin is, was previously and usually seen as a safe haven asset like gold and silver. What is it telling you, if we look at some of the qualitative data out there, that Bitcoin is now being viewed as more of a risk asset rather than a safe haven asset?
- [02:52]
A
Yeah, you can just see it in the charts. And the volatility of course is incredibly high for the whole cryptocurrency market. So Bitcoin in particular to me has never really treated that way from a technical perspective. The characteristics are really quite different and I think this environment has been exemplary of that. Whereas gold by the way, isn't really acting much like a safe haven either in that it has just been going kind of parabolically higher and it hasn't been interrupted very much by corrective phases. So neither are really having that, that characteristic, that more defensive property when you compare it to The S&P 500 or other broad equity benchmarks. So we don't have that safe haven characteristic right now from the way it's trading, trading as an asset, but we do have an asset that's trading differently from the other asset classes. And that to me is opportunity. It's opportunity to have diversification through Bitcoin and the altcoins.
- [03:56]
B
All right, let's take a look at some of the technicals. Now, Bitcoin recently broke above its 50 day moving average, but since retreated. Talk to me about the support between 86,000 and 88,000. How critical is it that we hold these levels this week?
- [04:11]
A
It's really very critical and it doesn't have to just be this week, it's more going forward because with that those levels encompass both a short term and a more intermediate to long term level. Based on the cloud model, which is also called Ichimoku. It's a very popular model to analyze support and resistance and also prevailing trends, especially in fx. And we found it really very relevant for Bitcoin and it does show that key support in that sort of mid to high 80s range. As long as that support holds, the longer term uptrend is technically intact. The catch is that that long term uptrend has lost enough upside momentum to suggest that we're likely to see a shift even in Q1 where it enters more of a trading range or even makes a lower high and therein enters a bear cycle. But from a short term perspective, the proximity of the support is somewhat compelling because you have some signs of improved momentum near this support area. And ideally as a buyer you'd want to add exposure close to A support level that gives you a well defined risk threshold that you can watch. And ideally we see this momentum continue to improve with that breakout above the 50 day moving average.
- [05:30]
B
Bring this home for me. Talk to me about how we can look at this class cloud and predict maybe what's going to happen a little bit longer term. You just mentioned that we potentially go into a bear cycle. Just talk to me a little bit more about that.
- [05:42]
A
Yeah, we have no way to predict it, but the indicators do show that the uptrend has deteriorated. Our call is for a short term relief rally, something more than what we've already seen off of that kind of November December stabilization. So we're looking for near term upside in the coming weeks and that to us is tradable. So we have been recommending short term positions in Bitcoin to take advantage of this relief rally. But as soon as the indicators start to deteriorate, we would be pretty quick to reduce that exposure if it's opportunistic as opposed to a long term holding because of these signs of exhaustion that we're seeing on the monthly charts. So our resistance levels can help inform where that relief rally might meet resistance, of course, and roll over. And there's a couple minor levels between here and 100,000, but the more important level in our work, and that's also defined by that cloud model, is closer to 105,000. So 105,000 is what we have in our mind as a reasonable upside objective for a relief rally. And then we'll have to reevaluate our indicators at that time.
- [06:52]
B
Switching over to ETH now, ether also holding above its 50 day moving average, nearer $3,000. Talk to me about what we're seeing there.
- [07:01]
A
Well, we've seen stabilization in ether alongside Bitcoin and they've had a pretty balanced relative performance for a couple of months now. So we're not seeing a big risk on move really, which tends to benefit ether relative to Bitcoin. It's just been more stabilization both in ether and the ratio against Bitcoin. We do think that the bias is higher here in the near term for ether as well, and that the stochastic oscillator, which we track for or overbought oversold indications, has turned up alongside Bitcoin. So those stochastics are supporting a bigger relief rally for both and that would be in falling with the improved short term momentum since the stabilization began. And yet, just like with Bitcoin, we are a little bit suspicious as to the sustainability of that relief rally. Because there has been enough deterioration on the monthly indicators that has us more in kind of risk management mode here. Support is pretty close to current levels for ether that the cloud model is there to bolster the downdraft. And then on the upside, you could arrive at an objective in the kind of 3500-3600 area as somewhere that you could see those overbought conditions return. So that's what we'll be watching. But for right now, both of them look like they're going to forge higher. And it's unusual to see that when equity market benchmarks are going lower. So that's what we have to reconcile because it does look like the equity market has a bit more risk.
- [08:33]
B
Talk to me a little bit about that convergence or I guess that divergence between crypto assets and the equity markets right now. What is that telling you about where we are?
- [08:44]
A
Well, it is pretty unusual to see them diverge in absolute terms. So we don't know exactly what could be the driver of that. It's increased risk of being wrong on one or the other, either the S&P 500 or Bitcoin. But there are certainly scenarios that would make it make sense, and maybe Venezuela and what's going on there is one of them. So we can't really get to that answer by looking at the charts, of course, but it is something that makes you think a little bit. And our indicators, to us are the most important things to track and they do point higher. So we're just going to respect that and see what comes from the geopolitical situation to support it.
- [09:27]
B
If we turn away from Bitcoin and ETH and take a look at the altcoin market, what. What are you seeing?
- [09:34]
A
I'd say we. We've seen a loss of downside momentum for many of the altcoins relative to Bitcoin. It may be early stages here, but their underperformance that we saw a few months ago, when it really began, does seem to have alleviated to some degree. And our rotational work suggests that we'll see the rotations continue to move in favor of altcoins over the intermediate term. So that could be a time frame of maybe three to four months, or that we see that outperformance really manifest itself. So that's what we're watching as it stands, the stablecoins have had relative performance and anything related to them, so that that's where the relative strength has been. But we think ether could emerge as a relative outperformer. If we do see this kind of risk on move at a very minimum.
- [10:25]
B
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