Markets Outlook – Analyst Targets Relief Rally, Is $105K Bitcoin On The Horizon?

CoinDesk | January 12, 2026 Host: Jen Senasi
Guest: Katie Stockton (Founder & Managing Partner, Fairlead Strategies)

Episode Overview

This episode of Markets Outlook focuses on the outlook for Bitcoin, Ether, and the broader crypto market as 2026 kicks off. Host Jen Senasi is joined by technical analyst Katie Stockton to dissect price action, technical levels, asset correlations, and emerging trends among altcoins and NFTs. The discussion zeroes in on why Bitcoin is no longer seen as a classic safe haven, key support/resistance marks, and what could define the months ahead for digital assets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Safe Haven Status & Market Correlations

• Bitcoin's “Risk Asset” Role (00:00–03:55):
  • Stockton notes Bitcoin’s loss of the traditional “safe haven” status, contrasting its current behavior with that of gold and silver, both of which are hitting new highs.
  • While gold has moved “parabolically higher,” Bitcoin and crypto markets have shown high volatility and decoupled behavior.
  • Quote [A, 00:00]:
    “We don't have that safe haven characteristic right now from the way [Bitcoin’s] trading as an asset, but we do have an asset that's trading differently from the other asset classes. And that to me is opportunity.”
  • Stockton frames this divergence as a positive for portfolio diversification, identifying opportunity in the lack of correlation.

2. Technical Analysis of Bitcoin

• Key Support Levels (03:55–05:30):

  • Bitcoin broke above its 50-day moving average, but has since retreated.
  • The mid-to-high $80,000s ($86,000–$88,000) is identified as a critical support zone, backed up by the Ichimoku “cloud model.”
  • Quote [A, 04:10]:
    “As long as that support holds, the longer term uptrend is technically intact.”
  • Stockton warns, however, that the uptrend has “lost enough upside momentum” to suggest a shift to range-bound/go sideways or even a lower high—hinting at bear cycle risk within Q1.

• Relief Rally & Resistance Targets (05:30–06:51):

  • Stockton foresees a “short term relief rally” as intermediate term stabilization gives way to near-term upside.
  • She advocates short-term Bitcoin positions to benefit from this rally but urges risk reduction if indicators deteriorate.
  • Primary resistance/objective for the relief rally is ~$105,000, with “a couple minor levels” before that.
  • Quote [A, 05:42]:
    “105,000 is what we have in our mind as a reasonable upside objective for a relief rally. And then we’ll have to reevaluate our indicators at that time.”

3. Ether and the Broader Crypto Market

• ETH Technicals (06:51–08:32):
  • Ether is also holding above its 50-day MA, around $3,000, and has stabilized alongside Bitcoin.
  • The stochastic oscillator has turned up for both BTC and ETH, supporting prospects for a “bigger relief rally.”
  • Stockton, however, is “a little bit suspicious as to the sustainability” of the rally due to mixed longer-term signals.
  • For Ether, the first upside objective is $3,500–$3,600, where overbought signals may come into play.
  • Quote [A, 07:01]:
    “For right now, both of them look like they’re going to forge higher. And it’s unusual to see that when equity market benchmarks are going lower.”

4. Divergence from Equity Markets & Geopolitics

• Unusual Divergence (08:32–09:27):
  • Stockton calls out the rare disconnect between crypto and equities, noting increased risk for those betting strongly on one side.
  • Geopolitical flare-ups (e.g., Venezuela) may be relevant but can't be conclusively tied to chart trends.
  • Quote [A, 08:44]:
    “It is pretty unusual to see them diverge... There are certainly scenarios that would make it make sense, and maybe Venezuela and what’s going on there is one of them.”

5. Altcoins & Rotational Trends

• Altcoin Potential (09:27–10:24):
  • Loss of downside momentum in altcoins versus Bitcoin is detected; their “underperformance... does seem to have alleviated.”
  • Stockton’s rotational analysis sees potential outperformance by altcoins in the 3–4 months ahead, with ether poised as a likely standout if a risk-on move materializes.
  • Stablecoins have shown recent relative strength.

6. NFT Spotlight: Pudgy Penguins

• NFT Brand Growth (00:26, 10:24):
  • Pudgy Penguins highlighted as a leading NFT brand this cycle, evolving into a “multi-vertical consumer platform” with $13 million in retail sales across Walmart, Target, and Walgreens, as per CoinDesk research.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Bitcoin Opportunity, Not “Safe Haven”
  Katie Stockton [00:00]:
  “We don't have that safe haven characteristic right now... but we do have an asset that's trading differently... that to me is opportunity.”

• Support is Key to Trend Intactness
  Katie Stockton [04:10]:
  “As long as that support holds, the longer-term uptrend is technically intact.”

• Relief Rally Objective
  Katie Stockton [05:42]:
  “105,000 is what we have in our mind as a reasonable upside objective for a relief rally.”

• Skepticism About Trend Sustainability
  Katie Stockton [07:01]:
  “We are a little bit suspicious as to the sustainability of that relief rally... there has been enough deterioration on the monthly indicators.”

• Altcoins May Rotate into Outperformance
  Katie Stockton [09:34]:
  “Our rotational work suggests that we’ll see the rotations continue to move in favor of altcoins over the intermediate term... that could be a time frame of maybe three to four months.”

Important Timestamps

• 00:00–02:33: Bitcoin vs. gold/silver – market correlations, safe haven debate
• 03:55–06:51: Bitcoin technicals: support, resistance, relief rally targets
• 06:51–08:32: Ethereum analysis, upside objectives, skepticism on rally longevity
• 08:32–09:27: Crypto/equities divergence, geopolitical musings
• 09:27–10:24: Altcoin trend shift, rotational analysis
• 00:26, 10:24: NFT market highlight – Pudgy Penguins in retail

Summary

Katie Stockton provides a clear-eyed technical assessment of the crypto market: while the safe haven narrative is faltering for Bitcoin, technicals indicate potential for a relief rally up to $105,000. Ether shows similar conditions, though in both cases she cautions about sustainability. The episode highlights a rare divergence between crypto and equity benchmarks and predicts a possible swing in favor of altcoins over the next few months. Pudgy Penguins is showcased as a standout NFT-to-retail success story, underlining the continued evolution and broadening of the crypto market beyond just coins.